Polls: JWS Research, SEC Newgate and more (open thread)

Generally positive perceptions of the federal government combine with mounting concerns about the economy in two new attitudinal polls.

Three slabs of minor polling news in lieu of what I’d consider a proper federal opinion poll:

• The quarterly JWS Research True Issues survey of issue salience finds concerns about the cost of living have shot up since March, with 38% choosing it as one of the three issues the federal government should be most focused on, up from 16%. This pushes hospitals, health care and ageing to second place, down from 37% to 34%. Twenty per cent think the national economy headed in the right direction, down eight points since March, compared with 33% for wrong direction, up three, maintaining a downward trend going back to early last year. The new federal government scores 54% on an index score for its general performance, meaning it scored very slightly above par overall on a measure where respondents were asked to rank it on a five-point scale, which compares with 47% for the previous government in March. The survey was conducted August 12 to 15 from a sample of 1000.

• SEC Newgate’s monthly Mood of the Nation attitudinal polling, conducted from a sample of 1800, finds 47% consider the federal government is doing a good to excellent job, up eight points since June. Fifty-seven per cent expressed support for an indigenous voice to parliament, down one on May, with opposition at 19%, up three. There was a ten-point increase in positivity towards “Australia transitioning its electricity generation to renewables” since June, now at 70%, with 12% negatively disposed, down seven.

• Roy Morgan’s weekly update video informs us that its polling conducted from August 22 to 28 had Labor’s lead at 52-48, in from 53-47 a week earlier and a good deal narrower than recent results from Newspoll and Resolve Strategic. Primary votes are Labor 36% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 39.5% (up one), Greens 10.5% (down one) and One Nation 4% (up one-and-a-half).

The Age/Herald has also trickled out the further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll:

• The government’s legislated target of a 43% reduction in carbon emissions was supported by 62%, including 27% who strongly supported it, and opposed by 19%, including 10% who were strongly opposed.

• The 500 New South Wales respondents from the poll included 56% who reckoned John Barilaro’s trade commissioner appointment a case of “jobs for the boys”, compared with only 14% for the alternative option that he was a worthy candidate in a fair process, and 45% who felt Dominic Perrottet had handled the matter badly compared with 27% who thought he had handled it well.

• The 500 Victorian respondents included 42% who credited state Labor with greater integrity and honesty compared with 21% for the Coalition, and 53% who expected Labor to win the election compared with 18% for the Coalition.

• Only 7% expect COVID-19 numbers to increase in the coming months, down from 20% in March; 33% expect roughly the same numbers “perhaps for months/years”, down six from March; and 42% expect numbers to decrease, up from 28%, which includes 25% who thought they would later come back again, up from 18%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,672 comments on “Polls: JWS Research, SEC Newgate and more (open thread)”

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  1. Q: In Putin’s vision, the global South would, at a minimum, remain neutral in Russia’s standoff with the West. Developing nations would actively support Moscow.

    It seems weird that those emerging super economies like India, Brazil, Turkey etc would align with a country with a GDP the size of Australias. What is in it for them?
    Seems a bit dumb.


  2. porotisays:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 11:11 am
    Ven at 11:03 am
    Don’t laugh, perhaps Planet Janet is correct and hapless hopeless Tim Smith is the pick of the bunch.

    poroti
    You can’t ask me not to laugh after telling a hilarious joke. That is not fair. 🙂


  3. Aaron newtonsays:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 11:16 am
    Sseems strange penny wong as foreign minister is basickly just dealing with the pacifick like east teamore andm arles is doing the major trips like europe and uk marles as defence minister will probaly be foreign minister afterin the future

    Aaron Newton
    What can Wong do if Pacific Island nations are giving ultimatums to Australia to tie up with China?
    There may not be any PIs by end of this century if Climate scientists predictions of 4 metres rise in sea levels due to climate change.

