Victorian election minus three months

As independents proliferate, polls and insider talk continue to add to an impression of a Coalition too weak to capitalise fully on Labor’s difficulties come November.

UPDATE: The Australian has published a Newspoll state voting intention poll with a set of numbers very like that of the 2018 election, with Labor leading 56-44 (compared with 57.3-42.7) from primary votes of Labor 41% (42.9%), Coalition 36% (35.2%) and Greens 13% (10.7%). Daniel Andrews has 54% approval and 41% disapproval while Matthew Guy is on 32% and 49%, with Andrews leading 51-34 on preferred premier. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1027.

Before we dive in, let it be noted that beneath this post lies post covering recent polls of state voting intention in Tasmania and one of the few federal voting intention polls since the election.

Roy Morgan produced another of its SMS Victorian state polls a week-and-a-half ago, and it produced another eye-popping two-party lead for Labor, this time of 60.5-39.5 (out from 59.5-40.5 in early July), from primary votes of Labor 40.5% (down three), Coalition 27.5% (up two), Greens 14% (up two) and 5% for “a teal independent” (up two). The poll was conducted Thursday, August 11 to Saturday, August 13 from a sample of 1097.

Further on the independent candidate front:

Annika Smethurst of The Age reports Kate Lardner, a doctor at Frankston Hospital, former Greens member and co-founder of a group that “mobilises doctors to address climate change”, will run in Mornington, and quotes an unidentified Labor source saying their polling indicates she will outperform them. Another starter identified in the article is Sarah Fenton, co-owner of the Bellarine Smokehouse, who will run in Labor-held Bellarine, to be vacated with the retirement of Lisa Neville.

• Nomi Kaltmann, a legal interpretation analyst in the Commonwealth public service with a background as a staffer to state minister Marsha Thomson and electorate officer to Mark Dreyfus, has announced she will run as an independent against deputy Liberal leader David Southwick in Caulfield, a week after quitting the ALP. Kaltmann told the Financial Review she became alienated from Labor after its national executive installed Enver Erdogan to fill a Legislative Council vacancy in South Metropolitan region in 2019 without reference to the party membership with backing from the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, despite him living in Melbourne’s north. However, The Australian reported on Friday that Kaltmann nominated for party office-holder positions as recently as February. The Financial Review further quoted Climate 200 convenor Simon Holmes a Court saying Kaltmann “had been in touch”.

• Jacqui Hawkins, a former adviser to federal Indi independent Cathy McGowan, will again run against Liberal member Bill Tilley in the northern Victorian seat of Benambra, having come within 2.4% of toppling Tilley on her first attempt in 2018.

The Age reports two former Bayside mayors appear likely to enter the ring: Clarke Martin in Sandringham, where he managed a modest 8.4% on his first attempt in 2018, and former Liberal preselection aspirant Felicity Frederico in Brighton.


Patrick Durkin of the Financial Review reported a fortnight ago that “confidential independent polling” put the Coalition “well short of the 18 seats it needs for victory”, but suggested Labor would lose up to six seats in “Victoria’s growth corridors”.

• Despite heavy publicity from the Herald Sun, which asserted the party was likely to feature in a massively expanded lower house cross-bench after the election, the Victorians Party has announced it will not contest the election “due to the limitations on new political parties raising campaign funding under Victoria’s electoral laws introduced after the last state election”. This presumably refers to laws that cap donations to political parties, old and new alike, at a rate presently set at $4320 over four years. The party was launched by Small Business Australia executive director Bill Lang and sought to attract support from lockdown opponents.

• In the regional seat of Euroa, which will be vacated with the retirement of Nationals member Steph Ryan, the new Nationals candidate is Annabelle Cleeland, editor of Fairfax Media title Stock & Land, while the Liberal candidate will be Brad Hearn, principal of the Flexible Learning Centre in Benalla.

• A Victorian Liberal upper house preselection I missed when summarising them in my previous post: Anne-Marie Hermans, a former Family First candidate, will lead the ticket in South Eastern Metropolitan, replacing the retiring Gordon Rich-Phillips.

• Tom McIntosh, an electrician and former staffer to federal MP Ged Kearney, has been sworn in to replace the late Jane Garrett as Labor’s member for Eastern Victoria region in the Legislative Council. McIntosh had already been preselected to succeed her at the election after she announced her intention to retire in December.

• The Victorian Electoral Commission has calculated its own two-candidate preferred margins for the newly redistributed electoral boundaries, which make use of its data recording which voters voted at which polling booths. It identifies Caulfield, Hastings, Pakenham (formerly Gembrook) and Ripon as having flipped from Liberal to Labor, Bass and Bayswater as having done the reverse, and Mildura as flipping from independent to Nationals. Labor-held Keysborough and Mount Waverley and Liberal-held Ferntree Gully are counted as abolished, and it credits Labor with margins of 22.0% and 23.4% in the new seats of Greenvale and Laverton, and Liberal with a 1.3% margin in Berwick.

