James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.
Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.
However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.
Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.
@Ven … they did.
They didn’t sack everyone, and didn’t do them all immediately but there was a pretty significant turnover of Dept’l secretaries and other senior appointments.
”
Regardless of who wins the blockbuster defamation battle between Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News and Dominion Voting Systems, the media titan and his cable news company have sustained serious damage and the blows are set to intensify next week as the trial begins, writes Elizabeth Knight.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-murdoch-brand-is-on-trial-as-dominion-pressure-escalates-20230413-p5d07o.html
”
I read an article some 20 years ago where the author mentioned how a woman rescued Murdoch financially when he was at the doorstep of bankruptcy some 30 odd years ago.
Who is going to save Murdoch now?
Ven
“ Why didn’t Albanese government do this at Federal level when they got elected in May, 2022?”
I can see why Albo wanted to be conciliatory at first, after four years of Morrison.
However I must agree that several blatant former government toadies should have gone. As a minimum, I think the careers of those associated with Robodebt should be ended ASAP. They failed their duty of care as public servants. Same with several responsible for defence bungles.
UK Cartoons:
Peter Brookes on #PrinceHarry #Spare #Coronation #KingsCoronation
Ben Jennings on the government’s response to junior doctor strikes
Andy Davey: An update on that – erm – Special Relationship that our media love to talk up. Biden and the little people #BidenVisit #Ireland#JoeBiden #POTUS #Ireland #BlackAndTans
Dave Brown on #JoeBiden #POTUS #Ireland #BlackAndTans
Christian Adams on #RishiSunack #TaxCuts #2024Election
Holdenhillbilly says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 8:19 am
US Supreme Court allows $6 billion in student loan debts to be canceled, possibly impacting up to 200,000 loans.
——————————————————
I hope our government with Greens support can enact the same here.
Bring back Denver Riggleman:
Riggleman served in the Air Force for 15 years.[7] After initially serving as an enlisted avionics technician, he received a commission and went on to serve as an intelligence officer.[5]
…
Farewell address
On December 11, 2020, Riggleman gave a farewell address on the floor of the House. He said his experience as an Air Force intelligence officer taught him “… the invaluable lesson of considering the source” when examining disinformation. He stated that “a well-instructed” and knowledgeable people are the pillars of a functional republic, and that “Those pillars are now being assaulted by disinformation and outlandish theories surrounding this presidential election.”
Riggleman added “As we transition to a new administration I implore all to consider the sources of information you receive, to fact check diligently”, he pleaded, asking his fellow Americans “to recognize that many bad actors who spread spurious and fantastical conspiracy theories under banners like QAnon, Kraken, ‘Stop the Steal, ‘Scamdemic’ and many other emotive terms and coded language are not disseminating information rooted in knowledge but with questionable motives and greed. They are rooted in misunderstanding, or fraud or in some cases, ignorance.”
He told “all those on the end of the disinformation fire hose” that “unbiased, fact-based information sustains our republic,” adding that “disinformation hinders our free exchange of ideas and creates super spreader digital viruses that create a fever of nonsense.” He asked his audience to remember that “people are more important than party” and that “pandering is a political sickness.”[25]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denver_Riggleman
Thanks muchly BK.
I’m still not seeing any wins for Dutton anywhere on the No vote yet, and no sense of momentum either.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/14/peter-dutton-accused-of-misrepresenting-locals-views-on-indigenous-voice-to-parliament
This part is particularly damning…
Lying liars lie.
”
Vensays:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 8:44 am
”
Regardless of who wins the blockbuster defamation battle between Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News and Dominion Voting Systems, the media titan and his cable news company have sustained serious damage and the blows are set to intensify next week as the trial begins, writes Elizabeth Knight.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-murdoch-brand-is-on-trial-as-dominion-pressure-escalates-20230413-p5d07o.html
”
I read an article some 20 years ago where the author mentioned how a woman rescued Murdoch financially when he was at the doorstep of bankruptcy some 30 odd years ago.
Who is going to save Murdoch now?
