The Australian has today published a Newspoll result of state voting intention in Victoria, which I have added as an introductory note to my earlier post covering general electoral developments in the state. I am not sure what the deal is with Newspoll’s federal polling – plainly it has not returned to its earlier schedule of a poll every three weeks, as there would otherwise have been one on Monday.
We do have two new attitudinal polls from the Australia Institute, one posing an array of stimulating questions on the potential for conflict with China. This encompassed both an Australian sample of 1003 and a Taiwanese sample of 1002, the survey work being conducted by international market research firm Dynata.
Among many other things, the Australian end of the survey found 47% expecting a Chinese armed attack on Australia either soon (9%) or “sometime” (38%), with only 19% opting for never and 33% uncommitted. Twenty-one per cent felt Australia would be able to defend itself from China without international assistance, compared with 60% who thought otherwise, and 57% anticipate such support would be forthcoming from the United States compared with 11% who didn’t and 19% who opted for “it depends”. Thirty-five per cent would back the US and Australia to win such a conflict compared with 8% for lose and 26% for a draw of some description.
Thirty-seven per cent felt the Australian people would be prepared to go to war if China threatened military action against Australia, effectively equal to the 38% who thought otherwise. Twenty-six per cent were prepared for Australia to go to war to help Taiwan gain independence compared with 33% who weren’t and 41% for uncommitted. Framed a little differently, 14% strongly agreed and 23% less strongly agreed that Australia should “send its defence forces to Taiwan to fight for their freedom … if China incorporated Taiwan”, compared with 20% for disagree and 9% for strongly disagree.
The Taiwanese end of the survey is beyond this site’s scope, thought it’s interesting to note that 41% felt optimistic with respect to the future for Taiwan compared with 40% for neutral and only 20% for pessimistic. The survey was conducted between August 13 and 16 – Nancy Pelosi’s visit was on August 2 and China’s military exercises followed from August 4 to 7.
A second report from the Australia Institute provides results of a poll conducted back in April on the seemingly less pressing subject of “wokeness”, a concept that meant nothing to 43% of those surveyed, ranging from only 22% of those aged 18 to 29 to 59% of those aged 60 and over. Forty-nine per cent of the former cohort owned up to being woke, decreasing with arithmetic precision to 9% for the latter, while around 30% for each of the five age cohorts identified as “not woke”. Interestingly, Coalition and Labor voters produced similar results, with Greens and One Nation voters deviating in the manner you would expect. The poll was conducted from April 5 to 8 from a sample of 1003, so the sub-sample sizes for the results cited above are not great, however intuitively likely the results might be.
Also:
• Anthony Galloway of the Sun-Herald identifies possible successors to Scott Morrison in Cook: Mark Speakman, moderate-aligned state Attorney-General and member for Cronulla; Melanie Gibbons, state member for Holsworthy, who unsuccessfully sought preselection for the Hughes at the federal election; Carmelo Pesce, the mayor of Sutherland Shire; and Alex Cooke, identified only as a “party member”.
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has called for submissions to its inquiry into the 2022 federal election. Matters specifically touched up on by the terms of reference include political donation and truth-in-advertising laws, enfranchisement of New Zealand citizens living in Australia and “proportional representation of the states and territories in the parliament”, the latter seemingly referring to the possibility of adding extra seats for the territories in the Senate.
• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a “quick guide” on the technicalities of when the next federal election might be held, together with a handy calendar showing when state and local elections are due through to 2006.
• No fewer than twelve candidates have nominated for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election on September 17, with Labor not among them, for a seat with only 11,189 voters. As well as the Nationals and the Liberals, there are two candidates of the Western Australia Party, one being hardy perennial Anthony Fels, plus the Greens, One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal Democrats, No Mandatory Vaccination, the Small Business Party and two independents. My guide to the by-election can be found here.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/27/hawks-and-doves-open-thread/comment-page-29/#comment-3973008
Base rate can also be used to pay rent and, unlike rent assistance, can be used to pay a mortgage (i.e. if you have a mortgage and loose you job).
Andrew Leigh is a liability for Labor. Heard him on the radio today framing the need to deliver stage 3 tax cuts as an integrity issues and it being a central pledge of Labor to implement them. What toff. Talk about locking yourself into a position where it is unnecessary. Even if Labor says it will honour them (and they will) to frame it as an integrity issue is silly.
wranslide @ #1453 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 7:16 pm
This is the first serious own-goal from Labor.
Everyone knows the S3 cuts are extremely irresponsible.
This damages Albo’s credibility massively if left in place.
…whereas breaking an election promise….