  4. Enjoyed and agreed with the conversation re elite private schools.
    What about this record that probably hasn’t been broken!
    A close relative of mine was expelled many decades ago from 2 private schools basically in one day.
    He was a student at Wesley Grammar but was expelled for SP bookmaking.
    His parents immediately enrolled him at Caulfield Grammar which was accepted by the school until they later in day found out his Wesley Grammar background and expelled him.
    A very unique colourful and successful larrikin his whole life. A biography would require many editions!
    He had nicknames like ‘7 heads’ with other bookies (relating to a casino night) and the famous horse trainer Bart Cummings kindly called him ‘brown sugar’ (coarse & unrefined)!

  5. Liz Truss..

    “She’s not a nasty person,” said former Tory MP, adviser to Thatcher and political commentator Matthew Parris. “Everybody I know who knows her, or has worked with her, likes her. She is a very likeable person. She’s just a bit crackers!”
    Parris has described Truss as “intellectually shallow”, with “wafer-thin” convictions, and “a planet-sized mass of overconfidence and ambition teetering upon a pinhead of a political brain”.
    “Any decision to follow Johnson with Truss to the doner kebab which, after a night on the tiles, momentarily seems like a good idea — until you open the bread pouch,” he wrote this week in The Times.

  6. Ven @ #1549 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 11:13 am


    ItzaDreamsays:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 11:02 am
    The long read.

    From the Brookings Institution, a very American perspective on The World Putin Wants.

    So when C@tmomma posted about Putin expansion @9:02 am she was reflecting on “a very American perspective on The World Putin Wants.”
    Got it.

    The ‘very American perspective’ phrase relates to their assessment of the US and NATO’s role in getting to where we are today, a debated and disputed stance. You would need to read the article. I have no idea on what C@t was reflecting on, or of it is any way related.

  7. Torchbearer at 11:18 am

    It seems weird that those emerging super economies like India, Brazil, Turkey etc would align with a country with a GDP the size of Australias. What is in it for them?

    You need to look at purchasing power re GDP. It makes for a very different table. Australia drops down to being neck and neck with Poland for instance.

    .
    International Comparison Program, World Bank | World Development Indicators database, World Bank | Eurostat-OECD PPP Programme.
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true

  8. On Putin (for the sake of naming), here’s one for a slow Sunday morning, from another forum I follow:

    “The gods can either take away evil from the world and will not, or, being willing to do so cannot; or they neither can nor will, or lastly, they are able and willing.

    “If they have the will to remove evil and cannot, then they are not omnipotent. If they can but will not, then they are not benevolent. If they are neither able nor willing, they are neither omnipotent nor benevolent.

    “Lastly, if they are both able and willing to annihilate evil, why does it exist?”

    —Greek philosopher Epicurus (341-270 B.C.E.)

  9. Ray (UK)

    “Only if we first ask the The Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland – all stolen from Norway – if they wish to stay under the boot of the neoliberal SNP in Glasgow.”

    When did the Scottish parliament move to Glasgow? I think the folk in Edinburgh might have something to say. 🙂

  10. Dr John,
    My great grandmother was an SP Bookie. She had one of the first telephones in her home in Inner Sydney. Also, my late husband’s grandfather was very close mates with Ken Howard. My husband told me that he was able to buy his wife a new fur coat every year and every 2nd year they went off on a cruise around the world. 🙂

  11. Dr John says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 11:37 am

    Enjoyed and agreed with the conversation re elite private schools.
    What about this record that probably hasn’t been broken!
    A close relative of mine was expelled many decades ago from 2 private schools basically in one day.
    He was a student at Wesley Grammar but was expelled for SP bookmaking.
    His parents immediately enrolled him at Caulfield Grammar which was accepted by the school until they later in day found out his Wesley Grammar background and expelled him.
    A very unique colourful and successful larrikin his whole life. A biography would require many editions!
    He had nicknames like ‘7 heads’ with other bookies (relating to a casino night) and the famous horse trainer Bart Cummings kindly called him ‘brown sugar’ (coarse & unrefined)!
    中华人民共和国

    From the short description given Dr J, I do like “the cut of his Jib”.

    At one school I was at, I couldn’t be expelled as I was the only student in that year and if I went the student threshold wouldn’t have been met and it was all over red rover. My teacher was the local SP though and tought me a few tricks of the trade.

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 12:14 pm

    Dr John,
    My great grandmother was an SP Bookie. She had one of the first telephones in her home in Inner Sydney. Also, my late husband’s grandfather was very close mates with Ken Howard. My husband told me that he was able to buy his wife a new fur coat every year and every 2nd year they went off on a cruise around the world.
    中华人民共和国
    I like “the cut of their jibs” too Cat

  13. Torchbearer @ #1060 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 11:18 am

    Q: In Putin’s vision, the global South would, at a minimum, remain neutral in Russia’s standoff with the West. Developing nations would actively support Moscow.

    It seems weird that those emerging super economies like India, Brazil, Turkey etc would align with a country with a GDP the size of Australias. What is in it for them?
    Seems a bit dumb.

    Russia is prepared to bribe countries like India with cheap fossil fuels. That’s what’s in it for them.

  14. Upnorth @ #1073 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 12:16 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 12:14 pm

    Dr John,
    My great grandmother was an SP Bookie. She had one of the first telephones in her home in Inner Sydney. Also, my late husband’s grandfather was very close mates with Ken Howard. My husband told me that he was able to buy his wife a new fur coat every year and every 2nd year they went off on a cruise around the world.
    中华人民共和国
    I like “the cut of their jibs” too Cat

    I’m not a fan. I saw first hand what gambling addiction did to my great uncle, her son. I’m lucky to buy a Scratchie or a Lotto for a present. 😐

  15. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 12:18 pm

    Upnorth @ #1073 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 12:16 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 12:14 pm

    Dr John,
    My great grandmother was an SP Bookie. She had one of the first telephones in her home in Inner Sydney. Also, my late husband’s grandfather was very close mates with Ken Howard. My husband told me that he was able to buy his wife a new fur coat every year and every 2nd year they went off on a cruise around the world.
    中华人民共和国
    I like “the cut of their jibs” too Cat

    I’m not a fan. I saw first hand what gambling addiction did to my great uncle, her son. I’m lucky to buy a Scratchie or a Lotto for a present.
    中华人民共和国
    A good publican never drinks and a good SP never bets my Grandad would say.

  16. There will be people really suffering through the next winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Think I will stay in Bangkok.

    “Natural gas prices in Europe are set to rebound on Monday after Russia’s Gazprom said in a last-minute statement late on Friday that its key Nord Stream gas pipeline to Europe won’t reopen as planned. On Friday, the TTF natural gas futures, the European benchmark closed below €220 per megawatt hour, the lowest in three weeks, and more than 30% below record levels of near €317 hit last week as investors were hoping that the flows would resume as planned on Saturday. Additionally, Germany said at the start of the week that its gas storage facilities are set to be 85% full by next month, earlier than the October target. Gazprom reduced flows through the key pipeline to roughly 20% in July and warned the link’s entry point must undergo technical maintenance every 42 days. And Norway, which has overtaken Russia as the biggest gas supplier to Europe, will curtail its gas exports amid planned and unplanned maintenance at 13 fields and processing plants throughout September.”

    https://tradingeconomics.com/stream

  17. C@t

    Russia is prepared to bribe countries like India with cheap fossil fuels. That’s what’s in it for them.

    You need to brush up on your history. India and Russia have for decades had very good relations. How much trust do you think there must be that they jointly developed this weapon
    .

    ……..Such a prospect can be put in a historical perspective. For India, Russia has been a reliable and enduring friend. Indeed, India enjoys a unique relationship with Russia that it has with few other nations (except possibly Bhutan). In their longstanding association, neither India nor Russia has been excessively critical of the other.

    In 1971, India’s Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation with the (Russian-dominated) Soviet Union was vital.

    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/india-russia-friend-need
    How good do you think their relationship must have be to develop this weapon in a joint venture and the required sharing of state secrets ?
    .

