With not much happening on the polling front his week, there is the following to relate:
• There is a modest field of five candidates for the April 1 by-election for Aston, which I’ve had less to say about than I would have liked due to the distraction of New South Wales. Following the ballot paper draw last Thursday, they are in order: Owen Miller (Fusion), Roshena Campbell (Liberal), Angelica Di Camillo (Greens), Mary Doyle (Labor) and Maya Tesa (Independent). Pauline Hanson interestingly offered last week that One Nation had decided to stay out of it as a “strategic decision not to take votes away from the Coalition”.
• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports that not only have Monique Ryan’s recent difficulties encouraged Josh Frydenberg in his determination to recontest Kooyong at the election, but that Tim Wilson and Katie Allen have similar ideas about Goldstein and Higgins, which they respectively lost to teal independent Zoe Daniel and Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah.
• A by-election will be held in the Northern Territory on Saturday for the seat of Arafura following the death of Labor member Lawrence Costa. The candidates in ballot paper order are Leslie Tungatalum (Country Liberals), Manuel Brown (Labor) and Alan Middleton (Federation Party).
• The West Australian reports a rare item of state political polling crediting Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 63%, down seven since October, with disapproval up six to 24%. New Liberal leader Libby Mettam debuts with 24% approval and 18% disapproval. The poll was conducted “last week” by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 1052.
Player One says:
Tuesday, March 14, 2023 at 9:30 am
Snappy Tom @ #41 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 9:23 am
Oh and yes, P1, we’re absolutely going to pay $386bn for just three ex-rental US subs. If you’re going to tell lies of this magnitude, at least get your digits in the right order.
Apologies. $368 billion, not $386 billion.
Bargain!
____________
Now that there’s $18bn left over, I want my:
space rocket (which, in my generosity, I’ll share with Pi on a turn-about basis)
fast train
refurbished Concorde
EV with Back to the Future-style gull wing doors
(some decent health too, please)
damnit!
Snappy Tom @ #41 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 9:23 am
As the PM, who put a similar question by a miscreant misfit journo in their place, said, that figure is for the WHOLE project, over 30 years, incorporating the newly designed sub to be built at Osborne in SA.
And you know who would be the first one to complain if a Hypersonic Chinese Nuclear Missile was aimed at Australia and caused a nuclear catastrophe? Player One. It’d be all … why couldn’t the government have prevented this!?! What about all the death and destruction and the poison that will be in our environment now!?! You know, all the usual self-serving guff that Player One cynically employs. 🙄
That was one of Albanese’s most eloquent speeches (contrary to Taylormade’s opining, he did not yell). I couldn’t see a teleprompter either.
Had a chuckle though – while Albo was speaking, it looked like Sunak was practicing his speech.
I am relatively neutral on the subs but $386B over something like 30 years, for what we get in terms of infrastructure and education etc. (aside from the subs themselves), sounds like more pro than con.
Not sure where “48 warheads” comes from – current estimates are China has about 350…about the same as France…
Sorry, must have been 348, that I misheard. 🙂
JenAuthor @ #53 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 9:38 am
And the PM’s speech was given with a deepness of tenor that contrasted with the weaker voice of the US President, who had just spoken before him.
And I noticed Rishi Sunak practicing his words too. 😀
C@tmomma @ #43 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 9:26 am
For sure those are important factors to consider dispassionately in making this call, one I’m not opposed to.
I’m suggesting that there is a physiological hurdle Australians have in their minds once you break the barrier into triple figures of billions of dollars.
A hundred billion isn’t what it used to be.
Alpo @ #34 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 9:17 am
It’s just Taylormade. He has to find something negative to say. Because. Labor. 😆
702s Sarah MacDonald managed to find an USUKAUS groupie to wave the flag for this idiotic venture and put the boot into the French nuclear subs at the same time.
I’m sure the Chinese will appreciate the notice that the first used subs won’t arrive til the 2030s.
Aqualung,
Are you happy for the Chinese military build-up to occur on our doorstep and we do nothing? Why?
While I have long had (complete layperson) concerns about whether submarines are the right strategic option for Australia, to knee-jerk and scream about cuts, austerity budgets etc etc within seconds of the announcement is just massive eye roll territory.
I have no confidence Shoebridge or the rest of the Greens commenting have put any thought into this beyond “defence spending BAD”.
I am at least pleased to see we are not merely hoofing massive tons of money off-shore and this opportunity and spending will be partly used on establishing a large number of jobs and education in Australia.
Snappy Tom @ #49 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 9:31 am
C@t is probably only talking about those warheads China has specifically targeted at the Central Coast of NSW.
48 seems about right.
Aqualung,
Let me just make an analogy that you may understand. How would you feel if the Chinese set up road blocks on your bus routes because they decided to aggressively commandeer our road network? You’d be against that I imagine and want the government to do something about it.
Now, transfer that thought to the open seas. As the PM was at pains to point out, one of the major reasons we are commissioning the new submarine fleet is so that we can stop China from being able to disrupt our supply chains by commandeering the sea lanes. In the way that Russia has tried to do to Ukraine, if you want a concrete example. Surely you can agree that that is a worthy cause?
