Miscellaneous horse race commentary and developments from the past two days of the campaign, much of it involving the Victorian Electoral Commission:
• The Herald Sun reports Liberal sources saying Daniel Andrews’ personal ratings have “tanked” over the past fortnight, with his disapproval rating at 51%. Forty-four per cent wanted a Labor win, but 38% of Labor voters said they would favour a minority government. It should be noted that any Liberal polling would be limited to its target seats. The report also says the Greens rate themselves “a strong chance to win Northcote and Pascoe Vale”, the latter of which would be a turn-up. Conversely, Labor has “become more optimistic about its chances in Melton”, which it fears losing to independent Ian Birchall.
• John Ferguson of The Australian says views within the Labor camp about the number of seats it stands to lose range from “as little as seven or eight” to “as many as nineteen”, with anything more than ten being sufficient to cost the government its majority. A “senior ALP figure” said it was “hard to see the Liberal Party winning more than nine or ten seats” and “they could also lose a few”.
• The Liberal Party has accused the Victorian Electoral Commission of “serious, deliberate and unprecedented” interference in the election after its referral of potential breaches of donation laws to the Independent Broad-based Commission Against Corruption. The issue relates to alleged attempts by Matthew Guy’s chief-of-staff, Mitch Catlin, to encourage a businessman to make donations to his private business, which prompted Catlin’s resignation in August. The VEC says it has not received satisfactory responses to its invitations to the principals to respond to questions, although Guy told journalists on Thursday he had not had “any direct contact” with the commission. Electoral commissioner Warwick Gately presumably had this statement in mind when he said yesterday that the VEC had “not received the full co-operation from those connected to its investigation … despite public statements to the contrary”.
• The Liberals have referred Labor and preference negotiator Glenn Druery to IBAC over the video published in the Herald Sun on Thursday in which Druery discussed preference deals during a video conference, with MPs David Southwick and Louise Staley accusing Labor of “vote-rigging” over its rather tenuous connections to Druery’s activities. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports that Michael Piastrino, who is running for the Liberals against Daniel Andrews in Mulgrave, conducted a press conference yesterday alongside member of the anti-lockdown Freedom Party in which he called for the election to be “postponed and for the state government to go into administration … given the election can no longer be deemed valid”.
• Teal independents have succeeded in having the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal overturn the Victorian Electoral Commission’s determination that voters were likely to be misled by how-to-vote cards showing only one box numbered, with accompanying wording advising voters to number the remaining boxes in order of preference. If voters had indeed been misled, the effect would have been the opposite of what was plainly intended.
• A Lonergan Research poll for the Victorian National Parks Association, concerned mostly with public attitudes to national parks and conservation reserves, has breakdowns of voting intention by upper house region if you stick with it until the end, although the field work period was October 28 to November 6.
I have a theory that we are getting PR by default. The Nationals, Greens and Teals all in highly segregated areas. Liberals and Labor fighting over the rest.
BY segregated I mean highly defined and distinct areas.
The Nationals have always drawn their votes from ‘highly segregated’ areas.
They’re the antithesis of ‘national’.
Oliver Sutton says:
Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 6:53 pm
The Nationals have always drawn their votes from ‘highly segregated’ areas.
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Yes but now the Greens and Teals can claim the same.
Not sure if this Murdoch desperation has been posted yet….
Kennett is Guy’s mentor and role model, Guy having worked in Kennett’s Office.
Explains a lot doesn’t it.
Both are consumed by ego and anger.
The one positive from the election being in the past is that there will no longer be right wing attack material being placed in our letter box, all attacking Andrews from making children gender neutral to Andrews killing unborn children to Andrews putting injections in people’s arms to kill them (before you get to “lockdowns” all being Andrew’s fault – and here was me thinking the Pandemic was all China’s fault!!!).
Elections really are a time for these RWNJ’s and their conspiracy theories to get an airing.
And Australia is very much uglier for it.
The trouble with the likes of Trump and those who seek to replicate him is that they give incentive to idiots.
And society will pay a price – noting it has already.
What polls can be expected next week?
