Miscellaneous horse race commentary and developments from the past two days of the campaign, much of it involving the Victorian Electoral Commission:
• The Herald Sun reports Liberal sources saying Daniel Andrews’ personal ratings have “tanked” over the past fortnight, with his disapproval rating at 51%. Forty-four per cent wanted a Labor win, but 38% of Labor voters said they would favour a minority government. It should be noted that any Liberal polling would be limited to its target seats. The report also says the Greens rate themselves “a strong chance to win Northcote and Pascoe Vale”, the latter of which would be a turn-up. Conversely, Labor has “become more optimistic about its chances in Melton”, which it fears losing to independent Ian Birchall.
• John Ferguson of The Australian says views within the Labor camp about the number of seats it stands to lose range from “as little as seven or eight” to “as many as nineteen”, with anything more than ten being sufficient to cost the government its majority. A “senior ALP figure” said it was “hard to see the Liberal Party winning more than nine or ten seats” and “they could also lose a few”.
• The Liberal Party has accused the Victorian Electoral Commission of “serious, deliberate and unprecedented” interference in the election after its referral of potential breaches of donation laws to the Independent Broad-based Commission Against Corruption. The issue relates to alleged attempts by Matthew Guy’s chief-of-staff, Mitch Catlin, to encourage a businessman to make donations to his private business, which prompted Catlin’s resignation in August. The VEC says it has not received satisfactory responses to its invitations to the principals to respond to questions, although Guy told journalists on Thursday he had not had “any direct contact” with the commission. Electoral commissioner Warwick Gately presumably had this statement in mind when he said yesterday that the VEC had “not received the full co-operation from those connected to its investigation … despite public statements to the contrary”.
• The Liberals have referred Labor and preference negotiator Glenn Druery to IBAC over the video published in the Herald Sun on Thursday in which Druery discussed preference deals during a video conference, with MPs David Southwick and Louise Staley accusing Labor of “vote-rigging” over its rather tenuous connections to Druery’s activities. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports that Michael Piastrino, who is running for the Liberals against Daniel Andrews in Mulgrave, conducted a press conference yesterday alongside member of the anti-lockdown Freedom Party in which he called for the election to be “postponed and for the state government to go into administration … given the election can no longer be deemed valid”.
• Teal independents have succeeded in having the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal overturn the Victorian Electoral Commission’s determination that voters were likely to be misled by how-to-vote cards showing only one box numbered, with accompanying wording advising voters to number the remaining boxes in order of preference. If voters had indeed been misled, the effect would have been the opposite of what was plainly intended.
• A Lonergan Research poll for the Victorian National Parks Association, concerned mostly with public attitudes to national parks and conservation reserves, has breakdowns of voting intention by upper house region if you stick with it until the end, although the field work period was October 28 to November 6.
Nath
I’m blaming the ABC for not doing enough to inform the public about the peculiarities of the Legislative Council. (and other stuff).
What’s the Greens policy regarding the Legislative Council ?
Just wondering!
@Mick regarding Prahran:
If the Liberals were preferencing Labor like usual then the boundary changes would definitely have put the Greens more at risk due to the possibility of the Liberals finishing third; but the Liberals’ preferencing decision has definitely locked this up for the Greens now.
I still think there’s probably a 70% chance it will remain a GRN v LIB contest (which would be an easy double-digit Greens win); but even if the Liberals do finish third in the 3CP count, the Greens should comfortably beat Labor.
Also Sam Hibbins is a popular, and relatively moderate / uncontroversial local member. He’s no Lydia Thorpe. I expect him to get a significant swing in his favour, especially since the federal results were so favourable to the Greens in the overlapping area (+10% compared to Hibbins’ 2018 primary vote).
@goll – The Greens policy on the LC has firmly been to scrap GTV. They’ve probably been the most vocally opposed, especially after losing 4 seats in 2018 as a result of it.
goll says:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 9:05 am
Are there any opinions about the coverage of the Victorian election by the “Frank” and “Fearless” from “your” ABC ?