Whilst I’m never for the sniping that goes on here in PB, that is amusing.
I dont think the SA Gov has much of a say over the Kimba waste site. Although it is currently being opposed (well, the Federal Coalitions method of selecting Kimba is being fought) in the Federal Court by the Barngarla people.
https://indaily.com.au/news/2023/03/06/david-and-goliath-kimba-nuke-waste-fight-heads-to-federal-court/
Well, Aukus out. Interesting that Marles has just said that he went through the Aukus announcement with the French a week ago. Emphasizes where Aus/Franco diplomacy has gone since the Libs got the boot.
So, Collins until mid 2030’s which i think needs an LOTE. Shipyard development and training (in several contexts) which means jobs now. Heavy emphasis on jobs.
Me think that a big advantage for the US in the short term is a repair capacity and component building outside the US. That meets a mid term real need for them.
Aus Govt framing the costs as % of defense spend (o.15%) over which is probably a realistic way to look at it.
Overall not a bad deal. Yup, i still think the French have a more appropriate boat for Australia in the near – mid term. But….. SSN(R) or the SSN Aukus as its being called will incorporate a lot of the best generic features of that, and, the Brits have a few ideas (you see some on Astute) as far as quietness goes that you don’t see on other boats. I think SSN(R) will end up considerably smaller than Virginia or the US SSN (X) and the crew size issues can be addressed as one of Australia’s main concerns.
Hmmmm……….we may end up with “Aukus” boats in the RAN, and building components for the US SSN(X) or Columbia class SSBN. Long term shipbuilding plan this.
Actually, toss it out there……instead of Collins LOTE buy 4 French built Barracuda. 🙂 So, if the US cant come through with Virginia down the track…….. 🙂
The upgraded Collins arent exactly lame ducks. But yeah, these lead times do give China opportunity to adjust if any adjustment is needed.
imacca @ #65 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 9:58 am
That’s a really good point, one I hadnt considered. The US getting themselves a repair base 8,000km from Taiwan as opposed to 12,000km is strategically important.
“Peter Dutton has suggested the Coalition would offer bipartisan support for cuts to the national disability insurance scheme to keep it “sustainable” and pay for the Aukus nuclear submarine acquisition.”
the man is a fwarking idiot. 🙁
Interesting article by Robert Reich in The Guardian on the current US banking situation:
“There’s a deeper story to Silicon Valley Bank’s failure. What can we learn from it?”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/13/svb-collapse-2008-financial-crisis
Will the US be happy to outsource this to Australia? Big money in this for US companies, towns and States….. and congress peeps.
SSN AUKUS…
SSNAUKUS…
We’ll need to practice our Richie Benaud-style “s” pronunciation.
Repeat after me: “Jusst ssstarting to ssstruggle, here…”
Richie Pronunciation, part 2…
“Sssuper effort to sssnap up that catccchhh…”
It’s in the shaping of the mouth for s, sh, softer ch (like church) and lengthened tch (as in cattccchhh) sounds.
That’ll get us ready for pronouncing SSNAUKUS on a semi-regular basis.
Richie Pronunciation, part 3
Might help if we all had sports jackets in cream, bone, off-white, white, ivory or beige…
Based on the commentary, it’s pronounced “SSNARKUS”.
I guessing that old nuclear subs will end up getting parked at Whyalla, next to the cuttlefish. 2 for one tourist deal.
Donald Trump is warning if Republicans don’t elect him President again we will have a third World War.
“This is the most dangerous time in the history of our country,” Trump claims in a short video. “World War III is looming like never before in the very dark and murky background. Lack of leadership is solely responsible for this unprecedented danger to our beautiful USA and likewise to the world itself. Hopeless Joe Biden is leading us into oblivion. We cannot let it happen. We have to take back the White House, or our country is doomed. Thank you very much.”
The far-right ex-president’s hyperbolic remarks were made in a campaign video, one of several, posted Monday to his Truth Social account.
Earlier this month Trump also threatened the world would see a global war if he were not put back in the White House. “This is the final battle. They know it. I know it. You know it. Everybody knows that this is it,” Trump said at CPAC. “Either they win or we win. And if they win, we no longer have a country.
Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup of this mornigns news, including Australia committing to build SSNAUKUS class subs ( (C)Snappy Tom).
My thoughts
– this is a comprehensive plan to give RAN SN capability in short and long term.
– timeframes are not quick, but realistic.
– cost is eye-wateringly high (higher than I forecast) but it includes inflation and risk (so $268B-$368B) which previous estimates failed to do.
– no sub work at ASC in next eight years. Are we going to build 3 more AWDs instead?
– interesting that UK is now willing to build an RN SSN design with US combat system
– job and education impacts will be great, but will drive infrastructure impacts:
– need to finally electrify Outer Harbor Rail Line in Adelaide (delayed since 2013)
– need to upgrade rail line from Sydney to Wollongong ((cheaper than RTAs planned freeway)
Not sure if this will come out but it is a diagram showing the sequencing of SSNAUKUS delivery.
I do enjoy with wry amusement the fact that some Bludgers still do not get China at all, at all.
No-one knows how many warheads China has. Anything official on the number is bound to be a lie.
What HAS changed is that potential warhead launch sites are proliferating at a huge rate.
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-09/news/new-chinese-missile-silo-fields-discovered
These are the known observable from space fixed terrestrial sites. We don’t know what efforts have been made to build and camouflage other sites.
China is doubtless plonking warheads aboard its ever-growing surface and subsurface fleets as well as its aerial bomber fleets.
We don’t know whether they have plonked warheads into their satellites, but why not? It is not as if China has the slightest interest in anything that might vaguely be regarded as ‘rules based’.
C@tmomma says:
And the PM’s speech was given with a deepness of tenor that contrasted with the weaker voice of the US President, who had just spoken before him.
__________
I couldn’t agree more. The manly timbre of his voice is now only matched by the length and girth of his submarine fleet.
If I were a young man (didi didi didi), I’d be interested in getting into naval architecture right about now.
Nice visual, Soc. Thanks.
As someone said, the government is a bunch of wankers.
@KarenMMiddleton
Early Defence investment in #AUKUS. Not sure if this is a good or bad sign. (Yes, that is a paper clip – it came with the briefing documents)
Soc,
Wrt the workforce issue, I get the impression that Australian workers may be embedded in the US to learn the skills they need and to help intensify the rate of Virginia Class builds via our $3 Billion investment in the ‘3rd runway’ in the US. Pat Conroy and Richard Marles spoke about visas going forward for Australians TO the US and UK and not about visas for a workforce to be imported here.
So … here are the major cost estimates for replacing the Collins class submarines that I have been able to find from 2016 to 2023 …
… $50 billion …
… $90 billion …
… $225 billion …
… $368 billion …
Can anyone spot a trend here? Any guesses what the next number might be?
Dandy Murray @ #80 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 10:09 am
But I am a simple man. A poor common pollbludger.
imacca @ #67 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 10:04 am
No. He’s evil. Though I may admit he’s an idiot when it comes to growing the Coalition vote back up. He just lost every vote in Australia of a family with a disabled family member who has benefited from the NDIS.
Player One @ #84 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 10:44 am
This is the byline for a story in the Guardian. I laughed when I saw it.
Aukus: nuclear submarines deal will cost Australia up to $368bn
Sohar,
Get out of the rabbit hole you’ve emerged from. Stay out and smell the coffee. Then wake up to the reality of the world as it’s going to be.
Is there a AUKUS budget breakdown available anywhere?
I’m interested in understanding multiplier effects of this program. There will be a lot of domestic expenditure in that $368B, which means a steady supply of fiscal stimulus for the next 30 years.
Plus the reestablishment of some domestic heavy industry and manufacturing, which makes good strategic economic sense. I hope we are also developing a significant onshore munitions manufacturing capability, because the spinoff benefits of that tech will be big.
Plus the potential for a domestic nuclear industry, which is something I’m in favour of as a path to deep decarbonisation worldwide.
Real work beckons.
Dandy Murray says:
I hope we are also developing a significant onshore munitions manufacturing capability, because the spinoff benefits of that tech will be big.
Plus the potential for a domestic nuclear industry, which is something I’m in favour of as a path to deep decarbonisation worldwide.
_____________
Nuclear submarines, nuclear power and munitions factories! What a vision of the future!
Dandy Murray,
I’d go to Pat Conroy’s government website for the sort of breakdown you’re after.
Dandy, I have only seen this (from The G liveblog)
Yes, more detail on this will be fascinating. The cream skimming capitalist peeps will be all over it.
nath,
So I raise how those things will have large and ongoing positive flow-on effects outside the military sphere, and you focus on the things.
Well done, nath.
Mostly Interested @ #63 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 9:51 am
No it’s not. It’s just evil. Unless you want to see me as dead as Player One is insinuating!?!
Haven’t looked at the SMH this morning.
Will I need a full body condom?
Dandy Murray @ #93 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 10:53 am
Small minds can’t obviously comprehend big things.
It includes developing and upskilling workforce and industry, supporting the supply chain, the infrastructure in South Australia and Western Australia
_______
Imagine spending 360 billion on actual education and infrastructure rather than training people to operate nuclear reactors under water. The most absurd idea in human history probably.
Team Katich says:
Tuesday, March 14, 2023 at 10:00 am
I’m sure the Chinese will appreciate the notice that the first used subs won’t arrive til the 2030s.
The upgraded Collins arent exactly lame ducks. But yeah, these lead times do give China opportunity to adjust if any adjustment is needed.
———————————————————————————-
This is why the 4-5 US and UK subs to be stationed here from 2027 will be useful in providing a very real presence that China won’t appreciate.
Aqualung @ #95 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 10:53 am
No need to bother, Aqualung. You’ve already made up your mind. And no amount of common sense seems to be able to persuade you.
Last thing, have you even thought about how keeping Australia a free and democratic country in the future for your grandchildren can be achieved? Certainly not by taking the do nothing approach you seem to have settled on.
C@tmomma @ #94 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 10:53 am
Don’t flatter yourself – only one of those warheads is for you, C@t.
The other 47 are needed to take out the Terrigal branch of the ALP.