Miscellany: SEC Newgate and electoral law reform (open thread)

A fall in the federal government’s performance meeting, plus three recent arguments for electoral reform of one kind or another.

We’re now in week seven of the Newspoll drought, but that does not come as a surprise this week as the budget will be brought down tomorrow, and a poll will assuredly follow in its wake. We did have from The Australian on Friday results from an SEC Newgate Research on Friday which found the federal government’s overall performance rated as excellent by 3%, very good by 9%, good by 26%, fair by 35%, poor by 16% and very poor by 10%. This marked a nine-point drop in the combined excellent, very good and good result since the question was last asked in August. However, the party’s lead over the Coalition as best to manage cost-of-living was little changed over the same period, from 38-24 to 40-24. Ratings for state governments were down across the board, which likely reflects an unwinding of strong results for governments across the board during the pandemic. Some of the results from the poll, but not those above, can be found on the organisation’s website. It was conducted from October 5 to 10 from a sample of 1200.

Food for thought:

• Constitutional law expert George Williams calls for the voting age to be lowered to 16 in a column for The Australian.

Joo-Cheong Tham of the University of Melbourne law school argues for the franchise to be extended to permanent residents and long-term visa holders.

• Digital Rights Watch calls for the removal of exemptions for political party voter databases from privacy laws in light of the recent Optus hack.

• The Centre for Public Integrity calls for campaign spending caps, after its submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the federal election analysed the increase in spending over the past decade.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Miscellany: SEC Newgate and electoral law reform (open thread)”

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  1. Victoriasays:
    Monday, October 24, 2022 at 8:04 am
    The US msm have decided to go with the narrative that the Republicans will win the midterms, and that the abortion issue is no longer top of mind.

    I disagree with this assessment. Voters will come out like ants and vote for the dems.
    —————————————————

    This article from The Guardian by Michael Moore might make your day a little brighter, as it did mine.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/23/michael-moore-democratic-party-win-midterm-interview

    *edit poor link

  2. @aaron aaah the Kitching issue which the MSM flogged like a dead horse with absolutely zero return for them, they would have been pulling their hair out. Ancient history now though. Each time a poll is published a story and unavoidable headline must accompany it. “Albanese maintains strong lead over Dutton”, “Labor’s honeymoon continues”, “Albanese moves further ahead as preferred PM” is NOT what the boys at News Corp (and to a lesser degree Nein) want on their front pages.

  3. Once again BK, excellent work. Can I say your précis of each story is the icing on the cake for me.
    Surprising what you learn; Drapetomania was a supposed mental illness that, in 1851, American physician Samuel A. Cartwright hypothesized as the cause of enslaved Africans fleeing captivity.

    The above coming from a drilling down on The Guardian article about policy in the US being fashioned to suit the conservatives.
    That you seek to sound ‘scientific’ in order to sand-bag your racism is astonishing.
    Colour me informed (marginally)

  4. The latest target for that unique brand of venom dispensed by Murdoch media is the Australian netball team. Now Albrecthsen has a go:

    “No gratitude as woke comes between the green and the gold
    Australians have had a gutful of overpaid sportspeople who think their personal opinions on matters outside their areas of expertise are worth inflicting on sport.”

    Murdoch seemed to have a different attitude to Folau and the one-day CEO of Essendon. Presumably if the netball players were trumpeting right-wing religious/racist bigotry they would have been praised by Murdoch.

  5. Good to see that Johnson isn’t standing – he would have been an unmitigated disaster for the country (and the Tories but I don’t care at all about them).

    A year ago now Marina Hyde began an article thus:

    An edifying week in the government of Britain, a country run by the third prize in a competition to build Winston Churchill out of marshmallows. Yup, this man is our sorry lot: this pool-float Targaryen, this gurning English Krankie cousin, this former child star still squeezing himself into his little suit for coins.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/05/owen-paterson-boris-johnson-standards-commissioner

    He only got worse.

  6. news corp did not have a probli with filows anti gay rants desbite multiple warnings desbite the pompis brandis pontificating on the so called menzeys roots and how he was a modderit he actualy wanted to ban the comunist party and sky news wants to shut down any pro labor media the right has a problim with free speech have no problim with felou hate speech attacking gay people or religous discrimination yet when net ball players attack wrhinehart or cricketters stand up for climate action suddenly they need to shut up and play sport

  7. Most importantly, I’d love to see the netballers thrive and be outrageously successful without the assistance of any major corporation that is failing the values and intentions of the majority of Australians (coal, gambling, tobacco, alcohol etc). Any Australian sport that retains links with these types of brands is actually damaging their own brand of sport in the long run.

  8. maybi the publick are sick and tired of well payed opinion riters and shock jocks albrecktson ray hadley fordum think they can tell us who to vote for evry election as if we cant make up our own minds the most arogent example of this was in hinesight ray hadleys train reck interview with albanese when he had covid saying he did not think albanese was ready as if it was up to hadley then he spent half an hourranting when albanese did not make any gafs desbite hadleys gotcha questions loosing control when albanese said the boats were not coming back

  9. the one thing thats clear in australia is the right has lost the culture wars we finaly achieved same sex marige the devertion of trans gender failedwill finaly no longer have a nile in parliament in nsw come march bigitry is no longer tolerated in sport after losing the culture wars maybi news corp should let matt kean run the liberals and the moderits

  10. Cronus says:
    Monday, October 24, 2022 at 10:05 am
    Most importantly, I’d love to see the netballers thrive and be outrageously successful without the assistance of any major corporation that is failing the values and intentions of the majority of Australians (coal, gambling, tobacco, alcohol etc). Any Australian sport that retains links with these types of brands is actually damaging their own brand of sport in the long run.

    I find Leak’s cartoon essentially saying something similar…was he having a bad day?

  11. From https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/23/russia-grip-on-kherson-slips-as-civilians-flee-ukraine-counteroffensive:

    “Russia’s grip on the city of Kherson appeared increasingly fragile after a weekend in which all civilians were ordered to evacuate immediately in the face of the advancing Ukrainian counteroffensive.

    The occupied city’s Russian administration told residents to take “documents, money, valuables and clothes” due to “the tense situation on the front” and reported on Sunday that there had been “a sharp increase” in the number of civilians trying to flee.

    The US thinktank the Institute for the Study of War said the urgent call indicated that the occupiers “do not expect a rapid Russian or civilian return” to the city, and appeared to be trying to depopulate it to damage its “long-term social and economic viability”.

    Ukraine’s military added that Russia had evacuated veteran forces from around Kherson, the only city on the west bank of the Dnipro River captured by the invaders since the start of the war more than seven months ago.”
    ————————————-

    Russia has been halted in its attempt to conquer further swathes of Ukraine, and is in fact now being forced back out of key areas it had conquered in the first days of their invasion. This war can only end in either the ultimate expulsion of the Russian invaders, or the freezing of the conflict on some unjust division of Ukraine for years or even decades to come. A glance at the history of The Troubles in Northern Ireland illustrates where that can lead, both for victim and aggressor. Anyone desiring peaceful lives for the inhabitants of Eastern Europe ought to support continuing, indeed expanding, vigorous Western assistance for Ukraine in pushing out the Russian invaders.

  12. autocrat @ #56 Monday, October 24th, 2022 – 9:01 am

    Good to see that Johnson isn’t standing

    Isn’t standing only after rushing back and making every effort to get the support needed to stand. He’s made clear what his intentions are, and obviously feels no remorse or shame over all the scandals that forced him to resign the first time around. He’s dangerous, and he won’t leave willingly.

  13. @ PN
    “…… come together..”
    That pretty well sums up BoJos raison d’ existence.
    “Coming together” as often as possible and with as many partners he could get.

  14. More from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/23/russia-grip-on-kherson-slips-as-civilians-flee-ukraine-counteroffensive:

    “Concern is also growing that Russia may blow up a large hydroelectric dam at Nova Kakhovka, upstream from Kherson, which holds back 18m cubic metres of water. On Friday, Ukrainian defence intelligence warned that the dam had been mined and that two trucks full of explosives had been placed on top of its 30m-high walls.

    “Russian forces are likely preparing to destroy the dam,” the Institute of the Study of War said, with the aim of “flooding and widening the Dnipro River to delay any Ukrainian advances”. Blowing up the dam would risk destroying the homes of people who live downstream, affect energy supplies, and have a significant ecological impact.

