After opening with a barrage of results from Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, Freshwater Strategy and Roy Morgan, the New South Wales state election has been marked by complete silence on the public polling front. Nor has the campaign had much to offer in the way of excitement, beyond the usual procession of quickly forgotten promises and social media controversies involving obscure candidates.
Which leaves us with:
• Brad Norington of The Australian reports that Labor is “increasingly confident”, while recognising that they may gain only six of the nine seats required to get them all the way to a majority. Doing so would likely require Riverstone and Parramatta, which are rated merely as “doable”. Should they fall short, Ben Raue at The Tally Room lays out the scenarios for a hung parliament.
• Teal independent Pittwater candidate Jacqui Scruby has filed a complaint over Liberal Party signs alerting voters to the fact that they only need number one box, arguing they are made to appear as official rather than party political announcements. The signs do have a small Liberal logo on the bottom right, but it is alleged they are being positioned so as to obscure it. The complaint echoes that against Chinese language Liberal signs used in Melbourne at the 2019 election, which the Federal Court ruled found deceptive in their adoption of the Australian Electoral Commission’s white-and-purple colour scheme.
• The Liberals have registered two sets of how-to-vote cards for Balmain, Newtown and Summer Hill, one recommending a first preference for the Liberal candidate only, the other a preference to Greens ahead of Labor.
• The Coalition has been getting the worst of the routine election campaign parade of social media indiscretions from candidates in unwinnable seats. The latest case is Bill Burst in Maroubra, who took to Facebook to voice commonly heard right-wing opinions on climate change and the treatment of COVID.
• The Sydney Morning Herald has published breakdowns from its Resolve Strategic poll of three weeks ago by three age cohorts, showing Labor on 39%, the Coalition on 28% and the Greens on 17% among those aged 18 to 34; Labor on 41%, the Coalition on 26% and the Greens on 14% among those 35 to 54; and Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 41% and the Greens on 3% among those 55 and over.
• I had an article in Crikey this week on the growing problem the Liberals face from right-wing minor parties poaching votes from them, such voters overwhelmingly following the practice encouraged by Liberal election signs in allowing their votes to exhausted after the first preference.
Well, chances are that continental Australia will turn red next week….
Next Tasmania state election: June 2025… It’s some time away, I am afraid.
“After opening with a barrage of results from Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, Freshwater Strategy and Roy Morgan, the New South Wales state election has been marked by complete silence on the public polling front. Nor has the campaign had much to offer in the way of excitement, beyond the usual procession of quickly forgotten promises and social media controversies involving obscure candidates.”
Is that a sign that the LibsNats are waving the White Flag?…. Perhaps one borrowed from the Defence Department of the Greens?
G’day all! The lack of any opinion polling means relying on the betting markets, an imperfect science in itself as the 2019 federal election illustrated.
Where Perrottett and Minns campaign in the final week will be indicative of how things might be going overall too.
The lack of opinion polling by the corrupt media, was going to be the indicator , that the NSW state election was not going to be close , it will be Labor government whether its a minority or majority
The corrupt media can try to propaganda a hung parliament , but is it really a close election when the result has been known for a while , that the only major political party which would be able to form government is Labor
In 2019 there was a polling hiatus for a week or ten days until six days before the election.
We need a Royal Commission into lack of polling with the Polling Council of Australasia in the dock.
I’m with Scott we need arrests and detention of corrupt media. This is an outrage.
Lol shellbell
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 7:37 am
I’m with Scott we need arrests and detention of corrupt media. This is an outrage.
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The most important thing is lib/nats combined primary vote under 40% Lars Von trier ,
If there is no newspoll or resolve today or tomorrow then we know that News Corp and Nine are playing silly buggers. Funnily enough the most anti-Labor views this time around are coming from the SMH and ABC News.
It was telling how pissed off the SMH was/is with the buffoon David Elliott for damaging the government’s credibility over a range of issues. It was so obvious that they were incredibly frustrated with a bad egg letting down the team.
Also tomorrow is the day where parties drop serious dirt on their opponents, if it exists. Michael Daley’s comments about asian migrants were dropped on the Monday and the rest is history. I hope for the sake of a good contest that there is not similar level dirt on either Minns or Perrottet.
S. Simpson @ Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 9:03 am
The below the line comments in News Corp rags are all about an impending defeat of the Coalition being all due to Kean. Likely jostling for post-government existence.
