Essential Research seems to have a new routine of discreetly slipping out federal voting intention numbers without trumpeting them in their weekly report. Labor is on 35% (up two), the Coalition 30% (down one), Greens 13% (steady), others 17% (steady) with 5% undecided (down one). The “2PP+” two-party measure has Labor steady on 51%, the Coalition up one to 44% and undecided down one to 5%. The weekly report has the monthly personal ratings for Anthony Albanese, which have him unchanged at 60% approval and 27%.
A forced response question on a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice to parliament runs 63-37 in favour, in from 65-35 in August. Respondents were presented with four questions querying their understanding of the issue, which found 25% holding the incorrect view that the proposed body would be able to block parliamentary legislation, with 26% believing otherwise and 50% not sure. Forty per cent expected 2023 would be a better year for Australia, compared with 24% for worse and 25% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1042.
Roy Morgan’s weekly video informs us that their latest federal two-party numbers have Labor’s lead out from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5.
The Age online reports Melbourne Victory likely to play with no crowds for the rest of the season with other draconian penalties under consideration.
VicPol have said arrests and interviews with pitch invaders will be within hours.
Australia gave a perfect excuse to India to prepare pitches as they like when Australia tours India next year.
——————————
Well, they have never needed an excuse. And this pitch suited SA.
Ven
“ Australia gave a perfect excuse to India to prepare pitches as they like when Australia tours India next year.”
No doubt India will use the excuse, but I doubt the Gabba pitch was deliberate. Like SK said, SA have excellent quicks too. In fact, with Australia having the better spinner, it was potentially a bit of an own goal. Fortunately we won the toss.
frednk @ #1948 Sunday, December 18th, 2022 – 6:19 pm
fred – I find it fascinating.
Albo succintly laid out in the election campaign what his approach to markets/ business would be –
“We believe markets are here to serve us. Not the other way around.”
Further, he has shown determination to implement what he said he would.
‘Business types’ should probably refresh themselves about what Albo actually said ?
Obviously business don’t want the boat rocked or the honey pot upturned. The tories basically stuck to that.
Guess whats now happening?
I’m crying my eyes out for them.
But Albo labor obviously have to keep voters with them etc.
Right on Socrates ! Winning the toss was significant- whoever could chose to bowl first, bat second would win. Two day test ? Almost the short-form game, that I despise.
On a different matter, I wonder about some negative PB commentary on our Environment Minister – suggesting that this portfolio was a looser’s award. But recall how Graham Richardson made the position into a major portfolio in attaining conservation status for the Wet Tropics, Barrier Reef and Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage areas, either proposed or designated, and much more, during his period as minister under Hawke. We gained more major environmental protection in this short period than anything since. May Tanya Plibacek have similar success, including in Vancouver – our biodiversity needs a strong voice and real action.
frednk @ #1948 Sunday, December 18th, 2022 – 6:19 pm
…
But Albo labor obviously have to keep voters with them etc.
I have been trying to reflect on why Rudd got rolled by the industry over the super profit tax.
Was it because it was different times and the papers still had power.
Was it because Rudd was obsessed with popularity.
Or was in because Labor believed the papers had power and buckled under the campaign.
Two things for sure, we are seeing the same sort of behavior and it is being greeted with a yawn.
David Warner fails again.
Once had aspirations to captain Australia. Now staying in the team due to largesse from selectors.
An earlier post about hoping Conservative vote staying low till election needn’t worry.. especially when Sunak is accused of dragging the conservatives to the Left!
Peter Cruddas, the peer who has given the party more than £3.5m, said the Conservatives were “no longer a centre-right party” under Sunak, adding that he refused to back it financially until it changed course.
His intervention comes as the latest Opinium poll for the Observer shows support for Reform, the successor to the Brexit party, is up to 8% of the vote – up 2 points and almost neck-and-neck with the Lib Dems. The poll also found that a fifth of voters (19%) are considering voting for Reform. This includes 23% of 2019 Conservative voters and 11% of 2019 Labour voters.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/dec/17/tories-at-risk-from-rightwing-insurgency-warns-donor-lord-cruddas
Likely result is the end of the Conservative Party
One thing for sure, no one under 40 watches commercial tv or reads the city papers anymore…
fred –
Clearly different times, different circumstances.
From Phil Coorey who reckons Labor is up for the fight –
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/mining-tax-style-campaign-go-for-it-says-labor-20221212-p5c5o4
frednk says:
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 7:04 pm
I have been trying to reflect on why Rudd got rolled by the industry over the super profit tax.
Was it because it was different times and the papers still had power.
Was it because Rudd was obsessed with popularity.
Or was in because Labor believed the papers had power and buckled under the campaign.
Two things for sure, we are seeing the same sort of behavior and it is being greeted with a yawn.
__________________________________________
Here are some things you have not mentioned:
1. In 2010 an election was due in six months. In 2022 it is barely six months since the election
2. In 2010 the general public were not suffering personally from resources companies taking super profits. In 2022 it is intensely personal for ordinary Australians facing massive power bills they can’t afford to pay.
3. In 2010 Rudd announced first and then tried to do a bit of negotiation. In 2022 the Albanese government bent over backwards to be seen to be giving the fossil fuel industry an opportunity to fix the problem itself.
4. The 2010 proposals affected all resources companies (and therefore people depending on those industries could be scared). The 2022 law affects only fossil fuel industries making super profits from Australians based on world prices affected by the Ukraine invasion (and a smaller number of people to be scared).
frednk @ #1917 Sunday, December 18th, 2022 – 7:04 pm
The fossil fuel cartel ruled the day.
Rudd and Turnbull tried to get through a CPRS that was as limp as you can get but that still was too much for the cartel.
The cartel had their soldiers within the L/NP and Labor party rooms knife both of them.
Rudd gone along with his CPRS and Gillard was installed to buy time for the cartel until the next election.
Minority Govt with Greens and Indies delivering the CEP. The cartel goes apoplectic – spends 3 yrs tearing down the progressive Govt with ‘carbon tax’ lie.
Times have changed. The MSM bosses are still invested in fossil fuels along with L/NP corporates and some ALP unions, but people aren’t buying their propaganda. More Green mp’s and new Teal mp’s. The cartel is losing.
Davo
“ One thing for sure, no one under 40 watches commercial tv or reads the city papers anymore…”
Certainly the Australian and Victorian elections in 2022 give us some comfort on that.
Even in this aging Boomer/Gen Xpendable household, the TV went off as soon as the cricket finished. I’d rather listen to a podcast and read this blog.
What if Gillard was correct to drop the mining tax – for seeing the consequences if she had batted on?
Lars Von Trier @ #1925 Sunday, December 18th, 2022 – 7:28 pm
Labor hoped Gillard could get them over the line in 2010. then they’d re-asses re fossil fuels.
It didn’t work out that way thanks to internal and external treachery in the leadup to the 2010 election.
I reckon some in Labor were quietly hoping for Windsor and Oakeshott to choose the Libs.
Rex
I don’t think the carbon trading fiasco and the super profit tax are particularly related.
But a related reflection o the two issues. Why where the greens so successful in pulling down the CPRS; but Bandt’s campaign against Gas policy barely lasted two days and fell so flat.
I think fair comment Rex – clearly some heavy duty fragging of Gillard went on.
Not sure there is a lot of appetite for radical change atm- more goodwill and a wait and see how Albo performs.
As to the Greens – they are just waiting for the right moment to fang Albo. There is no love lost on either side.
frednk @ #1927 Sunday, December 18th, 2022 – 7:33 pm
The CPRS was an environmental fraud. Bob Brown knew it and ruthlessly saw an opportunity to gain more enviro influence after the 2010 election off the back of instability in the Labor and L/NP party rooms. Electorally, he was proved correct.
Bandt called for no compensation to coal in the legislation. Bowen confirmed there was no compensation for coal in the legislation. Bandt and Bowen are mostly on the same page re clean energy. There’s an understanding there and a good working relationship, which can’t be said for Bowen and some of his fossil fuel aligned Labor colleagues.