—
I thought the ABC coverage of the May federal election was poor, and nothing really has changed for this election.
Of course I expect there’ll be breathless praise for Perrottet early next year when NSW goes to the polls.
Day 1 of the final week of the campaign, and if you look at the Herald Sun website there is not one article about the Victorian election in the entire top section of stories today.
Seems odd. Make of that what you will.
Regarding the ABC coverage, the only ABC I regularly consume is Classic FM.
Their news coverage depends on the time of the day, but the breakfast news is a straight-up reading of the Liberal party newsletter. At one point last year, they were leading every broadcast with “The Victorian opposition says…” except for the day that the first story was the cops finding Cleo and the second (much longer) story was Scott Morrison posting something on Facebook about the cops finding Cleo.
What happened to jeremy?
From posting ad nauseum. Radio silence.
Hmmm……
Trent
Usual practice for news corp. Non reporting is part of their modus operandi.
Yeah it seems that after a shocker of a few days for the Liberals with one scandal after another – IBAC, baseless election fraud claims, Renee Heath, Catherine Cumming, Timothy Dragan – the Herald Sun have just decided it’s probably better to divert attention away from the election altogether for a few days.
Either that, or perhaps they have some new polling that indicates their heavy handed smear campaign has failed so they’ve just given up now.
I have noticed that since about Saturday, even The Age has really softened it’s anti-Labor stance. I don’t know if maybe because they have realised they picked the wrong side, or perhaps the most recent behaviour of the Liberals was a step too far for them to keep endorsing them.
Re: Jeremy, I think he may have got banned. He hasn’t posted since William’s “I’ve had more than enough of Jeremy” post.
Trent
Fair summary re state of play.
Ah i didnt realise jeremy was banned.
Jeremy engages lawyers, considers human rights complaint.
Jeremy engages lawyers, considers human rights complaint.
——————————–
Minority, minority $17 get on …………
https://youtu.be/bVTaJ9sKa_Y
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_district_of_Narracan
https://twitter.com/LuiFromTheRadio/status/1594473116939747329
The State Director of @TheNationalsVic has issued a statement regarding the death of their Candidate for Narracan, Shaun Gilchrist. Gilchrist was contesting the seat after the retirement of the Liberal Member Gary Blackwood.
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1594476323170549760
As with federal Reps elections, the death of a candidate for #Narracan means no lower house count for the district and a subsequent supplementary election for that seat. #Vicvotes
Trent says:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 10:10 am
Day 1 of the final week of the campaign, and if you look at the Herald Sun website there is not one article about the Victorian election in the entire top section of stories today.
—
Not true Trent.
Example 34562 of how the Libs understand the rising cost of living pressures.
Jeremy stopped posting, Nath jumped on this stream.
Chuck Norris was born the day Nazi Germany surrendered.
Neither jack Reacher, nor I, believe in coincidenci.
Are the remaining 5-6 horsepeople of the apocalypse hiding in plain sight as candidates for the Liberal Party, at least two of them in top spot in the upper house tickets, going to be exposed this week?
How did Narre Warren North and Mulgrave branches choose the people they have chosen?
Now that Jeremy has ceased his commentary who is going to call Trent a %^$*!?
So many questions.
That wasn’t there when I looked, but looking again now I do see one election related article – something about Louise Staley’s expensive shoes!
Assume the next polls will not cover specific seats. Assume they will be state wide and look at primary and 2pp voting intention, as well as better Premier only. Fridays papers?
RIP to Shaun Gilchrist, Nationals candidate for Narracan. A sad start to the final week of the campaign.
I assume any polls published on Friday will probably be conducted from around Monday to Thursday; right in the aftermath of a string of Liberal controversies, so I can only see those polls moving in Labor’s direction after the disastrous weekend the Libs had.
Justin
Just saw that – sad. And of course like with Frankston East in 1999 it means there will be no election in Narracan (though people will still be voting for the upper house – would surely reduce turnout)
In 1999 the rescheduled election was October 16, four weeks later.
Four weeks post November 26 would be December 24, Christmas Eve – I think it will be deferred until late January.
