Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)

Labor steady federally, Liberal up a little in Tasmania, and Britain’s Tories facing the similar generational challenges to Australia’s.

A couple of things to be noted as the Victorian election dominates my attention:

• The weekly Roy Morgan video update tells us that federal Labor’s two-party lead is steady at 53.5-46.5, and nothing further.

• The quarterly EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention gives the Liberals their best result this year, up one to 42% with Labor down two to 29% and the Greens up one to 14%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Rebecca White is 46-34, little changed from 47-35 in August. The poll was conducted November 8 to 15 from a sample of 1000.

• Something that caught my eye from Charlotte Ivers in Britain’s New Statesman, as it seems more than relevant to Australia:

In 2019 57 per cent of people aged 60-69 voted Tory, but only 23 per cent of people aged 25-29. Of course, it is news to nobody that young people vote Labour and older people vote Conservative. What is alarming Conservative MPs is that the tipping point age at which people become more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is going up, and it is going up quickly. Before the 2017 election, research by the Onward think tank found, the tipping point was 34. By 2019 it was 51.

MPs can also tell you why this is. People vote Conservative as they age not because of some innate law, but because ageing has traditionally been associated with the other markers of a Conservative vote: home ownership, a stable job, increased income or capital. It looks like this link is breaking.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

802 comments on “Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)”

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  1. south says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 9:46 am
    Prediction: The lnp are going to get crushed on Saturday. The media will be dumbfounded that their ‘too close to call’ narrative will be blown out of the water by 730pm. I will be watching Credlins face, it’ll be the best entertainment.
    ———————————————————————————————

    I expect the same, Andrews will be returned comfortably (though somehow it’ll be reported as a close shave) and the msm will be horrified at how it was Andrew’s fault that they’d deceived themselves into believing he’d be replaced by Guy. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Libs didn’t accept the result, called for recounts and blamed broken non-existent counting machines.

  2. I’ve only passed passing attention to the Victorian election but have noticed the media (as usual perhaps) trying to generate heat and anger. Perhaps it is there and they are just trying to light it? I guess we will see. I think there is little doubt people are disaffected as a whole but it is a question of whether someone or some organisations can rouse enough anger I guess? If it catches on then you end up in landslides.


  3. On election eve in Victoria, The Age’s editorial says, “This election confronts Victorian voters with a difficult choice. On one hand, we have a government that’s been in power for eight years and is showing signs of both arrogance and exhaustion. On the other is a weak and divided opposition facing the same identity crisis as its federal party.” Despite the dangers it mentions, The Age believes the opposition is simply not ready to govern. It has done little real renewal of personnel or policy in the past four years and has not made a compelling case for change. On most of the policy issues that matter to Victorians, Labor’s are stronger and more coherent.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-arrogant-or-the-unprepared-not-an-easy-choice-20221124-p5c0w5.html

    It appears the Editor, who went on leave while his staff went about dismantling Dan Andrews legacy and name, is back from leave.

  4. Good Morning

    Cat and Ven

    You are both doing exactly what caused the prediction of the Red Wave.

    Sure I ended up talking about Universal Medicare because thats a Labor policy and I thought Cat would know the ability to win elections from opposition on that issue as Labor has done that including leaning on it the recent election.

    I just think Biden could do more and the polling indicates exactly that.
    We see this calculation with Labor and I am glad that they held to their guns on the climate target being ambitious. I think it certainly made a big difference in the election. Authenticity.

    We saw the mother of all scare campaigns from the MAGA camp. It’s as bad as you are going to see a scare campaign. Even with history telling us voters in Mid Terms vote against the incumbent President voters really did vote for democracy the right to choose an abortion and good economic policy including climate action.

    I pointed to issues in Red States to make the point that the Marriage Equality vote made here. The centre is not where the pundits think it is. We were told referendums are difficult. We had a big no campaign yet it passed. The centrist compromise of civil unions was rejected. It was all or nothing and all won.