    Russian authorities said they were taking steps to reduce the volume of water behind the dam to minimise damage, the thinktank added, although they say they are doing so because they fear Ukrainian forces will blow up the dam.”
    —————————————————-

    It ought to go without saying that anyone who blows up that dam is committing a flagrant war crime. This world will be an ever more dangerous place if Putin and all his followers are not brought to full justice for all the war crimes they already have committed and eventually will commit.

  15. The finance sector is a notable loser from Brexit. They were not responsible for Brexit. They and other internationally-oriented trades opposed it. Brexit can be seen as the product of parochial jealousies in the shires for the successes of cosmopolitan London. Neo-imperialist, reactionary, insular, supremacist beliefs have never been far from the surface in Britain. Johnson used them to build his career.

  16. That pretty well sums up BoJos raison d’ existence.
    “Coming together” as often as possible and with as many partners he could get.

    That takes a level of proficiency, endurance, and coordination which I see no evidence of Johnson possessing.

  17. [‘The jury in the trial for the man accused of raping Brittany Higgins at Parliament House has sent a note to the judge as they enter a fresh day of deliberations.

    The 12 person jury have been locked in discussions since Wednesday afternoon but, so far, but so far have not come up with a verdict on whether Bruce Lehrmann is guilty or not guilty of one count of sexual intercourse without consent against Ms Higgins.

    Court reconvened at 10am on Monday, with ACT Supreme Court Chief Justice Lucy McCallum reading the note out before the court.

    “We have not yet reached an agreement of beyond reasonable doubt,” the note said.

    Chief Justice McCallum said the jurors had asked the court for a “little extra time” to complete their deliberations.

    In her response, the Judge told the jury that there was “no time expectation” placed upon them and they should “take all the time you need”.

    Chief Justice McCallum noted that she had seen juries deliberate for considerably longer than this group had been.

    “There is no rush, there is no time limit,” she said, adding the jurors should remain true to their oath to give a “true verdict according to the evidence”.] – news.com

  18. An alternative POV about Russian Defence Minister Shoigu’s claim that Ukraine is preparing to use a ‘dirty bomb’ to what I posted earlier from DW, this time from the ISW:

    “The Kremlin is unlikely to be preparing an imminent false-flag dirty bomb attack. Shoigu’s claims further a longstanding Russian information campaign. The Kremlin has repeatedly claimed that Western states will help Ukraine conduct a false-flag WMD attack since the earliest stages of its invasion of Ukraine in February. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed it had information the US was “preparing provocations to accuse the Russian Armed Forces of using chemical, biological, or tactical nuclear weapons” in April. Putin claimed in his pre-invasion speech on February 24 that Ukraine was preparing for a nuclear attack against Russia, and Russian state disinformation outlets repeatedly claimed Western states were supporting Ukraine’s development of nuclear weapons and planning false-flag attacks.

    Shoigu’s claims likely do not portend Russian preparations to use non-strategic nuclear weapons in Ukraine either. ISW previously stated on September 30 that “ISW cannot forecast the point at which Putin would decide to use nuclear weapons. Such a decision would be inherently personal, but Putin’s stated red lines for nuclear weapon use have already been crossed in this war several times over without any Russian nuclear escalation.” Russia does not “need,” under formal Russian nuclear doctrine, a further event to justify nuclear weapons use. Ukraine is not apparently on the verge of tripping some new Russian redline, on the other hand, that might cause Putin to use non-strategic nuclear weapons against it at this time. Shoigu’s comments are thus unlikely to presage a nuclear terror attack against one or more major Ukrainian population centers or critical infrastructure in hopes of shocking Ukraine into surrender or the West into cutting off aid to Ukraine. Such attacks would be highly unlikely to force Ukraine or the West to surrender, as Ukraine’s government and people have repeatedly demonstrated their will to continue fighting, and the West would find it very challenging simply to surrender in the face of such horrific acts because of the precedent such surrender would set.

    Shoigu’s calls—and Russian state media’s amplification of false dirty bomb threats—are therefore likely intended to intimidate Western states into cutting or limiting support for Ukraine as Russia faces continued military setbacks and the likely loss of western Kherson by the end of the year. ISW has assessed since May that Putin seeks to force Ukraine to accept his terms and deter continued Western support for Ukraine through nuclear brinksmanship.[8] The recipients of Shoigu’s calls are also notable. The Kremlin has repeatedly framed the United States and the United Kingdom as Ukraine’s primary backers and the enablers of what it claims are aggressive policies toward Russia, while France and Turkey have (to varying degrees) framed themselves as mediators in the conflict. Shoigu’s round of calls was likely further Russian saber-rattling to intimidate Ukraine’s Western supporters and possibly widen fissures within the NATO alliance, not condition setting for imminent nuclear use.”
    ——————————————

    Maybe this latest instance of the long-standing Russian SOP of spreading vicious lies about its victims aims merely to cause hesitance in Western efforts to bolster Ukraine’s strength to resist the invasion. The West cannot let Putin succeed in this.

  19. Citizen

    Albrecthsen has a go:

    “No gratitude as woke comes between the green and the gold
    Australians have had a gutful of overpaid sportspeople who think their personal opinions on matters outside their areas of expertise are worth inflicting on sport.”

    Despite her supposed ideological support for freedom of speech (as long as it’s a view that she agrees with), Albrecthsen wants sports people to walk the walk but never talk the talk. Shock and horror, that sports people might have certain values and standards that seek the betterment of humankind and then do what they can to live up to them. Such an odious individual.

  20. A Russian SU31 fighter plane has crashed into a residential building in the Siberian city of Irkutsk, the second incident this week in which a combat jet has careered into an urban area.

    Irkutsk governor Igor Kobzev said no residents were hurt but both crew were killed in the blast on Sunday.

  21. UK thoughts

    Regarding the next UK PM
    I’m going to punt that it will be Rishi Sunak. So, the question becomes, how long will Rishi Sunak last?

    Regarding Brexit
    Does Brexit benefit anyone? Literally. Is any group better off because of Brexit? TBF, to an insignificantly small number of individuals like N. Farage, who might have even bigger egos now than before, it probably feels like a benefit. But any significant group to benefit escapes me.

  22. Cronussays:
    Monday, October 24, 2022 at 10:50 am
    Citizen

    Albrecthsen has a go:

    “No gratitude as woke comes between the green and the gold
    Australians have had a gutful of overpaid sportspeople who think their personal opinions on matters outside their areas of expertise are worth inflicting on sport.”

    Despite her supposed ideological support for freedom of speech (as long as it’s a view that she agrees with), Albrecthsen wants sports people to walk the walk but never talk the talk. Shock and horror, that sports people might have certain values and standards that seek the betterment of humankind and then do what they can to live up to them. Such an odious individual.
    ______________________

    Can somebody print this article from Janet and get around the paywall?
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/forcing-opinions-on-to-others-creates-division-not-diversity/news-story/13c8c296ccfe3d14bf3272e1cf766238

  23. Interesting stuff from Ukraine, but at the moment all unclear and people “maneuvering” as far as information goes.

    The dirty bomb claims…possible but very very unlikely.

    Russians blowing that dam would be bad in a lot of ways. Flooding downstream which would at least in a sense be to the Russians immediate advantage, but the drop in water levels in the HUGE reservoir above it may endanger cooling for that Nuke Plant upstream. Very bad for everybody.

    Still…….. Putin may want to use Kherson as a location for some sort of example of something?? They are all fucking idiots. 🙁

    Starting to get some info on the Baltic gas pipelines being cut. Was explosives, probably divers from what i have read on it. Who?? But, there are people getting creeped out by other undersea happenings. Faroe Islands internet cable cut,,,,,but most likely fishing boats apparently. The report of three breaks in transatlantic cables of course led to immediate speculation of sabotage but turns out the problem was a break on land in France that affected those three cables, not submarines.

    Interesting that the announcement of that cable Oman / Perth yesterday included that it has a new, Australian developed system that can at least somewhat monitor at a basic level whats happening around the cable?? That’s a warning shot to whoever may ever consider it a target i think??

    The SU-30 that crashed lately was actually flying out of the factory that builds them. Maybe new build, but more likely an older one that was there for repairs / upgrade. Test flight went badly, most likely some kind of catastrophic system failure. Surprised neither of the crew made it out though?? Saw some helmet-cam vid this morning from a Russian SU-25 pilot who ejected after being hit at an altitude of about 200m… Very crazy vid, but he wound up pretty much unhurt in a field after a very low level ejection.

    Much sadness in that part of the world…….but the Poms have something to celebrate if Boris has withdrawn his candidacy for Tory leadership. 🙂

  24. Tory cluster fu*k continues, do I have it right?….

    Boris announces he isn’t running because no one loves him, however he offers to support ” whoever wins”, this means he isn’t coming out to support anyone.
    This gives succour to Mordaunt who is still running & has offered to support Sunak if Boris runs.. note Mordaunt stated this AFTER Boris said he wasn’t running.

    Seems none of the front runners really supports anyone but themselves… what a unity shit fight developing.

  25. Cronus @ #73 Monday, October 24th, 2022 – 10:50 am

    Citizen

    Albrecthsen has a go:

    “No gratitude as woke comes between the green and the gold
    Australians have had a gutful of overpaid sportspeople who think their personal opinions on matters outside their areas of expertise are worth inflicting on sport.”

    Despite her supposed ideological support for freedom of speech (as long as it’s a view that she agrees with), Albrecthsen wants sports people to walk the walk but never talk the talk. Shock and horror, that sports people might have certain values and standards that seek the betterment of humankind and then do what they can to live up to them. Such an odious individual.

    But if you try and attack Israel (I bet she had a lot to say about Penny Wong’s decision to keep the Aus Embassy in Tel Aviv), then she goes full Woke Warrior Princess because her cause (Israel)is just. 😐

  26. Holdenhillbilly at 11:05 am
    It seems the season for air force planes dropping out of the sky. There was an earlier Russian one a few days back , the one you mention and 2 days ago a US F-35 crashed.

  27. @ AZ – not the whole caboodle but a taste.

    “Is there a roster on the fridge in the Peter FitzSimons/Lisa Wilkinson kitchen where the pirate and the princess decide whose week it is to show the world how dimwitted and divisive woke politics has become? This week, after seven players from the Manly rugby league club decided to sit out Thursday’s match rather than wear a pride ­jersey that clashes with their Christian beliefs, FitzSimons wanted to know: “What the hell is wrong with you blokes that you don’t get it? You are prepared to trash the entire Manly season on this issue alone? … For what? … Can we have a statement from the seven of you, to make clear your views, so we can all understand?”

    The italics are his. FitzSimons may have fame and money, but credibility is proving more elusive. FitzSimons’s call for a statement from the seven players sounds like a new inquisition where heretics are called to account for their ­different views.

    One word should do. Faith. The italics are mine. In the hierarchy of what matters most, these seven players have chosen their faith above a rugby game. In a free country, they get to decide that, and how they express their faith, and what values they prize ahead of others provided they are not harming others.

    Can you imagine what the ­former Wallaby would have said if the Manly Sea Eagles had told its players a day or two before the game that for this week only they would be wearing a Hillsong-themed jersey and be required to listen to the Lord’s Prayer instead of a Welcome to Country?

    The decision by the Manly players may disappoint, offend, even hurt the feelings of many people. But their decision to quietly sit out a game rather than wear a rainbow jersey that was not raised with players, but foisted on them, does not harm anyone. Just as FitzSimons has his own faith, secular and woke though it may be, the rugby players have theirs. Just as FitzSimons may not always be consistent in his beliefs, the rugby players may also pick and choose what matters to them.

    The difference is that the Manly players, most of them Pacific Islanders, and Christians, are not using their platform to insist that others agree with their values. They are sitting out the game. We have laws, in the Fair Work Act, to protect employees from discrimination by their employers on the basis of sex, sexual orientation, marital status – and religion.

    There was a very different reaction when AFLW player Haneen Zreika, a practising young Muslim woman, refused to play a footy game for GWS wearing a jersey that celebrated a pride round.

    The head of the AFL’s inclusion policy, Tanya Hosch, said that “People of faith have rights as well”.

    “We want the game to be inclusive; you don’t get to choose to just pick and choose who represents inclusion,” Hosch said.

    Back then, there was no thundering condemnation from Fitz­Simons. Though disappointed, he pointed out that Zreika is “quietly declining to use her platform to promote a belief she’s not comfortable with”.

    Did FitzSimons give the young GWS player a pass because she is a woman and a Muslim? Is targeting Christian players the last acceptable prejudice? It’s hard to follow FitzSimons’s logic.

    Diversity and inclusion are fine ideals in a free and fair society. But diversity and inclusion become hollow ends when imposing one set of views becomes the means. It is the phoniest form of diversity and inclusion.

    Perhaps we will find more common ground when we recognise and respect diversity, rather than compel people to celebrate it. Reasonably, people may not be interested in celebrating the religious views of the seven Manly players. Equally reasonably, some committed Christians may recoil at being forced to celebrate homosexual pride.”

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/forcing-opinions-on-to-others-creates-division-not-diversity/news-story/13c8c296ccfe3d14bf3272e1cf766238

  28. Russians blowing that dam would be bad in a lot of ways. Flooding downstream which would at least in a sense be to the Russians immediate advantage, but the drop in water levels in the HUGE reservoir above it may endanger cooling for that Nuke Plant upstream. Very bad for everybody.

    Not to mention a pipeline runs out of that dam… to Crimea. So Putin would be cutting off the noses of the Crimeans despite his perfectly wrinkle-free, 70 year old face. 😐

    I think that’s why he actually hasn’t done it already. He may be evil but he’s not stupid.

  29. Thoughts on Polling

    It’s been long decades, but I once understood linear regression and the parabolic confidence limits that surround the best fit answer. (The further you looked outside the range of your data the wider you had to cast your net to feel confident that you had, say, a 95% chance of capturing the next data point to come along.) I also had the sense that nonlinear regression allowed similar confidence estimates. Confidence diminishes as you stray outside your data range.

    We are now well outside the last polling data points. What are today’s confidence limits on WB’s models? Is it plus/minus a couple of percent or is it higher than that? If we knew the confidence range, we could make a judgement call on Newspoll’s continuing relevance.

    Of course, my speculation might be entirely off base. WB once tried to explain his analysis to me, but I confess that I could not keep up. But I do see that the analysis no longer appears at the top of this page, which, thinking about it, might be the answer I was looking for.

  30. Let’s try Janet’s own words:
    Perhaps we will find more common ground when we recognise and respect diversity, rather than compel people to celebrate it. Reasonably, people may not be interested in celebrating the religious environmental views of the seven Manly netball players. Equally reasonably, some committed Christians environmentalists may recoil at being forced to celebrate homosexual pride endorse Hancock Prospecting.

  31. Well troops happy Chulalongkorn Day (King Rama V- also happy Diwali Day).

    Chulalongkorn is especially loved in Thailand. He helped modernise what was then Siam. For instance Communications in the country were improved greatly with the introduction of postal services, the telegraph and the construction of Thailand’s first railway (from Bangkok to Ayutthaya).

    He made sure other religions besides Buddhism were protected (Thailand has a large Muslim population and pockets of Christianity).

    But most important Chulalongkorn freed the slaves. At the beginning of his reign (1868) 1/3 of all Thais were slaves and for 3 baht (12 cents) you could own another human being. In 1905 it was finally outalwed.

    He is Thailands own Abraham Lincoln and Queen Victoria with a dash of Willam Wilberforce combined.

    “You may choose to look the other way but you can never say again that you did not know.”

  32. well what was mist in the israil beat up was that morrison never actualy moved the embasy to jerusalim in nsw news the candadate tu ledoes not care abbout the branch members now she has been promised fairfield parashuted buy head office with backing hayes and health survice union hayes actualy wanted her imposed in stead of kenearley realising he had litle branch suport hayes seems like a uselis mp never realy heard of him and all the liberals said he was a great bloke which usualy means in effective

  33. imacca @ Monday, October 24, 2022 at 11:10 am and C@tmomma @ Monday, October 24, 2022 at 11:16 am:
    ——————————————

    The risks to cooling of the ZNPP and to the water supply of Crimea are good observations here and incline me towards the view that the Russian threat to the dam is further bluffing by the Big Scary Russian Bear to try to get Ukraine to back down.

  34. Macarthur, Imacca, Catmomma

    “An alternative POV about Russian Defence Minister Shoigu’s claim that Ukraine is preparing to use a ‘dirty bomb’ to what I posted earlier from DW, this time from the ISW:”

    I realise it is probably just a bluff to frighten the west out of supporting Ukraine any further. Nevertheless I find the whole idea of Ukraine using a “dirty bomb” near the dam or anywhere else in Kherson to be absurd in so many ways.

    Why would Ukraine do it? Their conventional land forces are gradually gaining superiority and starting to push Russia back. Exploding a dirty bomb won’t help,. since they lack a whole set of NBC protected clothing and transport for all their troops. So it would slow their efforts to recapture Kherson. When they did Kherson, one of their most fertile areas of farmland, would be irradiated for several decades. So this is not a believable lie.

    But Russia wanting to use a dirty bomb makes equally little sense. The Ukrainians in Kherson are spread out along a front over 50 km long. A dirty bomb might affect at most 10% of it. The rest would be unaffected and Russia still outnumbered and struggling to hold it. Russian troops also seem short of protective equipment so its hard to see how they could stay in the vicinity of the bomb explosion either. and again, it degrades the value of the new “Russian” territory they have just claimed.

    Plus there are all the issues Cat raised with blowing the dam and holding onto Crimea without its water.

    As threats go, its pretty silly. That is to say, I find it hard to believe.

  35. This birds name is familiar…

    “Federal Liberal Party vice president Teena McQueen has pleaded guilty to driving a black BMW convertible in Sydney’s eastern suburbs on a suspended licence.

    McQueen, through her lawyer William Martyr, pleaded guilty to driving while suspended and making an illegal U-turn at Downing Centre Local Court on Friday.

    According to agreed facts, the offences took place about 11:15am on August 11 at Oxford St, Paddington.

    The 64-year-old made the illegal U-turn at the traffic light intersection of Oxford St and Jersey Rd, where a ‘no U-turn’ sign was displayed.

    No pleas had yet been entered for a third charge of using a class A vehicle with an obscured or defaced number plate.

    McQueen did not appear at court on Friday, where her lawyer William Martyr said he was waiting for a photograph from police before a plea would be entered on the number plate charge.”

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/central-sydney/liberal-party-vicepresident-teena-mcqueen-pleads-guilty-to-driving-offences/news-story/3d605208294156c0a03077a375576bdd?amp

  36. so wonder who wil run for preselection in nsw liberal seats garith ward seems to control the numbers in kiama so could put up paul ell if he was to retire and strange desbite him being a liability and the governments chief bomb thrower alex hawke chose to find a seat so back bencher ray williams to stay in stead of backing david elliott a bit ritch elliot attacking factions saying they put loilty a head of talent when he is in a faction

  37. so wonder who wil run for preselection in nsw liberal seats garith ward seems to control the numbers in kiama so could put up paul ell if he was to retire and strange desbite him being a liability and the governments chief bomb thrower alex hawke chose to find a seat so back bencher ray williams to stay in stead of backing david elliott a bit ritch elliot attacking factions saying they put loilty a head of talent when he is in a faction the reason whiy eliot could not stay ishis factional bos allexhawke chose to save williams over him its nothing to do with matt kean as fordum protended

  38. If Gina was so interested in supporting Netball, she could have said don’t worry about the branding on the uniform and left it at that.

  39. The argument that “faith” is enough to exempt a person from anti-discrimination protections is just rubbish.

    “Faith” is merely another word for delusion, for superstition, for dogma, for belief in magic, for the irrational. The privileges afforded to religious movements, organs, beliefs and practices should be abolished. They are a blight on society.

  40. C@tmomma

    “I think that’s why he actually hasn’t done it already. He may be evil but he’s not stupid.”
    —————
    This is a common statement that seems to have become accepted as a truism.

    Lets look at some facts that might suggest otherwise, after 20 years in power:
    – he launched a war (9 months ago) that was going to be a 3 day walk-in-the park;
    – he has presided over (responsible for) a military that does not have the resources, capability, morale or leadership to prosecute the war he chose;
    – he has guaranteed the expansion of the very defence pact that he purportedly feared;
    – he has increased the unity, and defence preparedness of Europe and the USA;
    – he has brought significant economic and strategic misfortune to his country/empire; and
    – he has eroded Russia’s power and influence over its existing and former “subject” republics, potentially putting his Federation at risk.

    Not stupid?

  41. Barney in Cherating says:
    Monday, October 24, 2022 at 11:44 am
    If Gina was so interested in supporting Netball, she could have said don’t worry about the branding on the uniform and left it at that.

    ___________________________________________

    Exactly. Philanthropy is not generosity. It is ego, sin washing and hypocrisy.

  42. if ben fordim the2gb being the only right wing media defending morrisons right hand man hawkes faction think elliot was one of the best nsw ministers i would hate to think who he thought was bad elliot called for transperency when his federal leader hawke hand picked candadates it shows that like some in labor hawke values loilty from williams a minister so good he was dumpt buy berijecklien after she won election than elliott

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