    In service November 2005
    The BrahMos (also designated as PJ-10) is a medium-range stealth ramjet supersonic cruise missile that can be launched from submarine, ships, aircraft or land, notably being the fastest supersonic cruise missile in the world

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BrahMos

  18. Dr Doolittle @ #1023 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 9:20 am

    Cat 9.02 am

    Have you forgotten how badly Putin’s war in Ukraine is going for him, or how pathetically bad the US occupation of Iraq was?

    In what circumstances would Russia lose control entirely of its Kaliningrad enclave? If they are stupid enough to start a war with NATO over the Baltic states. Very unlikely to happen.

    poroti @ #1078 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 12:25 pm

    C@t

    Russia is prepared to bribe countries like India with cheap fossil fuels. That’s what’s in it for them.

    You need to brush up on your history. India and Russia have for decades had very good relations.
    .

    ……..Such a prospect can be put in a historical perspective. For India, Russia has been a reliable and enduring friend. Indeed, India enjoys a unique relationship with Russia that it has with few other nations (except possibly Bhutan). In their longstanding association, neither India nor Russia has been excessively critical of the other.

    In 1971, India’s Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation with the (Russian-dominated) Soviet Union was vital.

    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/india-russia-friend-need

    Okay, cheap fossil fuel to keep India in the tent, despite Putin’s aggressively belligerent behaviour in Ukraine.

  19. ItzaDream @ #1558 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 12:03 pm

    On Putin (for the sake of naming), here’s one for a slow Sunday morning, from another forum I follow:

    “The gods can either take away evil from the world and will not, or, being willing to do so cannot; or they neither can nor will, or lastly, they are able and willing.

    “If they have the will to remove evil and cannot, then they are not omnipotent. If they can but will not, then they are not benevolent. If they are neither able nor willing, they are neither omnipotent nor benevolent.

    “Lastly, if they are both able and willing to annihilate evil, why does it exist?”

    —Greek philosopher Epicurus (341-270 B.C.E.)

    Ah, yes.

    https://amultiverse.com/comic/2013/02/25/the-problem-of-evil/

  20. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 12:14 pm
    Dr John,
    My great grandmother was an SP Bookie. She had one of the first telephones in her home in Inner Sydney. Also, my late husband’s grandfather was very close mates with Ken Howard. My husband told me that he was able to buy his wife a new fur coat every year and every 2nd year they went off on a cruise around the world.
    ———————————-
    Pre TAB Reg would regularly win as a bookmaker the equivalent of a new house on a weekly/daily basis. He was generous and spent plenty though. Whilst married he had many affairs and I know of one which didn’t last at all where he bought inter alia 3 clothes boutique shops and a new Ford mustang for the shiela.
    Funnily he was the leader of men from PM’s, Premiers, Police Commissioners down to wharfies and other identities.
    C@t my mother had inter alia a special Russian mink coat which had to be stored in a cool store miles away in Elsternwick. Couldn’t just throw it on.

  21. Will be fun seeing Ms Whiteboard and Dutton try to fight the Summit outcome after they boycotted the event.

    Labor faces fight over workplace plans
    The Coalition will fight multi-employer bargaining ‘every step of the way’, Michaelia Cash says, saying the jobs summit shows Labor is putting unions ahead of Australians.
    By ROSIE LEWIS, TOM CRYSTAL (Oz headline)

  22. Upnorth @ #1567 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 12:20 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 12:18 pm

    Upnorth @ #1073 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 12:16 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 12:14 pm

    Dr John,
    My great grandmother was an SP Bookie. She had one of the first telephones in her home in Inner Sydney. Also, my late husband’s grandfather was very close mates with Ken Howard. My husband told me that he was able to buy his wife a new fur coat every year and every 2nd year they went off on a cruise around the world.
    中华人民共和国
    I like “the cut of their jibs” too Cat

    I’m not a fan. I saw first hand what gambling addiction did to my great uncle, her son. I’m lucky to buy a Scratchie or a Lotto for a present.
    中华人民共和国
    A good publican never drinks and a good SP never bets my Grandad would say.

    My maternal side were all publicans. Never buy a house in a street with a pub in it was the best advice I ever got.

    A lottery ticket (usually called Happy Birthday) was it for us. I went to horse races in Wagga once as a kid, and thought it meaningless. Still do really.

  23. Hi L R

    Thanks for the visuals. Can’t compete, but in the interest of sharing

    morning mist
    milky light
    bower bird at the lemons
    sunday right

  24. citizen @ #1574 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 1:08 pm

    Will be fun seeing Ms Whiteboard and Dutton try to fight the Summit outcome after they boycotted the event.

    Labor faces fight over workplace plans
    The Coalition will fight multi-employer bargaining ‘every step of the way’, Michaelia Cash says, saying the jobs summit shows Labor is putting unions ahead of Australians.
    By ROSIE LEWIS, TOM CRYSTAL (Oz headline)

    Putting who ahead of Australians?

    Attendees included: Australian of the Year, Universities, Unions, Think Tanks, Lobby Groups, Business Reps, NGOs, Qantas, 6 State Premiers, and more.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/who-got-a-golden-ticket-to-the-jobs-and-skills-summit-20220830-p5be1e.html

    I won’t hold my breath, but perhaps Ms Cash could be asked what she thought of Business reps who attended, or Qantas, or the NSW Premier, etc. Or perhaps, if this was what they were afraid of, why they chose not to take their fight to the summit, and instead chose to walk away.

  25. yabba @ #1577 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 1:17 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1544 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 10:57 am

    World Orchestra

    Hi Itza. Are you in Sydney? This is on at 5 pm in the Great Hall at USyd.

    https://allevents.in/camperdown/voces-caelestium-standing-with-ukraine-charity-concert/10000398686480997#

    Thanks yabba, nah, more’s the pity, or I’d head over. The Great Hall – the first place I heard a live orchestra, orientation week, 1965, SSO, Dvorak’s New World (hooked for life); and ten year reunions.

  26. pukka @ #1088 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 1:30 pm

    KMiddleton on Insiders stated that the Leadership program involved $18m over 5 years and $4m per year after that in perpetuity.

    That would be one of the worst rorts of the Morrison years because it involved the Governor General himself. Plus, you could just imagine what sort of ‘leadership’ values would be inculcated into the carefully chosen attendees to the Leadership Institute. Not all ‘leadership’ values are good values.

  27. Late Riser @ #1087 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 1:22 pm

    citizen @ #1574 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 1:08 pm

    Will be fun seeing Ms Whiteboard and Dutton try to fight the Summit outcome after they boycotted the event.

    Labor faces fight over workplace plans
    The Coalition will fight multi-employer bargaining ‘every step of the way’, Michaelia Cash says, saying the jobs summit shows Labor is putting unions ahead of Australians.
    By ROSIE LEWIS, TOM CRYSTAL (Oz headline)

    Putting who ahead of Australians?

    Attendees included: Australian of the Year, Universities, Unions, Think Tanks, Lobby Groups, Business Reps, NGOs, Qantas, 6 State Premiers, and more.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/who-got-a-golden-ticket-to-the-jobs-and-skills-summit-20220830-p5be1e.html

    I won’t hold my breath, but perhaps Ms Cash could be asked what she thought of Business reps who attended, or Qantas, or the NSW Premier, etc. Or perhaps, if this was what they were afraid of, why they chose not to take their fight to the summit, and instead chose to walk away.

    Will David Littleproud and the Nats vote against it? He was an attendee.

  28. ItzaDream @ #1084 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 1:11 pm

    Upnorth @ #1567 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 12:20 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 12:18 pm

    Upnorth @ #1073 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 12:16 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 12:14 pm

    Dr John,
    My great grandmother was an SP Bookie. She had one of the first telephones in her home in Inner Sydney. Also, my late husband’s grandfather was very close mates with Ken Howard. My husband told me that he was able to buy his wife a new fur coat every year and every 2nd year they went off on a cruise around the world.
    中华人民共和国
    I like “the cut of their jibs” too Cat

    I’m not a fan. I saw first hand what gambling addiction did to my great uncle, her son. I’m lucky to buy a Scratchie or a Lotto for a present.
    中华人民共和国
    A good publican never drinks and a good SP never bets my Grandad would say.

