The Age yesterday had a Resolve Strategic poll of Victorian state, following up on a similar poll a month ago. Labor retains a commanding lead over the Coalition of 38% to 31% on the primary vote, although this compares with 42% to 28% last time. All other players are unchanged, with the Greens on 12%, independents on 12% and others on 6%. Labor leads the Coalition 41% to 27% among women, compared with 35% apiece among men. The pollster hasn’t traditionally produced two-party results, but this one comes advertised as 59-41 to Labor. Daniel Andrews holds a 49-29 lead over Matthew Guy as preferred premier, out from 46-28 last time. A question on issue salience found “keeping the cost of living low” towering above the pack, followed by health, environment, economic management and integrity. The poll was conducted October 20 to 24 from a sample of 800.
Roy Morgan last week published results from a somewhat dated phone and online poll conducted from 1379 respondents at unspecified times during September. It showed Labor with a 60-40 lead, out from 58-42 at the last such poll in August, from primary votes of Labor 42% (up five-and-a-half), Coalition 28% (down one) and Greens 14.5% (up half), with 15.5% scattered among an array of minor party and independent options.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Victorian politics. The general discussion thread continues here.
Possible Green seats. Melbourne, Brunswick, Prahan, Albert Park, Richmond, Northcote. (SIX).
Possible “teal”seats. Kew, Mornington, Hawthorn, Caulfield, Brighton, Sandringham, Box Hill. (SEVEN)
Possible “country” independents. Shepparton, Mildura, Benambra, SW Coast. (FOUR)
Possible “red wall” seats. Melton, Point Cook, Werribee. (THREE).
Only seat that voters see Andrews on voting ballet, go SLUGMAN. Mulgrave. (ONE).
TWENTY ONE Possible crossbenchers.
Have l missed any, maybe Bellarine, Morwell, Footscray or Ovens Valley.
Another poll suggesting Victorian Labor is set to equal if not exceed its 2018 landslide.
LOL Taylormade
Assuming the Independent figure of 12% is concentrated In targeted seats, the odds of the Teals in places like Kew and Hawthorne must be looking pretty good.
With exactly four weeks to election day and Labor well ahead with unpopular Liberal leaders at State and Federal (stay away) levels, how do the Liberals win? Will they go further backwards? On these numbers you would think Labor could pick up more than three.
From here Andrew’s campaign bus would have to run over a small child to lose.
After Western Australia, is Victoria the next State where the Liberal party will virtually disappear from the state parliament?
If so, who is Dutton going to blame?…. The “Victorian African gangs” that seem to always attract his attention?
“Socrates says:
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 7:19 am
….From here Andrew’s campaign bus would have to run over a small child to lose.”
… and do so intentionally!
Cheer up, Victorian Liberals, don’t forget that 76% of the seats you hold at the moment are hanging on a 5% margin or less….
…. Sleep well…. if you can.
Isn’t this poll trending towards the Coalition?
Trend is your friend with four weeks remaining.
If the trend continues we are looking at low to mid 30’s for Labor, Coalition and others. And l reckon that will end up as minority Labor government. Go to sportsbet and get 12.0. That will make election night very enjoyable.
Jeremy, there’s no trend. All the polls are coming up in the high fifties range for the government and they rattle around a bit. Matt Guy has no friends in Victoria, not even a trend. They don’t even seem to have prepared for an election campaign, it’s as if they were caught by surprise by the fixed election date.
For the 2022 Victorian State election, early voting will:
start on Monday 14 November.
Looking forward to it.
Jeremy, keep up your good work for the LNP propaganda department.
A slight dip from 60 – 40%, 2pp voting intention to 59 – 41% will not have any marked affect upon the Victorian result.
I’ll agree, from up here – north of Sydney, that there are a number of low margin seats (11) worth watching on election night, below a 1% margin: 4 ALP, 5 LP and 1 Independent.
However, based on raw numbers 59%, if realised, would see the ALP increase its majority by potentially 11 seats.
Jeremy, you’re either a troll or delusional.
Socrates, there’s simply no way “Independents” are going to score 12% (PS they only scored 5.3% in May): there aren’t enough of them! It’s just a feature / bug of Resolve’s polling that it always gives ridiculously high readings for (unidentified) “Independents” because it offers them as an option in every seat. The only reason their final poll in May got so close was that they had finally stopped doing it.
The Herald Sun, The Age, Commercial TV and 3AW have devoted the last 2 and a half years to trying to bring down Dan Andrews and his government, not at all successfully it would seem according to the current polling. Another sign that media influence on election results is waning in Australia?