    Yes that’s a single issue and like those ballot measures in US Red States shows are not a flat out we win a general election. What it does show is that there is room for movement towards the left for the Democrats because yes that polling on abortion was right it was a game changer issue capable of deciding an election.

    Just remember the whole don’t scare the horses was thrown out the window because the GOP forced the Democrats to take the abortion issue seriously by the SCOTUS decision and campaigned on it.

    The polling for Universal Medicare is the same. We know from experience in every other country that yes it wins elections against all the forces you expect to oppose it. We still see those same forces at work here and in the UK degrading Universal Medicare. So it’s no naivety of not understanding the types of scare campaigns in political use.

    That all said my point was the Democrats can move a bit left and not lose elections not that it had to be Universal Medicare. Ie The Centre of politics is not where you think it is. The don’t scare the horses has to be challenged as it means no change. Hello caving into the right.

    Don’t dismiss the election results with don’t scare the horses when my whole point was the election showed the horses were not scared.


  5. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 8:06 am
    Cronus @ #144 Friday, November 25th, 2022 – 7:58 am

    Thanks BK

    “ Morrison had been protected by a conspiracy of silence. No one who knew what he had done blew the whistle.”

    A tiny but telling comment. It describes the Coalition perfectly.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/extreme-overreach-frydenberg-felt-betrayed-by-morrison-s-secret-appointment-20221124-p5c0zj.html

    It also extends to the CPG journalists who knew as well. I reckon they’ve got some explainin’ to do.

    They’re supposed to be the ones that tell the great unwashed about things like this, not be the secret keepers for a lawless government.

    I will repeat what I posted yesterday.
    I implore the voters of Victoria to punish Media by voting against Victorian LNP in large numbers in tomorrow’s election.
    You would have noticed that the media is not holding back when they criticize ALP, State or Federal level. But they pussyfoot around when it comes to criticising LNP at state and federal level ( 9 years damnit, 9 bloody wasted years). Tell them that is not acceptable and you understand their games by voting against LNP in Victorian State election.

  6. In regard to the Peter Gleeson sacking it surprises me somewhat that it came to that
    I’ve read that the staff were particularly upset with his plagiarism. As they should be
    I know somebody who worked for Herald Sun decades ago and still knows people there who he used to respect.
    But he says they are now totally cowed by management.
    I would have thought staff angst at the Courier Mail against the star head kicker could have been overlooked. Just as they overlook a lot in the Murdoch empire
    A spell on the bench might have sufficed perhaps?
    Maybe he had other issues?
    It was only after Paul Sheehan left the SMH that we heard what his colleagues thought of him

  7. Sohar says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 9:46 am

    I see Kos Somaras has disappeared from Twitter, on the eve of an election, after his rant against Dan Andrews. Probably a bad career move for the Redbridge guy to get in bed with the Cookers.
    ————————-
    Kos is still on twitter.

  8. Re Wranslide @10:00.

    ”I’ve only [paid] passing attention to the Victorian election but have noticed the media (as usual perhaps) trying to generate heat and anger.”

    That’s standard operating procedure for tabloid / populist / low quality media. Also hatred, which they seem from this distance (Sydney) to be stirring up against Dan Andrews. We saw it Federally during Julia Gillard’s Prime Ministership. We saw it for even longer over “boats”. We see it everywhere at all times from the Daily Rupert.

    There are two reasons for this:

    1. Heat and anger get ratings and sell papers.
    2. Heat, anger and hatred rather than dispassionately setting out the case for electing the Coalition is more likely to get the desired result.

  9. Ven at 10:12 am
    You need to remember that journalists, like all other employees, are hired by their boss to do a particular job , failure to perform that job usually gets you the royal order of the boot. Now what ‘job’ do you think the Bosses at the Rupertarium and Fairfax Gnus would have in mind for their political journalists ?


  10. davesays:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 8:20 am
    from Coorey’s article above –

    “At the time of writing, in 2½ sitting blocs since the election, the government secured the passage of 29 bills, and delivered a budget”.

    After looking at Coorey article, someone in Dutton shadow cabinet shouted ” Did somebody say KFC?” 🙂

  11. ”I implore the voters of Victoria to punish Media by voting against Victorian LNP in large numbers in tomorrow’s election.”

    Vote Labor in any electorate Labor holds
    Vote Labor in any electorate Labor can win
    Vote which whichever Centre/Left candidate has the best chance of winning in any electorate not in play for Labor.

    Liberal last.

  12. poroti:

    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 10:33 am

    [‘The Hun’s campaign against Dastardly Dictator Dan continues until the bitter end. Voting ! The Bastard !

    Dan’s early vote in city slammed as ‘slap in the face’.’]

    As did Guy.

  13. I thought this extract from Ms Savva’s latest bodice ripper interesting.
    Who in this age invites folks into their homes and instructs them to sing?
    Was the whole country governed by a bowl of fruit loops and why is the GG still the GG.

    “The Governor-General, David Hurley, was a former military man, very close to Morrison, also deeply religious, who would urge – or rather oblige – guests at his official residences, and at events around the country, to sing to one another.

    Guests were alerted to the expectations of their hosts by his wife, Linda, who would announce: “I believe that singing is a gift we give to one another.” The Department of Foreign Affairs began forewarning new ambassadors of the Hurley tradition before they made the trek to Government House.

    ‘You Are My Sunshine’ was a hot favourite. Guests were told to face the person next to them to sing the final chorus. Sometimes it would be the familiar tune with new lyrics written by Mrs Hurley that would be printed on the back of menus and handed out to guests. No one had an excuse not to sing along. Hurley was punctilious about this ritual he had initiated, even though some guests found it awkward or embarrassing.

    But he did not see it as his duty or responsibility to notify the public that the prime minister had secretly sworn himself in to five additional portfolios.”

  14. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 8:42 am
    Nigel Farage said the Conservative Party deserves to be “wiped out” after net migration to the UK hit a new record high of 504,000. The number for the 12 months to June this year was revealed by the Office for National Statistics this morning and it is 170,000 more than the previous post-war record of 331,000 in 2015.

    Mr Farage, the former leader of the Brexit Party, said: “These net migration figures are hard to take in. 500,000 is nearly double the previous record. The Tories deserve to be wiped out.” The ONS said the 504,000 figure was the result of an “unprecedented” combination of events, including the end of Covid lockdown restrictions and the war in Ukraine, with a surge in visas for foreign nationals to live, study and work in the UK.

    Illustrating that Brexit was always about reactionary phobia and its complement, an entirely misguided supremacist mindset. The English are wrong about the rest of the world and wrong about themselves. This is not surprising. They have a profound cultural attachment to and pride in regal make-believe.

  15. Socrates says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:31 am

    Oliver Sutton

    “ Desperately Shrieking Sussan?”

    Boom, boom!
    中华人民共和国
    Quote of the day this early in the day? What do you reckon Soc?

  16. Grime says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 10:48 am
    I thought this extract from Ms Savva’s latest bodice ripper interesting.
    Who in this age invites folks into their homes and instructs them to sing?
    Was the whole country governed by a bowl of fruit loops and why is the GG still the GG.

    “The Governor-General, David Hurley, was a former military man, very close to Morrison, also deeply religious, who would urge – or rather oblige – guests at his official residences, and at events around the country, to sing to one another.

    Hurley is an absurdity. He should be bumped out.

  17. south says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 10:51 am

    Hurley sounds insane.

    Time to retire. Like right now.
    中华人民共和国
    I believe the proper term is “Managed Out” 🙂

  18. BK says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 11:03 am

    Hurley is an absurdity. He should be bumped out.
    _________
    Yet another religious nutter.
    中华人共和国
    Amen to that brother

  19. Mavis at 10:39 am

    poroti:

    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 10:33 am

    [‘The Hun’s campaign against Dastardly Dictator Dan continues until the bitter end. Voting ! The Bastard !

