Click here for full display of New South Wales state election results.
Click here for full display of Aston by-election results.
I’m continuing to update the results pages a couple of times a day, and thought a post might be in order for those wanting a focused discussion on the results. Obviously the result in Aston is not in doubt: postal votes continue to trickle in, and while they have swung less forcefully than election day and pre-poll votes, they have done nothing to dispel an impression of Labor accounting for a 2.8% Liberal margin with a swing of between 6% and 7%.
In New South Wales, the only seat that remains in doubt is Ryde, which would leave Labor a seat short of a majority with 46 seats out of 93 if they won, and put the Coalition on 36 in the seemingly more likely event that the Liberals retain their present lead. The Liberals hold a 232 vote lead on the raw two-candidate preferred count, but since the Electoral Commission is only counting primary votes on absents and enrolment/provisionals, it is not possible to say exactly where things stand. Absents have been weak for the Liberals and strong for the Greens, so I would estimate it at between 80 and 90 votes. Since the only outstanding votes are postals and these have been favouring the Liberals by 55-45, this seems more likely to widen than to narrow. Labor’s best chance is for anomalies to be discovered when the distribution of preferences is conducted next week. UPDATE: As Antony Green notes in comments, since all ballot papers are data entered in the check count, this seems especially unlikely, although “there can be questions over whether there has been an error in the batch entry of ballot papers”.
In Ryde, yeah – the Greens tend to be the main third party in metro seats. In seats with a weak Green vote and strong Shooters / One Nation / etc vote, CPV benefits the coalition. (Example: Upper Hunter, which would never have been marginal under CPV. Goulburn would be safer for the Libs as well.) With there being decent-sized minor parties on both sides of the spectrum, there’s not much overall benefit to either side – it’s just a slightly different group of seats that end up marginal. Labor might’ve won Ryde but lost Monaro… swings and roundabouts.
Labor certainly have done much worse on postals and pre polls than they did on actual Election Day votes, so my assumption would be that the Minns victory was achieved only in the last few days before March 25. If the election had been held a week earlier, Perrottett would have been reelected
You can’t make that assumption Evan. Prepoll and postal voters tend to be significantly older and more rural than the general population. There’s a well established bias towards the Coalition in these demographics. This is taken into account in all credible prediction models.
i think evan is mostly right i think labor benafited in the last few days and last couple weeks from the campaign onstopping privatisation especialy sydney water maybi minns should have focused on this more i think it was a mistake to run a positive campaign negative campaignswork better there was a lot of imformation labor could have highlited like pork barelling train delays
not sure if pre pole voters are more conservative but they would be more ingaged as a lot of voters do not realise an election is on until the day of
Labor is in Gov’t and I think that’s all that really matters. They’ve got 4 years to show what they can do and win over more voters, a Labor headwind for the LNP as it were.
They’ve got a huge base of ultra safe and safe seats so can concentrate on the marginals for a solid majority.
Meanwhile the Libs need to battle the Teals and protect their own marginal seats. To think they need to throw resources at Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater among others.
Labor is in Gov’t and I think that’s all that really matters. They’ve got 4 years to show what they can do and win over more voters, a Labor headwind for the LNP as it were.
They’ve got a huge base of ultra safe and safe seats so can concentrate on the marginals for a solid majority.
Meanwhile the Libs need to battle the Teals and protect their own marginal seats. To think they need to throw resources at Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater among others.
There are, of course, other factors, but the simple explanation as to why Labor performed relatively poorly on pre-poll and postal votes is that the majority of the swing did indeed happen on polling day, not so much before.
@Aaron – Oh the irony:
“ i think it was a mistake to run a positive campaign negative campaignswork better there was a lot of imformation labor could have highlited like pork barelling train delays”
__________
THAT was the McKay-Searle strategy from late 2019: the one that Walt-Minns-Walton-Hayes used to destabilise her leadership: create a wall of sound, even if it was unpopular at the time.
All the ‘positive stuff’ was watered down rebranding of the hard work that shadow ministers, especially Adam, had done since 2015 to lay that foundation.
Look, I think in the end that Chris proved to be a much better ‘frontman’ than Jodie & probably far more adept at the sort of Aikido moves that found favour with the voters on election day – folk were genuinely impressed with the fairly clean and positive campaign that both leaders ran. But surely, as you suggest … there were massive downsides to all of this.
Also, it’s pretty harsh criticising a candidate like Mick Maroney when he was only preselected with four weeks to go. Whilst Nanva successfully pulled off that sort of shit in – for example Parramatta in the last federal election – it is a high risk move and one to be used as an exception and not the norm. Mick i think has all the makings of a good Labor candidate in Sydney’s south eastern / ‘shire’ suburbs but without a history in local government, community activism or the like, he needed at least a four month campaign to get him exposure in an electorate where he really wasn’t exactly a born and bred local.
The fact is, despite the late swing, Labor didn’t do enough to sandbag in its victory into a clear majority by creating that ‘wall of sound’ of protest against the dumpster fire of a government that the LNP had devolved into. Some of that is due to Chris’s personal style (which was at the end of the day clearly a net positive) but most of it was due to the fact that everybody on the front bench was similarly kept on a tight leash and also the party machine wasn’t prepared to mobilise behind a negative campaign.
There was certainly a role for someone like Adam Searle to put the stick about on these issues, were he on the front bench and tasked with that role. Moreover, Adam does this sort of stuff with a very affable manner. Still lethal though, especially with all that material to work with.
Losing all 9 doubtful seats in late counting speaks to an organisational catastrophe, frankly.
Labor in the end has lost Holsworthy by only 300 votes, what might have been if they had preselected the candidate far earlier than 4 weeks before the election?
Andrew Earlwood: mate, good summary above, I concur with the argument that it is due to Minns Labor are in minority government, organisationally Bob Nanva did a shocking job.
Liberals in NSW should have lost far more than 7 or 8 seats.
Andy the r@t hard at work I see stewing in the bitters . If it’s not exactly his way – must be bad. Sad.
What is the point of you, L’arse?
You’re always bitter . Can’t you just be happy that Labor and Minns won for once Andy?
What was it like a 6% 2PP swing and not good enough for you. If it had been 10% you’d be the one saying it should have been 12.
Lars – earl wood is upset the Renos on the war room didn’t get approved.
And the fact that all the guys he makes flats whites for in the criminal law precinct no longer are in the caucus.
Earlwood – word to the wise. You won. Be happy mate.
It’s pretty obvious L’arse: a 6% swing should have comfortably delivered majority government. It’s all well and good to get carried away in the euphoria of the moment, but I’ll leave that to groupies like C@t.
Oh yes, ‘moderate’, I’ll take your advice and slip into the easy torpor where the party starts to believe its own bullshit again. Just like 2008. … no thanks.
well earlwoods mate adam sealrle might be back as a barister or he couldjoin the tribunal with his mate looks like henskins will be liberal leader he wont last long he has no profile
Seats Labor had to win, which it did win: Parramatta, Penrith, Riverstone, Camden, East Hills, Leppington, Heathcote.
A seat which to me was a surprise Labor pickup: South Coast. According to one poll bludger poster, supposedly there was no Labor campaign at all and the candidate was lacklustre – not borne out by the actual result.
Monaro is an interesting one – would Terry Campese have won the seat if he’d remained the Labor candidate? Probably not, I suspect. Bringing back Steve Whan out of retirement was a smart move.
Heartbreaking misses for Labor – Ryde, Terrigal, Miranda(albeit Terrigal and Miranda probably were never target seats, the big swings to Labor in those two were due more to the terrific candidates and their hard work).
Seats where Labor underperformed – Upper Hunter, Holsworthy, Oatley, Tweed, Goulburn
A seat where Labor overperformed and why were people so worried about it before the election? Kogarah.
A seat where there were too many resources put into it for no reason really – Balmain.
“ Seats where Labor underperformed – Upper Hunter, Holsworthy, Oatley, Tweed, Goulburn”
I only put Holsworthy on that list. The others, especially Upper Hunter and Goulburn, are unicorn seats for labor.
Oatley suffers from similar demographic challenges as Drummoyne these days, but I wonder what a good first term labor government might yield in four years: alla a Wran/Carr/Andrews style sophomore swing.
Winston Hills is another seat that Labor will be disappointed just fell away in final counting and should be added to the targets.
I also think that Kiama will return to Labor once Gareth Ward is no longer a political factor; and Terrigal looks very promising for another tilt.
I certainly think that there is a pathway for Labor to get above 50 seats next time.
Andy” “I certainly think that there is a pathway for Labor to get above 50 seats next time.” ….. But only if Labor listens exactly to Andy’s advice and prescriptions on what to do.
Andrew Earlwood: good points above, agree with you about Kiama, it’ll go back to Labor when Ward retires or if he’s convicted of the charges he’s accused of.
Labor weren’t far behind in Oatley, I agree the demographics aren’t helpful to them.
Lake Macquarie is probably a Labor pickup when Greg Piper retires, unless there’s another independent well known in that area.