The likely candidates would be:
* Roy Morgan
* Resolve / The Age
* Freshwater / AFR
* Newspoll / The Australia
* Essential / The Guardian
* RedBridge / The Herald Sun
nath, at the last federal election, the Nationals scored 10 Reps seats from 3.6% of the primary vote.
The Greens scored 4 seats from 12.3% of the primary votes.
A helluva long way from proportional representation.
Some speculation as to why Chris Dore, former editor of the SmearStralian has been removed. Health reasons is the offical lie.
Rumours are that whilst attending the Murdoch knees up in the US, Dore was hauled over the coals by Rupert for letting Labor win the Federal election.
What hope is there for Sam Weir, editor of the HeraldSun? Points for trying – but the Murdoch shafting awaits.
Oliver Sutton says:
A helluva long way from proportional representation.
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Of course, but for the Greens at least, an improving situation. And for the Teals, a good start.
But I was thinking more of Victoria. Let’s see.
I think with a somewhat tired and polarising government and a limp, out of touch opposition we’re likely going to see in Victoria something like the Federal election but with even larger declines in the major party vote. The biggest uncertainty is how many crossbenchers a record third party vote will actually produce? A Labor majority seems likely but wouldn’t be surprised to see them reduced to minority govt status.
Sitting at a bar in Melbourne about to catch up with some mates, thinking about that mp at flinders. But I can only think that people are mostly over this omnidirectional rage. The zeitgeist is faltering. Has this imported fear/rage tactic ever worked here in vic? For the many years that I’ve lived in Melbourne, while that fringe exists everywhere, in Victoria it has been consistently repudiated.
The only thing I can see is that social media has drawn in international exposure, so more coverage. People seek this stuff out. But it doesn’t change the ground game. People generally don’t like being associated with nutters. You might think you’ve got lots of support, but… do you? This whole rage thing persists because they think that they’re part of a community. They feed off each other. The big problem that cookers have, is when they go outside, it isn’t the same community that they live with, and more importantly, vote with.
William Bowe @ #149 Saturday, November 19th, 2022 – 6:41 pm
William As opposed to the existing Socialist Party that are fielding candidates in this election?
Were opening the books to those ready to sign up as candidates for the Liberal party at the 2022 Victorian election.
Note 1:We are an equal opportunity party and will take anybody as long as they are breathing.
Note 2:If we eventually have to dis-endorse you we guarantee you will be in the best position to be elected and you will be able to join one of our associated entities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryvljjccqL8
Laughtong: this oughta explain it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WboggjN_G-4
Bird of paradox says:
Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 7:25 pm
Laughtong: this oughta explain it.
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But what led to the split between the PFJ and the JPF. Was it simply doctrine or did it involve an argument over peanuts? We may never know.
Two currently in the Hun – Dutton gets a mention (although he’s not been invited to participate in the Liberal campaign) and Credlin regurgitates the usual.
And yes I have been left at home for a few days by myself. 🙂
Credlin says that about Andrews but he wasn’t secretly taking other ministerial jobs.
Credlin would love the teals to be way less successful, it would play right into her fantasies that the LNP aren’t dead.
It’s not the same referrendum so comparing Teal results state and federal will be a huge mistake IMO as Federally we had a Govt not keen on any climate action and at state level we don’t. Dan may not be as green as some would want but he is a long way off Morrison and co.
Doubledummy says:
It’s not the same referrendum so comparing Teal results state and federal will be a huge mistake IMO as Federally we had a Govt not keen on any climate action and at state level we don’t.
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I think the Teals are more than just about differences about climate change. These were the seats that backed marriage equality the most, that were probably most uncomfortable with harshness towards refugees, that think about reconciliation.
There is plenty of conservatism in the Vic Liberal Party for the Teals to use to cleave off some seats.
Anybody who still believes that state elections don’t have any bearing on other states or Federally when it comes down to the Liberal party is living in la la land.
The whole point of the brand name is so people can recognize it, so why would they vote against in federal election and then vote for the same party state wise when basically they are one and the same.
