The Financial Review has a poll from Freshwater Strategy, which made its debut for the paper three weeks ago with a New South Wales poll, that credits Labor with a lead of 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34%, Greens 14% and others 15%. Daniel Andrews is on 39% approval and 48% disapproval, Matthew Guy is at 32% aod 48%, and Andrews leads 40% to 28% as preferred premier. We are also told that Jacinta Allan’s rating is neutral, Tim Pallas is at minus 12, the Labor brand is at plus 10 and the Liberals are on minus six. “Close to 60 per cent of Victorians” including 39% of Labor voters, believe they were locked down too long.The highest ranked issue by far was cost of living, followed by “health and social care” and “managing the Victorian economy”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.
Also:
• The Poll Bludger state election guide now comprehensively covers the Legislative Council, including an overview and the usual thorough guides to each of the eight regions. The upper house contest happens to be in the news today following Adem Somyurek’s announcement that he will seek re-election in South-Eastern Metropolitan as the candidate of the Democratic Labour Party. Somyurek’s, whose DLP colleagues include Bernie Finn in Western Metropolitan, tells the Herald-Sun he will represent the “sensible centre of Victorian politics”.
• “Prominent Melbourne art collector” Andrew King says he will pay the $350 nomination fees of the first 50 people who come forward to run against Daniel Andrews in Mulgrave. King’s theory is that this will divert voters from Andrews “by reducing his first preference vote, diverting votes away from him, and increasing the likelihood of informal votes”. On what remains of Twitter, Antony Green relates that the total number of candidates could exceed 600, compared with an already over-stuffed 507 in 2018, boosted by Family First’s determination to run candidates in all 88 seats.
• In a Twitter thread, Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group argued that the anti-lockdown parties, including Angry Victorians and the Freedom Party together with the United Australia Party, complicated Liberal ambitions in seats like Melton as they like were competing for the same demographic turf of asset-owning white voters with trade qualifications and incomes of over $100,000 a year. Labor’s voters in such areas tended to be newer arrivals with lower incomes and mortgages, many of them migrants.
Fascinating election. Libs are unelectable. Or are they since Labor don’t deserve to be re-elected. Fascinating.
Methinks Greens and independents will surge in representation. Enjoy 26th November everyone.
No comment on Jeremy’s predictions. I’ll just be looking at the scoreboard when it’s all done and dusted. Nothing else matters.
Gettysburg1863. You are absolutely correct. 26th November going to be fascinating. Enjoy the night and the proceeding three weeks. Hopefully the Victorian public gets it correct and vote independent and Green. Enjoy Gettysburg1863.
Victoria, you obviously a Setka fan. What a horrible, horrible person he is. Can’t believe anyone would, you included would regurgitate his love of the Labor party. Do you understand the damage he has done to the union movement. Allegedly he is a violent person, especially against his estranged wife. Victoria, do you condone his actions???
Setka is what is wrong with the Labor party. Corruption, standover tactics,
rorting, looking after your mates, big business, unions, developers, etc etc. How could anyone vote Labor with this person dictating pre selection candidates. Vote against Luba in Koroit. Surely Victoria, l expect better from you. Vale Jane Garrett. Industrial left is deplorable. As is the socialist left. As is all ALP. Marginally better than the Libs and Nats.
Vote Green and independents.
In news outside of cooker corner here, it really is interesting going back through the years of Victorian state by-elections, I’m just looking up information for the upper house ones to put onto wikipedia.
It seems that both Dick Hamer of the Liberals and John Brumby of Labor were elected as leaders when they were in the upper house, but quickly moved to the lower house afterward, Hamer contesting and winning Kew and Brumby contesting and winning Broadmeadows (interestingly within months of being elected to the upper house himself, replacing the retiring Bill Landeryou).
I know that there’s nothing in the constitution that says that the leader of a party has to be in the lower house, but it seems like a political norm for Victoria. I’m wondering if things go a certain way on election day, the Liberals might be compelled to do something similar? Trouble is, they don’t have many safe seats to choose from. If things turn out that way, it’ll most probably be to try and parachute them into Rowville, since Kim Wells has been there for 30 years.
had to take jerimy serously wonder what he thinks of the liberals suport the cerupt somyurek suprised they could not find any thing criminal against him noticed this jerimy does not poast on any other poasts maybi some one just to anoy labor poasters
jerimy i think albanese ezxbelled setca from the labor party and setca has caused andrews damage buy sighting with the liberals at the anti lock down rallies he is no fan of labor or andrews cleaned up the labor party and got rid of the branch stackers but the heraldif
Aaron Newton. l find Libs worse than Labor. Both corrupt. That’s why l find Labor supporters worse than Liberals because they find excuses for ALP. They are luvvies that see ALP do no wrong while Liberals are evil. They will fight for the corrupt ALP and the henchmen like Setka. Libs worse, l agree but ALP not much better. Both deserve to be last and second last on all ballots. Vote Green and independent. All on this site that fight for Labors cause are hypocritical………
Aaron, your thoughts?
Setka, leader of industrial left. Still a powerful figure in ALP. Just ask Luba from RTBU union. She preselected. Mmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Hypocrites on this site see Labor good, Liberal bad. Both bad Aaron. That’s why you should put em both last even behind the cookers.
Aaron, your thoughts on Shorten????
Doesn’t give a shit about anyone except himself. Think Albo already has at least one knife in his back. Sorry moderator. This Victorian thread. Shorten does represent a Victorian electorate though.
ALP bad, very very bad. As are the liberals/nats.
Vote independent and Greens.
Can you be more economical with your posting please, Jeremy.
Jeremy
Where have I made mention of Setka?
Maybe Mr Bowe, maybe not. Hope you keep all posters to the high standards that you expect of me. I will try though, and l thank you for your blog. Surely others than ALP can post on this site.
Nationals, Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews, DLP, and Angry Victorians are the only parties left to submit to VEC, along with some independents. SFF did add an extra candidate today so more may still come.
In terms of candidates locked in to the VEC, this is how many lower house candidates are standing in the 11 electorates of each region, noting that Western Metro is missing DLP and regions missing Nationals
Eastern Victoria 77, NE Metro 66, Northern Metro 85, Northern Victoria 71, SE Metro 79, Southern Metro 71, Western Metro 92, Western Victoria 77
Scanning these sites whilst watching TV (She who must be obeyed controlling the remote!!) and to prove males can actually do 2 thinks at the one time, it strikes me the proliferation of comment by certain who must live on this site
And obviously they can not count to 99
So never change hands
Here we go again, she who must be obeyed. Is that a derogatory description of your wife/partner? Disgraceful.
Sorry moderator, l will try harder.
Will not post for the remainder of evening.
Kirsdarke: “I know that there’s nothing in the constitution that says that the leader of a party has to be in the lower house …”
Senator John Gorton became PM after Harold Holt went for his last swim.
@Oliver Sutton
Yes, but quickly after that, John Gorton became the Member for Higgins and effectively served his PM’ship mostly in the Lower House.
I’m curious if there’ll be a situation that challenges that notion, that an Upper House MP of Liberal or Labor becomes leader and they hold the position of “You know what? I think I’ll stay here.”
Vic,
Setka is a despicable individual, as you know. and posted appropriately.I don’t think you have ever criticised the look of his face, unlike your personal post on Kennett.
Jeremy
We rely on polls here because we know that just because I don’t like a particular individual/party and my friends and everyone I speak to doesn’t like that person/political party is more a reflection of the social circles we move in than broad community feeling.
The polls don’t support any of your contentions.
Saying the same thing over and over again doesn’t make it real.
I don’t know about specific seats, but the Greens seem to have given up on the Greens.
I haven’t seen their obligatory ‘we’re going to win 10 seats’ media announcement, and there seem to be a large number of ‘name on the ballot’ candidates (many with exactly the same pitch, going by the Greens website).
Of course, this may be part of a master plan where they focus on a few winnable seats, but the silence is still strange – we at least were hearing about the possibility of them picking up Queensland seats prior to the Federal election.
Much the same with Teals – candidates seem to have been announced late, aren’t producing the same kind of vibe, and certainly aren’t contesting as many seats.
I’m expecting a very boring election night.
we go on this forum to have serious politicial discution not repetaative troling any way luba is replacing marlin kairouz preveously in the same faction think it was a deal so shewould stop fighting the take over of preselections setca is exbelled from labori hope nostradarmis is not back with a fake acount fraya stark
On Kennett as a “visionary”, in my book a visionary is not merely someone who rams through major changes based on ideological prejudice rather than evidence, with little or no consultation and who holds those with a different view in contempt. His taunts about Brumby “sleeping with boys” tells you all you need to know about Kennett’s character. Visionaries have the ability to bring others with them and that requires emotional intelligence. Kennett’s lack of emotional intelligence was largely his undoing. His gratuitous sledging of Russell Savage for example, meant that when the only way he could have survived in minority government post 1999 was with the support of the independents, that prospect was dead on arrival.
As most would be aware, there are some very serious allegations that have also been made about the conduct of senior people at the Hawthorn Football Club. These are being investigated. Now i’m not saying those claims are true or not (I really don’t know), but Kennett (as club president) immediately started to cast doubt on the individuals who made these claims publicly.
That’s very, very poor judgement from a senior leader, particularly from someone who had a long involvement with Beyond Blue and supporting people with mental illness. And is the latest in a long line of examples of him being anything but visionary.
