There are two new state polls from Queensland, one compiled from three months’ worth of national surveying by Resolve Strategic and encompassing voting intention, the other a YouGov poll for the Courier-Mail which at the time of writing features only attitudinal results – but voting intention will presumably follow shortly, and indeed may have already done so by the time most of you read this.
The Resolve Strategic poll, published on the Brisbane Times website, has Labor down two points on the September-to-December result to 35%, the Liberal National Party down two to 33%, the Greens up one to 12%, One Nation up one to 7% and an all-purpose “independents” option up three to 10%. No two-party preferred is provided, but this could roughly be estimated at 53-47 in favour of Labor, although the large independent/others component makes extrapolation from the last election a little dubious. Annastasia Palaszczuk’s lead over David Crisafulli as preferred premier has narrowed from 42-30 to 39-31. The expansive field work period ran from January 17 to April 17, with an overall sample of 943.
The YouGov attitudinal findings are similar to results such surveys have produced lately whenever they were conducted: cost of living is by some distance deemed the most salient issue (64% rating it most or second most important), 50% rate themselves worse off than a year ago compared with 11% for better off and 39% for about the same; 38% expect it to get worse over the next year, compared with 19% for better and 43% for about the same. The accompanying reportage in the Courier-Mail says the LNP was favoured over Labor for managing hospitals and ambulances by 26% to 22%, and that “nearly 30 per cent of respondents blame the Palaszczuk government for rising prices”.
UPDATE: The voting intention results are 51-49 in favour of the Liberal National Party, following a 50-50 result at the previous poll in December, from primary votes of LNP 39% (up one), Labor 33% (down one), Greens 13% (steady), One Nation 10% (down one). Annastacia Palaszczuk has slumped eight points on preferred premier to 31%, but David Crisafulli is up only one to 29%, with uncommitted up seven to 40%. The LNP scores higher than Labor as best party to handle cost of living, health and youth crime, with Labor leading only delivering the Olympics. A question on “blame for the current cost of living situation” produces a fairly even spread among six available options, with global economic conditions leading on 25%. The result for the Palaszczuk government is 13.68% – I am unclear is to how the above mentioned Courier-Mail editorial came to put it at 30%.
Campbell Newman and his hopeless mob were turfed out in February 2015. He will be no more relevant to next years Qld election than Tony Abbott was to last years federal election.
It will take something extraordinary to happen for Labor to get a fourth term. The difficulty for Labor, in addition to the time factor and nightly ‘health horror’ stories on the commercial news networks, is that they are likely to get a reduced vote and reduced preference flows.
I therefore expect that the LNP will win in 2024. Hopefully it will be just a one term government like the last two. It is not as if they have any actual solutions to anything, or much talent. One thing they are doing is preselecting already in some seats.
Au contraire Fargo
I expect Labor to be in minority government after next election. I can’t see voters in urban areas swinging over to the LNP just to give them a go. Labor will lose seats in SE Q to Indies or Greens. I think urban voters now are more realistic about choices of government. The Opposition also don’t have the team to attract voters- they’re old and past their use-by date. Remember, to hold Government in Qld, you have to get a majority in the South East. The age demographics matter too. The LNP have to capture the young voter and can’t rely on the older age demographic always voting for them.
As for the “its time” meme, Victoria shows that, even with internal issues in the Government, and an anti- Labor media, good governance wins votes. Don’t write off Anna and her team so quickly.
“It will take something extraordinary to happen for Labor to get a fourth term.”
Labor won a fourth term in 2006. In a landslide.
And then a fifth term in 2009.
Not so extraordinary.
Oliver Sutton:
And both victories happened after a bunch of damaging scandals too.
Never underestimate the state LNP’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory