Better than never, the Poll Bludger now brings you its guide to the March 25 New South Wales state election, containing the usual features: comprehensive written reviews of all 93 seats accompanied by tables, charts and interactive maps of booth result from the 2019 election; a guide to the Legislative Council; and a summary overview page. I regard it as still needing work to the extent that the “profile” sections on the seat pages do not yet offer the usual level of demographic and redistribution detail, and the Legislative Council page is wanting for candidate photos, though no doubt only a diehard follower of the site would be alert to such deficiencies. Margins and post-redistribution party votes are based on my own calculations, which partly explains the delay. For the most part, these differ very little from those calculated by Antony Green for the ABC.
We also have a new poll result courtesy of the Sydney Morning Herald and Resolve Strategic, which apparently does not follow the normal practice of this series in producing state polls combined from two monthly national surveys. It is instead reported as encompassing 803 respondents from Wednesday to Sunday, and is thus no less timely than this week’s Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy polls. The results, however, are particularly encouraging for Labor, crediting them with a primary vote of 38% (up a point on two months ago) as compared with 32% for the Coalition (down two), 11% for the Greens (down one) and 13% for independents (up one). The pollster does not provide two-party preferred, but this would pan out to upwards of 56-44 in Labor’s favour based on preference flows in 2019. Dominic Perrottet nonetheless records a combined very good and rating of 45% compared with 40% for very poor and poor, respectively compared with 43% and 28% for Chris Minns. Perrottet retains a 38-34 lead as preferred premier, unchanged in margin from his 33-29 lead two months ago, reflecting a lower undecided rate.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of New South Wales. The general discussion thread continues here.
Thanks for the NSW guide Monsieur Bowe.
Thanks William.
Thank you for creating this wonderful resource! I think a small correction is needed. Northern Tablelands should be deepest National blue rather than independent grey.
It’s striking how blue Sydney is. So much of western and also southern Sydney has been lost to Labor since 2011.
Ven, “Case is not closed based on your figures for NSW
Why?
NSW: 7 – 3, 4
And current discussion is about NSW election.”
So you’re now saying that other state results like the 2022 Victorian election are irrelevant? Make up your mind!
Thank you!
Thank you, William.
The results, however, are particularly encouraging for Labor, crediting them with a primary vote of 38% (up a point on two months ago) as compared with 32% for the Coalition (down two)
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If that turns out to be close to accurate on election day
Labor primary vote is around 38%,increased by 5% (33%, 2019)
If the lib/nats combined primary vote is around 32%, that is nearly a 10% decrease (41.5%, 2019)
no ifs or buts, Labor government and Lib/nats will be in opposition
Thanks William.
Just a note or two – top of 7th para of Overview should refer to Bankstown, not Blacktown (I think?).
The Labor Candidate in Willoughby has a new profile picture – can be found here https://www.nswlabor.org.au/sarah_griffin
And least you be embarrassed by the omission of them if they make the final count, I’d hedge my bets if I were you and add the Labor candidates to the Candidates description at the bottom of the pages for Lane Cove (particularly) , North Shore and Willoughby. I’d pay a little more attention to the most recent local council and federal election results when deciding who to mention in your preview, and less to the MSM puff pieces.
Well, that’s much more encouraging for the ALP.
William, great job as always with the election guide, thank you!
Another survey in today’s Sydney Morning Herald on the issues people care most about this election.
Costing of Living dominates – 50% of respondents say it’s their No 1 issue.
Interestingly, only 2% of people say problem gambling is a concern for them when they vote, yes the very thing Perrottett and the SMH have been promoting(cashless gaming in pubs and clubs).
Labor polls better than the Coalition on who is best to handle health, education, climate change policy.
Liberals lead in only one area – the economy, budget management.
I had forgotten that all three Shooters MPs had gone independent. Anyone on the ground with insight into their reelection chances?
What’s interesting is cost of living doesn’t really align with questions on who is best for the economy. Federally, the Libs usually led on the economic managers question (however flawed a concept) but the ALP led on cost of living. It’s more like a “understands the issues of people like me” question. I do think this poll is definitely under-egging the Libs and boosting Indies – BUT, as I keep saying, underpinning all of this, is the assumption OPV will automatically help the Libs.
23 days to polling day.
After a couple of announcements, during the phoney summer campaign, who is going to be the first to jump the shark and raise the “Very Fast Train from Newcastle to Sydney” issue, again?
Does anyone have an idea as to why Roy Morgan seems to get relatively higher liberal primary votes than than Labor. One other poll had 37/36 the liberal party way and all the other recent polls had Labor in front.
Northern Tablelands colour fixed and Blacktown changed to Bankstown — thanks all for paying attention.
Mick:
As Roy Morgan doesn’t see fit to share their methodology or even release polls while they are still vaguely relevant, who bloody knows. They could be drawing numbers from a hat.