Zoomster at 6.58 and 7.02 am,
Dead right, save I am expecting anything but a boring night on election night. Absolutely anything could happen on election night, from the ALP’s majority being pegged back a seat or two, to a complete liberal wipeout.
What won’t be happening, on current polling, is a minority government!
Carney, a Liberal shrill in the media, laments that the Liberals in Victoria have never recovered from losing Kennett as their Leader.
The real problem is that Victorians have not recovered from Kennett’s 2 terms in government.
And a “landslide” 3rd win if you believed media.
Except Victorians had had enough and the “landslide” win was actually a loss.
The initial headlines post election day changed by media as reality dawned – remember?
The Leader comes from those elected to the Lower House, and the Liberals have no-one capable including because they have no vision past branch stacking, name calling and attack.
They are truly an Opposition.
Here we go again says:
Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 7:51 am
It’s also rarely remembered that Kennett’s large win in 1992 occurred in the context of Victoria’s worst recession in many years, the collapse of Pyramid etc. And as I recall in 2PP terms the 1992 Liberal win was actually of the same order as their wins in most elections between 1958 and 1976.
Kennett had been opposition leader for ~ 10 years before he became Premier, with one interruption, and until the external environment made the defeat of the 10 year old ALP government all but inevitable, was widely regarded as a joke (who had lost multiple elections).
I do give him some credit for his persistence I guess. And I think Kennett’s example shows why writing off a party leader based on their struggles while in opposition can be mistaken and shortsighted. Exhibit A: Anthony Albanese
max @ #120 Wednesday, November 9th, 2022 – 8:05 am
Exhibit B: John Winston Howard
Back in the colonial period there was one premier in the Legislative Council. Remember that at the time, British prime ministers could still be Lords while the members of the Legislative Council were elected by those with property. Certainly it cannot be said that the practice of appointing Councillors to the premier’s office fell into abeyance because it was incompatible with the Westminster System – unless you are willing to stretch the meanings of words – because after Sladen failed, the British had the Earl of Beaconsfield, the third Marquess of Salisbury (until 1902 in one of his terms) and the fifth Earl of Rosebery in the top job. Frankly I would like to know more about this – Wikipedia mentions that “Sladen found himself in a hopeless situation, since he was a member of the upper house at a time when it was increasingly accepted that the leader of the government must come from the Assembly”, but what was the basis of this opinion? Was it based on analogy with the British parliament along with a reformist sentiment?
In fact, the fact that the Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Bill was brought through the House of Commons (by the minister for the colonies, of course) while the prime minister was sitting in the Other Place means that you can’t even say “the prime minister comes from the House of Representatives because we use the Westminster system”. Historically speaking, the rule really needs to be justified in its own right, rather than pawned out to people who didn’t follow it on the basis that they subsequently began to follow it. We identified our own problems with upper-house premiers that didn’t bother the British until years later. (Politically, of course, we can do whatever we want: and what the “Westminster system” does in Australia is constitutionalise certain uncodified rules, to take them out of the scope of controversy.)
Anyway, I don’t think either of the major parties would accept a premier from the upper house today. It would make the story of government based on lower house results harder to maintain, and begin a transition to a sort of Italian style dual responsibility (to both houses). They would argue that certain provisions of the constitution require the premier to be in the lower house defacto, because they require the supply/tax bills must start in the lower house, cannot be amended in the upper house, and cannot be vetoed by the upper house. This last restriction especially clearly prevents the upper house from holding the government to account. It is of course entirely debatable whether that means that the premier cannot come from the upper house. There’s clearly no explicit rule against it, and personally I’m sceptical of any argument that I should read between the lines like this. But I’m not making an argument that I have to buy; I’m reporting an argument that the lower house contender would try to sell. To appoint an upper house leader would be asking a bunch of people, many brand new, to do something that hasn’t been done in 150 years, facing off against the guy who just brought them into parliament and government. Guy just needs to convince them not to do what they aren’t really sure they want to do.
If the Liberals and Nationals accidentally win government after the election, Matt Guy will be the premier. To the extent that it is a disaster, they will pick someone else from their forty-five odd members. But it will probably not be outside of the range of normally bad government, comparable to the recent Morrison term. I would think we’re more likely to see someone leave their party and bring about a mid-term change of government rather than see an upper house premier.
Jeremysays:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 9:47 pm
Here we go again, she who must be obeyed. Is that a derogatory description of your wife/partner? Disgraceful.
Sorry moderator, l will try harder.
Will not post for the remainder of evening.
———————————
‘she who must be obeyed’ is not derogatory and is just an old phrase mostly used in a jocular manner between mates.
