The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.
The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.
The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.
Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:
• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.
• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.
The Government should always be open to negotiating with the Opposition so long as the Opposition is willing to negotiate in good faith. That increases the likelihood that reforms will endure beyond the life of the Government. I wasn’t expecting much constructive engagement from the Dutton-led Opposition, but happy to be proved wrong in this instance. If it gives Labor 80% of what it wants that’s a win. Let’s see how it goes.
Steve,
With cross bench support, I doubt the Government would be willing to make many concessions at all with the Opposition.
Barney in Saigon says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 4:50 pm
It seems there is a major issue with premature ejaculation in Australian politics at the moment.
中华人民共和国
Too true cobber – ‘relevance deprivation syndrome’ me thinks.
How dare a Labor Government implement its’ election pledges!
No. Both he and Greensborough Growler have unfortunately been taken from the sin bin and permanently banned. I say ‘unfortunately’ because I think they could have been reprimanded and given another chance to toe the line but William decided otherwise; and it is his blog when all is said and done. I am still hoping he will eventually change his mind.
Kelta @ #835 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 1:20 pm
So that’s why the mood has lifted down here. Another whinging fekwit departs.
‘Cronus says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 4:25 pm
Boerwar says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 8:10 am
“As comrade Jughashvili observed, numbers have a quality all of their own.
Russia has a pool of around 20-22 million 18-45 year olds.
Ukraine has a pool of around 6-7 million 18-45 year olds.”
It’s true that numerical superiority has value but these numbers are also logistically significant. They must be fed, clothed, armed, resupplied and transported by a highly competent system. These things are all possible to an extent and for a time but they must also occur in a context. Is it Winter? Are they under fire? Are they being well led? The one thing they simply cannot be supplied with is morale.’
———————————–
I agree that all these considerations apply. As do all the issues raised with troop quality, training, etc, earlier in the day.
I was making a single point: that the Russian population of fighting-aged males allows for plenty of wastage.
The corollary was that it is what is left is what counts.
Bystander says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 5:09 pm
Upnorth posted
Bushfire Bill – I take it is still in the Sin Bin???
No. Both he and Greensborough Growler have unfortunately been taken from the sin bin and permanently banned. I say ‘unfortunately’ because I think they could have been reprimanded and given another chance to toe the line but William decided otherwise; and it is his blog when all is said and done. I am still hoping he will eventually change his mind.
中华人民共和国
Roger that cobber.
Bert says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 5:12 pm
Kelta @ #835 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 1:20 pm
A W.A. style wipe out would be fabulous , then N.S.W. next year .
Don’t worry about Tassie , i just lived there for 12 years and they are mostly a bunch of whinging appose everything mainland hating Luddite’s who still think they should be able to clear-fell the world heritage wilderness because the only real jobs are cutting down 600 year old trees.
So that’s why the mood has lifted down here. Another whinging fekwit departs.
中华人民共和国
You sound like a happy sort of chap Bert. Bet you Sunday nights are hoot at your place as the roast is carved.
Upnorth @ #908 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 5:18 pm
You can take your Tassie bashing, sit on it and rotate.
People apparently love your “sense of humour” on here.
I’ve got news for you “cobber”.
You’re a puerile fekwit .
Go and join kelta in a mutual circle jerk.
I did alert the UAP, the Greens, the Jackie Lambie Party, Pocock and the Teals that the Nationals and the LIberals did actually also exist and that there was potential for Labor to negotiate with either or both of the Nationals and the Liberals. Shorter story: every party in the Senate has the BOP!
The appear not to have believed the wise old words of an ancient owlish observer of politics since he first saw Bolte abuse TV by having a wooden pointer with some graphs during his re-election speeches.
The point is that the extreme right and the extreme left more or less cancel each other out. They have around 12% of the vote each. This leaves the Teals who, on economics at least, more or less cancel each other out as well.
If the opposition parties agree to be reasonable and rational with governments, rather than compulsively obstructionist, they collectively they will have the support of the majority of the Australian electorate for the rest of the century.
Bipartisan support for a NACC will reduce the chances that it does not disappear in a puff of smoke or is killed off by nasty appointments or is attritted by funding cuts at the next change of government.
Anyhoo, Albanese did alert the xbench smorgasbord that time was a’pressing on the NACC. Being a party of integrity, Labor wants to fulfil the election promise to have the legislation passed before Christmas.
The odds and sods ignored him because they enjoyed the combo of grandstanding, stunting and blocking. Such heady power! Oh. And they have repeatedly stated that while they are willing to squeal about a lack of integrity on the part of Labor, the Liberals and the Nationals, they are quite happy to try to force Labor to break its election promises.
Albanese is now testing out the possibilities of an end-run around the wreckers and blockers.
Bert says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 5:25 pm
Upnorth @ #908 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 5:18 pm
You can take your Tassie bashing, sit on it and rotate.
People apparently love your “sense of humour” on here.
I’ve got news for you “cobber”.
You’re a puerile fekwit .
Go and join kelta in a mutual circle jerk.
中华人民共和国
Ahh geez cobber you made me day! We Queenslanders and Tassies gotta stick together hey?
You reckon the Cowboys are going to get up over them bloody Eeels tonight?
IMO, Dutton will seek to negate:
1. Climate by generally going quiet on it.
2. Corruption by supporting the NACC in a bipartisan approach and hoping to pick off some Labor politician crooks.
3. Women issues by generally supporting or staying silent on various Labor initiatives to improve the lot of women.
4. China, by generally adopting a bipartisan approach.
5. Defence acquisitions, ditto.
This will leave his favourite election target: the hip pocket nerve.
Bwana Bandt and the Greens will try to help him by acting like a collection of village idiots.
Labor will try to thwart him by not allowing him culture war targets such as the monarchy, etc, etc, etc and by moving slowly slowly on economic reforms.
Bertsays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 5:25 pm
_____________________
Well said Bert.
He has been getting a bit too big for his boots lately.
Boerwar says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 5:34 pm
IMO, Dutton will seek to negate:
1. Climate by generally going quiet on it.
2. Corruption by supporting the NACC in a bipartisan approach and hoping to pick off some Labor politician crooks.
3. Women issues by generally supporting or staying silent on various Labor initiatives to improve the lot of women.
4. China, by generally adopting a bipartisan approach.
5. Defence acquisitions, ditto.
This will leave his favourite election target: the hip pocket nerve.
Bwana Bandt and the Greens will try to help him by acting like a collection of village idiots.
Labor will try to thwart him by not allowing him culture war targets such as the monarchy, etc, etc, etc and by moving slowly slowly on economic reforms.
中华人民共和国
+1 well put BW
Boerwar at 5:25 pm
After all of that it still comes down to the result. Should we get the traditional horse built by a committee ‘Camel’ then Labor has failed. Should we get a fit for purpose ‘horse’ then it is a great ‘Success’ for Albo and Labor. No excuseramas will be entered into.
Is Australia doing a weird variation on the PASOK gambit by disappearing the Liberal Party?
Taylormade says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 5:36 pm
Bertsays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 5:25 pm
_____________________
Well said Bert.
He has been getting a bit too big for his boots lately.
中华人民共和国
LOL Taylormade
Old Hat at 2.42
The State must have an existence that is perpetual and continuous and that is separate from the government and/or legislature of the moment.
For this to have practical effect, the authority of the State has to be exercisable by an individual that is not a part of the government and/or legislature. That individual is – for the want of another term – the Head of State…
____________
Why must “…the authority of the State…” be excercised by an individual?
Upnorth @ #911 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 5:32 pm
“Cobber”. End of so piss off.
p
All negotiated outcomes involve compromise. The existence of multiple combinations of Senate BOPs = negotiations, possibly including parallel negotiations simultaneously = compromise.
Compromise will be greeted as Labor’s failure by the Greens. They always have done this. They seem to be getting worse.
Any progress will be claimed as the particular political victory of the Greens over the same old, same old forces of evil.
The $64 question is whether the NACC will nail and jail political crooks and shonks with exemplary expedition.
The scope creep for the NACC being sought by Bwana Bandt and the Raving Looney Greens is predictably absurdist. Why do they do it? (1) They simply cannot help themselves. (2) It demonstrates to their particular satisfaction that, regardless of the outcome, only the Greens are spotless.
It’s got me buggered why Tories are always so cranky. I’ve fought the buggers well neigh on 40 years.
Polling booths, letters to the editor public forums etc. Tories always seem very very cranky at the world.
I mean you can dance the Pride of Erin on their bottom lips!
Laxatives me thinks is the solution. They probably eat too much cheese and not enough fibre.
Bwana Bandt and the Greens will try to help him by acting like a collection of village idiots.
________
Acting?
Rex at 4.34ish
The L/NP is corrupt.
You don’t engage with corrupt outfits.
There’s no way for Labor partisans to spin these negotiations as good.
____________
Bullshit. True govt governs on behalf of ALL – including opponents. Neither you nor the Coalition comprehend true govt.
BK says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 5:48 pm
Bwana Bandt and the Greens will try to help him by acting like a collection of village idiots.
________
Acting?
中华人民共和国
Quote of the day BK, quote of the day!
Boerwar
Do it once do it right. I’m sick of the bullshit line about perfection being the enemy of the good being trotted out to justify accepting the shoddy and unfit . Meanwhile the ‘good’ that it is supposedly about barely gets a look in. Bah humbug, harrumph etc etc
Snappy Tom says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 5:49 pm
Rex at 4.34ish
The L/NP is corrupt.
You don’t engage with corrupt outfits.
There’s no way for Labor partisans to spin these negotiations as good.
____________
Bullshit. True govt governs on behalf of ALL – including opponents. Neither you nor the Coalition comprehend true govt.
中华人民共和国
That’s correct cobber – it’s called Parliament.
I find it difficult to envision any FICAC with support from the modern Liberal Party being even remotely fit for purpose.
Even on the off-chance that the opposition are willing to wave through an acceptable model, I still think it would be both better policy and better politics on the government’s part to work with the crossbench to get it passed.
There is broad public support for a FICAC with teeth, and the more the opposition gnash and wail about it, the worse they look to an electorate that is fed up with unethical and corrupt behaviour from their elected representatives.
poroti @ #925 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 5:50 pm
You’re making a hell of a lot of assumptions there, before you have even seen what the outcomes of the negotiations have been.
Asha @ #927 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 5:55 pm
Or, the more the electorate looks at it and says, they’ve both been able to work together to get it done.
Sadly, there’s still a lot more Liberal, National and LNP MPs in the Lower House than any other party and they ARE the Opposition.
p
We are probably on the same page. The promise was a NACC that is fit for purpose.
BK
Ouch!
Nothing wrong with engaging in some initial negotiations. Who knows, maybe Dutton has read the room and the opposition will be willing to wave through an acceptable model. But if, as I strongly suspect, the Liberals want to neuter it to save their own hides, the government would be fools to agree to any deals.
upnorth,
Why don’t you ask Bert what he thinks of Brisbane?
wranslide @ #894 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 4:31 pm
Andrew_Earlwood does it better, wranslide.
Um, I don’t know who you’re trying to impress with your Mini Me Andrew_Earlwood act, or depress, like me, but honey, it’s falling flatter than a pancake.
Nevertheless, yes, Eddy should have stuck around, like a man, as Chelsea Manning did, and faced up to the crime he had committed, because he did commit a crime, despite whatever opinion you might have about the merits of his actions. However, if you want to join Team Trump, where some people are held accountable for their crimes and others are above the law, then that’s your call.
Still, at the end of the day, Edward Snowden received a punishment worse than any he could have if he stuck around and faced the music. He has to live in Russia for the rest of his life. 😆
Asha says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 6:01 pm
Nothing wrong with engaging in some initial negotiations. Who knows, maybe Dutton has read the room and the opposition will be willing to wave through an acceptable model. But if, as I strongly suspect, the Liberals want to neuter it to save their own hides, the government would be fools to agree to any deals.
中华人民共和国
For Dutton to go public he know their “Goose is Cooked” and he is trying to salvage some runs from the Teals and Greens. That’s why Rex and Co. are squealing like stuck pigs.
If the Liberals are seen to oppose FICAC it would be seen by the electorate like the Nats opposing the Fitzgerald reforms in QLD in the early ’90’s – even the Nats weren’t that dumb.
Asha @ #932 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 6:01 pm
And I don’t seriously think Albanese and the government would be so stupid as to allow that. They still have Plan B if they need it.
Bert,
My #2 Son wants to come and live in Tasmania. Not even in Hobart. Maybe on the West Coast or in the North West. As long as they have NDIS jobs going. 🙂
Dandy Murray-Honeydew says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 6:03 pm
upnorth,
Why don’t you ask Bert what he thinks of Brisbane?