Says a lot too that a very weak Liberal Party opposition relies on the media to prop them up.
So some on here want South Australia under Playford replicated in Victoria
Simply, the 2PP vote signals another landslide return of the Party polling at or near 60%
And that is ahead of ICAC moving on from the “low hanging fruit” of branch stacking by investigating other matters it has signalled it will investigate (so the Liberal Party)
So don’t expect any change in the Party occupying the Treasury benches on Spring Street for the foreseeable future
The Liberal Party make much of the matters THEY refer to ICAC – including after ICAC dismiss the Liberal Party allegations (ie “Red Shirts” where the ALP paid the proportion of wage for time spent on campaign matters and not electoral matters – then paying 100% when ICAC raised the possibility of an incorrect calculation and that that possibility was not transparent so not the look you want. So matter resolved heeding the comment of ICAC, the ALP paying 100% of the wage. But still the Liberals bang on)
This is all with the media in Victoria, so Stokes, Costello and Murdoch being so pro Liberal and anti Labor both electronically and in print
The idealogy of austerity delivering confidence and that confidence trickling down, which is at the core of the right wing parties, is now in full focus in the UK where the ideology saw a government proposing to borrow to fund tax cuts for high income earners
No doubt some in other Nations, plus in Victoria, are taking note of what is core Conservative ideology
Plus the most effective form of regulation being self regulation – playing out in the energy market with consumers the chaff
Look at the Howard trenchant criticism of a WA government introducing reservation likening WA to South American regimes – and the threats of big business to the then WA Labor government
Many will be noting these events
And, at last, forming opinion of who the Liberal Party “govern” for exclusively, at both State and Federal level
Hence 60/40 polling and landslide results
@Socrates
The 12% “independent” isn’t concentrated anywhere, this polling question is put to the pollee as a hypothetical. A lot of them are in seats without any realistic independent.
That said, Kew might go teal since the Monique Ryan story has made the locals aware it’s possible. Probably not e.g. Hawthorn or Caulfield though.
“Felix the Cassowary says:
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 7:57 am
…..Matt Guy has no friends in Victoria, not even a trend. They don’t even seem to have prepared for an election campaign, it’s as if they were caught by surprise by the fixed election date.”
Ha, ha, ha… Great punchline, Felix: The Lobster being “caught by surprise by the fixed election date.”
Indeed, it looks just like that.
Some light reading with your morning coffee from The Age this morning.
I keep picturing Snowflakes chances.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/will-hawthorn-go-back-to-blue-remain-red-or-could-teal-lightning-strike-again-20221017-p5bqel.html
Labor down 4% on primary, Coalition up 3% on primary, others no change. That suggests to me that since last resolve, approximately a month ago, Labor is losing ground and Coalition is making ground up. Am l missing something Felix the Cassowary???
Would love to see a Newspoll. Anyone know when/if we’ll get one???
Jeremy says:
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 10:12 am
Labor down 4% on primary, Coalition up 3% on primary, others no change. That suggests to me that since last resolve, approximately a month ago, Labor is losing ground and Coalition is making ground up. Am l missing something Felix the Cassowary???
——————–
If you have a look at the 2018 Victorian state election result , yes Labor Primary is down , so is the lib/nats combined primary vote 35% in 2018
The lib/nats are not going to gain seats with a decline in the combined primary vote of 4%
@ Jeremy: There is no trend. It just random variation and statistical noise.
Labor’s primary vote in the last 4 resolve polls as has been:
Jan: 41%
Apr: 37% (-4%)
Sep: 42% (+5%)
Oct: 38% (-4%)
And in the last 4 Roy Morgan polls
July: 43.5%
Aug: 40.5% (-3%)
Sep: 36.5% (-4%)
Oct: 42% (+5.5%)
Got a letter box drop approved by Kirralie Smith, Gender Awareness Australia Ltd. Level 11 456 Lonsdale Street, Melbourne Victoria 3000.
Informing me “Gender transition without parental consent is Daniel Andrews Labor Policy”.