It’s obvious integrity is a meaningless concept to some people. 😐
Tom the first and best @ #1448 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 7:06 pm
What the hell are you on about!?! googling something doesn’t make it so! I’ve been on the Disability pension for about 15 years! For very good reasons that I will never tell anyone about, thanks for asking.
God almighty, you Greens’ voters are desperate to disprove the facts if they don’t agree with you!
Tom the first and best says:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022, at 3:39 pm
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/27/hawks-and-doves-open-thread/comment-page-27/#comment-3972888
[‘Section 80 of the Constitution only applies to “offence against any law of the Commonwealth” and murder is a state offence, so section 80 is irrelevant.’]
I should defer to your literal interpretation of s.80, but you will find that in all states & territories, the right to a trial by one’s peers respecting an indictable offence is a given, admittedly borne more of common law than the paramount Act, of which there’s been a number of interpretations. But let me assure you, say nothing before seeing your friendly solicitor – mates’ rates apply.
http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/QUTLawJJl/2006/4.html
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/27/hawks-and-doves-open-thread/comment-page-30/#comment-3973022
Those are official government pages, not just random google results.
My point is that there are people who are unable to work who are eligible for Jobseeker but not the disability pension, for reasons including they are not expected to be unable to work for more than 2 years. I did not say nobody is on the disability pension.
Some people on the disability pension can still work.
Note that Stage 3 is an actual tax cut; the plebs only got a temporary tax offset.
(Mmmm… LaMIngTOns…)
Tom the first and best:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 7:40 pm
I’ve found it expedient to keep within one’s expertise.
Andrew Leigh is a chump; hence why he is not in Cabinet. Just give most people more, and everyone sometihing. Hawke and Keating would have smashed this and even Albanese/Chalmers will eventually find a formula.
Mavissays:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 7:48 pm
Tom the first and best:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 7:40 pm
I’ve found it expedient to keep within one’s expertise.
———————————————-
Expedient –
adjective
(of an action) convenient and practical although possibly improper or immoral.
noun
a means of attaining an end, especially one that is convenient but possibly improper or immoral.
Mavis what a PB confession!
Historyintime:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 7:55 pm
[‘Andrew Leigh is a chump; hence why he is not in Cabinet. Just give most people more, and everyone something.’]
I find Leigh is one of the most cerebral in Labor; the fact he’s unaligned is his problem.
This Ron Bourke rooster is a fucking idiot:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/focus-on-local-defence-production-endangers-australia-s-security-report-warns-20220829-p5bdkc.html
Two basic points:
1. It is entirely correct to prioritise actual defence capability over local jobs; BUT
2. If – by the time any acquisition of a major project is nearly completion we haven’t acquired a sovereign capability over that asset – then we are fucked regarding operating that capability as an independent sovereign country going forward. This in turn seriously jeopardises overall defence capability and our foreign policy settings.
Some classic examples of this:
1. the Oberon Class subs. Terrific boats, but once the Brits stopped operating theirs we were fucked for nearly a decade before we could reverse engineer all the parts required to maintain them;
2. The B-21. If we brought them ‘off the shelf’ and that asset became the cornerstone of the RAAF, then we would be fucked if we every took any independent foreign policy position that conflicted with the agenda of the American President of the day. They could simply instruct the American companies associated with the program to turn off the access codes to operate them. The same goes with AUKUS subs.
3. Future frigates. It is not for nothing that BAE has now announced today that these ships can be fast tracked in the face of the unsolicited offer from Navantia for three more Hobart AWDs by 2030 for $2 billion a pop (with all the upgraded goodies like the Ceafar Radar Array tower and AEGIS Baseline 10.0 and integrated SAAB combat system interface). That’s what happens when there is even the threat of some competition into the defence acquisition space.
We should not fear working with overseas builders for our half dozen or so key capabilities, provided they partner with local firms so that by the end of the construction cycle we are at least in a position to operate the asset independently of the country of origin.
Dom Perrottet just smashes the Heraldsun/The Age daily narrative and lands a haymaker on Matt Guys chin.
Well said Dom – https://twitter.com/DeanRosario/status/1564501458116317185
Just to throw it in there: I was classified as disabled by Centrelink but on the ordinary JobSeeker payment whilst waiting for my hip operation (I worked up until the day before the operation, so it was pretty moot…)
I didn’t have to look for work but I did have to report earnings.
Soon after this, I was off JobSeeker because hubby was working.
Next time I had to go on (the ups and downs of casual teaching…) I found they still classified me as ‘disabled’ because – as I had gone off payments before it was due – my case had never been reviewed.
