The Age yesterday had a Resolve Strategic poll of Victorian state, following up on a similar poll a month ago. Labor retains a commanding lead over the Coalition of 38% to 31% on the primary vote, although this compares with 42% to 28% last time. All other players are unchanged, with the Greens on 12%, independents on 12% and others on 6%. Labor leads the Coalition 41% to 27% among women, compared with 35% apiece among men. The pollster hasn’t traditionally produced two-party results, but this one comes advertised as 59-41 to Labor. Daniel Andrews holds a 49-29 lead over Matthew Guy as preferred premier, out from 46-28 last time. A question on issue salience found “keeping the cost of living low” towering above the pack, followed by health, environment, economic management and integrity. The poll was conducted October 20 to 24 from a sample of 800.
Roy Morgan last week published results from a somewhat dated phone and online poll conducted from 1379 respondents at unspecified times during September. It showed Labor with a 60-40 lead, out from 58-42 at the last such poll in August, from primary votes of Labor 42% (up five-and-a-half), Coalition 28% (down one) and Greens 14.5% (up half), with 15.5% scattered among an array of minor party and independent options.
Differing opinions are fine but getting all pissy about being criticised for opinions not supported by polling data on a polling discussion site is pretty funny.
There is this baked in idea that the Melbourne outskirts will swing against the ALP hard like in the federal election. There will be some swing but with this consistent ALP landslide polling, maybe it’s overstated? Otherwise you would need compensatory swings elsewhere and can the ALP get additional 5-10% swings in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne? Doubtful.
Mabwm says: “Just fess up mate. You’re an LNP stooge. And posting random garbage gets a bit tiresome.”
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 12:28 pm
What’s wrong with being an LNP stooge? How many Labor “stooges” do we have on this blog (who would all still claim to be independent, critical thinkers) and somehow that’s all good, but being an (accused) LNP stooge is not OK? Are people who support the LNP not welcome on this blog?
Regards GVT, the *only* parties who currently have a policy to abolish it are the Vic Socialists and the Greens.
In terms of it being “all Labor’s fault”, it’s true that they could (and should) have made an effort this term. It’s equally true though, that removing it will require either:
a) the ALP and Greens having a combined majority in the upper house, or
b) Bipartisan support from both ALP and Libs,
because all the other randoms in there owe their parliamentary existence to it.
So… it’s really not entirely the ALP’s fault. The Libs are welcome to put up a campaign against it, but they won’t do it either.
BS Fairman:
Interesting list there. Ian Cook is probably getting his money from the same place the CEC do, and he can expect a similar vote. Being known as “slug guy” isn’t great publicity.
Hawkins (came close in Benambra) and Cupper (narrowly won Mildura) are obvious, although where’s Suzanna Sheed?
Brett Owen in Pakenham: long-term local councillor and former mayor. Independents don’t tend to do well in suburban marginal seats, although it’s a new seat with no sitting MP. Maybe he’ll come third ahead of the Greens.
Nicole Seymour in Rowville: another local councillor, in a fairly safe Lib seat. I didn’t realise Kim Wells was still around… 30 years is a while. If he wins, he could be going for Graham Gunn’s record in SA. Jacinta Allan (1999), Daniel Andrews, Lily D’Ambrosio and Peter Walsh (2002) would be the only other MPs elected within 14 years of him.
Sue Bolton in Pascoe Vale (yet again, local councillor); she’s run either state or federally a few times as some kind of socialist. Ran in Wills in May as Socialist Alliance; she got a bit over 3%, the Vic Socialists candidate got a bit under. Cue Life Of Brian joke here (even though VS seem to have it together a bit better than most socialist microparties).
Larry Zhao in Point Cook: Google says he’s “President of the Asian Business Association of Wyndham”, so he’d have a few friends with deep pockets. Joe Garra was supposed to be the one to watch, though.
