Victorian election minus one week

Campaign chatter continues to point to a weaker result for Labor than published polling has thus far indicated, as the Victorian Electoral Commission increasingly finds itself drawn into the political fray.

Miscellaneous horse race commentary and developments from the past two days of the campaign, much of it involving the Victorian Electoral Commission:

• The Herald Sun reports Liberal sources saying Daniel Andrews’ personal ratings have “tanked” over the past fortnight, with his disapproval rating at 51%. Forty-four per cent wanted a Labor win, but 38% of Labor voters said they would favour a minority government. It should be noted that any Liberal polling would be limited to its target seats. The report also says the Greens rate themselves “a strong chance to win Northcote and Pascoe Vale”, the latter of which would be a turn-up. Conversely, Labor has “become more optimistic about its chances in Melton”, which it fears losing to independent Ian Birchall.

• John Ferguson of The Australian says views within the Labor camp about the number of seats it stands to lose range from “as little as seven or eight” to “as many as nineteen”, with anything more than ten being sufficient to cost the government its majority. A “senior ALP figure” said it was “hard to see the Liberal Party winning more than nine or ten seats” and “they could also lose a few”.

• The Liberal Party has accused the Victorian Electoral Commission of “serious, deliberate and unprecedented” interference in the election after its referral of potential breaches of donation laws to the Independent Broad-based Commission Against Corruption. The issue relates to alleged attempts by Matthew Guy’s chief-of-staff, Mitch Catlin, to encourage a businessman to make donations to his private business, which prompted Catlin’s resignation in August. The VEC says it has not received satisfactory responses to its invitations to the principals to respond to questions, although Guy told journalists on Thursday he had not had “any direct contact” with the commission. Electoral commissioner Warwick Gately presumably had this statement in mind when he said yesterday that the VEC had “not received the full co-operation from those connected to its investigation … despite public statements to the contrary”.

• The Liberals have referred Labor and preference negotiator Glenn Druery to IBAC over the video published in the Herald Sun on Thursday in which Druery discussed preference deals during a video conference, with MPs David Southwick and Louise Staley accusing Labor of “vote-rigging” over its rather tenuous connections to Druery’s activities. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports that Michael Piastrino, who is running for the Liberals against Daniel Andrews in Mulgrave, conducted a press conference yesterday alongside member of the anti-lockdown Freedom Party in which he called for the election to be “postponed and for the state government to go into administration … given the election can no longer be deemed valid”.

• Teal independents have succeeded in having the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal overturn the Victorian Electoral Commission’s determination that voters were likely to be misled by how-to-vote cards showing only one box numbered, with accompanying wording advising voters to number the remaining boxes in order of preference. If voters had indeed been misled, the effect would have been the opposite of what was plainly intended.

• A Lonergan Research poll for the Victorian National Parks Association, concerned mostly with public attitudes to national parks and conservation reserves, has breakdowns of voting intention by upper house region if you stick with it until the end, although the field work period was October 28 to November 6.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

566 comments on “Victorian election minus one week”

Comments Page 3 of 12
1 2 3 4 … 12

  2. It says on Ali Cupper’s website that Mildura Passenger Rail will be a bargaining chip in the event of a hung parliament. Given that the town of Donald, which transferred from Ripon to Mildura in the redistribution, is on the main Mildura railway line, that might play in her favour this election.

  3. Does Renee Heath’s disendorsement change the coalition ticket in East Vic, or is she stuck there? Currently that’s Heath (Lib) 1, Bath (Nat) 2, Burgess (Lib) 3. Considering spot 3 is no sure thing (the Shooters won it in 2014 and 2018), that potentially leaves the Libs with nothing.

  4. No, the tickets have been submitted. She will be elected and prob sit as an independent (or maybe join a likeminded party.)

  5. She’s stuck there!

    Barring the Liberal voters out there banding together for an enormous BTL campaign that skips over her, she’s in.

    Break time in parliament can feature pray-away-the-gay and exorcisms of people in heavy metal T-Shirts.