    My maternal side were all publicans. Never buy a house in a street with a pub in it was the best advice I ever got.

    A lottery ticket (usually called Happy Birthday) was it for us. I went to horse races in Wagga once as a kid, and thought it meaningless. Still do really.

    Same here. Every time we pass the racing channel on TV when we are scrolling with the remote, we go, oh wow! horses going around in a circle, a-gain! 😆

  29. ItzaDream says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 1:11 pm
    A lottery ticket (usually called Happy Birthday) was it for us. I went to horse races in Wagga once as a kid, and thought it meaningless. Still do really.
    —————————————–
    Each to their own.
    I went to Wagga Cup meeting once many years ago. Sweet memories have arisen.
    Happen to pull off a plunge (33/1 to 4/1) on a maiden horse that had run last at its only previous 3 starts. It won and broke the track record and later broke the track record in Melbourne on its 5th straight win.
    Being in the know and all intrigue make the sport more interesting and exciting.
    (A friend of mine still has a copy of the next day local Wagga paper whole back page that covered the maiden win as a memento)

  30. Dr John says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 2:27 pm

    ItzaDream says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 1:11 pm
    A lottery ticket (usually called Happy Birthday) was it for us. I went to horse races in Wagga once as a kid, and thought it meaningless. Still do really.
    —————————————–
    Each to their own.
    I went to Wagga Cup meeting once many years ago. Sweet memories have arisen.
    Happen to pull off a plunge (33/1 to 4/1) on a maiden horse that had run last at its only previous 3 starts. It won and broke the track record and later broke the track record in Melbourne on its 5th straight win.
    Being in the know and all intrigue make the sport more interesting and exciting.
    (A friend of mine still has a copy of the next day local Wagga paper whole back page that covered the maiden win as a memento)
    中华人民共和国
    Never had the coin to be in a GG syndicate but a few mates and I formed one for a “dishlicker”. He won his first four races and we retired him to be a “sire”. He only passed two years ago after a retirement spent breeding new generations and raising several abandoned kittens (whist he couldn’t feed them he was very defensive of them when my mate brought them home and would look out for the three of them as they grew older).

  31. Nate Silver on the US midterms and why the Democrats may succeed in defying historical trends:

    Upset Democratic special election wins in Alaska and New York over the past two weeks are the latest sign that the political environment might be unusual for a midterm election. Frankly, the results since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade have looked more like 2018 than 2020, with Democrats competitive even in red-leaning districts. That probably won’t hold.

    But even if it’s just a neutral year — as the generic congressional ballot currently shows — Democrats would probably be pleased. It would likely be enough for them to hold the Senate, and even gain a seat or two. It would even give them a chance in the House.

    Or maybe not. Democrats are fighting against a lot of midterm election history where the president’s party typically does poorly. They’ve also benefited from a turnout advantage in recent special elections that may not be replicated in November. The FiveThirtyEight forecast does not consider the special election results and hedges based on these historical trends; it’s why it still has Republicans as 75 percent favorites to keep the House, although Democrats’ chances of retaining the Senate continue to improve and are now 68 percent.

    Still, whenever a Democrat gets elected in Alaska — even given the quirks of the instant-runoff process in the state — it’s probably worth asking again if things could go really badly for the GOP.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trumps-presence-in-the-midterms-is-risky-for-the-gop/

  32. All the race horse commentry reminded me of a very lucky break I had at the Wyndham Races in the early 1970’s. (Wyndham in the far north of WA)

    One of my employers had a retired Bookie friend who was always saying “when in doubt back the 7 to 1 shot) I did this on the few occasions I attended race meetings with more than average success. More importantly than that, he was constantly singing the praises of a famous grey horse named Gunsynd.

