Fair bit of polling doing the rounds this week, as is generally the case in the wake of a budget:
• The Age/Herald had further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on Tuesday, including ratings for the two leaders, which had 57% rating Anthony Albanese’s performance as very good or good compared with 28% for poor or very poor, with Peter Dutton respectively at 29% and 41%. The poll also found 40% supported allowing multi-employer bargaining, with 24% opposed; 26% supported mandatory multi-employer bargaining, with 32% opposed; and an even 29% favoured higher wages at the cost of higher prices and vice-versa.
• This fortnight’s Essential Research survey features the monthly prime ministerial ratings, which now involves directing respondents to give Anthony Albanese a rating from zero to ten. Forty-five per cent gave him between seven and ten, down one on last month; 28% gave him from four to six, down three; and 20% gave him zero to three, up three. Questions on the budget turned up one finding missed by the others: 45% said they had paid it little or no attention, around ten points up on the last three budgets, while 55% said a little or a lot, around ten points down. Fifty-two per cent expect economic conditions to worsen over the next twelve months, up twelve since June, while 24% expect them to improve, down eight. Respondents were asked to pick first and second most important contributors to energy price increases, which had excessive profits and efforts to fight climate change leading the field, international circumstances and a worn-out energy network somewhat lower, and too many restrictions on exploration well behind. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 1058.
• Roy Morgan’s regular weekly video has included primary votes from its latest federal poll, conducted from October 24 (the day before the budget) to October 30, rather than just two-party preferred as per its usual form. This shows Labor on 38.5% (down half on the previous week), the Coalition on 37% (up one-and-a-half), the Greens on 12% (up one), independents on 6% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (down one-and-a-half). Labor led 55.5-44.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54.5-45.5.
• The quarterly-or-so True Issues series from JWS Research is a “special release” on the budget, as opposed to its usual focus on issue salience. It finds 14% of respondents saying the budget would be good or very good for them personally compared with 36% for average and 31% for poor or very poor; for the national economic impact, the respective numbers were 20%, 38% and 25%. However, respondents provided highly positive responses when asked about fifteen specific budget measures, all but one of which attracted a favourable response – the distinct exception being “axing” the low-and-middle income tax offset. The most popular spending measures involved health and the least popular (relatively speaking) involved parental leave and childcare subsidies.
• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of a YouGov poll it commissioned encompassing 1000 respondents in each of Australia, the United States and Japan, conducted from September 5 to 9. It found 44% of Australians would support responding with force if China invaded Taiwan, compared with 33% of Americans; 36% of Australians felt the US alliance made Australia more secure, with 58% of Americans holding a reciprocal view, up from 44% in December; 52% of Australians felt China was “mostly harmful” in Asia, with 20% rating it “mostly helpful”; an interestingly even 28% and 31% felt the same way about the United States, in dramatic contrast to results of 7% and 52% among Japanese respondents; 36% approved of the federal government’s handling of the relationship with China, with 19% disapproving; 52% supported the nuclear submarines plan, with 19% opposed; and “one in two”. Thirty-six per cent of Australians felt it would be good for the country if Joe Biden won another term compared with 19% for bad, while 50% felt a return of Donald Trump would be bad compared with 26% for good.
• In a rare bit of interesting polling news from Western Australia, a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian finds Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 70%, up two from March, and a disapproval rating of 18%, down seven, suggesting a consistency of popularity beyond any Australian politician I could name. David Honey, leader of what remains of the state parliamentary Liberal Party, had an approval rating of just 9%, with 31% disapproving, 40% neutral and 19% oblivious. The poll also found stage three tax cuts supported by 53% and opposed by 32%. It was conducted from October 19 to 21 from a sample of 637.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 12:51 pm
My luck ran out.
Covid + for the first time. Not a pleasant experience.
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Best wishes for a speedy recovery and minimal effects.
Credlin’s whinge – the voters are SO stupid!
Nate Silver delights in pointing out peoples bias getting in the way of their reason. But he forgets he too is biased – to himself and his models at least. The criticism of how he uses Republican leaning pollsters (who aren’t transparent in their method or results) has touched a nerve – which is odd because he has been very critical in the past (iirc) of the like of Rasmussen and also recognised that his aggregation is flawed when the big and well rated pollsters aren’t in the field often enough.
And while he does shift a pollsters results based on priors that doesn’t cut it when the pollster isn’t transparent in method and biased. If we take the leap and assume Rasmussen is trying to shift the aggregate for some reason, they will of course take into account Silvers bias shift. It would have problems for Rasmussen down the track, but maybe the track ends on Tuesday.
Michigan Dems +22!
2020 Dems +1
Maybe Credlin should take her undoubted brilliance into politics and show how easy it is or is she just all talk.
Simon K.,
Please watch this before you have kittens! 😆
https://youtu.be/G42hiYbwJUs
Early Voting in Wisconsin Dems + 14
Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 4:09 pm
Maybe Credlin should take her undoubted brilliance into politics and show how easy it is or is she just all talk.