Sarah Fenton in Bellarine: she’s another teal, but in a Labor seat and with a tiny fraction of the funding of the others, nah.
Why aren’t Kos Samaras views who l believe is a professional pollster not taken seriously on this site. Ex ALP. That’s right he’s no longer part of the ALP propaganda machine. Pathetic of commentators on this site to dismiss his polling. He believes Richmond, Albert Park, Hawthorn will no longer be with ALP. Can’t have that on this site. He was extremely accurate in the Federal election. And yes, if our wonderful moderator who seems to be more intelligent than most posters here combined doesn’t kick me off, I’ll be around to election and after no natter result. Grow up Labor luvvies and discuss polling instead of bullying up against anyone that doesn’t have same opinion. Lab majority most likely result but don’t rule out minority. Very good chance of that happening. And please commentators, discuss not herd. You are not cattle.
Ian Cook is as cooked as his gormless cooker mates.
Bird of paradox, please keep posting. We need more like you on this site.
Jeremy says:
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 5:44 pm
Why aren’t Kos Samaras views who l believe is a professional pollster not taken seriously on this site. Ex ALP. That’s right he’s no longer part of the ALP propaganda machine. Pathetic of commentators on this site to dismiss his polling. He believes Richmond, Albert Park, Hawthorn will no longer be with ALP. ….
**************
Jeremy, Kos may well be right about that. It’s certainly arguable. But that’s 3 seats, not the 21 you listed.
Jeremy says:
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 5:44 pm
I’ll be around to election and after no natter result.
—
Cool story bro.
Jeremy says:
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 5:44 pm
Why aren’t Kos Samaras views who l believe is a professional pollster not taken seriously on this site. Ex ALP. That’s right he’s no longer part of the ALP propaganda machine. Pathetic of commentators on this site to dismiss his polling. He believes Richmond, Albert Park, Hawthorn will no longer be with ALP. Can’t have that on this site. He was extremely accurate in the Federal election. And yes, if our wonderful moderator who seems to be more intelligent than most posters here combined doesn’t kick me off, I’ll be around to election and after no natter result. Grow up Labor luvvies and discuss polling instead of bullying up against anyone that doesn’t have same opinion. Lab majority most likely result but don’t rule out minority. Very good chance of that happening. And please commentators, discuss not herd. You are not cattle.
————————————-
There are people here that take Kos seriously and i agree with some of what he says but analysis is open to interpretation but sometimes disagree with Kos.
Albert Park was once thought about as a possible Green pick up but there doesn’t seem to be enough momentum for the Greens to pick that up.
Richmond looks the most likely Green pick up but local issues might get the ALP across the line.
Hawthorn will most likely be a Liberal or ALP win.
l see the ALP people on this site still playing the player and not the ball. Hopefully this will change.
Oh Noes’s what will taylormerde do now, boo hoos 😆
Mexicanbeemer states “anaylis is open to interpretation” when it suits him. But my God, if anyone else thinks the same out comes the Labor propaganda machine. This site should be about discussion of polls and likely outcomes. Yes, we all have different opinions on polls. Discuss, not bully. But that’s the Labor and people like Setkas way. Disappointing.
Vote independents.
Something like that.
COOL STORY BRO.
Classic bullying. Get the rest of your mates to bully me also, or are they hiding?
I think Hawthorn might fall to the “teal” or to the Liberals. John Kennedy has been a very good local member but I doubt that he has built a big enough profile to fight the large scale campaign come him from both the Teal and the Liberals. Although the Teal might not do as well as the ALP but might strip votes from the Liberals. Not a complete right off but I doubt the ALP saw it as anything other the surprise pack last time that they never expected to win anyway (they ran a guy in his 70s for starters) .
Richmond is going to be a Green/ALP contest and the Greens will benefit from two things – Not running a SWERF candidate like last time and the retirement of Richard Wynne. Last time, the results were also a bit confusing as the Liberals did not run a candidate and that might effect things too.