There was a time when test matches lasted for four or five days, when Boycott & Lawry, for instance, occupied the crease for a day. Gone are those halicon days, little doubt due to the big bash – entertaining yes but not really cricket as it was once played.
A thoughtful piece by former Senator Rex Patrick on the failings in Defense purchasing. The submarine fiasco is used as an example, but there are others.
Impressively, Patrick visited several other countries that had employed the French and Germans to build subs to evaluate their performance. Some worked well, some did not. Our key failing was the Defense department’s inability to write a contract that tightly defined what we wanted. There was clearly a cultural difference that we blamed on the French.
Yet other navies e.g. Chilean, have made things work on sub contracts with France. Ergo, it is our fault.
https://michaelwest.com.au/dumb-ways-to-buy-defence-spending-shambles-former-submariner-and-senator-rex-patrick/?fbclid=IwAR02qVT1GpA6ArCBkx4vPi2S3YMOHiiMw_WII2qTsMCPVXMMnW04lI5m5Yw
Ten years of Coalition intransigence in league with the FF industry, in an era in which renewable energy and EVs have gained significant traction, have provided an entirely different political environment for a new government to operate.
Many old Boomers have dropped off the perch to be replaced by Gen Zers. Gen Zers have no loyalty no love for the FF industry and in fact, quite the opposite. Australia has changed greatly in a decade, only the Coalition, msm and FF industry haven’t caught on and they’re all about to have their Kodak moment.
If things really have changed Cronus, why not introduce an additional tax on iron ore export sales? Would be a real money spinner and could fund all sorts of free stuff?
People don’t use iron ore for energy in their homes. So, yet another ridiculous, leading question, meant to lead into a cul de sac of essential intellectual meaninglessness.
Lars Von Trier:
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 7:36 pm
[‘Not sure there is a lot of appetite for radical change atm- more goodwill and a wait and see how Albo performs.’]
On the contrary, now “is” the time for ‘radical change’. As Albanese said, he’s been underestimated for most of his life.
We will see Mavis. The choices being made now and in the next 6 months will define the term. See how they go.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 7:59 pm
If things really have changed Cronus, why not introduce an additional tax on iron ore export sales? Would be a real money spinner and could fund all sorts of free stuff?
———————————————————————————————
I guess that’s a separate argument though from the FF industry holding Australians to ransom which is the current major issue du jour.
Sceptic,
Does the Reform Party have a manifesto or a set of policies? Or just another catchy name, generously-funded advertising and Nigel Farage?
C@tmomma:
1. Reform our Economy: To succeed faster growth is vital. Higher growth rates are the only way to better wages and more tax revenues that can be invested in better healthcare and other public services. Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying Income Tax and frees up over 1.2 million small businesses and self-employed from paying Corporation Tax. We would also aim to remove a raft of other stifling taxes in a responsible, timely way. This will generate much faster growth than seen in recent decades. We must also stop wasting taxpayers money.
2. Reform our Public Sector: We must be ambitious, seeking faster, more efficient public services that work better for us all. For example, with health, we should demand zero waiting lists and we have a bold plan to achieve this vision. Our police need to focus on preventing crime and catching criminals. Our schools must educate our children properly to prepare them for a competitive, challenging world. Our Border Force must protect our borders.
3. Reform our Energy Strategy: We all care about the environment and want cleaner air, and we can do this in a strategic, affordable way. Yet the Westminster Net Zero plan is making us all net poorer whilst creating more emissions overall as it outsources them overseas. It is therefore net stupid. It is adding huge extra costs to us all as consumers and to our businesses. This will send hundreds of thousands of British jobs to China and elsewhere. Our energy plan will use our own energy treasure under our feet, and create thousands of British jobs, by making our industries competitive again. It will save consumers considerable amounts of money on their bills every year. We would also nationalise 50% of key utility companies to stop consumers being ripped off with the other 50% being owned by British pension funds for British pensioners.