Sorry, no vale Jeremy.
If he/ she was a Greens supporter, then fine, doing their best to talk up the Greens.
But he/ she overstepped the boundaries on more than one occasion. Sure, things get heated at times on PB, but most posters get over that or ignore that . Sure, there is no doubt this is a progressive blog, but there are plenty of reactionary blogs for that side of politics to contribute to and find support.
To come on here and push the aggressive, self- opinionated,dismissive and consistent barrage
of lines Jeremy engaged in eventually did him/ her in, with a curt comment from WB. William is pretty tolerant but Jeremy pushed too many buttons.
So, roll on the election, chew over the results, and then take a breather over Christmas. Then the NSW election debate begins…..
William booted Jeremy off the blog after he picked a silly fight with me on Saturday afternoon.
“Victoria says:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 10:16 am
What happened to jeremy?
From posting ad nauseum. Radio silence.
Hmmm……”
His casual contract was terminated?…..
Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist death described by Nationals leader as “Tragic and unexpected”.
I have often worried about the impact of campaigning and politics on people’s physical and mental health.
Historically there have been some bad outcomes on both counts.
Trent
In these days of massive pre-poll voting I wonder if one of the questions in late election campaign polling is, or should be, “have you already voted? Who for?”
The Age is reporting today that more than 800,000 votes are in.
MABWM says:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 10:55 am
Jeremy stopped posting, Nath jumped on this stream.
Chuck Norris was born the day Nazi Germany surrendered.
Neither jack Reacher, nor I, believe in coincidenci.
_______________
LOL. that’s amusing. But no, I’m not Jeremy.
Toby Esterhase says:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 11:33 am
William booted Jeremy off the blog after he picked a silly fight with me on Saturday afternoon.
—
To be fair Toby, Jeremy picked silly fights with many posters over the past few weeks.
True that, but it was the one he picked with me Saturday afternoon that finally did it. It was especially silly – even for Jeremy.
I don’t know what Jeremy did, but I’m going to be on my best behaviour while William is in a decapitation mood.
Toby Esterhase says:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 11:45 am
True that, but it was the one he picked with me Saturday afternoon that finally did it. It was especially silly – even for Jeremy.
_________
Don’t mess with Toby or bad things happen to you.
Doubt the Liberals problems will change the result much but they make a nice excuse for the loss.
File this under WTF:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-21/lauren-odwyer-labor-candidate-aboriginal-heritage-claim/101675786
nath,
Toby Esterhase is, after all, in The Circus. Head of Lamplighters.
I don’t know about that Nath! I’ve never seen the two of you in the same room at the same time.
(I believe you btw, just having a bit of fun at your expense while I procrastinate at work – which I do very very very well).
What are the current odds for minority Labor?
@nath
I saw that too. It’s a weird one, as I’d doubt O’Dwyer win anyway – Richmond’s a lock for the Greens without Maltzahn to mess it up for them.
It’s obviously not ok to pretend to be indigenous, but then, there are plenty of examples of the paper trail being problematic and families getting into protracted arguments with the local land council.
Jacqui Lambie quite possibly isn’t indigenous either – if you ask the Tasmanian Aboriginal Corp she *definitely* isn’t. But her insisting she is hasn’t hurt her career yet.
United Firefighters Union has registered HTVs in Western Victoria Region (Greens), Melton (Ian Birchall), Western Metro Region (Greens), Point Cook (Joe Garra), St Albans (Virginia Tachos), Northern Metro Region (Reason), Northcote (Greens), Richmond (Greens), Thomastown (Greens)
MABWM says:
(I believe you btw, just having a bit of fun at your expense while I procrastinate at work – which I do very very very well).
What are the current odds for minority Labor?
_______
I hear ya pal.
Labor minority moved in to $4, from $7 I believe.
That’s an interesting line-up for the UFU to have chosen. Mostly a grab-bag of the most likely non-Labor left (or leftish) option?
