Freshwater Strategy: 56-44 to Labor in Victoria

Another Victorian state election poll fails to corroborate Newspoll’s finding of a narrowing gap. Also: the Poll Bludger election guide expands to cover the Legislative Council.

The Financial Review has a poll from Freshwater Strategy, which made its debut for the paper three weeks ago with a New South Wales poll, that credits Labor with a lead of 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34%, Greens 14% and others 15%. Daniel Andrews is on 39% approval and 48% disapproval, Matthew Guy is at 32% aod 48%, and Andrews leads 40% to 28% as preferred premier. We are also told that Jacinta Allan’s rating is neutral, Tim Pallas is at minus 12, the Labor brand is at plus 10 and the Liberals are on minus six. “Close to 60 per cent of Victorians” including 39% of Labor voters, believe they were locked down too long.The highest ranked issue by far was cost of living, followed by “health and social care” and “managing the Victorian economy”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.


• The Poll Bludger state election guide now comprehensively covers the Legislative Council, including an overview and the usual thorough guides to each of the eight regions. The upper house contest happens to be in the news today following Adem Somyurek’s announcement that he will seek re-election in South-Eastern Metropolitan as the candidate of the Democratic Labour Party. Somyurek’s, whose DLP colleagues include Bernie Finn in Western Metropolitan, tells the Herald-Sun he will represent the “sensible centre of Victorian politics”.

• “Prominent Melbourne art collector” Andrew King says he will pay the $350 nomination fees of the first 50 people who come forward to run against Daniel Andrews in Mulgrave. King’s theory is that this will divert voters from Andrews “by reducing his first preference vote, diverting votes away from him, and increasing the likelihood of informal votes”. On what remains of Twitter, Antony Green relates that the total number of candidates could exceed 600, compared with an already over-stuffed 507 in 2018, boosted by Family First’s determination to run candidates in all 88 seats.

• In a Twitter thread, Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group argued that the anti-lockdown parties, including Angry Victorians and the Freedom Party together with the United Australia Party, complicated Liberal ambitions in seats like Melton as they like were competing for the same demographic turf of asset-owning white voters with trade qualifications and incomes of over $100,000 a year. Labor’s voters in such areas tended to be newer arrivals with lower incomes and mortgages, many of them migrants.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

298 thoughts on “Freshwater Strategy: 56-44 to Labor in Victoria”

  1. And just to add, it used to be said that when you played bottom sides their lack of quality dragged you down to their level, so it was always a scrap

    This appears the case in Victoria, a very poor Opposition attempting to drag politics down to their level

    So in the gutter

  2. wondering does any one know weather sam mcquestin in tasmania not great that vicctorian liberals cant find sumone that lives in victoria to run there campaign

  3. Justin. Thanks, loved your post regarding the lower house party candidates. Your post is very telling that Reason party is looking to get an upper house member in Northern Metropolitan(Re-elected Patten hopefully), Victorian socialists in Western or Northern Metropolitan and a couple of other minor parties targeting the upper house. Thanks again for your post. l hope Fiona Patten keeps her seat, in my opinion the best legislator in current parliament. She is an amazing woman and Victorians would be worse off if she not re-elected. I do hope her health has improved. I’m a huge fan of Fiona. Done an amazing job last eight years. Seems to me a lot of minor parties targeting Western Metropolitan. l hope Greens preference Fiona in Northern Metropolitan as they should have a surplus. Any independent with a chance should have nominated by now. Snake Man in Melton was a little late. Justin, great post. Keep it up.

  4. Here we go again, agree that both Labor and Coalition play gutter politics. Vote independent and Greens. Disgraceful politics by both major parties. Who is worse Labor or Liberals???

  5. Has the corrupt media lost the fight again , After all the propaganda attacks on Labor/Andrews its quiet on the media’s opinion polling front

  6. Jeremy

    The article about the Indian vote was discussed when it was first published. From memory, it was dismissed as a beat up, the majority of the ‘Indian vote’ being parked with Labor fairly firmly.

  7. Scott says:
    Friday, November 11, 2022 at 6:41 am
    Has the corrupt media lost the fight again , After all the propaganda attacks on Labor/Andrews its quiet on the media’s opinion polling front

    Not the media, but Jeff Kennett last night tweeted this absolute gem.

  8. somethinglikethat says:
    Friday, November 11, 2022 at 7:59 am

    Not the media, but Jeff Kennett last night tweeted this absolute gem.



  9. somethinglikethat

    It shows how desperate the Lib/nats are , surprised jeff Kennett is not calling for the delay of Morrison’s multi ministries review which is to be released on 25th November to be delayed

  10. Zoomster, any idea what percentage of the Indian demographic can actually vote? 5000 extra Indians might have moved into Melton district but if only 10% can vote we aren’t talking huge numbers that are “parked” with Labor. Melton going to Dr Birchall methinks. And on a side note, the Indians know Melton has been neglected last eight years and are not happy. Sure the MOE on the 15 Indians l quizzed that live in electorate is huge. And only 3 could vote.

  11. Again, Jeremy, all these issues were done to death on Pollbludger when the article actually came out.

    If you scroll back, you’ll find the answers you’re looking for.

    In the meantime, try and use more up to date sources.

  12. I’ve been robo-polled twice in the last few days.

    The first was obviously a push-poll for Family First. It started with the usual ‘who do you intend to vote for’ questions, but finished with “Are you aware that Family first has a policy of reversing the Labor government’s something something something without parents’ consent something something?” followed by “Are you aware that Family First aims to something something abortion something something?”.

    The second sounded much more legit, with questions about whether the premier and opposition leader have been doing a good job, whether Victoria is headed in the right direction and so on. Unfortunately the pollster didn’t have a name I recognised, so I wasn’t able to commit it to memory.

  13. This is a gem coming from the person who has consistently engaged in character assassination of Dan Andrews.

    Forget the ‘anger and mudslinging’. Where is the contest of ideas?
    Annika Smethurst
    State Political Editor

    In just a few days voters will begin casting their ballots to decide who will sit in the state’s 60th parliament.

    Victoria may have emerged from pandemic hibernation, but as a consequence of policy decisions made by governments, we now face unprecedented challenges that need to be fixed, from our ailing healthcare system to the state’s virus-swollen debt.

  14. somethinglikethat says:
    Friday, November 11, 2022 at 7:59 am
    Not the media, but Jeff Kennett last night tweeted this absolute gem.

    Mr K should look at the result of the US mid-terms. Trump/MAGA attempts to use the courts to prevent the “wrong” people voting and overturn election results seem to have received a cold reception from US voters.

  15. That’s rich from Annika Smethurst.

    She has basically ignored every single Labor policy announcement to instead focus on creating “questions” around perceived corruption, and now she asks “Where’s the contest of ideas”?

    On another note, my wife received a polling call last night too. Unfortunately she hung up on it because she was eating dinner. I wanted to know who it was.

  16. I assume Monday at the latest, because pre-poll opens so “volunteers” (for the Liberal Party that usually means paid backpackers because they can’t find real volunteers) will be handing them out.

    It’s most likely to occur on the weekend.

    HTV Cards generally depict a picture of the ballot paper, and ballots will be drawn this afternoon. So I imagine HTV cards will start being finalised and printed this afternoon and probably circulated online on the weekend, on candidates’ facebook pages etc.

  17. Smethurst is a strong candidate to take over from Leigh Sales: write complete shit, and then complain about being bullied when they come under genuine criticism for previously published shit.

  18. Jeremy

    The draw of the ballot is taking place at 1 pm today.

    Once that’s done, parties can start finalising preference deals (which has to be done in a hurry, as prepoll opens on Monday, and HTVs will need to be printed and delivered by then).

  19. Re: How to Vote Hander Outers
    Up here on the Coast as the older Tories have died out – the LNP has been paying Backpackers etc to hand out their HTF cards.
    Unfortunately, for them, with the NSW State Election legislated to be held on the last saturday of march, every four years, they now have two serious weather problems.
    1. If it is wet – no one shows, or if they do only long enough to be marked off and paid.
    2. If it is a good sunny, warm beach day – they usually shoot off to the beach by midday.
    This year for the Federal Election, probably due to financial constraints, there were only two, LNP, HTF people at the large polling booth which my wife and I regularly attend.

  20. “take an injection in court” conjures interesting images.

    That may take over from “I always look at peoples’ shoes, you can tell a lot about people from their shoes” as my go-to silly Kennettism.

  21. My polling place in May didn’t even have anybody handing out Liberal HTV cards, first time I’ve ever seen them not even attend a polling place at all.

    They did put some posters up the night before but just had no volunteers / canvassers on the day.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the same occurred in two weeks time.

  22. MAWBM, what a nasty little person you must be. For those interested(Dr John), plenty on this site who believe Labor are certainties for Majority, TAB are offering 1.25. Put your houses on it please. That should make minority Labor ease and I’ll get better odds.

  23. geez jeremy can you shut the fuck up about people putting the house and any other money they may have on labor , just so you might get better odds.

    by all means talk politics but shut the fuck about betting

  24. have you ever thought that there might be some people on this that have a gambling problem
    and you just keep blathering on a about betting .

    stop and think about it for a minute.

  25. It’s clear that Jeremy has an obsession – perhaps a problematic one – with gambling. Incessant posting about betting odds on a polling website is getting tiresome and is adding nothing of value to a discussion about psephology.

    On another note, how do we find out the results of the ballot draw? Are they published anywhere?

  26. Well if Roma Britnell keeps her seat in South-West Coast I suspect she will be thanking Jim Doukas and James Purcell who after polling a combined 25% of the vote last time both enter super super late. Britnell won on 32.4% primary last time after those two and Michael Neoh (not returning) who had 9% were in the race, and ended up beating the ALP candidate (who is returning) by 2.3% in TCP. They’ve just given Roma a chance to repeat that result. I can not imagine Carol Altmann having announced months ago and running a strong campaign would be happy with this.

  27. As a very occasional poster (and like Jeremy, a Footscray resident) I appreciate a different perspective, but am also uncomfortable with the constant betting talk. And I say that as someone who won about 5k getting on Trump early.

    On Footscray yeah the Greens will do better but their candidate seems interchangeable with most of their other offerings. I doubt the fact that their last guy was an idiot had that much impact. Greens voters like their party enough to not care that much. Disclaimer: I’m voting 1 Green for the first time in my life. Greens should make the 2pp cut, but Labor will still win huge in the Scray.

  28. Trent it can still be very rewarding when one’s side of politics wins and with a ‘bet on the side’ adding cream (on top) to the joyous result.
    Can’t help you with ballot draw only horse draws.
    Off for a longish walk and maybe some spitting (only upside of hay fever) at Newbury billboards.

  29. jerimy musnt of realized that the liberals in nsw are campaigning against the pockies as there down in the poles jerimys poasts are very anoying at least he does not clog up any other threads i dont think the liberals have much in comon with greens

  30. Confirmed 119 independent candidates in the lower house. An increase on the 102 from 2018, even with all the minor and micro parties getting in on the fun. 20 of the 23 parties that are contesting upper house have at least 1 candidate in the lower house too. The minimum number of candidates in any lower house seat is 6: Bentleigh, Berwick, Croydon, Eltham, Ivanhoe, Malvern, Mill Park, Prahran, Thomastown, and Warrandyte. Point Cook and Werribee have 15, Melton and Mulgrave have 14. Mulgrave has 7 independents.

  31. Polls and betting markets are very similar beasts. So many on this site ridicule my belief of a minority Labor government being a good chance. If you going to ridicule, go make some money(all l am doing is sharing the juicy odds with you). Call me loony, yapping dog, loser and plenty of other derogatory comments. Labor luvvies on this site are incapable of individual thought and seem to enjoy the pack mentality of bullying anyone who doesn’t conform to ALP policy. Having said that, this site does have some magnificent posters. Justin, please keep up the updates with the draws of candidates. SW Coast, WOW, what a development. Fascinating election.

  32. Aaron newton, this thread Victorian polls. l believe a thread is available for you to post on NSW polls. I am a Victorian Aaron, that is why l post on this site. Aaron, please refrain from posting on this site unless it’s in relation to Victorian polls or politics. Thankyou.

  33. edwardo, my apologies, will try to turn down the rhetoric on betting markets. Footscray the best(except for our local candidate). Glad you’re voting Green, make Footscray marginal. Labor must be a little worried as they discussing the Truck problem and throwing money at it this election. Greens must be a little confident as they have campaigned in electorate so maybe closer than you think. If you enjoy a craft beer try Bar Josephine’s on Barkly street on a Wednesday when prices are cheap on some of the kegs they want emptied. Always happy to oblige with emptying of their kegs. Should we not mention alcohol on this site in case someone has a drinking problem?

  34. Betting markets are next to useless for forecasting election results for the simple reason that most seats don’t change and the ones that do are usually predictable.

  35. Mexicanbeemer. What a ridiculous statement. So polls are next to useless also for the same reasons? People with knowledge like to make money. If a pollster has knowledge they would use that knowledge to make $$$?

  36. Mexicanbeemer. You need to understand how bookies operate. Dr John probably the best to help you. Dr John, would you have the patience to help Mexicanbeemer???

  37. Jeremy says:
    Friday, November 11, 2022 at 2:19 pm

    Mexicanbeemer. What a ridiculous statement. So polls are next to useless also for the same reasons? People with knowledge like to make money. If a pollster has knowledge they would use that knowledge to make $$$?
    Polling is more useful because it tells you what the potential swing is going to be and that helps to predict which way the marginal seats will go but most seats are predictable by simply looking at that seat’s history and its demographics and local issues.

  38. Betting markets are trailing indicators that feed off other things. They’re also cheap publicity for the betting sites. Can’t think of too many elections where the betting markets have been significantly better than polling when taking into account MoE.

    Further, various actors put bets on to influence the odds and paint a narrative. (not just in politics). Fwiw I’d be surprised if independents won Melton or any of the western seats, Footus is several elections away from being marginal Lab/Grn but the Greens will be happier with this election than the last. My first Vic election as a Victorian, having voted twice federally in a more interesting seat in elections that were more dramatic. Oh well they can’t all be exciting.

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