Miscellaneous horse race commentary and developments from the past two days of the campaign, much of it involving the Victorian Electoral Commission:
• The Herald Sun reports Liberal sources saying Daniel Andrews’ personal ratings have “tanked” over the past fortnight, with his disapproval rating at 51%. Forty-four per cent wanted a Labor win, but 38% of Labor voters said they would favour a minority government. It should be noted that any Liberal polling would be limited to its target seats. The report also says the Greens rate themselves “a strong chance to win Northcote and Pascoe Vale”, the latter of which would be a turn-up. Conversely, Labor has “become more optimistic about its chances in Melton”, which it fears losing to independent Ian Birchall.
• John Ferguson of The Australian says views within the Labor camp about the number of seats it stands to lose range from “as little as seven or eight” to “as many as nineteen”, with anything more than ten being sufficient to cost the government its majority. A “senior ALP figure” said it was “hard to see the Liberal Party winning more than nine or ten seats” and “they could also lose a few”.
• The Liberal Party has accused the Victorian Electoral Commission of “serious, deliberate and unprecedented” interference in the election after its referral of potential breaches of donation laws to the Independent Broad-based Commission Against Corruption. The issue relates to alleged attempts by Matthew Guy’s chief-of-staff, Mitch Catlin, to encourage a businessman to make donations to his private business, which prompted Catlin’s resignation in August. The VEC says it has not received satisfactory responses to its invitations to the principals to respond to questions, although Guy told journalists on Thursday he had not had “any direct contact” with the commission. Electoral commissioner Warwick Gately presumably had this statement in mind when he said yesterday that the VEC had “not received the full co-operation from those connected to its investigation … despite public statements to the contrary”.
• The Liberals have referred Labor and preference negotiator Glenn Druery to IBAC over the video published in the Herald Sun on Thursday in which Druery discussed preference deals during a video conference, with MPs David Southwick and Louise Staley accusing Labor of “vote-rigging” over its rather tenuous connections to Druery’s activities. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports that Michael Piastrino, who is running for the Liberals against Daniel Andrews in Mulgrave, conducted a press conference yesterday alongside member of the anti-lockdown Freedom Party in which he called for the election to be “postponed and for the state government to go into administration … given the election can no longer be deemed valid”.
• Teal independents have succeeded in having the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal overturn the Victorian Electoral Commission’s determination that voters were likely to be misled by how-to-vote cards showing only one box numbered, with accompanying wording advising voters to number the remaining boxes in order of preference. If voters had indeed been misled, the effect would have been the opposite of what was plainly intended.
• A Lonergan Research poll for the Victorian National Parks Association, concerned mostly with public attitudes to national parks and conservation reserves, has breakdowns of voting intention by upper house region if you stick with it until the end, although the field work period was October 28 to November 6.
Trent says:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 12:30 pm
I also saw that minority Labor has shortened to $4 now, most likely just due to increased media coverage about it over the last week. I don’t think anything has particularly moved in favour of it……..
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$6.50 is available if you shop around.
I can get $15 (if I wanted it)
Perhaps that deranged person will find help easier to access.
Trent @ #400 Monday, November 21st, 2022 – 12:35 pm
It’s getting waaaay out of control! Thank goodness we don’t have the same intimiatory shenanigans here that just played out in the US Mid Terms! Guns, tactical gear and filming of everyone who dropped off a Mail In ballot.
It’s standard procedure for the Vic Nationals to contest Liberal-held seats in the regions when the MP is retiring, and vice-versa. I expect they’ll have another candidate nominated for the Narracan supplementary election.
I’m not interested in betting on minority Labor anyway, just interesting to see that it has shorted so much over the last few days, while simultaneously the Liberals’ odds have lengthened.
The reason that’s a bit contradictory, is because realistically for Labor to be reduced to a minority, the Liberals have to perform reasonably well in winning seats off them as well.
If the Liberals’ campaign imploding in the last few days has hurt their chances in seats like Box Hill, Ashwood, Ringwood, Bayswater, Glen Waverley, Sandringham and of course Narre Warren North itself, that would make minority government less likely since no competitive minors or INDs are running in any of those seats so it would help give Labor a buffer against potential losses to INDs & Greens in Hawthorn, Melton, Northcote, Richmond, etc.
Quote:
I see too that Catherine Cumming has been telling Neil Mitchell that she is dyslexic and that accounts for her language seemingly calling for people to shoot the Premier.
===
The other day she said she meant to say “red shirts”. As in, she joined politics to turn the premier into a “red shirt”, and in the army they used to call it a “pink shirt”.
Which is one of the dumbest excuses I can recall ever hearing.