S Simpson: News Corp and 2GB in Sydney hate Matt Kean far more than Chris Minns. If Minns became Liberal leader, 2GB especially would go into meltdown, Kean on that station is usually derided as a “Labor stooge” or friend of the Green trendy left.
ABC Election night panel for next Saturday night: David Speers, Sarah Ferguson, Antony Green, Jeremy Fernandez, Prue Carr, Matt Kean.
true Evan,
Infact i think News corp et al are very frustrated that even they think Minn’s is a top bloke and lacking in any personal attack narrative they could launch his way.
I also think the more swinging lib voters see of him the more they agree with him. Thats why I wouldn’t be suprised if he can bring back seats like Drummoyne that were pre 2011 labor heartlands. I know for a fact that Pru has no desire to become leader as we had all been hoping since she entered parliament but even if Minns got a shock loss he is the best NSW Labor have by a country mile and should stay on regardless as leader win or lose on saturday
Kiss of Death merchant thinking it’s a horse race
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/informed-mail-around-party-polling-suggests-chris-minns-will-become-nsw-premier/video/d98d24460bf11d5e13ec2a206bba7242
Matt Kean is one confused individual. He is a new age woke warrior that should be running for the Greens in Newtown yet he some how ended up as the Liberal party treasurer ??.
As the Lib’s version of a poor man’s turnbull he is the spiritual successor to that dying breed of moderate sydney Liberal. I can’t see him sticking around to work with Perrott or his sworn enemies such as the Elliotts and Duttons of his party. Thus, I wouldn’t be surprised if he breaks away to form a metropolitan progressive centre right movement with the help of the likes of the Zimmermans and Sharmas of the world and become a fully fledged party.
Seats for me where there might be shock results next weekend: Drummoyne, as mentioned above, Ryde, Badgery’s Creek(good young Labor candidate out there), Wollindilly(strong independent challenge to the Liberals).
If News Ltd have a dirt file on Minns, they will drop it in tomorrow’s Daily Tele, otherwise they got nothing this time, a la Michael Daley 2019 video that sunk him in the final week.
And funnily enough the leaks this time to Chris O’Keefe on 2GB have been to hurt Perrottett.
Evan.. and Kiama and Monaro and Oatley.. but the forces of darkness are favourites in Monaro and Oatley.
Steve Whan probably hasn’t had enough time in Monaro, then again a former MP in a country seat has name recognition and a few other advantages, so you never know.
Oatley to me is a long shot – sure Minns launched the campaign there, but the seat has trended Liberal since 2011, it actually got safer for the Liberals in 2019.
Kiama is a dog’s breakfast, Mick – not sure what will happen there! Melanie Gibbons in my opinion will come 3rd in the primary vote, so do her preferences then all go to Ward or are they exhausted?
Posted on the last thread at the end but wanted to repost so it didn’t get missed:
I kind of think Myall Lakes is interesting with recent passing of the sitting MP; his inexperienced staffer is the Nats candidate. In candidate forums she’s been relying a lot on what the party tells her to say, always having to read off a piece of paper, a bit uninspiring. There is a high profile independent doctor running and with a lacklustre local labor campaign, I think the independent could take some votes and come second. With a moderate swing against the Nationals, this could be a surprise independent gain. The Deputy Premier has visited a few times in last couple weeks so I wonder if there is some internal concern they might lose this safe seat. Sadly not covered well in the news and reflects why it feels like the area doesn’t get much funding; it’s seen to be too safe!
it was not just elliott undermining the government but that upper house candadate peter poulos matt keans former senyor advisor turned upper house mp shared photows of robyn preston to damage her if this pockiesishue is all the liberals haveit does not seem they haveas scott pointed out when ever labor is in a winning position evry time the hung parliament rummers happin it seems more likely then federal as campaign has not generated much interest but alsoeazy for labor to get majority penrith is gone so is paramatter and east hills plus maybi tweed lepington and south coast kiama with ward splitting liberal vote that gets them there
if penrith was not in trouble Gladis would not have beenrequested to campaign with Ayres its a sign of despiration i dont see whiy liberals bring out howard he would not apeel to youger voters and is very conservative dought he would be able to convince many voters he is no Hawke so if perrotttit is a popular as gladis as alix smith protends whiy are they bringing gladis outperottit is not well liked
imo mninns is prity boreing a safe pair of hands where as perottit seems to struggle to be relatable comes a cros as a typical [private school studdent obsessed with economicks his new housing supper policy is to complex not even kean under stands it
Interesting and unscientific tidbit from a friend in Holsworthy I was talking to last night.