    I was doing some work in preparation for the annual race meeting very early on race day when a grey horse was being exercised. I found out it was running in the Wyndham Cup so put $5 on it at 25 to 1. It won so for a while I was very rich. You can have a lot of fun with $125 of bookies money in 1973.

    My mates and I had a ball, lots of beer, huge paper mache brightly coloured cowboy hats that dissolved from your sweat, and what was left blown on a two up game that was raided by the cops.

  33. Today is a special reminder that we must get serious about doing our bit as a nation to act on climate change for the generations to come.

    No more BS from Labor in supporting new fossil fuel extraction sites. The crossbench is all important in this parliament.

  34. So, why don’t you run for federal parliament to become an influential X Bencher yourself, Rex Douglas?

    Otherwise, you have to accept the will of the people.

    Oh, and that guy in the jacket, whatever do you know? It’s green!

  35. Granny Anny at 3:32 pm
    I have long wanted to visit Wyndham but yet to get around to it. Was intrigued by some of the yarns about the place told by a guy who was working at the meatworks at the time. Tall tales about a time now long gone 🙂

  36. Asha @ #1096 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 3:21 pm

    Nate Silver on the US midterms and why the Democrats may succeed in defying historical trends:

    Upset Democratic special election wins in Alaska and New York over the past two weeks are the latest sign that the political environment might be unusual for a midterm election. Frankly, the results since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade have looked more like 2018 than 2020, with Democrats competitive even in red-leaning districts. That probably won’t hold.

    But even if it’s just a neutral year — as the generic congressional ballot currently shows — Democrats would probably be pleased. It would likely be enough for them to hold the Senate, and even gain a seat or two. It would even give them a chance in the House.

    Or maybe not. Democrats are fighting against a lot of midterm election history where the president’s party typically does poorly. They’ve also benefited from a turnout advantage in recent special elections that may not be replicated in November. The FiveThirtyEight forecast does not consider the special election results and hedges based on these historical trends; it’s why it still has Republicans as 75 percent favorites to keep the House, although Democrats’ chances of retaining the Senate continue to improve and are now 68 percent.

    Still, whenever a Democrat gets elected in Alaska — even given the quirks of the instant-runoff process in the state — it’s probably worth asking again if things could go really badly for the GOP.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trumps-presence-in-the-midterms-is-risky-for-the-gop/

    This podcast may interest you, Asha:

    https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/james-carville-better-constipated-than-evil-2/

    It fleshes out that story above with one of the best political analysts in America, James Carville.

    It’s also interesting to hear who he thinks would be the Democrats’ best candidate for POTUS in ’24.

  37. C@tmomma @ #1591 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 4:04 pm

    I’ve been re-watching ‘The X Files’ with my son, to try to understand the American psyche better. 😐

    It’s metaphysical. The difference between the Australian and American psyche is the difference between being on the outside looking in, and actually being on the inside. It’s an adjustment. You have to live it. (Just one opinion.)

  38. Every year come Melbourne cup. I’ve also been thinking the same “horsies running around in a circle” what a f@#$ing bore-fest.

  39. Great story about Wyndham and the Grey and the melting hats.

    Then there’s Halls Creek.

    If the Kimberley is too far, there’s always Louth, the prettiest little town on the mighty Darling, with the world famous (sort of)

    Shindy’s Inn

    (pic not uploading, soz)

  40. Late Riser @ #1105 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 4:13 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1591 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 4:04 pm

    I’ve been re-watching ‘The X Files’ with my son, to try to understand the American psyche better. 😐

    It’s metaphysical. The difference between the Australian and American psyche is the difference between being on the outside looking in, and actually being on the inside. It’s an adjustment. You have to live it. (Just one opinion.)

    I’m not so sure, LR. The American psyche seems so much more intense than the general Australian paradigm psyche. Of course we have our acutely intense individuals as well but America seems to punch above its weight in that area.

    They seem so much more driven in almost every area of society, from the top executives to the bottom of the rung serial killers and psychos. Though, I admit, there are plenty to be found in-between, displaying varying degrees of normalcy. Which isn’t surprising in a country of 330 million people I guess. 🙂

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