The Age yesterday had a Resolve Strategic poll of Victorian state, following up on a similar poll a month ago. Labor retains a commanding lead over the Coalition of 38% to 31% on the primary vote, although this compares with 42% to 28% last time. All other players are unchanged, with the Greens on 12%, independents on 12% and others on 6%. Labor leads the Coalition 41% to 27% among women, compared with 35% apiece among men. The pollster hasn’t traditionally produced two-party results, but this one comes advertised as 59-41 to Labor. Daniel Andrews holds a 49-29 lead over Matthew Guy as preferred premier, out from 46-28 last time. A question on issue salience found “keeping the cost of living low” towering above the pack, followed by health, environment, economic management and integrity. The poll was conducted October 20 to 24 from a sample of 800.
Roy Morgan last week published results from a somewhat dated phone and online poll conducted from 1379 respondents at unspecified times during September. It showed Labor with a 60-40 lead, out from 58-42 at the last such poll in August, from primary votes of Labor 42% (up five-and-a-half), Coalition 28% (down one) and Greens 14.5% (up half), with 15.5% scattered among an array of minor party and independent options.
Trent, you appear to know your way around town.
What do you predict Labor’s Victoria Assembly seat tally will approximate post November.
And up or down on the current 55?
Al Pal,
This is not Truth Social.
You can’t just make stuff up – and then it becomes a truth.
If the ALP lost every seat it has but one, that one would be Mulgrave. The LNP candidate and slugman are competing against each other for the Gronk vote. One says Dan murdered 800 people and the other one says the Premier of the State deliberately set out to personally ruin his business.
Neither position is plausible.
That said, if you have any polling suggesting Dan will lose his seat to slugman, please share it.
@Dr John, I’m definitely more familiar with the southeast, and particularly the inner south, than the state more broadly but my prediction is that Labor might lose 3-4 of the notional 58 seats they have, and wind up right back around the 55 they won in 2018. Maybe 54-55.
I’m tipping losses in Pakenham, Nepean, Hastings, Richmond, Northcote and possibly Melton and/or Hawthorn; but offset by gains in Glen Waverley, Brighton and Sandringham (and holding their notional gain of Caulfield).
There are close seats like Ripon, Bayswater, Ringwood and Bass that I’m not really sure which way they might go.
If I had to guess a Legislative Assembly seat count though I’d probably go with something like:
54 ALP
25 Coalition
5 Greens
4 Independent (mostly rural, not teal)
What about you, what’s your prediction?
Trent, I’m not into the minutiae but I feel Labor will drop back a few but still end up at least 50+
Interesting you predict a Labor gain in Brighton. I live in the electorate but have a bad feeling that Newbury might get back in. Newbury has more signage than I have ever witnessed here ever and virtually no Labor. The independent is a failed Liberal preselection candidate so will be interesting where her preferences go.
If you are into the punt some of your picks are interesting punt wise –
eg. Sandringham $6.00 Labor, Sandringham $3.65
Good luck
I’m in agreement with Trent’s estimations of how seats will go. Labor in the mid-50’s, the Coalition in the mid-20’s, the Greens pushing through to get at least 4 seats and the rest going to Indpendents.
Unless these polling numbers are way off, that seems like what it’s going to be the result on election day.
Dr John says:
Monday, October 31, 2022 at 8:59 pm
I live in the electorate but have a bad feeling that Newbury might get back in. Newbury has more signage than I have ever witnessed here ever and virtually no Labor.
—
Even if I lived in Brighton and voted Lib, I’m not sure how I could ever vote for Newbury. He can’t even buy a suit that fits.
He seems to come from the same Man Child Academy that Tim Smith graduated from.
somethinglikethat says:
Tuesday, November 1, 2022 at 8:18 am
Even if I lived in Brighton and voted Lib, I’m not sure how I could ever vote for Newbury. He can’t even buy a suit that fits.
He seems to come from the same Man Child Academy that Tim Smith graduated from.
—
Which would appear to mean that nobody likes him as from Bernie Finn’s POV he’s “as bad as Matt Kean”
There are at least 3 retail businesses in Church St Brighton with Newbury signage in their shop windows including my free range butcher of many years.
