New South Wales election minus five weeks

Labor chooses a candidate for its safe seat of Cabramatta, as unanticipated vacancies emerge for the Liberals in the upper house and Labor in the seat of Monaro.

Three recent developments on the preselection and disendorsement front as the official campaign period comes into view:

• Canley Heights lawyer Tri Vo will be Labor’s candidate for Cabramatta, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Nick Lalich. Vo won a preselection vote on Saturday from a field that included Tu Le, whose earlier bid for the federal seat of Fowler was thwarted when the party’s national executive installed the ultimately unsuccessful Kristina Keneally. Alexi Demetriadi of the Daily Telegraph reports Vo won on the first round with 39 votes out of 61, against ten votes for Adrian Wong, staffer to former federal MP Chris Hayes, and six each for Le and Kate Hoang, state president of the Vietnamese Community in Australia.

• Liberal MLC Peter Poulos has been dropped from the party’s ticket after admitting to sharing nude images of party colleague Robyn Preston, who posed for Penthouse magazine in the 1980s. The incident occurred while Poulos was working as a political staffer before entering parliament in 2021. Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the two leading to candidates to replace him on the ticket are incumbents who had hitherto been denied preselection: Melanie Gibbons, who lost the ballot for her existing seat of Holsworthy to Tina Ayyad, and Shayne Mallard, who was among those cast aside when the party addressed its gender equity issue by making room for three women to the ticket. Both share Poulos’s factional alignment with the moderates.

• Former NRL player Terry Campese announced his withdrawal as Labor’s candidate for Monaro on Friday, making unspecific complaints about media intrusiveness. This presumably referred to reports that he was “filmed at a raunchy sex-themed party dressed as a scantily clad police officer”, as reported by the Daily Telegraph.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

82 comments on “New South Wales election minus five weeks”

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  1. Once the offical election campaign gets into gear , the trend of the corrupt media in recent state elections is not to publish opinion polling fortnightly if the opinion polling is not looking good for the lib/nats.
    Wonder if NSW will be following the recent trends

  2. @scott – it’s ostrichism at its best. Don’t like the polling? don’t ask any questions. It is what lead to the Victorian election media debacle 22. Polling hadn’t changed in Victoria since the previous election but the media ran with a hung parliament narrative, cos …sells papers.

    Victorian poll today? Dan has increased his lead. Further. Ouchie.

    Minns in a landslide.

  3. OMG dude. Read the room!

    NSW Liberal powerbrokers are scrambling to replace dumped upper house MP Peter Poulos, with a push for a woman to take his spot while retiring transport minister David Elliott is arguing he should claim it, as a man replacing a man.

    Elliott – who was left without a seat after boundary redistributions meant he no longer had factional support – has been calling colleagues to seek their support.

    One senior Liberal MP said Elliott was telling colleagues he would continue his role as “Liberal spear thrower” in the upper house, and has also argued that it would be appropriate for a man to take the spot because he would be replacing a man.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/transport-minister-eyes-liberal-upper-house-spot-after-poulos-dumping-20230219-p5cloz.html

  4. so kean would like the spot to go to jackqui munro the womans cowncil pressident gibbins partner kent johns lost to poulos for the upper house spot in the first place what does it say abbout keans influence that his closist backer has been dumped

  5. Over the weekend Andrew Clenell on Sky referred to internal Coalition NSW polling that was close and that it would be like the 1995 election. No numbers of course 😉

  6. what hapining with fairfield will labor choose a candadate in the seat so kean is backing jackqui munro but he has not had much luck with his candadates getting up this election

  7. I haven’t been following this one much at all other than the headlines. The narrative seems to be Libs in chaos, Labor to limp across the line Steven Bradbury style.

    Not sure if that’s true or not we’ll see I guess.

    The G does a nice round up in this week’s Full Story podcast.

  8. Scott, the SMH emphasised in the last Poll the preferred Premier number that had improved for Dom as evidence of his surge and moral vindication for his campaign.

    This is going to be a tight election any which way.

  9. “Andrew Clenell on Sky referred to internal Coalition NSW polling that was close.”

    His faux ocker accent should not mask his cluelessness.

  10. Griff- Given how off the Liberal party internal polling was in Sydney in the federal election, I am not sure I would putting too much weight on them now.
    It is just the kind of fluff that parties in loosing positions put out to keep the troops going. And when the best they can aim for is a hung parliament the true position is probably worse.

  11. “Steven Bradbury”

    I can’t draw a stick man but I can imagine a Steven Bradbury style cartoon but those scattered around the track would need to be much higher than the Olympics final

  12. Arthur Callwell won 2 votes in his first preselection foray so Tu Le may have prospects later on. If she wishes.. the process of rank and file preselection is important matter.

    @Mick Quinlivan

    It doesn’t change the fact that alot of Labor bashers on this blog (Lars)- that were suggesting Tu Le was the popular rank and file choice for Fowler have gone into hiding. After Le only secured six votes out of 61 votes in a state seat based in the federal seat.

