Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)

A dent to Labor’s still commanding lead from Resolve Strategic, as it and Essential Research disagree on the trajectory of Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.

The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.

Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.

The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.

The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.

Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:

• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.

• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)”

Comments Page 17 of 39
1 16 17 18 39
  1. Late Riser at 10.27

    BK dawn patrol – continuing thanks.

    Regarding Waleed Aly’s piece:
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/forget-a-president-here-s-another-idea-20220921-p5bk02.html
    ____________

    I couldn’t access the article – not interested in ‘registering’ with Costello.

    I presume Waleed was trying to find something “not-presidential” because it’s too political and “not monarchical” because, despite the “magic,” it’s just logically ridiculous (cf Monty Pythons’ “strange women, lying in ponds, distributing swords…” critique.)

    The notion of an Elder as Head of State could be a hat-tip to First Nations cultures. How does Waleed envision such an Elder being appointed?

    If we want to maximise the magic, Crown Princess Mary of Denmark is from Tassie – she just happened to marry a prince. Her first child is heir to Denmark, so taken. Her second child, Isabella, is the “royal in the world with most Australian blood” and could be invited to be our Head of State. There’s magic in that. A further bonus – Isabella is 15, so it would be good to provide a greater legislative framework for the exercise of the Head of State’s powers.

    Of course, I don’t believe we need an individual as Head of State – or a committee. We don’t need our State embodied in a person – in fact, such embodiment contradicts diversity.

    The Chief Justice of the High Court can swear in govts; legislation can dictate what happens in (predictable) crises such as loss of a confidence motion in the House. Less predictable cases can be resolved by a majority in either the House or Senate sending a question/proposition to the Full Bench of the High Court for determination, analogous to the way the High Court currently sits as the Court of Disputed Returns…

    What would’ve happened in 1975 if the only way for Fraser to get a general election was to win some sort of case before the High Court (e.g. a case that the House and Senate were deadlocked and this could only be resolved by a general election)? Of course, Whitlam could argue before the Court that a half-Senate election was constitutional and feasible (could be concluded before the govt ran out of money.)

    The Full Bench, none of whom (unlike Kerr) could be sacked by the PM, would hear the arguments and decide on law. I suspect the conservative (in the true sense) Full Bench would’ve decided for a half Senate election, probably conditional on it being carried out by a certain date and, on the proviso that, should that election fail to resolve the deadlock, a general election be called by a certain second date.

    We don’t need an individual Head of State – except if we like “magic,” for which monarchy can’t be beat.

  2. Snappy Tom, I use “private” mode to open SMH articles. You get an annoying prompt floating near the bottom of the page, but the articles are readable.

  3. The world’s largest space forum will be held in Sydney in 2025, attracting thousands of visitors and bringing millions of dollars in tourism to the state. The International Astronautical Congress will bring together academics, space industry professionals and space organisations to improve the global cosmic agenda.

    Sydney beat Bangkok, Beijing and Istanbul to secure the coveted 2025 hosting rights.

    (guardian live)

  4. Themunz @ #734 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 11:44 am

    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11:32 am
    tl:dr Elon Musk:

    “Everything, all the time.”

    Que?

    To me Elon Musk has this manic approach to life which is manifest as, he’s going to go to mars, he’s going to do EVs, he’s going to try and do Hyperloop, he’s going to have as many children as humanly possible, he’s going to come to Adelaide and make the Big Battery, he’s going to go into Renewables, he’s going to go into AI, and now, he’s advocating for fossil fuels. Who kn ows what next?

    Everything. All the time.

  5. Barney in Cherating @ #795 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 11:43 am

    I don’t think Howard was the worst PM.

    I do certainly think he was the most damaging PM, especially with the legacy he left in the Liberal Party.

    I think socrates’ delineation was on the mark: ultimately the most damaging, and therefore the worst. It’s semantics I suppose about what defines the worst. I come down on the side of damage done.

  6. Snappy Tom at 11:53 am
    I like the High Court suggestion. How about a ‘hybrid hybrid’ and have a separate court just for such matters.? To keep with the federal spirit it will be composed of one representative from each State/Territory. Given the infrequency of its likely convening it shouldn’t become a partisan circus a la US Supreme Court.

  7. Snappy Tom at 11:53 am

    A quote from Aly’s piece.

    My best summary is that the monarch becomes the personification of the nation itself. Every nation needs a “we”. Some symbol that stands in for the whole. For monarchists, the monarchy is the best available. Its magic therefore derives from it being the opposite of our politics.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/forget-a-president-here-s-another-idea-20220921-p5bk02.html

    The problem for me is that it’s a magic that diminishes us. What I see in Aly’s piece is one effect of the discussion on The Voice, that it has broadened our sense of self to allow a discussion of indigenous magic from which we might benefit and grow.