Additionally, both Reason and Victorian Socialists are running candidates – Reason has a fairly strong following in the area getting a fairly high 6.1% in the seat and the Socialists are regularly elected to Yarra Council. Both made steal primary vote off the Greens and then might get lost when preferencing. The Green council members have also not been covering themselves in glory of late. So all things being normal I would expect the Greens to pick up but there is a lot going on there.
Albert Park is likely to be a case where the Liberal votes will get the ALP over the line.
Jeremy says:
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 6:27 pm
Something like that.
COOL STORY BRO.
Classic bullying. Get the rest of your mates to bully me also, or are they hiding?
—
You’re a victim now? Stop posting absolute shit like probable 21 seat losses and you may be taken seriously.
Otherwise you’re just a clown.
Bird of paradox
Kim Wells and Fiona Simpson (QLD) both were first elected in 1992! Simpson is 7 years younger than Wells. Also, I notice Carol Altmann wasn’t on the list of independents who racked up donations. Hasn’t stopped her from traversing a lot of her large electorate though, she’s been to at least Portland, Terang, Macarthur, Port Fairy, and her home base of Warrnambool. Unlike last time when James Purcell and Jim Doukas were in the race (and took a combined 25%), I think all of the candidates in the electorate are based in Warrnambool.
I’ll be keeping an eye on Footscray for the Vic Socialists vote there, they’ve got a local councillor running and it’s probably their best seat in the state demographically. Might crack 10%, which would be impressive.
somethinglikethat. WTF.
Bringing the victim now stuff into this is deplorable. Do you understand what victims go through. l do hope your comment is uneducated. If not, please delete yourself from this site as the comment is highly offensive. For fucking hell(sorry moderator), get off this site. Do you understand what victims go through??? THIS IS NOT OK. Victims are humans. Sorry moderator but this statement from somethinglikethat is not warranted. Ban him or her.
What I will be banning is any continuation of this argument.
GodlessHeathen. Yep the votes will end up with Greens. Hope socialists get 10% plus.
Jeremy:
About the only practical thing you provide is a counterpoint. You well know that the Andrews’ Government will romp home.
On another subject, I’ve been working on Wikipedia these past few weeks, particularly filling up results for individual electorates back to 1911 as well as historical by-elections.
One interesting one that stood out was the 1923 Daylesford by-election. On the first count, the Labor candidate James McDonald won over the Nationalist candidate Roderick McLeod by 2 votes (2138 to 2136), but there was an investigation and recount that made McLeod the winner by 5 votes (2125 to 2120).
At the time, it was very significant because it was a minority Nationalist government (holding 31 of 65 seats) with Labor holding 21, the Country party holding 12 and 1 Independent (Ex-National Labor James McLachlan of Gippsland North).
I’m not exactly sure of the details since it was so long ago and archives only help so much, but it seems like something of a unique electoral situation where it seems the Labor MP was seated in the assembly, but after an investigation and recount, the result was nullified and the opponent was seated instead.
In the long term it didn’t matter because the next election happened in 1924 and Labor gained Daylesford on a more decisive margin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_district_of_Daylesford#Elections_in_the_1920s
Moderator. Please understand the hurt of victim blaming. It’s not right that people on your site use this slur. Understand the hurt this causes. Please everyone, educate yourselves.
Kirksdale – Have tried looking at the newspapers on Trove about what went on?
GodlessHeathen says:
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 7:01 pm
I’ll be keeping an eye on Footscray for the Vic Socialists vote there, they’ve got a local councillor running and it’s probably their best seat in the state demographically. Might crack 10%, which would be impressive.
—
As a Footscray resident, i’ve watched with amusement Jorquera since he was elected to Maribyrnong Council. He’s a divisive character – he’s either a woke idiot or a very welcome ally.
The best I’ve got is this one from The Argus.