Had Gibbons been retained in Holsworthy, he probably would be voting for her.
Not impressed by the candidate the Libs have picked.
He lives in the end of the electorate that is in Hughes. That’s the old white end of the electorate. Kind of Cookish.
Not how I view candidates but could be an interesting seat on Saturday if that attitude is prevalent.
I am curious how the Nats are tracking particularly out west. Any insights?
Perrottet seems to be on a massive spendathon to try and entice voters. Does NSW have a Budget Office to cost campaign promises?
This article is page one of today’s dead tree version of the DT.
independent candidate in Myall Lakes is listed as a nurse not a doctor
@the other barney:
The Myall Lakes independent is an anaesthetist. The labor candidate is a nurse. The nationals candidate is a legal secretary.
Citizen: public transport users might prefer money was spent on upgrading city rail infrastructure and computer systems. Liberal internal polling must be dire if Dom has the chequebook out again with more bribes
Re Holsworthy.. 6% indeed . makes the seat possible as does the liberal party internal wars. .but the increase in the Menai suburbs included makes the seat difficult
Dom’s bribes don’t seem to.hit the mark and seem obvious. The question why didn’t you implement such
Programs prior to now. ?
THE ANSWER?
Liberal candidate in Holsworthy is Tina Ayyard, wife of the Liberal Mayor of Liverpool Council. I agree with Mick above, a hard seat for Labor to win due to demographic changes.
Holsworthy (and similar electorates) are the new Liberal heartland. Now more so than the North Shore and Northern Beaches.
“• The Sydney Morning Herald has published breakdowns from its Resolve Strategic poll of three weeks ago by three age cohorts, showing Labor on 39%, the Coalition on 28% and the Greens on 17% among those aged 18 to 34; Labor on 41%, the Coalition on 26% and the Greens on 14% among those 35 to 54; and Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 41% and the Greens on 3% among those 55 and over.”
The LNP run this as people get wiser as they get older. It is in fact the case that people get greedier and more selfish as they get older and usually more comfortable.
Greens on 17% are almost catching the LNP on 28% in the under 35s is quite troubling for the LNP, I would have thought as the ‘growing more conservative as you age’ thing is breaking down over time.
The Greens on 3% with the over 55s is interesting/devastating. (We’ve slashed the planet…. bugger you?)
(Good work on this stream everybody. It remains interesting and thought provoking. The main thread has gone troppo.)
NT by-election yesterday (27% swing to the ALP government), NSW general next week, Aston the week after – A psephological orgy – 3 elections in 4 weeks. William, Kevin, Antony et al must be ragged with excitement.
Hopefully (from my biased point of view) the dismal showing of the neo-cons continues in all 3!
MABWM: Yes old mate, we are an oasis of sensible discussion here compared to the sewer that is the main thread(ruined by a certain regular poll Bludger person having a 4 day war with another regular).
“Psephological Orgy” – speaking my language, just throw in a keg or two and I am there, actually us blokes in here should do some serious beer drinking one day.
If only the NSW election mirrored the byelection in the NT yesterday, huge swing against the Tories
Evan says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 1:16 pm
MABWM: Yes old mate, we are an oasis of sensible discussion here compared to the sewer that is the main thread(ruined by a certain regular poll Bludger person having a 4 day war with another regular).
“Psephological Orgy” – speaking my language, just throw in a keg or two and I am there, actually us blokes in here should do some serious beer drinking one day.
If only the NSW election mirrored the byelection in the NT yesterday, huge swing against the Tories
中华人民共和国
I’v eonly dropped into the main thread sparingly in the last few weeks. Been travelling and doing otherr things. Thanks for the sanity here all. Good luck to the forcs of good in NSW next weekend.
S Simpson: very true about Holsworthy and Oatley, 2 seats I doubt Labor will win this time unless there is a big statewide tidal surge against Perrottett. I am sort of pessimistic about Penrith too despite its marginal status, based partly on demographics and also how it defied the swing against Morrison in the federal election last year.
apologies kev. misread the info
UpNorth: G’day legend, and yes, the other thread has gone entirely troppo, sad to witness because a minority over there have wrecked it for otherwise regular good people.