I protested and was told that I couldn’t be reclassified until Centrelink reviewed my case and it wasn’t up to me to tell them I wasn’t disabled!
Occasionally I’m still offered a reduced rate for something because records show I’m on a disability pension, despite not having received a cent from Centrelink for many years….
I always thought that Dom Perrottet was OK for a Liberal.
C@tmommasays:
My heart bleeds!
C@t you sound very silly now.
The Government’s position on S3 is purely political.
If they could find a way to get rid of them as they stand without any significant political damage they would do so.
Until they can do so S3 will stand.
Dr John:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 8:05 pm
[‘Mavis you’ve a laugh!’]
You’re not dear GG in another iteration perchance? That was his style, going back a long time.
Scott Manley on the Artemis 1 launch “scrub”:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oNB54oP7zGk
Mavissays:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 8:17 pm
Dr John:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 8:05 pm
[‘Mavis you’ve a laugh!’]
You’re not dear GG in another iteration perchance? That was his style, going back a long time.
—————————————–
Certainly not but explain?
And are you really Barry Humphries?
If so I don’t know what you could be cocky about given what I know about Humphries going back.
Dr John:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 8:32 pm
You’re not dear GG in another iteration perchance? That was his style, going back a long time.
—————————————–
[‘Certainly not but explain?’]
Dear old GG is/was witty until he became abusive, which no doubt turned new contributors off, leading him to be banned from this site, the circumstances of which I don’t recall.
[‘And are you really Barry Humphries?’]
Yes.
[‘If so I don’t know what you could be cocky about given what I know about Humphries going back.’]
Humphries was upfront about his dipsomania. The question is, why do you feel so inclined to bring it up?
Barney in Cherating @ #1469 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 8:17 pm
Barney, I was just trying to point out that there are people on that much that, if they are a PAYE wage earner, probably work in some horrible job like FIFO mining, where, although the pay is great the conditions you work under aren’t. As opposed to a salary earner on an equivalent amount whose work environment is usually a lot more family friendly.
One thing you could answer though is whether the S3 tax cuts only applies to PAYE wage earners but not salary positions?
mavis
-Humphries was upfront about his dipsomania. The question is, why do you feel so inclined to bring it up?
————————————————-
I didn’t
Your wrong again.
wranslide at 7.16 pm + Mavis at 8.07 pm: non-alignment isn’t Dr Leigh’s only problem
Perhaps that’s why Andrew Leigh isn’t now, and isn’t likely to become, the Treasurer.
During the election campaign he offended true believers by dismissing an independent review of the appallingly low Jobseeker rate, saying living on the dole is “a challenge”.
See his comments, which were little better than the dismissive view of Julia Banks, at:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/12/labor-wont-commit-to-an-increase-in-the-jobseeker-payment
Leigh has published a lot, much of it very erudite and sensible, but when it came to a simple question from ACOSS about an independent review of the Jobseeker rate, his response was a fail, either because he was unimaginative, or he was operating under strict riding instructions (which were ignored by a couple of backbenchers soon after).
Leigh must know that the Jobseeker rate in Australia is the lowest bar one in the OECD. The lowest is in Greece, not a relevant comparison for many reasons (e.g. its budget is run from Frankfurt). His response was not based on his intelligence, but on something very different, which is an attitude of “timidity”, as it was once described by Stephen Smith many years ago. Neither Chifley nor Whitlam would have been timid about this.
As an economist, Leigh knows top economists think Jobseeker should be $100 higher:
https://theconversation.com/top-economists-want-jobseeker-boosted-100-per-week-tied-to-wages-150364
Even J.W. Howard, no friend of the poor, admitted Jobseeker is too low. Why not Leigh?
Dr John:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 9:08 pm
mavis
-Humphries was upfront about his dipsomania. The question is, why do you feel so inclined to bring it up?
————————————————-
[‘I didn’t
Your wrong again.’]
You did implicitly. Please stop the BS.
“One thing you could answer though is whether the S3 tax cuts only applies to PAYE wage earners but not salary positions?”
Most salaried positions pay tax via PAYE.
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 8:57 pm
One thing you could answer though is whether the S3 tax cuts only applies to PAYE wage earners but not salary positions?
_____________________
I might be able to help you out, but first just explain to me how you see the difference in the equivalent Gross Taxable Income between a wage earner and a salaried employee.
mavis
OK lets leave it where it started.
You confessed you were expedient!
The problem regarding the stage 3 tax cuts is what it has always been: Looked at on its own merit, the stage 3 tax cut has none. It’s a giveaway without any clothes. On an economic or a fiscal basis, repealing them is a no-brainer.
