As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).
Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.
Cronus @ #493 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 4:02 pm
Thank god it won’t be Morrison and Frydenburg, should it happen next May. The gloating would have been unbearable!
Cronus, if Dr Jim wanted or expected to announce a budget surplus do you really think they would have let the news slink out just before Christmas? It’s more likely to be Swan 2.0 ie a surplus is just over the hill ie next year.
“ Deflection”
Ha. Pot. Kettle. Much?
YOU made the claim. Now: back it up.
no doubt, you’ll have a glib ‘come back’. Which is textbook ‘deflection’.
What a charlatan you are, P1.
Cronus @ #552 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 4:02 pm
Wow, even though 1 in 6 kids and 1 in 8 adults are living in poverty …?
https://youtu.be/lOBNfKGxULM
An interesting speech by George Friedman, Ph.D., Founder and Chairman, Geopolitical Futures.
A few billion on either side of a back in black is neither here nor there.
Back in Black Fibber Frydenberg is writhing in the dustbin of history.
What IS here is a trillion dollar debt millstone and a deranged climate.
Earlwood:
Quite right – the JG is mainly a guarantee of min-wage jobs for all who want to work (i.e. they turn up and are not delinquent on the job), and moreover of appropriate and non-precarious jobs – old-style janitors being an example: both appropriate to the (low but not zero) skill level of typical incumbents and non-precarious (the job “goes with the building” as long as it is adequately performed). The latter is very important – precariousness of employment is a huge problem for min-wage workers, much less so for higher paid, the in the current system it is the min-wage workers whose jobs are most often precarious.
How good is the Tassie Jackjumpers setup ..!
Have been watching their game against NZ. Great venue, great crowd & great atmosphere. Well done !
Helps that Princess Mary and her clan are in the stands as well cheering madly. 😆
Andrew_Earlwood @ #553 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 4:08 pm
More deflection. Try responding to the actual issue instead of just trying to deflect attention away from it with your usual insults and petty snark.
I have laid out several times in previous posts what I would prefer to see funded using the revenue from scrapping the stage three tax cuts. But forget about my personal preferences – here is a reasonably comprehensive list of possibilities that you can choose from:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2022/aug/26/scrapping-stage-three-3-tax-cuts-would-save-243bn-how-would-you-spend-it-calculator-interactive
Please let us all know what you choose.
EGT – Working Nation was far more than a guarantee of min-wage jobs. It was the ‘end game’ that would have tied all of the H-K Government reforms together and ensured that all of the prosperity gains from the economy that government created didn’t just ‘trickle down’ but were driven to directly benefit everybody. Nobody would have been denied a well trained and high paid job. Indeed the period 1994-97 was a golden age – our own petite antipodean jobs market holocene – before Howard and Costello scrapped the lot in favour of papering over the skills shortages by abusing s.457 visas and plundering the skills base of developing countries around the world.
there is a massive skills shortage NOW. There are still hundreds of thousands of unemployed – and underemployed – Australians who would benefit from a Working nation scheme (some are no doubt indolent and feckless, but most just want a far crack at the whip). We do not need to limit ourselves to talking about minimum wage jobs: there are good paying, skilled jobs going begging ATM.
That you are a simple fool is obvious for all to see P1. I have addressed the issue in depth. Your challenge is to identify a single service that will be cut in consequence of the S3 tax cuts.
Off you go now.
clem attlee:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 11:06 am
[‘Wow!. People are shocked that their sporting icon was a right wing, bigoted authoritarian arse hole. Who knew? Well really just about everybody. Search up what Bill O’Reilly thought of the prick.’]
Season’s Greetings old clem. Apparently, Bradman did have a few redeeming qualities. I think it was Boerwar who posted that he did have empathy for indigenous Australians and that he was agin Apartheid. But his letter to Fraser, a mere two days after the “Dismissal”, showed his true colours. Little wonder that the wily Howard worshipped the ground he stood on.
And as claimed by the very determined historian Jenny Hocking and apropos of the establishment coup more generally, the new king of Oz wrote to Kerr in the following terms:
“Please don’t lose heart,” the letter reportedly shows Prince Charles, then 27, writing to Kerr. “What you did last year was right and the courageous thing to do – and most Australians seemed to endorse your decision when it came to the point.”
The letter, which has not been independently verified by Guardian Australian, goes on to urge Kerr not to listen to those protesting against the decision to dismiss the Labor prime minister.
“I hope you do not worry too much about these sorts of demonstrations and stupidities… I mention all this just in case you may be getting somewhat depressed or dejected.”]
