The Age yesterday had a Resolve Strategic poll of Victorian state, following up on a similar poll a month ago. Labor retains a commanding lead over the Coalition of 38% to 31% on the primary vote, although this compares with 42% to 28% last time. All other players are unchanged, with the Greens on 12%, independents on 12% and others on 6%. Labor leads the Coalition 41% to 27% among women, compared with 35% apiece among men. The pollster hasn’t traditionally produced two-party results, but this one comes advertised as 59-41 to Labor. Daniel Andrews holds a 49-29 lead over Matthew Guy as preferred premier, out from 46-28 last time. A question on issue salience found “keeping the cost of living low” towering above the pack, followed by health, environment, economic management and integrity. The poll was conducted October 20 to 24 from a sample of 800.
Roy Morgan last week published results from a somewhat dated phone and online poll conducted from 1379 respondents at unspecified times during September. It showed Labor with a 60-40 lead, out from 58-42 at the last such poll in August, from primary votes of Labor 42% (up five-and-a-half), Coalition 28% (down one) and Greens 14.5% (up half), with 15.5% scattered among an array of minor party and independent options.
@Jeremy:
Can we play guess the Newspoll result. I’m “guessing” ALP 54/46.
ALP 37
COALITION 31
GREENS 14
INDEPENDENTS 12
OTHERS 6
——————-
I think your primary vote estimates are probably about right, but that would translate to a higher 2PP than 54-46. Those primary vote figures are almost identical to the last Resolve poll which translated to 59-41; and remember the last Newspoll had the Coalition on a 36% primary vote but only 44% 2PP.
Based on typical flows from the Greens, the 2PP would already be around 48-34 before distributing the 18% IND+OTHER and I doubt any pollsters would distribute that as 6-12 favouring the Coalition.
I’ll say it again. Independents on 12 won’t happen in a month of Sundays: there just won’t be enough of them. They scored 6 last time. No way known are they going to double that.
Agree.
Statewide polls though often give an inflated Independent number, especially with the ‘buzz’ around them at the moment, because they aren’t seat specific so respondents will often nominate Independent in a poll but don’t actually have a one to vote for on the day; or at least don’t recognise their names (because they’re not high profile) so stick with a major or at least a party.
It was exactly the same federally, polls were consistently showing double-digits for Independents but in the end they got 5.29% (which only equated to a +1.29% swing) because it was only concentrated to a few seats.
It’ll be the same here. I expect IND to be inflated in the Newspoll but then only about 5-6% to actually eventuate on the day.
@Jeremy: and Trent.
Can we play guess the Newspoll result. I’m “guessing” ALP 54/46.
ALP 37
COALITION 31
GREENS 14
INDEPENDENTS 12
OTHERS 6
——————————–
That correlates to 60/40 – 2pp.
My belief is the Liberal vote will collapse entirely. They need to be rebuilt from the ground up and ‘liberals’ know it.
The National party will hold up.
We will have additional Greens, we will have additional indies, but the Libs will Kirkup.
As for the ‘fake’ independents – that is really sickening. If you are a member of a party you are not an independent. Voters are not stupid. I speak specifically of those two candidates who sought pre-selection for a major party and are running as a second candidate in the same seat. (For the record – Teals are independent.)
The finished Matt Guy and his inner circle are completely unelectable.
David Southwick is the deputy leader and yet the consensus among their own party is Prosciutto will be the leader of the opposition after the election. Kind of a vote of no confidence in Southwick, if you know what I mean.
Even if Independents do score 12% on election day, that doesn’t guarantee seats.
From 1958 to 1970, the DLP in Victoria had 13-17% of the Primary Vote, but they never won a single seat.
The preferences of their voters, however, were very much appreciated by Henry Bolte’s Liberals, who maintained a majority government in all that time, despite their primary vote being between 36-39%, trailing Labor in all of them except 1964.
Incidentally, the only seat the DLP and its initial party Anti-Communist Labor held at an election was Richmond in 1955, but was regained by Labor in 1958.
@Kirksdake,
and that is the role the Greens and Teals are currently playing for the ALP. As an anti-LNP voter I hope this remains the status quo for a good period of time.
The ALP must only govern well and the LNP will keep themselves out of power. The further away from power the RWNJs that have swamped their collective parties are kept, the better.
Sportsbet has minority Labor firming from 12.0 into 10.0. Still way way overs. Get on before minority Labor becomes favourite. $$$$$
Sportsbet has minority Labor firming from 12.0 into 10.0. Still way way overs. Get on before minority Labor becomes favourite. $$$$$$
Also, in my opinion, I do hope the Upper House gets reformed somehow in the next term. I don’t think the 2018 result reflected the will of the electorate, and I hope a new system is put in place.
Abolishing group-ticket voting would be a good start, but I’m unsure about what would be better of the choices of keeping it to a number of electoral regions or making it statewide. But I am leaning to the opinion that a new council should be elected every term rather than staggering it as a half-council election between 2 terms like in NSW and SA.
I just hope this time around that the majority of the Upper House would be in favour of reform, and whoever wins does so. It’s honestly embarrassing seeing MLC’s elected with less than 1% of the vote just because they win the preference roulette.
@MABWM you’re right, when I was looking closer at Jeremy’s Newspoll prediction too I noticed that his primary vote numbers are actually just about identical to Resolve’s.
Compared to the Resolve poll he just has Labor -1 and Greens +2, and everything else identical.
(The Resolve poll only added up to 99, not 100, due to rounding which is accounts for the gap)
There’s no way that a 1% transfer between Labor & Greens, plus an additional 1% for the Greens, can result in a -5% 2PP for Labor compared to Resolve’s same set of numbers.
I also agree with your comments about the so-called independents. I agree that actual “teals” are independent but if you literally ran for preselection with a party for this very election but failed and decided to run anyway, you are not an independent, you’re essentially a second candidate for that party.
And for all the Labor luvvies, Labor majority is paying 1.12. FREE MONEY.
Get on it presuming you’re lifters(have $$$) and not leaners(have no $$$).
Otherwise vote Greens that have policies that would bring down inequality unlike Labor who continue to look after developers/wealthy/landlords/big business etc etc.
Gonna be a fascinating election.
Jeremy, I really struggle to believe that you’re a Greens supporter if you believe in neo-liberal concepts like “lifters and leaners” which is right out of the Joe Hockey playbook.
Your insinuation that those on low incomes are “leaners” or that only people on low incomes would support Labor or the Greens is not only offensive but plainly incorrect.
Resolve, Morgan PFTTTTTTTT.
Let’s wait for Newspoll.
And before Newspoll releases it’s poll, get on minority Labor @ 10.0. Those odds will come down(maybe).
You’re clearly just trolling now.
Let’s recap this sequence of events:
1. Resolve have a poll that says 38 ALP, 31 LIB, 12 GRN, 12 IND, 6 OTHER.
2. You predict that Newspoll will be 37 ALP, 31 LIB, 14 GRN, 12 IND, 6 OTHER. Almost identical.
3. You then say “Resolve, PFFFT. Let’s wait for Newspoll”.
But you predict Newspoll will be identical to Resolve other than a 1% swap between Labor & Greens?
Trent. Teals are closest to my political leanings. I love the environment and believe in personal freedoms. Anti church and their prehistoric views on gays/abortions etc etc. Yet even though we don’t live in an economy, we need one. Socially progressive, economically conservative probably best describes me, although l believe everyone should have an education, shelter and health otherwise the social ills outweighs the benefits. l do despise the poor me syndrome. l don’t won’t to live in a gated community. Resident of Footscray electorate(best neighbourhood in the world) l see the best and worst society has to offer. Katie Hall, pathetic, never see or hear from her. Reasons she did so well last election was better than Marsha(her predecessor) and Greens candidate rapped about rape. Greens huge chance to take Footscray. Actually maybe I’m more Reason party. Fiona Patten done more in last eight years than the Greens. What about you?
Trent, l can’t see how people(resolve doesn’t do 2pp) get 59/41 out of their results. Greens generally prefernce 80% Labor, methinks closer to 70% this state election. Independents(mainly right wing or centre) and others(nearly all right wing tin foil wearing) voting against ALP. Lot closer to 57/43 methinks. Yes, l probably think 55/45 for Newspoll but rounding can be a b%#ch.
Or, putting another theory out there, maybe this election there’ll be a “shy Labor” effect, where people say that they won’t vote Labor to pollsters, mainly because whenever they say that they think Dan Andrews is okay with them, that sets off their Cooker acquaintances/family to start convulsing and spit venom everywhere and start waving Trump flags and that makes the other party guests uncomfortable.
Who knows? Nobody will until election night on 26 November.
And might l add that the moderator on this site is awesome, unlike most of the commentators who have absolutely no idea and will fight for Labors cause no matter what. Some are Turkey’s that argue for Xmas and thanksgiving. Enjoy the next 24 days of election campaign and please don’t herd like many others. Opinions should always be respected and not bullied because God forbid, it’s not Labor policy.
I am predominantly a Greens voter but also greatly admire the Reason Party and credit Fiona Patten with a lot of Victoria’s great social reforms. I have put Reason #1 on upper house ballots before (below the line, of course) but they are always at least top 3 and at the recent federal election I actually put the Victorian Socialists #1 in the Senate. So I’m not rusted onto one party and am happy to swing between different left-leaning parties.
However, I’m very left economically. I think trickle down economics and privatisation are a dismal failure and that the economy is always stimulated from the bottom up, not the top down. I don’t believe anyone is a “lifter” or a “leaner”. So teals have less appeal to me because I’m aware they need to appease a more economically conservative base.
I won’t go into my own personal circumstances but I can assure you that I’m not what you would consider a “leaner”. Let’s just say I pay a lot of tax and would personally benefit from the Stage 3 tax cuts, but I do not support them.
As for the 2PP calculations with your prediction:
* I can guarantee that Greens preference will not flow anywhere near 70/30. They are usually about 85/15 and I believe that increased to closer to 88/12 at the federal election. As the Liberal Party become increasingly right-wing, Greens preferences will only strengthen for Labor.
* Even far-right parties’ preferences (One Nation, UAP) only flow about 65-35 to the Coalition. I do expect that might be a little higher due to a “put Labor last” mentality, but they are not even a majority of the ‘Other’ vote. A 54-46 2PP based on your predicted primary votes would require all the Other/Independent preferences combined to flow at the same rate as One Nation preferences!
* There are also a lot of left-wing minors who do pretty well in Victorian seats: Reason, AJP, Victorian Socialists. They will flow very strongly to Labor as well (at least 70-30 combined) and probably cancel out the right-wing minors.
* Then you’re left with the more local independents and teals, whose preferences will be closer to 50/50. If One Nation preferences only flow 65-35, then environmental teals are not going to flow better to the Coalition than that.
As a side note, Resolve actually did do a 2PP for that poll. They no longer provide a 2PP further out from elections, but they do provide them closer to the election and provided it in this poll. I believe their 2PP was even respondent-allocated, not via a methodology based on previous results.
Jeremy.
Is the relationship between Stamoulis and Guy known to you?
Before you get to the rest of the “Cartel” of property developers Guy is associated with.
You should be careful about what you contribute because you are currently opening Pandora’s Box.
Looks like I missed a door-knock by the local Greens today. Had a Sam Hibbons leaflet with a handwritten “Sorry we missed you” note at the front door.
They’re putting a lot of effort into Prahran, I assume to prepare for the possibility of a tight GRN v ALP race, because they wouldn’t be too worried about Labor overtaking them at the 3CP stage I wouldn’t think.
Trent, when do the parties need to lodge their “how to vote cards” if they do at all? l know the upper house preference deals(the one that got Fielding elected instead of Green in Senate because of Labor need to be lodged). Greens could be worried about nothing in regards to Prahan if Libs preference them or not recommend preferences. That in my opinion would help Libs their strategy of “put Dan last”, not to mention the chances of em winning in four years.
Here we go again @ #220 Wednesday, November 2nd, 2022 – 5:57 pm
‘I move that the member be no longer heard’
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-kick-starts-election-campaign-with-ad-attacking-guy-and-colleagues-20221102-p5buzz.html
It is on!
Parties will usually post their HTV cards online just before early & postal voting opens but they’re only optional.
I agree if the Libs preference Greens in Prahran it should be a safe Greens retain and they’d have nothing to worry about but it’s good that Hibbins isn’t taking anything for granted. Better to prepare for all possible outcomes.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/10/29/resolve-strategic-59-41-in-victoria/comment-page-5/#comment-4003580
Abolishing group ticket voting is a must. The double-decker ballot papers we look likely to have in every region this time should provide some extra impetus for reform.
Altering the eight five-member region structure of the Legislative Council of Victoria requires a referendum, which has no guarantee of passing.
Staggered terms are not coming back.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/10/29/resolve-strategic-59-41-in-victoria/comment-page-5/#comment-4003674
Victoria requires the registration of How To Vote Cards:
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/candidates-and-parties/become-a-state-election-candidate/how-to-vote-cards
With comments from Grime and here we go again(after l stated my political leanings), you understand what I’m talking about regarding posters on this site Trent. Also polls are accurate until someone not like them. l agree independents won’t get 12% of vote on election day. l also believe it won’t be 60/40 or 59/41 but they gang up(herd) on any poster that doesn’t preach Labors cause. Thanks for the HTV cards info. We should have em by early poll opening.
Tom the first and best, thankyou that info was very informative. l miss your posting. I’ve always been a fan of your posts going back to the Crikey days.
So need some cash in the sportsbet for when “how to vote” cards released. Albert Park, Footscray, Preston, Pascoe Vale could all become financially rewarding. Not to mention Labor minority after Greens pick those four seats up with Richmond and Northcote. Enjoy all, this election is fascinating.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-wheel-deal-as-labor-s-big-red-bus-takes-on-the-opposition-s-ditch-danmobile-20221102-p5buvn.html?btis
Looks like the Greens believe they can win Footscray. Campaigning in electorate.
Every Victorian has the right to stand for election. That also includes Victorians who sought preselection and didn’t get it. They cannot stand as “unendorsed Liberal” or “independent Labor” as many candidates did before formal party registration and ballot paper tags because of how we understand party endorsement nowadays. Being an independent expressly tells you nothing about the outlook of the candidate: it expressly tells that if it means anything to you, you have to look into it. Some candidates are on the wings, some in the centre, some are pretty well indistinguishable from anyone else
So I don’t see any reason at all that it should be “sickening” – well, not at the inter-party level of discourse going on here. Call them rats all you want. But the ones who they’re disloyal to is their fellow party members, not the electorate. I wouldn’t vote for them, but it’s completely different than Morrison’s many ministries or the secret guns policy the Tasmanian Liberals tried a few years ago.
Brett Owen(independent) in Pakenham. Has he a chance?
I don’t think so. Liberals will most likely just gain Pakenham I think.
The notional primary votes there are 44% ALP and 43% LIB, so with both major parties in the 40s it would be almost impossible for an Independent to make the 2CP count. It would require massive swings against BOTH parties, not just one.
Labor could very well get a double digit swing against, but an Independent won’t pass them unless they get ~15% swings against both majors.
I’m predicting a ~5% 2PP swing to the Liberals here.
A lot of discussion makes no sense here. Also a lot of people commenting on suburbs they haven’t been to. If ALP is suffering swings in outer suburbs and safe seats and their seats are falling left right and centre to independents and Libs, logic would tell you they are getting swings in their favor somewhere else as state 2PP is same as last election.
A quick look at pendelum would tell you Libs have a dozen seats on <%2 margin.
Gorks
A lot of discussion makes no sense here. Also a lot of people commenting on suburbs they haven’t been to. If ALP is suffering swings in outer suburbs and safe seats and their seats are falling left right and centre to independents and Libs, logic would tell you they are getting swings in their favor somewhere else as state 2PP is same as last election.
A quick look at pendelum would tell you Libs have a dozen seats on <%2 margin.
———————————————-
We need more polling because there's plenty of noise about a big swing against the government and people around the government expect them to lose seats but the polling isn't backing up that narrative.
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/terrible-for-the-climate-victoria-s-native-logging-emissions-equivalent-to-700-000-cars-20221101-p5buqm.html?btis
Labor bad for environment.
Gorks, I agree.
Let’s say for example swings are expected against Labor in the outer southeast and the outer north & west, the fact that Labor’s 2PP and even primary vote is still holding up pretty well statewide points to expected pro-Labor (or more specifically, anti-Liberal) swings in other regions to balance it out. I think in particular the inner south, eastern suburbs and bayside areas.
Pakenham is a seat on a small notional Labor margin located in the heart of a region expected to have some Labor backlash, which is why it’s seen as one of the most likely Labor losses.
But when you look at the Liberals holding marginal seats like Sandringham (0.4%), Brighton (0.5%) and Glen Waverley (0.9%) in areas that swung hard against the Liberals in May, have little to no sign of widespread discontent with Dan Andrews (beyond the rusted on Liberal base), but a lot of discontent with the direction of the Liberal Party, like you say those swings against Labor in the outer suburbs are likely to be balanced by the opposite elsewhere and those seats are right in the firing line for the Liberal Party. Outer eastern suburbs where seats like Croydon (1%), Evelyn (1.8%) & Bayswater (0.6%) are on slim margins are also a bit of an unknown at this time, and I don’t claim to have any local knowledge of those races at all.
As for the Labor/Greens contests in seats like Footscray, Pascoe Vale & Preston, even if the Liberals were to decide to preference the Greens over Labor, it’s unlikely that preferences would flow more than 70-30 in either direction.
The notional Liberal vote is 16% in Preston and 17% in Footscray, but that could very well be even less this year. But let’s assume – to be kind to both the Liberal Party and the Greens’ chances – that the Liberals get 20%, preference the Greens, and they flow 70-30 to the Greens. Very unlikely, but a best case scenario for the Greens chances.
In that hypothetical scenario, Labor would still get 6% in Liberal preferences (and likely another 1-2% from other minors).
That means that mathematically for Labor to have any chance of losing those seats, their primary vote will need to drop below at the 42-43% range with the Liberals preferencing the Greens (more like 35% if the Liberals preference Labor).
Their current notional primary votes are 54.4% in Footscray and 52.4% in Preston, so swings ranging between 10-12% against Labor would be required for them to lose those seats, and even then it would only be if Liberal preferences flow 70-30 to the Greens based on a 20% LIB primary vote, and still only result in a lineball 50/50 contest.
All of those factors aligning is extremely unlikely, especially as you say, when large swings are expected against Labor in other regions that are expected to be balanced by either neutral or positive swings elsewhere based on their statewide support.
The Greens simply campaigning or putting effort into those seats doesn’t necessarily equate to an expectation to win them, but can be part of a long term strategy to chip away at the margins for next time, and also it’s important to campaign in those seats for the upper house – particularly Footscray which is in Western Metro which they are hoping to gain an LC seat in.
I left Pascoe Vale out of the analysis because the presence of a 23% independent there last time has skewed all the primary votes, for example the Liberals only got 11% which means their preference flows would barely even make a dent, but those results are likely to be very different this time.
Albert Park is the only “long shot” seat where Liberals preferencing Greens could flip the result this time, because the Liberal vote is higher and therefore their preferences have more of an impact, and the Labor vote is about 10% lower than in Footscray & Preston.
Brighton(sportsbet)
Independent firming
Labor out to 8.0
Liberal easing.
Remember to vote strategically and put independent above Labor.
Labor minority(sportsbet)10.0
Not much difference in those odds for Labor minority or Labor winning Brighton Dr John. This thread should discuss possibilities on 26th November, not polls from two months ago.
Update for the Ripon Report and some on-the-spot observations:
Just received some campaign letterboxing strangely delivered by the postie, count was ALP 1 and a very odd all red one with “put labor last” and “longest lockdowns”. Immediate thought was the cookers again, as in the pat have had the ‘impeach Dan Andrews’ and ‘Labor wants to turn students trans’ through my poor suffering letterbox.
Did google the auth address and it is liberal party membership division 12/257 Collins st. Guess the LNP are too ashamed to even use the L word, logo or colour in their advertising.
Other things:
Billboard count LNP 1 ALP 0
Candidate Appearances ALP 3 LNP 0
Corflute Count ALP 1 LNP 0
Flyer Count ALP 3 LNP(ish) 1
The main reason I don’t trust the betting odds is because when they opened, they actually put the Liberals at shorter odds than Labor in Prahran.
Anybody with an iota of understanding about how preferential voting works would know that the Liberals have zero chance in Prahran (their possibilities are a double-digit 2CP loss or a 3CP elimination), whereas even a situation where Labor decline and the Greens improve could result in a Labor win because of the unusual dynamics of the seat. The win probabilities in Prahran are probably 75% Greens, 25% Labor and 0% Liberals.
Now to be fair, only 2 days later they fixed it and put Labor at much shorter odds than the Liberals which is correct. But the fact that for even 1 day they opened with the Liberals at shorter odds showed that the markets are clearly not based on a sound psephological analysis, and would purely have been because it was a GRN v LIB seat with no understanding or consideration for the 3CP contest under the hood.
They also had Independent odds in Prahran, with no Independent even declared to run!
By the way Jeremy, if you’re following the betting odds more than the polls or past results etc, these are the current odds for Prahran:
Greens – $1.90
Labor – $1.90
Dead heat. Now, again this is another example personally of why I don’t agree that betting odds mean anything, because I think the Greens are a much better chance than Labor. As I said, 75% Greens and 25% Labor is what I’d predict to be the chances.
But I’m just curious, if betting odds are what you’re going by in Brighton, does that mean you also agree with Sportsbet’s take on Labor being a 50/50 chance to gain Prahran?
Gorks @ #235 Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 11:33 am
Spot on Gorks eg Pakenham.The part that in the previous election was part of Bass and helped to deliver Bass to the ALP has now become part of Pakenham.
part of Pearcedale has been hived off to Bass.Supposedly the part that went to Bass was conservative leaning but who really can foretell what is likely to happen in this election being there is now a very strong divide between the RWNJ division of the Libs and the more Rupert Hamer Teal voters likely to vote against the Libs.
Trent. l got Labor at 21.0 in Prahan when it opened. Way overs. Would only let me put $25 on it. Needless to say I’ve layed off on Greens @1.80. Minority Labor into 8.0. Betting odds all over place when they opened. 28.0 for Greens in Footscray. 21.0 for independent in Melton. Same odds for independent in Brighton just to name a few. It’s more novelty for the betting agencies, however movement of odds interesting. If you’ve got some internal info on polls why not make money. I noticed in May with Federal election betting odds would move after polls so l am ready to bet.
And Trent, in my opinion even at 8.0 Minority Labor is a great bet. Probably should be about 7/2 in the old language, so getting 2× value.
Jeremy says:
Thursday, November 3, 2022 at 1:51 pm
And Trent, in my opinion even at 8.0 Minority Labor is a great bet. Probably should be about 7/2 in the old language, so getting 2× value.
———————————–
Sir William Bowe rates Labor as nominally holding 58 seats.
How many do they have to lose for minority?
Ain’t gonna happen!
(actually the good odds was Toregene $5 race 7 Flemington just run/won)
In practical terms, for Labor to be reduced to Minority government, the Liberals have to win their nominally held seats of Bayswater and Bass from sitting first term Labor MP’s. The Nationals winning Mildura from Independent Ali Cupper would not be relevant to this, but it would reduce the crossbench.
From there, the Liberals have to hold their nominally Labor seats of Hastings (-0.01%), Caulfield (-0.2%) and Ripon (-2.8%).
Then, Labor has to lose an additional 11 seats, their most marginal being Hawthorn, Nepean, Northcote, Ashwood, Pakenham, South Barwon, Box Hill, Ringwood, Morwell, Melton and Richmond. That would reduce Labor to 44 seats out of 88 and they’d need votes from the crossbench from there.
So there would need to be a swing exceeding 5% against Labor to reduce them to minority government. It could happen, but the current numbers state that it’s not likely. However, it has happened before, like the 1991 NSW election, where the Coalition was forced into minority government despite holding 52.7% of the 2pp vote.
Of course anything can happen in the future. Earth may be hit by a meteor …
But Mathew Guy/David Davis and the joke liberals v Labor 58 nominal – ceteris paribus ain’t going to happen.
As inaccurate as they can be, I hope there’ll be some individual seat polls released between now and election day to see how things are going.
Individually they’re not much use, but if a lot of them are taken and released in the media then that can give us a better idea on what things are like at the ground level.
Two comments:
minority government:
Pffft.
Snowflakes in hell.
Fake independents
The aspect that is sickening with the fake independents (those who sought pre-selection for a party this election, lost and chose to run anyway as an independent) is that they are pretending they are ‘teal’ candidates. They are lying. They are not teal, they are members of the major parties pretending to be something they are not. They seek to slide in under the teal banner and in doing so poison the notion of independence for others. It poisons the pool and is a deliberate choice to distort the result. If you vote for a member of a political party, you get a member of a political party. It is very poor form.
Everyone has the right to run, but at least be honest about who and what you are. Hint: There is one from each of the major parties.
There are legitimate reasons to vote for an independent. There are legitimate reasons for running as an independent, but pretending to be one when you are not is highly distasteful, and, in my view, sickening.