    Probably make friends with Bernie Finn.

  7. I view the lack of polling data in Victoria as evidence of how bad it is for the coalition. If there was anything in any polling the mastheads have done, whether costello or murdoch media, that would in any way show the coalition in a slightly brighter light, it would be front page stuff. If they’re not even doing any polling, in normal times, that would be a very big thing. If the polling is bad, they just won’t post it, because it’s just easier to spread cooker nonsense, and anti-ALP expose’s.

  8. Moira Deeming, Renee Heath, countless more nutters. I speak here as a Greens NSW campaign organiser who has continually had to undergo political risk assessment processes for our candidates’ campaigns – does the Liberal Party even have a probity process? What the hell is going on?

    They have literally pre-emptively lost an entire upper house MP due to a failure to conduct a well-positioned, powerful probity assessment process. This person, Ms Heath, is at the top of their ticket for Christ’s sake.

  11. You are not alone Mr Bowe (re Jeremy) but as I newbie here I was attempting to not engage in discussing them but I do find the deliberate misrepresentation of other peoples posts then when called on, the playing the victim card rather tedius to wade through.

    I welcome all political viewpoints just not one who seems to be trolling more than helping to inform a discussion.

  13. This all feels very US midterms election-y.

    Most of what I’ve seen is the right talking about how likely it is the ALP will lose a lot of ground without credible sources to back this up.

    Very reminiscent of what the right did in the US midterms (flood polls showing the GOP leading in battleground states by decent margins) – which, we all know how that went.

    Time will tell.

  15. William Bowe says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 3:19 pm
    I’ve had more than enough of Jeremy.
    —
    Sorry William, but that bridge was crossed for many weeks ago.

  16. Well then it sounds like Jeremy’s gunna make a motza with all his bets he’s had .
    Sounds like he’s on a winner.

    Now if only I’d listened to him………..NAH.

  20. A Herald Sun headline, found while looking for something else (google “Catherine Cumming” and click the “news” tab):

    “Dan’s secret statement in ditching North Face jacket”

    *deep sigh*

    Obviously it’s paywalled. I assume it’s some kinda lunatic conspiracy theory, like the steps he fell down?

  21. Funnily enough Bird, when I put in Catherine Cumming into google and selected the news tab, four of the top five links were to Poll Bludger.

  22. William,
    I think we can all agree that some fresh, new (reputable) polling would help. But alas, I think this paucity of polls is the new normal when it comes to state elections generally.

  24. Bird of paradox says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 4:40 pm
    A Herald Sun headline, found while looking for something else (google “Catherine Cumming” and click the “news” tab):

    “Dan’s secret statement in ditching North Face jacket”

    *deep sigh*

    Obviously it’s paywalled. I assume it’s some kinda lunatic conspiracy theory, like the steps he fell down?

    I think I read somewhere that he has been wearing a jacket promoting his policy of public ownership of the SEC.

    However I don’t live in Victoria so a local resident could probably clarify this is the case.

  26. citizen @ #124 Saturday, November 19th, 2022 – 5:01 pm

    Bird of paradox says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 4:40 pm
    A Herald Sun headline, found while looking for something else (google “Catherine Cumming” and click the “news” tab):

    “Dan’s secret statement in ditching North Face jacket”

    *deep sigh*

    Obviously it’s paywalled. I assume it’s some kinda lunatic conspiracy theory, like the steps he fell down?

    I think I read somewhere that he has been wearing a jacket promoting his policy of public ownership of the SEC.

    However I don’t live in Victoria so a local resident could probably clarify this is the case.

    Yes that is the story. I am in Vic and due to OH have access to the Herald Sun
    The Premier donned a new jacket this week, emblazoned with the SEC logo, turning himself into a walking billboard for plans to revive the publicly owned State Electricity Commission.

    Labor is also selling T-shirts carrying the same logo for $50 a piece to raise extra campaign funding.

    However concerns have been raised about use of the logo that is still used by the SEC which, despite its privatisation in the 1990s, still exists as a public body.

    Under Victorian law, public sector bodies must ensure any information, material or message published is in the public interest.

  30. “He treats the pubic as fodder”.

    If “fodder” means something cows or sheep eat, that’s… certainly an interesting mental image.

  34. Love it when the LNP start calling Labor a socialist party.
    Desperate slur.
    Some of us might wish there was an element of truth in it.
    Viewed from afar I’m also puzzled by the Melbourne fascination with Kennett.
    Strikes me as a thoroughly nasty man who thrives on division.

  35. Let the record show

    Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    Interesting to note The Vic Liberals are sending preferences in the upper house in Western Metro to Catherine Cumming in 10th spot behind the DLP and UAP. Labor are at 62nd out of 62.

  37. “Rossmcg says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 5:53 pm
    Love it when the LNP start calling Labor a socialist party.”

    … and then the Liberals preference the Greens above the ALP, and the Greens are more socialist than the ALP…. Of course, it all “makes sense”, does it?

  38. Is Dan’s sudden gifts to the live music scene an indication the Greens are polling very well?

    The footage of him attending a club with entourage was excruciatingly awkward.

  39. “somethinglikethat says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 5:19 pm
    Jeff being Totally Normal.”…

    He looks exceedingly desperate and in full panic mode to me…
    What’s next? … “Dan will invite Putin to annex Victoria to Russia”?

  40. “William Bowe says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 4:05 pm
    For the record, I think Jeremy is less likely to be wrong about the election result than the Labor optimists. It’s a shame there aren’t any grown-ups here to make the case.”

    So, are you predicting a hung parliament, William? If so, obviously that’s not grounded on the available opinion polls. We grown-ups only have opinion polls to speculate about the results of this election, I am afraid. Oh, some others like to quote betting odds as well, how are those going for the hungparliamentists?

  41. Emilius: that’s a good read. The tl;dr version: Pascoe Vale has an estimated ALP/Grn margin of about 12.5% (compare to 20% in Preston, where they made the top two).

    On federal figures (from Wills), the Labor margin in Pascoe Vale would be roughly 7% – about 5% better for the Greens than Kevin’s estimate for 2018. With the Libs swapping their HTV (he reckons that makes about 6% of difference), that would make it marginal enough to be interesting.

  42. I don’t know much about Mexican politics, but I do know that Lobster Guy is unelectable*

    * I also thought that Tony Abbott was unelectable

  45. William Bowe says:
    Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 4:05 pm

    For the record, I think Jeremy is less likely to be wrong about the election result than the Labor optimists. It’s a shame there aren’t any grown-ups here to make the case.
    —————————–
    Jeremy’s predictions were possible but could be more possible in 2026 because many of the seats he talked about are on big margins and Victoria doesn’t swing by as much as we might see in states like Queensland.

  46. MB: “Victoria doesn’t swing by as much as we might see in states like Queensland.”

    One of those truisms that’s true until it isn’t.

  48. Sprocket:

    The Victorian Greens seem less influenced by the Trotskyists than the NSW Chapter. Is this a fair assumption?

    Possibly. Considering the Victorian Socialists exist and seem to have their shit together more than most socialist parties / fringe splinter groups, plenty of the hard left would be there instead of the Greens.

  50. I agree with the fact that Victorian Labor should not be so arrogant as to assume the win. There have been elections in the past where the unexpected happened. NSW 1991, Victoria 1999, Queensland 2015 are examples.

    Just it’s really hard to figure out what’s real and what isn’t in this election. For one thing there is a large amount of people that hate Daniel Andrews so much that they would cheer if he was assassinated. I get that most people don’t want that, but the cookers have been given so much media attention to the point that it almost seems like a legitimate political movement in the right wing media that it seems like a legitimate policy to have Daniel Andrews murdered. I don’t feel comfortable with that.

Comments Page 3 of 12
1 2 3 4 … 12

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *