Two contributions from Roy Morgan: its weekly report video tells us this week’s federal polling has Labor’s lead unchanged at 53.5-46.5, without offering any information on primary votes, and it has an SMS poll of 1012 respondents conducted on Sunday that found a 60-40 split in favour of retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic, albeit it might be faulted for having been conducted at an uncommonly opportune moment for monarchist sentiment.
The Australian also reported yesterday that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state; cost of living, health care and employment as the top priorities; “nearly half” trusting Daniel Andrews to lead the state through pandemic challenges compared with 16% for Matthew Guy; and 57% holding the view that the state was headed in the right direction, the highest of any state. Conversely, 53% of New South Wales respondents felt the state was heading in the wrong direction and only 35% believed the Perrottet government was doing a good job, the worst results for any state, although sample sizes in some cases would have been very small. The polling was conducted from August 31 to September 5 from a sample of 1502, 600 of whom were in Victoria.
Finally, the first batch of submissions – 212 of them – have been published from the Joint Standing Committe on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into the federal election. I haven’t had time to read any of them myself, but there are a good many notable names featured, though nothing yet from the parties.
With a ‘day of mourning’ on Thursday there should be some bigly absenteeism figures coming out of The Cave this Friday. This weekend is our
Queen’sKing’s Birthday long weekend. A 5 day break will be very tempting“ I wonder what measures BW has considered in dealing with the 1 million Chinese Australians in the event of hostilities between Australia and China. Surely such an august strategist must have contemplated the next steps.”
Internment camps outside Cowra? A useful source of seasonal labour for our hard done by farmers …
TPOF, re megalomaniac leader theory…..
Another option. To bring in porotis point, there are some seriously deranged people in the PRC and CCP who take patriotism to absurd levels due in no small part to the history of China. China is now great again and many are drunk with it. These people form silos in the ministry of foreign affairs (for example), then factions. They compete for space in the ministry and policy wins with the more level headed factions. And leaders in such places just do whatever to stay the leader – the captain of a rudderless ship.
China could have increased its power by just continuing with its economic growth and its soft power plays in Central Asia, Africa and the Pacific. They could have just waited for the US to sink or, at best, tread water. What they have done instead points to a failure of internal politics or, something lurking in their economy forcing their hand, or an irrational leader.
If Edward the Eighth had remained on the throne and out lived the Duke of York, then Elizabeth who has at the time of the abdication was third in line, would have become Queen. That is how primogeniture works.
Edward VIII did outlive the Duke of York and assuming there was no abdication wouldn’t the last surviving son of George V (the Duke of Gloucester) be next in line.
TPOF says:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 1:27 pm
Kelta says:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 1:15 pm
Sorry Upnorth , but i seem to remember the poms giving Hongkong back to China.
I don’t remember an invasion…
_____________________________
There is a difference. With Hong Kong, Xi broke an international agreement (which he would regard as imposed, like the original treaties that gave HK to the UK) by taking before China had agreed.
中华人民共和国
Also the Poms only gave up Hong Kong Island and Kowloon which China, under duress, had ceded in
Perpetuity in the first “Opium War” in 1842.
The New Territories (which comprise 82% of Hong Kong) were leased from China by the United Kingdom in 1898 for 99 years in the Second Convention of Peking (The Convention for the Extension of Hong Kong Territory). Upon the expiry of the lease, sovereignty was transferred to the People’s Republic of China in 1997, together with the ceded territories of Hong Kong Island and Kowloon Peninsula.
I have heard that Thatcher wanted to keep Hong Kong Island and Kowloon Peninsula and only hand back the New Territories. When she was shown where the new border would be and the fact that HK would run out of food and water in days should the PRC stop supply, she quickly agreed to the arrangement.
@ Kelta my coment about Hong Kong concerned recent events and effective abolition of the “One Coutry Two Systems” agreement. I never mentioned an invasion of Hong Kong.
@poliphili:
“ A_E
Great work this morning thank you.
Pleased you have made the time to take it up to the armchair warriors.”
____
Thanks, but discerning bludgers may have already accurately speculated that I’ve got a rare day out of court and I am in chambers work avoiding on settling some outstanding written submissions. …
nath says:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 12:48 pm
Asha is somewhat fixated on the prospect of Dutton being removed. I don’t see it. The Queenslanders are by far the biggest grouping in the Liberal Party and I think they will be loyal enough to Dutton to give him a shot at an election.
