Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)

Labor steady federally, Liberal up a little in Tasmania, and Britain’s Tories facing the similar generational challenges to Australia’s.

A couple of things to be noted as the Victorian election dominates my attention:

• The weekly Roy Morgan video update tells us that federal Labor’s two-party lead is steady at 53.5-46.5, and nothing further.

• The quarterly EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention gives the Liberals their best result this year, up one to 42% with Labor down two to 29% and the Greens up one to 14%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Rebecca White is 46-34, little changed from 47-35 in August. The poll was conducted November 8 to 15 from a sample of 1000.

• Something that caught my eye from Charlotte Ivers in Britain’s New Statesman, as it seems more than relevant to Australia:

In 2019 57 per cent of people aged 60-69 voted Tory, but only 23 per cent of people aged 25-29. Of course, it is news to nobody that young people vote Labour and older people vote Conservative. What is alarming Conservative MPs is that the tipping point age at which people become more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is going up, and it is going up quickly. Before the 2017 election, research by the Onward think tank found, the tipping point was 34. By 2019 it was 51.

MPs can also tell you why this is. People vote Conservative as they age not because of some innate law, but because ageing has traditionally been associated with the other markers of a Conservative vote: home ownership, a stable job, increased income or capital. It looks like this link is breaking.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

802 comments on “Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)”

Comments Page 6 of 17
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  1. Went to school with Peter Gleeson and his brother.

    Both came from a working class background and good lads.

    Don’t know what went wrong there with Peter.

  2. Lars ”Mavis, what will Anwar’s first legislation be? Legalisation of sodomy in Malaysia?”

    Do you support Malaysia’s sodomy laws and their strict enforcement?

  3. Lol. Ranked Choice voting in Alaska. 🙂 Will be interesting if Palin appeals. May be a lot of Americans that will support a system that Palin hates purely on that basis?? 🙂 And hey, will she argue that Australian elections are an object lesson in the wildly un-democratic??

  4. nath,

    Thanks for belling there Billy Kaplan cat.

    Billy K, I was going to ask you whether you has posted here previously under a different moniker. Your style seemed really familiar

    Welcome back guytaur, good to see you posting!

  5. Douglas and Milko @ #256 Thursday, November 24th, 2022 – 10:22 pm

    nath,

    Thanks for belling there Billy Kaplan cat.

    Billy K, I was going to ask you whether you has posted here previously under a different moniker. Your style seemed really familiar

    Welcome back guytaur, good to see you posting!

    Don’t give nath the credit, it was Fulvio Sammut who perceived correctly that Billy Kaplan was, indeed, guytaur. Days ago.

  6. Las Von Trier

    Mavis, what will Anwar’s first legislation be? Legalisation of sodomy in Malaysia?

    Seriously, do you really need to be such a sleezebag?

    I guess your moniker says you do – always in the most avant gourde provocative way of course.

  7. Been There says:
    Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 10:01 pm

    Went to school with Peter Gleeson and his brother.

    Both came from a working class background and good lads.

    Don’t know what went wrong there with Peter.
    中华人共和国
    Peter was pretty good when he was editor at the Townsville Bulletin. Since he moved South he has fallen down the Rabbit Hole in a big way. Maybe that’s the Murdoch way.

    Won’t surprise me to see him end up on LNP Staff. Crisafulli cut his teeth politically in Townsville when Gleeso was editor of the Bully. Both now live on the Gold Coast.

  8. Douglas and Milko @ #260 Thursday, November 24th, 2022 – 10:28 pm

    Las Von Trier

    Mavis, what will Anwar’s first legislation be? Legalisation of sodomy in Malaysia?

    Seriously, do you really need to be such a sleezebag?

    I guess your moniker says you do – always in the most avant gourde provocative way of course.

    You wonder what sort of mind thinks like that, and then goes into print with it!?!

  9. Upnorth,

    Definitely on the mend. some good days and bad days, but the good days are staring to outweigh the bad days.

    C@t, thanks for letting me know it was Fulvio Sammut who realised that Billy K was guaytaur.

  10. In regards Insurance premiums, we have just received our renewal offer (for the next 12 months)

    The premium is unchanged from the last year which is a major surprise

    Our electricity bill remains very similar to the previous year – so far

    Gas we expect an increase from the same period last year because of increased usage due to the unseasonable weather and the usage of the gas heating system

    Water Rates have remained remarkably consistent – but here comes some guy to slug us more by privatising sewerage which expense is on our water bill

    The 10 Year Bond Yield has moved quite significantly to 3.5% (so the damage to the 40% Conservative allocation is stabilising at least)

    Share Indices are recovering

    And we are actually getting some interest on savings

    And across a 60/40 allocation our FY to date returns are just in double digits (mind you this calendar year, the ASX is down 5.5%, the Dow down just over 7% and our super down 6% due to the rise in Yields – Yield up, price down)

    Plus the price of petrol is sub $1.80 per litre

    Now what could go wrong?

    Well my favourite car remains at the garage waiting on a part from Germany which is very difficult to access I am told – hopefully in early next year!!!

    The Pandemic, hey?

    NB: I might have to visit my favourite car just to confirm I can still sit in it – as you get older it is that slight (my story) bit more difficult to get in and out Particularly when you do not practice which I have not been – because I have not had the car for 3 months so far

    I blame Dan Andrews for this

    Or perhaps I need to become religious, establish a Church and jump up and down waving my arms and yelling at God

    And God will make my favourite car better

    He has made the lawn green after all

  11. Upnorth,

    There was an article in the Sunday Telegraph about Peter Gleeson many moons ago and that’s how I made the connection.

    He didn’t have the boofhead he has now then, as many of us more mature chaps tend to have.

    So his picture on his articles looked nothing like what I knew.

    I was astounded from the article that he had descended to Murdoch level.

    Anyway I feel sorry for him because I think deep down he’s a better person than Murdoch influenced him to be.

    Could be wrong, but I trust my gut feelings about people.

    Haven’t been wrong too often.

    Anyhow, cheers cobber!

  12. Been There says:
    Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 10:01 pm

    Went to school with Peter Gleeson and his brother.

    I went to primary school with a bloke who some 30 years later I became reacquainted with when I returned to my home town. He was a funny, likeable kid when we were young but in those later years he had become a hard-headed business owner who treated his staff and wife like shit.
    I think the ‘magic ingredient’ was money.

  13. Douglas and Milko says:
    Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 10:38 pm

    Upnorth,

    Definitely on the mend. some good days and bad days, but the good days are staring to outweigh the bad days.

    C@t, thanks for letting me know it was Fulvio Sammut who realised that Billy K was guaytaur.
    中华人民共和国
    That’s good cobber. Don’t overdo things. Slowly but surely.

  14. Been There says:
    Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 10:46 pm

    Upnorth,

    There was an article in the Sunday Telegraph about Peter Gleeson many moons ago and that’s how I made the connection.

    He didn’t have the boofhead he has now then, as many of us more mature chaps tend to have.

    So his picture on his articles looked nothing like what I knew.

    I was astounded from the article that he had descended to Murdoch level.

    Anyway I feel sorry for him because I think deep down he’s a better person than Murdoch influenced him to be.

    Could be wrong, but I trust my gut feelings about people.

    Haven’t been wrong too often.

    Anyhow, cheers cobber!
    中华人民共和国
    Same boat cobber, same boat.

  15. Douglas and Milko @ #264 Thursday, November 24th, 2022 – 10:38 pm

    Upnorth,

    Definitely on the mend. some good days and bad days, but the good days are staring to outweigh the bad days.

    C@t, thanks for letting me know it was Fulvio Sammut who realised that Billy K was guaytaur.

    A word of warning. Shingles can come back, so don’t push yourself too hard, too soon.

    Does shingles come back in the same spot?

    One of the biggest myths about shingles is that it can only happen once. This isn’t true. You can have more than one episode. If you get shingles again, you usually don’t get the rash in the same place.

    We need to get you through to May. 🙂

  16. Dog’s Brunch

    Yes, seen it happen too often.

    As you said, the magic ingredient is money.

    I’ve seen it change many a person, family and friends included!

    Cheers!

  17. so savas article basickly doubled as the main stream medias atempt to revive frydenbergs corear he did not chalinge morrison last november whiy should be concernedover him being upset that morrison only realy trusted hawke robbert and mortin it was all over the pappers sava was one of turnbulls chear leaders to frydenberg is no costelow he will never pm maybi sava is upset her mentore costelow is like another vick mp to weak to chalinge

  18. One thing that has to come out eventually: Who was the absolute “karen” who called
    the cops on Danny Lim?? Some Prue or Trude shoppie tory voter no doubt 😡

  19. “But it was nevertheless disappointing to watch Labor stand with the Coalition, again and again, to vote against common-sense integrity measures being put forward by the woman who led the charge against political corruption. Does the government not see how this looks?“
    er, … yes keeping the NACC going if the wreckers regain office 🙁

  20. Well, this is awkward. A revelation from Niki Savva’s book ‘Bulldozed’:

    “The Governor-General, David Hurley, was a former military man, very close to Morrison, also deeply religious, who would urge – or rather oblige – guests at his official residences, and at events around the country, to sing to one another.

