The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.
The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.
The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.
Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:
• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.
• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.
Snowdon appears to have not have taken coin from Putin but the Clinton’s did.
https://www.factcheck.org/2017/10/facts-uranium-one/
TBC: Hillary, even with her abundance of faults, was still a better bet.
It’s got to be better than have “Charles in Charge”.
——————-
Not having Charles in charge of me. Not my days and my nights.
laughtong @ #815 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 12:18 pm
Have the ALP got a ‘Let’s Misplace Matt’ campaign? 😀
wranslide @ #846 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 2:14 pm
Joining Dennis Rodman on his next trip to kiss the feet of Vladimir, wranslide?
wranslide at 2:14 pm
The original ‘war’ was before my time, I only discovered it when it bubbled up again in the nomination battles in the lead up to Trump being elected. It was quite an eye opener to go into the archive and to see the original debates. The surprise being the passion involved and how invested people were in supporting ‘their’ candidate for the Democrat nomination , be it Obama or Clinton.
Snappy Tom says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11:53 am
The State must have an existence that is perpetual and continuous and that is separate from the government and/or legislature of the moment.
For this to have practical effect, the authority of the State has to be exercisable by an individual that is not a part of the government and/or legislature. That individual is – for the want of another term – the Head of State.
The swearing-in of officials is a ceremonial accessory, but if it were more than that, you’re suggesting that the Chief Justice have an executive role. This would very deeply compromise the judiciary and would prove to be completely unacceptable. The judiciary is separate and must stay that way.
The State exists at all times, including during the period in which the parliament has expired. The State exists between the appointment of Ministers. The State is subject to the law. To have meaning, this has to apply at all times, without exception.
So we need a legal entity – a State – and we need a person who by their hand can give effect to State powers and duties. This is the long and the short of it.
In the current system, that person is the Governor-General, a person appointed by the PM with the tacit approval of the LOTO. That person can be replaced as easily as they are appointed; that is, with the authority of the majority of the House. This is a brilliantly simple arrangement. It means that the legal authority of the State – something that exists in law at all times – in Australia is democratically assigned and democratically answerable.
The only exception to this appears to be the case that arises when the Senate refuses to pass Supply. In this case, the G-G, who is constitutionally a part of the Parliament, has the power to dismiss the House and order an election. That is the lesson of 1975. Customarily, this power is not available to the G-G.
If you want to make the exercise of power in Australia more democratic, reform the Senate. Abolish their financial veto.
a r @ #836 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 1:23 pm
He should have stayed in America and taken his medicine like Chelsea Manning did. He ran away into the arms of Vladimir Putin instead.
Snappy Tom at 12:30pm
Well put. One cannot be all. (You probably realise that we’re circling back to AE’s point, that we don’t need a head of state, and with which I have no problems.) But in getting here we’ve lost Aly’s point, that a very large number of us crave the stirring magic of the collective. And as much as I enjoy cricket, I don’t think the boys need any more elevation. The grand continuity of the collective lies somewhere else.
(I am allowing myself a tactical retreat in face of overwhelming weed numbers.)
To reiterate a position I’ve floated a couple of time already on bludger – and light of the Waleed Aly article and subsequent exchange of ideas between Snappy Tom and Poroti today – in my view a head of state – in any guise – is actually unnecessary for Australia.
In my view the necessary administrative functions of the “Governor General in Council” can be written down, inserted into the constitution and then administered by a panel of retired High Court and Federal Court Judges (appointments to which are strictly an honorarium and for a non renewable 4 or 5 year term. Selection to this panel would be a simple process of seniority).
Any ‘disputes’ leading to genuine constitutional crisis can be resolved by a petitioner in the High Court – which would sit as a ‘Chapter 3’ Court and hence exercise judicial power: so there would be no “separation of powers” problem.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 2:52 pm
You’re prepared to go to a lot of trouble to decide who gets to play dress-ups. The duties and powers of the State have substance. The occupant of the office does not. There is a considerable difference between style and substance in this instance. The two are very profoundly conflated.
Your notion does not dispense with a H-O-S. It simply replaces an individual with a committee. This is an unnecessary complexity.
In any case, this is to ignore the constitutional quicksand of the ‘reserve powers’.
Nicko @ #847 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 2:18 pm
Versus staying in a country that would literally arrest him for exposing its secrets? Or any of its allies, who would literally arrest and extradite him back to the US? He pretty much had to take whatever was being offered from the non-US-ally side of the street. It was that or jail (if not worse).
You realize that between when Snowden did his thing and the Ukraine war there’s an entire 9 years, right? Even Crimea hadn’t happened yet. Putin hadn’t started throwing Novichok around everywhere. Those things can’t undercut his credibility because the time when he needed credibility was well before any of them happened.
Though of course anything he says/doesn’t say about Russia now has to be taken with a huge grain of salt, because as you correctly point out he risks his freedom if not his life if he goes on record opposing anything Putin has done. That’s the price he pays now (and probably for the rest of his life) for doing the right thing way back in 2013.
C@tmomma @ #856 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 2:44 pm
America shouldn’t have been spying on basically everybody en masse, including its own citizens, in the first place. Having been outed doing exactly that, America should have granted amnesty to the person(s) responsible for the outing and fixed the actual problem of secret mass-surveillance.
America wanted to play ‘Shoot the Messenger’ instead of acting responsibly. Can’t really fault Snowden for anything that happened after. A smart messenger doesn’t sit around waiting to get shot.
What did Snowden do to warrant taking medicine from the US? The real crime was what the US was doing, not the fact that they were exposed doing it.
Hard not to laugh. Some whinging on the radio atm about the demise of a regional footy company. Maybe if they didn’t so relentlessly pursue cheap itinerant labour there would still be enough people around to populate the towns and volunteer at the games.
Now they need to (shock horror) amalgamate and (shock horror) drive long distances to games. They will be asking for travel subsidies next.
A panel of retired judges would have some tenure. This is a problem. The H-o-S is not/are not elected. They should have no tenure. They should be subject to summary dismissal, as is the PM. They exercise great power in trust, on good behaviour and with the knowledge they can be sacked in a split second. Good.
Talking of the many and varied “Bludger Wars”, haven’t seen Wayne, Bree or Freda for some time. Fallen in the line of battle. Lars did post something the other day about the Irish.
Rarely see Steelydan too. Mustn’t have anything to pluck. Only old mate Taylormade throws the odd line in for a laugh.
Bushfire Bill – I take it is still in the Sin Bin???
Our “Great Helmsman”, William, I am sure uses past battles, plus our current rants and raves in his studies and good luck to him. Plus it’s keeps us off the streets.
There was talk in previous “wars” that William was Wayne or Bree and testing us to some degree.
There was talk in previous “wars” that William was Wayne or Bree and testing us to some degree.
———————————
That would require a devilish sense of humour. Now, I don’t know about you, but I have never seen WB and a smile in the same room together.
Maybe he keeps it hidden. Maybe PB has driven it out of him.
Japan, Taiwan and now Hong Kong announcing the end of quarantine. Only the home of the virus is left (along with North Korea).
I always thought Taiwan should open earlier. Makes their Mainland cousins look plain silly. Plus the more foreigners in Taiwan IMHO the less chance of invasion.
Upnorth at 3:08 pm
A couple of software glitches in William’s ‘Matrix’ 🙂
poroti says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 3:15 pm
Upnorth at 3:08 pm
There was talk in previous “wars” that William was Wayne or Bree and testing us to some degree.
A couple of software glitches in William’s ‘Matrix’
中华人民共和国
Matrix made me dizzy – but I do believe William has the abilitiy
Old Hat @ #858 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 2:58 pm
I can’t speak for AE. But that the State continues is clear. That someone is obliged to exercise the power of the State is clear. That it must be a single person is less clear. Who that might be is also unclear. I’m not making a case either way.
What I’m poking at is the apparent need by many for a ritual that generates a sense of continuity and belonging. Given the past 10 days it’s easy to see that desire as “dress up”, but it may be a mistake to dismiss it as secondary.
Upnorth at 3:16 pm
If you were god aka WB and got to observe the ‘world below’ could you bite your tongue forever as you observed the blog and the FMDs and OMGs ? Or would you occasionally sally forth with an avatar to let off a bit of steam/frustration ?
poroti says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 3:31 pm
Upnorth at 3:16 pm
If you were god aka WB and got to observe the ‘world below’ could you bite your tongue forever as you observed the blog and the FMDs and OMGs ? Or would you occasionally sally forth with an avatar to let off a bit of steam/frustration ?
中华人民共和国
Oh I’d be there with bells on cobber (which is why I don’t have a blog or Facebook or Twitter etc). WB shows remarkable fortitude – though I am sure he “pisses” himself laughing (sorry SK (Jan)) privately at us!
Well, are we going to see Labor do a dirty deal with the Libs on FICAC in order to bypass the Teal/Greens …?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/23/peter-dutton-confirms-coalition-in-talks-to-pass-labors-anti-corruption-commission-bill
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 3:39 pm
Well, are we going to see Labor do a dirty deal with the Libs on FICAC in order to bypass the Teal/Greens …?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/23/peter-dutton-confirms-coalition-in-talks-to-pass-labors-anti-corruption-commission-bill
中华人民共和国
No
Upnorth at 3:38 pm
Yes, I’d imagine you would be very much Smiting God rather than the St. William of Bigly Forbearance type 🙂
Upnorth preps for another day of monitoring his blog.