    I never supported the Kristine Keneally parachute, but the fact they were happy to go along and pretend this fake narrative. That Tu Le was the rank and file’s choice on the basis she went to the media alot and she was good mates with the previous member. Shows what little knowledge they had into Fowler and what other potential candidates Labor had that may also warrant merit. All for the sake of bashing Labor.

  13. Let me guess. After all the preselection dust settles, Nine / Fairfax and the News Corp stenographers will endorse another Coalition term.

    Because after all the scandals, corruption and incompetence, it should be man of the people Opus Dei Dom, who deserves to lead the state again.

  14. Last night, on SBS, I had my viewing interrupted by two ads for the NSW State election.
    The first was a continuing of the Chris Who (?) theme of his plan for NSW – waving a slim coloured volume in the air.
    The second was a most coruscating ad from the LNP, based upon a scratch pokie card. Alas, the LNP had the most impact. I don’t know whether the SBS demographic is prime LNP territory to target – but Labor needs to go a bit harder with its election advertising if it really wants to form government. There is so much material, courtesy of the current incumbents, available, such as the chaos in the Transport portfolio, to create an affective and winning campaign.

  15. Dustbootsays:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 11:02 am
    Let me guess. After all the preselection dust settles, Nine / Fairfax and the News Corp stenographers will endorse another Coalition term.

    Because after all the scandals, corruption and incompetence, it should be man of the people Opus Dei Dom, who deserves to lead the state again
    _____________________
    Dom Perrottet deserves a full term blah blah blah

  16. now cabramatter is sorted is labor going to have a candadate in fairfield Nanva is eazily the worst nsw general secretary he seems to have little expirence runningpolitical campaigns dont know much abbout him he was a former union oficial but from weak advertising to poor candadate selection including picking an unknown for riverstone he does not seem to interestid in a winn plus the monarow situationhead office should do propper candadate selection

  17. Nanva did not handle fowler well iva will fairfield get a selection or will a candadate be installed with the liberalsdeserving to loose even though minns is running a disaplind campaign niver he or head officedomt seem to be have there heart in ite

  18. Then again this poulos situation is an imbaresment to kean he was keans only friend on ticket now looks like jackqui munro will gget the spot as the liberals realy deserve to be voted out with out there bad dealings it is dissapointed labor seems not to be making a more convincing effort i can see whiy minns aparently lacked backing from mps and had to be installed buy union presure he lacks any real pation for the job and oftin like perrottit comes a cros as if he is dis interested given he is unwilling to take many risks dont think he will do much as premier dont see whiy the unionsfelel he is some of great leader that theythought so hard to get him seems a better sales person then preveous leader but its not saying much needs to show morep pation it seems he does not even want to winn

  19. has minns said any thing on tudehope scandle its ashame labors best prospect and one of the hardist working mps prue Carr did not want to become leader she is labors best performer a great speaker sounds like aa future leader and is on top of her education role she seems to have strong support from fellow mps linked to the transport workers union like moohkey then again perrottit simiilar lacks pation or any real effort in retaining government both leaders seem like there not realy invested

  20. Aaron, in the space of 4 days last week I met and listened to both Prue and Chris. Prue is all class, but Minns was dynamic.He was on top of his facts, spoke clearly with passion and polish. Our local candidate ,Liza Butler, emerged from the ashes of the bushfires 3 years ago totally pissed off with the lazy local member, and lack of response from the State Government.

  21. well elliott is part of hawkes group and they have dun prity well the uselis Ray williams whomade a speech atacking perottits brothers and nsw right faction members close to premier some how survived he must be close to hawke and elliott could be behind the puoulos and tudehope leaks tudehope is perottits best friend and closistadvisor his daughtter is still the [premiers deputy chief of staff and mclaron jones leads the ticket with her old seat going to fellow hawke faction lutenant scott farlow so elliott can not complain much his centre right faction seems the most powerful desbite being the smallist faction

  22. laz more spin triying to deflect from the liberals falling apart with the factions fighting against each other they is no evidence park is interested in being leader he is one of prue cares closist allies she would be more likely to take the position danual moohkey is also a strong performer parke is hardly in the newsmaybi desbite him no longer controling the numbers matt kean will be the next oopposition leader

  23. A bit more on moves to stop the return of Elliott
    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/liberal-rivals-block-nsw-minister-david-elliott-s-last-ditch-attempt-to-revive-his-career/ar-AA17HfrK?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=57eec20a2aa24cd081024b8476da72ed.

    Greg Rudd above is correct, David Elliott is a bomb thrower, he’ll no doubt have another damaging leak in mind to hurt Perrottett or Kean, aided and abetted by his mate on 2GB Ray Hadley.

  24. Chris Minns is the real deal, his problem is a lack of visibility, not enough punters know who he is yet, I hope that changes in the next few weeks. Minns is Premier material if he got the chance, very much in the Peter Malinaukas mode – maybe it’d help Minns if he went shirtless on Bondi Beach for instance and that got all over the news, that thing worked for his mate in South Australia. Shallow, I know, but anything to get the attention off Perrottett, who rules the TV news bulletins here in Sydney.

  25. Does anyone know what swing is required to unseat NSW Liberals at State level?
    From the Wikipedia article on the 2019 result I see the Liberals won the 2019 2PP 52/48.

    While I know they do not necessarily translate, the 2022 Federal election swing to Labor in NSW was +3.2%, with teals masking a 6.1% drop by in PV the LNP in NSW. Federal NSW 2PP was Labor 51.4/48.6.

    Surely with Gladys gone and the NSW Liberal MPs playing resignation of the week, they might do worse? The Federal polls have actually swung to Labor since the election. Where will Perrottet find a change in trend to pro-Liberal?

  26. There have been comments that Labor may limp across the line in Steven Bradbury style.
    I have never met the man but my daughter has and we both consider him ultra worthy of his Winter Olympic medal.
    Because his opponents were piss-weak and couldn’t stay upright, which is a prerequisite for any chance of winning, Bradbury won Australia’s first ever Winter Olympic Gold medal.
    To borrow a phrase from the late Bert Newton, I can genuinely say “I Like The Boy”.

  27. Evansays:
    Monday, February 20, 2023 at 5:45 pm
    Chris Minns is the real deal, his problem is a lack of visibility, not enough punters know who he is yet, I hope that changes in the next few weeks. Minns is Premier material if he got the chance, very much in the Peter Malinaukas mode – maybe it’d help Minns if he went shirtless on Bondi Beach for instance and that got all over the news, that thing worked for his mate in South Australia. Shallow, I know, but anything to get the attention off Perrottett, who rules the TV news bulletins here in Sydney.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    While some of your observations are pertinent to Chris Minns becoming premier, they are not the be all and end all.
    This is a common misconception usually beaten up by the incumbents. Usually Tories.
    Think back to Annastacia Palaszczuk, Kevin 07 and lot of others from both sides who were said not to be well known.
    They even said it about Albanese who has been in parliament for 26 years, 3 of which were as opposition leader.
    Of course if that person loses the MSM can say that’s because they were not well known to the electorate.

  28. Walking around the seats of Summer Hill (where I live) and neighbouring Newtown and Balmain. Lots of Jo Haylen corflutes in Summer Hill, and the occasional Greens corflute.
    Lots of Labor corflutes for Philippa Scott in Balmain (sitting Green Jamie Parker retiring).
    Even spotted some Labor corflutes in Newtown seat, although surely the Greens are safe there.
    If the Greens candidate gets up in Balmain it’ll be the first case ever of a Green MP succeeding another at any level, state or Federal in Australia.

  29. Socrates 2 9.28pm.
    Re – ALP Swing to form Government.
    In order to form an absolute majority in the Legislative Assembly the ALP requires 47 seats.
    It currently has 38 seats. It requires 9 more seats.
    A uniform swing in the 3-4% would, at best, realise 5 seats.
    These would be, based on the current Electoral Pendulum: East Hills (0.1%), Upper Hunter (0.5%), (Penrith (0.6), Goulburn (3.1%) & Willoughby (3.3%).
    Despite the low margins of both Upper Hunter & Willoughby, I doubt that they will be LNP losses.
    The next 6 must win seats require the following margins to become ALP gains: Tweed (5.0%), Winston Hills (5.1%), Holsworthy (6.0%), Riverstone (6.2%), Parramatta (6.5%), Oatley (6.8%). Camden on a (7.3%) is another possibility. From there the next bracket of seats, starting with Ryde require a swing of greater than 8.9%.
    This pendulum includes the results from the 2022 By-elections.

  30. what is happening with nsw laborcandadate in fairfield they have sortid out cabramatter but they have to sort out fairfield soon Nanva appears to be a weak nsw labor campaign bos if it wasnt for perrottits government in cricess and falling apart and minns disaplind campaign focusing on cost of living the failures of labor hq would get mor atention

  31. Macca RB, the margin you give for Willoughby is between Liberal and independent from the by-election where Labor didn’t run. It reads as though you’re saying Labor could win this on a swing of 3.3%.

  32. Delta @ 8.55pm.
    Re: Willoughby.
    I actually stated that: “I doubt that they will be LNP losses”, referring to both Willoughby and Upper Hunter, despite their low margins.
    I previously stated that a well-focused use of tactical preference flows could result in the loss of Willoughby to an Independent or ALP candidate, which would result in one less LNP member of the Legislative Assembly.
    The fly in the ointment is optional preferential voting, particularly where the LNP usually instruct their supporters to only Vote 1.
    Hopefully, a majority ALP Government, working with the cross bench, in both Parliamentary Chambers, can return to full preferential voting practices.

  33. Opv benefits the party that polls the highest primary vote in a global sense and an individual seat basis .
    The exception to this is where green and or Labor preferences constitute a large number.. this is a danger to the liberals on the North shore against independents and teals. And in any seat where Labor benefits from green preferences or visa versa.
    The opinion polls are suggesting a 6 to 8% swing to Labor AND maybe more important Labor is polling a higher primary vote than coalition candidates in nsw.. this means that a large coalition loss is possible. I think that the coalition cannot win government in nsw unless they outpoll Labor in first preferences.. this was a feature of the 2011 2015 and 2019 elections

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