Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)

A new federal poll finds Labor maintaining a commanding lead, with most undecided on the question of stage three tax cuts.

Newspoll may be spinning on its wheels, but the Age/Herald has come through with the third Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention since the election, three weeks after the last. This one has Labor on 39% (steady), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 12% (up two), One Nation on 5% (down one), the United Australia Party on 3% (up one) and independents on 9% (up one). Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish its own two-party numbers, but a fun new tool from Armarium Interreta allows you to punch in primary vote numbers and get a two-party result based on preference flows from the May election, which suggests a Labor lead of about 58-42.

Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is 60% (steady) compared with 25% for poor and very poor (up one), and he leads 53-18 on preferred prime minister (53-19 last time). Peter Dutton has a positive rating of 30% (up two) and a negative rating of 41% (up one). The poll also had questions on the budget and tax, the most interesting of which finds 34% supporting and 13% opposing the repeal of the stage three tax cuts, with fully 53% “undecided/neutral”, and on the Optus security breach. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)”

Comments Page 39 of 44
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  1. Simon Katich

    “ Mr Try was asked if one of the duties of a political chief of staff was to protect against political fallout.

    He said it was, but he did not know about Ms Higgins’s alleged sexual assault until early 2021.

    “This was an event I didn’t have any knowledge of at that time,” he said.

    He told the court he was called by then defence minister Linda Reynolds in October of 2019 after a media enquiry had been made about the alleged rape.

    “Linda Reynolds called me — she basically said she was about to send someone around from her office to talk to Brittany because there had been a media enquiry about an incident that happened in Linda’s office when Brittany worked for her,” he said.”
    ———————————————————————————————

    I’m not sure I’m reading this correctly but as it reads chronologically:

    He (Try) told the court he was called by then defence minister Linda Reynolds in October of 2019 after a media enquiry had been made about the alleged rape.

    The he says but he did not know about Ms Higgins’s alleged sexual assault until early 2021.

    So he knew in 2019 from Linda Reynolds (or her representative) but then says he didn’t know until early 2021?

  2. Upnorthsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 10:49 am

    #Weather on PB
    A strong High Pressure system over Southern China has seen Bangkok residents shiver through on of its coldest days this year. With the temperature barely nuding above 28 degrees yesterday and morning lows plumbing 19 degrees, Bangkok locals donned thick jackets, scarves and beanies to ward off the cold.

    With an overcast sky keeping sunlight at bay, the Thai Meteorological Department issued the following warning:

    “During 16 – 20 Oct, people in the country should be careful of their health due to cool weather.”

    Sounds horrible, fortunately Saigon doesn’t seem to be effected by it and I don’t have clothes for that sort of weather.

  3. Late Riser @ #1596 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 1:17 pm

    C@tmomma, I think you have access to NYT articles. I hadn’t read this piece when I had my little rant, but it argues essentially the same thing, with examples, that one religion has no right to interfere in another. I take it a small step further, that I shouldn’t need to be a member of a religion for protection from another religion.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/15/opinion/same-sex-marriage-is-a-religious-freedom.html

    I’ll access it for free for you, Late Riser, give me a moment. 🙂

    Yes, the biggest problem with religious organisations these days is that, via legislation enacted by sympathetic governments, they seek to impose their worldview on all of us.

  4. “I’ll access it for free for you, Late Riser, give me a moment. ”
    No. Sorry. I can read it fine. I just figured you had access too, so I needn’t open it up.

  5. poroti says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 12:21 pm

    How many people do you think gave even 1 second of thought to S3 when they entered the polling booths ? In deciding votes it would have like a grain of sand on the Morrison beach.

    _____________________________________________

    How many people saw or heard of Julia Gillard’s promise of “no carbon tax” before the 2010 election?
    And how many saw the Lying Friar’s football ground assertion of no cuts to the ABC, etc on election eve?

    The lesson of history is that these things can take on a life of their own after the election, as happened in both those cases.

    The one and only issue at the present time is whether the government should renege on a promise it made prior to the election. It goes to the honesty and credibility of Government, which the Coalition smashed in the preceding decade.

    There can be times when a promise cannot be kept, but the circumstances must not only be compelling but unforeseeable. The GFC, which sideswiped Rudd is an example. Neither circumstance applies now and no change is foreseeable before then (which is obvious, though not to some here).

    That is not to say that tax cuts can’t be delivered to income tax payers in a varied format, with the greatest benefit to lower income earners, but that can well and truly be sold in a way that could be attacked by the Opposition by them arguing the case for higher income earners getting their original cut and poor people getting less.

    For all the chattering going on here and in many other places not frequented by the vast majority of taxpayers, there is no possibility that Labor will redirect those tax cuts into more worthy projects that will only provide real benefits in the medium to long term (subject to dramatically changed circumstances in the next 18 months).

  6. Barney in Saigon says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:21 pm

    Upnorthsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 10:49 am

    #Weather on PB
    A strong High Pressure system over Southern China has seen Bangkok residents shiver through on of its coldest days this year. With the temperature barely nuding above 28 degrees yesterday and morning lows plumbing 19 degrees, Bangkok locals donned thick jackets, scarves and beanies to ward off the cold.

    With an overcast sky keeping sunlight at bay, the Thai Meteorological Department issued the following warning:

    “During 16 – 20 Oct, people in the country should be careful of their health due to cool weather.”

    Sounds horrible, fortunately Saigon doesn’t seem to be effected by it and I don’t have clothes for that sort of weather.
    中华人民共和国
    My thongs are letting in the cold air.

  7. Cronus at 1:14 pm
    You’ll need to listen very carefully to the words and their meaning. A lesson I learned after seeing a swifty The Rodent pulled and got away with it.
    Hand on heart The Rodent declared that he had not been ‘informed’ about something. It turned out that being ‘informed’ has/had a particular meaning in the bureaucracy. So he could hand on heart say he was not ‘informed’ about the details. Sure he might have been ‘told’ about it but he was not officially ‘informed’ about what happened. A sharper memoried Bludger may be able to recall which particular Howard ‘scandal’ this involved.

  8. There’s enough lack of trust in governments now as it is. The new government doesn’t need to add to it.
    John Howard started it. Labor don’t need to perpetuate it. Nor do they want to.

  9. porotisays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 12:21 pm

    Sanppy Tom

    even with the “handicap” of S3.

    How many people do you think gave even 1 second of thought to S3 when they entered the polling booths ? In deciding votes it would have like a grain of sand on the Morrison beach.

    That’s exactly the point of Labor’s promise, people went into the polling both not thinking of tax cuts.

  10. Upnorthsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:28 pm

    Barney in Saigon says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:21 pm

    Upnorthsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 10:49 am

    #Weather on PB
    A strong High Pressure system over Southern China has seen Bangkok residents shiver through on of its coldest days this year. With the temperature barely nuding above 28 degrees yesterday and morning lows plumbing 19 degrees, Bangkok locals donned thick jackets, scarves and beanies to ward off the cold.

    With an overcast sky keeping sunlight at bay, the Thai Meteorological Department issued the following warning:

    “During 16 – 20 Oct, people in the country should be careful of their health due to cool weather.”

    Sounds horrible, fortunately Saigon doesn’t seem to be effected by it and I don’t have clothes for that sort of weather.
    中华人民共和国
    My thongs are letting in the cold air.

    I wore a pair of Crocs throughout my last UK winter. They were quite effective thermally, that is until it snowed and the snow squeezed through the holes.

  11. Barney in Saigon says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:34 pm

    porotisays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 12:21 pm

    Sanppy Tom

    even with the “handicap” of S3.

    How many people do you think gave even 1 second of thought to S3 when they entered the polling booths ? In deciding votes it would have like a grain of sand on the Morrison beach.

    That’s exactly the point of Labor’s promise, people went into the polling both not thinking of tax cuts.
    中华人民共和国

    @poroti – cobber it’s the “wedge”, the “dog whistle to the Murdoch Media” – the “vibe” if you like.

    Labor avoided that when punters went into the booth. It wants to avoid it again at the next poll.

    If you think Prime Minister the Honourbale Scott Morrison MP was bad, Prime Minster the Honourrable Peter Dutton MP is worse. Politics 101.

    Damn I wish there was a Newspoll.

  12. S3 is a political deadly cancer for Labor.

    Best to take the uncomfortable treatment now and spend the next few years healing and be back to full strength by the next election.

  13. Dates who, what and when….

    “The trial has broken for lunch and will return this afternoon.

    Before the break, Queensland state MP Sam O’Connor gave evidence via video link.

    He told the court Higgins, with whom he is friends, alluded to the alleged sexual assault but didn’t fully disclose it to him in March 2019.

    “She described it as a ‘super f—-d up thing that happened’,” O’Connor told the court.

    He told the court that after learning more about the allegation later on, he remembered her saying that “this would define her, that she would be known for this instead of being good at her job”.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/lehrmann-trial-live-updates-case-enters-third-week-linda-reynolds-set-to-give-evidence-20221017-p5bqa2.html?post=p548te#p548te

    “I remember being pretty angry about it as well,” he said.


