Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

A late federal polling entry for the Financial Review records a slightly narrow Labor lead than other pollsters, while recording strong support for an Indigenous voice and a cap on gas prices.

One last federal voting intention poll for the year, it seems, contrary to the expectations expressed in my previous post. This one is a poll for the Financial Review from Freshwater Strategy, which has previous conducted New South Wales and Victorian state polls for the paper, the latter of which made a pretty good stab at the result three weeks out. This poll has Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, with Labor at the Coalition at 37% apiece on the primary vote, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 4%. Anthony Albanese records a favourable rating of 48% and unfavourable of 30%, while Peter Dutton is on 29% and 38%, with Albanese leading 55-29 on preferred prime minister.

The poll also finds support for an Indigenous voice at 50% with 26% opposed, with 63% saying they were aware of the proposed referendum compared with 37% for unaware. Forty per cent believed voters had sufficient information, with 50% saying they did not. Other findings related to the proposed cap on gas prices, which was supported by 56% and opposed by 20%. Sixty per cent expressed support for extracting and using more domestic gas with 22% opposed; given a head-to-head choice between a cap on prices and increasing the supply of energy, the result was an effective tie at 40% to 39%. An issue salience question produced the familiar finding that cost-of-living was far and away the greatest concern, with 71% choosing it when asked to offer three responses.

The poll was conducted online from Friday to Sunday with a sample of 1209.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,895 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Now that it is Labor negotiating with China, you never hear about the Uyghurs

    We dont know what is being said to China by our politicians and diplomats behind closed doors. Megaphone diplomacy (by both sides) can use and abuse such topics for selfish ends and it just worsens divides.

    But yes, I would like to see the issue more in the spotlight by our media and other actors. However, this normally follows a finding or published material by a respected organisation – so maybe that hasnt happened for a little while.

  2. I don’t think BW has mentioned the Uyghurs since the May election. I guess he doesn’t want to hold Labor to account for being complicit in what’s happening there.

  3. BK @ #23 Tuesday, December 20th, 2022 – 7:22 am

    The bluffs of two of the most powerful industries in Australia have been called – one each by each side of politics. Federal Labor has taken on the fossils of the fossil fuel industry and the NSW Liberals have taken on the gaming industry. It is a significant power shift, writes Crispin Hull who says it’s now time to meet the military with political resistance.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8024660/when-the-going-gets-tough-call-their-bluff/?cs=14258

    Given the price of wet lettuce leaves this year, it is certain we will all end up paying more in the long run. Or perhaps they used some of those hallucinogenic spinach leaves? That would also explain a few things.

    On another note, I see there are those keen to enlarge the GAPS (Great Australian Ponzi Scheme) …

    Australia is failing to tap into a talented workforce already in the country, according to two analyses of the country’s immigration system, and increasing overseas migration will bring billions more in economic growth. Rachel Clun reports that KPMG found lifting net overseas migration by a total 265,000 over the next five years would boost the Australian economy by up to $35 billion. In its submission to the government’s immigration review, the firm also recommended creating better pathways to permanency for foreign students.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/calls-for-migration-system-refresh-as-australia-grapples-with-skills-crisis-20221219-p5c7ht.html

    I especially love the touch that we ask foreign students to come here, pay for their own education, then we let the best and brightest become taxpayers while sending the duffers back home. What a wonderful humanitarian country we are – always willing to help (ourselves).

  4. Russia is much weaker now than on Feb 24

    They have more troops. Not well trained or equipped. More troops can increase the demand on Ukrainian troops along that long border with incursions that have no other point but to absorb resources. To be significant they have to be able to threaten deeper incursions. Not sure if they have this capability. Some experts suggest not. Which might explain the visit to Minsk.

  5. Nath’s another nasty piece of work. The last time Labor was in power it was criticised by Dame Jewellery Asbestos- and other LNP frontbenchers – for granting visas to Uighar activists and for encouraging criticism of Beijing on human rights generally. PM Rudd even gave a speech raising human rights issues in Beijing.

    The Liberals only ‘discovered’ the Uighars when it was convenient for them to jump on board the ‘counter China’ bandwagon back in late 2017, and not before. Labor on the other hand has never had to play ‘catch up’ and has always sought a balanced relationship that didn’t suppress raising HR issues. Nothing that has happened in the last 6 months gives credence to nasty nath’s claims that Labor will sink HR issues – including the plight of the Uighars – to the bottom of the ocean. If ‘we’ dont hear about the Uighars it will be because the media have grown tired of treating them as ‘a thing’ and will revert to their pre 2013 position of simply ignoring the issue.

  6. “I don’t think BW has mentioned the Uyghurs since the May election. I guess he doesn’t want to hold Labor to account for being complicit in what’s happening there.”

    In what way is Labor complicit in the plight of the Uighars? In what way should Labor be ‘held to account’.

