Polls: federal and WA leaders, budget response, foreign policy (open thread)

Familiar results on the budget and federal politics generally, plus a finding that Mark McGowan continues to reign supreme in Western Australia.

Fair bit of polling doing the rounds this week, as is generally the case in the wake of a budget:

• The Age/Herald had further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on Tuesday, including ratings for the two leaders, which had 57% rating Anthony Albanese’s performance as very good or good compared with 28% for poor or very poor, with Peter Dutton respectively at 29% and 41%. The poll also found 40% supported allowing multi-employer bargaining, with 24% opposed; 26% supported mandatory multi-employer bargaining, with 32% opposed; and an even 29% favoured higher wages at the cost of higher prices and vice-versa.

• This fortnight’s Essential Research survey features the monthly prime ministerial ratings, which now involves directing respondents to give Anthony Albanese a rating from zero to ten. Forty-five per cent gave him between seven and ten, down one on last month; 28% gave him from four to six, down three; and 20% gave him zero to three, up three. Questions on the budget turned up one finding missed by the others: 45% said they had paid it little or no attention, around ten points up on the last three budgets, while 55% said a little or a lot, around ten points down. Fifty-two per cent expect economic conditions to worsen over the next twelve months, up twelve since June, while 24% expect them to improve, down eight. Respondents were asked to pick first and second most important contributors to energy price increases, which had excessive profits and efforts to fight climate change leading the field, international circumstances and a worn-out energy network somewhat lower, and too many restrictions on exploration well behind. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 1058.

• Roy Morgan’s regular weekly video has included primary votes from its latest federal poll, conducted from October 24 (the day before the budget) to October 30, rather than just two-party preferred as per its usual form. This shows Labor on 38.5% (down half on the previous week), the Coalition on 37% (up one-and-a-half), the Greens on 12% (up one), independents on 6% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (down one-and-a-half). Labor led 55.5-44.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54.5-45.5.

• The quarterly-or-so True Issues series from JWS Research is a “special release” on the budget, as opposed to its usual focus on issue salience. It finds 14% of respondents saying the budget would be good or very good for them personally compared with 36% for average and 31% for poor or very poor; for the national economic impact, the respective numbers were 20%, 38% and 25%. However, respondents provided highly positive responses when asked about fifteen specific budget measures, all but one of which attracted a favourable response – the distinct exception being “axing” the low-and-middle income tax offset. The most popular spending measures involved health and the least popular (relatively speaking) involved parental leave and childcare subsidies.

• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of a YouGov poll it commissioned encompassing 1000 respondents in each of Australia, the United States and Japan, conducted from September 5 to 9. It found 44% of Australians would support responding with force if China invaded Taiwan, compared with 33% of Americans; 36% of Australians felt the US alliance made Australia more secure, with 58% of Americans holding a reciprocal view, up from 44% in December; 52% of Australians felt China was “mostly harmful” in Asia, with 20% rating it “mostly helpful”; an interestingly even 28% and 31% felt the same way about the United States, in dramatic contrast to results of 7% and 52% among Japanese respondents; 36% approved of the federal government’s handling of the relationship with China, with 19% disapproving; 52% supported the nuclear submarines plan, with 19% opposed; and “one in two”. Thirty-six per cent of Australians felt it would be good for the country if Joe Biden won another term compared with 19% for bad, while 50% felt a return of Donald Trump would be bad compared with 26% for good.

• In a rare bit of interesting polling news from Western Australia, a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian finds Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 70%, up two from March, and a disapproval rating of 18%, down seven, suggesting a consistency of popularity beyond any Australian politician I could name. David Honey, leader of what remains of the state parliamentary Liberal Party, had an approval rating of just 9%, with 31% disapproving, 40% neutral and 19% oblivious. The poll also found stage three tax cuts supported by 53% and opposed by 32%. It was conducted from October 19 to 21 from a sample of 637.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,198 comments on “Polls: federal and WA leaders, budget response, foreign policy (open thread)”

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  1. Thanks also Rossmcg and Barney in C, and TPOF:

    Must admit I am looking forward particularly to evidence to be given on Thursday (as per current schedule).

    Edit: added TPOF

  2. The Age 07/11
    Reference to $275 energy savings scrubbed from government website
    Labor has been dogged by the opposition over its promise to reduce power bills, particularly in light of news in the federal budget that power prices would rise.
    _____________________
    Lying pricks
    Get stuck into them bludgers.
    It must have been one of Howard’s non-core promises.

  4. Commissioner just asked about clientele

    Not likely to hire QC to defend themselves,. Vulnerable people.

    Witness agrees. He wasnt in DSS at time. Says he was disappointed at some things he has found.

  5. Taylormade @ #1103 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 2:01 pm

    The Age 07/11
    Reference to $275 energy savings scrubbed from government website
    Labor has been dogged by the opposition over its promise to reduce power bills, particularly in light of news in the federal budget that power prices would rise.
    _____________________
    Lying pricks
    …

    Yes, the Coalition hiding the wholesale price increase could be described that way.

  6. Rossmcg @ #1105 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 2:03 pm

    Commissioner just asked about clientele

    Not likely to hire QC to defend themselves,. Vulnerable people.

    Witness agrees. He wasnt in DSS at time. Says he was disappointed at some things he has found.

    This guy is involved in the internal Robodebt review in the Department and as such has no arse that needs covering.

  7. Dog’s Brunch.
    Agree, but possibly being a year or three younger, it was always “Aqualung” which was one of the primary soundtracks, to every surfing road trip – closely followed by Allman Bros, Boston, Lynyrd Skynyrd, Stones, Led Zep, Beach Boys (In Concert 73).
    I feel sorry for your professional woes, the workload was becoming unbearable, as a Primary Teacher when I undertook LSL prior to retiring in 2015.
    Miss my workplace comrades, miss my Federation comrades both at association & Council level and miss many of my students. Don’t miss the increasing and excessive administrative workloads.

  9. Barney

    Exactly.

    Refreshing honesty compared to some others .

    Edit: now belling cat on use of labour hire because of caps on staff limits

  15. Part 2.

    White states that, China and Russia are forcing America to accept the New World Order
    I may be missing something and be distracted by Russia getting its behind kicked in Ukraine and being forced to capitulate to President Erdogan of Turkey to allow grain shipments to flow again, Russia’s hegemony over Eurasia being challenged by China and China expressing an historical right to Siberia, plus China being forced to the sidelines as it needs to weigh up being sanctioned by the Western powers if it gives aid and comfort or supplies to Russia. America’s Assistant Treasury Secretary is a formidable economic foe and the architect of the Sanctions regime that is capable of turning the screws on China, as it is on Russia.

    Now I must mention this delusional statement by White:
    Once China and Russia defeat America, they are destined to be rivals. He believes that we are underestimating Russia again. Always a mistake. As their nuclear weapons =power He also dismisses NATO as a weak opponent of Russia. But on the other hand he states that Europe is formidable. Also that a couple of European states are also nuclear-weapons equipped. Both positions can’t be true at the same time. Not to mention that America, as a NATO partner, is also equipped with nuclear weapons that could challenge those of China and Russia.

    I’m also not particularly enamoured of White’s viewpoint of, by far and away the most likely outcome ‘when’ China wins the contest with America in the Western Pacific It’s the sort of fait accompli that White retailed that we were supposed to take as fact simply because of who he is and the position that he holds. When he has been wrong many times before.

    At least White is correct to observe that, China doesn’t threaten America in the Western Hemisphere wrt Europe. I don’t think Russia does either, despite Whit’s admonishment of Sweden and Finland for wanting to join NATO.

    Next White opines that, America doesn’t have much motive except nostalgia for dominating Asia and the Western Pacific. When I would say that they have plenty of motive to remain engaged in the region. A desire to keep the sea lanes open such that economic blockades and blackmail by China do not occur and to make sure that America’s interests in the region are not threatened by China, or Russia. This would apply to Micronesia, Melanesia, Polynesia, Guam, the Philippines, the Pacific Islands, New Zealand, Australia and even Singapore.

    White then seeks to deprecate America’s global leadership role as, being a global leader is a neat thing As his justification for the deprecation he says, the guys in the think tanks on Massachusetts Avenue say it because that’s what their living is based on I wouldn’t say it’s as cute as all that and anyway, says the guy who started his own think tank and bases his living on it.

    Next he says that Joe Biden is ‘America First’ with a different label, as if it’s a bad thing and also a thing which, if carried out to completion will allow China to rise while America falls. Whereas I believe that the moves by America are for the ultimate goal of taking economic power away from China, weakening it and strengthening America. Not to mention White’s supercilious comment about the President: Joe Biden in a very muddled way.

    Again White states matters as if they are foregone conclusions:
    If America starts a war in Asia it can’t win. The US doesn’t have the power (to win) due to changes in its wealth and power since World War 2. And, we’ve been taken by surprise to realise that American power will not last forever Dare I say, neither will China’s.

    On Australia, he makes these observations: we believe that America can defeat China. We believe if we talk tough we will deter China. he thinks it’s wrong that Australia should support the US in its aim to preserve order in the Western Pacific Whereas, I believe that Democracy V Autocracy says it’s the right thing to do and the actual people, not nattering think tank nabobs like White, want it to be.

    <It's not a war we'd win. The fait accompli again.

    Finally, I’d like to understand how, if we are going to live in an Asia dominated by China and India, we are to play them off against one another. One country, China, seems aggressively ambitious, and the other, India, is more conciliatory and willing to enter into advantageous arrangements to their and our country’s benefits. Hence I don’t agree with this assessment by White: We don’t need to fear that either of them are going to be territorially aggressive or to be terribly intrusive into our domestic political affairs. There is no evidence to sustain this proposition. !!! Has he no memory of the China Front Work Department and the Confucius Institutes in our country seeking to develop agents of influence that may gain access to our governments? Or the way that Chinese companies that are linked directly to the state sought to arrange 99 year leases of our critical infrastructure or to purchase large number of our companies. They don’t need to be ‘territorially aggressive’ if they can just buy their way in.

    Finally, we should learn to live with China’s power. Yes, but how we do it is important. No one is saying that China should not be a powerful nation. However, I believe it’s our duty as a Middle Power, to not let that power go to their heads. And yes, a multi polar order allows space for countries like us to make our own way. On that White and I are agreed.

  16. Barney in Cherating @ #1106 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 5:04 pm

    Taylormade @ #1103 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 2:01 pm

    The Age 07/11
    Reference to $275 energy savings scrubbed from government website
    Labor has been dogged by the opposition over its promise to reduce power bills, particularly in light of news in the federal budget that power prices would rise.
    _____________________
    Lying pricks
    …

    Yes, the Coalition hiding the wholesale price increase could be described that way.

    Plus the fact the government promised it by 2025 NOT 2022, 6 months after coming to power. 😐

  18. I just caught up with the news that Dutton tried out the National Service line today.
    Timing! Just as we are trying to shrink the army and grow the Navy and Air Force, which both need highly skilled professionals 🙂

    Apologies if others have already suggested it, but I immediately thought of the classic Yes Minister skit on it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahgjEjJkZks

    Ask not, “what can the Liberal Party do for you”.
    Ask rather, “what can your LOTO do for comedy writers”!

  20. Barney in Cherating says:
    Monday, November 7, 2022 at 5:12 pm
    Rossmcg @ #1112 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 2:10 pm

    Barney

    Exactly.

    Refreshing honesty compared to some others .
    He could probably write much of the final report.

    ______________________________________

    I could probably write much of the final report. The biggest surprises so far have been how aggressive the Department of (in)Human Services (or rather the top of that department) had been in avoiding obligations under the law (including the need to actually follow the law).

    With all due respect to Mr Birrer, though, it is a lot easier being forthright about prior management of the department when your minister is now Bill Shorten, who has been the driving force behind this Royal Commission, and you have arrived at the Department to clean up what was clearly a terrible mess at the upper management level (which in his evidence he indicated he had been told by a number of people).

  21. I missed this when it was announced.

    Good call.

    1h ago 16.08 AEDT

    Josh Butler
    More details on ban of political fundraisers at Parliament House

    We’ve got a little more info on the recently reported ban on political fundraisers inside Parliament House, instituted by the prime minister, Anthony Albanese.

    The Department of Parliamentary Services told a Senate estimates hearing that nine functions called up DPS to cancel their events when news of the ban was made public before budget week.

    DPS officials also said future bookings for events inside Parliament House will include a section where applicants must confirm their shindig isn’t a political fundraiser. If there’s any doubt, DPS will further investigate and ask applicants to sign a statutory declaration about the event.

    Rob Stefanic, secretary of the Department of Parliamentary Services, told the hearing that a final policy is currently being signed off by the presiding officers of the House and Senate.

    He said the definition of banned political events includes:

    … those organised by registered political parties and/or candidates for public office and/or any third party where funds are collected in connection to the event for the purpose of donating raised funds to a political party, campaign and/or candidate.

    Updated at 17.10 AEDT

    From the Guardian blog

  22. Socrates says:
    Monday, November 7, 2022 at 5:31 pm
    I just caught up with the news that Dutton tried out the National Service line today.
    Timing! Just as we are trying to shrink the army and grow the Navy and Air Force, which both need highly skilled professionals

    _________________________________________

    The only people who ever talk about National Service are people who would have absolutely no part in delivering a National Service program.

  23. TPOF @ #1101 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 4:55 pm

    Bennelong Lurker says:
    Monday, November 7, 2022 at 4:37 pm
    Been out today (challenging tooth extraction) so just tuned in to Robodebt RC. Did I miss anything significant this morning?

    _________________________________

    The most significant thing so far today is that Human Services obtained tax data from the ATO under a 2004 protocol and did not follow the letter that should have been sent to the customer (as set out in the protocol), did not do any actual manual checks to confirm that a debt was actually owed (as required by the protocol) and a few other breaches of the agreement with the ATO.