@old hat:
“ Your notion does not dispense with a H-O-S. It simply replaces an individual with a committee. This is an unnecessary complexity.”
A bit like the very successful “Committee for the Execution of the Office of Lord High Admiral” used to dilute the power and influence of the catholic Howard family at Court …
Complexity? What complexity? Whichever sleepy ex judge is rostered on to sign a bunch of papers that the GG currently does.
Writing down the functions of ‘the committee executing the functions of head of the executive council’ and putting that into the constitution does away with the horse-shit legacy of ‘reserve powers’ that exist in a constititional monarchy.
You then mentioned the ‘problem’ with tenure. Again, what problem? The retired judges already have their judicial pension. Therefore there would be no ‘fear’ that they may act in a partisan fashion when exercising their administrative functions. After 5 years, off they go. Done.
You seem to be in desperate need to find ‘technical problems’ with a simple idea that could sweep away the vestiges of the ancien régime. Now WHY would that be, exactly?
poroti says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 3:47 pm
Upnorth at 3:38 pm
Yes, I’d imagine you would be very much Smiting God rather than the St. William of Bigly Forbearance type
中华人民共和国
You know cobber, I think this site bloody wonderful. Much smarter people on here than me and that’s you included. We all have different points, values and mores. I tend to wear me heart on me sleeve, and hey that’s ok. But I also love reading other views. Sometimes I do change my thoughts (after careful consideration) but there a few tenents I hold dear.
As a society, some (most) would look at we Bludgers as being a bit “nutty” (don’t talk politics or religion) but all you cobbers make my day. I’ve chosen to live outside Oz for work and family reasons which is why PB is my first port of call in the morning.
You stay safe matey.
The level of reporting by MSM re Russian citizens fleeing Russia to evade military call-up bemuses me.
Where is the reporting on Conscription in Australia, to provide troop numbers to fight a War in Vietnam?
A law which cost over 200 20 year old Conscripts their lives for having their birth dates drawn from a barrel – and caused injury and illness to thousands more?
And what was the outcome of the War in Vietnam?
Australia and the USA fled, with their collective tails between their legs.
The MSM in Australia really is the uneducated telling their fellow uneducated what they do not know (or choose not to know).
In Australia, if you did not comply with the Conscription Law you were jailed.
And you could not leave Australia.
In Russia, from MSM reporting, citizens can cross borders to escape Conscription.
Wonderful place, Australia, hey?
So expert in offering description of the circumstances within the borders of other Nations – ignoring the tawdry past of Australia and Australians.
Which is exactly why these issues with our First Nation people persist.
And that is just for starters.
Then we get to truth being the first casualty of War – so whose reporting are we seeing across MSM?
And who trusts MSM?
And on the “Head of State”, firstly, why a foreign citizen?
Then you simply change the Constitution to refer to an Australian as Head of State, that Head of State elected by the Parliament (which is elected by us).
Nothing else changes.
Thanks as always BK, we’re off to Verona now for a day trip.
“ From Moscow, Andrew Roth writes about summons delivered to eligible men at midnight. Schoolteachers pressed into handing out draft notices. Men given an hour to pack their things and appear at draft centres. Women sobbing as they sent their husbands and sons off to fight in Russia’s war in Ukraine.”
Looks like things might not be all that Putin suggested in terms of numbers of conscripts, could be significantly larger apparently. The methodologies chosen also seem somewhat arbitrary. A lottery sounds bad enough however I get a sense that regional mayors have the opportunity to chose those who will serve which by definition suggests they have the ability to protect others.
IMHO soldiering too is a young man’s (I believe they’re not conscripting women) game so forcing 50yr old males who have likely already experienced difficult lives seems unduly harsh but then such is the nature of mobilisation. I suspect Putin’s support will drop somewhat out in the regions come the next Russian ‘democratic’ election.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/russia-mobilisation-ukraine-war-army-drive
Rex Douglas @ #871 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 3:39 pm
Lol, Rex Douglas.
What makes a deal “cosy”? Is working with the Greens and Teals a “cosy deal”?
The fact that Dutton sees the need to get out of the way of the NACC is a big win, especially for those who were complaining that the bill might not get passed this year.
Let’s see the bill when it is introduce before the attacks.
Simon Katich @ #864 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 3:11 pm
Mr Bowe has a sense of humour but it is as dry as a dead Dingo’s donger or the Nullarbor, take your pick. And sometimes he is truly inscrutable. 🙂
Why would Labor even engage with the corrupt Libs. They are irrelevant, except if you want their vote to do a dirty deal on a watered down FICAC.
mimhoff @ #880 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 4:07 pm
Exactly. It’s as if The Greens and the Teals think that only they can come to a deal with the government. Besides, if the Coalition deal with the government fairly and squarely then they can’t complain and next time they get into government (after about a dozen years I’m hoping), then they won’t hobble it.
