Click here for full display of New South Wales state election results.
Click here for full display of Aston by-election results.
I’m continuing to update the results pages a couple of times a day, and thought a post might be in order for those wanting a focused discussion on the results. Obviously the result in Aston is not in doubt: postal votes continue to trickle in, and while they have swung less forcefully than election day and pre-poll votes, they have done nothing to dispel an impression of Labor accounting for a 2.8% Liberal margin with a swing of between 6% and 7%.
In New South Wales, the only seat that remains in doubt is Ryde, which would leave Labor a seat short of a majority with 46 seats out of 93 if they won, and put the Coalition on 36 in the seemingly more likely event that the Liberals retain their present lead. The Liberals hold a 232 vote lead on the raw two-candidate preferred count, but since the Electoral Commission is only counting primary votes on absents and enrolment/provisionals, it is not possible to say exactly where things stand. Absents have been weak for the Liberals and strong for the Greens, so I would estimate it at between 80 and 90 votes. Since the only outstanding votes are postals and these have been favouring the Liberals by 55-45, this seems more likely to widen than to narrow. Labor’s best chance is for anomalies to be discovered when the distribution of preferences is conducted next week. UPDATE: As Antony Green notes in comments, since all ballot papers are data entered in the check count, this seems especially unlikely, although “there can be questions over whether there has been an error in the batch entry of ballot papers”.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the election results. The open thread for general discussion is here.
I’m delighted to read confirmation this morning that Greg Piper, the Independent member for Lake Macquarie, will be the new Speaker of the NSW parliament. He describes himself as “left-leaning and socially progressive”, and his voting record confirms that, so he’s a good fit for an ALP government. He’s highly regarded in the Hunter (and by me) and was just re-elected for a 5th term with a primary vote of close to 60%.
There is also the practical benefit for the new government that it will now need only 2 votes rather than 3 to get legislation through the lower house, out of the 12 available from the crossbench. So a great appointment in many respects.
How many postals are there to be counted in Ryde? I imagine this one might go to a recount.
Minns so far has slotted into the top job very effortlessly.
Around 1,200 more postals have been returned and await processing and counting. I’d be surprised if there is a re-count. All ballot papers are data entered at the check count in NSW and the distribution of preferences is done by computer so there are no errors in the distribution of preferences. There can be questions over whether there has been an error in the batch entry of ballot papers. Well organised scrutineers should be able to point to where they think there is a discrepancy and that batch may be re-checked. Any disputed ballot papers should have been isolated before the data entry.
Labor going for the oft suggested but seldom implemented trick of a minority government offering the speaker’s chair to an independent. I almost can’t believe it worked.
SA Labor unexpectedly formed Government in 2002, with the backing of an independent speaker (an ex-Liberal) and a wafer thin majority. It then held Government for 16 years.
NSW Labor’s position, comparatively, is much stronger, but the appointment of an independent as speaker is the correct one in the circumstances.
No doubt Labor also has half an eye on the upcoming trial of the Member for Kiama, which raises the possibility of a by-election in that seat during the current parliamentary term. There may also be others that come up over the next 4 years.
What if 37.1% primary is the new high water mark for Labor?
Carr got 42.68% primary in 2003. Albo hasn’t cracked 40% in one federal poll.
The Libs got 33% under Chikarovski in 2003 and 35.4% under Perrottet.
That suggests limited upside – maybe Labor could win the close ones next time but maybe south coast and Bega come home to the Libs too?
I wonder if Greg Piper has decided this will be his last term in parliament, and that has influenced his decision to accept the Speaker’s role. By 2027 he will have been in parliament 20 years, and will be nearly 70. Retiring as Speaker would be a nice way to go out. If that does happen, Labor would certainly fancy their chances of winning Lake Macquarie in 2027, unless another strong independent endorsed by Piper emerges.
Bega and South Coast are seats that were never historically strong for Labor, but demographic change has made them more favourable. They seem like the kind of seats that Labor will consolidate in, similar to the consolidation that has occured in Eden-Monaro over the past decade.
If Labor end up on 45, there are some clear targets that they will be going after next time around. Ryde, Holsworthy, Oatley and Terrigal will all be key battlegrounds.
The problem for the Coalition in this result is almost identical to the issue that led to Labor not getting a majority – the need for such a big 2PP margin to actually get a majority. The Liberals would need to win 11 seats on a 9.3% uniform swing to get majority government next time round. That would be a 2PP vote of 55.7%!! Labor would need a 0.7% swing to get the two extra seats needed for majority, a 2PP vote of around 54.3%.
Unless the major parties can get these high 2PP votes, minority governments will likely become more common here in NSW.
With Gareth Ward winning so comfortably, it makes me wonder what might represent normal behaviour in Kiama. Although innocent until proven guilty, you would, nevertheless, have thought that the charges laid against Ward would have created some unease amongst the denizens of Kiama; but apparently not .
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 10:04 am
What if 37.1% primary is the new high water mark for Labor?
Carr got 42.68% primary in 2003. Albo hasn’t cracked 40% in one federal poll
”
He cracked 40% in the real Aston poll that matters. Doesn’t that count to something Lars?
Ryde: Jordan Lane the Liberal candidate is 135 votes ahead, with 1000 postal votes left to count, thanks to Antony Green for his comment above.
Not alot of excitement post the election is there?
Spare a thought for Lyndal Howison .
To lose by less than 150 votes is a tough outcome.
In response to one of Lars’s posts above,the South Coast of NSW is trending Labor, in both federal and state politics.
im suprised piper fell for it this means he will have no influence speakers dont get a vote on bills surely he will be an improvement to garith Wardes friend Shelley hancock she was nsw worst speakerjhad no control over the chamber and would constantly attack labor members and be ooutraged when any one attacked ward who unfortunately is back in parliament suprised hoenig is local government minister
As said above, this is probably Greg Piper’s final term in parliament so the Speakership would be a good thing to top out his resume, and then Lake Macquarie will probably go back to Labor in 2027.
You’d assume Ron Hoenig would have been Labor’s pick for Speaker if Minns had a majority.
$100k a year top up for speaker is nice too.
Does Mr Piper get a private dining room like the LC President at least used to eg Max Willis?
how come evry body thought hoenig would be speaker was he promeised it do we have a list of minns parliamentary secretaries yet for upper house president most likely iva primrose or Buttigieg hopefuly primrose and donnelly wil leave upper house in 2023
Lars : “That suggests limited upside – maybe Labor could win the close ones next time but maybe south coast and Bega come home to the Libs too?”
_____________________
What makes you think that Bega and South Coast would suddenly swing to the Libs? Also I note the word “home”, as if the Liberals are entitled to these seats.
bega and south coast come home to libs this just shows whiy liberals are strugiling arround the country they think there intitled to seats looks at wendy lindsay and peter sigreaves still refusing to consed in east hills and camden
I have scoured the internet for a clip of Max Willis last day as President.
Having entertained some distinguished visitors in his private dining room, the honourable President returned to the chamber to preside over a motion to dismiss a judge.
Unfortunately Max became tired and emotional, so tired and emotional that he fell out of the chair. From memory, in the ensuing chaos the motion to dismiss the judge was lost.
Gotta love the bear pit
I have not been able to find the footage
I thought ‘come home’ simply signified returning after a journey, and was commonly used in political circles.
Whilst I agree South Coast and Bega will be tough for Lib to win back, the responses to Lars’ choice of words really are pernickety and suggest it’s more about the prior opinion of the one who used the words (having read this site a lot more than I’ve contributed, the pecking order is fairly clear).
so wonder who will be minns parliamentary secretaries not sure what max willis presidentsy of upper house in 1998 has much relivants today wonder who will be the new president pipper will be speaker
wranslide says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 1:01 pm
Not a lot of excitement post the election is there?
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
98.6 says :
I can see many Poll Bludgers are already bored and have resorted to which seats may change hands in 2027.
Here are some examples.
Lars says: That suggests limited upside – maybe Labor could win the close ones next time but maybe south coast and Bega come home to the Libs too?
Newcastle Moderate says: Labor would certainly fancy their chances of winning Lake Macquarie in 2027, unless another strong independent endorsed by Piper emerges.
Conor says : If Labor end up on 45, there are some clear targets that they will be going after next time around. Ryde, Holsworthy, Oatley and Terrigal will all be key battlegrounds.
Evan says: In response to one of Lars’s posts above, the South Coast of NSW is trending Labor, in both federal and state politics.
Evan also says :…………………….. and then Lake Macquarie will probably go back to Labor in 2027.
Simpson says: Lars , What makes you think that Bega and South Coast would suddenly swing to the Libs? Also I note the word “home”, as if the Liberals are entitled to these seats.
98.6 says : Now that’s what I call genuine hard core Poll Bludgers.
wranslide says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 1:01 pm
Not a lot of excitement post the election is there?
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98.6 says :
Only 4 years to go !
I’m sure all us Poll Bludgers would love to go back to the days when every state had elections every three years and no fixed time or date, just like the feds.
Qld was the last state to go to fixed four year terms in October 2020. I was real pissed off with that at the time as I see elections as my political equivalent to footy grand finals and now have to wait an extra year. But I was consoled with Palaszczuk’s third term win of 4 years.