中华人民共和国
Pot, Kettle, Black, Shorten 🙂
BK
Because to hear him, or any of his scurvy crew mates, is a reminder that he and they are no longer in government.That he and his mates have joined the feather duster brigade.Very pleasant thoughts.To actually take notice of or taking seriously what he says is not required.
Some interesting insights on the Chinese in Australia by the lowy inst. Just go to the tables.
https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/chinese-communities/reports/2022%20Being%20Chinese%20in%20Australia%20Poll%20%E2%80%93%20Lowy%20Institute.pdf
Stooge at 12.03 and 12.34 pm
Correct re tragedy. It is global now because of the anthropocene. In a video in May Varoufakis used the metaphor of astronauts polluting their only spaceship. The question of who has economic power is vital. The first half of this video from May is about Putin’s war, the rest about broader economic and political trends. He has been warning about a resurgence of fascism in Europe for several years. That is mentioned briefly in answer to the last question. Le Pen and Meloni are fascists.
Russia’s trade surplus in 2021 was US$95 billion; in 2022 it’s about US$250 billion.
See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wR_JATpB5ag
Re Australian appeasement and Nazism, here is a review of a book by Chris Waters:
https://sci-hub.hkvisa.net/10.1080/10361146.2012.704864 A summary:
“Waters shows that the moral bankruptcy of appeasement lay not in its attempt to avoid war by making concessions to an aggrieved power, but in its tendency to pursue its aims at the expense of weaker countries. The capacity of Australian policymakers such as Lyons, Page, Stanley Melbourne Bruce and Richard Casey to lay the blame for German aggression at the feet of Germany’s victims represented not a disinterested misunderstanding, but wishful thinking that allowed Antipodean leaders to imagine themselves as wise statesmen pursuing the national interest and the good of humanity”.
The extremes to which people will go to avoid mentioning ‘sell out’ is interesting.
The latest desperate attempt is to trail the loyalty of Chinese Australians.
The extremes to which people will go to avoid mentioning ‘sell out’ is interesting.
The latest desperate attempt is to trail the loyalty of Chinese Australians.
A R @ #997 Tuesday, September 20th, 2022 – 1:34 pm
Depends on what you mean by euthanasia, but no. In 4 decades of practice I have not seen anyone choose (or have capacity) to kill themselves in the few weeks before death inevitably occurs in uraemic encephalopathy. The timing of death is not predictable or alterable. There is no off switch in biological systems and the only way to die on demand is to stop someone breathing with barbiturates (opioids are not reliable). A good death (euthanos) is one where symptoms are adequately managed for the duration of the passive & active dying process. Symptom control is what palliative medicine is actually very good at doing – including non-pain related symptoms like nausea & vomiting.
@TPOF:
“ I’m not missing that. Nobody really knows what would happen. At that stage it was too late to avoid a general war that Hitler was absolutely intent on. The only question – and it’s a huge one – is whether going to war against Germany in October 1938 might have made a huge difference by taking on Hitler early. We will never know. The best indicator we have, sadly, is the failure of the British and French to do anything much from September 1939 until the Western blitzkrieg in May 1940.”
______
Just two points in reply:
1. Speculation for sure, but IMO taking on Hitler in 1938 would have been completely against public sentiment and THAT may very very likely have been fatal to Britain’ war effort. A Prime Minister Mosley would have settled on terms with the European fascists before the end of 1940, if not a PM Halifax before then.
2. IMO there was no ‘failure’ of preparation – or activity – in the phoney war period of September 1939-May 1940 by the western allies. By the time of the eastern Blitzkrieg the French and the British IEF were both ready: in terms of troops and matériel at least. It’s just that they were ready for the entirely wrong offensive. Ouch. Had the Germans obliged the French and fought the battle that the French had actually prepared for, the French would have comfortably prevailed, just like Zhokov prevailed in 1943 when the Germans obliged him in the Kursk salient.
@enjaybee
Assuming there was no miracle child (suggestions were Edward VIII was sterile as a result of the mumps) from Edward VIII – Elizabeth would have become Queen under any circumstance where the births/deaths still line up, it might have just been in 1972 instead.
It’s like with Queen Victoria – she was the eldest child of the next eldest sibling of William IV, so the claim went down instead of further sideways. She had living uncles and aunts, but she was heiress presumptive. The Duke of Gloucester would have still been behind Elizabeth and her children and Margaret and her children.
rhwombat @12:33, The best of the lesser mortals fed his mill. I can see how nuclear physics is the mirror of magic. (I’ve started in on Lee Smolin’s “Einstein’s Unfinished Revolution – The search for what lies beyond the quantum”.)
AE @ 1.58
Your first point is a fair point. Although it is still just speculation. We will never know because so many things happen on small turning points.
As for the second point, perhaps the problem was declaring war and then going straight on the defensive. Again, if the Germans had been attacked by Britain and France while they were occupied taking control of Poland, could things have turned out differently? All we know is what we can glean from hindsight.
“ Again, if the Germans had been attacked by Britain and France while they were occupied taking control of Poland, could things have turned out differently? All we know is what we can glean from hindsight.”
France at the very least, wouldn’t understood what you were talking about. An offensive war on German territory was simply beyond their ken. The Brits in September 1939 had nothing to throw at the Germans on land and in Germany directly either. Geez, the Norway campaign of May 1940 should toll the bell on what an IEF could do … and not do … back in 1939 . Only more so if aimed as an amphibious force directly at Germany. As for somehow landing an IEF somewhere in the Baltic in early September 1939 and joining in the Poland campaign. Geez. What a catastrophe in waiting that would have been.
Thank you jt1983 for your explanation.
Fascinating. Russians and the authorities in Donbas are talking an urgent annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk so that if Ukraine push into those areas it allows Russia quasi-legal excuse to attack Nato assets. Now, I know that such a thing would allow Putin to release more resources into the war…. but ffs, what are they thinking? Do they really want to bring that on? ‘We cant hold our territorial gains in Ukraine so, hey, lets take on Nato as well’. Panic stations?
SK
It us hard to credit that story.
Boerwar @ #1020 Tuesday, September 20th, 2022 – 2:32 pm
Oh, sorry….
……
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-19
SK
Oh!
We might try to learn from history. One thing can be gleaned. History is made before it’s written. It’s not written backwards, where the end would be known before the preface had been thought of. History is afterthought. Really, we never really know which chapter is open and which one has just closed. There are volumes both unwritten and unread.
We might try to write the last character in the last word before we wrote anything else, and we could not. That would be the timeless word. Perhaps we could say it was written in spite of history. Or because of it. Well, I do not know. My feet no longer touch the ground, as if I have been using a mirror to draw a tree with a fine point on a blank page. Where is history now, I ask. Where has it gone?
Let ‘er rip. (Victoria excepted.)
The significant difference to be had during the Phoney War would have been full on air war by the UK and France. They paid for that in full.
Simon Katich at 3:07 pm
Jeebus, Fred Kagan and Simonyan. Truckloads of salt and barge poles advised when handling their goods.
Lawrence of MSNBC: Trump chances of Indictment may have skyrocketed.
https://youtu.be/YvIG8LJM05M
”
Poliphilisays:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 12:27 pm
Ven @ 12.07
That was a very gracious response to Stooge. I think Stooge wasn’t meaning to disparage your obvious typo but couldn’t resist the opportunity to pen some rather clever and beautiful prose.
”
Poliphili
Gracias.
Thanks for the Dawn Patrol today BK.
“ But Meloni is also a political chameleon. She changes strategy when it is politically advantageous to do so. In her youth, she openly admired Mussolini and considered him a good politician. But asked in the run-up to the election if she agreed that the fascist leader was bad for Italy, she said “yes.”
“Over the years, she has courted leaders deemed by many to be ultra nationalist, such as Vladimir Putin of Russia, Viktor Orbán of Hungary and Marine Le Pen of France.”
Already twice in two days I’ve heard Meloni having to deny she’s a fascist on Italian TV. Normally the need for such a denunciation would spell disaster for politicians but these are different times, especially here in unpredictable Italy.
https://theconversation.com/giorgia-meloni-the-political-provocateur-set-to-become-italys-first-far-right-leader-since-mussolini-190116
BW, I dont credit it – in that more level heads in the MoD would say – yeah…. nah. But it does show there is some panic in Donbas. I didnt get why Ukraine were continuing to push east into the Luhansk region; I thought it left them rather exposed. But maybe there is a psychological purpose.
Crimea is still the main game. Russia simply can not afford to have an enemy close to their Black Sea fleet for any length of time. It is the one thing that will bring them to the table.
poroti, the Kagans are qualified for such a website. I am yet to find a completely independent and well resourced site that is as reliable (checked) an information source as this one.
Given the $50B improvement to the budget will our right wing Labor Treasurer properly address the Jobseeker rate …?
That seems very…prescriptive. A good death is whatever the person experiencing it deems it to be. If they don’t want to go out like that, they shouldn’t have to. Their agency should be respected as a matter of first principles, before clinical concerns even enter the picture.
Shouldn’t be up to a third party to say that they can either suffer or take the palliative meds and wait, imo. If they want one of those options, fine. If they don’t, also fine. Point is everyone can choose, and no choice is wrong (or forced by professionals, legislators, or anyone else thinking they “know better”).
What is Marles going to do about investigating the brass re their command standards in Afghanistan …?
Toowoomba Wellcamp Airport is to incredibly become a rocket launch site after Virgin Orbit announced plans to blast off satellites there from its Boeing 747s.
The company said on Tuesday it had signed an MOU with Australian infrastructure development company Wagner Corporation that will see it conduct a “demonstrator” launch in 2024. Permanent blast-offs are set to occur within three years.
https://australianaviation.com.au/2022/09/toowoomba-airport-to-become-747-rocket-launch-site/
We really should sort out our ADF command standards before we let them loose in a war with China over Taiwan.
Quite simply, it’s impossible to have confidence in our ADF command if nothing much has changed since Afghanistan.
”
nathsays:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 1:06 pm
I wonder what measures BW has considered in dealing with the 1 million Chinese Australians in the event of hostilities between Australia and China. Surely such an august strategist must have contemplated the next steps.
”
Nath
Are you saying that whenever Australia goes to war at the behest of USA with any country then we have to deal with the Australians of that country origin in a different way?
Are you saying they are Less of a citizen when Australia fights the country of their origin/ heritage?
Is there a legal provision like that?
Is Australian citizenship a multiple tier system?
Nath, you are blowing my mind away. You were upset that OC implied that you were racist.
In what category does your post come under?
Dr Doolittle says:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 1:55 pm
Stooge at 12.03 and 12.34 pm
Correct re tragedy. It is global now because of the anthropocene. In a video in May Varoufakis used the metaphor of astronauts polluting their only spaceship. The question of who has economic power is vital. The first half of this video from May is about Putin’s war, the rest about broader economic and political trends. He has been warning about a resurgence of fascism in Europe for several years. That is mentioned briefly in answer to the last question. Le Pen and Meloni are fascists.
We should all study Conrad some more. Heart of Darkness.
The auto-hypnosis of racism. The fear of a coming fall, or the sensation that we are already falling. The temptations to escapism and the rejection of science; of reason itself. The resort to deceit and to collusion with nativist phobias. I think we have the capacity to become co-conspirators in our own repression. If there’s the logical positivism of Hume, the fascists also employ the logical negativism of Goebbels. Who is exempt? Where is equality in this?
”If Edward the Eighth had remained on the throne and out lived the Duke of York, then Elizabeth who has at the time of the abdication was third in line, would have become Queen.”
If he’d followed the “rules”, gave up Ms Simpson and married a 20-something virgin, his son (who wasn’t born in this reality) might still be on the throne, an octogenarian celebrating his Golden Jubilee.
Holdenhillbilly @ #1035 Tuesday, September 20th, 2022 – 3:25 pm
Is it a rocket launch site tho if the rocket is ‘launched’ from the plane while in flight?
》is it a rocket launch site tho if the rocket is ‘launched’ from the plane while in flight?
Is that any diffrent from a normal rocket launch?
Upnorth
That Resolve poll puts the Greens down 2 to 10. Unless I have it wrong, most recent polls have the Greens up 1 to 13%.
Edward VIII didn`t treat important government documents securely, including when German and Italian diplomats (with whom he socialised) were visiting. He was opposed to British intervention over the Rhineland. He had to go, Wallis Simpson was the excuse, not the reason.
15 of the 18 ADF leadership personnel are male.
Seems a gender imbalance to me …?
https://www.defence.gov.au/about/leadership
Catprog @ #1042 Tuesday, September 20th, 2022 – 4:00 pm
The launch is associated with the ignition of the rocket. So the launch site is 30,000 ft above ground. Toowoomba airfield is where the plane carrying the rocket takes off. These are important details. Toowoomba doesnt get to call itself a launch site. No way.
Latest Morgan
Roy Morgan shows ALP strengthen their two-party preferred lead; ALP 54.5% L-NP 45.5%
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0xUzLkeuxY
upnorth, i thought it was very clear that China always intended Hongkong to be fully returned and not independent , that’s why the poms copped such criticism at the time.
I’m surprised anyone is surprised .
Simon Katich @ #1046 Tuesday, September 20th, 2022 – 4:45 pm
Going up, where does Toowoomba end? Is a 747 different than a booster stage? So many questions. 😉 Toowoomba can call itself a space port if it wants.
Late Riser
After which we can call the inhabitants space cadets.