However, there is a second side to the story. And it goes somewhat like so:
After 9 long years of the kleptocratic shitshow that was the A-T-M Government (how apt, their initials are!), the public are sick of it. Sick of the incompetence. Sick of the blatant giveaways to their mates. Sick of the doublethink and duckspeaking on show at every presser. Sick of the misuse of public assets and revenues as Liberal Party piggybanks. But most of all, sick of the utter lack of honesty, the complete, all-pervasive cynicism that was at the heart of the worst Government in the Commonwealth’s history.
And there’s the rub. After all, Albanese campaigned hard on the “safe pair of hands” theme – instead of talking up class warfare as Shorten did, Albanese went softly-softly. And as part of that, Albanese openly pledged not to revoke/repeal the Stage 3 tax cuts, even as he continued to express disapproval of them.
Stuck in this situation, Labor is doing wrong no matter what it does. If Labor lets the stage 3 cuts remain in place, they’re dealing significant harm to Australia’s fiscal balance and narrowing the scope of future action accordingly. If Labor revokes the stage 3 tax cuts, their first major action as “honest and good Government” Government will be to publicly break a major pre-election commitment, which will deal equally significant harm to the threadbare social contract which holds our nation together. At a time when dictatorships and autocracies are on the march – literally – and faith in democracy is at an all-time low, I can certainly understand the contention that this is a particularly bad time to go around breaking pre-election promises.
Seems that old bastard Napoleon had a point after all – the easiest way never to break one’s word is never to give it. Sadly, that only works in modern politics when the media are your pack of rabid attack dogs, prepared to quibble over every splinter in your opponents’ eyes, while ignoring the planks in your own.
Dandy Murray-Honeydew @ #1479 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 9:26 pm
Oh, okay. Well, there goes that idea. 🙂
Mattsays:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 9:34 pm
And there’s the rub. After all, Albanese campaigned hard on the “safe pair of hands” theme – instead of talking up class warfare as Shorten did, Albanese went softly-softly. And as part of that, Albanese openly pledged not to revoke/repeal the Stage 3 tax cuts, even as he continued to express disapproval of them.
_____________________
Yep and you can see why he is not called Each way Albo for nothing.
Late Riser says:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 4:28 pm
frednk @3:35, do you know the number if you subtract reinfections?
I have no idea, but as the infection rate is declining it can’t be significant.
“Some people on the disability pension can still work.”
And they should be allowed too, even assisted to do so if they want, but it should never ever be a cruel demand imposed on them. Only an evil f*cking souless bag of sh1t would even contemplate requiring it before providing a social safety net above the poverty level, after the additional costs of the disability have been addressed.
“Leigh has published a lot …”
In some ways he is Labor’s Julie Bishop, she entered Parliament as a very intelligent moderate who would shake up the place and make an impact.
She failed terribly.
Leigh had very similar good press, a great mind, etc etc.
He has failed much more, and without Julie’s charisma and style.
They need to get absolute deadweight like that out of Parliament and into think tanks, to do the one thing they can do, and to provide a tiny bit of vision, something Labor completely lacks and why they are consistently wedging themselves, like a pod of whales determined to die on a beach, by doing the very stupidest, idiot things (like support in opposition and Govt the idiotic s3 tax cuts).
I am thinking three convictions in a row for high profile judge alone murder trials in NSW*:
Simon Gittany (Hyde Park balcony murder)
Leonard Warwick (Family Court bomber)
Chris Dawson
*excluding acquittals on mental health grounds
“Yep and you can see why he is not called Each way Albo for nothing.”
_______________________________
He is not called ‘each way Also’ at all – except by right wing desperados needing to find something they can manufacture in the way of political abuse.
WeWantPaul at 10.12 pm
Your comparison with Julie Bishop is nonsense, for this reason among many others:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2008-10-27/bishop-apologises-after-second-plagiarism-incident/182710
Leigh was an ANU professor. What ANU professors think of appointing an admitted plagiarist as their Chancellor (and re-appointing her) has not been widely reported.
Foreign policy is not about glitz and charisma. Leigh would be a much better Foreign Minister than Bishop ever was. But he is an economist, and that is where he’s failing.
C@tmomma @ #1438 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 6:49 pm
Say what? I’m salaried at that level. Work smart, not hard. Paid ~$65k in tax on the most recent return, so not sure what rorts you think I’m availing myself of (obviously they’re not working). Or why I need to have a tax break. I mean, I’ll take it. But arguments that I need it, deserve it, or worked quite hard to earn it are all silly.
The Coalition decided to throw money at people who already have plenty. It’s what they do. Labor’s letting it happen because politics, not because there’s any rational justification behind it.
Everyone is fighting over nothing about S3.
It’s a non issue. Ignore it. Lets think up other ways to make a stack of cash, I have 1.
The government spends CAPEX money to establish a competative Lithium mining and battery production industry in Australia. It creates a large portfolio of companies which it owns 51% of the shares in and the transfers control of these shares to set of government trusts and super style accounts. The money and dividends from these industries flows back towards consolidated revenue.
Andrew_Earlwood,
I honestly don’t know why Australia thinks welding hulls is such an important part of the naval ship building process. I know for a fact that given a CAD drawing a ship yard in South Korea could crack up a hull in about 20 weeks and then sail it by tug to Australia for final fit out. It’d seem like better approach.
If the desire if for a force capability then getting the asset trumps how you get the asset. There’s too much parochial politics tied up in our defense industries.
I agree on the B-21 and subs. Though I don’t see us not buying them.
Anyway, I think there was discussion on the light mobile force this morning. I am not a fan of that style of fighting. Im more a light mobile forces with the heaviest weapons that are possible to have. Think an infantry platoon with 8 Jackal ( MWMIK ). Lots of rockets, lots of heavy guns.
I know in my bones is that the Australian Infantry will never fight in a war with their own AFV’s without CAV. The land 400 phase 3 is worth cancelling, and we should expand our acquisition of the BOXER recon family if only because it represents a simplification of the logistics chain behind those vehicles.
Anyway. To finish off. Talk on S3 is a vanity exercise. Everyone is using it to out flank each other with their progressive ideals. Yet we’re not talking about Resources Rent Taxes or any of the other revenue streams that we could be getting from the Lithium Bonanza that we’re about to have in Australia.
Had not the average price of energy in the UK not grown to £3.500 pa, I would’ve considered going back to my roots so as to partake in a bit over-the-top jingoism:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vvgl_2JRIUs
Good policies don’t necessarily win elections. Labor took mostly good policies to the 2016 and 2019 elections and came second. The Carbon price, with a plan to transition to an ETS, was good policy but was rejected by the voters. The mining tax was good policy, if a bit muddled (but fixable) in its implementation. Winding back negative gearing and the CGT discount and abolishing novated leases were also good policy, as was pokie pre-commitment, also all rejected after massive disinformation and scare campaigns by well-funded vested interests.
The S3 tax cuts are crappy policy. But for various reasons, political reasons for sure, we’re stuck with them for now. The Albanese Government needs to think carefully and creatively about essential budget repair.
Andrew Earlwood 8.11pm
I didn’t bother commenting on the Ron Bourke article earlier today but I agree with many of your criticisms and have a few others. The article will be more of the same by those who want Australia to buy defence off a (non-existent) foreign shelf.
Naval shipbuilding in Australia has been neutered by a hostile Federal government for ten years, with a stop start work flow guaranteeing high prices. This then allows that government and it spruikers to beat up naval shipbuilding as an example of that most hated of activities – Australian manufacturing.
Yet as the recent Navantia AWD offer demonstrates, if you get some continuity of work and economy of scale through a larger number of units, the price drops to a reasonable level. Same with Bushmasters -long production run has seen a good price and excellent quality.
The other big problem with defence – as the Hunter frigates show again – is bad contract negotiation skills leading to settling prices in a non-competitive setting. This will still be a problem if we buy from overseas.
Still struggling to believe that some Ministers have already been caught out not complying with the Ministerial code around their shares.
It was so refreshing to see Albanese bring thing into the code. It was a step in the right direction (next they should hand over their Qantas club invites).
For three Ministers (well Shorten is a slightly difficult position given its related to his late mum) to have failed to sell out and meet their obligations is such an own goal. Albanese won’t but he should make an example of them. It undermines the strong efforts around integrity. I mean Senator Ayres holding was about $1490 bucks or something. Is that really hard to sell out of? Just mind boggling. He should go for the fact he can’t sell $1400 worth of ASX shares in a few months let alone the breach of the code.
It might not be a bad thing if Labor relaxes the work rules associated with the aged pension/carers allowance. As long as it remains voluntary and is not a slippery slope to roping the retirees back in the workforce. But how much can they earn before it affects their pension?
Wranslide @11:00 – nobody cares.
SClub7 @11.04
That’s a shame that nobody cares about the code.
Rakali @10:33. Great summary.
Socrates@ 10:59. Ditto.