Equally if Labor/Minns shits the bed in its first term, which is even money if Park gets offside with the Doctors and don’t get the trains sorted; Libs win back all those seated.
Strathfield is one I’d look at too which is a long termer for the Coalition on proviso they select someone of Korean or Chinese background, they can definitely make inroads against JYL (who I think will become progressively bored in this seat whilst still living in the North Shore).
Summer Hill is a 10 year proposition but doable if the ground work with Inner West Council is there particularly in the Ashfield ward. This would need a perfect storm though but definitely a focus on small business and law and order would resonate well. As break-ins, illegal dumping and graffiti have become progressively worse. Haylen is vulnerable outside the Anglo bubble she has cloistered herself in around Dulwich Hill.
Diminishing returns in the Upper House for both major parties.
i dont think wistonhills was even close the liberals will struggle in joe haylins seat therewent backwards at the local cowncil elections loosing all there seats the greens would chalinge labor hear the liberals have no chance maybi the candadate sameer pandey was not very good the candadate for hawkes seat nelly won and may have had more support not even shore what pandeys job is there is very little imformation about him is terigle winable though it was a suprise result there maybi with right candadate labor can win hear was a safe liberal seat until michael hollind the member
rthe weak spot now is upper house if labor wants a strong team they need to get rid off primrose and donnoly what is happining with Scott farloe will he still get mclaron jones vackintsy last thing we need is a person who is only in parliament thanks to alex hawke
i dont think maroney will run again not shure what labor was thinking most off the seat is based in liverpool and theypick yes he is a swim coach and school teacher but hardly any one would know he had somthing to do with triaflons som body from liverpool would have dun a better job
Evan says:
Sunday, April 9, 2023 at 11:55 am
Labor in the end has lost Holsworthy by only 300 votes, what might have been if they had preselected the candidate far earlier than 4 weeks before the election?
Andrew Earlwood: mate, good summary above, I concur with the argument that it is due to Minns Labor are in minority government, organisationally Bob Nanva did a shocking job.
Liberals in NSW should have lost far more than 7 or 8 seats.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
I would put money on it that had Minns, Nanva, et al even mentioned the word Gladys once, they would have won a majority.
HELLO !
dont think so nanva could have dun better holesworvey even ride minnss should have viseted more camden was a suprise
wonder when minns wil anowse parliamentary secretaries
Future NSW Election Speculation.
I have just started to create a post-Election Pendulum for NSW, based upon the current, NOT Final, counting.
The ALP currently holds 6 seats with a less than 5% margin: Penrith (1.6), East Hill (1.8), Monaro (2.4%), Camden (2.9), Riverstone & South Coast (3.7).
Their next closest marginal seat is The Entrance (7.8).
The LNP hold 14 seats with a less than 5% margin: Ryde (0.1*), Holsworthy (0.4*), Pittwater (0.8*), Oatley (0.9*), Drummoyne (1.2*), Terrigal (1.2*), Goulburn (1.3), Winston Hills (1.8), Miranda (2.3*), Willoughby (2.5), Tweed (3.6), Upper Hunter (3.9), Epping (4.7*) & Manly (4.7*).
Some of these could also be in danger from a well-known and resourced community candidate.
A star means a substantial margin drop, >than 5%, compared with 2019.
There are 4 seats which are held by Independents / Greens which could be vulnerable if there is a swing towards an able, confident, competent and steady Government.
These are: Kiama (0.8*), Balmain (1.8*), Wollondilly*) and Wakehurst (4.4*).
Three seats, or more, for majority government are well within reach in 2027.
Labor has asked for a recount in Ryde.
https://twitter.com/danutakozaki/status/1645667160369545216
And it could work. In the Victorian 2018 election, the seat of Ripon was initially won by Labor by a similar amount, but a recount flipped it to Liberal.
It looks like another 500 or so postals have been added to the Aston count, and these have added another 25 votes to Labor’s lead (now 36 ahead on the postals!). It is quite noticeable that the later-counted postals have been much better for Labor in this by-election than the earlier counted postal votes.
hopefuly the recount works laine seems like a typical yung liberal staffer
Finding the theory that Labor had some late-breaking swing on the Saturday that they didn’t have on the Friday at pre-poll a little hard to accept.
A more plausible theory is that conservative voters still pre-poll and vote postal in higher numbers
, and that the early vote is still not representative of the electorate. Similarly, the vote on polling day is not representative of the electorate . We just need to split the difference rather than believe in some overnight phenomenon that took hold on 25 March.
New thread.