Rex Douglas @ #882 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 4:12 pm
You came first in Creative Writing class, didn’t you, Rex Douglas? 😐
“Meanwhile, Donald Trump has claimed presidents can declassify documents by the power of thought alone. Speaking to Sean Hannity of Fox News in an interview broadcast on Wednesday, the former US president said: “Different people say different things but as I understand it, if you’re the president of the United States, you can declassify just by saying it’s declassified, even by thinking about it.”
I had thought this might’ve been a slight beat up but no, he actually said that! In colloquial terms, WTF? Who cannot imagine this creature is entirely delusional?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/22/trump-sean-hannity-interview-fox-news-mar-a-lago-documents-thought
Do we seriously think the Libs have seen the light and done a 180 on a proper FICAC ..?
Defense has released on FOI a copy of the Change of Government briefing to the new Minister, heavily redacted.
https://www.defence.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-09/514_2122_documents.pdf
The interesting bits start on page 20:
– our maritime surveillance and response will be further improved by the acquisition of two P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, bringing the total to 14, paired with three MQ-4C Triton remotely piloted aircraft;
– all six Collins class submarines will have their operating life extended (starting in 2026) and their capabilities improved. This will underpin transition to the nuclear-powered submarines in the late 2030s
Lots of questions:
– why are they still growing the army? Most experts think it needs to shrink in favour of RAN and RAAF growth?
– Why are they still showing the new tanks (not needed) but not the high cost new APC program (also not needed)?
Boerwar says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 8:10 am
“As comrade Jughashvili observed, numbers have a quality all of their own.
Russia has a pool of around 20-22 million 18-45 year olds.
Ukraine has a pool of around 6-7 million 18-45 year olds.”
It’s true that numerical superiority has value but these numbers are also logistically significant. They must be fed, clothed, armed, resupplied and transported by a highly competent system. These things are all possible to an extent and for a time but they must also occur in a context. Is it Winter? Are they under fire? Are they being well led? The one thing they simply cannot be supplied with is morale.
Good faith doesn’t exist in the L/NP.
Labor shouldn’t engage with the corrupt Libs ON ANYTHING ..!!!
These negotiations are extremely troubling.
One could be forgiven for thinking Chrysanthou is on another loser here….
Chrysanthou accused Crikey of “publicly claiming martyrdom … because they’re being sued by someone wealthy” while “mock[ing] my client on public billboards” in Melbourne
The advertisements, promising “fearless news and views daily”, also included the tag lines “mogul free journalism” on the billboards and “not for the thin skinned” in print.
Since when has stating true facts been mocking.. & in any case what’s wrong with a well placed mock.. especially when directed at a thin skinned oligarch ?
Rex
How about we wait and see if (a) a deal is done and (b) what the result is before we start clutching the pearls?
It’s quite possible that (a) won’t happen – but Labor will be able to say that it tried to consult with EVERYONE.
If (a) does happen, AND the proposed legislation measures up, then potentially we have an ICAC supported by virtually the whole of Parliament, which would be an excellent result – democracy at work.
This is the man the Liberals decided to piss off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BT5nXDhtOo&ab_channel=CNN
DeeThanks Poroti. According to the freedom fighters in here Snowden should have taken his medicine and copped a malicious and inhuman prosecution for exposing a crime?
I mean. Really. It’s extraordinary. Talk about Keyboard warriors. C@tmomma. Victoria. Please. Get off your high horse, keyboard and get out and smell the roses. Oh and change the channel away from Fox and CNN please. And stop streaming all those Hollywood fantasy movies you like to think you are part of. Rambo wannabes.
When’s the next meeting of the cos player wolverines wannabes? Got your costume ready?
The L/NP is corrupt.
You don’t engage with corrupt outfits.
There’s no way for Labor partisans to spin these negotiations as good.
From the Guardian live blog:
Is anyone surprised by this? Australia is rapidly becoming a one-party state.
Maybe they’re upset they lost the cosy deal they made with Scott Morrison over staffing numbers.
Imacca
“ The reports that Putin is giving direct orders to front commanders is very disturbing and remarkably dangerous for all sides and participants in this conflict. ”
Do you happen to have any links to these reports? I only ask because they would support my hypothesis from early this morning (3am) that the disaster so far appears to have Putin’s fingerprints all over it rather than the Generals’.
C@tmommasays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 4:14 pm
Mindless repetition hardly demonstrates creativity.
It seems there is a major issue with premature ejaculation in Australian politics at the moment.