Miscellaneous horse race commentary and developments from the past two days of the campaign, much of it involving the Victorian Electoral Commission:
• The Herald Sun reports Liberal sources saying Daniel Andrews’ personal ratings have “tanked” over the past fortnight, with his disapproval rating at 51%. Forty-four per cent wanted a Labor win, but 38% of Labor voters said they would favour a minority government. It should be noted that any Liberal polling would be limited to its target seats. The report also says the Greens rate themselves “a strong chance to win Northcote and Pascoe Vale”, the latter of which would be a turn-up. Conversely, Labor has “become more optimistic about its chances in Melton”, which it fears losing to independent Ian Birchall.
• John Ferguson of The Australian says views within the Labor camp about the number of seats it stands to lose range from “as little as seven or eight” to “as many as nineteen”, with anything more than ten being sufficient to cost the government its majority. A “senior ALP figure” said it was “hard to see the Liberal Party winning more than nine or ten seats” and “they could also lose a few”.
• The Liberal Party has accused the Victorian Electoral Commission of “serious, deliberate and unprecedented” interference in the election after its referral of potential breaches of donation laws to the Independent Broad-based Commission Against Corruption. The issue relates to alleged attempts by Matthew Guy’s chief-of-staff, Mitch Catlin, to encourage a businessman to make donations to his private business, which prompted Catlin’s resignation in August. The VEC says it has not received satisfactory responses to its invitations to the principals to respond to questions, although Guy told journalists on Thursday he had not had “any direct contact” with the commission. Electoral commissioner Warwick Gately presumably had this statement in mind when he said yesterday that the VEC had “not received the full co-operation from those connected to its investigation … despite public statements to the contrary”.
• The Liberals have referred Labor and preference negotiator Glenn Druery to IBAC over the video published in the Herald Sun on Thursday in which Druery discussed preference deals during a video conference, with MPs David Southwick and Louise Staley accusing Labor of “vote-rigging” over its rather tenuous connections to Druery’s activities. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports that Michael Piastrino, who is running for the Liberals against Daniel Andrews in Mulgrave, conducted a press conference yesterday alongside member of the anti-lockdown Freedom Party in which he called for the election to be “postponed and for the state government to go into administration … given the election can no longer be deemed valid”.
• Teal independents have succeeded in having the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal overturn the Victorian Electoral Commission’s determination that voters were likely to be misled by how-to-vote cards showing only one box numbered, with accompanying wording advising voters to number the remaining boxes in order of preference. If voters had indeed been misled, the effect would have been the opposite of what was plainly intended.
• A Lonergan Research poll for the Victorian National Parks Association, concerned mostly with public attitudes to national parks and conservation reserves, has breakdowns of voting intention by upper house region if you stick with it until the end, although the field work period was October 28 to November 6.
Lobster Guy had to know .
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/inside-city-builders-the-pentecostal-sect-with-lofty-political-goals-20221117-p5bz1x.html
Snappy Tom @ #300 Sunday, November 20th, 2022 – 4:10 pm
They largely bury this type of news.
But Vic Labor know the deal with traditional media and instead focus heavily on a sophisticated social media strategy to sell their agenda.
Expat @ #300 Sunday, November 20th, 2022 – 4:17 pm
I must have missed it.
A week to go,but don’t forget how Victorian MPs voted on the Voluntary Assisted Dying Bill 2017.
https://www.gogentleaustralia.org.au/nomoredebate_mps_voting
Conservative minor party candidates
2006 – 88 Family First Victoria, 15 Citizens Electoral Council = 103
2010 – 70 FFV, 36 DLP, 29 Country Alliance, 2 Christian Democrats = 137
2014 – 39 FFV, 38 CA, 32 Rise Up Australia, 30 Australian Christians, 5 DLP, 3 SFF = 147
2018 – 22 DLP, 8 SFF, 6 DHJP, 4 LDP, 3 Aussie Battler Party, 2 CA, 1 Liberty Alliance = 46
2022 – 88 FFV, 58 FPV, 32 DLP, 11 LDP, 10 DHJP, 6 SFF, 5 PHON, 3 AVP, 3 HAP, 1 CPP = 217
Justin
So the Liberal vote will bleed in more directions, and not necessarily go back to them on preferences.
Kos Samaras has the same notion:
https://twitter.com/KosSamaras/status/1586957568131276800
Who are the minor parties in Victoria’s upper house election?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/who-are-the-minor-parties-in-victoria-s-upper-house-election-20221118-p5bzcv.html
Interesting viewing on 60 mins tonight about 8.20pm.