I would not be at all surprised by the time the NSW election is over there will be a Liberal moderate party called perhaps the Teal party.
Not only is the corrupt media opinion polls are missing in action, also what missing in this election campaign
The Victorian Liberal party haven’t introduce the liberal party faithful
John Howard
Credlin: “Covid uncovered Daniel Andrews as a control-freak, who dispensed with cabinet, parliament and his own Labor caucus”
Ha! That’s the Credlin who, as Abbott’s Cabinet Secretary, convened a Cabinet meeting with no agenda papers.
“William Bowe says:
Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 6:25 pm
I’m not predicting anything.”
Thanks William, all clear now.
“laughtong says:
Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 7:18 pm
William Bowe @ #149 Saturday, November 19th, 2022 – 6:41 pm
I will predict this: at the 2026 election there will be a separate party called Socialists of Victoria.
William As opposed to the existing Socialist Party that are fielding candidates in this election?”
Yep, they are officially called the “Victorian Socialists”
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/candidates-and-parties/registered-political-parties/currently-registered-parties
The Teals will probably become to the Liberals what the Greens are to the ALP but the Liberals will be fooling themselves if they think they can win without winning the Teal leaning seats or not getting preferences from the Teal.
@nath I think there is absolutely room for teh Teals to take swathes of votes and eventually a seat off of the Libs. I am just not expecting the surge of votes for them as Federally there were a lot of ALP voters who saw this as a chance to kick the Libs as their ALP favoured candidate had zero chance, so voting Teal was a real option to affect change and a message.
Here in the state election, seats like Brighton (31.46% ALP Primary in 2018) , Caulfield (32.24%) Hawthorn (32.21%) and Mornington (34.28%) all have reasonably high primary votes and as such there is not likely to be many ALP voters voting teal. The interesting thing is if/when they (Teals) beat the Greens for 4th spot and then where those green preferences flow to.
In Brighton it’s very interesting as IF the alp are still there with 3 parties and Greens have gone, then there should be enough for a Lib v ALP match-up and who knows after that.
It’s not necessarily likely but it does leave teh ALp a 15-20% chance at victory, they just need a little epick-up in primary votes as I believe the greens will poll well after the redistribution.
Even though I am in Caulfield electorate I have not done anywhere near as much tea leaf reading as I am more invested in the Brighton vote.
Hey, Peta:
“Federal cabinet met on Monday night without a single formal cabinet submission to consider.”
“A breakdown in proper cabinet processes was one of the charges against Abbott when he successfully stared down a leadership spill motion in February.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/aug/17/abbotts-small-government-cabinet-meets-without-single-formal-submission-to-debate
This up-coming Victorian election has changed complexion, certainly on PB, if nowhere else.
I’m sticking with the available polling.
The LNP are “on the nose” in almost every state and territory, Morrison and Co. having wiped out spectacularly at the last federal election and seemingly fading fast. Victoria is an unlikely place to expect to see some change.
The Greens have taken great heart from their successes in Brisbane, having had no Teals to tantalise the disillusioned and have not shown any indication of breaking free of the” plateau of minor party”.
The system used in Victoria to elect the Legislative Council is outside the “void of ignorance” within which the majority of voters live.
The whispers, manipulators, influencers and the media most aware of the general confusion regarding the Legislative council will have the most success.
It will be most surprising to see the LNP having much to celebrate on the night of the 26th.
Dan and Labor will be satisfied with the outcome.
The Greens will overly excited with some quirky gains and a couple of independents may get lucky.
The fact is most Victorian voters are happy with ‘their lot’ considering everything and will give Labor another stint.
I’ll be most unhappy to be wrong!
Doubledummy says:
Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 8:21 pm
@nath I think there is absolutely room for teh Teals to take swathes of votes and eventually a seat off of the Libs.
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I wonder why they didn’t have someone stand for Malvern, and by the same notion, have a candidate for Higgins at the Federal election. They may have come through the middle there.
nath
Because they’re not a party.
goll @ #165 Saturday, November 19th, 2022 – 8:29 pm
Sounds about right.
well they could have had a ‘like minded friend’ run.
zoomster, what’s your stance on upper house reform?
William, with my understanding of the relationship between Socialist Alternative (at least the Victorian Socialists component in its Victorian branch) and the Victorian branch of Socialist Alliance, I doubt the Alliance will re-ally with the Alternative, if that’s what you may be suggesting. A permanent stake has been driven through both when the Alternative refused to grow closer with the Alliance, when Alliance & its associated other groups pursued cooperation with Alternative outside elections. Although Alternative (the major continuing component of VS) has a different story. They are currently running against one another in at least one district. They’re not exactly on each other’s Christmas card lists. Maybe you know something that I don’t?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/19/victorian-liberal-leader-dumps-candidate-linked-to-conservative-church-a-week-out-from-state-election
nath
there is no ‘they’ unless there’s some kind of over arching organisation — such as you get with a party.
As Gertrude Stein might say: “There is no ‘they’ there.”
zoomster says:
Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 8:57 pm
nath
there is no ‘they’ unless there’s some kind of over arching organisation — such as you get with a party.
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They are a group of vivacious women holding similar views, wearing similar colors. Sounds like a party to me.
There’s a real generational divide between VS and the Alliance from what I gather, VS is mostly made up of young folk whereas the Alliance, at least in Victoria, has a rapidly ageing membership that has mostly been subsumed by the Greens at this point.
There’s a party on? With vivacious women?
I’ll bring a bottle …
Emilius: I’m 99% sure William was making a Monty Python joke. 😉
There are two socialist candidates in Pascoe Vale: the official VS one, and Sue Bolton as an independent (Soc Alliance isn’t registered in Vic). Considering VS are running a fairly full-on campaign, and Bolton is a local councillor who’s run in state and federal elections a few times before, it’ll be interesting to see how much they eat each other’s vote. Wills had the same thing federally: Bolton got 3.4% for the Alliance, a VS candidate got 3.0%. Back in 2019 Bolton was the VS candidate there, and got 4.5%.
Article about VS from before the 2018 Vic election:
https://overland.org.au/2018/02/will-the-victorian-socialists-shake-up-victorias-election-year/
Back then both Alliance and Alternative were under the VS banner. Splitters!
@nath, I understand why a teal didn’t run in Higgins. Part of it is perfect teal turf (Malvern, Armadale, Toorak) but unlike Goldstein & Kooyong, Higgins had too many areas that were either really solid Greens turf (Windsor, Prahran and to a lesser extent South Yarra) and some strong Labor areas like Cargenie and Glenhuntly, so it would have been harder for a teal to make the 2CP, and as the result showed Labor were competitive on their own.
I think Caulfield is like a mini version of that (with Balaclava & St Kilda East being the Windsor/Prahran) and probably has the same issue for a teal. To a lesser extent Brighton too, due to Elwood being in the seat (whereas it wasn’t in Goldstein).
However, I’m with you and can’t understand why a teal IND didn’t target Malvern. It’s basically just all the small “l” Liberal suburbs from Higgins with none of the Greens or Labor suburbs.
I think a teal IND would have beaten Michael O’Brien. Would have been the best target seat along with Kew.
At the end of todays pre-polling, St Albans has by far the highest percentage of enrollment having cast their vote already, 27.2%. They have the second highest amount of votes cast (12,648) just behind Sydenham (12,714), but with 6,652 less voters enrolled. St Albans has the third lowest amount of voters in the state (ahead of Mill Park and Sunbury). Eildon has the lowest amount of votes cast with 5,828 (11.6%)
Speaking of Pascoe Vale, Kevin Bonham recently posted this analysis:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/11/modelling-seat-of-pascoe-vale.html
Yeah, that showed up on the last page. Well worth a repost.
Left-wing voters in Pascoe Vale are pretty spoilt for choice: apart from Labor and the Greens, there’s two different socialists, Reason, and the AJP. One the right there’s just the Libs and Family Fist.
The factors:
1. Victoria is now a strong Labor state.
2. The Government is 8 years old, so it’s a bit boring and stale.
3. However, while the Government has had some scandals/incompetencies, they have not been disastrous, hence it is still seen as adequately competent.
3. It’s leader is disliked overall, but not at disastrous levels……. yet.
4. The Oppositi0n is seen as being unready for Government.
Where does this lead you? I think it’s a surly return of the Government, and then potentially a sustained decline like the Bligh Government, NSW Labor’s last term etc.
“sprocket_says:
Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 6:57 pm
Not sure if this Murdoch desperation has been posted yet….”
Ha, ha… yes, but the problem with Murdoch is that he is not listening to Victorians, who are saying that: “We do want a statue of Daniel Andrews cast in bronze!!”*
——————-
*Remember how the idea of the statue was originally from Jeff Kennett, as he was absolutely certain to make it to the minimum number of consecutive terms as premier (3) to “win” a bronze image of himself, to be displayed in public foreva…. But, ha, ha, ha, he didn’t make it (thank you, Steve Bracks)!…. 🙂
“Historyintime says:
Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 10:21 pm
… Where does this lead you? I think it’s a surly return of the Government, and then potentially a sustained decline like the Bligh Government, NSW Labor’s last term etc.”
Yes, the government will be returned, but the potential decline (if there is any evidence of it via the results of this election and then the subsequent opinion polls during the third term) can be averted with a change of leader before the next state election.
“Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 8:18 pm
The Teals will probably become to the Liberals what the Greens are to the ALP but the Liberals will be fooling themselves if they think they can win without winning the Teal leaning seats or not getting preferences from the Teal.”
The situation for the Liberals is even worse. They already can hardly win without the Nationals, imagine needing a third member of the Coalition that stands to the relative “left” of the Liberal party. How happily would the Teals live under the same roof with the hard-right section of the Liberal party plus the conservative Nationals?
I wouldn’t rule out the 2026 election being better for Labor than 2022.
Firstly, Dan is no doubt a drag on their support in some regions (but Guy is not a viable alternative), but a fresh face taking Labor to the election in 2026 might be a positive.
I know it wasn’t the case for Brumby in 2010, but Bracks remained very popular and isn’t comparable to post-pandemic Andrews in that way.
Secondly, the pandemic itself – and the IBAC/corruption controversies – will be more of a distant memory. There won’t be the anti-lockdown, pandemic related anger. Also, a Labor win next week will give them 4 years to try to clean up a few things dragging them down and get some “integrity” runs on the board, but for all we know the Liberals might get caught up in more scandals. Especially if they continue down the Trump path.
Thirdly, if the Liberals do indeed get decimated in the inner city areas (and don’t regain Hawthorn) they might have even less talent than now, be in even worse shape, and/or have even more influence from the religious right.
Now, the main case for the opposite, along with the government being 12 years old by then, is federal drag which is primarily what brought down Labor in 2010, and is not a factor this year as federal Labor are still in a honeymoon period. So if anything the Lib brand is more dragged by Dutton and the recent Morrison government right now. That probably won’t be the case in 2026.
But who knows what 2026 will look like in that regard. For all we know the Libs – federal and state – may have torn themselves apart even more.
The main question I think is do we see either Victoria getting more conservative, or the Liberals getting more progressive, over the next 4 years? If not, and the Coalition continue marching to the right, then it stands to reason that Labor’s position could strengthen with a fresh face and lot of the current issues behind them in 4 years’ time.
Not to mention that large projects like Metro Tunnel and Westgate Tunnel will be complete and open.
The other thing too is that if (it’s a big “if”) Labor are reduced to a minority next week, but the Liberals are still far from government, then it means the 2022-26 term may end up being the cyclic “interruption” to Labor dominance (just not by the Libs) and in 2026 people flock back to Labor again if they have a better chance at a majority than the Liberals.
Not saying it will happen because a 12 year old government + federal drag is hard to overcome, but a Labor bounce in 4 years (regardless of whether this election result is the more likely majority or less likely minority) certainly isn’t impossible given the unique nature of the pandemic-related issues this time around, and the Libs continuously moving in the opposite direction to the state.