Today’s Daily Telegraph has a YouGov poll showing 46% support for a yes vote in a referendum on an indigenous voice compared with 30% for no, with 24% undecided. Support was at 61% among Labor voters, 31% among Coalition voters and 72% among the small sample of Greens voters. Sixty-eight per cent rated that the government had done a poor job of explaining how the voice would work, with no detail provided on other responses. The poll was conducted online “last week” from a sample of 1069. UPDATE: The poll was limited to New South Wales.
Other than that, the only bit of recent polling I’m aware of is the return of Roy Morgan’s weekly update video and its regular serving of thin gruel on federal voting intention. This records Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5, out from 58.5-41.5 before the summer break, and a notably wide gap from a series that had found Labor with relatively modest leads for much of last year.
Also:
• Following the death on Tuesday of New South Wales Liberal Senator Jim Molan, reports suggest the front-runner to succeed him is fellow conservative Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW. However, Max Maddison of The Australian reports some moderates believe the faction should try to poach the seat for one of their own, the chief contenders being defeated Wentworth MP Dave Sharma, unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and thwarted Warringah preselection hopeful Jane Buncle. Tony Abbott has ruled out a suggestion by former Victorian state party president Michael Kroger that the position should go to him, although Dennis Shanahan of The Australian today reports that would be open to a lower house seat if it had “overwhelming support” in the party.
• Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Thursday that moderates were urging Marise Payne to create a second New South Wales Senate vacancy by retiring shortly after the March state election, potentially to be succeeded by Fiona Martin, who lost her seat of Reid at the federal election last year; Gisele Kapterian, former staffer to Julie Bishop and Michaelia Cash; or Maria Kovacic, state party president and unsuccessful federal candidate for Parramatta. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reported today that Payne has “told colleagues she does not intend to retire”.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reported yesterday on a “push within Queensland’s Liberal National Party to bring former Senator Amanda Stoker back into the fold”, with the suggestion that she might topple lower-profile incumbent Paul Scarr to gain the top position on the Senate ticket at the next election. With the second place on the ticket reserved for the Nationals, and no suggestion in the report that a position might become available in the lower house, the only other possibility would be for her to again take third place. This was a losing proposition for her at last year’s election and would also require her to depose an incumbent, in this case ideological fringe dweller Gerard Rennick.
Chris Hipkins to succeed Jacinda Ardern as new PM of New Zealand.
The scrutiny is increasing on Mark Butler. He’s just not very good. Well, at least in Health. How soon can a reshuffle happen?
“For the last few days I have been unable to access The Australian.”
That’s gotta be good for your health, BK.
Don’t know where this quote originated from, but it doesn’t matter – it’s right on the money…
‘”If rAbbott does, it will simply confirm what has long been obvious: there is no place in life for a man of such mendacity and brute selfishness, except in the Liberal Party of Australia”
It seems being a right wing ex pm is not a good thing for post politics jobs. SCOTTY I think would find this the case. Dutton yes too but he is already extremely rich. Does the need for unlimited federal icac leave cause problems or is it the probable adverse findings
My goodness, the Liberal party sure has a long list of losers to pick from when gifting a Senate seat.
zoomster says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:15 am
Albo will simply move to legislation, which (whilst not what’s wanted and has long term risks) will still demonstrate commitment to the cause and allow progression on the other elements.
__________
Will you be meeting with him this term? Time to heal the wounds?
Holdenhillbilly @ #NaN Saturday, January 21st, 2023 – 8:35 am
He looks about 15 years old! 😆
… and then there is the War in Ukraine….
“The Soledar area has been the scene of intense and continuing fighting even after a Russian claim that it had been taken, which is disputed by Ukraine. Russian forces have incurred heavy casualties, with Ukrainian forces holding defensive lines outside the town and continuing to strike Russian troops inside it.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/20/first-un-aid-convoy-reaches-soledar-area-ukraine
Is Soledar a “great Putin victory”? Or is it a “great Putin grave”?
I’m sorry, but I can’t see the logic in Albo wanting to legislate the Voice if the voters reject it at a referendum.
That is a repeat of the Blairite disaster re Brexit.
nath
I’ve only met with him once (if you can call standing by someone who doesn’t address a word to you ‘meeting’), when he came to Wodonga, so given that track record, it’s unlikely I’ll meet him again.
The government is working very well.
Rex
Ah, so you’d rather FN people didn’t have a Voice.
I mean, we all knew that.
Just read that Saturday Paper piece by Chris Wallace. What unadulterated horseshit about Mark Butler! Apart from his admittedly poor 7.30 interview this week, Wallace’s problem with him appears simply to be that he’s not a ‘zero COVID forever!’ zealot.
I see Abbott has flagged his intention to undermine Dutton and return to resurrect the Libs and lead them to salvation.
😆
“Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:49 am
I’m sorry, but I can’t see the logic in Albo wanting to legislate the Voice if the voters reject it at a referendum.
That is a repeat of the Blairite disaster re Brexit.”