  8. We live in a capitalist society, so discounting business is as bad as discounting labour when making decisions. There needs to be a balance between the two.

    The Liberals have deliberately marginalised workers, so it’s positive to see Labor redressing that imbalance without going to the extreme.

  9. Well I like my rotating “Head of State” model between the Australian Male and Female Test Cricket Teams. Official title as I have said before “Skipper of the Republic of Australia”.

    It’s got to be better than have “Charles in Charge”.

  10. As if the week can get any worse for the AFL…

    The GF parade down the Yarra River has left hundreds of spectators furious as the boats turned around 500m early.

    (The Age online)

  11. Poroti at 12.06

    Maybe we could call it the Constitutional Court.

    My only concern is I’d like to be sure we weren’t overly diluting judicial talent by having separate Constitutional Court (designed to be only required infrequently) and High Court (not limited to constitutional matters) benches.

    Maybe something underneath the High Court – like beefing up the Federal Court by expanding its resources and transferring some of the High Court’s less stellar responsibilities to the Federal Court?

  12. Barney in Cherating says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:12 pm

    We live in a capitalist society, so discounting business is as bad as discounting labour when making decisions. There needs to be a balance between the two.

    The Liberals have deliberately marginalised workers, so it’s positive to see Labor redressing that imbalance without going to the extreme.
    中华人民共和国
    + 1 cobber – well said.

  13. C@tmomma @ #797 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 12:02 pm

    Themunz @ #734 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 11:44 am

    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11:32 am
    tl:dr Elon Musk:

    “Everything, all the time.”

    Que?

    To me Elon Musk has this manic approach to life which is manifest as, he’s going to go to mars, he’s going to do EVs, he’s going to try and do Hyperloop, he’s going to have as many children as humanly possible, he’s going to come to Adelaide and make the Big Battery, he’s going to go into Renewables, he’s going to go into AI, and now, he’s advocating for fossil fuels. Who kn ows what next?

    Everything. All the time.

    He’s going to buy Twitter.

  14. Snappy Tom at 12:14 pm

    Maybe we could call it the Constitutional Court.

    My only concern is I’d like to be sure we weren’t overly diluting judicial talent by having separate Constitutional Court

    How about the court be composed of retired ’eminent’ legal eagles and there being an age cap ? That should help with the ‘dilution’ problem with the bonus of a fairly high turnover rate.

  15. laughtong says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:18 pm

    The Victorian Liberal Party is facing a second probe over its fundraising activities following a “Ditch Dan” blitz last month which raised more than $500,000 for the opposition’s state election campaign.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorian-liberals-face-second-donations-probe-for-ditch-dan-campaign-20220922-p5bk59.html

    Libs squeaky clean while ALP isn’t. I don’t think so.
    中华人民共和国
    LOL Taylormade

  16. ItzaDreamsays:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:03 pm

    Barney in Cherating @ #795 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 11:43 am

    I don’t think Howard was the worst PM.

    I do certainly think he was the most damaging PM, especially with the legacy he left in the Liberal Party.

    I think socrates’ delineation was on the mark: ultimately the most damaging, and therefore the worst. It’s semantics I suppose about what defines the worst. I come down on the side of damage done.

    Yep, it comes down to semantics.

    I place a higher value on how functional the Government is.

    The Coalition Governments since Howard have often failed to reach an acceptable position within the Party room, even when a majority of the Parliament would accept the proposed position.

  17. I see Edward Snowden still has nothing to say about the situation in the country he defected to. Yet he still has lots to say about the USA.

  18. Late Riser says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:09 pm

    Snappy Tom at 11:53 am

    A quote from Aly’s piece.

    My best summary is that the monarch becomes the personification of the nation itself. Every nation needs a “we”. Some symbol that stands in for the whole. For monarchists, the monarchy is the best available. Its magic therefore derives from it being the opposite of our politics.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/forget-a-president-here-s-another-idea-20220921-p5bk02.html

    The problem for me is that it’s a magic that diminishes us. What I see in Aly’s piece is one effect of the discussion on The Voice, that it has broadened our sense of self to allow a discussion of indigenous magic from which we might benefit and grow.
    ____________

    Waleed reckons every nation needs a “we.” What we don’t need is the “we” personified in an “I” – a Head of State. Personifying the collective is actually the reason for Heads of State, whether they be monarchs or presidents.

