Morgan polls, SEC Newgate poll, JSCEM submissions (open thread)

A burst of enthusiasm for the monarchy, steady support for federal Labor, and some other stuff.

Two contributions from Roy Morgan: its weekly report video tells us this week’s federal polling has Labor’s lead unchanged at 53.5-46.5, without offering any information on primary votes, and it has an SMS poll of 1012 respondents conducted on Sunday that found a 60-40 split in favour of retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic, albeit it might be faulted for having been conducted at an uncommonly opportune moment for monarchist sentiment.

The Australian also reported yesterday that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state; cost of living, health care and employment as the top priorities; “nearly half” trusting Daniel Andrews to lead the state through pandemic challenges compared with 16% for Matthew Guy; and 57% holding the view that the state was headed in the right direction, the highest of any state. Conversely, 53% of New South Wales respondents felt the state was heading in the wrong direction and only 35% believed the Perrottet government was doing a good job, the worst results for any state, although sample sizes in some cases would have been very small. The polling was conducted from August 31 to September 5 from a sample of 1502, 600 of whom were in Victoria.

Finally, the first batch of submissions – 212 of them – have been published from the Joint Standing Committe on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into the federal election. I haven’t had time to read any of them myself, but there are a good many notable names featured, though nothing yet from the parties.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,137 comments on “Morgan polls, SEC Newgate poll, JSCEM submissions (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 23
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  1. “What is not clear to me is why racist texts were not led as part of the evidence in the Rolfe murder case. One presumes that if attitudes help inform or form actions, then attitudes are germane.”

    I didn’t bring Cross with me on holidays, but I am pretty sure that would be excluded evidence.

    Just imagine if ‘police wants to kill black kids’ was admissible evidence there aren’t too many police who’d get off the murder charge when they, you know gun down a black kid.

  2. Boerwar says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 10:27 am
    Thank you, BK.

    What is not clear to me is why racist texts were not led as part of the evidence in the Rolfe murder case. One presumes that if attitudes help inform or form actions, then attitudes are germane.

    _________________________________________

    Because they are prejudicial – they don’t prove anything about this actual killing – just a general attitude. It would have been different if he had actually made comments directly about Walker.

  3. TPOF, WWP
    If racism is prejudicial, why is character an allowable consideration? I’ve read about people giving evidence of the accused’s “good character”. Wouldn’t evidence of “poor character” fall under the same rubric?

  4. Late Riser @ #53 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 10:54 am

    TPOF, WWP
    If racism is prejudicial, why is character an allowable consideration? I’ve read about people giving evidence of the accused’s “good character”. Wouldn’t evidence of “poor character” fall under the same rubric?

    From direct personal experience, and my daughter’s long experience as a National Parks Ranger, and now, senior NT public servant, Rolfe’s revealed attitudes would be common amongst a high proportion of white NT males, let alone the police. The chances of Rolfe’s jury being non-prejudiced would have been disappearing small.

  5. Thank you yabba. I don’t know anything about the case. But thinking through the implications of your experience, I end up concluding that racism can be both assumed in general and be excused in particular in any action by a white policeman against a black man in the NT. It’s the water the fish swim in.

  6. I have the numbers for a hypothetical 99 member UK Senate based on my new system 🙂

    South East 14
    South West 9
    London 11
    Eastern 9
    East Midlands 7
    West Midlands 9
    North West 11
    North East 4
    Yorkshire & Humber 8

    Scotland 9
    Wales 5
    N.Ireland 3

    Total 99

    Each Senator representing about 480000 voters

    Thinking about it, the numbers aren’t a million miles away from the European MPs by region before Brexit (around 80 seats at the last one) and since we switched to PR (the first few were FPTP) no party came close to a majority and the Greens and Lib Dems always won a decent amount of seats

    We used the closed-list D’Hondt system (one X in a box) which I think slightly favours the larger parties at the expense of the small, there were a couple of times the Tory/UKIP block won a majority combined **
    __________________________________________________________

    So two ballot papers on voting day one for the Commons and one for the Senate

    As it’s a single X on the Senate paper I may cancel my earlier idea of Supplementary Vote for the Commons paper as that requires 2 X’s and it would be unnecessary confusion to have two different systems on the same day

    ** I am slightly concerned that there is an in-built bias to the Tories with so many seats in the South, I may ponder some more
    _______________________________________________________

    I will certainly be bending the ear of the current member for Wentworth & Dearne when next I see him 🙂

  7. Steve777 says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 8:55 am
    Charles will probably have a “honeymoon” period like most PMs after they first take office. However, by this time next year if not sooner the gloss will have worn off. Charles will be part of the furniture and the usual Royal soap opera will have resumed, complete with its pettiness, silliness and scandals. It is unlikely that C3 will be as popular as QE2. More voters will be open to a Republic

    *****
    I’m coming to the view that there is nothing from within Australia that will precipitate a republic except an event/circumstance/consequence that hasn’t even been contemplated yet.
    I agree with ,and posted before, roughly what Steve says. King Kotex will be the gift that keeps on giving…the entertainment will be in how this finally shifts public opinion.

  8. “Victoria’s powerful police union claims the force is on the brink of a crisis, with officers routinely taking an hour to attend high-priority callouts such as armed robberies and home invasions”
    _____________________
    Spot fires everywhere at the minute.
    That’s why I sleep with my 3 iron beside the bed each night.

  9. Late Riser @ #56 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 11:18 am

    Thank you yabba. I don’t know anything about the case. But thinking through the implications of your experience, I end up concluding that racism can be both assumed in general and be excused in particular in any action by a white policeman against a black man in the NT. It’s the water the fish swim in.

    One thing is close to certain, and that is, if Rolfe had been attempting to arrest a white man rather than an indigenous one, then he wouldn’t have shot him four times, and he wouldn’t have killed him.

  10. Taylormade @ #59 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 11:25 am

    “Victoria’s powerful police union claims the force is on the brink of a crisis, with officers routinely taking an hour to attend high-priority callouts such as armed robberies and home invasions”
    _____________________
    Spot fires everywhere at the minute.
    That’s why I sleep with my 3 iron beside the bed each night.

    Typical TailoredMerde.
    “The number of criminal incidents recorded by Victoria Police in the year to 30 June 2022 was 341,367, down 9.6% from 377,487 incidents recorded in the same period last year.”
    https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au

    You are full of it. Continuously, always, relentlessly, just plain wRONg.

    Thier, thier, SUKKAR.

  11. Scott says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 7:14 am

    that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state; cost of living, health care and employment as the top priorities; “nearly half” trusting Daniel Andrews to lead the state through pandemic challenges compared with 16% for Matthew Guy;
    —————————-
    Lol Taylormade
    中华人民共和国
    Well played sir, well played.

  12. Taylormade says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 11:25 am

    “Victoria’s powerful police union claims the force is on the brink of a crisis, with officers routinely taking an hour to attend high-priority callouts such as armed robberies and home invasions”
    _____________________
    Spot fires everywhere at the minute.
    That’s why I sleep with my 3 iron beside the bed each night.
    中华人民共和国
    LOL Taylormade

  13. Late Riser says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 10:54 am
    TPOF, WWP
    If racism is prejudicial, why is character an allowable consideration? I’ve read about people giving evidence of the accused’s “good character”. Wouldn’t evidence of “poor character” fall under the same rubric?
    ___________________________________

    It usually is not during the trial phase (as opposed to post-conviction sentencing, where it always considered). It can only be raised by the prosecution if the defence has raised character. Most defences therefore avoid ‘good character’ like the plague, to avoid triggering evidence of bad character. Especially if there have been prior convictions.

  14. Bennelong Lurker @ #54 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 10:58 am

    An interesting discussion on RN this morning with constitutional law experts Cheryl Saunders and Greg Craven on the proposed changes to enshrine the Voice.

    (Includes a delightful comment from Craven about an article written by Janet Albrechtsen on the matter).

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/the-voice/101449732

    Thank you. Discussion on The Voice starts at 30 minutes.

  15. Upnorth says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 11:35 am
    Taylormade says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 11:25 am

    “Victoria’s powerful police union claims the force is on the brink of a crisis, with officers routinely taking an hour to attend high-priority callouts such as armed robberies and home invasions”
    _____________________
    Spot fires everywhere at the minute.
    That’s why I sleep with my 3 iron beside the bed each night.
    中华人民共和国
    LOL Taylormade

    ——————————-
    yes
    LOL Taylormade

  16. Overall crime down by around 10%.
    Robberies down.
    Burglaries down.
    Firearms offences down.
    Prohibited weapons offences down.
    Assaults down.
    Rate of victims of crime is the lowest it’s been since 2005.

    If a law & order argument failed so miserably in 2018, it’s not going to work this year.

  17. Thank you TPOF.
    “It can only be raised by the prosecution if the defence has raised character.”

    OK. That seems odd, but then I’m not legally trained. What it tells me is that intent and character are separate issues. When I couple that with yabba’s point (as inferred by me) I arrive at the idea that a general tendency or bias does may reflect on a person’s character, but it does not influence that person’s intent. That’s a fine line.