When the king of Australia & his consort visit Oz, most likely after their May coronation, I do hope the rage is maintained. The problem is, however, most of the politically aware in ’75 are either in their grave or fairly close to it, including yours verily.
As an aside, I’d like to see a poll on the monarchial system compared to the republican model. And it should be noted that the disgraced Prince Andrew attended a church service on Christmas Day at Sandringham, even seen to be shaking the hands of those who still revere genuflection and courtesying their betters. We can do better!
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/king-royals-walkabout-sandringham-christmas-day-church-service-andrew-b1049367.html
Nick and Amy from the guardian may be nice people P1, but they are completely witless when writing that article. All they do is establish a set of binary ‘choices’, without even considering whether the revenue forgone from S3 can be amply replaced by other means.
As it turns out – and as I have argued, it can.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #561 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 4:35 pm
Yet more deflection.
We are all looking forward to your answer, AE.
I reckon even Bradman would decry S3 as utterly irresponsible and terrible policy.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #563 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 4:40 pm
Sure it can. So easy to find a lazy $257 billion slipped down the back of the parliamentary couch. Happens all the time.
Except that … wait a minute … surely this means that whatever you find stuffed down there could be spent in addition to that $257 billion we would recover from scrapping those regressive stage three tax cuts?
So you are saying we could afford a half a trillion or so in additional spending? Why, that would pay for everything on that list plus a few dozen stealth bombers and nuclear submarines.
So, by all means, go for it! Can’t wait!
Wombat:
Huh? What? All computation is subject to the halting problem in exactly the same way, because it is always the same model of computation (that of a Turing machine). The difference (as you are perhaps saying) is (only) efficiency.
– https://ubiquity.acm.org/article.cfm?id=1921573
– https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=1121
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 2:27 pm
@cronus:
“ In terms of my Tesla I have only one gripe. Tesla appear to have no intent to move to V2G anytime in the near future and provide no explanation why ( I understand of course they are wanting to sell more Powerwall Batteries).”
You have just answered your own question. Without V2G / V2L charging you will likley need to travel close to 200,000km in your Telsa to ‘break even’ with a a comparable ICE vehicle (ie. something like a BMW Series 3 or Mercedes C class)*. With V2L charging you might be able to do that on about a third of the kilometres used.
* based on an assumption of an average of $1.70 per litre of petrol vs electricity charges staying within inflation.
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Agree entirely, at $10k it simply doesn’t make economic sense.
I’m probably also looking at that cost being far less in the future but also the concept of maximising the capability of an asset. Not absolutely necessary of course. The priority in any case in my mind is the grid and its ability to cope with additional power being pumped back into it. If even just a proportion of the thousands of EVs that may be added annually for the next decade were to send power back into the grid this would require substantial upgrades to the grid. AEMO has plenty on its plate I suspect without this being a priority prior to 2030.
c@t
Thanks for link to Friedman talk.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 3:54 pm
The first even remotely realistic-looking numbers (albeit still partial) for the pandemic in a single province:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282586.shtml
Elsewhere there are around half a dozen articles related to the pandemic in ‘The Global Times’:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/
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I noticed one article referring to a patient increase of 14 times. This must surely be requiring temporary/tent facilities or similar which would be very difficult to warm in Winter temperatures bordering on zero degrees. And do they really have sufficient ventilators and associated equipment to cope with such large numbers?
Player One @ #563 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 4:33 pm
1. Give Aged Care workers 25% payrise.
2. Electrify homes to reduce emissions
3. Solar power for public and indigenous housing
4. Restore funding to defunded peak bodies
5. Emergency relief for power bills
6. Fairer early education in Indigenous communities
7. Add mental health to Medicare
8. Boost preventative healthcare
9. Help farmers become more sustainable
10. Establish a regional mental health workforce
11. Early intervention for regional workers’ mental health
12. Raise jobseeker to $88 a day
13. Raise carer payment to $88 a day
14. Build enough social housing to meet demand
15. Increase commonwealth rent assistance by 30%
Cronus
In answer to your last question, it is probably highly uneven across China. The smaller and more remote population centres are going to be in diabolical.
Rex Douglas:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 4:49 pm
[‘I reckon even Bradman would decry S3 as utterly irresponsible and terrible policy.’]
I very much doubt it, Rex. Bradman was seriously enmeshed with capitalism, where profit was/is the determinative factor. He did very well in a time when most cricketers didn’t:
https://www.raineandhorne.com.au/news/news-media/bradman-family-retreat-to-sell-after-62-year-innings
Will slivowitz trigger yet another essentially meaningless Balkan tragedy?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/27/serbia-puts-troops-on-high-alert-as-tensions-with-kosovo-rise
C@T
“ That drone footage into the fuel depot tank was something else!”
One of my two greatest fears in the early weeks of East Timor was an RPG attack (only one soldier required) on our holdings of fuel which couldn’t at the time be dispersed and which comprised numerous 20,000l bladders. I knew if successfully attacked they would disappear in a flash leaving nothing behind. Virtually impossible to defend. Furthermore, without the fuel helicopters, Bushmasters and trucks merely become paperweights.
Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 4:07 pm
Cronus, if Dr Jim wanted or expected to announce a budget surplus do you really think they would have let the news slink out just before Christmas? It’s more likely to be Swan 2.0 ie a surplus is just over the hill ie next year.
———————————————————————————————
Merely thinking out aloud. And in any case who would make prognostications about the economy six months from now, it’s an eternity as Joshy found out.
Surplus largely off the back of enabling the worlds worst emitters with our fossil fuel exports and leaving behind those living in poverty. Well done.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 4:09 pm
https://youtu.be/lOBNfKGxULM
An interesting speech by George Friedman, Ph.D., Founder and Chairman, Geopolitical Futures.
——————————————————————————————-
Sounds like worthwhile listening for tomorrow morning’s exercise.
This makes a break from the Chicommie propaganda spewed out on a daily basis in the Global Times.
https://english.pravda.ru/world/155288-putin_ukraine_future/
Novo Galicia will be allowed to exist provided the EU drops its sanctions against Russia.
Earlwood
Yes that’s quite interesting. As you may recall, in the Roosevelt administration (on which, along with the Attlee government, all good governments such as Curtin-Chifley and Hawke-Keating are based) there was the unusual problem of a large numbers of unemployed people with Mathematics PhDs. The solution was to put these people to work in documenting Mathematics in convenient reference forms, producing—inter alia—the Handbook of Mathematical Functions. So-appropriate work guaranteed at all skill levels, even PhD (and likewise for artists etc, though of course how these were assessed is problematic). An extended jobs guarantee operating at all levels can address this, and it is logical to do so (the state has spent $$$ training someone with a Maths PhD, letting that go to waste is illogical). What it can’t do is train someone with aptitude to be a janitor, to instead be a rocket surgeon.
A-E and EGT
The essential problem with your consideration is that the international labour market is porous to a massive extent.
Socrates @ Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 8:29 am:
================
Socrates, just one minor revision to your post:
“In Ukraine, both sides have now said they are willing to negotiate. Both have set conditions. Russia has set ones which Ukraine can’t meet without signing its own death warrant; Ukraine has set ones which Putin cannot meet without signing HIS own death warrant. So war goes on.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/26/ukraine-aims-for-un-backed-peace-summit-with-russia-in-february
Meanwhile the US announcement of sending Patriot SAMs will not make much difference. It is one system being sent. So one city or power plant gets defended.
BUT: it signals clearly to Russia that the US is only going more all-in, and so Russia will always be significantly out-resourced in this war.
The Age 27/12
Waiting times to have a dispute heard at the Victorian legal tribunal – which is tasked with being “timely and efficient” – have stretched to months and, in the worst cases, years.
Renters were hit particularly hard by delays at the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal in 2022, with disputes between landlords and tenants taking months to be heard rather than a few weeks, as was once the case.
_____________________
Fucking fix it Andrews. It’s all happened under your watch.
No more wfh at VCAT until the backlog is cleared. It will be fixed in no time.
Quasar
Regarding the home battery, as you say prices have not come down, which is supply and demand, not anything to do with cost.
Regarding the size of battery, this demends on the balance of your electricity use through the day. The bigger the battery the more you can store, but there is no point getting a much bigger battery than the power your solar panels would daily generate. A company called Zen Energy here in Adelaide actually took our power records for some previous quarters, and did an estimate on the optimal size of battery for us. At that time the 10 kWhr battery was our best option.
If you plan to eliminate any gas you use with more solar panels, you might want the battery to be bigger.
Cronussays:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 12:44 pm
In terms of my Tesla I have only one gripe. Tesla appear to have no intent to move to V2G anytime in the near future and provide no explanation why ( I understand of course they are wanting to sell more Powerwall Batteries)
—————————————-
The others players involved seem less than enthusiastic as well.
It is so obvious it is hard to see why all players will not get on board eventually(with a little shove from consumers).
