As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).
Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.
Boerwar complaining about repetition. That’s rich.
Socrates says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 1:22 pm
I agree the Stage 3 tax cuts are economically and socially undesirable.
However I do not want Labor to lose government over them.
Albo has been pretty smart so far. I trust he will act when the time is right to limit the damage from S3, and the political damage for taking any part of them back.
______________________________________
The smart thing to do is to introduce tax cuts in the 2024 budget, label them the revised Stage 3 tax cuts and focus on low to middle income earners, with nothing for high income earners.
The fact is that in this period of high inflation, people who get pay increases that barely keep pace with inflation, or don’t at all, will need tax cuts just to get them back to where they are now. As long as the bulk of taxpayers get as much as or more than they would have gotten under the currently legislated stage 3, it will be impossible for the opposition to convince most voters that Labor has dudded them.
The important thing, that the stooge trolls here don’t get, is that people earning $100k or less NEED tax cuts.
Asked for an uncomplimentary comment on Bradman, I believe that O’Reilly said: “You don’t piss on statues, son.” O’Reilly hated the prick.
Socrates: “The V2G devices are not very complex, have been trialled, and as per the link I posted are now approved and on sale in SA.”
The issue isn’t just the connection to the grid, it’s the demand management software that will need to be run on the AEMO side for an increasing number of sporadically accessible large batteries. They’re just now getting the VPP stuff running, and that’s linking to batteries that the power utility knows the capacity of, and more importantly, can curtail.
We’re going to get there, but I don’t think the next generation of V2G controllers will look anything like what they look like now. Just like there was no problem adding solar capacity when it was new, as soon as it reached a critical mass, AEMO wouldn’t add new capacity to the grid unless the suppliers implemented demand management capability that allows them to curtail it if necessary.
It would already be a problem if all of the even the existing EVs had this capability. There wouldn’t be enough strength in the grid to be able to utilise the energy. Until all those batteries that were just announced get built, it likely won’t, either.
I just don’t see V2G being driven by consumers, at least for the next 4-5 years.
Socrates says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 12:52 pm
Cronus
Agreed re V2G. When you consider the average Australian (not very efficient) house consumes around 20 kWhr of energy per day, and even a small EV will have a 50 to 60 kWhr battery, it is the perfect solution.
Out Leaf will come with V2G wiring installed, but the Nissan approved Wallbox Quasar V2G charging box is priced at $10k.
https://www.nissan.com.au/about-nissan/news-and-events/news/2022/Dec/the-vehicle-to-grid-revolution-ha-arrived-in-australia.html
I don’t agree.
The average suburban user, uses a car for a daily commute, with a typical charge of about 20kWh required overnight to recover.
With a 5 KW charger this can be delivered over 4 hours. Shifting this charge away form peak time ( tea time) and charging after bed time makes a lot of sense.
The cooking load is the most difficult domestic load because it happens when the sun don’t shine.
Installing the equipment needed to discharge at peak times costs in both equipment and install ( the voltage drop allowed for supply is less than load), and really brings little advantage as the grid is already developed enough to take the cooking load.
The grids big problem is early in the morning when the car is not there to discharge. The grid is far better of with a battery that is always there.
Tesla is right.
Edit to add.
All these fast charging schemes use DC from plug to car, there is a lot of electronics to convert DC to AC that can be fed into the grid. Do not expect the $10,000 to come down.
LR
Thanks for link.
Albanese is a self confessed free marketeer, neo liberal. His government is not going to reform much of substance, but it will offer feel good social reform for the luvvies. The only decent government in the country is the Andrews Labor government. If Albanese had only half of Andrew’s chutzpah, he would be indeed. fortunate.
billie: “Liberal voting teams in aged care homes”
The nutters are already in there push-selling an afterlife, so it’s really just a case of product differentiation.
billie @ #365 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 12:44 pm
If you don’t have a permanent job in the Australian economy, virtually all of the potential employers insist that you have an ABN, and they should require you to tell them which super fund they should be contributing to.
The list of job types I set out is just a sample of those which my daughter has undertaken over the past few years. She and her cohort of friends survive by picking up a very wide range of gigs, some from agencies, and some by being on particular employers’ lists of casuals. Many of them are students, or recent graduates. It is difficult to pick up permanent work, because almost all potential employers require at least two years experience, which there is almost no opportunity to get.
The Royal Commission has only heard four victims’ stories as yet.
Pi, frednk
Thanks for your explanations re EVs and grids.
In that case I doubt it will be economic for us in east suburban Adelaide. We already have a home battery – 10 kWhr LG.
“O’Reilly hated the prick”
An obviously frail Bill O’Reilly accompanied Sir Donald to their childhood region of the Southern Highlands for the opening of Bradman Oval in 1989.
Socrates says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 1:50 pm
Pi, frednk
Thanks for your explanations re EVs and grids.
In that case I doubt it will be economic for us in east suburban Adelaide. We already have a home battery – 10 kWhr LG.
And that makes a lot of sense as you can charge the home battery with solar during the day and use the energy to charge you car at night.
Living the dream Socrates.
Socrates and Pi
“ The technology is all there. We just need the standards and regulation to catch up so that it is not such a bespoke job each time. Then the price should plunge.”
This was my understanding too. The technology is apparently (I’m electrically ignorant) not so difficult though connecting into the grid and potential ramifications and appropriate standards are still to be worked out. Political will and state regulation should go a long way to expediting this essential step over the coming handful of years I hope. It should naturally follow the upcoming emissions standards.
Frednk
“ And that makes a lot of sense as you can charge the home battery with solar during the day and use the energy to charge you car at night.”
Yes that was the plan. We have had the Leaf on order for ten months.
Pi
“Living the dream”
Yes we want to be a net zero household. Or at least use the air con guilt free on a hot summers day. Plus I can criticise LNP energy policy without any hypocrisy.
David Warner has scored his first century since 2020, producing a Boxing Day Test epic to defy his critics and turn his 100th Test into a true celebration.
@cronus:
“ In terms of my Tesla I have only one gripe. Tesla appear to have no intent to move to V2G anytime in the near future and provide no explanation why ( I understand of course they are wanting to sell more Powerwall Batteries).”
You have just answered your own question. Without V2G / V2L charging you will likley need to travel close to 200,000km in your Telsa to ‘break even’ with a a comparable ICE vehicle (ie. something like a BMW Series 3 or Mercedes C class)*. With V2L charging you might be able to do that on about a third of the kilometres used.
* based on an assumption of an average of $1.70 per litre of petrol vs electricity charges staying within inflation.
@P1:
“ The stage three tax cuts are indefensible. They are bad for Australia in general, as well as being very bad for some groups of Australians in particular, due to the services that will have to be cut as a result.”
Name the ‘services that will have to cut as a result [of S3 tax cuts]’.
Off you go now.
Australia is on the verge of a budget surplus. Get those Back in Black mugs out of the coalition cupboard.
@TPOF:
“ The smart thing to do is to introduce tax cuts in the 2024 budget, label them the revised Stage 3 tax cuts and focus on low to middle income earners, with nothing for high income earners.”
______
Nah, if Albo and Jimbo are going to tamper with S3, there is no political ‘win’ for Labor to cash in with in an election to be held with 9 months.
If S3 is to be tampered with, it should happen next year – 2023 – with the resultant cuts be brought forward by a financial year to ‘soften the blow’. Moreover, with the resources windfall and inflation based increases in tax take, 1 July 2023 would be a good time to start such a reset.
If we are to have a reset, then for dog’s sake, can Jim be smart enough to present the ‘deal’ as a ‘grand bargain’ whereby the approx $250 billion in cuts (over a 10 year period) are linked to equivalent ‘tax saves’ over the same timeframe (like Bowen [not his fault], Shorten and Tanya P [who were to blame]) should have done back in 2019?
For mine, a restructure resulting in tax rates along the following lines (and starting on 1 July 2023) would be worth considering:
$0-$18,600 – zero
$18,600 – $50K – 19%
$50K – $125K – 30%
$125K-$180K – 35%
$180K – $250K – 40%
$250K+ – 45%
Although much of the $180 billion p.a. in ‘tax expenditures’ are pissed up against the wall in concessions that favour real estate ownership (and hence largely politically verboten in the present climate) there are still a bunch of low hanging fruit to pick. Modified versions of the ‘saves’ Labor proposed at the 2013, 2106 and 1019 elections can be revisited. As could a global cap on the total amount of ‘tax expenditure’ boondoggles a tax payer can claim in a single year.
Edited: in anticipation of Integrity’s blatant Labor slut shaming (‘Wadda about MORE tax cuts for low income earners, boo woo .. Labor is sooooo baaaaad. Waaaaaa Waaaaaa’) in my view these issues can be better addressed by beefing up the ‘Low Income’ and “Low and Middle Income’ tax offsets. A refresher – these are the current arrangements:
https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/Income-and-deductions/Offsets-and-rebates/Low-and-middle-income-earner-tax-offsets/
Player One says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 9:17 am
BK @ #418 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 9:05 am
I had forgotten how perfectly shaped fruit and vegetables are!
______
Barney
Everything in nature is perfectly shaped for the niche in life that they have evolved to exist in.
One can’t help wondering what niche in life people like Gina Hancock, Clive Palmer and George Christensen evolved to fit in.
A very large niche, presumably.
The Phobic Player resorting to body-shaming here. Fuck-all has changed at PB. The trolls still prowl, dispensing shame. How routinely, drearily, sneeringly, all-purposely baleful they are. Whatever the faults of those mentioned by the Phobic One, their bodies are beside the point.
We’re all 2 something. Or not. 2 young, 2 old, 2 fat, 2 thin, 2 fit, 2 unfit, 2 lined, 2 smooth, 2 black, 2 white, 2 rich, 2 poor, not rich enough, not short enough, not tall enough, not poor enough, not hungry enough, 2 lifted, 2 pink, 2 round, 2 square, 2 this, 2 that, 2 little, 2 loud, 2 quiet, too hairy, too cut, 2 goth, too taboo. Too urban, too country, 2 rocked. 2 good 2 be true. 2 true.
But not too sepia. There’s not enough sepia.
Holdenhillbilly
“ Australia is on the verge of a budget surplus. Get those Back in Black mugs out of the coalition cupboard.”
Chalmers might care to have one of those mugs subtly next to the speakers position on the central table in parliament when he delivers the next budget.
I’m sure Dutton will be the first to congratulate him.
Billy the Goat says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 2:48 pm
Player One says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 9:17 am
BK @ #418 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 9:05 am
I had forgotten how perfectly shaped fruit and vegetables are!
______
Barney
Everything in nature is perfectly shaped for the niche in life that they have evolved to exist in.
One can’t help wondering what niche in life people like Gina Hancock, Clive Palmer and George Christensen evolved to fit in.
A very large niche, presumably.
The Phobic Player resorting to body-shaming here. Fuck-all has changed at PB. The trolls still prowl, dispensing shame. How routinely, drearily, sneeringly, all-purposely baleful they are. Whatever the faults of those mentioned by the Phobic One, their bodies are beside the point.
We’re all 2 something. Or not. 2 young, 2 old, 2 fat, 2 thin, 2 fit, 2 unfit, 2 lined, 2 smooth, 2 black, 2 white, 2 rich, 2 poor, not rich enough, not short enough, not tall enough, not poor enough, not hungry enough, 2 lifted, 2 pink, 2 round, 2 square, 2 this, 2 that, 2 little, 2 loud, 2 quiet, too hairy, too cut, 2 goth, too taboo. Too urban, too country, 2 rocked. 2 good 2 be true. 2 true.
中华人民共和国
I don’t mind people having a dig at me. For my appearance or how I think. They can bugger off for all I care.
But as my old man says “if they are having a dig at me they are leaving some other poor bugger alone”.
Crisp and clear in Narita today. Was o degrees on waking. Tokyo tonight and snow tomorrow. Safe all.
Cheers Upwards.
A sunny 25 degrees with a friendly SW breeze in Inglewood. My focus has been elsewhere for some weeks, so I’ve spared myself the spite, the malice and the contempt that passes for conversation between the trolls.
They sicken the air.
I might stay away for good and all.
frednk says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 1:57 pm
Socrates says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 1:50 pm
Pi, frednk
Thanks for your explanations re EVs and grids.
In that case I doubt it will be economic for us in east suburban Adelaide. We already have a home battery – 10 kWhr LG.
And that makes a lot of sense as you can charge the home battery with solar during the day and use the energy to charge you car at night.
——————————————————————————————-
Thanks, I’ll give this a bit more consideration. I enjoy the expert information that provide alternative and often more accurate information on PB.
Heatwave to last another 12 hours in SA: Goolwa 41/Adelaide 39/Normanville 39/Mt Lofty 34.
Temp dropped 15 degrees in Nullabor in an hour as the change rolls east.
“Boerwar complaining about repetition. That’s rich.”
But in no way surprising.
But what about Palestine and the UBI?
You can buy anything these days on the internet…
Sydney plane built from experimental kit, crash investigators find
A two-seater plane that crashed south of Sydney, killing its occupants, was built from a kit, crash investigators say.
Investigators from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau are expected to pore over the wreckage over coming days after arriving at the crash site in Appin this afternoon.
The plane collided with terrain and sparked a grass fire about 3pm yesterday.
Two bodies were later found in the wreckage of the Subaru-powered Glasair Super II.
The plane had earlier been near Goulburn, but where it took off from and whether it was to land at a small airstrip in Appin was undetermined, the ATSB said.
Chief commissioner Angus Mitchell said:
We do know that it was a small two-seater, single engine, kit-built experimental aircraft initially coming out of the United States.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/dec/27/australia-news-live-heatwave-floods-river-murray-drownings-car-crash-plane-water-safety-heat-weather-emergency-fire-warning
spr
‘The plane collided with terrain…’
In the old days they just hit the ground…
“But what about Palestine and the UBI?”
Lol I’ll go find a toddler to tell to clean up their toys, less complaint more intelligent conversation.
Have a great day buddy.
That sunfish took a huge amount of time to grow that big. Stupid yacht.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/dec/27/australia-news-live-heatwave-floods-river-murray-drownings-car-crash-plane-water-safety-heat-weather-emergency-fire-warning#top-of-blog
WWP
But what about Palestine?
Ta fer the link C@t. Economics stuff has been coming for a while i think Interesting the recruitment ads at the end i thought. Sad though. I know it happens every war. Go to war …… and of course bad things only happen to other people…. send the $ home and look after the family and if you do get topped then the fam is ok because of the insurance $. But, with the economic crap happening in Russia wont surprise me to see many families never getting paid.
That war is going no-where good for Russia in 2023. Really, just a question of how bad.
And on the “lets negotiate” thing. Saw this on Twitter:
@MarkHertling
to @PamelaBrownCNN
: “I’ve negotiated with some of [#Putin’s] military officers, his generals. First of all, they lie. Secondly, they will never negotiate evenly. And thirdly, if they do negotiate and you think you have a deal, they will renege on that deal.”
Deutsche Bank ,Trump and debt. 7 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSitfTcthq8
Billy the Goat says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 3:03 pm
Cheers Upwards.
A sunny 25 degrees with a friendly SW breeze in Inglewood. My focus has been elsewhere for some weeks, so I’ve spared myself the spite, the malice and the contempt that passes for conversation between the trolls.
They sicken the air.
I might stay away for good and all.
中华人民共和国
Jump back in when you feel like cobber. One of the coldest experiences in my life was at Inglewood. But the Rum warmed things up. You all good in my books.
clem attlee @ #452 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 1:47 pm
I’d like to see Dan Andrews, great Victorian Premier that he is, win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives from all the States and Territories, as Anthony Albanese just did. I simply don’t think it possible.
imacca @ #479 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 3:31 pm
My pleasure, imacca. 🙂
That drone footage into the fuel depot tank was something else!
Also, as far as negotiated deals with Russia goes, isn’t the breaking of such a deal between Ukraine and Russia what motivated Putin to give the go ahead for the war? Yes, indeedy!
I often speculate on what 20 years of Putin demanding his people listen to ‘Up is down’ and to those who have made their careers out of it? Has it permanently altered the way their neurons are configured and will they ever be able to recover from it?
imacca
There are three possible outcomes:
A total victory by Russia in which Russia controls all Ukraine territory and decides what happens in that territory.
A total victory by Ukraine. Russia is behind 2014 borders, has lost totally the will to fight and is paying Ukraine a huge war indemnity.
The third is a negotiated outcome that reflects neither Russia nor Ukraine achieving total victory.
On the balance of probabilities the third outcome is more likely than either of the other two.
The problem, as you identify, is negotiating with bad faith player(s). In practice the progress of any negotiations would reflect both sides’ appreciation of progress of the war and its cumulative and potential costs.
IMO, the fact that both sides have begun talking openly about negotiations probably reflects several factors but tacitly an appreciation by both sides that neither will win a total victory.
I imagine that Ukraine is going to sign nothing with Russia without something like US or NATO forces based in Ukraine to act as a trigger should Putin come around for another bite at the cherry.
Boer:
Bit of a soft-cocked effort, in my view. How about:
“a disabled single mother with a recreational drug habit who has eleven dependent children, an intermittent income as a Internet ‘influencer”, a covert on-off relationship with one of Australia’s richest men, and an unfulfilled lifelong ambition to be a lion tamer”
The first even remotely realistic-looking numbers (albeit still partial) for the pandemic in a single province:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282586.shtml
Elsewhere there are around half a dozen articles related to the pandemic in ‘The Global Times’:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/
Boer, For someone who is obsessed with hating the Chinese communists you spend a lot of time reading Global Times. Maybe you could be the equivalent of Julia Davis with the Russian media.
Socrates,
Am having Solar Panels installed in a fortnight and wasn’t going to bother with a battery as I can charge my EV during the day.
When checking out your LG battery, I note there is a smaller battery and wonder if there are any benefits in getting that as a backstop?
My friends are all waiting for the price of batteries to drop, but we may need to wait for quite some time.
EGT
If she is in a de facto relationship with a rich person she should get herself a good lawyer.
That said she does go to the heart of my point: that the UBI cannot possibly be what it is claimed to be by various fantasists: a universal substitute for a system of graduated government-to-individual payments based on graduated needs. These tiered needs right now affect millions of Australians, including possibly your excellent hard cocked example.
The corollary? The UBI will not eliminate the inherent administrative problems exposed by, even if not exemplified by, Robodebt.
A very pleasant 38 currently in Belair.
I’ve been able to put the hoodie and beanie away today. 🙂
‘Quasar says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 3:57 pm
Socrates,
Am having Solar Panels installed in a fortnight…’
———————
If they are going on to a tiled roof, particularly if the tiles are elderly, make 100% sure that there is no sign off until the tiles have been checked for cracking – especially where the panel support struts pierce the tiled roof to become attached to the roof trusses.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, December 27, 2022 at 2:44 pm
Australia is on the verge of a budget surplus. Get those Back in Black mugs out of the coalition cupboard.
———————————————————————————————
I won’t yet hold my breath but I’d like nothing more than for Chalmers to be able to stand up on budget night and announce that in fact now, finally, the budget is back in black. A moment to savour perhaps?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #518 Tuesday, December 27th, 2022 – 2:30 pm
Deflection.