    “Guests were alerted to the expectations of their hosts by his wife, Linda, who would announce: “I believe that singing is a gift we give to one another.” The Department of Foreign Affairs began forewarning new ambassadors of the Hurley tradition before they made the trek to Government House.

    “‘You Are My Sunshine’ was a hot favourite. Guests were told to face the person next to them to sing the final chorus. Sometimes it would be the familiar tune with new lyrics written by Mrs Hurley that would be printed on the back of menus and handed out to guests. No one had an excuse not to sing along. Hurley was punctilious about this ritual he had initiated, even though some guests found it awkward or embarrassing.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/extreme-overreach-frydenberg-felt-betrayed-by-morrison-s-secret-appointment-20221124-p5c0zj.html

  21. No remorse, not even an apology to his colleagues who felt betrayed. And isn’t it good to see Savva back.

    If any further proof was needed that Scott Morrison had lost touch with reality, not only while he was prime minister, but that his malady had lingered for months after, it came during his first conversation with Josh Frydenberg after Anthony Albanese revealed that Treasury was one of the former prime minister’s secret ministries.

    Almost immediately after Albanese’s stunning announcement, Morrison tried to contact Frydenberg, ostensibly to apologise to his former deputy. Frydenberg ignored Morrison’s first few attempts, not trusting himself to speak to him, then finally responded. Frydenberg can’t actually remember Morrison using the ‘s’ word – sorry.

    What really stuck in Frydenberg’s mind, and his craw, was Morrison’s response in that initial conversation when a profoundly disappointed Frydenberg put it to him that: ‘You wouldn’t do it again if you had your time over!’ Morrison replied: ‘Yes I would.’

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/extreme-overreach-frydenberg-felt-betrayed-by-morrison-s-secret-appointment-20221124-p5c0zj.html

  22. Will we ever see the vision splendid of the Jam Land plains extended?

    “The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water has taken legal action to block Guardian Australia from accessing documents about an investigation into illegal land-clearing by Jam Land Pty Ltd in which the shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, and his brother Richard had interests.

    “After a four-year battle with the department, which began in April 2018, the Australian information commissioner last month ordered the release of 11 documents.

    “But a week ago, the department took the unusual step of appealing against the commissioner’s lengthy ruling in the administrative appeals tribunal.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/24/department-acts-to-stop-release-of-documents-on-probe-into-land-clearing-by-company-linked-to-angus-taylor

  23. Will we ever know the outcome of THIS investigation?

    The Australian Federal Police have spoken with Greens leader Adam Bandt about senator Lidia Thorpe’s former relationship with former Rebels bikie member Dean Martin.

    But Thorpe, who is also being investigated by the powerful Senate privileges committee while her office is reviewed by the Parliamentary Workplace Support Service, has not met with the federal police over the Martin matter.

    A spokesman for the Greens confirmed Bandt’s meeting with the federal police but said “the contents of that briefing are private”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bandt-meets-federal-police-over-thorpe-s-relationship-with-ex-bikie-20221124-p5c10u.html

  24. Morning all. Another day, another Stuart Roberts scandal. This looks like a clear cut conflict of interest and failure to declare an interest. Action is required.

    “ Former government services minister Stuart Robert was a major investor in a company that became reliant on payments from a department he oversaw as it staved off bankruptcy, The New Daily can reveal.”

    And
    “ The MP and his wife held one million shares, then worth $600,000, in a Gold Coast startup, Smiles Inclusive, a listed company planning to operate dozens of dental surgeries in Queensland.

    It took more than six months (long after he first said they had been ‘presold’) for Mr Robert’s shares to move into a trust he says was run independently.

    That company, he had disclosed, was to be one set up by the same friend who had controversially sought advice on contracts: John Margerison. But that detail was deleted.”
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/11/24/stuart-robert-connection-revealed/

    I predicted before the election that as soon as Morrison was out of office lots of corrupt behaviour would hit the news once they no longer had the power of government to suppress it.

  25. Confessions @ #282 Friday, November 25th, 2022 – 6:11 am

    Will we ever know the outcome of THIS investigation?

    The Australian Federal Police have spoken with Greens leader Adam Bandt about senator Lidia Thorpe’s former relationship with former Rebels bikie member Dean Martin.