4. Reform our Institutions: Major change is needed to the bodies that impact our lives — the unelected cronyism of the House of Lords, the unaccountable civil service and the bloated BBC. Reform is essential to our voting system so it is fairer and more representative; the two-party system embeds the status quo and prevents real change.
suprisingly it seems pesuto will take victorian liberals further to the right abandoning mathew guy failed atempt to some what move to the senter desbite pesuoto claiming to be a modderit he wil follow bradd batons stratigy of going hard on crime like the african gangs of 2018 pesutow may be moore extreme then guy
Holdenhillbilly:
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 8:16 pm
Are those your words verbatim? I’m not having a go at you but if they’re not, attribution is warranted.
Mavis: Straight from the Reform party manifesto.
Not that I believe a word of it.
I love cricket arguments…
Lars
“If things really have changed Cronus, why not introduce an additional tax on iron ore export sales? Would be a real money spinner and could fund all sorts of free stuff?”
Iron ore already pays a lot more in royalties than gas, which gets off Scott Morrison free. Iron ore also employs a lot more people and includes locally owned companies that actually pay Australian tax. Completely different situation to gas.
Iron Ore has also been getting record prices (just like gas). Why hand over the dosh to Rio, BHP and Gina Hancock?
The Brits are a very forgiving bunch. Farage screwed up monumentally with Brexit and now Reform (having acknowledged that things didn’t turn out the way they intended) is planning to get him to lead Brexit 2.0, will they never learn?
TPOFsays:
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 7:18 pm
frednk says:
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 7:04 pm
I have been trying to reflect on why Rudd got rolled by the industry over the super profit tax.
Was it because it was different times and the papers still had power.
Was it because Rudd was obsessed with popularity.
Or was in because Labor believed the papers had power and buckled under the campaign.
Two things for sure, we are seeing the same sort of behavior and it is being greeted with a yawn.
———————————
from the moment that Abbott became leader Rudd and later gillard and swan were spooked by him. They ceded the setting of the agenda to him. instead of Rudd using the imprimatur of incumbency he meekly caved on just about everything Abbott put forward. any incumbency credits were immediately burnt by replacing rudd. Albo cleverly linked the price rise dissipation to the limitations on the industry and the industry is left looking like the craven profiteers they have always been. Albo knows how to use incumbency and he knows how that incubency can be used to contrast with what went before. this is the reason the LNP looks like a rabble – it’s because they are one but also because Albo leaves no half inch gap to give them a sniff of gaining some form of advantage.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 8:41 pm
Iron Ore has also been getting record prices (just like gas). Why hand over the dosh to Rio, BHP and Gina Hancock?
———————————————————————————————
And the iron ore industry isn’t threatening to withhold supply from Australians or its manufacturing industries.
So your argument Cronus is if you threaten the government, it is entitled to tax you more? Otherwise play along and you wont get hit with more tax?
Can anyone explain what the issue is with the use of flares, is it a peculiarly soccer thing?
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 8:48 pm
So your argument Cronus is if you threaten the government, it is entitled to tax you more? Otherwise play along and you wont get hit with more tax?
——————————————————————————————-
Really Lars? You’re just intentionally conflating the argument comparing apples with oranges. There is no issue with the iron ore industry, everyone’s happy. There is an issue with the FF industry, they’re making extraordinary profits off Australians (as opposed to export element of the industry) when there’s no significant rise in extraction or production costs. Australians are complaining and the government is addressing our concerns. It’s not that hard.
Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 8:48 pm:
“… if you threaten the government, it is entitled to tax you more …”
=========================
Cronus didn’t say that:
Cronus @ Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 8:47 pm:
“And the iron ore industry isn’t threatening to withhold supply from Australians or its manufacturing industries.”
=========================
LVT, you are a slippery bugger in argument.
Thanks for that, Holden Hillbilly.
So, #1: Warmed up motherhood statements and ‘grow the pie’ imagery to provide the things people want and need? Of course, the unstated corollary to that is … lower taxes. Which is the ultimate underpinning for the party.
And there you have it:
Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying Income Tax and frees up over 1.2 million small businesses and self-employed from paying Corporation Tax.
There’s nothing ‘bold’ about it. Bold as brass, maybe, that they think they can con their way to lower taxes for themselves by trying to dupe the little guy into thinking they are talking about them. Hmm, I wonder who the ‘6 million’ are? Would that be the number of Britons in the top tax bracket then? And, who exactly are these incorporated self-employed that they want to help? Barristers who have incorporated themselves, is one example I can think of. Poor things, life’s so hard when you can’t afford a Bentley for the wife as well as one for yourself. Better cut their taxes then. 🙄
Of course, they don’t explain what Income Tax is used for, they simply attempt to create a bogey man around the concept of paying ‘tax’ out of your ‘income’. Jeez, no wonder the NHS in Britain is staggering around on its last legs, it’s because people like those behind this political party are pushing out propaganda such as this which will see it’s legs cut out from under it. As well as all those other things a decent social democracy provides for its citizens by taxing them!
All so they can make more money than they could possibly spend in one lifetime. They are sick individuals who are attempting to take gullible Britons for a ride.
Macarthur @ #1991 Sunday, December 18th, 2022 – 8:58 pm
Positively oleaginous. 😐
Lars Von Trier
It is interesting that you conflate “threatening to withhold supply from Australians or its manufacturing industries” with “threaten the government” .
There was a time the Liberals were supposed to be on the side of industry. But I agree, the Liberals long ago lost interest in the Manufacturing Industry and for that matter Australians; it’s now about bullshit issues that few are interested in.
so pesutow seems to be going further to the right then guy adopting a stratigy of focusing on crime obveously he did not get the mesige of the 2018 election result batobnshould be leader if pesutow will follow his stratigy
not shore whiy nsw labor are puting in a former football player in monarow obveously the local cowncilor the party chose last time was not any good
frednk @ #1994 Sunday, December 18th, 2022 – 9:03 pm
And Lars von Trier is all in.
Still, he’s providing an amuse-bouche to distract us on a quiet Sunday night on PollBludger. 😐
Aaron newton @ #1996 Sunday, December 18th, 2022 – 9:07 pm
Because he already comes with a built-in profile in the community, for starters. And he is probably well-liked.
“The world has been debating Mr. Putin’s willingness to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. People who know him don’t discount the possibility, but they also believe he expects to defeat the West and Ukraine in a long-term, non-nuclear test of wills.
As one senior NATO intelligence official put it, Russian generals “acknowledge the incompetence, lack of coordination, lack of training. They all recognize these problems.” Still, they seem confident of an “eventual victory” because, the official said, “Putin believes this is a game of chicken between him and the West, and he believes the West will blink first.””
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html?unlocked_article_code=uUDMt9Me0Pu3tG5cyILfjeJSY3_KM7uuZzPmP5P1K5jfWa5RjGd8-pXzwVA9VrhuSTUDAGrQplgWf2LD6xLzaqQCwYcmZ-J2VpgSDzlPZeRJFGVzCQL7TFkgupzLqbK9jH62WaAuHZCoT5h3RzmHlmqMhz2PMmxxUyqZyRw_j3Awy3sHcOpbNmJd05c56Ag6txZ81txbZm5pbg9ejGIzcZJdLJcbwMsE7vmwreFFKipCxsTDnmtSfYfcaDH5MJOtUirt2Fy_QGHH9rJi-FahpHOmUiakfgk0AJyS4C6M_3oT465L4B6d7yLRwgcGfF_Ck9EU6QCo1Hh4FGRkd6JoYooxa3AKo7H8SFLRDFyAH8Fvqifqg0yeGHZTFYZh74x7HA&smid=share-url
==================================
Clearly, it is up to us in the West to prove Putin wrong about this. If we succeed, it won’t be the first time the West unpleasantly surprised a genocidal dictator in this way: France and Britain sticking to their promise to declare war on Hitler if he invaded Poland; and Britain repelling Operation Sea Lion in the Battle of Britain.
Wars are contests of wills, but even more are they contests in the marshalling of resources and the development of technology. Look at the Confederacy, or Nazi Germany, or Imperial Japan – or the USSR circa 1990-91.
Holdenhillbilly:
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 8:28 pm
[‘Mavis: Straight from the Reform party manifesto.
Not that I believe a word of it.’]
All’s good but may I suggest that you enclose your posts with inverted commas when quoting from a source other than yours