”
That woman’s name is Ann Lane
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/citizen-murdoch-buys-into-the-beautiful-game-1.192198
Old Spoke
Thanks, that is one of multiple instances Dutton has been caught out lying over the Voice.
Dutton is not a clever man. He is easily caught out.
On Rex Patrick’s missive, I am skeptical. I do not think there is an option to build Virginia SSNs in Australia on the table. It would conflict with too many US laws.
Have a good day all
Again – Kathryn Campbell – who was Secretary of Human Services and oversaw Robodebt, and was Sec of DFAT (fuck knows why) at the election was one of the first to be axed.
Although she was still given an “advisory” role at Defence.
The only Secretary left standing I still don’t get why they’re still there is Pezzullo at Home Affairs. The rest are not seen as overly political.
Socrates says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 8:41 am
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. There is a lot of flak flying Dutton’s way and deservedly so. He has been caught out lying multiple times already.
The No campaign is a bad strategic decision, being carried out badly.
Dutton’s personal stocks will not be very high after this.
This cartoon was deadly accurate.
_____________
I’m going to join the ranks of the Slightly Nervous Nellies.
Sometimes racism like that currently peddled by Dutton works, sometimes it doesn’t.
“African Gangs” is an example of it not working.
A positive for me out of the coverage so far is the NT Police Minister calling on Dutton to supply any evidence he may have for his allegations to police. Put up or shut up. I get the impression the calling out has gained some traction.
Vensays:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 8:17 am
_____________________
Performance was not as bad as they were making out.
Say one thing in opposition, another when in Govt.
Parliamentary hearing on the Voice Referendum Bill now getting underway…
https://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Watch_Read_Listen
Annika Smethurst tells us how the Victorian government is warning people to expect a bit of a horror state budget.
_____________________
Thatcher
The trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.
The Liberal politician vs the the person on the ground:
From Guardian updates:
TK
“The player way out in front on this years NBA ratings is white. Chap coming second is also white.”
You mean MVP?
Being a NBA fan, the true MVP this year should be Joel Embiid
Happy Tamil New Year. Happy Puthandu.
Snappy Tom
“ I’m going to join the ranks of the Slightly Nervous Nellies.
Sometimes racism like that currently peddled by Dutton works, sometimes it doesn’t.
“African Gangs” is an example of it not working.
A positive for me out of the coverage so far is the NT Police Minister calling on Dutton to supply any evidence he may have for his allegations to police. Put up or shut up. I get the impression the calling out has gained some traction.”
———————————
Agreed, I made a similar comment last night. It’s the responsibility of the media to call out lies, not just report them simply because a leader articulates them. Speaking truth to power is the common refrain and so it should be.
Joel Embiid is leading
https://www.libertyballers.com/2023/4/11/23678562/joel-embiid-mvp-vote-tracking-favorite-nikola-jokic-giannis-antetokounmpo
Somehow I don’t think Peter Dutton will ever get this accolade..
Albanese one of Time’s most influential people 2023
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has made it onto Time’s list of the world’s most influential people 2023.
Justin Trudeau, the prime minister of Canada, writes that Albanese is a “symbol of hope and inspiration.”
Progressives around the world are united in the idea that we should leave no one behind. The idea that no matter who you are or where you come from, you should have every chance to succeed in life. Few politicians embody that journey as Anthony Albanese does.
From growing up in public housing to taking office last spring as Australia’s new Prime Minister, he is a symbol of hope and inspiration. He works to lift up and amplify the voices of those who need to be heard from, particularly Indigenous peoples.
His government supports those who need it most, believes that we need to take ambitious climate action, and unwaveringly supports democracy in the face of unprecedented threat.
In a world where people are increasingly uncertain about what the future holds for them and their families, it’s easy for politicians to sow fear and division. To choose the path of hope and opportunity takes immense courage, and that courage lives within Anthony Albanese.
Holdenhillbilly @ #1393 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 8:19 am
That’s a good outcome.
Unfortunately it isn’t the $400 billion the president is trying to forgive. Republican’s congress have said that it was a budget measure so couldn’t come from the president.