A feature on the cookers.
Had the misfortune to watch Patricia Karvelas on News 24.. after concerted hatchet job on Dan & his failure in outer Melbourne seats.. she finished with a panel talking about minority government.
Yeah sure from 65% of et seats to less than 50%.
‘Sceptic says:
Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 7:23 pm
Had the misfortune to watch Patricia Karvelas on News 24.. after concerted hatchet job on Dan….’
———————————————————–
Ms Karvelas does for the Teals what Albrechtson does for the Wackaloon Right?
Regarding Mitch Catlin’s misadventure(s):
Basically, what this amounts to is this: A (potential/likely) future Premier’s chief of staff was “suggesting” that a businessman give him some dosh, albeit through his company rather than directly. This is not a good thing, naturally, but Mitch Catlin was never standing and making a bid for the Premier’s office. His boss was.
Given how much influence a Chief of Staff usually has over their principal (the CoS usually has at least a finger in pretty much all major office decisions), the spectre of “Did Matthew Guy know of what Catlin was doing? If so, did he care?” must be addressed – no matter what the corrupt hacks of the Murdochcracy say. And I must admit that I don’t really think that it matters whether or not Matthew Guy knew about his CoS’ attempt to reap private benefit from his public position – it should disqualify him from leadership roles regardless.
Consider that there are 3 potential varieties of answer to the above question, and that all of them should disqualify Guy from the Premier’s office (if for varying reasons):
1) Guy genuinely didn’t know. This means that Matthew Guy, who hopes to become the next Premier of Victoria, appointed as his most influential staffer a corrupt rent-seeker. And, furthermore, didn’t see what he was doing with the power with which Guy entrusted him. This makes Guy not qualified to lead a tucker-shop, due to being blind and/or gullible.
2) Guy didn’t know, but only because he didn’t want to know. This means that, when confronted with the appearance of improper behaviour by those close to him, Guy simply stuck his fingers in his ears and looked the other way. Alternatively, it means that he simply didn’t care enough to do anything unless/until forced to by outside factors (i.e., publicity). The first possibility marks him as avoidant, the second as either sleazy or indifferent to corruption. In neither case would I even consider voting for him to run a drinking-party in a distillery.
3) Guy did know, and didn’t bother to do anything about it until forced to. This is the worst possibility from Guy’s perspective, since it means that he was (at least passively) complicit in Catlin’s corrupt activities. Needless to say, someone nodding along to their cronies “asking” for kickbacks places them beneath my contempt, while someone actively encouraging them to do so should be prosecuted.
Basically: If the Victorian media were doing their jobs, this story would have sunk Guy long ago under a storm of opprobrium. It didn’t, because most of the media studiously ignored it until it was shoved right under their noses. Somehow, I doubt that the “good journalists” (know of any?) at the Herald-Sun or the Australian would have been so reticent, had Catlin been the Chief of Staff to any Labor MP (much less Dan Andrews). After all, witness how they covered the story about Andrews’ fall down a staircase – or the decade-old story about his car prang!
Now Guy has upset Heath
If Kos is right about the Liberals missing out on any swing against Andrews in the outer suburbs would be the best outcome for them because they need to get over themselves.
citizen
Just another snowflake?
The Age is finding it increasingly difficult to criticise Andrews and boost Guy
citizen @ #316 Sunday, November 20th, 2022 – 7:34 pm
Continuing the trend maybe citizen.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/i-don-t-just-want-this-for-the-win-what-s-really-motivating-daniel-andrews-20221116-p5byvk.html
Here’s some more fun reading. Chris Crewther in Mornington might be the next story to blow up this week?
https://twitter.com/ConalFeehely/status/1594211449324249089?cxt=HHwWgoCp3bu3458sAAAA
Note carefully that both Crewther and Renee Heath were preselected over an ALREADY sitting member. So the Liberal Party have installed two members of the fundamentalist religious right into safe seats, backstabbing another party member in the process. This is not an accident.
Any polling likely to drop tonight?
Expat – been keeping an eye on all the usual suspects on twitter, and there is no informed chatter at all about any Vic (or national) polling. There could be something tonight, but maybe the newspaper budgets no longer stretch to paying for a poll with a week to go, and also putting out a poll the day before like they usually do.
Expat says:
Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 8:48 pm
Any polling likely to drop tonight?
————————
At this stage only 60 minutes currently in play.
“Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 7:31 pm
If Kos is right about the Liberals missing out on any swing against Andrews in the outer suburbs would be the best outcome for them because they need to get over themselves.”
The Liberals just follow orders, from the moneyed class. For as long as the orders coming from the masters are the same, the Liberals won’t change.
Alpo says:
Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 9:07 pm
“Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 7:31 pm
If Kos is right about the Liberals missing out on any swing against Andrews in the outer suburbs would be the best outcome for them because they need to get over themselves.”
The Liberals just follow orders, from the moneyed class. For as long as the orders coming from the masters are the same, the Liberals won’t change.
———————————–
The Liberals have been losing the moneyed class.
Urgh. We need some actual numbers to talk about.
I have been trolling BoerWar and his mates on the DLP Facebook page. An amusing way to spend half an hour or so.
Smuthearse in the Costello rag with yet another character assassination attempt
“Sources say ……”
“Sources don’t believe him ….”
Perhaps Smuthearse should ask Costello for a clearance back to News Corp
Or actually interview Andrews and report the responses of Andrews
For the last near 3 years the citizens of the World have lived with the threat of a WHO described Pandemic
Fortunately a vaccine was developed
But the Pandemic still has an impact, people losing their lives
And an impact economically due to supply chain interruptions, those interruptions down to the impact on human beings in the labour force
The alternate was what was promoted by the Federal Government of Morrison (pre vaccine) to “learn to live alongside the virus to grow the economy” and to “get out from under the doona” etc etc
We have learnt the lesson of putting the economy in front of people because the result sees what we see today
Try buying a new car and see what the wait time is
I am one who has always subscribed to the view that those trying to play politics with a WHO described Pandemic would be universally condemned for doing so
It is interesting the ABC program on Freddie Mercury, aids and the media persecution of Mercury based on his sexuality
And the culture war which saw people questioned on their sexuality – and then attacked
Even Thatcher was critical of the persecution based on a “killer plague and God killing degenerates”
The only person I have known who was so accused was Don Dunstan (by the Murdoch media in their daily attacks akin to what Andrews is enduring) but I also knew both Gretel during the time of her life and Adele
So I really did not know
And it was none of my business
Human beings, hey?
So you never judge others by self
There are some crude and rude people out there, and they hide behind religion (or what they call religion)
We really have not progressed as a race
We hope we leave better opportunities to our succeeding generations – but we are not
Expat says:
Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 9:26 pm
Urgh. We need some actual numbers to talk about.
______________________________
Or we could just make stuff up like Neil Wotsisface on 3Aw or a couple of our more regular posters.
I’m glad to see the LNP takeover by strange pentecostals is finally getting a run in the MSM.
Spoke to our local Freedom upper house candidate the other day – a total cooker, well embedded in the pentecostal lifestyle.
Blimey they are a sad lot over at the DLP facebook page.
https://www.facebook.com/democraticlabourDLP/
The Facebook pages are fascinating:
The Liberals, all about Dan Andrews.
Nothing on policy.
Nothing promoting GUY.
https://www.facebook.com/liberalvictoria/
Labor site, volunteers, policy and Dan Andrew.
https://www.facebook.com/VictorianLabor/
The DLP. Bitter.
https://www.facebook.com/democraticlabourDLP/
frednk
Looks like they’ll have Bernie Finn in next parliament unless something extraordinary happens in Western Metro. I wonder if he’ll defy their recent history and remain in their party for his four year term.
I feel this is the last GVT election so I try not to get too fussed about the upper house cross bench.
I doubt Catherine Cumming will be elected – she’s bound to be angry about that !
Their switch to the ballot paper name ‘Labour-DLP’ in 2018 was possibly designed to attract some voters who thought they were voting Labor. But maybe it put off some traditional DLP voters who saw the word Labour and didn’t look any further. Their upper house vote went down so it doesn’t seem like it was a resounding success.
I think they’ve been deregistered federally because they didn’t have 1500 members.
Prediction.. liberals hold a Max of one country seat.
Nats and libs win roughly
10 seats between them
Green seats unchanged two to three. Independents win 3 to 5 seats including
South west coast
The remainder of roughly 70 seats are held by.labor
The 2pp.be same as 2018 with a slight swing to Labor
Greens will have more than that – they’ll keep the three they’ve already got, and add Richmond and probably Northcote.
Labor won’t have 70 either…
SW Coast I’m very interested to see how Altmann goes.
Has there ever been a State/ Federal state election where there has been no weekly opinion polls during the election campaign in recent times
Must be very bad news for the Lib/nats
The corrupt media , hiding that the propaganda against Labor/Andrews has failed big time by not releasing opinion polling
Well, it was fairly quiet in 2018 until about 2 days before the election. Then there were a few that showed Labor with a clear lead (including the Nat Parks one that looked way too generous, but turned out to be correct) and the media tried to play them as a narrowing anyway.
My kids were watching a show recently where they were showing an experiment about social media. People were shown two humorous photos from instagram, and asked which they preferred. They would alternate between one having millions of likes, and the other only a few dozen, and randomly flip which was which. Without fail, the random people on the street would pick the one with the millions of likes as being funnier, as we all have an inbuilt tendency to follow the herd to the popular pick.
Political strategists and their PR unit that masquerades as independent media here are fully aware of the above – polling that shows one side being likely to win, will help that side to win. So it’s entirely possible that they might keep unfavourable data under wraps, and just publish vague rumours via 3AW instead.
Of course, we have no proof of that. It could also just be they don’t have the budget they used to.
“Scott says:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 6:38 am
Has there ever been a State/ Federal state election where there has been no weekly opinion polls during the election campaign in recent times
Must be very bad news for the Lib/nats
The corrupt media , hiding that the propaganda against Labor/Andrews has failed big time by not releasing opinion polling”…
Yep, can you imagine spoiling the “hung parliament” delusion of ALL the media? And here I also include the allegedly Progressive The Guardian, that’s also fascinated with the “hung parliament” fantasy.
I just can’t wait to see their reaction on election night, as they are confronted with the “disappointing” reality of a smashing ALP victory….. Well, they will likely just acknowledge the result and move on to some far more important issue with the speed of light, such as some “injury among the socceroos that will require a change of tactic from Arnold… etc., etc., blah, blah…. please look over there, not to the failure of our propaganda”.
In my view, the two least De-Moronised electorates in the country are in the ACT and Victoria (with other states fast catching up). Less Voter Moronism leads to less influence of the media propaganda on elections… In my view, that’s extremely good news for Australian Democracy, given that in this country the level of media diversity is ridiculously low.
“Mick Quinlivan says:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 5:41 am
Prediction.. liberals hold a Max of one country seat.
Nats and libs win roughly
10 seats between them
Green seats unchanged two to three. Independents win 3 to 5 seats including
South west coast
The remainder of roughly 70 seats are held by.labor
The 2pp.be same as 2018 with a slight swing to Labor”
I won’t officially predict anything beyond a solid Labor win, which to me is quite clear. But looking at the pendulum for this election, it won’t take a huge swing to the ALP for the Liberals to potentially match the Nationals or even fall slightly below, in terms of seats. Which could have serious effects on who is going to be the leader of the opposition in the next term: A Liberal or a Nationals?
Who would have ever thought the country party would be the bigger and saner member of the Liberal/ National coalition.
That’s getting a bit ahead of ourselves though – I think realistically the Libs will pick up a few seats, especially ones like Nepean or Pakenham, maybe Bass. Probably Hawthorn too unless the Teal gets past them. Although I reckon they’ll probably lose Kew and Caulfield to the indies.
And with the federal election planting the seed in the voters’ minds that independents are a viable option, we shouldn’t discount someone like a Garra or Birchall pulling it off too.
Overall, my money’s on a Labor majority but maybe not by all too many seats. There’ll be a swing away from Labor, 2018 really looks like a high tide mark.
“Here we go again says:
Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 10:09 pm
… For the last near 3 years the citizens of the World have lived with the threat of a WHO described Pandemic
Fortunately a vaccine was developed
But the Pandemic still has an impact, people losing their lives
And an impact economically due to supply chain interruptions, those interruptions down to the impact on human beings in the labour force
The alternate was what was promoted by the Federal Government of Morrison (pre vaccine) to “learn to live alongside the virus to grow the economy” and to “get out from under the doona” etc etc
We have learnt the lesson of putting the economy in front of people because the result sees what we see today”
… and the People were indeed mentally energised by the pandemic, to start analysing the political reality with a far more critical mind. So, the “let it rip” Morrison’s government was defeated at the federal election, and so will be the Victorian Coalition at this state election. Still, for me one of the most important tests of the People’s awareness about the Liberal failure during the pandemic, will be next year election in NSW. The “let it rip” Perrottet Coalition government should be defeated too… I can’t wait to see what happens there.
“Expat says:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 7:57 am
…Overall, my money’s on a Labor majority but maybe not by all too many seats. There’ll be a swing away from Labor, 2018 really looks like a high tide mark.”
If there is a Labor victory, but with a swing against them, wait for 100% of the media to focus on the “swing against” and on those who “benefitted from the swing”… Let’s gloss over the fact that the ALP was returned, and that Andrews is still the Premier….
Oh, that’s a given. Monday’s HS front page will be all about the savage swing against Dan if he merely wins 54-46.
Also take it as read that they’ll be cherry-picking seats in the outer burbs with an above-average swing to dissect etc.
Media
Back in the day, when interviewed by media and where your opinion favoured the political bias of media, the cut away shot inserted for public consumption following the interview showed the interviewer nodding in appreciation
This was a deliberate act by media to frame public acceptance
in printed media there is the power of headlines, recognising few actually read an article (so switching off after the first 3 words)
The Age have a puff piece informing they retain the lead as the biggest Victorian masthead in the Country (behind a paywall!!)
The appended photograph of a front page has the headline “Push to woo cross bench on pandemic legislation”
Noting the Liberal Party and their media frame this election as a “pandemic election”, that allegedly Andrews is standing because he wants to distance his reputation from pandemic legislation and the Liberal Party will immediately dismantle pandemic legislation
The front page The Age choose is not by accident
It is to frame the narrative it prosecutes
Akin to inserting after the interview an insert of a journalist nodding in appreciation
All deliberate
And the ABC, unfortunately, is no better with its personality presenters
Unfortunately the Southern Metro Region has a very high rate of postal voting, meaning many of the marginals in that area may not be decided on election night.
Caulfield 19.9% 1/88
Bentleigh 16.6% 6/88
Ashwood 16.3% 7/88
Oakleigh 15.9% 9/88
Albert Park 15.5% 10/88
Brighton 15.3% 14/88
Malvern 15.2% 15/88
Prahran 14.9% 18/88
Sandringham 14.9% 20/88
Kew 14.6% 21/88
Hawthorn 13.7% 28/88
In terms of votes 2pp.alp.liberal will be very similar 2018 and 2022.. I think Labor may get 59% 2pp as they are travelling slightly better. Despite the sky after dark attempts..Labor will do.better in country areas will win.Morwell.may win polwarth.. may win Naccaran . Will retain Ripon
Will retain Bass.
All demographic change in country areas us favouring Labor.massively.
The plus or minus 2 % seats are roughly where the election will be fought out and labor will gain a good harvest there. Libs struggling in Caulfield.Hawthorn most of the Mornington peninsula..I think they will.
Keep most of their urban seats with a 5% margin..eg Malvern Bulleen.Mornington
Re greens.. boundary.changes make Pharan. Difficult but not impossible. The Lydia Thorpe matter will.create difficulties in winning extra
Seats. I pick roughly the status quo.. nothing extra
Excuse my misspelling
Prahan
Are there any opinions about the coverage of the Victorian election by the “Frank” and “Fearless” from “your” ABC ?
Has the “my ABC” been so stacked with so many “frankless” and ” fearful” types that as an organization it has become a “vassal” for the dominant media oligarchy?
Is “your ABC” now just a laminated reproduction of the once mighty “voice of the people” and “balanced news” ?
Should “Insiders” be now called “elitist schmuckers”?
How long before a government attempts to put a “paywall” on “my ABC”?
As at the end of the week having just finished, most Victorian voters are still unaware of how their legislative council is elected !
Towards the end of the week having just finished, most Victorian voters are only being made aware of the “real identity” of the types representing themselves as “legitimate” candidates!
In the run-up to this week’s election, voters are presented with “a dogs breakfast” outlook for the their legislative council.
At least one in five of those elected in the upper house in each area will have achieved their position with the help of an “illusionist”.
Just wondering!
Total prepoll votes up to and including Saturday 19 November 817,896
Total registered voters 4,394,465
Percentage of votes already cast 18.6%
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/voting/electoral-statistics/state-election-statistics
goll says:
Monday, November 21, 2022 at 9:05 am
Are there any opinions about the coverage of the Victorian election by the “Frank” and “Fearless” from “your” ABC ?
At least one in five of those elected in the upper house in each area will have achieved their position with the help of an “illusionist”.
Just wondering!
___________
You are blaming the ABC for the Legislative Council instead of the Labor Party which has had many opportunities to reform it?
Classic Gollism.
No-one is forced to vote above the line. Not sure why people so wound up about GTVing