Talking about violence during pre-polling:
nathsays:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 12:18 pm
I just realised I’m trying to have a rational discussion with goll. (slaps head).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-21/nationals-candidate-death-shaun-gilchrist/101677270
Nationals candidate for regional seat of Narracan found dead
ABC Gippsland
By Jarrod Whittaker
Posted 1h ago, updated 1m ago
A National Party candidate for a seat in eastern Victoria who died yesterday was due to face court later this month charged with rape.
Emergency services were called to Rawson, north of Morwell, on Sunday afternoon where a 47-year-old man was found dead.
Police say the man’s death is not being treated as suspicious.
The ABC understands the man was the Nationals candidate for Narracan, Shaun David Gilchrist.
Mr Gilchrist was due to face the County Court for a directions hearing on November 30.
He was facing three charges of sexual assault and one of rape.
Narracan in Victoria’s east covers the regional centres of Drouin and Warragul and smaller rural towns in north-west Gippsland.
……………………………………………….
Narracan is one of the Coalition’s safest seats and was held by the retiring Liberal Gary Blackwood at the 2018 election with 57.26 per cent of the two-candidate-preferred vote.
According to the Victorian Electoral Commission’s candidate handbook, when a candidate dies between the close of nominations and 6pm on election day the election is declared “failed”.
It says that “a new writ will be issued for a supplementary election in the district”.
‘Dyslexia’ is about being unable to read words.
‘Dysarthria’ is about being unable to pronounce words.
She said ‘red mist’ without the slightest degree of difficulty.
She was not reading.
IMO, she was encouraging political assassination.
Ant-fucking about ‘dyslexia’ does provide neither logical or ethical cover.
The fact that she even added the explanation – “in the army we call that pink mist” – and then on top of that made a second reference to the army “blowing things up”, made perfectly clear what her intention was at the time. And it had nothing to do with red shirts or preference whispering.
Leroy @ #408 Monday, November 21st, 2022 – 12:52 pm
Thanks for the link. Adds important context.
Aphasia, or dysphasia, would be the most appropriate clinical term for her claimed difficulty (using the wrong word/expression, which is a language problem, not one specific to reading or articulation). Except as others have stated, she elaborated on what she meant, removing any ambiguity.
She also uses the title ‘Dr’ on her instagram – she’s a traditional Chinese medicine practitioner.
Another thing I’m fascinated with, because clearly it wasn’t that hard to get the info. Why wasn’t Mr. Gilchrist’s impending court date reported before he died? Surely people facing criminal charges shouldn’t be allowed to stand?
Mr. Newbie @ #412 Monday, November 21st, 2022 – 1:08 pm
Shye has also used one of the Lunar Right’s go to defenses: I have a ‘insert mental or physical disability here’ problem, so I can’t be held responsible for my actions.
@ C@tmomma1247
John Howard always went on about how the Liberal Party is a” broad church”.
It is evident that those words have come back to haunt him.
” Broad church” it is with religious members ranging from fair-dinkum decent, concerned Christians to extremist religious members. Along with those religious members, the Liberals have spawned and suckled a plethora of neo- fascist and Trumpian – like groups who, while not members of the Liberals, shelter under the Liberals umbrella mantra of not directly condemning the outrageous and anti-democratic behaviour of these groups.
It seems the Liberals believe that, if a group is anti- Labor ( or just anti-Dan in Victoria’s case), then they’re welcome in the broad church…as long as they don’t directly involve themselves with Liberal Party policies- then they’re welcome. Shades of Trump calling right- wing neo- fascist groups ” decent people”.
I can see the Teals becoming a progressive Liberal-style party-conservative economically, socially progressive, pro-small government.
I think the current form of the Liberals is a recipe for collapse. The removal of so-called “moderates” in the last election was terminal for any claim to be a Party for all and a real ” broad church ” in a non- religious way.
And for that, all the fingers point to The Lying Rat. John Winston Howard..
The question needs to be asked – were the Vic Nats aware of the charges laid against Mr Gilchrist at the time of his endorsement ?
Rex douglas
Good question.
While betting odds might have moved the AEForecasts model (currently showing a 9.6% probability of an ALP minority government) hasn’t moved in recent days. There hasn’t been publicly reported polling of course which I assume is the main input to the forecast model.
Always love reading about what a halfwit from Sydney thinks is best for Victoria.
somethinglikethat
I’m thought he got the lemon and sars a while ago. 😆
There is the principle of presumption of innocence – so I can’t see how facing a criminal charge could legally be used to prevent someone from stand.
However, the National party (or at least someone in the party) must have known and it looks like both the Liberals and Nationals have had trouble with their vetting processes.
The fact that there will be supplementary election might have saved the seat for the coalition (but also creates a sense of Deja vu of 1999 for those suggesting it will be a hung parliament).
They wouldn’t have lost that seat regardless, this may give more time for a serious independent to challenge though. Tony Wolfe, an ex-councillor involved in Voices of Monash was running but only on short notice. A by election generally puts more spotlight on the seat since only 1 election is happening instead of 88. ALP can not win that seat, especially because Moe, the only real Labor voting town in that seat was moved into Morwell, making it the safest Liberal seat in the state going from a margin of 7.3 to 10.
Justin says:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 1:16 pm
…. Surely people facing criminal charges shouldn’t be allowed to stand?’
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I believe they can, and do.
…. Surely people facing criminal charges shouldn’t be allowed to stand?’
———————————————
I believe they can, and do.
??Donald Trump
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Just watching Guy presser – why is he doing it? He looks awful. Surely he knew everyone would be asking about the recently deceased Coalition (Nationals) candidate?
Justin – No, you are right. I got it mixed up with Morwell. I doubt that the ALP will even bother running in the Supplementary election (just let some independent or Green take their vote).
I think the ALP will run, because it will count toward their full state result after all since there wasn’t a proper election. Also, running a low key campaign will allow voters to gravitate to an independent on their own. If they pull out entirely, coalition voters thinking about switching may get spooked. It is awful for the Coalition, not just because their candidate died, but now if the Coalition has a new leader and is in the wilderness on a rump of MPs, the voters will already have the knowledge that their MP will be in opposition for a further four years. A bad bad scenario for the Coalition. Deb Leonard got 10.72% as a teal in the corresponding seat of Monash, and she was selected ahead of now Narracan candidate Tony Wolfe. Not sure if a teal will work in this scenario and region, and also because the candidate is a man. However, Leonard is from the opposite end of Monash (Philip Island, which is in the state electorate of Bass) and thus most of her votes came from that area. Leonard polled 24% in the Cowes Pre Poll federally. Wolfe is based in Warragul. Warragul did swing heavily against Russell Broadbent federally.
Fracking is a big issue in country Vic.
Vic farmers generally don’t want fracking – and Matt Guy’s commitment to turbo-charge gas production will be a major issue in the regions.
If the ALP had polling that the new SEC was popular in Narracan then they might chance their arm by running a candidate.
Victorians have a real choice in this election:
The Voice Busters
The Clowns
The Variegated Teals
The Cookers.
Labor.
The election will be another Murdoch failure.
“I’m not interested in betting on minority Labor anyway, just interesting to see that it has shorted so much over the last few days, while simultaneously the Liberals’ odds have lengthened.”
Well, the scenario for minority Labor is really “The Greens and indies take so many seats Labor falls into minority” more than that there’s a big swing to the Libs. It doesn’t take a huge swing (maybe 3%) for the Libs to win 7-8 seats, a couple of which are already theirs but are made notionally marginal Labor by the redistribution. After that the swings required climb sharply, there is no chance they get majority government. But if you believe hard in indies and Greens (with Lib preferences) then you could see them getting another 5-6 seats which would be enough along with the Lib gains to put Labor into minority.
What does the voice have to do with state politics? It’s like debating the federal tax cuts. Useless.
Doesn’t Bevan Shields have someone to go out as gay, or maybe a lockout to go and misreport? Why does he think anybody in Victoria gives a shit what he says?
Sweet jebus does Bevan Shield know that NSW is the worst performing economy in the country. Lol.
I can’t see the ALP not continuing to run in Narracan,why else would they have promised to build a new West Gippsland hospital on a greenfields site between Warragul & Drouin matching the Lib/Nat promise to do the same thing.
As mentioned by Justin why vote for a candidate that is certain to be in opposition for another four years stumbling around like a bunch of Dodo’s.
btw.Warragul is the cooker centre of Narracan,much like Sale is for East Gippsland and would certainly play hard in local politics, scratch my back sort of politics.One of their assemblies is so big it’s the size of a warehouse distribution center with no windows and when all cookers arrive to receive their instructions on making money and going to heaven unlike the unworthy,they lock the gates and close the doors to all.
Naccaran was not impossible for Labor but would have been difficult. The boundary change meant Labor had its vote weakened by about 3?%
In that seat. Labor needed a.10% swing to win. I thought it was possible for Labor to win this seat despite it being safe on paper. I based this upon the ongoing demographic change favourable to.labor.and the.loss of Mr
Blackwood “s personal vote
Justin says:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 2:35 pm
What does the voice have to do with state politics? It’s like debating the federal tax cuts. Useless.
______
Boerwar mustn’t be getting many bites in the open thread. Brings his shtick in here.
Get back to work, Nath!
Ever time I decide to procrastinate some more, you pop up! I know you have things you should be doing!
As my now departed friend liked to say…. Fascinating election.
Every day some new twist pops up. I am almost scared to go to sleep at night for fear of what the next day will bring.
Meanwhile no one but we bludgers seem to care that there is an election on in 5 days.
‘Please give us your trust,’ Guy tells undecided voters
By Broede Carmody
Opposition Leader Matthew Guy is currently holding a press conference where he’s implored undecided voters to choose the Coalition on Saturday.
“Please give us your trust,” he said. “Try the Coalition. We’ve got a sensible, reasonable plan for Victoria.”
Opposition Leader Matthew Guy and Victorian Nationals leader Peter Walsh address the media this afternoon.
Opposition Leader Matthew Guy and Victorian Nationals leader Peter Walsh address the media this afternoon. Credit:Nine
The comments come as the Coalition launches its “real solutions” plan. Guy describes it as the most comprehensive policy agenda an opposition has ever brought to a Victorian election.
However, the press conference was dominated by questions about the late Nationals’ candidate, Shaun Gilchrist.
As Rachel Eddie has reported, the 47-year-old was due to face the County Court next Wednesday for a directions hearing on three charges of sexual assault and one count of rape. His death is not being treated as suspicious.
Nationals leader Peter Walsh had this to say:
rang me to inform me that Shaun had passed away overnight. She asked me to respect the family’s privacy. They have two young children. He has children by another relationship that live in New Zealand. And she specifically asked me to respect their privacy through this time. I’m going to do that. And as time goes on, she will make funeral arrangements and I’ll be attending that funeral.
I’m not going to get into a commentary about the issues because I have been specifically asked by his widow to respect their privacy, and I will do that.
Asked whether he was aware of the allegations Gilchrist had been facing, Walsh said: “I’m not aware of any of that.”
The Nationals leader added that the Victorian Electoral Commission will be holding a briefing at 3.30pm for the candidates in the seat of Narracan, in eastern Victoria, to inform them of what happens next.
If you or anyone you know needs support call Lifeline 131 114, or Beyond Blue 1300 224 636.
MABWM says:
As my now departed friend liked to say…. Fascinating election.
___________
Let’s hope it is as fascinating as the one in May. Which was the best election ever. The Rise of the Greens and the Teals have certainly made elections much more interesting and intricate. The old red vs blue contests were becoming boring.
Election night I’m having Indian. Just got to decide on the wine.
Apart from the fact thar the candidate is now deceased. The person was facing criminal charges that were already before the courts.
That alone was disqualifying. What the heck…
Nath
“Boerwar mustn’t be getting many bites in the open thread. Brings his shtick in here.”
Says the self confessing violent prepoll activist, Nath, “slaps (his own )head” with his own shtick!
<i.Opposition Leader Matthew Guy is currently holding a press conference where he’s implored undecided voters to choose the Coalition on Saturday.
“Please give us your trust,” he said.
Please give us your trust.
This bloke just Kirkuped.
Bear in mind that what is now coming to light re those pre-selected by the LNP is only the tip of the iceberg.
There are many more where you have to wonder how they got to the pre-selection stage let alone the nominated Candidate.
And it is not as if it is in seats they will not win, so difficulty in attracting a candidate, any candidate.
These are their blue ribbon seats.
Ambushed by IPA types and Pentecostals.
This is how Murdoch got Morrison over Towke.
So just more of the same.
Turns out the Coalition has preferenced Tylere Baker-Pearce ahead of Labor in the seat of Narre Warren South. He’s an independent who has a smiling selfie at Auschwitz and is clearly a white supremacist based on his tweets. I mentioned the record number of minor party conservative candidates (and conservative is too weak a word for this guy) but if you add the independents its just insane.
Victoria @10.16 asks; “What Happened to Jeremy?”
Victoria, after asking him early yesterday to cite all of his mystery polling to support his election postulations, I think that I can give you an answer.
I think that he is too busy searching for all of this polling data, to waste his time trolling the legitimate posters on this site.
Alternatively, William, like many of us, may be sick of his disrespectful attitude towards Poll Bludgers and has given him a little enforced rest from posting on this site.
Do you miss him?
According to The Age this arvo:
‘
“Competition for the state seats of Hawthorn and Kew is heating up, with the Liberal Party putting flyers in letterboxes in the electorates saying a vote for a teal independent candidate is a vote to re-elect the Andrews government.”
Desperado
Why don’t you come to your senses?
You’ve been out ridin’ fences
For so long now.
@Grime, I saw a similar poster in a paid advertising spot in a phone booth in the Caulfield electorate yesterday.
It was a poster of Dan that said “The ONLY way to get rid of him is to vote Liberal”.
No explicit mention of the teal but the wording there is definitely targeted to preventing a LIB to IND swing in the seat.
Justin @ #447 Monday, November 21st, 2022 – 3:50 pm
The thing that I don’t understand is why the media don’t jump all over this, and Matthew Guy, for making these conscious decisions? It goes to the character and values of the party he leads.