Now if we could get the nearly 3 million Australians almost $70billion HECS debts cancelled wouldn’t that be great, too late for me though.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/13/us/supreme-court-student-loans.html?searchResultPosition=1
Taylormade @ #1414 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 9:23 am
So the Morrison/Joyce government were a Socialist government?
Cronussays:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 8:50 am
“I’m still not seeing any wins for Dutton anywhere on the No vote yet, and no sense of momentum either.”
Some more polling across the spectrum is needed before making a judgement about the outcome of the referendum for the voice.
How many more “duttons” out there in the wide brown land ?
I believe that this referendum will be closer than imagined.
And the stance taken by the daughter of Bess Price, Jacinta Price is the evidence for concern.
Powerful testimony by Pat Anderson and Megan Davis on the Uluṟu process
‘We don’t want to be politicians, we want to live and work in our communities – we want a voice TO Canberra, not a ‘Canberra Voice’
Old Spoke @ #1407 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 8:55 am
And then to characterise the elders he had spoken to as being against it. A lie upon a lie.
‘Ven says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 8:17 am
”
The newly elected Labor government has sacked its most senior transport official, Rob Sharp, just hours after it announced a whole-scale review of a Sydney metro network that Premier Chris Minns said needed “rescuing”. Michael McGowan reports that the secretary of Transport for NSW is one of a number of department bosses sacked, as the new government swings the axe across the public service.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/minns-swings-the-axe-as-department-bosses-sacked-20230413-p5d0cg.html
”
Why didn’t Albanese government do this at Federal level when they got elected in May, 2022?’
——————————————————
The habit of incoming governments sacking senior secretaries has had a pernicious impact on the APS when it comes to frank and fearless advice.
Labor promised during the election to stop doing this. And it has. If there is some sort of due process that leads to some individuals being sacked for incompetence, corruption or political partiality, then that is a whole other thing.
You can’t have it both ways.
Taylormade @ #1036 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 9:23 am
It says everything about your sad, little, warped mind that you actually think that quoting Thatcher is a worthwhile thing.
”Thatcher
The trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.”
Right wing Governments spend to benefit people, institutions and causes of which they approve and which will likely bring them votes. No one asks them where the money’s coming from.
Non-Right Governments a.k.a. “Socialists” try to spend money where it’s needed, often benefiting institutions and causes the Right don’t like and people who would never vote for them. The Right hate that. They and their megaphones bellow loud and long “where’s the money coming from”?
The trouble with Thatcherism is you eventually run out of public assets.
Smethurst lost the election – sour grapes time.
Taylormade says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 9:23 am
Annika Smethurst tells us how the Victorian government is warning people to expect a bit of a horror state budget.
_____________________
Thatcher
The trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.
____________
“Running out of other people’s money” was never a problem for those great socialists Reagan, Bush jnr, Trump, Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison…
It’s really only a (reported) problem when Democrats, Labor or Labour are in power – but, nice try TM.
How’s your recovery going?
the trouble with pissing on Margaret Thatcher’s grave is that you eventually run out of piss
Haha, I tried to do some searches on the whether or not the Australian government is losing money on the HECS debts. Found this news.com.au article from March 2022 that the government should cancel S3 tax cuts in favour of cancelling HECS debts.
Now correct my memory, weren’t the Libs in charge at that point?
https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/costs/australia-encouraged-to-wipe-student-debt-over-legislating-stage-three-tax-cuts/news-story/08b0f91497dc9f98f0bf5ed4b626706d
kodea
the trouble with pissing on Margaret Thatcher’s grave is that you eventually run out of piss
Too much piss is never enough.
How many Prime Ministers have had people spontaneously cheering in the streets when they died?
Geetroit @ #1430 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 9:59 am
… Dominic Perrottet.
Sydney Water was a privatisation too far for the electorate.
First he came for the water treatment plants … eventually, as the figures for the cost blowouts on the tunnel and metro projects has shown in recent days, he would have had to come for the lot.