I owe the Freedom Party an apology. Yesterday I said I received a flyer from them in the electorate of Bayswater with “Vote Labor Last” in huge letters.
It wasn’t them. In fact, it was Knox Freedom Family, whoever the hell they are.
It also says, in smaller letters at the bottom, “Don’t forget a vote for Greens is a vote for Labor”
It also says, in smaller letters at the bottom, “Don’t forget a vote for Greens is a vote for Labor”
——
These sorts of slogans should actually be illegal as they are blatantly false and mislead voters about how the electoral system works.
Dr John @ #132 Wednesday, November 9th, 2022 – 9:22 am
SWMBO
The term originates from the H. Rider Haggard novel, “She” (first published 1886). The character Ayesha, known as She-who-must-be-obeyed, the Queen of Death, the White Goddess,of the lost city of Kôr who rules her kingdom with terror, She is the very image of the Femme Fatale. To disobey her or to scorn her is to earn & receive instantaneous death.
I try not to get distracted by things of a non-psephological nature, but I’m about to make an exception.
The term “She Who Must Be Obeyed” was made famous by the movie version of the novel Grime mentions which came out in (I couldn’t be bothered looking it up, but I think…) the 1930s, and more famous again by the remake in the 1960s starring Ursula Andress.
But the use of the term to describe one’s wife comes from Rumpole Of The Bailey. An absolute classic and very funny.
Benny Hill was funny in the 70’s. Not so today. I could post phrases that were funny generation’s ago, not so today.
Fair point, Jeremy. But I still don’t think anyone could reasonably construe a man referring to his wife as She Who Must Be Obeyed as offensive, even by today’s standards.
Edit: And just for the record, I never thought Benny Hill was funny. Not that he was offensive, just boring.
@ EightES
With all due regard that this is a blog of a psephological nature , what differentiates it from others is that PB is a community, with differing opinions but capable of dealing with strikingly personal experiences such as illness, loss and suffering, along with a myriad of topics ranging from the weather to haiku to history to just plain anecdotes about life. Your reference to the phrase ” she who must be obeyed” is of interest to many posters by enriching their knowledge and appreciation of all things linguistic.
All power to those posters who engage in interests other than politics here, and thanks to William whose efforts to create and sustain this site are highly appreciated, and valued.
PS . Please show your appreciation by supporting this site with donations.
I know she’s got some real competition, but is Georgie Crozier the most ineffective member of the opposition?
Amusing video embedded in this tweet. FYI, i’m not SquizzSTK.
https://twitter.com/SquizzSTK/status/1590117710926864384
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/jeers-cheers-euthanasia-and-ibac-four-key-points-from-marginal-melton-debate-20221108-p5bwdh.html?btis
The mistake the Liberals made was not having a clean out after Kennett’s loss. There are still some remnants of the Kennett government in Parliament – they should have been replaced years ago.
‘She who must be obeyed’ is a line that Rumpole from Rumpole of the Bailey used when referring to his wife.
Jeremy reminds me of a jack russell , yap yap yap.
I wonder how yappy he will be when Dan is returned comfortably .
hope his little head doesn’t explode..
https://rationalemagazine.com/index.php/2022/11/08/raised-in-her-fathers-church/
In Rationale magazine, Si Gladman writes about a blog that details the experiences of former members of City Builders Church – connected to a Liberal candidate – & allegations of the church’s support for the fundamentalist dominionist ideology.
EightES says:
Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 11:18 am
Edit: And just for the record, I never thought Benny Hill was funny. Not that he was offensive, just boring.
————————————-
I once had a partner that was related to Benny.
Benny would occasionally turn up in Melbourne.
He was wacky and extremely parsimonious, eg., just ate bake beans and straight out of can and travelled around on the tram (disguise of course)
somethinglikethat @ #140 Wednesday, November 9th, 2022 – 11:55 am
Perhaps Ms Crozier is angling for the leader vacancy after this election,a feat her Dad Digby missed out on?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/there-is-no-greens-liberal-deal-greens-to-preference-labor-in-every-seat-20221109-p5bwrs.html?btis
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/there-is-no-greens-liberal-deal-greens-to-preference-labor-in-every-seat-20221109-p5bwrs.html?btis
I don’t even know how that is news, or why it even needs to be clarified. The idea that there’s somehow some sort of “deal” between the Liberals and Greens is raised at every election and has absolutely no substance to it whatsoever.
The Greens would never preference the Liberals over Labor, and would face a huge backlash from their own base if they ever even considered the idea.
Whether the Liberals may or may not decide to preference the Greens over Labor is entirely their own strategic decision independent of what the Greens do, but some will always try to spin that into a “deal”.
Dr John: “I once had a partner that was related to Benny.”
And a niece of Benny Hill’s sidekick, Jackie Wright, is a senior Australian academic.