I spoke to my butcher about remaining apolitical whilst in retail business not to mention Newbury’s links with prayer room rent boy pimping. His defence was Newbury’s wife was nice and spent plenty of $ in his shop. Anyway the sign remains but I no longer..
Dr John @ #158 Tuesday, November 1st, 2022 – 10:16 am
Democracy in action 🙂
Grime, so if the owner refused to serve Dr John that would also be democracy in action? On a side note, hat tip for Dr John for eating free range meat. Hopefully Dr John is against duck shooting and will be voting independent or Greens or AJP. Probably not AJP if Dr John enjoys eating meat.
And looks like Dr John enjoys a wager on the election. 12.0 for minority Labor government with sportsbet. Way way overs methinks. Get on it Dr John.
Jeremy I won’t be voting independent (unlike strategically Zoe Daniels May 2022) as I strongly suspect she is a definite liberal decked out in chestnut teal plumage.
Maybe support duck hunting purely for one day 26 November?
Jeremysays:
Tuesday, November 1, 2022 at 1:25 pm
And looks like Dr John enjoys a wager on the election. 12.0 for minority Labor government with sportsbet. Way way overs methinks. Get on it Dr John.
——————————–
Minority Labor would be throwing away $ when it will be a majority. Old racecourse saying ‘you can’t eat odds!’
As an aside Sportsbet has banned me!
The Brighton “independent” is absolutely a second Liberal candidate who just can’t use the logo because she lost preselection.
Can’t eat value? But you eat well when it does come in Dr John. What about tax on electric cars, logging in water catchments and old growth logging, gas exploration near twelve apostles? Labor no friend of the environment. Been to Melton lately and seen the damage never ending housing estates do? Not to mention the mental health of those inhabitants with no schools, hospitals, roads, trains. Sure, Labor better than Liberal however Greens and independents much better than the two major corrupt parties. Make your vote count and l hope you vote strategically and vote independent because that’s your best chance of not having a Liberal MP. Plus I’d love to put Brighton in the independent gain column on 26th November.
@Dr John, there was a café on Chapel St, Prahran that had some silly anti-lockdown messages and a limerick blaming Dan for Covid deaths on their windows last year. We’ve never been back. Chapel Street seems like a stupid place for a business to promote loopy right-wing populism.
Likewise, a bargain store that my mum (who is immunocompromised) used to shop at on Centre Road, Bentleigh covered its windows in UAP posters before the federal election. Needless to say she never set foot in there again and from what I can tell they have since gone out of business. Good way to repel customers!
@Jeremy, Brighton in the independent gain column would have been good if they had a proper teal or left-leaning independent instead of a current Liberal member.
Trent, rather an independent that believes in climate change and is against duck shooting that doesn’t belong to the rabid religious part of Libs.
Fairman, Grime – that’s a good point about Melton. It doesn’t surprise me that the press gallery miss the significance of the swing against Labor in Melton last time or the potential sophomore swing effect for the new MP there who has now had a term to build up personal vote.
Witness the seat of Lyons in Tasmania which nearly had a boilover in favour of the Libs at the Federal election. People didn’t really see that coming because of the margin plus assumed swing in favour of the ALP, but forgot that Labor’s vote in Lyons in 2019 was artificially strong because the Libs had to disendorse a nutter candidate mid-campaign and those sort of factors fade by the next election. Same will be true of Melton.
I’d rather the Greens so with preferential voting, that’s who I would vote for. Not a Liberal Party member. That’s the beauty of preferential voting.
I can go 1. Greens, 2. AJP, 3. Labor, 4. Unendorsed Liberal, 5. Endorsed Liberal, 6. Any anti-lockdown/freedom nutjobs.
Labor have just as much chance in Brighton as the unendorsed Liberal does, perhaps even moreso. Remember that 25% of Brighton’s voters are in Elwood, the margin is only 0.5% and that was with Labor running a 19 year old male nobody in 2018 compared to a well known progressive local female councillor from Elwood this time, and the federal swing in Elwood alone would win Brighton for Labor.
So while I’d put Greens #1, as a left-leaning voter if I lived in that seat I would much prefer Louise Crawford, a solid hard working local Port Phillip Councillor, over a failed Liberal candidate.
I don’t see any reason for Labor-leaning Brighton voters to do anything other than vote 1 Labor and put the Green then the indie ahead of the Libs. The factors that made tactical voting appropriate in Kooyong and Goldstein at the Federal election don’t exist in Brighton, Caulfield, Hawthorn – these are seats Labor can win or hold on their own account. It made sense to ensure the Federal teals finished ahead of Labor in the relevant seats but I am just not seeing anything like the same level of interest in the teals at a state level.
The Sky News RWFWs are losing their minds over the Visit Victoria sponsorship of the Australian netball team. Their whole “GoWokeGoBroke” hashtag has just died in the arse.
It’ll be an absolute meltdown on the evening of 26 Nov. I may even tune in for some laughs.
I 100% agree Arky. Kew is the only state seat that I see being comparable, and Malvern would have been too if a teal was actually running.
But Hawthorn, Caulfield, Brighton and Sandringham are already so marginal, or even held by Labor, that Labor & Greens voters really have no reason to make a “strategic” vote: just put your genuine preferences.
Regarding what I’d do if I was in Brighton, I’d only put Greens #1 because I am a Greens voter and think increased Greens representation is a good thing that helps pull Labor to the left, but I am not one who is hostile to Labor. I’m very supportive of both the federal and state Labor governments, and I actually hate the Labor v Greens wars.
I’m really enjoying seeing my local seats (Macnamara, Prahran, Albert Park) turn into ALP v GRN contests where the Liberals no longer have a chance because I’m generally pretty happy with either outcome that way. In May, Josh Burns was a pretty damn good consolation prize for Steph Hodgins-May falling short. He is a great MP.
And if the Greens were to lose Prahran (unlikely but possible), at least it would be to Labor and not the Libs.
Trent, you get good odds on Labor winning Brighton(about the same as Labor minority). I respect your opinions however you don’t seem to respect mine in the possibilities of Labor minority. You could well be right but please get the Labor blinkers off. People on this site need to hink critically not herd like cattle.
A master stroke from Dan Andrews.
For a measly $3 million per annum, He has made a positive connection with 1 000s of female voters.
Netball is the largest participation sport for many women and girls in Australia.
If a small number of Victorian netball playing and supporting women change their vote to Labor it was funding well spent.
Macca RB, how you feel about car park rorts or sports rorts???
Was that money well spent???
Jeremy,
My views and predictions have all been entirely based on psephological evidence we have: electoral map, seat count, margins, polls, redistribution effects, demographics, expected geographic based swings, candidate matchups, funding, donation laws, etc. Not feelings or preference.
Often my prediction is not even my preferred outcome, eg. Albert Park & Footscray, or a majority Labor government instead of a Labor-Greens government.
I’m looking at the evidence that we do have. Also, not once have I ever said a minority government is not possible.
In fact, you’ve responded to probably 12-15 comments of mine where I said a minority government is possible but the evidence points to a majority government being far more probable.
I’m actually not even sure what your prediction is because the whole time, when the exact point I’m arguing is that a minority government cannot be ruled out but is less probable than a majority, you have been disagreeing with me, but then in a recent comment you said yourself that a majority is more likely. Which is it?
If your view is also that a minority is possible but a majority more likely, then what exactly have you been arguing about the whole time?
I would actually say that most of your commentary has been in spite of the evidence, not supported by it, and is mostly just a platform to express your personal distaste for the government.
Responding to a thread that literally has 59-41 in its title and discussing the polling and other evidence pointing to a Labor win is not having “Labor blinkers” on. Ignoring all that evidence based on a personal opinion of the government is having anti-Labor blinkers on.
Jeremy
A Labor minority was quoted at $12 earlier today. Labor feature best at $6 in Brighton. That’s not “about the same”
And what is your opinion of a Labor minority based on? Appears pure conjecture!
No polling suggests a minority from a current high watermark of 55 seats.
Furthermore, Labor is clear betting market favourite in 53 seats.
Trent. Let’s just call the election now on your expertise. We can all understand polls and past results and margins. What a lot of people lack is critical thinking. I am totally unsure of your abilities however you seem to totally dismiss Kos Samaras’s. Why, because he is an ex ALP luvvie? He is a professional pollster yet you have no regard to anything he says from what I’ve read of your comments. Correct l do believe Labor majority the most probable result, followed closely by Labor minority and l give no creedence to any other result. Too many on this site herd together and bully anyone who dare has a different opinion, yourself included.