________
That’s a bit unfair. She did run the country once.
nath @ #807 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 4:12 pm
A lot of comments on the Herald Sun article suggesting she should do just that, but hoping she might be better than Matt Guy
When Bracks was Premier some used to say that the next Liberal Premier wasn’t even in Parliament, others said he/she hadn’t even been born yet.
It’s hard to see the Liberals in Victoria ever being competitive without a Moderate take over.
All logic and polling suggests that Labor will get back in with a reduced majority, then you have the Teal challenge, the Greens vs Labor contests. It will be a fascinating election.
Fingers crossed that the complete nutters are defeated in the US.
If so, hats off to Victoria who has been steadfast all year in her belief that the Dems will get both.
Fingers crossed indeed. But I’m not holding my breath. The cumulative effects of inflation and cost of living: the old fashioned hip pocket nerve – will likely prove insurmountable for the democrats. Shame really because its not Biden’s fault really and he’s been a pretty steady hand. In in other economic circumstances I think the democrats would have bucked the historical trend and held on to both the house and senate, such is the shitful disgrace that is the Trumpian GOP. Alas.
Barney in Cherating @ #754 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 1:25 pm
You are dreaming of a “Big Australia”, so it’s you.
Poliphili says:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 4:41 pm
Fingers crossed that the complete nutters are defeated in the US.
__________________
It’s no longer about politics. It’s about sanity and insanity.
It’s about cowards who can’t face real life and take the weak way out by living a make-believe life.
Trump is one of the great scammers in history.
To be able to lure the defeated souls of society into a world of make-believe to become President was a masterclass scam.
citizen says:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 3:50 pm
Credlin’s whinge – the voters are SO stupid!
Peta Credlin
Car crash politics: the real Daniel Andrews finally exposed
What does it say about our democracy when the premier who made Melbourne the world’s most Covid-locked-down city is still comfortably ahead 54-46 in Newspoll and likely to be re-elected? (Hun headline)
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I wonder if it has ever occurred to Credlin, even once in her life, that it might just be her that is wrong, her that is out of touch, her that needs to reflect on reality?
SK, “but maybe the track ends on Tuesday.”
When everybody is a player who can you trust? Hmm. When I started typing that sentence, I was only thinking of the pollster feedback loop you described. But then it occurred to me: Tuesday, voters, trust… argh.
Mood swings. I hate them. I remember when ETTD applied just to Trump’s business. Then it was applied to the GOP. Can he actually extend that miasma to cover the entire USA? Nah. He’s going to jail. The ants are swarming. Swings.
I find the current lead-up period to the US mid-terms to be quite nerve wracking, mostly because the ramifications for the not just the US but the world are enormous. Worse still, the resolution to this is out of the hands of most of the world’s population. All we can do is sit back and watch what will be either a razor thin victory for commonsense or an almost total train smash likely to be finalised in 2024.
The polling, and the reporting on the polling, seems to be remarkably inconsistent (which may be good or bad) and very difficult to discern patterns through so much seemingly intentional white noise. Either way, the outcome will be fascinating. Polling in Australia seemed to have rebalanced itself over the past three years, I wonder if the same has occurred in the US or whether it is still as flawed as in 2016?
Credlin, essentially a shill for big corps, prolonging their scam of Australians.
I am not too fussed about the mid terms. The problem I have is that the trend is not our friend in the US. That, coupled with choosing a highly unstable neurotic for our international bestie.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/04/polls-federal-and-wa-leaders-budget-response-foreign-policy-open-thread/comment-page-17/#comment-4005375
Wasn’t she Tonicchio’s puppeteer?
CoS but in actuality …
Boewar: A good result for the Republicans means they can block supply, stop debt limit increasing, cut social security and hold a lot of hearings into Biden’s son etc.
I can see an economic crisis within a few months affecting the whole world.
Formalism and bureacratism in implementing dynamic zero Covid strategy are getting the good old rectification treatment. My guess is that getting rectified is not a good thing.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1278770.shtml
Subtext: we are getting anxious about the growing resentment from the people about the lock ups.
Simon K.,
Please watch this before you have kittens!
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Oh no! Not you! You’ll have me hand wringing and bed wetting next.
I have just been countering the view that only dodgy Republican polls are showing a turnaround in polling to the GOP in the last month.
Omg. Speaking of Kittens! Halfway thru writing that I saw a mouse jump out of my daughters onight bag (she just got back from a sleepover) and I raced over to catch it before it crawled under the fridge and later becomes cat food.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 5:21 pm
Boewar: A good result for the Republicans means they can block supply, stop debt limit increasing, cut social security and hold a lot of hearings into Biden’s son etc.
I can see an economic crisis within a few months affecting the whole world.’
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I agree. They are fucking insane. My point was a resignation about it only be a matter of time before the GOP crazies run the US asylum into the ground.
So it turns out the manbabies and convicted cheats running the Australian cricket team did need a demanding high performance coach to keep their performance in the same solar system as their egos.
WeWantPaul @ #629 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 5:24 pm
They’ve already moved on like a circus to the next town…
Not worried about midterms? Putting aside the possibility of the Dems losing control of Congress, there are important races for state office holders that the GOP can use to inhibit fair elections or overthrow results.
The nutters are on ballots up and down.
Victorian’s and Tasmanians are selecting and coaching the Australian T20 side. And a kiwi! Has anyone explained dropping Starc?
I ain’t too excited about it tho. T20 is random excitement. I just can’t get into it unless it is a subcontinent match with a full crowd.
Forecast for Melbourne next Sunday is rain + thunderstorms. Could be a washout for the T20 final.
One for Team Anaesthesia:
– https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-06/qld-health-baby-saylor-born-with-rare-tumor-mater-hospital/101600822
So if there are 50 candidates running against Andrews in Mulgrave, will that increase Boerwar’s Informal Party vote share enough to seriously effect the result …?
Jack Dorsey takes responsibility for Twitter sackings!
The Verge 6/11/22 (Link will not cut/paste)
affect
“Victorian’s and Tasmanians are selecting and coaching the Australian T20 side. And a kiwi!”
Well that explains it.
Does anyone know why no balls result in a free hit and wides don’t?
Wides by definition mean the bat can’t hit it.
Victoria’s voters intend to vote Labor in defiance of instructions from Murdoch minions…
On Saturday, Jack Dorsey, Twitter’s co-founder and former chief executive, suggested the mass sackings were necessary because he had expanded too fast. “I own the responsibility for why everyone is in this situation: I grew the company too quickly. I apologise for that,” said Dorsey, who stepped down from Twitter’s board in May and has supported Musk’s takeover.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/05/elon-musk-doesnt-know-what-hes-doing-says-former-twitter-executive
David Rowe
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 4:55 pm
We are already facing the challenges of an aging population. Without immigration these challenges would be much greater now and only get worse.
Our cities have become more and more unwieldy, infrastructure and transport networks are failing to keep up with the expansion meaning people are even more reliant on their own vehicle(s) for mobility.
That’s all without considering the international pressures as people are displaced by climate change.
I don’t dream of a “Big Australia,” I look at what we need to do to accommodate a growing population that will probably continue until the end of this century.
The way we have allowed or cities to grow is unsustainable from both a social and environmental perspective.
You seemingly think we can put our heads up our arses and say stop and the problems will go away. They won’t, and it will condemn Australia to an increasingly aging population.
I would love Australia to be like in my youth, it was a fantastic environment to grow up in, but clinging to that ideal is what has allowed the growth of our cities to get so out of control.
We need to get smarter.
Take care Rex – hope it’s a mild course.
“ Nobody expects the RBA to have a crystal ball. There might well be a justification for a softer stance. But what’s not justifiable is an inconsistent strategy that combines tough talk with soft action, incoherent and incomplete communication, and a set of forecasts that suggest you’re wilfully failing.”
A fair analysis of the RBA and its loss of credibility, a central bank’s greatest asset.
Paywalled https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/lowe-should-watch-powell-to-learn-how-to-restore-credibility-20221102-p5bv1y
‘How’d 538 go from 70% D’s hold Senate to 45% in 7 weeks with no major news shifts?’
I follow the US News pretty avidly and I think we are in a ‘boiling frog’ scenario. There has been a definite souring process over the last few weeks, things like more inflation, continue perceptions of crime, Ukraine going on. I think the Democrats are going to lose pretty badly in the House and by a couple in the Senate.
On the Nate vs. Nate debate, I’m generally with the ‘all data has some value’ camp but obviously you do want to exclude complete rubbish partisan polls.. But how do you know beforehand, for new entrants, which is complete rubbish as opposed to having some adjustable value?
Barney:
Instead of “Whyalla Wipeout” we can have “Whyalla Wonderland” based around an overbuild of solar power driving desalination. And 200K in Y plus 150K in both Pt Augusta and Pt Pirie working in high-tech horticulture, aged care (think Scottsdale and the Mayo Clinic) etc. 500K Australians living in three manageably sized cities.
As Dorothy Parker supposedly said: “you can lead a horticulture, but you can’t make her think”. But we do need to think.
E. G. Theodore. Deep breath on that one. That’s a team. Wet eyes.
Re the Rowe cartoon. Is that Mr Musk trapped in the cage/crown?
“I think the Democrats are going to lose pretty badly in the House and by a couple in the Senate.”
If this is right and it easily could be, then Biden will be impeached, Garland will be spending so much time giving evidence he won’t be able to get anything else done.
Trump* will also be guaranteed a win in 2024, regardless of voters.
* Look the money might choose De Santis which would be worse.
WWP
Both Clinton and Obama were hammered in their first midterms before easily getting reelection not that Biden is on their level and has a deteriorating economy.