Edit: Dupe post
Am I correct in believing that the best Coalition PV in recent polls is 37% and the worst 32? If so, this would represent a PV decline of 4.5 to 9.5% since previous election.
Meanwhile, polls seem to have Labor around 36-38%, right? This would be an increase of 2.5 to 4.5 compared to previous election.
Not sure how it washes through, given OPV, but the news is surely bad for Coalition central!
i dont see te liberals apeel the herald is heavily pushing the lyne nsw should stick with liberals because perottit is a nice guy but evry election the liberals change leaders it is a prity weak argumment the government are bad all the senyor ministers butlets protend we vote for perottit and not our local member to save this tired government
Snappy Tom,
Here the recent NSW opinion polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_New_South_Wales_state_election#Polling
And here is the comparison from 2019.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_New_South_Wales_state_election#Polling
What are the chances that ex-Green Jeremy Buckingham wins a seat for Legalise Cannabis, perhaps at the expense of the Greens?
Ch 7 news had an item half way through the one hour bulletin about the LC inquiry into the Liberal/developer/Hills Council/Perrottet brothers scandal.
The interim report (not unexpectedly) says there is an issue warranting referral to ICAC and has uncomplimentary references to the alleged wrongdoers including the Perrottet brothers.
Of course, this is unlikely to have much influence on the election as the MSM is not proclaiming it a big scandal but the “missing” alleged wrongdoers potentially face an appearance before ICAC.
Scotty says:
Thursday, March 2, 2023 at 8:01 am
The results, however, are particularly encouraging for Labor, crediting them with a primary vote of 38% (up a point on two months ago) as compared with 32% for the Coalition (down two)
If that turns out to be close to accurate on election day
Labor primary vote is around 38%,increased by 5% (33%, 2019)
If the lib/nats combined primary vote is around 32%, that is nearly a 10% decrease (41.5%, 2019)
no ifs or buts, Labor government and Lib/nats will be in opposition.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Chris Minns, Commander of the Labor Party, declared its purpose:
“Government: The final frontier.
These are the voyages of the Labor Party. Its four-year mission: to explore a strange new world, to seek out a new life and a new civilization, to boldly go where it has not gone since 2011”.
Beam me up, Scotty !
Asha says:
Thursday, March 2, 2023 at 9:32 am
Well, that’s much more encouraging for the ALP.
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I mentioned the other day that we need another two or more polls to see exactly where we are heading.
This latest poll confirms the ongoing 2PP lead to Labor.
Maybe just one (or two) more.
Macca RB says:
Thursday, March 2, 2023 at 12:57 pm
23 days to polling day.
After a couple of announcements, during the phoney summer campaign, who is going to be the first to jump the shark and raise the “Very Fast Train from Newcastle to Sydney” issue, again?
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Just like LOTO in QLD Deb Frecklington back in 2020, two weeks before polling day, when they could see they were going to lose badly to Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (PAP), decided to ‘jump the shark’ to buy votes.
Deb and the desperate LNP said if they are elected they will give every registered car a $300 rebate.
The arse fell out of it when it was published that QLDs richest man, worth 1 or 2 or 3 billion dollars depending on what day it is, had 9 cars or more registered under his name, a nice little package for him but nothing for those who can’t afford a car.
PAP happened to increase her majority which will keep her in good stead for 2024.
William,
Here is the Labor candidate for Cronulla.
https://www.nswlabor.org.au/paul_constance
I think he was also the candidate in 2007.
Morgan had Labor in the low 30’s so ranges for both across the four polling companies are pretty similar, what’s clear though is Labor’s 2PP is between 52 and 56.
Carbone seems to be running and he’ll win, meaning the net 5 Labor need for likely minority government becomes 6 and potentially 7 if he has a running mate in Fairfield.
I’m also hearing that Labor are pessimistic about Penrith but I suspect this may be expectation management given they were convinced they were winning it last time and came up short.
Macca RB says:
Thursday, March 2, 2023 at 12:57 pm
23 days to polling day.
After a couple of announcements, during the phoney summer campaign, who is going to be the first to jump the shark and raise the “Very Fast Train from Newcastle to Sydney” issue, again?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Reminds me of the election promises that went on for 131 years to build a railway line extension to Redcliffe north of Brisbane.
I can recall many state elections where at least one side of politics promised to build it, only for it to be shelved for various reasons.
PAP was the lucky Premier at the time to catch the first train from Kippa-Ring station in Redcliffe in October 2016.
Not sure if she got many votes out of it.
98.6 @ 9.57pm
Thanks.
At least the Redcliffe extension was feasible and not beset by the mammoth engineering concerns, which the Newcastle – Sydney VFT needs to overcome in order to be constructed.