I am really starting to find attempts to start culture wars offensive.
https://connectonline.asic.gov.au/RegistrySearch/faces/landing/bySearchId.jspx?searchId=630230438&searchIdType=BUSN&_adf.ctrl-state=8wi0oy1l7_32
Gender Awareness Australia seem to have made a bit of a splash in the alphabet community and nothing more.
https://www.starobserver.com.au/news/national-news/anti-marriage-equality-org-rebrands-as-anti-trans-group-binary-australia/173664
“Jeremy says:
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 10:12 am
Labor down 4% on primary, Coalition up 3% on primary, others no change. That suggests to me that since last resolve, approximately a month ago, Labor is losing ground and Coalition is making ground up. Am l missing something Felix the Cassowary???”…
Yes, what you are missing Jeremy is that two datapoints a trend do not make!
You need to study more statistics and less propagandology, mate….
“Hornberger says:
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 10:41 am
@ Jeremy: There is no trend. It just random variation and statistical noise.”
Statistics Hornberger?… I think that poor Jeremy is allergic to it. Don’t even mention it when he is around, the pixels jump from his computer screen right to his skin and produce an unbearable rash….
frednk @ #24 Saturday, October 29th, 2022 – 10:47 am
So basically “god botherer’s” under another banner to fit the occasion.
Like the coalition they don’t seem to get that most of the general population has seen through their despicable wretched behaviors to save us all from ourselves and allow the rich to pass through the eye of the needle.
I keep seeing online chatter that Dan Andrews may be in trouble in Mulgrave, but I have yet to see anything that goes beyond wishful thinking. Have I missed something? Is there any actual evidence, i.e poling, that there is any issue there? Certainly betting markets aren’t interested.
Matt31;
I think protest voters are just trying to create a story for publicity’s sake, talk goes back a long time IIRC.
Matt31, Betting markets definitely interested. Mulgrave independent(presumably SLUGMAN, aka Cook) into 5.50 with TAB and 8.00 with sportsbet. Or Mulgtave could be firming because it’s the only electorate that punters(constituency) can put Andrews last. Big anti Dan vote out in the ‘burbs, not so in inner city. Fascinating election.
Mulgrave is not a serious risk with those state wide figures. Andrew’s first party vote last time was 56% and the electorate has shifted south and to the west in slightly more friendly territory too. The calculated margin is 15% which means that 3 out of 20 people who previously voted for him (or another Labor candidate in the newly added areas) have to decide they no longer want to be in the seat of Premier.
The Independent “Mr Slug” Ian Cook is getting a lot of attention from the media as a novelty item but there is likely to be all sorts of novelty candidates that they going to be fixated on in coming four weeks. That said, Cook has raised at least $25k in disclosed donations so far, so he will have enough cash to print how to vote cards and posters etc. But who is he going to attract to his cause? Pre-existing Liberal voters and even then the appeal a man who “allegedly” ran a dirty catering company supplying meals to old age homes and hospitals that caused a death from listeria is somewhat limited.
* The Supreme court yesterday threw out his claims that the Slug found in his catering company was planted by council health inspectors.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/judge-throws-out-caterers-attempt-to-air-further-allegations-in-slug-gate-case-20221028-p5btue.html
Matt31, 10% return on your money(bookies take a huge cut) in a month not that bad for most on this site that believe Dan is the man. Am sure some of the commentators on here have a shrine in their living room of Dan. Reminding me of the Federal election in 2019 when they certain Labor going to win. Quite sad really. They really do have faith. I also believe Labor will be in government, l just think it’s likely to be a minority Labor government.
Oh Dear Mr bleating troll, I hope you are paying a subscription to be on this site.
You need to google margin of error some time. Then google trend. Then have a good lie down. You make Monty python’s black knight look down right pessimistic. The best gerrymander in the world would struggle to turn 60/40 into a minority government.
Is there a jeremymander I do not know about?
If you are aware of some catastrophic polling error or cause thereof, please share it. Otherwise, ……………… forever hold your peace.
Just fess up mate. You’re an LNP stooge. And posting random garbage gets a bit tiresome.
Yawn.
Jeremy @ #30 Saturday, October 29th, 2022 – 11:53 am
Fascinating is right,like most god botherers and antivaxers nobody halfway sane can figure out what the hell these pale pull-throughs(test tube cleaners) are on about.Their reality is based somewhere in another galaxy where they should all be far far away.
All of the chat is missing the interesting part of the election, which is the upper house.
The Viclotto GTV could see snowballs flying all over the place from the “freedom” nutjobs.
Regards a few comments further up about the “Gender Awareness” leaflets, that’s the same group as Binary Australia who were listed as a hate group a few weeks ago innit?
And the reason we have an absolutely joke of an upper house Expat? Because of Labor refusing to make it democratic. Corruption reeks in both major parties.
To be fair, both major parties have been bipartisan in opposing the GTV reforms, and for obvious reasons the micro parties who were elected because of it have mostly opposed them too. Even Fiona Patten who is probably the best cross-bencher Victoria has ever had has only opposed paying the preference whisperer but not GTV itself. Only the Greens have consistently pushed to reform it.
I think most importantly, an education campaign just needs to happen that tells voters they only need to number a minimum of 5 below the line, not every box. That will make a lot more voters likely to vote below the line. And parties like the Greens should do that on their HTV cards too, put 5 numbers BTL as a recommendation.
The VEC ads should really be pushing that as well, don’t even mention the 1 above the line, just take the initiative and advertise the benefits of putting 5 below the line. I don’t think it would be political or partisan to do so, it would be a public service.
If this poll is accurate then its possible the ALP will hold most of its marginals like Hawthorn then adds Brighton and for a shock Berwick and this would be a shock because most people are assuming there is a massive anti-Dan vote just waiting to smash him but at the last election people expected the ALP to lose Cranbourne so much so the Liberals shifted resources from their campaign in Ringwood to Cranbourne only for the ALP to win Cranbourne easily and pick up Ringwood.
Just putting 5 below the line as a policy for the greens would deliver the upper house to the libs. Most green voters are disaffected, but usually intelligent Labor voters. The vast majority of green votes usually filter back through to the ALP. Hopefully they think things through and don’t allow their votes to exhaust and inadvertently deliver the right wing reactionary fossil fuel fundy Christian party power through the back door.
The ALP and greens have to learn to work together, not cannibalise each other.
On the Money front – I have been looking at donation disclosures from the VEC. This covers everything donated above a cumulative $1080, so not all donations.
Of the Independents, “teal” type candidates that have raised a lot are:
Kate Lardner $98.7k (Mornington)
KEW INDEPENDENTS PTY LTD $93.7k (who are backing Sophie Torney in Kew)
Hawthorn Independents $84.2k (backing Melissa Lowe in Hawthorn)
Rochel Nomi Kaltmann $62.3k (Caulfield)
Sophie Torney $39.3k (Kew)
Of the others:
Ian Cook $25k (Mulgrave)
Jacqui Hawkins $16k (Benambra)
Ali Cupper $14.1k (Mildura)
Brett Owen $11.3k (Pakenham)
Nicole Seymour $8k (Rowville)
Susanne Bolton $7.1k (Pascoe Vale)
Larry Zhao $6k (Point Cook)
Sarah Fenton $5.8k (Bellarine)
All the rest have disclosued less than $5k. That doesn’t mean that they haven’t raised that much, it just means they haven’t got large donations yet.
To run a full on campaign costs a lot more than people think. Compared to the amount that was spent on federal election, where Monique’s Ryan’s Campaign in Kooyong was rumoured to have cost almost a $1 million (over about 2.5 state seats), we are not seeing the same amount of cash in this state election.
Steven Fielding from family first was elected to the Senate instead of a Green because of Labor. Absolutely disgraceful we had him as senator for six years, but watch the Labor luvvies on this site defend Labor to the hilt. It really is quite entertaining to see most of the commentators on this site fall into line irrespective of what Labor has done. Labor is good, others are bad. Reminds me of the pigs in Animal Farm by George Orwell.
I don’t see any Labor supporters on this site defending their decision to retain GTV, you must be imagining that.
GTV is universally loathed on here.
Great to see Jeremy’s trolling has migrated seamlessly from the last Vic thread to this one.
Only four more weeks of his tiresome crap.
Jeremy
Steven Fielding from family first was elected to the Senate instead of a Green because of Labor. Absolutely disgraceful we had him as senator for six years, but watch the Labor luvvies on this site defend Labor to the hilt. It really is quite entertaining to see most of the commentators on this site fall into line irrespective of what Labor has done. Labor is good, others are bad. Reminds me of the pigs in Animal Farm by George Orwell.
—————————————–
The Andrews government has its faults but the Liberals have failed to connect with the electorate and make the case for change but continues with the delusion of some large untapped reactionary regressive base that just does not exist beyond a handful of areas.
I love Jeremy’s prediction of 21 cross-benchers as evidence of a Labor minority government.
Even though 5 of them are already held by the crossbench, 7 are held by the Coalition, and the remaining 9 include 4 seats that independents or Greens either have next to no chance in or don’t even have well known Independents running in:
Mulgrave – LOL the dodgy businessman who was charged with supplying unhygenic food to aged care homes has zero chance, most of his support are just the nutty anti-lockdown mob from across the state who don’t even live in the seat.
Albert Park – The Greens have next to no chance. Yes they’ll improve a lot but their best chance of making a 2CP count is to overtake the Liberals, not Labor. That makes it an ALP v GRN contest that Labor would comfortably win on Lib preferences. Antony Green basically says as much in his own analysis and considers Labor very safe. Even on federal numbers that would have been the outcome, and the Greens won’t match their federal result in Albert Park (unlike Prahran).
Box Hill – I had to look up whether Independents had even declared because there has been zero talk of independents in that seat. There are two. Neither are high profile, they’ll split the IND vote, and an independent without sufficient profile or momentum will never make the 2CP.
Werribee – See above, much the same applies. The independent is unknown with no profile or momentum. With Dr Garra running in Point Cook instead and the Liberals putting effort in, Werribee will revert to ALP v LIB.
So that reduces your prediction to 5 ALP held seats where a Green or Independent may have a genuine chance. They could very well win 3-4 of them but that’s far from minority for a government with a notional 13 seat cushion.
Keep wishing though!
I have to say, for someone who is clearly a pretty hardline right-wing / “freedom” voter (you’d have to be to support the slug guy) it’s interesting that you’re rooting for a Labor-Greens government that would be even more left wing than the current Labor government. It seems like those hoping for a minority somehow think Labor would have to deal with their right-wing freedom wackos, and forget they’d have the support of at least 3 Greens instead.
Ah poor Jeremy, fancy bringing in a tale of woe from the Senate into a discussion on the Victorian state election.
Like most voters including myself he probably hasn’t got the foggiest idea as to how the Victorian upper house votes are tallied.
However having said that the two have something in common,they are both filled with Unrepresentative Swill of that I do know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cG1khlbqI9k
There is no evidence of a trend against Labor in Victoria at this time. None. Zilch. 0.0. One data point does not equal a trend, it equals one data point. Even then, that one data point, the Resolve Strategic poll, still comes out at 59-41, a swing to the government, which if it happens would be incredible given the landslide achieved in 2018. Dan Andrews has been the subject of the most relentless media campaign against him that I can remember, admittedly, I was not around for the Whitlam government. Yet, the government he leads is going to be returned once again with a thumping majority. As for the upper house, I wouldn’t even try to guess how that will fall with the dreaded group voting still in play.
Trent, you as bad as most of the other commentators on here. Even you have stated previously that a good chance Libs will preference the Greens on how to vote cards. You should put your house or unit(presuming you own it) on Labor for Albert Park. You can get 1.28 after the bookies take their cut. Easy money for you. But no, you’ll, like most on this site like to be with others of like mind and stay in your little world and take offence with any others that have a different opinion. This blog is about polls l thought, not an ALP love fest. And on a side note, minority government is good for democracy. We need some checks and balances and transparency when it comes to taxpayers money, although most on here are probably leaners and not lifters. By the way, l would consider myself progressive on most issues. Duck shooting, equality, no logging native forests, no fracking/gas exploration near twelve apostles etc etc. Labor are no friend of the environment, they are friends of Setka and the like. Love public transport but the suburban loop is the biggest white elephant. Will cost over 100 billion so a few can travel from Box Hill to Sunshine. Wastefull of tax dollars. But if you don’t pay tax you think $$$ fall from sky. Go Teals and Greens and any independent that cares about their community and not how to screw their constituency for their own benefit. Sooner people realise Lab, Lib, Nats are corrupt the better.
I think Trent wall always fall behind his ALP luvvies, even though he states he is a Green voter. Start advocating for the Greens and maybe those with an ounce of intelligence will believe what you write. This site should be about discussion of polls, not ganging up on anyone who not ALP luvvie.
Cheers all.
Jeremy says: “This site should be about discussion of polls, not ganging up on anyone who not ALP luvvie.”
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 4:54 pm
Totally agree Jeremy. The main general threads in particular these days are completely hijacked by pro-Labor acolytes who jump down the throats of anyone who dares question or criticise Labor, irrespective of whether the criticism is from a progressive or conservative standpoint. I don’t necessarily agree with everything you’ve been predicting so far, but it’s refreshing to have someone offer an alternative perspective. I just hope you still stand by your comments on election night and own them if you get them wrong, unlike other posters prior to the federal election whose assumptions and predictions were proven completely wrong and could never really admit it.