Evan says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 1:33 pm
UpNorth: G’day legend, and yes, the other thread has gone entirely troppo, sad to witness because a minority over there have wrecked it for otherwise regular good people.
中华人民共和国
Hope you are well matey. I am in Sydney as promised on Sunday 21 May – flights out of Thailand to Oz rare as hens teeth so booked weeks ago. Not sure if the PB get together is still on given the antics on the other thread.
If not I will have a few quiet sherbets to celebate one year of sanity. Be safe mate.
Upnorth: if the shindig on May 21 is going to consist of C@tsmomma having a verbal set to with Andrew Earlwood, count me out, not in the mood for that garbage.
Chris Minns has had his final campaign rally in Parramatta today, not sure what Dom is doing.
Strap yourselves in for the final week, I will guess the Murdoch papers and commercial TV will up the anti Minns campaign because after all, they are as always operatives for the Tories. The final debate of the campaign, the so called peoples forum, is on Sky News on Wednesday night, so in other words, 20,000 people get to watch it lol.
Betting markets: Liberals have drifted out to 5.50 – 6.00, if you put any store in Sportsbet and TAB of course.
i have expliained penrith several times labor put no resourcis in to penrith with a parashuted fire fighter no one had heard of labor has put a lot of resourcis in to the state seat
Aaron Newton: Yes, very true that Labor didn’t bother much with Lindsay last year, all the resources in Western Sydney went to Parramatta and Reid(which they won) and Fowler(which they didn’t win).
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/where-sydney-s-bus-driver-shortage-is-causing-the-most-delays-and-cancellations-20230316-p5csm0.html
Privatisation has been a raging success.
Of course the law of supply and demand doesn’t apply when there’s a shortage of labour.
Evansays:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 1:30 pm
S Simpson: very true about Holsworthy and Oatley, 2 seats I doubt Labor will win this time unless there is a big statewide tidal surge against Perrottett. I am sort of pessimistic about Penrith too despite its marginal status, based partly on demographics and also how it defied the swing against Morrison in the federal election last year.
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I agree about Penrith, it may come down to the wire but I reckon the Libs will have their nose in front. I think the Libs are onto something with the building a new Penrith Stadium, a lot of locals live and breathe the Penny Panthers. That alone could get the Libs over the line imo. I am also quite familiar with the eastern part of the Liverpool LGA – suburbs like Holsworthy, Hammondville, Moorebank, Voyager Point. The average demographic is quite wealthy, independently minded and don’t have much time for so-called “woke” politics.
Correct me if I’m wrong but the dirt on Michael Daley appeared in the media on the Monday before the election, didn’t it? The Liberals timed it perfectly. It really was perfectly orchestrated on their part. And Labor would have done the same if they had similar dirt on their opponent. 1 week before election day to ensure maximum damage and completely wrongfoot Daley for the critical last week of campaigning. I reckon they if no dirt appears tomorrow or at latest Tuesday then both leaders are safe on that front.
Oatley and I think (?) holsworthy have to fall on the pendulum for Labor to get majority Government?
I suppose if Balmain drops then that is one less off the pendulum in terms of uniform swings
I think Labor needs to be looking a bit further up the pendulum for gains. Low hanging fruits like East Hills, Penrith and Holsworthy aren’t the kind of seats Labor has the best chances in. Similar seats like Oatley or Badgery’s Creek on bigger margins also seem unlikely to me.
Seats like Ryde, Drummoyne, Parramatta, Riverstone and Winston Hills in Sydney, plus Kiama, South Coast and Monaro down south seem like more likely pick ups based on demographics and the way the campaign has been going
S.Simpson, my memories of the Daley campaign was that it was fairly lacklustre even before the release of that infamous video, all Daley seemed to do was hold news conferences outside the Sydney Football Stadium as it was being demolished. It is true that in the final week, the leaking of that video, which I think was partly designed to destroy Chris Minns, combined with a pretty terrible debate against Gladys, did him in, to the extent that he even suffered a swing against him in Maroubra.
Whether News Ltd have something similarly explosive to aim at Minns, time will tell.