Desie @ #28 Thursday, March 2nd, 2023 – 9:56 pm
I would not be too cocky if I was Carbone. He must surely know that Fairfield Council is worthy of an inquiry into why it should not be sacked
Is Frank Carbone really that popular in South West Sydney? Just assuming he’ll automatically win Cabramatta if he runs for the seat – not something I’d believe.
BTW the candidate Labor picked for Fairfield, David Saliba, he’s got a pretty tremendous bio and CV.
Liberals still haven’t picked a Kiama candidate, nor candidates in a lot of safe Labor Sydney seats, no candidate yet for Strathfield either(Jason Yet Sen Li obviously will retain that seat very easily for Labor).
This election will determine what people want more in NSW: more infastructure and road spending from the Coalition, or more funding of hospitals and schools by Labor?
Evan @ #33 Friday, March 3rd, 2023 – 8:57 am
Schools and Hospitals and budget repair will win the day when the chips are down.
I thought that Ms Morgan was the candidate in Kiama for the liberals. Has something changed? Re the Roy Morgan polls I was not that concerned with the the actual or inputed 2pp. But rather why they are showing primary vote leads for the coalition which seem to show the biggest gaps which differ from nearly all the the other polls post sept 2022. Is this a systematic mistake? It is my opinion that the primary vote for the alp will be close or exceed that for the coalition
Evan @ #32 Friday, March 3rd, 2023 – 8:54 am
I think Peak Carbone may of passed. Yes he is cocky after linking up with Liberal Dai Le. But I think that if a Labor govt is elected he will be subject to an inquiry into why Fairfield Council should not be sacked.
I guess the shite lite orgasms after the NSW State Election will be drowned out by full of shit whining
Scarily it does too many levels of gov with one of the major parties, so here’s to more minor parties and independents
Cross voting across legislature and council
not from the aeria dont know how carbone will go but tri vo is veitnamese and carbone is not and he was picked buy the local branches obveously he must think Saliba is a strong candadateq
Nice work William. The East Hills graph looks wrong: it implies the seat became marginal after 1995, which was not the case.
Seems like Perrottet is clutching at straws. Wants to give the appearance of taking action but calling for a secretive internal Liberal party investigation???
well chris stone had twwo matters refered to him allex hawkes eleged branch stacking in 2018 and meliser mcgintosh wanting him to investigate her branches take over buy the right faction in 2021 years later stone has sat on the investigations doing nothing this is just another won suprised stone is still there been state director since 2016 and was a former howard staffer and lobeyist
this is perottit looking like the party is doing somthing while realy doing nothing im sure alix smith will be convinced but Gean claud is nsw yung liberals secretary and Ray williams said in his speech that a internal investigation would clear the members due to there factional links to perottit with out mentioning him it is not a good practice foor parties to investigate them selves
Evan says:
Friday, March 3, 2023 at 8:57 am
This election will determine what people want more in NSW: more infastructure and road spending from the Coalition, or more funding of hospitals and schools by Labor?
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Was there ever a time in history, since cars were invented, that we did not need more infrastructure on roads. It will never stop, certainly not in the next 100 years.
Ditto for hospitals and schools.
Boils down to what stage of life you’re at.
Older aged people need hospitals more than they need schools.
Snappy Tom.. this is indeed the difference from 2019
The primary vote margin between Labor and the.coalition will effectively be minor even or with. Labor infront. 2019 was 41 lib 33 alp about 8 % which means the liberal gain from opv ( assuming. The general polls are right) will be minimal or non existant
Macca RB says:
Friday, March 3, 2023 at 7:06 am
At least the Redcliffe extension was feasible and not beset by the mammoth engineering concerns, which the Newcastle – Sydney VFT needs to overcome in order to be constructed.
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I’m not quite sure why we need a Very Fast Train from Newcastle to Sydney.
At a distance of 160klms post office to post office it will depend on the number of stations or stops it will have to make to take advantage of the very fast speed.
How many commuters who would live in Newcastle’s CBD would want to go to Sydney’s CBD for work or whatever, or vice versa.
What about the extra mile, or miles, on both sides of the train stations, before people get to their final destination ?
It would be a very small percentage of VFT uses who would simply go CBD to CBD.
The stupidity of this short VFT journey is that it only encourages people who live 160ks away to travel one and a half to two hours each way to work every day.
Don’t encourage them.
VFT are great for long distances, say Sydney to Melbourne or Brisbane, but they are a long long way off yet.
Thanks for pointing this out — I had a wrong number entered for the 1995 redistribution.
I’m in Strathfield and I’m noticing alot more visible Labor support than in 2019 and at the by-election, especially from the small businesses. Admittedly no Liberal candidate yet that I’m aware of but the Labor support is quite telling.
@William Winston Hills seems to be empty
A poll mentioned in today’s Daily Telegraph for the seat of Pittwater, it puts the independent candidate in the lead over the Liberal candidate, 51-49(two party preferred).
Morgan Poll