I don’t think that right now Albo and the ALP are interested in wasting time thinking about “what if we lose the referendum” scenarios. They are fully focused on winning, and that’s exactly what they should be doing!… and the opinion polls are highly encouraging, btw.
I’ll be voting YES zoomster. 🙂
Rex
So if you’d be voting YES, why wouldn’t you want the process to continue, even if the referendum failed?
zoomster says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:52 am
nath
I’ve only met with him once (if you can call standing by someone who doesn’t address a word to you ‘meeting’), when he came to Wodonga, so given that track record, it’s unlikely I’ll meet him again.
___________
yes you’ve said before how incredibly rude he is in real life. He seems so affable on camera though, and that’s where it counts I suppose.
Alpo @ #NaN Saturday, January 21st, 2023 – 8:46 am
Or is it a Putin Potemkin ‘victory’?
zoomster, I respect democracy.
Alpo: “I am certainly not prepared to demonise the entire Greens party …”
BoerWar: “Hold my beer!”
nath
I’m prepared to believe that he is being truthful when he says his accident changed him.
As a general rule, the rudest politicians I’ve met have been from Labor’s Left.
“C@tmomma says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:58 am
Or is it a Putin Potemkin ‘victory’?…”
Well, that’s my hope: that the Russian soldiers , just like their forefathers did, say “Enough is enough!” and turn against tsar Putin, who is the real and ultimate cause of their sorry predicament in the battlefield.
Rex
There’s a difference between voting for a change to the Constitution and supporting legislation.
I respect FN people. Their favoured option is Voice, but I don’t think they’d want people to walk away from progressing their agenda if it fails at a referendum.
Giving up on Voice means giving up on Truth and Treaty, because these need a Voice to progress them.
A Voice – in whatever form – is a mechanism which lets ‘white’ Australia hand over these processes to FN people, who can then guide us.
Without a Voice (or legislated equivalent) we remain with ‘white’ Australia doing the dictating.
….anyway, Rex, I would have thought you were a ‘the government should do the right thing, even if it isn’t popular’ kind of guy.
Zoomster. Rude or just arrogant?
“zoomster says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 9:01 am
As a general rule, the rudest politicians I’ve met have been from Labor’s Left.”
Of course, you are the only one who can judge your personal experience. But this is the current list of some prominent ALP parliamentarians from the so-called “left” (But note: ALL ALP parliamentarians stand on the left/centre-left side of the spectrum, compared to the Coalition):
– Albanese
– Plibersek
– Burney
– King
– Giles
– Kearney
– Aly
– Butler
– Wong
– Gallagher
– McCarthy
How “rude” are they?……
‘VCT Et3e says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:10 am
https://www-ewmagazine-nl.translate.goog/opinie/achtergrond/2023/01/kernenergie-een-onderschatte-oplossing-voor-de-nederlandse-energietransitie-919158/?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
Green or Clean or … i/c energie transition, because of a clear and present danger, yeah and by all means address health, inequality, governance, powershift …’
==========================================
‘wakker’ means ‘awake’. There are some countries which, if they want some degree of autonomy over their energy supplies, must pay more and must go nuclear.
‘Oliver Sutton says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 9:00 am
Alpo: “I am certainly not prepared to demonise the entire Greens party …”
BoerWar: “Hold my beer!”’
—————————–
I heartily congratulate the South Australian Greens and the ACT Greens, both of which have voted for parliamentary motions supporting the Voice referendum. I have spoken to some of the latter. They are, and I quote, ‘appalled’ at the damage being done to the Voice referendum by some of their colleagues.
Boerwar @ #80 Saturday, January 21st, 2023 – 8:14 am
By allowing a difference of public opinion on the Voice (which is healthy in private) the Greens are allowing themselves to be painted as against the Voice via selective reporting and public indecisiveness. This is good for the Coalition and organisations that are against the Voice. It is bad for the Greens. It is bad for the Voice.
Bandt has the authority to fix this. His inaction has only two explanations that I can think of. Either the current situation is exactly what he wants. Or he values his title (leader of the Greens) above his responsibility to his members and to his country.
Alpo
I didn’t say ‘therefore all MPs from Labor’s Left are rude”.
Of course, if the Greens came out unequivocally in support for the Voice, they wouldn’t get as much media attention.
Just as the FN people who are unequivocally in support of the Voice don’t seem to.
“Late Riser says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 9:18 am
… By allowing a difference of public opinion on the Voice (which is healthy in private) the Greens are allowing themselves to be painted as against the Voice via selective reporting and public indecisiveness. This is good for the Coalition and organisations that are against the Voice. It is bad for the Greens. It is bad for the Voice.
Bandt has the authority to fix this. His inaction has only two explanations that I can think of. Either the current situation is exactly what he wants. Or he values his title (leader of the Greens) above his responsibility to his members and to his country.”
LR, I fundamentally agree with you but there is no need to panic right now. The Greens are obviously going through a process, and I am confident that their internal conflicts will be resolved in favour of supporting the Voice (perhaps subsequently adding that the struggle won’t be over with a win at this referendum, and that the “rage” should be maintained to then get the Treaty at some stage in the near future). Clearly, Bandt’s leadership will be crucial to resolve this issue asap.
zoomster says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 9:21 am
Of course, if the Greens came out unequivocally in support for the Voice, they wouldn’t get as much media attention.
Just as the FN people who are unequivocally in support of the Voice don’t seem to.
_______________________________________
Of course, the person who has had the most prominent reporting in the media on the voice is Dutton (and his questions to be answered). Who is white.
I reckon if Dutton had been an MP in 1967 he would have opposed the referendum then and then wait a decade to pretend that he got it wrong.
CNBC reports Twitter now has around 1,300 employees, down from 7,500 in November, equivalent to a 80% cut.
Alpo @ #NaN Saturday, January 21st, 2023 – 9:11 am
Yes, zoomster makes sweeping generalisations sometimes that just aren’t true. And, let me tell you, there are some pretty rude Labor politicians from the Right (Centre Unity), too. But none so rude as politicians from the True Right, the Coalition.
I’m just waiting to see if the lack of full-throated support from The Greens for the Voice Referendum will have an effect on their numbers in the first Newspoll of the year. Which should be out in a couple of weeks time, all things being equal, with parliament resuming in early February.
I still think timing is what matters with the referendum.
The vast majority of people who will decide whether to amend the Constitution have not paid any attention at all to the issue and won’t until quite close to the date. That is, at the very least not before the referendum amendment bill is put to Parliament.
All this prepositioning is getting our attention as political tragics (with the odd troll thrown in for bad luck) but is not cutting through at all in the general voting public. Albanese won the last election by not being goaded into responding to provocations, including a lot of purportedly ‘friendly’ fire. He is following the same game plan now.
I am not confident the referendum will pass. But, absent clear support across all political parties, sticking to the plan of not reacting to every stupid or malevolently inspired question is the way to give it its best shot. In retrospect, I think doing the Fordham interview was a mistake on his part but he handled the ambush pretty well. I don’t think he will make the same mistake again.
TPOF,
And the PM can now say … he’s done the Fordham interview.
zoomster says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 9:01 am
As a general rule, the rudest politicians I’ve met have been from Labor’s Left.
_________________________________________
I still remember the retired Lindsay Tanner on QandA chatting amiably and loudly with Christopher Pyne while his erstwhile colleague Kate Ellis was trying to comment on something. It was that behaviour that convinced me that Tanner (who allegedly hated Julia Gillard) was responsible for the mid-election campaign leak that did so much damage to Gillard.
‘Yes, zoomster makes sweeping generalisations sometimes that just aren’t true…’
In this case, I didn’t. I was careful to phrase it so it wasn’t a generalisation.
(Some of my best friends are from the Left!!)
zoomster says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:40 am
Don’t know where this quote originated from, but it doesn’t matter – it’s right on the money…
‘”If rAbbott does, it will simply confirm what has long been obvious: there is no place in life for a man of such mendacity and brute selfishness, except in the Liberal Party of Australia”
———————————————————————————————
And having been embarrassingly and unceremoniously dumped and humiliated by his own party for his base incompetence, what type of individual so lacks self awareness that they consider returning when their previously outdated values are even more, well, outdated?
TPOF, a few minutes ago.
“The vast majority of people who will decide whether to amend the Constitution have not paid any attention at all to the issue and won’t until quite close to the date.”
—
The issue of the Voice caught me off guard when it emerged after the election last year. I had been dimly aware of it, but it wasn’t on my radar back then. I expect there are many like me. But I also expect many don’t have the luxury of copious free time to have yet thought through what it means to them. Free time is scarce. Consistent positive messaging over the next months will be important.
For me the Voice is a moral choice. And as others have noted, so was the decision on SSM.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 9:37 am
I’m just waiting to see if the lack of full-throated support from The Greens for the Voice Referendum will have an effect on their numbers in the first Newspoll of the year. Which should be out in a couple of weeks time, all things being equal, with parliament resuming in early February.
_______________________________________
The circus around the Greens working out its position on the voice will do far more damage to the Greens than to the Voice (unless they do something stupid in Parliament on the actual referendum vote). The Greens probably have the highest proportion of “politically switched-on” voters of any political party in Australia and I cannot imagine many would not be appalled by the current shenanigans.
I teach a unit on the Aboriginal Civil Rights movement.
In the curriculum, it ends with Rudd’s Apology.
I always extend this to the Statement from the Heart.
When I told other History teachers I was doing this, the response was ‘never heard of it’.
zoomster says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 9:45 am
‘Yes, zoomster makes sweeping generalisations sometimes that just aren’t true…’
In this case, I didn’t. I was careful to phrase it so it wasn’t a generalisation.
(Some of my best friends are from the Left!!)
______________________________________
I read it the way you meant it!
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/visual-capitalist_polarization-politics-government-activity-7022269148252553216-qjbX
TPOF @ #NaN Saturday, January 21st, 2023 – 9:50 am
And young voters for whom this issue is key to their support for The Greens, as they believe The Greens are the party to extract the most for Indigenous Australia.