This ain’t a Labor propaganda site. Discuss polls. A lot on here better off on a pro Labor blog.
Kos Samaras’ polls didn’t show independents being very competitive in any of the “teal” contests until they asked the more leading follow up question, after a spiel about Monique Ryan, asking what if someone like her was running?
He has a vested interest in the teal campaigns and the polls are as much to raise their profile as they were to gauge genuine support.
Here are the results of Redbridge’s Brighton poll:
Liberal 38.8%
Labor 29.4%
Greens 9.8%
Independent 8.8%
I’m sorry but that does not translate to an IND win. It may be 50/50 between the majors depending on IND preferences.
Redbridge’s Caulfield poll:
Liberal 34.8%
Labor 31%
Greens 16%
Independent 8%
That translates to a comfortable Labor win.
Sandringham:
Labor 34.5% (first on primary vote!)
Liberal 31.4%
Independent 11.5%
Greens 11.4%
Another easy Labor win on Redbridge’s numbers.
His polls had zero evidence of a teal wave. They asked follow up questions touting Monique Ryan’s achievements then basically asking what if she was running, and even then in every seat except Kew, they finished behind Labor (albeit by a smaller margin).
The purpose of those polls wasto demonstrate that IF a good enough independent were to run, it would make a difference and possibly be competitive, by showing a ~10% difference between a Monique Ryan calibre independent and a lesser independent.
And nobody with close to Monique Ryan’s profile or resources is running. Especially in Brighton.
I still don’t understand how me literally saying over & over that I don’t vote Labor, I would love a minority Labor-Greens government, but the polls and evidence are not pointing to it, and even posting not just poll results but even analysing overlapping federal booth results, could possibly be interpreted as me “not talking about polls” and being a Labor propagandist.
If anything Labor would love talk about minority government because it drives undecided voters to them….
No Jeremy, Sports Rorts & Car Park Rorts was the typically stupid and amateurish nonsense which your LNP mates, routinely roll out.
The netball sponsorship is a small outlay which helps develop women’s sport.
Macca RB, 15 million taxpayers dollar to buy votes you said was funding well spent. I’d call that a rort. Hypocritical posters on this site. I’m guessing most are leaners and not lifters. But yes Macca RB, it was smart by Andrews regarding the $15,000,000.00 of taxpayers money. Andrews is political genius, his socialist left faction is very proud.
Jeremy says:
Tuesday, November 1, 2022 at 5:40 pm
Macca RB, 15 million taxpayers dollar to buy votes you said was funding well spent. I’d call that a rort. Hypocritical posters on this site. I’m guessing most are leaners and not lifters. But yes Macca RB, it was smart by Andrews regarding the $15,000,000.00 of taxpayers money. Andrews is political genius, his socialist left faction is very proud.
————————————
The sponsorship is by an agency that’s main function is promoting the state and since Victoria is hosting the next Commonwealth Games and the netball team is a strong gold medal chance so the deal makes sense.
Jeremy says:
Tuesday, November 1, 2022 at 4:32 pm
Trent. Let’s just call the election now on your expertise. We can all understand polls and past results and margins. What a lot of people lack is critical thinking. I am totally unsure of your abilities however you seem to totally dismiss Kos Samaras’s. Why, because he is an ex ALP luvvie? He is a professional pollster yet you have no regard to anything he says from what I’ve read of your comments. Correct l do believe Labor majority the most probable result, followed closely by Labor minority and l give no creedence to any other result. Too many on this site herd together and bully anyone who dare has a different opinion, yourself included.
——————————-
Kos is a professional pollster but that doesn’t put his analysis beyond question because there are times when he is data dependent.
…and Kos’s own polling showed the independents in distant 4th place in most of the seats they apparently have the best chance in.
8-11% is not a winning primary vote range.
As for the “lifters and leaners” comment, I despise that term. There’s no such thing.
As for the “lifters and leaners” comment, I despise that term. There’s no such thing.