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/1994397
I’m curious why it was accepted at just a recount and wasn’t sent to another by-election, like Mundingburra in the Queensland 1995 election when the results were too close to be accepted. Probably because it was already a by-election?
A similar situation happened in Ripon at the 2018 Victorian state election where Labor won the first count, but the Liberals won the recount and everything seemed to be settled there. I’m just curious about the circumstances as to what happens in certain close elections.
I was wondering when someone wold mention Footscray. The only thing stopping the Greens from coming second on primaries in 2018 was their candidate imploding mid-campaign, and they still would’ve made the 2cp if the VEC had bothered to count it. (They don’t seem to bother with a proper preference count when someone wins on primaries.) The AJP got 7.6% – a lot of that would’ve been from the Greens, and it would’ve closed the 1.8% gap to the Libs pretty easily.
The Greens would quite likely win the seat based on federal figures from May – they cracked 40% in a couple of booths, and VS got over 10% in a couple as well. I might throw that into a spreadsheet…
You’re right about the Greens imploding last election. As it happens I know the Greens candidate for Footscray quite well. She’s an architect who designed my house renovation works which are nearing completion.
From the numbers in Footscray, the sitting Labor member Katie Hall seems to be very popular, she’s a new member that was elected in 2018 on a 12% primary vote swing, so even if the Greens come second this time, they’ll have to get a big chunk out of Hall’s 57% primary vote first.
I’m not saying it can’t happen, but the “sophomore surge” is often a thing, and that’ll be something additional that they’ll have to overcome if they’re in with a chance of winning Footscray.
Correcting myself, the redistribution has made it that Labor’s primary vote is 55%. And I’ll concede that Footscray 2022 is a moderately changed electorate from Footscray 2018, losing its heavily industrial Western suburbs like Tottenham and Sunshine West and gaining more gentrified inner west suburbs like Seddon and Yarraville, but still, unless it swings big to the Greens and they scoop up Liberal preferences, it’s still a very likely Labor retain.
The ALP versus Greens margin is around 20% in Footscray, based on the 2018 votes. The margin was probably inflated a bit by the Greens` candidate issues in Footscray, so presuming that the Greens don`t have the equivalent candidate issues this time, that should reduce the ALP`s margin a bit.
Without Liberal Preferences I suspect that the ALP versus Greens margin will be around 10% after this election.
Lobster Guy 2 – The Return – not looking like it’s going to be received well.
Maybe third time lucky? Probably not after he makes absolutely no inroads in the next election.
Katie Hall is popular. A very active and visible local member. The margin will shrink, but she’s safe.
OK, here we go. 11 booths from Fraser (east of Ashley St), plus the Footscray PPVC. 29,717 votes all up.
ALP 39.4
Grn 26.7
Lib 20.8
VS 6.8
UAP 2.4
LDP 2.1
ON 1.8
Definite ALP/Grn 2cp – the Greens would get enough VS prefs that the Libs couldn’t catch them on minor right prefs. Greens top scored with 43% at Footscray Central and 40.3% at Yarraville Central; VS 11.9% at Footscray and 10.1% at Footscray Central. (With a 55% Grn/VS vote and the Libs below 10%, that makes Footscray Central one of the most left-wing booths in Australia.)
Assuming the Libs go two-thirds to Labor, VS 75% to the Greens and the minor right half each way (last and/or second last): that gives an ALP 2cp of 58%. Less close than I’d thought.
Take out the PPVC (which could’ve come from anywhere in Fraser, hence the weaker Green vote), and it becomes: ALP 38.4, Grn 32.5, Lib 16.5, VS 6.3, other right 6.3. The above assumptions of prefs give an ALP 2cp of 54%.
Meanwhile, at the other end of Fraser: Labor copped a 17% 2pp swing at St Albans North! Sure, it’s an outlier, but that’s an example of why Labor can’t afford to take the outer western suburbs for granted.