It’s a massive bonus that those with covid or ill-health can work from home if possible rather than not working at all.
Andrews is not much progresive then albanese it seenms some poasters would prefer the liberals in power then a not to progresive labor government
in stead of the sky news talking points maybi borwer might actualy realise that we should look at recognizing palistine given the extremist new israile government the country has at least albanese is slightly moore progresive then hawke and keating that gave us the murdock controled media thanks to graham richardson
Working Nation 2.0 would require a healthy education system. Our vocational training sector is not what it was in the 90s.
Boerwar @ Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 3:44 pm:
“I imagine that Ukraine is going to sign nothing with Russia without something like US or NATO forces based in Ukraine to act as a trigger should Putin come around for another bite at the cherry.”
================
BW, that is right. Ukraine has no reason whatsoever to trust in any ceasefire/peace with Russia as being viewed by Russia as anything other than a chance to replenish forces for another invasion. Witness Budapest 1994.
Crimea/Donbas 2014 was the arch betrayal of that agreement by Russia – with the hand-wringing complicity of the US and UK. Everything that has happened since flows directly from that betrayal.
The US/NATO must make it impossible for future encroachments by Russia, by guaranteeing inevitable catastrophe to Russia if they attack Ukraine again.
Posted before reading all the follow up posts on V2G.
I have no doubt battery cost will continue on the current trend downwards.
Tony Seba has laid out his expectations very clearly.
NYT
George Santos Admits to Lying About College and Work History
The congressman-elect confirmed The New York Times’s findings that he had not graduated from college or worked at two major Wall Street firms, as he had claimed.
“My sins here are embellishing my résumé,”
I guess he embellishes like Trump
Noticed the police comitioner has publicly backed perrottits cashlis card foor pockies the police would know who is paticipating in money laundering and the comitioner should stay out of politics and not effectively indorse one side leading up to an election campaign the comitioner does not seem to have a problim with crowns money laundering even though perrottit granted the casino a lisence desbite the regulator recomending against
Boerwar @ #579 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 5:21 pm
Which almost no-one here would ever see if you did not re-post their links multiple times each and every day.
Has it never occurred to you that you are doing the “Chicommies” you apparently hate so much a tremendous service?
borer you only one that seems to poast the chinease properganda via the global times you seem to be premoting them with your ddaley anti china campaign at least there is no repetative the greens are the real enimy not thelnp voice busters nonsence today
ddoes any body remember the arib spring when a islamick government took over thesome uni protesters and the us backed the military to over throw there democrasy the us does not care about democrasy any way covid has effectid many countries not just the country that the anti china folksold our asets to before they used china to attack labor
Aaron newton @ #595 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 5:46 pm
We could talk more about Labors social fairness policies if we didn’t have the Global Times articles to distract us.
‘Aaron newton says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 5:46 pm
borer you only one that seems to poast the chinease properganda via the global times you seem to be premoting them with your ddaley anti china campaign at least there is no repetative the greens are the real enimy not thelnp voice busters nonsence today’
———————————
I believe that it is more than useful to post what the Chicommies and the Putinistas are telling themselves. It adds a bit of balance to the almost total dominance of the Murdoch minions in Australia, for example.
Aussie peaceniks would notice, for example, that there is never a single daily issue of the Global Times that does not includes some militaristic jingoism by the Chicommies. The point is that they seriously see war as a means of solving problems.
I just have to laugh with a large degree of enjoyment at the ‘repetition’ meme that has taken off on Bludger, entirely without irony, I presume.
I know! Let’s stick it to the SDA some more. But what about Palestine, the US and uh… the UBI!
Just on the mindset of media
The screaming headline is delays on the Westgate Bridge – of up to 90 minutes
BUT
In driving around Melbourne for the last 3 months or more there has been electronic messaging advising that from Xmas and thru January there would be 90 minute delays on the West Gate Bridge due to repair works
Media could have performed a public service
But no
Instead we get the screaming headline and images of traffic banked up
So who are the idiots?
Media?
Some people?
Or both?
My answer to my question is both
The uneducated telling their fellow uneducated what they do not know
And just in regard China and War, who threatened China with War?
The former Australian Federal Government comes to mind – the very same political party that took us to War IN Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan (all of which were lost)
Boer:
1 – There is a no logical or conceptual problem with restricting it to citizens, and indeed I would go slightly further and exclude voluntary dual/multiple citizens etc.
2 – Buildings best served by live-in janitors are 100% resistant to off-shoring.