Same here as is, that, somehow the assumption that un-named posters here are labor tossers makes the comment real and incontrovertible.
rort
/rɔːt/
noun
INFORMAL•AUSTRALIAN
a fraudulent or dishonest act or practice.
Only an idiot would compare legitimate corporate sponsorship with something potentially illegal.
Jeremy, at risk of you accusing me of being a bully, may I say this:
There is no evidence to support a minority government of any stripe.
Evidence may emerge, but there is none yet. 59/41 does not suggest anything other than a complete landslide.
If you have contrary evidence, please provide it. I would love to see it. Remember as Lionel Hutz demonstrates – conjecture and innuendo are not evidence.
Otherwise, and until then: ……… be nice.
Pepys
Al pal
Just catching up on your comment from a couple of days ago.
Icook foods was closed down in Feb 2019.
A year before covid came on the scene.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/hawthorn-greens-candidate-hopes-political-cycle-will-suit-him-20221101-p5buk7.html?btis
This article might help explain why independents good chance in the inner cities where Green vote high. Critical thinking, not just regurgitating polls from six months ago.
Trent, do you think Greens voters will preference Labor or an independent when a quality independent running?
A little off the Labor vote, a little off the Liberal vote, a lot off the Green vote. Independent will then surf the wave of preferences to claim the seat. Looking like a minority Labor government could be on the cards. Majority Labor still most probable result at the moment. Would love to see more polls, especially a Newspoll.
Jeremy says:
Wednesday, November 2, 2022 at 9:22 am
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/hawthorn-greens-candidate-hopes-political-cycle-will-suit-him-20221101-p5buk7.html?btis
This article might help explain why independents good chance in the inner cities where Green vote high. Critical thinking, not just regurgitating polls from six months ago.
Trent, do you think Greens voters will preference Labor or an independent when a quality independent running?
————————————-
The key word here is “political cycle” and there’s a big difference between May and now. In May the Liberals had been in office for nine years and Josh Frydenberg was a senor member of that government and this is where Trent is closer to the mark than Kos when he says that Monique Ryan was able to beat Frydenberg by winning a sizable vote from ALP and Green supporters.
This state election is held at a different stage of the political cycle with the ALP being in office for a couple of terms and normally safe seats will swing against the government and in Hawthorn the seat is held by the ALP and this is where Trent is right because ALP supporters knew they couldn’t win Kooyong but know they can win Hawthorn.
The Greens and independent will be left battling it out for third place unless the Liberal vote collapses and that will flow to the independent or to the ALP before the Greens. If this election follows the normal pattern of long term governments dropping support in safe seats then the most likely winner will be the Liberals because its normally a safe Liberal seat and the Andrews government has a strong record of progressive policies and that will act to counter the Greens and independent because if people are swinging against the Andrews government it will be to the right not to the left.
@Jeremy,9.29am
Thank you.
We would all love to see more polling, especially a Newspoll – but that isn’t going to happen.
I accuse Newspoll and Murdoch of deliberately not doing and publishing polls because the results don’t suit their narrative. They are in great pain, that save for Queensland, the general populace is applying critical thought. We are told every day how awful the Labor governments are and how wonderful the LNP is, and it does not match up with their lived experience. Hence polls massively favouring the ALP.
2019 Federal election was the last time the punters listened to the hysteria. The result was within the margin of error and Scomo and Co., promptly delivered massively incompetent government. So incompetent that they lost their core support (Liberals).
I appreciate you acknowledging the most likely result, on current polling is a Labor majority. I suggest to you the likely result on those figures (59:41) is in fact a massive win to the ALP. Of course polls can be wrong but the outer range on the margin of error still results in 56:44 against the LNP. There is nothing in that to give the LNP any succour.
My personal preference would be that the ALP and Greens grow up and learn to work together. Both sides have forgotten who their true opponents are. I would love nothing more than a formal ALP/Green coalition with a bevy of independents, but I acknowledge the data just does not support my wishful thinking. Besides neither the ALP nor the Greens are mature enough yet to make that happen. It won’t happen until it is forced on them.
The data does not currently support minority government, no matter how some may wish for it.
The current polling is 4 days old!
Have a great day!
@Jeremy, how Greens voters direct their preferences will depend on a number of factors, probably the two most important ones being the quality of the independent candidate (and their policies), and Labor’s chances of actually winning the seat.