中华人民共和国
No cobber – I don’t wanna push my luck. I feel Bert is a bit cranky today. Its just the vibe I get. Possible solutions are:
1. Bex and a good lie down
2. Enema
3. XXXX
But them Tasmanians can get mighty touchy when you poke them up the wrong way.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 6:10 pm
Bert,
My #2 Son wants to come and live in Tasmania. Not even in Hobart. Maybe on the West Coast or in the North West. As long as they have NDIS jobs going.
中华人民共和国
He should live next to Bert and go for Sunday Roast C@t!
Upnorth @ #939 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 6:15 pm
My son is not parochial or biased and he just wants to start a family and buy a house. Tassie seems like a good place to go. Plus, his wife-to-be is from England and she loves cold weather, as does he. Soz, but he hates the heat and the humidity. And he drinks cider not beer. So Tassie ticks the boxes. 🙂
C@tmomma says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 6:19 pm
Upnorth @ #939 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 6:15 pm
C@tmomma says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 6:10 pm
Bert,
My #2 Son wants to come and live in Tasmania. Not even in Hobart. Maybe on the West Coast or in the North West. As long as they have NDIS jobs going.
中华人民共和国
He should live next to Bert and go for Sunday Roast C@t!
My son is not parochial or biased and he just wants to start a family and buy a house. Tassie seems like a good place to go. Plus, his wife-to-be is from England and she loves cold weather, as does he. Soz, but he hates the heat and the humidity. And he drinks cider not beer. So Tassie ticks the boxes.
中华人民共和国
Good on him C@t – Tassie sounds about right. Bert I am sure will give you some useful tips. I went fishing off Hobart once. A top day and got some nice deepwater fish. Was summer however!
Asha @ #932 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 6:01 pm
Have you considered that there may be members of the current government worried about an overly expansive NACC as desired by many of the independents? Im not trying to make a false equivilency between the ALP and LNP, but there certainly isnt only clean skins in the current ALP, and as a party of power there’s always going to be some level of reluctance to be held truly accountable, especially when they’ve finally got the keys to the castle after so long and have so many good soldiers to reward.
Hitting Lake St Clair in a couple of weeks after a few days in Hobart 10 weeks ago.
Love Tasmania
Boerwar at 6:00 pm
I’m just a bit twitchy after seeing so much #metoo from Labor in recent years. But that was then and they were in purgatory aka Opposition. Now ? We shall soon see.
(I’ll say this very quietly in case nath ‘Shorten’ hears 😆 ) I am also a little nervous given the behavior of some peasants within the Rudd+Gillard governments. Have lessons been learnt ? You’d bloody think so but again, we shall see.
UpNorth, don’t worry about old Bert. He’s always angry. But I suspect his hostility towards you is due to your warm relations with C@t. He’s always fancied himself.
Interesting …
I expect the government will close this down quick smart. Too many potential litigants 🙁
nath says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 6:49 pm
UpNorth, don’t worry about old Bert. He’s always angry. But I suspect his hostility towards you is due to your warm relations with C@t. He’s always fancied himself.
中华人民共和国
Bert you sly old fox.
I expect that Labor would have little to fear from NACC if for no other reason than being out of power for nearly nine years. It’s possible that a skeleton or two might tumble out of the closet. If so, then so be it. The closet was probably given a good going over by the Liberal-Murdoch dirt unit before the election and they came up with nothing. Ditto the likelihood anything emerging from the Rudd-Gillard years. In any case they got a thorough going-over from politically motived Royal Commissions which found nothing of substance.
The Coalition, on the other hand…
nathsays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 6:49 pm
UpNorth, don’t worry about old Bert. He’s always angry. But I suspect his hostility towards you is due to your warm relations with C@t. He’s always fancied himself.
——————————————-
LOL nath
Bonnie:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 6:24 pm
I think you’re right. I further believe that the LOTO, as judged by his comments today, will prevail in part in his desire not to have the proposed federal integrity commission inquire into past corrupt conduct. There should at least be a starting point, and that should be 18 May 2019. Morrison & others in his cabinet must not be simply exonerated as an aberration – they weren’t. Had he won, who knows what would’ve ensued?
_____________________________________
Hi, Bert.