  18. Character was not really an issue in the Rolfe trial as the NT DPP accepted that the first shot was fired lawfully.

    Trying to prove a murderous intent or reckless indifference in the few seconds which preceded the subsequent shots seemed like a stretch to me.

  19. “Character was not really an issue in the Rolfe trial as the NT DPP accepted that the first shot was fired lawfully.

    Trying to prove a murderous intent or reckless indifference in the few seconds which preceded the subsequent shots seemed like a stretch to me.”

    The nub of it.

  20. Late Riser

    “ Whatever the future holds for export coal, the social legitimacy of transition in the Hunter will stand or fall on the region’s ability to create thousands of new jobs. The road to stable climate policy leads through regions like this.
    It almost shouldn’t need saying. But it resonates. It feels right. And it does bear repeating because the focus has to last. I think some governments have understood. For instance, in Qld, where I pay more attention, there has been a steady procession of renewable industry announcements in the regions, such as for Gladstone. Though bearing in mind how “announcements” have been given a bad name scepticism is there as well.”

    I don’t know how popular it would be locally but building the east coast sub base in Newcastle would generate at least 5000 construction and 1000 well paid permanent jobs (SSN maintenance), plus the sub crews.

  21. More Greens madness.

    “Greens senator David Shoebridge has called for the government to implement a four-day work week with full pay in order to improve employee wellbeing amid a “mental health and ­climate crisis”.

    Senator Shoebridge seized on the Albanese government’s decision to call a public holiday for next Thursday to mourn the death of Queen Elizabeth II, saying there was “nothing stopping them” from cutting the working week to four days.

    In a statement on Friday, Senator Shoebridge argued the only groups opposed to a four-day work week were major corporations, major political parties and billionaires.

    “If the government can make next week a four-day work week, there’s nothing stopping them from making every week a four-day work week,” Senator Shoebridge said on Twitter.”

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/greens-senator-david-shoebridge-calls-for-fourday-work-week/news-story/3fdc1f301c0eeb325a8e376957f27b3f

  22. As I reported earlier, it’s reported that David Beckham queued for 13 hours to see HMQ lying in state

    Apparently he was buying donuts in bulk for the common folk

    I’ve always liked him

  23. Putin blames Ukraine, and Zelenskyy in particular, for his war and has a not-so-subtle dig at Modi. But might his words indicate a slight shift? He now acknowledges concerns, even if they are merely Modi’s.

    “I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, your concerns that you constantly express,” he told Modi … “We will do everything to stop this as soon as possible. Only, unfortunately, the opposing side, the leadership of Ukraine, announced its rejection of the negotiation process and stated that it wants to achieve its goals by military means.”
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/16/putin-tells-modi-he-wants-ukraine-war-to-end-as-soon-as-possible

    In the same article:

    Putin had made similar comments to Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday, saying he understood Beijing’s concerns about the conflict.

    And why are these acknowledgments public?

  24. ‘Upnorth says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 12:51 pm

    More Greens madness.

    “Greens senator David Shoebridge has called for the government to implement a four-day work week with full pay in order to improve employee wellbeing amid a “mental health and ­climate crisis”.

    Senator Shoebridge seized on the Albanese government’s decision to call a public holiday for next Thursday to mourn the death of Queen Elizabeth II, saying there was “nothing stopping them” from cutting the working week to four days.

    In a statement on Friday, Senator Shoebridge argued the only groups opposed to a four-day work week were major corporations, major political parties and billionaires.

    “If the government can make next week a four-day work week, there’s nothing stopping them from making every week a four-day work week,” Senator Shoebridge said on Twitter.”
    ==============================================
    They are as mad as cut snakes. No Voice. Government to set interest rates. Government to set wages. Rent freeze. Taxes to be lifted by hundreds of billions. QANTAS to be nationalized. The energy industry to be nationalized. The cattle and sheep industries to be shut down by 2030. The cotton industry to be shut down. The almond industry to be shut down. The ADF to be halved. The ADF to get rid of fighters, tanks, artillery and ships. Government to build a million houses.

  25. United supporter since me Dad took me to see them against Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough in 1969

    Best, Charlton, Law, Stiles all played that night

  26. Barnaby deliberately misses the point.

    It’s not the money that’s the issue, it’s how it’s allocated, ignoring the grants guidelines.

    Barnaby Joyce says politicians don’t lose any sleep over what they get wrong

    In his weekly op-ed for the Northern Daily Leader (a Tamworth-based paper distributed within his Hunter-England electorate) the former deputy-prime minister Barnaby Joyce has defended “pork-barrelling” as delivering essential funds to regional Australia.

    “The upcoming Labor budget is already heralded by Labor as removing what they claim is “pork-barrelling.”… They call any attempt to bring a better deal to Regional Australians as “pork-barrelling” and their disregard to regional seats belies their election narrative that they are the party for the Hunter, Gladstone and the Northern Territory.

    Our overwhelming wealth comes from regional Australia whilst the benefit in GDP spins aroudn the city. Take-away the source of funds and the GDP spin will dry up.

    Too few people in politics now have ever been in business and to be honest ever had a job away from politics or similar quasi political employment such as union apparatchiks, very few have actually done long term manual labour.

    Opinions from the grandstand are fatally esoteric to the experience in the field. Get something wrong in business and you lose your house. Get something wrong in politics and you won’t even lose sleep.”


    Some “pork-barrelling” decisions have of course been to the detriment of regional communities like Nhill, whose sports club missed out in the infamous sports rorts round of funding.

    The Guardian blog

  27. An interesting narrative emerges if you pick your way through the article, which not so surprisingly is filed under “Ukraine war”.
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/16/germany-seizes-russian-oil-firm-rosnefts-refineries

    Berlin has taken control of the German operations of Russian oil firm Rosneft …

    Rosneft’s German subsidiaries, which account for about 12 percent of oil refining capacity in the country, were placed under the trusteeship …

    The move covers the companies Rosneft Deutschland GmbH (RDG) and RN Refining & Marketing GmbH (RNRM) and thereby their corresponding stakes in three refineries: PCK Schwedt, MiRo and Bayernoil.

    … the German government decided to slash Russian oil imports, with an aim to halt them completely by year’s end. By taking control of the sites, the German authorities can then run the refining operations using crude from countries other than Russia.

    I’m reminded of the local discussion on sovereign risk.

  28. There is a wide body of research which suggests the four-day work week could increase productivity in many white-collar sectors, as WLB and cutting down admin becomes more central in job design. Read Robert E Grosse’s “The Four Day Work Week” pub 2018, even just the introduction.

  29. ‘Emilius van der Lubben says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 1:42 pm

    There is a wide body of research which suggests the four-day work week could increase productivity in many white-collar sectors, as WLB and cutting down admin becomes more central in job design. Read Robert E Grosse’s “The Four Day Work Week” pub 2018, even just the introduction.’
    ======================================================
    Shoebridge’s call applies to all work. Dairy cows that do not get milked for three days are going to find his nostrum udderly painful.
    It is just another bit of Greens’ crank populism.

  30. Thanks Barney. It reads as if he’s describing himself in the last two paragraphs, specially the final one.

    Too few people in politics now have ever been in business and to be honest ever had a job away from politics or similar quasi political employment such as union apparatchiks, very few have actually done long term manual labour.

    Opinions from the grandstand are fatally esoteric to the experience in the field. Get something wrong in business and you lose your house. Get something wrong in politics and you won’t even lose sleep.”

    But he knows his audience. Struggling. Resentful. Jealous. (etc.)

  31. Boerwar @ #94 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 1:49 pm

    Shoebridge’s call applies to all work. Dairy cows that do not get milked for three days are going to find his nostrum udderly painful.
    It is just another bit of Greens’ crank populism.

    Because you successfully identified one edge-case? What percentage of workers are employed as dairy-cow milkers? I don’t imagine it’s a very large value.

  32. There’s no reasonable excuse for Labor to reappoint Abbot to the AWM council.
    Labor clearly supports the exploitation and glorification of war with obscene amounts of taxpayer monies.

  33. a r says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 1:53 pm
    Boerwar @ #94 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 1:49 pm

    Shoebridge’s call applies to all work. Dairy cows that do not get milked for three days are going to find his nostrum udderly painful.
    It is just another bit of Greens’ crank populism.
    Because you successfully identified one edge-case? What percentage of workers are employed as dairy-cow milkers? I don’t imagine it’s a very large value.
    中华人民共和国
    With workers in the Gig Economy already working multiple “Gigs” and finding things tough the Greens madness just adds another level of complexity.

    In the 90s when I last worked in an office environment we had voluntary RDOs every fortnight (worked extra hour and a half during work days).

    We found Senior Management, who were often needed when complex matters arose, were the greatest users of RDOs.

    Many of them had hobby farms or investment properties that they worked on the day off.

    More junior staff actually preferred normal hours so they got home a bit earlier to be with the family.

    But I guess the Greens prime focus is higher management as the electorates they hold reflect that demographic.

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