    But Thorpe, who is also being investigated by the powerful Senate privileges committee while her office is reviewed by the Parliamentary Workplace Support Service, has not met with the federal police over the Martin matter.

    A spokesman for the Greens confirmed Bandt’s meeting with the federal police but said “the contents of that briefing are private”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bandt-meets-federal-police-over-thorpe-s-relationship-with-ex-bikie-20221124-p5c10u.html

    She’s as bad as Scott Morrison in her own way, the way she ignores parliamentary practice and convention. You can’t have a properly functioning parliament if people are going to come into the place and do a metaphorical dump in the corner of the room.

  26. From Savva’s book

    “ Frydenberg was staggered. When he asked him why he had done it, Morrison had no coherent explanation, except to say that ‘No one understands what it was like’ – a theme he would reprise at his press conference afterwards, the one where he also insisted that he and Frydenberg remained ‘the best of friends’.

    Frydenberg was incredulous. After a few days, Morrison rang Frydenberg again. He told him he had been thinking about their conversation. On reflection, he said, no, he would probably not take Treasury if he had his time over. Note, he only referred to Treasury. And there was still no apology.”
    ———————————————————————————————

    At the very least, this description of Morrison is of a psychopath, cold, planned, no empathy, no guilt or shame, focussed on a goal and not a person, behaviour outside normal bounds. He was our leader.

  27. Is this guy, John Margerison, also a fellow Pentecostalist?

    Also, Soc, do you remember, wrt to Robert’s ‘I was only a Backbencher’ excuse, whether the reason he was a Backbencher due to the fact that Morrison had to bench him after the internet fees fiasco? Then, if that’s the case, it seems as though he wasn’t chastened by it. At. All.

  28. Cat

    Yes of course re the backbencher excuse of Robert.

    But if you read this story it punctures Robert’s backbencher excuse as a lie. There was a financial interest while he was minister.

    So just as Morrison lying about the number of secret ministries after he was caught, Robert has lied about the alleged conflict after he has been caught.

    Margerison is a former army buddy.

  29. Cronus,
    Scott Morrison was also intuited by Trump to be at the level of his own psychopathy and sociopathy. Trump didn’t hand out a State Dinner with all the pomp and ceremony to just any national leader.

    You have to hand it to Anthony Albanese, Paul Erikson and Tim Gartrell, that, in order to defeat Morrison, they had to float like a butterfly and sting like a bee.

  30. ABC AM:

    A story on the Vic election interview voters and sneak in a cooker calming Covid was the flue.

    Those wanting a completely unbiased analysis of SM’s secret power grab, Su$$an Ley will be interviewed by PK at 7:30.

  31. Socrates

    “ I predicted before the election that as soon as Morrison was out of office lots of corrupt behaviour would hit the news once they no longer had the power of government to suppress it.”
    ——————————————————————————————-

    Everything touched by Robert should be investigated then disinfected. For a very long time this individual has had the stench of corruption about him. I do wonder what his fellow churchgoers think about him.

  32. Cronussays:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:22 am

    Socrates

    “ I predicted before the election that as soon as Morrison was out of office lots of corrupt behaviour would hit the news once they no longer had the power of government to suppress it.”
    ——————————————————————————————-

    Everything touched by Robert should be investigated then disinfected. For a very long time this individual has had the stench of corruption about him. I do wonder what his fellow churchgoers think about him.

    If you have a go, you get a go.

  33. At the very least, this description of Morrison is of a psychopath, cold, planned, no empathy, no guilt or shame, focussed on a goal and not a person, behaviour outside normal bounds. He was our leader
    ————————————
    Psychopath. Or a toddler. He parallel played with his Coalition colleagues and they all knew what he was like looooong before they made him their leader and backed him all the way until he lost. They’d still b backing him now if he won.

  34. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:11 am
    Cronus,
    Scott Morrison was also intuited by Trump to be at the level of his own psychopathy and sociopathy. Trump didn’t hand out a State Dinner with all the pomp and ceremony to just any national leader.

    You have to hand it to Anthony Albanese, Paul Erikson and Tim Gartrell, that, in order to defeat Morrison, they had to float like a butterfly and sting like a bee.
    ——————————————————————————————-

    (Chuckles) nice analogy C@T, and staying above the fray.
    On matters parliamentary, Albo was made for this job, he’s absolutely eating Dutton’s lunch and the Coalition are looking very rough around the edges while important legislation is proceeding at pace. Today’s Morrison revelations about his multiple ministries and Robert’s ongoing activities are just the cream on the cake.

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