    And for our resident Shorten hater, the current deputy CEO of Human Services (since 2020) just agreed that the data matching process prior to Robodebt was incredibly different from what later transpired. “Rational” was the comment from Commissioner Holmes in regard to the prior data matching process.

    nath, meet rug pull 🙂

  25. The LNP opposition looked ashen during Question Time…. They are done for.
    Albo reserving special treatment for Angus Taylor, why is Taylor such a poor performer in parliament ( & previously as a minster), from the Guardian

    He won the university medal at Sydney University in economics, and studied law as well. A Rhodes scholarship took him to Oxford, where he rowed for New College and studied a masters in economics. Then he was snapped up by the McKinsey & Company consulting firm, where he worked for clients such as Rio Tinto and several major agribusinesses.

    He seems to be a highly qualified dud

  26. Re robodebt, shows you how dangerous the Libs are when they see themselves above the law in this brazen way. God’s work indeed.

  27. I got on to the royal commission only long enough to see Her Honour make a very sarcastic remark after the witness said the robodebt scheme was represented as a “slam dunk”. “Oh, like the weapons of mass destruction on Iraq?”, she said.

  30. Sceptic @ #1125 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 5:40 pm

    The LNP opposition looked ashen during Question Time…. They are done for.
    Albo reserving special treatment for Angus Taylor, why is Taylor such a poor performer in parliament ( & previously as a minster), from the Guardian

    He won the university medal at Sydney University in economics, and studied law as well. A Rhodes scholarship took him to Oxford, where he rowed for New College and studied a masters in economics. Then he was snapped up by the McKinsey & Company consulting firm, where he worked for clients such as Rio Tinto and several major agribusinesses.

    He seems to be a highly qualified dud

    I couldn’t believe he asked the government about rising Energy prices that he hid!

  31. RE: compulsory national service.

    At a time of labor shortages and crisis who would be stupid enough to suggest national service? As also pointed out it is a very expensive exercise.

  32. Maybe this is the clue to Taylor’s failures…
    “he was snapped up by the McKinsey & Company consulting firm“
    Ideology over ability

  33. Simon Katich @ #1037 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 1:03 pm

    Rather than relying too heavily on the the poll musings of pro Democrat podcasters and DNC operatives for US midterm election day forecasting – how about checking the weather forecast? Snow in Nevada. If there is enough snow it will dampen election day turnout where early voting is slightly favouring the Democrats.

    You could also make the equally credible point that Republican voters are more likely to turn up on election day and so it will be their vote that will be depressed.

  36. C@tmomma @ #1133 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 5:21 pm

    Simon Katich @ #1037 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 1:03 pm

    Rather than relying too heavily on the the poll musings of pro Democrat podcasters and DNC operatives for US midterm election day forecasting – how about checking the weather forecast? Snow in Nevada. If there is enough snow it will dampen election day turnout where early voting is slightly favouring the Democrats.

    You could also make the equally credible point that Republican voters are more likely to turn up on election day and so it will be their vote that will be depressed.

    That was my point.

  38. Shorten in QT Dorothy Dix read out the list of ministers that were part of the Robdebt debacle… must have been 7 or.. ducking for cover.

  39. Simon Katich @ #1136 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 5:58 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1133 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 5:21 pm

    Simon Katich @ #1037 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 1:03 pm

    Rather than relying too heavily on the the poll musings of pro Democrat podcasters and DNC operatives for US midterm election day forecasting – how about checking the weather forecast? Snow in Nevada. If there is enough snow it will dampen election day turnout where early voting is slightly favouring the Democrats.

    You could also make the equally credible point that Republican voters are more likely to turn up on election day and so it will be their vote that will be depressed.

    That was my point.

    Soz. I misread it.

  40. nath says:
    Monday, November 7, 2022 at 2:53 pm

    Somyurek says the Labor party “is merely a vehicle for a private school-educated inner-city elitist cabal to exploit the working class to enhance their own political careers.”
    中华人民共和国
    Guess that bloke has never been Upnorth – hehe.

  41. nath says:
    Monday, November 7, 2022 at 5:56 pm

    Congrats to Bill Shorten for pursuing the Liberal Government over Robodebt.
    中华人共和国
    +1 well said cobber.

  45. TPOF

    The witness Mr Birrer suggested a couple of times late in his evidence that through the Robodebt debacle the DHS may have lost sight of the fact it was a welfare agency.

    Fancy that happening under a LNP givernment.

  46. ‘BK says:
    Monday, November 7, 2022 at 5:41 pm

    I got on to the royal commission only long enough to see Her Honour make a very sarcastic remark after the witness said the robodebt scheme was represented as a “slam dunk”. “Oh, like the weapons of mass destruction on Iraq?”, she said.’
    ===========================
    Kaboom!

  49. I see Chalmers today left open the possibility of changes to the PRRT following a review currently in progress, when answering a question from Scamps.

    Now, being a Treasurer acting with integrity, he wouldn’t string Australians along on that with no intention of making changes at all, would he ..?

  50. I would personally like to thank the boomers for electorally supporting 10yrs of social, environmental and economical vandalism from the L/NP.

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