Aston result will be declared tomorrow morning.
“A formal result for the Aston by-election will be declared at 10am on Thursday 6th April. The declaration will be held at 17-21 Hardner Road, Mount Waverley, 3149, VIC.” https://aec.gov.au/aston/
JBL says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 11:43 pm
Aston result will be declared tomorrow morning.
“A formal result for the Aston by-election will be declared at 10am on Thursday 6th April. The declaration will be held at 17-21 Hardner Road, Mount Waverley, 3149, VIC.” https://aec.gov.au/aston/
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Thanks, I just checked: final ALP 2PP 53.62
IIRC, the highest the ALP 2PP got to was 54.3, so a “postal et al whittling” of only 0.7.
I bet there are plenty of NSW state seats where a “whittling” of only 0.7 would’ve left the seat in Labor’s hands.
Any inferences to be drawn (subtext: did Bob Nanva stuff up on some strategic decisions)?
Currently Libs lead Ryde by 68 votes on 2PP. Still 1200 postals to be counted according to Anthony Green.
So in Ryde, we’ve just had added 378 formal absents and 79 enrolment/provisionals on the primary vote, which should claw back a few dozen votes for Labor. The media feed, which is the source of my numbers, only has the initial count, for which they don’t count TCP on absents and enrolment/provisionals. The check count does though, but for today’s additions we only have the primary votes at this point. So the TCP on the check count is Liberal 25,057 and Labor 24,964, a difference of 93, but Antony’s estimate is that the latest additions will make that 68.
Postal votes will be counted on Saturday
Does that mean Howison could still win Ryde? Pretty amazing – could be a NSW version of hanging chads if its that close.
I notice that more postals have been added to the Aston count, and the latest batch also favoured Labor, to the extent that Labor has now pulled more 2pp postals than the Libs (by a margin of 11).
This is another snippet of anecdotal support for a view that late postals tend to favour Labor more than the earlier-counted postals.
There may still be a flicker of hope for Labor in Ryde when the remaining postals are counted on Saturday – especially as the Liberal lead now seems to be 68.
its hard to tell but speaking of strategick a sertain poaster had a go at nanva but neglected to mentionChris stones brilliant plan to waist money on stuart ayres and perottit qwaisting time in cogra a seat he never was going to winn in stead of campaigning in marginal seats maybi if liberals focused on other seats in stead of a stunt in minns seat they might have won more
@Snappy Tom: The vote count isn’t finalized yet, but presumably (and rightly) AEC wanted to get the declaration done as soon as the result was mathematically locked in so that the winner could take their seat in parliament.
On AEC’s website, it still shows several hundred uncounted postal votes (plus what is clearly a data entry error for provisionals, whereby more ballots have been received and either binned or counted than there were people listed as attempting to vote via that method, which will need to be reconciled). And postal votes can continue to be received and counted through April 13. But there aren’t enough kits still outstanding to make a difference even if somehow all of them were Lib’s votes that were lost in the mail.
While the overall result is in no question whatsoever, the postal votes are neck and neck for those who have no interest in the actual politics and care only about the psephological number-crunching.
Ryde has been retained by the Liberals, projection from Antony Green this morning!
Ah, disappointing, I thought the Labor candidate was way more impressive than the Liberal guy, based on what I saw of them both in an online forum a few weeks ago.
The NSW Liberals after Easter presumably will choose their new leader.
Per the NSWEC website, the Liberal margin in Ryde is down to 50 votes. It’s unclear if this is the final result.
The most remarkable thing about this NSW election is that Anthony Green said on election night NSW Labor definitely won 45 seats and some 9 seats in doubt with Labor leading in 5 seats
NSW Labor did not win a single doubtful seat after that. None.
Astonishing and extremely disappointment. As far as I can remember I can’t remember a single election after 1980 where Labor did not win a single doubtful seat. What happened in this election is simply unbelievable. As Bart Simpson once said “I see it but I don’t believe it”.
But Aaron Newton says Bob who is some brilliant electoral strategist.
OC, P1 and Lars rejoice.
funny chris stone nanvas counter part in the liberals does not get anny critercizm it helps that no body has heard of stone a former howard staffer and lobeyist who is state director since 2016 wonder what made head quarters send perottit to cogra waisting resources in a seat they would never winn labor should have spent more time int tweed oatly and ride minns spent far to much time in paramatter desbite the fact we were all ways going to winn it it seems Donna davis is likely to become a senyor minister one day he spent a bit of time in penrith but hardly ever went to ride
wonder who will be labor nsw new secretary now nanva is in parliament most likely Dom ofner or gorge simon minns will have to anowse his parliamentary secretaries soon and who will be president of upper house maybi petter primrose will get the erole that way he can retire in 2023 he has been in upper house since1996 and has not achieved much hopefuly donnolly can retire soon
Aaron, in fairness I think there are a few people on this site who have a strong interest in Labor doing as well as possible, but nobody with a similar interest in the Libs. For most it would be a case of the more mistakes the better.
Labor in those close seats has been done in by pre polls and postals. The pre polls you can’t do much about – the Liberals always do well on those ones because the over 50s in particular turn up to a pre poll location, retired people and so on. But when it comes to postals, Labor this time seems to have been woefully unprepared, the resourcing for that in some seats seems to have been non-existent, Terrigal is a good example.
And in retrospect they didn’t need to resource Kogarah that much, and Oatley or Holsworthy could have done with more boots on the ground.
I’m sure Minns will be able to govern effectively for the next 4 years, but what might have been if the organisational aspect of the campaign had been better.
well i think paramatter got two mny resourcis only reason whiy premoated so heavily is davis is likley to be a future minister he visited paramatter far to much plus perhaps maronie was the rong choice in holesworvey
Evan
I am arguing about the fact that Liberals do well when it comes to Prepolls and postals.
No, my point is in my living memory this is the first election Labor did not win a single doubtful seat when there were 9 doubtful seats ( or was it more) at the end of count on election night. None. I find it astonishing.
Anthony Green said Labor won 45 seats at the end of count on election night and that is their final tally.
15% swing to Donna Davis in Parramatta, combination of her being a well known local Mayor and no sitting Liberal MP. She is top quality, one to watch if Minns gets a 2nd term.
Speaking of Ryde, Labor will decide after Easter if they will request a recount.
Evan
At the end of count on Election night the 2PP was about 55-44 in favour of NSW Labor
According to Anthony Green Postal votes is 55-45 in favour of LNP
I think pre-poll 2PP is about 53.5-56.5 (or was it (53-47)) in favour of LNP.
Those numbers defy logic. What they say is that NSW suddenly woke up on Election day and vote massively in favour of NSW favour.
They have completely forgotten what LNP has done during last 23 years when they were voting pre-poll and Postal but remembered only on Election day.
Perrottet and Libs ran a decent enough campaign. They didn’t run an inherently bad government which is why the results tightened in the “in doubt” section.
None of those seats would be considered in play in a normal election for Labor.
Much as there were outliers for the Libs in the 2011 landslide. When they came close to winning several Labor heartland seats.
I think people are looking to blame OPV and some conspiracy with the count of when there are no irregularities. NSW is comparatively a more conservative state, and LNP generally performs stronger here.
You can’t get angry with voters for exhausting their preferences when they are not mandated to do so.
Preferential exhaustion is an example of the democratic process, and OPV is the best way to break the duopoly as the majors can’t ride in on the back of compulsory preferences.
If anything OPV just reinforces to candidates from Labor and LNP that they shouldn’t be reliant on 2nd and 3rd preferences and work harder to win on primary vote.
Our politicians have become particularly lazy due to a combination of compulsory voting and compulsory preferences (at a federal level)
The question is why the turn around in the vote pattern.. prepoll voting up to fri prior to the election on sat…. was there a late swing on the last day…sat.?
Viscount:
Ya reckon? Ryde, Drummoyne, Oatley and Miranda were all held by Labor during the Carr (etc) years; so was Kiama, although that was its own weird thing. Winston Hills and Holsworthy didn’t exist back then, but were marginal heading into the election (they partly succeeded Toongabbie and Menai – again, Labor-held back in the day). The only two seats that ended up being close that Labor genuinely wouldn’t have seen coming are Terrigal and Goulburn.
Not really. Under CPV the Libs would’ve lost Pittwater and probably Willoughby to independents. Most of the time the count is between ALP and Lib, and exhausting third-party preferences just result in the other major party winning it – it stays with the “duopoly”. Labor would’ve won Ryde under CPV, for example.
Drummoyne, Oatley, Ryde and Miranda won’t be in play for Labor at the next few elections.
Drummoyne and Ryde both had popular retiring members but have for the most part been trending Liberal. Especially Drummoyne.
I’d be surprised if Petinos wins preselection for Miranda next time around. Oatley I think has become to gentrified.
The reason you gave for CPV is just that it benefits Labor. Equally you could say FPTP should be introduced because the Coalition would’ve won more seats under this system. Eg Libs would’ve comfortably defeated Labor in Ryde under First Past the Post.
OPV is the best of both. Preferences make the majors lazier in their campaigning which is why you have seen such a drop in primary vote