From what I can gather in Labor vs. Greens electorates with a running Liberal candidate, it’s mostly the case that if the Greens were to win, they have to defeat Labor in the primary vote before they’re in with a chance. This was the case in Melbourne, Brunswick, Balmain, Newtown and South Brisbane. In Northcote, the Greens beat Labor in primary votes in the by-election in 2017 (where a Liberal did not run), but Labor beat the Greens in the primary vote in the 2018 election and won it back.
From the estimated primary vote numbers in the new Footscray electorate, Labor is on 54.8% and the Greens are on 20.2%. It would have to be a swing exceeding 15% from Labor to Greens for it to be competitive.
I was wondering when someone would mention Footscray, because Fraser offered a very deceptive result. I don’t even think it was a top 10 result for the Greens on first preference percentage. Literally all the best parts of the Fraser electorate for the Greens were dropped into Footscray. St. Albans and Sunshine behaved completely differently (but not even, because they also swung heavily against ALP, just for the Liberals). Those booths often had low 10’s and even single digits for the Greens. And by the way, the electorate of Fraser ALSO had a sophomore, but the only parties surging in the Footscray portion were the Greens and the Socialists.
Regarding Albert Park it’s a similar situation. In fact the gap on primary votes between ALP and Greens there is a whopping 27%, very difficult to overcome in one election.
The gap between Greens & Liberals was only about 14% so they’re more likely to overtake them.
Overlapping federal results were 33% Labor, 32% Greens and 26% Liberal, but I don’t expect the Greens to do as well at the state election. Over the last decade they have typically done anywhere between 5-10% worse at the nearest booths compared to what they get federally in Ports/Macnamara. Eg. Their 2018 Albert Park results were 5-10% worse than both the 2016 & 2019 results in the nearest Ports/Macnamara booths. I don’t see any reason a new state candidate would outperform Steph Hodgins-May who was a phenomenal candidate and built up her profile since 2016. Especially with a random independent in the mix who might take some of the non-major vote.
I also live in St Kilda and haven’t seen any Greens campaign yet in the part that’s in Albert Park (lots of Sam Hibbins on the Prahran side), a big contrast to the massive federal campaign in the area. Huge billboards, posters and corflutes everywhere!
I expect second place will be very close between Greens & Liberals but Labor will likely stay in front despite a negative swing, considering the Liberals clearly won’t outpoll them (they’ll go backwards too) and the Greens are 27% behind.
Yeah, Albert Park over the years seems to be more of a 3-way electorate, like Prahran (Vic), Maiwar (Qld) and Ballina (NSW). I don’t know how things will go there, but I’ll keep an eye on the results there of how similar seats might turn in the future.
It’s different to Footscray, in that its sitting member Martin Foley is retiring, so the reverse of the sophomore surge would apply there. So that would probably be a more important seat to watch on election night.
I predict in Albert Park:
* About a -8% ALP swing (~35%)
* About a +9% Greens swing (~25%)
* About a -4% Liberal swing (~27%)
* About 8% for the IND from the market
* 5% for others (most likely AJP and Reason)
After IND & minor preferences, the Greens & Liberals would be very tight for second place in the 3CP count.
Interesting note: on overlapping federal results, the Liberals did better in Albert Park which they have never won, than they did in Prahran which they won as recently as 2010. The boundary change (loss of Toorak) would have contributed to that but it still shows how rapidly Prahran has changed. From a 44% Liberal primary vote in 2014 (when they narrowly lost), to an overlapping primary vote of only 23% this May. What a turnaround. And I expect they won’t do much better than that in 4 weeks (maybe 25-26%).
In order for the Green vote to go up significantly enough to cause problems for the ALP in areas outside of where they have already been in close contests (Melbourne, Brunswick, Northcote, Richmond, Prahran), they will need to have oxygen in the election campaign.
And with the current Victorian media situation, that is probably not going to happen. They seem to be very distracted the various Independents run as well as the main contest and the Greens leadership is not very charismatic in headlines grabbing way. As a result they won’t get oxygen to the fire.
And – sorry William going a little off the topic of Victoria – why the greens got oxygen in Queensland at the federal election was because they were able to tap into the alternative Teal narrative where there were no teal candidates. In Victoria, that same narrative is being put but there are Teal candidates running – so why buy the Pepsi when Coke is available – except I like Pepsi….. ok… bad analogy.
And I suspect you will find dummy “teal” candidates running in a few spots too encouraged by the local ALP to distract potential Green voters.
@Trent
From either of those outcomes, Labor would likely win, because most Greens voters prefer Labor over Liberal, and most Liberal voters prefer Labor over Greens. At least going by past results.
Still, if those are the results, it would be interesting to see how they flow in actuality.
Definitely Kirksdale, totally agree. That’s why I don’t think the Greens have a realistic chance despite all the hype about it being a target.
Antony Green says the following on his ABC guide, which I agree with:
“Using booths from Macnamara that lie within Albert Park, the first preference results were Labor 33%, Greens 32%, Liberals 26% and Others 9%. A repeat of those numbers would still elect Labor but on Liberal preferences. A Green victory, as in neighbouring Prahran, requires Labor to fall into third place during the the count, which would not have happened on the Federal results.”
The difference in Prahran is that the Greens are much more likely to be in first place this time, and if their lead is big enough and Lib preferences aren’t too strong for Labor (say under 65%) they may even withstand an ALP v GRN count if the Liberals finish third.
For example on overlapping federal numbers in Prahran – 38% GRN, 30% ALP, 23% LIB – you would assume the 3CP might have been something like 41% GRN, 32% ALP and 27% LIB and they’d only have needed 33% of the LIB preferences to win.
Please stop the ridiculous Labor Greens Wars says:
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 5:22 pm
Mabwm says: “Just fess up mate. You’re an LNP stooge. And posting random garbage gets a bit tiresome.”
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 12:28 pm
What’s wrong with being an LNP stooge? How many Labor “stooges” do we have on this blog (who would all still claim to be independent, critical thinkers) and somehow that’s all good, but being an (accused) LNP stooge is not OK? Are people who support the LNP not welcome on this blog?
___________________________________
Be an LNP stooge – go for it – but ‘fess up! Don’t just post stupid garbage all the time pretending you are something you are not.
It is boring.
@Trent
Yeah, I agree. Prahran is likely a Green retain. From what I’ve heard, they’ve done enough local political groundwork there to stay ahead in primary votes and therefore win the seat.
Jeremy says:
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 1:56 pm
Steven Fielding from family first was elected to the Senate instead of a Green because of Labor.
________________________________
Absolutely true Jeremy. And I can tell you that was the last time I ever let a party determine my preferences. I am still angry about that. I fill in every box below the line to make absolutely sure my vote does not go to such people.
Indeed as punishment I have voted Green then ALP in every ballot since.
Agree Kirksdale.
Opposite to Albert Park there’s good reason to believe the Greens could outperform their federal result in Prahran for a number of reasons.
Then on top of that, I think both LIB and ALP will go backwards, LIB moreso but without an increase in the ALP vote it makes it harder for the LIB to fall to third, so I actually think it will remain a GRN v LIB contest anyway, in which case it would be a clear cut result on the night for a change!
Regarding the ground campaign, I was on Chapel St today. Sam Hibbins posters EVERYWHERE around Windsor & Prahran. They are all over the St Kilda end of the seat too, including corflutes in apartment windows.
Not a single ALP or Liberal sign anywhere to be seen.
Jeremy bullying allegation reminded me something similar happening in Federal parliament. Didn’t someone alleged that against the PM? 🙂
@Ven
Absolutely.
It is a play straight from the Trump/Republican play book.
The LNP looked idiotic. I note Bridget Archer wasn’t in that photo.