    Dan’s early vote in city slammed as ‘slap in the face’.’]

    As did Guy.

    Oh dear and sooo ‘on brand’ of them.

  20. Holy Kumbaya Grime.

    Having said that, singing is very much integral to some cultures. After a few vodkas in southern Bulgaria late one night I witnessed a lot of singing. One older Czech lady was quiet. It took more grappa (or whatever the poison was) and a lot of urging for her to sing some Russian dirges she had learnt as a child. The room went silent in anticipation. I am getting goose bumps remembering it.

    The next day I spoke to one of the chaps and he mentioned he thought it odd westerners dont sing (or dance) at gatherings like that. ‘What? All you do is talk?”.

  21. There were hints back when they arrived. 🙂 ( From Eternity News)

    “I hula-hoop every morning and I like to read the Bible or a devotional book while I’m doing that.” – Linda Hurley


  22. Upnorthsays:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 10:58 am
    Socrates says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:31 am

    Oliver Sutton

    “ Desperately Shrieking Sussan?”

    Boom, boom!
    中华人民共和国
    Quote of the day this early in the day? What do you reckon Soc?

    Suddenly Su$$$$$an!

  23. Re Mrs Hurley and singing.

    During last year’s floods on the Hawkesbury, a member of my family was volunteering with his SES unit the day the GG and his wife came. Towards the conclusion of their visit the various volunteer groups were gathered together for the obligatory photo, after which Mrs Hurley sang to them, somewhat to the bemusement of the family member (and others).
    On the other hand, in contrast to ScoMo and his team who visited the Windsor Bridge for a photo op. the next day, the Hurleys were apparently genuinely interested in how and what was happening without getting in the way of the volunteers or posing for other photos and stayed for quite some time.


  24. porotisays:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 11:18 am
    There were hints back when they arrived. ( From Eternity News)

    “I hula-hoop every morning and I like to read the Bible or a devotional book while I’m doing that.” – Linda Hurley

    “read the Bible or a devotional book while I’m doing that.” – Linda Hurley” 🙂
    I didn’t know people read devotional books while doing that. 🙂

  25. David Hurley was selected by then Prime Minister Morrison not long before the start of the 2019 election campaign. No doubt he was thoroughly vetted for his right-wing credentials. His five-year term expires 30/6/2024.

  26. Reality Check:

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/11/24/climate-change-action-kohler/

    Keeping warming to 1.5 degrees now looks impossible, and according to David Karoly, one of Australia’s leading climate scientists, there’s an 80 per cent chance of 2 degrees, while 3 degrees is 50/50.

    In case you were wondering, 2 degrees would be very difficult, but 3 degrees would probably not be sustainable for Australia …

    https://www.science.org.au/files/userfiles/support/reports-and-plans/2021/risks-australia-three-deg-warmer-world-report.pdf

    We would not even be able to feed ourselves.

    Still, nothing to see here, right? Carry on.

  27. Would Bludgers prefer to pop in on the Hurley’s for a bit of Hula Hooping and singing, or pop in on Bob Hawke for an eyeful of the member for Wills?

  28. nath says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 12:08 pm
    the Hurley’s asked people to sing “you are my sunshine” to each other? Monsters.
    —————————————————————————————

    Rule no 1, never force other people to sing (unless they actually initiate that choice). It works ok in other places but almost never in Australia. The Hurley’s are singularly unselfaware and frankly it’s embarrassing and simply weird.


  29. nathsays:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 12:08 pm
    the Hurley’s asked people to sing “you are my sunshine” to each other? Monsters.

    Why should I sing when you demand me to sing? Is our GG a monarch?
    Am I going to a concert when I visit GG? Is it democracy or dictatorship?
    Where is my freedom of choice. What will Victorian Freedumbs have to say about it?

  30. “ Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group has stepped in to become the major sponsor of the West Coast Fever just weeks after Gina Rinehart dropped a sponsorship deal with Netball Australia.”