  14. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 10:46 am
    Dog’s Brunch,
    The Ukrainian Military is the global guinea pig for new war strategy.

    Not true because similar things happened during Vietnam war. Russia and China supplied weapons to Vietcong or North Vietnamese while US was fighting with them with Australians as partners.
    Currently, Europe and US are supplying weapons to Ukraine while Russia is fighting with Ukraine with with one Belarus helping them.
    When Soviet Union was in Afghanistan US supplied weapons to Mujahideen.

  15. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:43 pm

    S3 is a political deadly cancer for Labor.

    Best to take the uncomfortable treatment now and spend the next few years healing and be back to full strength by the next election.
    中华人民共和国
    Cobber I think you need a Cup Tea, a Bex and a good lie down.

  16. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:43 pm

    Barney,
    No woollen socks with your Crocs!?!

    Socks with Crocs????????????

    Next thing you’ll be suggesting socks with sandles, or even more sacrilegious socks with thongs like the local women when outdoors for too long. 🙂

  17. Barney in Saigon says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:41 pm
    I wore a pair of Crocs throughout my last UK winter. They were quite effective thermally, that is until it snowed and the snow squeezed through the holes.
    中华人民共和国
    Crocs are trendy (again). My kids get them – there is a “platform” variety.

    And you can collect little plastic “thingys” that clip onto the holes to add to the basic item and brighten them up. I don’t think Barney collects the little plastic “thingys” – but hey I have been wrong before.

  18. At the risk of sounding like a heartless bastard, i am sick to death of RESPONSIBLE taxpayers having to hand money to people who do not have INSURANCE .
    We had 10 days in a tent on the Hounville showgrounds a few years ago because of the southern Tasmanian fires .
    our house on 40 acres on forest did not burn, but it was close.
    the one comfort was that our insurance company assured us we were fully covered .
    some tough love is required i think.
    we now live in Brisvegas and only have to worry about floods .
    nineth story appartment so i think it will be ok…

  19. Kelta says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:51 pm

    At the risk of sounding like a heartless bastard, i am sick to death of RESPONSIBLE taxpayers having to hand money to people who do not have INSURANCE .
    We had 10 days in a tent on the Hounville showgrounds a few years ago because of the southern Tasmanian fires .
    our house on 40 acres on forest did not burn, but it was close.
    the one comfort was that our insurance company assured us we were fully covered .
    some tough love is required i think.
    we now live in Brisvegas and only have to worry about floods .
    nineth story appartment so i think it will be ok…
    中华人民共和国
    +1

  20. C@tmomma says:

    The only discussion was between Cronus and I about his neighbourhood party and his neighbour’s attitudes towards the S3 tax cuts. Also, Ven made one comment and Boerwar made an observation about Revenue in general.

    However, since you turned up with your barrage of posts just about every other subject has been derailed.
    ____________
    That’s just bullshit. Other people were talking about it. You just don’t like what I said. Worry about your own posts and stop trying to be the blog police. That’s my advice.

  21. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:54 pm

    poroti,

    That shot always triggers many emotions in me…
    中华人民共和国
    Cookers and Kookbabblers say that that photo is fake. The earth is flat. How can you prove that photo is ridegy didge poroti?

  22. Senator Cash and her staff member must have provided police statements which were unhelpful for the prosecution case on the issue of corroboration of Ms Higgins’ complaint having been made in 2019, such that they have been determined to be hostile witnesses whom the DPP can cross-examine.

  23. I thought Labor promised no new money for fossil fuels ..?

    What’s with the $1.5bn for the Middle Arm petrochemical hub in Darwin Harbour then ..?

  24. ItzaDream says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:59 pm

    Barney why do you say Saigon and not Ho Chi Minh City?
    中华人民共和国
    Well Bangkok is officially called

    “Krung Thep Mahanakhon Amon Rattanakosin Mahinthara Yuthaya Mahadilok Phop Noppharat Ratchathani Burirom Udomratchaniwet Mahasathan Amon Piman Awatan Sathit Sakkathattiya Witsanukam Prasit.”

    But I just called Bangkok, Bangers, BKK or the City of Angels! The city holds the world record for the longest name of a place.

  25. Michaelia Cash did not know about the alleged rape by Bruce Lehrmann.

    “ Senator Michaelia Cash has denied that she knew of the alleged rape of Brittany Higgins more than a year before it became public in February 2021, agreeing it would be “political suicide” to have covered it up.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/17/michaelia-cash-denies-knowing-of-alleged-of-brittany-higgins-18-months-before-it-became-public

    I think Cash is wrong.

    A coverup of a crime is not political suicide.

    The exposure of a coverup of a crime is political suicide. Or at least it may be politically fatal.

  26. the earlier question about Tassie being a Liberal state , after 12 years there i can tell you that the Labour party in Tas have been taken over be a group of conservatives and are trying to destroy the real Labour people like David O’Byrne .
    They have lost touch with there base.
    sound familiar…?

  27. If Michaelia Cash really knew nothing of the alleged rape until 2021, then the wording of her recorded conversation with Higgins is very odd indeed.

  28. Upnorth @ #1933 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 2:04 pm

    ItzaDream says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:59 pm

    Barney why do you say Saigon and not Ho Chi Minh City?
    中华人民共和国
    Well Bangkok is officially called

    “Krung Thep Mahanakhon Amon Rattanakosin Mahinthara Yuthaya Mahadilok Phop Noppharat Ratchathani Burirom Udomratchaniwet Mahasathan Amon Piman Awatan Sathit Sakkathattiya Witsanukam Prasit.”

    But I just called Bangkok, Bangers, BKK or the City of Angels! The city holds the world record for the longest name of a place.

    Did you copy and paste that? Or did it just run off your finger tips like pearly drops of water from a garden sprinkler caught in the sunlight …

  29. Winding it back, if you did cover something up because you thought its exposure would be political suicide, then saying covering it up would be political suicide makes perfect sense – you are trapped in the mirror of deceit and need to use the reason you did something as the reason you didn’t, although you did.

  30. Upnorthsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:51 pm

    Barney in Saigon says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:41 pm
    I wore a pair of Crocs throughout my last UK winter. They were quite effective thermally, that is until it snowed and the snow squeezed through the holes.
    中华人民共和国
    Crocs are trendy (again). My kids get them – there is a “platform” variety.

    And you can collect little plastic “thingys” that clip onto the holes to add to the basic item and brighten them up. I don’t think Barney collects the little plastic “thingys” – but hey I have been wrong before.

    They were a lovely imitation pair I picked up in Pakse, Laos because I couldn’t find any decent thongs. I saw the plastic thingies, but was torn between butterflies and unicorns, so I passed on them. 🙂

  31. ItzaDream says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 2:10 pm
    Upnorth @ #1933 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 2:04 pm
    中华人民共和国
    Not even Thais know how to say it! So defo copy and paste job.

    Thais just say Krung Thep as do road signs etc.

    But I did like you prose itza.

    When I was a kid we kept Blue Heeler Cattle dogs. They loved to attack the sprinkler when it was turned on. Hours of fun.

  32. ItzaDreamsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:59 pm

    Barney why do you say Saigon and not Ho Chi Minh City?

    A lot of locals still use Saigon.

    I tend to float between the two.

  33. Upnorth, earlier, re Lehrmann’s trial

    He told the court that after learning more about the allegation later on, he remembered her saying that “this would define her, that she would be known for this instead of being good at her job”.

    She’s right. It’s took Monica Lewinski decades to find her public voice.

  34. ItzaDream says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 2:22 pm
    Happy childhood days Upnorth.
    中华人民共和国
    True cobber true. 🙂

  35. Barney in Saigon @ #1943 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 2:22 pm

    ItzaDreamsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:59 pm

    Barney why do you say Saigon and not Ho Chi Minh City?

    A lot of locals still use Saigon.

    I tend to float between the two.

    We visited a few years ago, and it was mostly Saigon. I was just interested in why, and (like ‘Bangers’, as it turns out), it looks like it’s just simply easier to say, roll off the tongue. I was wondering if the ‘south’ still wanted to hang onto the concept, of southness, times past.

  36. ItzaDreamsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 2:26 pm

    Barney in Saigon @ #1943 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 2:22 pm

    ItzaDreamsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:59 pm

    Barney why do you say Saigon and not Ho Chi Minh City?

    A lot of locals still use Saigon.

    I tend to float between the two.

    We visited a few years ago, and it was mostly Saigon. I was just interested in why, and (like ‘Bangers’, as it turns out), it looks like it’s just simply easier to say, roll off the tongue. I was wondering if the ‘south’ still wanted to hang onto the concept, of southness, times past.

    I think the born and bred are more likely to say Saigon, whilst those who moved from the countryside are more mixed.

  37. Speaking of Peter Dutton has he been seen in the flood zones offering support ?
    __________
    Scott, he’s provided support by staying away.

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