Ah well. Anything that helps get Fiona elected in Nth Metro is fine by me. Not sold on Garra or Birchall though.
nathsays:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 11:49 am
File this under WTF:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-21/lauren-odwyer-labor-candidate-aboriginal-heritage-claim/101675786
Very Sky News of the ABC!
“a bolt from the blue”, perhaps
Goll, you want the ABC to educate the public on the Legislative Council. I daresay that most of their audience is well aware of the issues.
The problem is the ratings of the ABC are not significant. So if they ran informative programs every day it would unlikely make much of a difference.
I just realised I’m trying to have a rational discussion with goll. (slaps head).
Very sad.
Trent – 1010am
I think this happened before the federal election. After days and days of successive anti-Labor headlines they took a breather and had non-political front pages a few times.
Murdoch hates to be seen to be backing a loser – and if the last few days are not rabidly anti-Labor they hope the public will just forget.
Australia’s involvement in the World Cup may get some prominence.
I see too that Catherine Cumming has been telling Neil Mitchell that she is dyslexic and that accounts for her language seemingly calling for people to shoot the Premier.
If Neil believes that I’ve got several bridges to sell him.
What would the Herald-Sun headline have been if those same words had come at a rally from the mouth of an independent Islamic MP – especially say about a Coalition Premier or PM?
I wonder if the Nationals will even stand a candidate again in the new Narracan election, they hadn’t stood since 2006 which is the first time the retiring Lib won it (and the Nats only got 5.9% back in 2006)
@Toby Esterhase 1152
I guess, in the end, for William, it was a question of …Toby or not Toby…
I also saw that minority Labor has shortened to $4 now, most likely just due to increased media coverage about it over the last week. I don’t think anything has particularly moved in favour of it.
In fact, the Libs’ recent troubles will work against it because Labor are more likely now to hold onto (or gain) the ALP/LIB marginals.
However, Liberal majority has blown out from around $14 to $28! Probably a mix of two things – the disastrous last few days, and their safest seat Narracan now being removed from the contest making their path to a pre-byelection majority a net gain of 20 seats out 87, rather than 19 out of 88.
Victoria says:
“What happened to jeremy?”
Schoolies Week?
This is disgusting behaviour from the freaks on the Lunar Right:
Sarah Haar
@Sarah_Haar_
After experiencing a prolonged screaming & threatening tirade from this fake tradie at the Brunswick pre-poll this weekend I am convinced the far right movement have recruited & paid these people to rock up just to abuse volunteers handing out HTVs. #auspol #cooked
This guy rocked up, said he was a “plumber” & was not there to vote, began swearing & yelling directly at me and other volunteers. He pointed fingers in my face, bellowed to the point spit was flying out of his mouth & then broke out into rehearsed songs inciting violence.
He then entered the booth singing his loud song about hanging Dan Andrews & others until he was turfed out back onto the street. VEC made no effort to remove him from the pre-poll area and he continued to harass for 20+ minutes.
He then targeted me directly, called me a “corrupt dog” as well as other offensive terms repeatedly to the point where voters stepped in to ask if I was ok. This behaviour is completely unacceptable, threatening and abusive.
While it could be argued he’s one person, these incidents are NOT isolated. We’ve seen a number of disturbing cases of abuse & violence on pre-poll already which appears to be escalating. No help that sitting MPs like Catherine Cumming are inciting these attitudes & behaviours.
Having lived in Brunswick for 12+ years, my strong sense is that this person was not a Brunnie local. As swiftly as he arrived, he was off again, presumably to his next pre-poll location to spray his abuse. He was doing his rounds.
Rocket Rocket @ #393 Monday, November 21st, 2022 – 12:20 pm
What’s an idiotic ‘dyslexic’ cooker doing being allowed to be in parliament for then anyway? Also, Catherine, dyslexia refers to words on a page or blackboard, not the words that come out of your vile mouth.
That’s awful, and the irony is, that sort of behaviour will only increase the likelihood of swinging undecided centrist voters to Labor for no other reason than not wanting to be associated with the embarrassing and disgusting behaviour of the “anti-Dan” mob.