    What a flog you are.

  7. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, December 20, 2022 at 9:18 am

    “I don’t think BW has mentioned the Uyghurs since the May election. I guess he doesn’t want to hold Labor to account for being complicit in what’s happening there.”

    In what way is Labor complicit in the plight of the Uighars? In what way should Labor be ‘held to account’.

    What a flog you are.
    ____________
    I’m not suggesting they are. Just pointing out that BW had some pretty high standards as to complicity with the Chinese government. Standards he has abandoned since May.

  8. Comment on twitter. At this point anything is possible.

    ——–
    So Elon Musk banned ElonJet, right before ElonJet flew Jared Kushner & a plane full of US Classified Documents to Qatar. Do I got that one right???

  9. The Republic of Georgia has not applied sanctions against Russia, and it seems that is a popular decision with 65% support and only 25% against.

    https://agenda.ge/en/news/2022/4953

    That is, if you believe it.
    The Georgian Dream government is often criticised for talking ‘pro- Europe’s and anti-Russian, but being much closer to Moscow in practice.

  10. On the differences in educational attainment with boys and girls.

    Possibly the better questions for the system as a whole is whether we are realising the potential of all students as best we can, and what are the consequences if we don’t?

    Just this week we had Universities Australia pushing for international students to be granted easier pathways to permanent migration. While there was a lot of self-serving nonsense behind it, implicit in their argument that despite the large proliferation of degrees, in some fields we are not producing the quality of skills the workforce needs. In my view, a lot of these fields are male dominated and while female participation is increasing, it’s just not making up the shortfall from the drop in quality of the males.
    I’m not sure why this is and I accept that education is an incredibly complex system. But in my opinion we’re at a point where we’re addressing the consequences of a systemic problem in education when we need to be addressing the cause.

  11. You know how much nath cares about the Uyghurs? zero. To him they are nothing more than a narrative instrument in order to push an idelogical opposition to the ALP.

  12. Jan 6 committee took evidence from “Trump political adviser” Hope Hicks, described in NYT as..

    Hope Hicks, a senior adviser to Mr. Trump in two different stints of his presidency as well as in his 2016 campaign

    Wiki..
    Hicks began her media and communications career as a teenage model and, after college and a couple years’ work in public relations, became an employee of the Trump Organization.

    In August 2014, Hicks joined the Trump Organization full-time.[16] She worked for Ivanka Trump inside Trump Tower, helping expand her fashion label (the Ivanka Trump Collection) and modeling for her online store.

    What a farce … the Instagram generation sure know how to exaggerate their importance.

    One can expect no action from the DOJ

  13. “nath says:
    Tuesday, December 20, 2022 at 9:13 am
    I don’t think BW has mentioned the Uyghurs since the May election. I guess he doesn’t want to hold Labor to account for being complicit in what’s happening there.”

    In which way is Labor complicit for whatever happens in China? Does Albo dictate to Xi? Albo is a powerful PM, I know, but even I don’t believe that he is “that powerful”!!

    In any event, your Uyghurs try has been exhausted, look for another “Labor failure” so we can keep this conversation interesting. You don’t want to bore your readers, do you nath?
    🙂

  14. Why are whitefellas wringing their hands about minor differences in outcomes between genders (only two of them?) while there are still huge (and overlapping) gulfs between rich and poor student outcomes and between Indigenous and non-Indigenous outcomes.

    What about the Voice?

  15. PaulTu @ #61 Tuesday, December 20th, 2022 – 8:52 am

    The Republic of Georgia has not applied sanctions against Russia, and it seems that is a popular decision with 65% support and only 25% against.

    https://agenda.ge/en/news/2022/4953

    That is, if you believe it.
    The Georgian Dream government is often criticised for talking ‘pro- Europe’s and anti-Russian, but being much closer to Moscow in practice.

    Russian troops were within 50km of Tblisi during the 2008 war. South Ossetian troops are part of the Russian army (and some under full Russian control). Georgia have lost Abkhazia and restricted to a small strip of Black Sea coast. And Russians have flooded into Georgia since the Ukraine war. Georgian independence is tenuous.

  16. “nath says:
    Tuesday, December 20, 2022 at 9:51 am
    Why has BW abandoned the Uyghurs?”

    nath, that’s Dutton’s Strategy: Being told that the Coalition is losing everywhere because they have shifted too much to the right, and therefore he should change direction, but his solution is: Insist on the same and shift even further to the right.

    Good luck, nath…. 🙂

  17. Why are whitefellas wringing their hands about minor differences in outcomes between genders

    How do you know I am white?
    I get a little pale brown in winter, I admit. I blame the mongrel british line for that.

    As for wealth inequalities at school – well, I have stopped banging on about that because I try not to repeat myself too much. I wonder tho if wealth disparity is often presented at schools in a gendered way.

  18. Taylormade says:
    “Only a mere 4 years since an Aust Foreign Minister visited China. They are trying to spin it as if it’s been 54 years.”

    As they say in the classics, “a week is a long time in politics”. A lot of damage can be done in 200 weeks.

    And ‘Wong meets Wang’ has an aesthetically elegant symmetry.

  19. ISW has made this assessment of Russia-Belarusian capability and preparedness to conduct offensives into the north of Ukraine (ie, towards Kyiv) this winter:
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-18

    “The capacity of the Russian military, even reinforced by elements of the Belarusian armed forces, to prepare and conduct effective large-scale mechanized offensive operations in the next few months remains questionable, as other analysts have observed. … Putin may nevertheless order renewed large-scale offensive operations later this winter, but it is important not to overestimate the likely capabilities of Russian or combined Russo-Belarusian forces to conduct them successfully. ISW continues to assess that it is unlikely that Lukashenko will commit the Belarusian military (which would also have to be re-equipped) to the invasion of Ukraine.”

  20. “Why are whitefellas wringing their hands about minor differences in outcomes between genders (only two of them?) while there are still huge (and overlapping) gulfs between rich and poor student outcomes and between Indigenous and non-Indigenous outcomes.

    What about the Voice?”

    Please tell me that’s intended as parody.

  21. “[Dutton’s] solution is: Insist on the same and shift even further to the right”

    Interestingly, Tory donor Lord Cruddas* proffered similarly advice to the UK Conservatives this week.

    (* Did he get to pick that name? Maybe he should ask for his £3.5 million back.)

  22. Nath

    “I don’t think BW has mentioned the Uyghurs since the May election. I guess he doesn’t want to hold Labor to account for being complicit in what’s happening there.”

    Regardless of what Boerwar thinks or says, I don’t think your claim of Labor complicity holds water. Penny Wong has made multiple public statements expressing concern about the Uighurs since May. This example is from September.
    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/penny-wong-responds-to-chinas-harrowing-treatment-of-muslim-uighurs/news-story/c01a7712dba634dd61547316f8d2a75e

  23. “ Clarkson’s daughter Emily, an author and podcast host, also hit out at her father’s comments.

    “My views are and have always been clear when it comes to misogyny, bullying and the treatment of women by the media,” she wrote on her Instagram story.

    “I want to make it very clear that I stand against everything that my dad wrote about Meghan Markle and I remain standing in support of those that are targeted with online hatred.”

    Clarkson is simply a terrible person with terrible views, a misogynist with few peers. There is some serious hate going on in this individual that needs dealing with. The Sun need to sack him too. Good on his daughter for showing such courage.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-20/clarkson-horrified-at-response-to-vile-meghan-markle-column/101790764

  24. ‘Simon Henny Penny Katich says:
    Tuesday, December 20, 2022 at 10:08 am

    Why are whitefellas wringing their hands about minor differences in outcomes between genders

    How do you know I am white?
    ….’
    Don’t know. Don’t care. It was a general comment.

  25. Oliver Sutton

    “ As they say in the classics, “a week is a long time in politics”. A lot of damage can be done in 200 weeks.”

    At least $20b worth of trade with our biggest trading partner for starters, not to mention accompanying ramifications, a perfect example of Coalition policy.

  26. I wonder if our approaching rapprochement with China will tone down the anti-China rhetoric from the usual suspects here?

    My guess is that once it is no longer a topical troll trope, we will not hear much more about China at all.

  27. Oliver Sutton says:
    Tuesday, December 20, 2022 at 10:17 am
    “[Dutton’s] solution is: Insist on the same and shift even further to the right”

    Interestingly, Tory donor Lord Cruddas* proffered similarly advice to the UK Conservatives this week.

    (* Did he get to pick that name? Maybe he should ask for his £3.5 million back.)
    ———————————————————————————————

    Baldrick, Percy and Blackadder were already taken.

  28. Albo’s mastered the art of under promise and over deliver; unlike his predecessor krudd who over promised and then gave up*…

    * the missed DD opportunity of a lifetime *sigh*

  29. Cooperating with China where we can and disagreeing where we must, a la Penny Wong, is an apt description of the only viable approach. It’s easy to reduce it to a form of words of course and much more difficult to navigate that narrow channel in practice. Not least because, based on its track record, China is unlikely to accept that any substantial disagreement with it could be legitimate or can be accommodated, and is likely to characterise any such disagreement as anti China rhetoric. However kudos to Penny Wong and Albo for trying to thread the needle. China may have some grudging respect for that at least until they are next called out for human rights abuse and the like.

  30. Oh no – another price cap on gas –

    EU countries agree gas price cap to contain energy crisis

    Brussels | European Union energy ministers on Monday (Tuesday AEDT) agreed to a gas price cap, after weeks of talks on the emergency measure that has split opinion across the bloc as it seeks to tame the energy crisis.