    As I type, I’m imagining some quips from Upnorth about the need for we/wee…go for your life, cobber!

    The need for personifying the “we” in an “I” is what 1) diminishes the rest of us by falsely elevating the Head of State; and 2) loads unreasonable expectations onto those in the Head of State orbit, as has been seen in the Princess Diana and Harry/Meghan things.

    No individual can adequately personify the collective. Any sense of Head of State “magic” is illusory. How about we limit the question to “what is needed to ensure 1) respect for all individuals within the collective; and 2) good governance?”

    1) rules out monarchy because monarchy has to assume one family is above the rest.

    2) should never be arbitrated by an individual.

    Full Bench of the High Court for me!

    PS In the great Australian spirit of taking the piss out of things, I’m also fully on board with Upnorth’s “rotating wo/men’s cricket captain as head of state” model, provided we use Adam Hills’ version of our national anthem, set to Barnsey’s “Working Class Man”…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiEycVMKoJo

  19. Snappy Tom says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:30 pm

    PS In the great Australian spirit of taking the piss out of things, I’m also fully on board with Upnorth’s “rotating wo/men’s cricket captain as head of state” model, provided we use Adam Hills’ version of our national anthem, set to Barnsey’s “Working Class Man”…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiEycVMKoJo
    中华人民共和国
    You cobber are a genius!

  20. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:02 pm

    Thanks.

    Yes, in my life time he is a one off.

    His hit rate of successes is astounding, he has seldom failed.

    Currently he is doing everything in his power to transition us to renewable power and appreciates the scale of the problem more than most.

    His recognition of the continuing need for nonrenewable energy during the transition reflects his assessment that even with the very best of intention it is going to take some time.

  21. I see Gillon has been conscripted to manage one final scandal to a satisfactory conclusion for the AFL snouters.

    The master of damage control will uses all resources in his armoury including AFL media partners to neatly shift blame to individuals deemed expendable whilst protecting individuals deemed financial assets to the industry.

  22. Well cobbers I gotta hit the “frog and toad”. Time, tide and Queensland Railways waits for no one.

    Will check in later. Youse all stay safe and don’t run with scissors.

  23. There seems to be growing recognition among Victorians that the Vic Libs have well and truly lost their way.

    Overrun by far right religious extremists and running out of financial backing sources. They’re stuck in tram lines headed for the extreme fringes and ultimate irrelevance.

  24. Insider warns Trump’s serious cognitive problems revealed in Hannity interview

    Former President Donald Trump appears to be suffering from cognitive impairment, a former top Trump Organization insider explained on CNN on Thursday evening.

    On Wednesday evening, Trump told Fox News personality Sean Hannity he could declassify documents telepathically. Trump’s claim was met with scorn and derision, described as “obscenely reckless,” and disputed by GOP senators.

    For analysis, CNN’s Sara Sidner interviewed Michael Cohen.

    “There’s something very different about Donald Trump today than the Donald Trump I remember at the Trump Organization,” Cohen said.

    “He knew what documents were there. I mean, there’s nuclear documents and we don’t even know which ones that they are, we don’t know what country they relate to,” Cohen said. “And I believe he took those documents and all of them in order to use against the United States in the event that he is indicted or potentially incarcerated. “It’s a ‘get out of jail free’ card. ”

    https://www.rawstory.com/trump-mental-cognitive/

  25. Victoria. Are you serious about Snowden? What do you expect him to do? Sign his own death warrant.

    Go back to complaining about trial by media for the poor AFL.

  26. Peter Dutton is happy about the meeting Penny Wong held with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, but he also seems to think that all the issues with the China-Australia relationship should also be fixed by now:
    ______________
    Yes, it’s four months since Morrison and Dutton were turfed. What more could Albanese and Wong want?

  27. A W.A. style wipe out would be fabulous , then N.S.W. next year .
    Don’t worry about Tassie , i just lived there for 12 years and they are mostly a bunch of whinging appose everything mainland hating Luddite’s who still think they should be able to clear-fell the world heritage wilderness because the only real jobs are cutting down 600 year old trees.

  28. BKsays:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 1:15 pm

    Peter Dutton is happy about the meeting Penny Wong held with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, but he also seems to think that all the issues with the China-Australia relationship should also be fixed by now:
    ______________
    Yes, it’s four months since Morrison and Dutton were turfed. What more could Albanese and Wong want?

    Dutton is seriously downplaying the Liberal Party’s abilities.

    When they fuck something up, they don’t go for half measures.