In the federal election, Greens preferences flowing more strongly to “teals” than Labor was a combination of those things.
1. Very high quality independents with a more ambitious climate target than Labor;
2. The fact that Labor had no chance of winning those seats, so strategically, ensuring a LIB v IND contest was the best way to unseat the Liberal which was the primary goal
So, let’s just say for example I lived in Brighton.
As a Greens voter myself, I would have preferenced Zoe Daniels ahead of Labor in Goldstein in May. In fact, my mum lived in Goldstein at the time and when she was asking for advice with her postal vote, that’s exactly what I recommended to her and she did. She put 1. Greens; 2. Zoe Daniels; 3. Labor, as I would have too.
However, voting in Brighton in 24 days’ time, I would do the opposite and put 1. Greens; 2. Labor; 3. Felicity Fredrico. Why?
Because firstly, while I disagree with Labor’s EV tax (one of the reasons I am voting Greens), I also support their policy of re-establishing the SEC, and their new emissions targets are a huge improvement. I have no idea what Felicity Fredrico’s climate policies are, and Climate 200 are not even backing her campaign. I assume as a Liberal Party member she probably opposes the de-privatisation of the energy sector, which has been Greens policy for years. So in this very notable policy area, Labor are in better alignment with the Greens than the “teal”.
And secondly, Labor are competitive in the seat, as Kos Samaras’s poll indicated that it would be roughly a 50/50 ALP v LIB race with the Independent polling in single digits. So I would have no reason to make a ‘strategic’ vote for a quasi-Liberal independent, to unseat James Newbury.
If I lived in the seat of Kew, however, I would probably vote 1. Greens; 2. Sophie Torney; 3. Labor, because strategically there is a better chance of unseating the Liberals if Sophie Torney finishes higher than Labor.
Greens voters are typically very politically engaged, do their research, know their candidates and have a low rate of following HTV cards. They won’t vote as a bloc, and won’t just automatically preference the independent because they did so in May. Most Greens voters are also more supportive of state Labor than federal Labor, because of their bold social agenda, and policies like the SEC one will resonate as it aligns with the Greens’ policy.
@MABWM & Jeremy,
The good news is that I think a Newspoll may be coming later in the week. Somebody over at The Tally Room posted that they were polled by YouGov on Monday.
So look out for one coming in the next few days…
https://www.danandrews.com.au/vline
Andrew’s worried much???
Minority Labor government!!!
Trent, Greens voters tend to decide their own preferences and not follow “how to vote” cards. More intelligent and educated apparently. Thanks for the info regarding Newspoll. I’ll find that their poll will be more “accurate” than resolve and Morgan. Yes, I’m hoping for minority. l think it’s better for democracy. More checks and balances, not to mention transparency. Hope you enjoy election night, it’s going to be fascinating.
Can we play guess the Newspoll result. I’m “guessing” ALP 54/46.
ALP 37
COALITION 31
GREENS 14
INDEPENDENTS 12
OTHERS 6
One thing I’ll just state is that in a two-house system, the impact of a minority vs a majority government is probably a little overstated, because having a minority in the upper house – which is nearly always the case – provides just as many checks & balances as a minority in the lower house.
Just as an example, if you compare the following two scenarios:
Scenario A (Majority):
Labor have 45+ votes alone in lower house; Labor+Greens+Reason+AJP required for 21 votes in upper house
Scenario B (Minority);
* Labor+Greens required for 45 votes in lower house; Labor+Greens+Reason+AJP required for 21 votes in upper house
In both scenarios, Labor still need to pass legislation through the exact same bloc of parties. So a minority or majority in the lower house makes little difference in regards to checks, balances, transparency and ability to pass legislation.
Unfortunately GTV will probably deliver a messy upper house this time around but as long as 21 votes are left-leaning so any potential ‘freedom’ nutjobs don’t have any influence is all that really matters.
Obviously I’d like to see the Greens increase their presence in both houses, but an increased presence in the upper house will have more impact than the lower house because it’s more likely to help keep the RWNJs out. In the lower house it probably won’t make as much difference, even if it does result in minority government – it just means the government require the same party’s support in two houses instead of one.