    Truly excellent. There is a real message out there for all sports regarding ethical sponsorship and well done to Netball for being at the forefront.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-25/andrew-forrest-steps-in-as-major-sponsor-of-west-coast-fever/101697696

  31. when labor is likely to win the media allways prodicts a hung parliament foor example albanese culd not winn and masola was telling us that morrison had som secrit stratigy up his sleeve that would save the election and now nickie sava is continuing the media campaign to get frydenberg back in parliament as opposition leader desbite his failure as treawsurer and his closeworking with morrison sava is no progresive she does not want frydenberg to turn out like costellow who never became leader

  32. BK

    “The first week of public hearings of an unprecedented inquiry into historical hate crimes against the LGBTQI community has served as a reminder that prejudice existed – and still exists, says the editorial in the SMH. It declares that this important inquiry shines a light on their plight and shows us the need to educate the community about the need for respect and understanding to ensure hate crimes become a thing of the past and the LGBTQI community are treated with respect.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/important-inquiry-shines-a-light-on-transgender-and-gay-hate-crimes-20221124-p5c143.html
    ————-
    The bashings in Sydney in the 1980s were all bashings of gay men, as far as I know. They were always referred to as “gay bashings” (or “poofter bashings” if you were a member of the NSW Police Thugs).

    As a gay man I do not identify with this artificial amalgamation of gays and straights which is the so called LGBTQI+ “community”.

    Putting all the weirdos together in a portmanteau is convenient for academic and political actors and a deliberate policy of the “genderists” as they hitch a ride on the gay liberation movement despite at the same time peddling homophobia.

  33. A “solution” to Belgium’s cocaine incinerator problem?

    Police in India claim rats ate almost 600kg of confiscated marijuana

    Prosecutors said rodent infestation was an impossible issue to deal with, with a similar case occurring in 2017 when officers claimed 45kg of marijuana was eaten by the cheeky pests.

    Another similar incident earlier this year when police in neighbouring Bihar claimed rodents had drunk nearly one million litres of alcohol kept in storerooms.

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/science/animals/police-in-india-claim-rats-ate-almost-600kg-of-confiscated-marijuana/news-story/b2228742a64974259ac43088ffb7bc88

  34. From https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/24/iranian-military-advisers-killed-aiding-moscow-in-crimea-kyiv:

    “Iranian advisers killed aiding Russians in Crimea, says Kyiv
    Top security official says Tehran military personnel in occupied areas will be ‘targeted’
    Fri 25 Nov 2022 02.36 AEDT

    Ukraine’s top security official has confirmed that Iranian military advisers have been killed in Crimea, and warned that any other Iranians on occupied Ukrainian territory in support of Moscow’s invasion would also be targeted.

    Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, said Iranians were present in Crimea to help Russia pilot the Shahed-136 armed drones supplied by the Tehran government, but did not say how many Ukraine had killed.

    Reports in the Israeli press in October said that 10 were killed because of Ukrainian military strikes in occupied Crimea. Danilov made it clear that any further Iranian military presence would be targeted.

    “You shouldn’t be where you shouldn’t be,” Danilov said, in an interview in Kyiv. “They were on our territory. We didn’t invite them here, and if they collaborate with terrorists and participate in the destruction of our nation we must kill them.””
    =========================================================================

    I’ll be keeping an eye on how (and if) Tehran responds to Ukraine belling the cat on Tehran’s despicable cooperation with Moscow in its invasion of Ukraine. Tehran should be condemned and punished severely for helping Moscow kill more Ukrainian civilians and leave more civilians without the basics of life.

    Remember, Tehran categorically denies there are any Iranians on Ukrainian soil helping Russia operate its drones. How on Earth can they protest Ukraine targeting people they deny are even there?

  35. Albanese will have a presser on the release of the Bell inquiry report into Morrison’s surreptitious accumulation of ministries. Due to start soon.

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