Resolve Strategic: 59-41 in Victoria

Another poll suggesting Victorian Labor is set to equal if not exceed its 2018 landslide.

The Age yesterday had a Resolve Strategic poll of Victorian state, following up on a similar poll a month ago. Labor retains a commanding lead over the Coalition of 38% to 31% on the primary vote, although this compares with 42% to 28% last time. All other players are unchanged, with the Greens on 12%, independents on 12% and others on 6%. Labor leads the Coalition 41% to 27% among women, compared with 35% apiece among men. The pollster hasn’t traditionally produced two-party results, but this one comes advertised as 59-41 to Labor. Daniel Andrews holds a 49-29 lead over Matthew Guy as preferred premier, out from 46-28 last time. A question on issue salience found “keeping the cost of living low” towering above the pack, followed by health, environment, economic management and integrity. The poll was conducted October 20 to 24 from a sample of 800.

Roy Morgan last week published results from a somewhat dated phone and online poll conducted from 1379 respondents at unspecified times during September. It showed Labor with a 60-40 lead, out from 58-42 at the last such poll in August, from primary votes of Labor 42% (up five-and-a-half), Coalition 28% (down one) and Greens 14.5% (up half), with 15.5% scattered among an array of minor party and independent options.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

254 comments on “Resolve Strategic: 59-41 in Victoria”

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  1. Dr John. Notionally if Labor holds 58 seats which l agree with you, they would need to lose 14 seats or more for a minority government(or majority Coalition) to happen. Not beyond the realms of possibilities. Greens pick up three(off Labor), Independents pick up three(off Labor). That leaves eight seats. What’s that, circa 4%(if uniform) swing against Labor. Hopefully someone will mention the exact swing in my scenario. 4% swing against Labor apparently what both sides(take with a huge grain of salt Dr John) say is happening with their polling. And Dr John, going by the bookies odds, minority Labor government same possibilities of Labor winning Brighton. You say one is a good possibility and the other no chance. Minority Labor is firming, while Brighton is easing. When you place a bet(fixed odds) on the races do you like seeing the price ease afterwards. I believe 8.0 on minority Labor government great value. True 12.0, on offer yesterday even better odds.

  2. Dr John, the best chance for you not to have a Liberal member(and possible government) is to vote strategically and put Independent above Labor. You’ll kick yourself if your vote elects a Matt(hew)Guy lobster government. Vote independent Dr John.

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