    The cap is the 27-country EU’s latest attempt to lower gas prices that have pushed energy bills higher and driven record-high inflation this year after Russia cut off most of its gas deliveries to Europe.

    Ministers agreed to trigger a cap if prices exceed €180 ($285) per megawatt hour for three days on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas hub’s front-month contract, which serves as the European benchmark.

    The TTF price must also be €35/MWh higher than a reference price based on existing liquefied natural gas (LNG) price assessments for three days.

    “We have succeeded in finding an important agreement that will shield citizens from skyrocketing energy prices,” said Jozef Sikela, industry minister for the Czech Republic, which holds the rotating EU presidency.

    https://www.afr.com/world/europe/eu-countries-agree-gas-price-cap-to-contain-energy-crisis-20221220-p5c7mq

  31. There seems to be some confusion, because a vapid Liberal slogan like “Albo under promises and under delivers” is meant to be delivered by Taylormade not by Player One. Sock puppet got the names the wrong way around?

  32. Well, Albo and Co certainly getting announcements done. Rudd as ambassador is a bit of a risky move but keeps him in the tent i suppose. And, he does have skills and experience appropriate to the role. did they do a new High Commissioner to the UK??

  33. Lord Cruddas’ real surname from birth is indeed Cruddas. Another fine example of nominative determinism, Crud by name Crud by nature.

    Donated millions of pounds to the Tories to coincidentally receive a peerage in the same week his donations passed the 3 million quid mark, in the first ever case where the sitting PM (Boris, of course, he of zero standards) overrode a refusal from the House of Lords Appointments Committee. Why did they refuse? Cruddas got caught out by reporters doing a fake sheik type gag trying to sell access to the PM and Chancellor for 200-250k quid a pop.

    You know the type – dodgy as hell yet convinced that he and the far rights are the last bastions of British morality against a woke hellmouth.

  34. P One, there’s criticism and then there’s vapid sloganeering. You are doing the latter.

    YOU might take the view that Albo has underdelivered on climate, with your unrealistic beliefs that any government in Australia could wave a magic wand and drop global emissions by the required amount in less than 6 months, but only a Dutton could argue he’s underdelivered on the rest of his agenda. He’s got an impressive amount done already for just 6 months, large parts of which needed to be spent on overseas trips, getting new staff in place and up to speed, and generally just the machinery of establishing a new government after a decade out of power.

  35. Cue the usual suspects in the press gang:

    “Is this the person who your government needs to have in Washington? Are you worried about essentially having a second Foreign Minister in the United States?”

    — unnamed journalist to Albo, Guardian blog

  36. China tried divide and conquer on Australia. Labor stuck to a bipartisan approach in Opposition. This is despite the despicable attempt by Morrison and Dutton to weaponize China relations during the elections.
    China has tried trade punishments, blandishments and divide and conquer. The big massage for the last three years is that Australia refused to be bullied.


  37. Lars Von Triersays:
    Tuesday, December 20, 2022 at 6:55 am
    First honeymoon ever with 37% primary vote.

    Wouldn’t you be happy as a leader with a 2PP of 54-46? I will be. 🙂

  38. “The capacity of the Russian military, even reinforced by elements of the Belarusian armed forces, to prepare and conduct effective large-scale mechanized offensive operations in the next few months remains questionable, ”

    Yah…although the question of Belarus will stay up in the air. The respective leaders haven’t exactly got a history of making rational decisions. Big factor seems to be that a lot of the Ukraine / Belarus border is the Pripet Marshes. Not good country to fight in, particularly for an attacker.

    The Ukrainians seem to be getting less and less concerned with hitting targets on “Russian” territory, and i dont think they will hesitate if they find targets in Belarus….where the Belarussian’s let Moscow launch attacks from their territory. While the US does not seem to have sent ATACM’s to Ukraine it looks like the Ukrainians have either built their own longer range strike, or acquired some from other suppliers. Turkey?? Also, some strange “industrial accidents” maybe occurring in Russia at the moment??

    Honestly, if the Russians launch some kind of new offensive in 2023 that’s supposed to be “war of movement” stuff i think the Ukrainians will cope. They will give ground where they have too and likely make the Russian’s pay heavily for anything they do take.


  39. Steve777says:
    Tuesday, December 20, 2022 at 7:21 am
    I’m amazed that 37% of those sampled are unaware of the Voice referendum. That’s a bit of a worry. They would be the ‘low information’ voters who would be most mostly likely to be swayed by a very noisy and well-funded scare and disinformation campaign (“they’re coming for your backyard”). We know that one is coming.

    There are three 37% numbers in this poll. Bit coincidental? or sus? or lazy?

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