  29. wranslide @ #826 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 1:11 pm

    Victoria. Are you serious about Snowden? What do you expect him to do? Sign his own death warrant.

    Moreover, he’s not the enemy. He did every US citizen a service by exposing the government’s secret and unethical, if not flat out illegal, domestic mass-surveillance operations. He did so for no personal gain, and in fact at great personal risk and cost.

    Unlike, say, Trump, whose only motives for mishandling classified information appear to be blackmail and self-preservation.

    Proposal: Give Trump asylum in Russia, and let Snowden come back and live in Mar-a-Lago.

  30. A. R. I agree. But you know America and all and our defenders and freedom fighters we must attack in a weird partisan way those that the US administration deem enemies of the state.

    Russia offered him asylum. Victoria would have him sign his own death warrant and or be politically prosecuted for what? Collaery is probably a hero in their eyes but Snowden a traitor cause I dunno what.

  31. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:51 pm

    Not one mention of the current homelessness crisis.

    Those living below the poverty line sleeping in their cars with their kids due to soaring rent and inflation have been left behind.
    ————————–
    Its a state government issue.

  32. wranslide at 1:26 pm
    It all goes back to the great Hilary vs Obama Bludger War. It was a Blog, Somme or Stalingrad. Prisoners were not taken .Snowden’s mortal sin was to years later be seen, by some, as helping to stop Hilary getting her ‘turn’ .

  33. Rex Douglas says:
    Crazy that the SCOTUS can override a lower court ruling on an execution without giving reasons.
    ——————–
    Higher level courts take precedents over lower courts in all countries that follow the English legal system.

  34. Anyhoo the gossip on the Hawthorn saga.

    My suspicions were correct.

    Jed Anderson who is currently playing for North and out of contract, went to the media with his accusations. He wasnt happy that Clarko was going to be his coach.

    The coaching musical chairs currently appears as follows

    Fagan to resign from Brisbane and Brad Scott gets the gig.
    Essendon to get Hird under guidance of Kevin Sheedy which is ridiculous in my view.

    Clarko is undecided at this stage. If he can sufficiently clear his name, he stays at North.

  35. Trump knows what he is doing. Preparing the ground for cray cray defense. Its all he has left.

    Thats what cornered traitors do.

    And i notice michael flynn is playing the same game.

  36. on the subject of worst PM, for mine it has to be Morrison.

    Obviously ‘worst’ is pretty subjective, as others have mentioned.

    John Howard was terrible for the country, no 2 ways about it. Many of the current problems we face can be directly sheeted home to the rodent. However I get the sense that Howard really believed in a lot of what he said and did, and was trying to run the country in what he saw as the public interest. I of course would fundamentally disagree with the man and his ideology, and came of age (politically and literally) during his tenure

    Tony abbot was a joke, but he was punted before even a single term (and rightly so), and even in Tony I get the sense that he had certain principles. Awful ones, to be sure, but principles.

    Turnbull was a lame duck ultimately

    but Morrison….. In Morrison it seems abundantly clear that he was only EVER in it for himself, and that he has absolutely no principles whatsoever except for gaining and exercising power. I simply can’t think of a politician in my lifetime as dishonest, secretive, or bullying as morrison. Even for a liberal PM he absolutely trashed all conventions and norms of government, taking pork barreling, corruption and secrecy to staggering new heights (or lows?), and for someone as in your face and active in the media as he was, he still managed to be both lazy AND incompetent – his many f*ckups are legion

    so yeah, for me it just has to be Morrison

  37. Ahh that’s explains it Poroti. Thanks for pointing it out. Ahh Hilary. And USA all the way. Wonder if Victoria and c@t will be signing up their loved ones into another failed US war?

    But Snowden.

  38. Snowden’s problem is lack of credibility. Willing to sacrifice his freedom to expose US abuses of power.
    But taking up protection from a country that literally arrest people for protesting. But even more so will murder critics and now the Ukrainian war.
    If you don’t like how the US does things. Then how can you sit back and be silent about Russia, sure he would fear for his life, but it also undercuts his credibility.

  39. Snappy Tom says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:30 pm

    “PS In the great Australian spirit of taking the piss out of things, I’m also fully on board with Upnorth’s “rotating wo/men’s cricket captain as head of state” model, provided we use Adam Hills’ version of our national anthem, set to Barnsey’s “Working Class Man”…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiEycVMKoJo

    Brilliant, thanks. I haven’t seen that before.

    And if you install Firefox as a web-browser (free download on a Mac) the private window view option soles the access problem.

Comments Page 17 of 39
1 16 17 18 39

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *