The fortnightly Essential Research poll was published yesterday, showing the following:
• On voting intention, primary vote numbers inclusive of a 7% undecided component have Labor and the Coalition on 32% each, which is one down in Labor’s case and two up in the Coalition’s. The Greens are down two to 12% and One Nation are up one to 7%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down two to 49% and the Coalition up two to 44%, with 7% undecided.
• Leader favourability ratings, in which respondents are asked to rate the leaders from zero to ten (distinct from a more conventional approval question that is asked of the Prime Minister once a month), offer the most distinctive evidence yet for a softening of Anthony Albanese’s position: 40% now give him a rating of seven to ten, down seven on last month, with 28% scoring him from zero to three, up six.
• For the first time since Labor came to power, a “national mood” question records a net negative result, with 42% rating that the country is on the wrong track, up five on a month ago, compared with 38% for the right track, down five.
• A series of three questions on tax policy includes one on “reducing tax concessions for people with superannuation balances over $3 million”, which found 50% supportive and 19% opposed. Forty-seven per cent rate themselves unlikely to have $3 million in super when they are old enough to access it along with 23% for not that likely, while 8% think it very likely and 15% fairly likely. “Tightening up the rules around family trusts to make it more difficult for wealthy families to split their incomes and reduce their tax” was supported by 55% and opposed by 15%, and cancelling stage three tax cuts has 42% support with 22% opposed.
The poll was covered Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1141. Other poll findings around the place:
• An additional result from this week’s Newspoll has support for an Indigenous voice at 53%, down three on a month ago, with opposition up one to 38%. Last week’s Resolve Strategic poll also had a supplementary question on the voice, which had support at 58%, down two from December and January, and opposition up two to 42%.
• The quarterly True Issues survey of issue salience by JWS Research finds concern over the cost of living continuing to raise, now rated as one of the three main issues by 47%, up from 44% in October and just 16% a year ago. Housing and interest rates is up seven since October to 26%; health has steadied after a long decline as the pandemic faded from the limelight, now up two to 31%; and environment and climate change is down three to 23%. The survey was conducted February 24 to 27 from a sample of 1000.
• The latest weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intentions have Labor on 38%, the Coalition on 33.5% and the Greens on 11.5%, with Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 56.6-43.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday; as usual, the sample is not specified.
Fulvio Sammut @ #45 Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 – 8:20 am
A total mess, and one of the Greens own making.
Has Rex appeared yet to condemn the Greens for their horrible lawyers who for some reason forced Saint Lidia to confess to a relationship with a bikie that she didn’t have?
I didn’t think it was possible to get Lidia to say stuff she doesn’t actually agree with, but there you go.
There’s probably waterboarding involved. You can’t trust those Greens. All pious good works in front of the camera, then behind closed doors it’s sipping mint juleps and waterboarding the Senators while fondling lumps of coal.
I for one condemn this endorsement of torture by the Greens and ask that in atonement they pass the fucking emissions safeguard and housing bills already.
UK Cartoons:
Dave Brown on #RishiSunak #SuellaBraverman #AsylumSeekers #Refugees #SmallBoatCrossings #HumanRightsAct #ECHR #CultureWars
Ella Baron on the #RishiSunak and #SuellaBraverman plan for small boats
Patrick Blower on #KeirStarmer #SueGrayGate
Matt on #migrantcrisis #boats #Refugees
Christian Adams on #SuellaBraverman #migrantcrisis
Guy Venables on #migrantcrisis #boats #Refugees
Fergus Boylan on #BorisJohnson #StanleyJohnson #Honours
A-E
Correct
Then you get to Ukraine, for the same reason
Minus NATO (so the USA), Ukraine does not exist
The only hope is that this conflict, promoted as it is, does not escalate to a wider conflict and remains a conflict on Russia’s Western border where it has raged since 2014
Then we get to the testimony of the Federal Reserve Chair to Congress, informing that continuing “hot” inflation indicators will result in further increases in interest rates
Noting the inflationary cycle is due to the supply and logistic interruptions of a Pandemic which continues to impact and due to pressures on energy resources due to the continuing conflict on the Russian border
Neither of these events have resolution – in terms of the border conflict only when people directly impacted have had enough
The detriment to such a mood is that these races are born to conflict by their very history (and the never ending “contributions” of a serial contributor to this site are indicative of where the problem is – with people)
Minus resolutions, where does the abatement of inflationary pressures come from?
The history of the Cash Rate over the past 30 years is what it is – an indictment on the Coalition (before you get to private debt and the absence of wages growth)
Simply, entrenched inflation and the damage it will cause to a highly leveraged society has to be addressed
Then you have the deflection war mongering with China by the Liberal Party controlled media
And the deflection of 10 rises in the Cash Rate – from 0.1% no less
The media in Australia is exclusively about destabilising the Australian population for reasons of the bias of media
It is a concussion approach
We are being bombed as are citizens elsewhere – except there is also real bombs there doing the damage we see
So where is the reporting of Powell?
Under the Business heading saying the ASX will fall today
Says it all, doesn’t it?
Be careful people, be very, very careful
We are being gamed by vested interests
And 9 Entertainment crows about its polling, telling us it is winning
Interesting discussion with an author of a book about Russian internet trolls about Russian information warfare:
https://youtu.be/VUyAINFvVcg
C@tmomma @ #39 Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 – 8:12 am
‘9 years of Coalition delay and denial’
I think this is wearing thin with the voters I fear.
Most voters have memories like colanders.
I’ve already overheard someone saying…’well, we were warned, it won’t be easy….’ etc etc…
Fulvio Sammut @ #49 Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 – 8:27 am
Thanks, FS. 🙂
mundo @ #58 Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 – 8:49 am
Yes, yes, that’s right, mundo, you’ve heard the doom and gloom scenario and are faithfully reporting it here. However, you are also, by the doing, exhibiting your belief in an infantilised electorate, which the election in May ’22 showed was not the case at all. Also, I think you should keep front of mind the saying when you hear, likely Liberal voters saying, ‘we were told it wasn’t going to be easy’, that, ‘one swallow does not a summer make’. 😐
Red Alert was a fantastic computer game many years ago. Perhaps Peter Hartcher was a fan?
#weatherobPB
The thin steel grey clouds,
are stretched too far (with holes torn),
to let in the light.
This is a neat summary of what’s wrong with the Safeguard mechanism:
https://michaelwest.com.au/rex-patrick-on-labors-safeguard-bill-bigger-holes-than-the-ozone-but-not-beyond-repair/
1. Using forest regeneration to generate carbon credits, which are either outright dodgy, or where the forests would have grown anyway. No actual emissions savings either way.
2. Using carbon credits for methane recovery, which is already profitable to recover and use. This allows highly profitable industries that could easily reduce emissions simply buy up carbon credits at the expense of vital industries that cannot do so as easily.
3. The fact that such carbon credits are unlimited, which means overall real emissions can end up going up rather than down but still be in compliance with the mechanism.
Put these together, and you might begin to see just what it is that the mechanism is designed to “safeguard”
Zoe Daniel’s amendments would fix the first two flaws, but not the third – which is perhaps the worst. There is no way this is an acceptable policy. But unlike Rex Patrick (the author if this article) I don’t agree this is even a policy that could be improved over time – it is flawed by design.
Don’t blame the Greens, blame the major parties and their financial supporters, who all want this mechanism in place precisely because it is so flawed.
Something i did not see happening.
—–
Hungarian delegation backs Sweden’s NATO application
Victoria @ Wednesday, March 8, 2023 at 9:03 am:
“Something i did not see happening.
—–
Hungarian delegation backs Sweden’s NATO application”
==================
Victoria, excellent news! Now we just need Erdogan to see the light.
Enough already
Erdogan has been observing how Nato and the EU have stood firmly in unity together with the USA and other western allies, during this aggressive assault by Russia.
I would offer that the individual in the media is the comedian dressed in his battle attire – and pleading for further military resources from wherever
He is a product of media
And is that the same Hatcher who went to NZ during their last election actively promoting the defeat of the government?
Along with Sheridan
Hatcher has no credibility
The Reserve Bank governor has indicated that the board is considering a pause after 10 consecutive interest rate rises, but the timing would depend on incoming economic data.
In a speech to the AFR Business Summit, RBA boss Philip Lowe revealed the bank’s board had actively talked about the possibility of leaving the cash rate target on hold at a future meeting, now that it is in “restrictive territory” at 3.6 per cent.
“At our board meeting yesterday, we discussed the lags in monetary policy, the effects of the large cumulative increase in interest rates since May and the difficulties that higher interest rates are causing for many households,” Mr Lowe told the audience in his prepared remarks.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-08/rba-governor-philip-lowe-afr-business-summit/102066846
Enough Already @ #65 Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 – 9:06 am
As a big purchaser of Russian Arms and with a demand that Sweden hand over Kurdish Separatists to Turkiye, it’s going to take a lot of persuading and ‘bribing’ and threatening of Erdogan before he will say, yes. I would think the threat of suspension from NATO would be enough but then he may simply join the BRICS or other Chinese or Russian Security Alliance group. So, we’ll just have to wait and see, I guess.
Victoria @ #66 Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 – 9:09 am
So has Orban. He is a creature of throwing in his lot with the biggest bully in the playground.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the most consequential situation in the world at present.
Russia must lose and retreat, nothing less will suffice.
Here we go again @ Wednesday, March 8, 2023 at 8:44 am:
“Minus NATO (so the USA), Ukraine does not exist
The only hope is that this conflict, promoted as it is, does not escalate to a wider conflict and remains a conflict on Russia’s Western border where it has raged since 2014”
==================
HWGA, yes, without NATO finally waking up after 8 years of open aggression by Russia against Ukraine before the world’s eyes, an independent sovereign people with a proud history would likely have been conquered by a resurgent Tsarist empire. We have all seen this past year what Russians will do to Ukrainians which are under their control. 😡
My main hope is that Ukrainians achieve a swift and complete victory over Russian forces on their territory, and so liberate their rightful land, so they can enjoy their lives in freedom and peace.
I think all here agree with that, don’t we, HWGA? 🙂
Victoria @ #71 Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 – 9:15 am
Especially so that China doesn’t get any big ideas.
Every day and in every way Tucker Carlson shows that he is a mouthpiece for Putin.
The demise of Fox cant come quick enough.
Traitors one and all.
Victoria @ Wednesday, March 8, 2023 at 9:15 am:
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the most consequential situation in the world at present.
Russia must lose and retreat, nothing less will suffice.”
================
+1
Conservative MPs on Tuesday night demanded the BBC take action against Gary Lineker after the corporation’s highest-paid presenter compared the government’s migration policy to Nazi Germany.
The Match of the Day host, paid £1.35 million by the BBC, commented on Twitter on a video of Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, in which she unveiled plans to stop the surge of migrants crossing the Channel. He wrote: “Good heavens, this is beyond awful.”
After someone accused him of being “out of order”, Lineker replied: “There is no huge influx. We take far fewer refugees than other major European countries. This is just an immeasurably cruel policy directed at the most vulnerable people in language that is not dissimilar to that used by Germany in the 30s, and I’m out of order?”
Tory MPs expressed outrage on Tuesday night. Craig Mackinlay said the comments were a “step too far” and the BBC should sack Lineker, while Jonathan Gullis urged the broadcaster to “stand up” to the presenter and “remind him his job is to talk football, not politics”.
C@t
China’s future actions will be wholly dependant on how the war plays out.
Here we go again @ Wednesday, March 8, 2023 at 9:10 am:
“I would offer that the individual in the media is the comedian dressed in his battle attire – and pleading for further military resources from wherever
He is a product of media”
=====================
HWGA, a rather oblique reference you make here to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but anyway.
I think it is excellent for his people, for Europe and for the defence of international law everywhere that President Zelenskyy has so brilliantly employed the communication skills he honed in his entertainment career – and first acquired in his legal education – to harness worldwide public revulsion at Putin’s outrageous and unjustified invasion of his country towards the imperative of equipping Ukrainians to bravely resist that bloody, imperialist invasion. Don’t you agree, HWGA?
🙂
Former President Donald Trump (R) is reportedly workshopping insulting nicknames for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in anticipation of facing him in a primary for the Republican presidential nomination. According to Bloomberg, Trump’s workshopped nicknames include “Ron DisHonest,” “Ron DeEstablishment” and “Tiny D” (a none-too-subtle suggestion that DeSantis has a small penis).
Victoria @ #74 Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 – 9:18 am
Have you seen what he’s done to the Jan6 footage already!?!
https://youtu.be/jwSDauGb4y4
Western allies take note: if you want to beat Putin in Ukraine, target his wicked little helper in Belarus — Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya*
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/07/belarus-ukraine-alexander-lukashenko-vladimir-putin
* Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is the leader of the democratic opposition in Belarus
C@tmomma wrote “Interesting discussion with an author of a book about Russian internet trolls about Russian information warfare:
https://youtu.be/VUyAINFvVcg ”
The most interesting thing for me about Russian information warfare and the Ukraine War is how little value they have got out of their investment in it.
Ukranian information warfare has absolutely owned the Russian effort – from effective mythmaking, to internet-based fundraising, to allowing political leadership of Western countries to act, Russian internet trolling efforts have been a collection of hilarious failures.
It’s almost like the money committed to it by the FSB got stolen for yachts or something.
Nahhh.
C@tmomma @ Wednesday, March 8, 2023 at 9:11 am:
“As a big purchaser of Russian Arms and with a demand that Sweden hand over Kurdish Separatists to Turkiye, it’s going to take a lot of persuading and ‘bribing’ and threatening of Erdogan before he will say, yes. I would think the threat of suspension from NATO would be enough but then he may simply join the BRICS or other Chinese or Russian Security Alliance group. So, we’ll just have to wait and see, I guess.”
==================
C@t, on the first point, hopefully Russia’s industrial capacity will start to face enough constraints on the supply of parts from sanctions that Türkiye will see that as much less of a factor going forward. As for the second, I don’t know enough about the domestic Swedish politics surrounding this issue. What is the sticking point for Sweden here?
Adam’s choice rejects starring role following audition cock up.
@GreensToo
While I think the uncontrollable factors, Russia and the USA at war in Ukraine, Climate Change, the wealthy ruling elite in the USA wanting a recession etc, the inability of both sides to see the failure of trickle down economics more than a decade after the GFC showed the failure, it is way to early polling wise to be concerned about Albo.
What the labor sycophants here should really we worried about is if the mad Labor factions know this. They are pretty stupid.
C@t
Yes i have. Tucker Carlson is a piece of crap.
If you draw a line from Kaliningrad to the Carpathian mountains (pretty much the border that Stalin and Hitler agreed to before Barbarossa) this is Putin’s ultimate aim (including the return of the baltic states as Russian vassals). This will mean that instead of Russia needing to defend a 1600 km border they can defend 600km’s (with a bit of Romania thrown in on the Southern flank for good measure).
Not that having this helped Stalin in 1941.
Poland is well aware of this and from their perspective it’s a lot easier to fight a proxy war through Ukraine to stop Russia than it is to have WW3 on their territory.
It’s worth noting that Poland is building up their military on a massive scale, to the point where they’ll be one of the largest militaries in Europe, as a counter to Russian aggression.
Confessions says:
Wednesday, March 8, 2023 at 8:36 am
Fulvio Sammut @ #45 Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 – 8:20 am
Oh dear, what a mess, Lidia. A green, slimey mess of intrigue.
Up there with robodebt even.
Now, who was that Greens lawyer who gave you relationship advice?
A total mess, and one of the Greens own making.
——————————————————————————————-
A small question, if what Thorpe is saying no is correct, why didn’t she simply tell the truth the first time……………?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #38 Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 – 8:11 am
+1
Victoria @ #86 Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 – 9:59 am
Tucker Carlson is a traitorous poc and should be thrown in prison with the key chucked in the Potomac! Then Rupert Murdoch should be deported to the Sahara Desert and asked to find his way home by foot.
Cronus says:
A small question, if what Thorpe is saying no is correct, why didn’t she simply tell the truth the first time……………?
_________
A reasonable question, not that it matters. She was pilloried on here by Labor stooges and alleged to have provided information to bikies.
Ultimately, it doesn’t matter. She is a figure to be hated by many and in the end, no matter what she does or doesn’t do she will be hated on.
Thanks BK.
I suggest what we are seeing is the right wing’s “long game”…
Continually demand “details” on the Voice
Work to block key Labor initiatives
Blame Labor for every negative indicator, regardless of its cause
Maintain Labor is stuffing AUKUS – especially on subs, the biggest-ticket item
Tell lies about “off-the-shelf” AUKUS deals the they “would’ve” secured
Recycle Menzies’ “reds under the bed” campaign
BTW, China doesn’t have the capability to invade this country and won’t for decades. To invade, they would need a true, long distance, “blue water” navy. In today’s world, only the US has that.
China has 2 aircraft carriers, only 1 of which approaches the size (but not, by a wide margin, the capability) of American super-carriers (the US has 11 of these, plus a similar number of amphibious assault ships about as big as China’s first aircraft carrier!) China is completing a third carrier, which will be their first with catapults – a technology at least as hard to master as designing and building submarines (only 2 countries have designed and built catapults so far – Britain, which invented the concept and the US.)
To invade Australia requires destroying Australia’s submarines and deploying an air force within striking distance of Australia. To achieve either of these is beyond China’s current or near-term capacity. They would need to build so many ships of different types – ranging from aircraft carriers to supply ships – invasion is almost certainly beyond their medium-term capacity.
If the Americans help us, invasion would be beyond China’s long-term capacity.
It’s “Reds under the bed propaganda” designed to erode votes away from (red-ish) Labor to the (definitely not red) Coalition.
None of this should be interpreted as me supporting complacency. The historical (and present and future) reality, however, is that invading any place by sea requires an enormous degree of naval and air supremacy.
Two examples:
1) D-Day 1944 landed over 150,000 troops (on the first day!) on a section of coast defended (locally) by 50,000 enemy. Over 1,200 warships protected (a few German submarines tried and failed to attack the invasion fleet) 5,700 landing and support vessels and bombarded enemy positions. Allied air forces flew 12,000 sorties, German air forces were almost absent.
The resources assembled for D-Day show the insane level of superiority required to sustain a sea-borne invasion that is opposed.
Ah, but D-Day was a long time ago. China has better technology. We have better technology than China. Attempting to invade Australia would break China’s ocean-going navy, damage its air force and cause some losses to its army – and all this would happen to them just trying to get here.
2) Australia sent a tiny force of a few thousand (at any one time) to Vietnam. It wasn’t an invasion – the US totally controlled the sea and the air. We still needed to use an ex-aicraft carrier (HMAS Sydney) plus lots of airliner flights etc to support even this small force.
Costello media – and the other propaganda units – have poll numbers to shift.
This weekend Sky News are re-running their China Invasion special of a few weeks back. Boerwar will be heading down to the supermarket for more Iced Vovos.
yabba @ #89 Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 – 10:06 am
Yeah, yeah, whatever. Two little men who want to attack old C@t by putting words in her mouth. ‘tacitly endorsing’, my fat aunty. Jeez, Andrew_Earlwood, you are such a low class prosecutor. Do you try and put words in the Accused’s mouth like that as well? Earlwood is a known appeaser of China, but yabba, did I hurt your delicate feelings of superiority yesterday when I called out your jihad and sanctimonious jowl wobbling against Christianity and anyone who might remotely want to live a life according to basic christian tenets? *yawn*
I mean, how many times do I have to state that the last thing I want to happen is a war with China in which Australia becomes involved? However, the more perceptive among us realise that, in order to prevent this happening we have to provide a strong deterrence, so that no one gets any smart ideas. Sheesh!
Now go away and stop bothering with me. Especially you, Andrew_Earlwood. You should also know, for the millionth time, that I have you blocked and so every time you attempt to denigrate me, it’s not for my ‘benefit’, it’s simply to puff yourself up. Which I guess you must be feeling needy right now since I was right about the subs, being they were never going to be your darling Suffrens, and you were wRONg. So many 1000s of words, for so little result.
None of this should be interpreted as me supporting complacency. The historical (and present and future) reality, however, is that invading any place by sea requires an enormous degree of naval and air supremacy.
Exactly. Deterrence is the best form of attack. The Echidna/Porcupine Principle
Snappy Tom,
You seem to know a lot about WW2. So I’ve been wondering, wrt the War in Ukraine, if ‘Bunker Buster’ bombs might be effectively deployed against Russia’s newly dug in and concrete-fortified positions?
Poorline have a red hot crack at racist speech of the year atm. Man, She lives in a bubble of hateful BS.
Certain Labor partisans have egg on their faces for past attacks and smears against Senator Thorpe.
I shan’t be re-quoting those attacks but they know who they are.
It’s Australia’s political redux. Greens saying no to something about climate change while thel/np say no to anything and everything. This place is stuffed.
Team Katich @ #95 Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 – 10:30 am
If you listen to that interview with the author of the book on Russian internet trolls and the Russian disinformation program in the West you will learn how Russia has co-opted ‘Useful Idiots’ like Pauline Hanson and her ilk to erode the West from within. For Russia’s benefit. From about the 18:20 mark:
https://youtu.be/VUyAINFvVcg
Don’t blame us Rex, we just made the mistake of believing that the Greens and Senator Thorpe were telling the truth about what she did. How are we meant to know the Greens lawyers advised Thorpe to lie about a relationship that didn’t happen?
Are you telling us in the future we should assume they’re lying?
Someone suggested last night that Kathryn Campbell looked like a broken woman
Her demeanour – responding with monosyllabic answers was a device to not provide any ammunition for a hostile examination
Appearance – face – no make up
Appearance – dress – that lime jacket makes anyone with her colouring look ill – why was it sooo ill fitting
the busy black and white knitted top was expensive but did not go with the jacket, making her look drakky
Appearance – she purposely dressed to look ill (or has no style)