I wish Taylormade would stop whinging about the Liberal’s trillion ‘back-in-black’ debt.
How many prime ministers prompted ‘Ding Dong, The Witch is Dead’ back into the BBC Top 40?
‘Mostly Interested says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 9:47 am
Holdenhillbilly @ #1393 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 8:19 am
US Supreme Court allows $6 billion in student loan debts to be canceled, possibly impacting up to 200,000 loans.
That’s a good outcome.
Unfortunately it isn’t the $400 billion the president is trying to forgive. Republican’s congress have said that it was a budget measure so couldn’t come from the president.
Now if we could get the nearly 3 million Australians almost $70billion HECS debts cancelled wouldn’t that be great, too late for me though.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/13/us/supreme-court-student-loans.html?searchResultPosition=1‘
———————————
So everyone who does not do a uni degree gets to subsidize those with a uni degree who end up earning more than average because they do have a uni degree.
I am sure that every graduate debtor would say that that is a fine thing.
Birmo, with a leg on each side of the razor, is in the No AND the Yes crosshairs. Yesterday it was Pauline. Today it is Jim.
People with university degrees don’t necessarily earn more than those without them these days.
goll says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 9:48 am
Cronussays:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 8:50 am
“I’m still not seeing any wins for Dutton anywhere on the No vote yet, and no sense of momentum either.”
Some more polling across the spectrum is needed before making a judgement about the outcome of the referendum for the voice.
How many more “duttons” out there in the wide brown land ?
I believe that this referendum will be closer than imagined.
And the stance taken by the daughter of Bess Price, Jacinta Price is the evidence for concern.
____________
I note the relative paucity of polling in the lead up to the NSW election, as complained about by posters on that thread.
Guess what – all the NSW polling was bad for the Coalition! (So, we didn’t get a lot of it).
The Voice is different: only the Murdochracy and Dutton oppose it. We may see relatively few Voice Newspolls – unless they can spin the results as “Voice support tumbling!”
Other media outlets may behave more normally in publishing polls.
It is interesting and depressing that the realistic options before us are “unhinged Right” or “normality”. As has been noted earlier today, Howard really did shift the range of acceptable political discourse to the Right.
I much prefer the 80s…when Howard was an unmitigated failure and the Right lost control of the public agenda and didn’t know when they’d get it back.
Taylormade: “The trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.”
cough cough franking credits cough cough negative gearing cough cough capital gains discount cough cough.
Today marks another day in which Dutton and Bandt are blocking the construction of 30,000 houses including 4,000 ear-marked for the victims of domestic violence.
30,000 houses at 2 per house is additional housing for 60,000 people.
Dutton just does ‘No! because.
But why is Bandt ensuring that many tens of thousands of people continue to suffer? He is doing it for their own good? Because his inner urbs nimbies do not want to have their property values debased by housos? What?
Mostly Interested says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 10:03 am
Haha, I tried to do some searches on the whether or not the Australian government is losing money on the HECS debts. Found this news.com.au article from March 2022 that the government should cancel S3 tax cuts in favour of cancelling HECS debts.
Now correct my memory, weren’t the Libs in charge at that point?
https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/costs/australia-encouraged-to-wipe-student-debt-over-legislating-stage-three-tax-cuts/news-story/08b0f91497dc9f98f0bf5ed4b626706d
____________
That article never happened. It is an unarticle. You know it makes sense.
glad brendon murphy is finaly gone but it is very dissapointing the worst burocrat mike pezzullo is still in home affairs desbite his departments poor management failing to tell his ministr about end of naro contract keeping justin bassi as director of aspi desbite him being duttons captains pick and chief of staff to our worst ever foreign minister marise payne the liberal stacked aspi board with members with little relivant expirence john anderson who was deputy pm but inministrys relateing to agriculture michael keanon who was a very junier minister in security
Megan Davis says IPSOS polling they have commissioned is showing 80% of First Nations support the Voice
is ;pezzulo and cathryn campbell untuchable only exblenation is theg government is woried they will undermine labor is sacked