UPDATE: The Age reports Resolve Strategic asked the 500 Victorian respondents from this week’s poll further questions about state political issues, and found 42% crediting Labor with greater integrity and honesty compared with 21% for the Coalition, and 53% expecting Labor to win the election compared with 18% for the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

107 comments on “Victorian election minus three months”

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  1. Nice to see another poll besides Roy Morgan, and it just reinforces Labor’s large lead.

    Still not a single poll has indicated the Libs will even be remotely competitive.

    I also think incumbents have the edge during the actual campaign (hell even Morrison’s government clawed back about 2% in the polls during the federal campaign) so I can’t imagine Guy making up any ground unless something crazy happens.

    Increasingly confident of another Labor landslide.

  2. Trent, if your numbers are correct then Labor wins easily.

    Remember that Hibbins is probably the lowest profile Green MP in the country and has won from third twice in a row. Why would he dramatically increase his vote share now when he didnt in 2018? He’d been the member for four years and he got a very small swing.

  3. Hibbins got a 3.3% swing on primaries to him in 2018 and that was with a bunch of left wing micro parties running that had not in 2014. He only came third because the ALP primary also increased, due to the general statewide swing from the Liberals to the ALP.

    The Redivision has also added some new territory to Prahran from Albert Park and Caulfield, where the Greens candidates were neither the incumbents or in the top 2 candidates, so there is some potential for swing there.

  4. Greens should go after Footscray. They “only” got 18.5% in the adjacent federal district of Fraser, but when you look at the geography of the district it belies some interesting numbers. ALP primary collapsed everywhere in Fraser but in St Albans and Sunshine it went to the Coalition and in Footscray it went to Greens and Vic Socialists who preferenced Greens above ALP. Every station in Footscray saw the ALP down double digits. Vic Socialists are also running a candidate this time (didn’t in 2018) having gotten 5-12% in all the Footscray polling stations. If the Greens actually put in some resources they can at least put ALP under 40% primary.

  5. frednk says:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 12:53 pm
    The age is on my view a good paper, the trouble is I start to get tempted to subscribe again and they publish another round of nonsense.

    Rubbish. Every time there’s a piece on development, transport, infrastructure, or planning, they 100% wheel out that cretin Michael Buxton. He has spent a lifetime trying to preserve the 1880s ‘Marvellous Melbourne” era and he never disappoints his masters, complaining breathlessly about anything new.

    While ever the Age keeps giving him a platform and denying it to those who can best explain changes to planning, infrastructure, transport etc, they can die in a fire.

  6. Interesting to see the approval/ disapproval ratings for Andrews and Guy.
    Like Andrews or not, he gives you plenty of material to assess his ratings- so it’s a reasonable task to assess his record for positive or negative.
    However, Guy, on the other hand, gives plenty of evidence for his low ratings, but little to be positive about.
    No record of achievement apart from his past Ministerial behaviour, and association with some suspect ” businessmen” who shared his love of seafood. Add a never- ending story of carping, ridiculing and whinging, sacked as leader, then reelected in a “scraping the bottom of the barrel ” exercise and leading a Party that is riven with disharmony.
    On that he scores a 42% disapproval.
    Yet Guy still scores about 32 % approval rating. (Yes, I know, the poll was commissioned by The Oz – they’d try to put on a positive spin, but roughly only one third of respondents rated him positively. )
    My reading? That one third would have to be absolute rusted- ons- those who would vote for Putin if he was the Liberal candidate. It wouldn’t matter if Andrews could walk on water, that third would find something, anything, to criticise him.
    So given all of the above, one wonders what Guys rating really are.

  7. The Sky after dark crew already appear to be in the anger stage of grief that Dan Andrews is on track for another resounding victory. Last night Sophie Elsworth went on one hell of a rant, saying that Dan Andrews would get back in easily because the Victorian Liberals were so woke and left that it was embarrassing. The right have invested so much energy in irrational hatred of Dan Andrews, that unless something completely out of the box happens, I suspect that Sophie Elsworths’ rant last night is just an entree of what is to come.

  8. @ Matt31
    I wonder what Guy’s approval rating would be for the Sky after Dark audience?
    ” Too woke and Left” ?
    Elsworth would vote for Putin. Can’t beat a dictator to save us all from wokeism and the Lefties.

  9. Gettysburg1863 @ #57 Saturday, August 27th, 2022 – 11:30 am

    @ Matt31
    I wonder what Guy’s approval rating would be for the Sky after Dark audience?
    ” Too woke and Left” ?
    Elsworth would vote for Putin. Can’t beat a dictator to save us all from wokeism and the Lefties.

    The Herald Sun article comments suggests they agree he is too left.
    They LIKE the drunk driver Tim Smith who is calling everyone to ‘woke’

  10. Spare a thought for Matt Guy. Squeezed in a vice by Labor to the left and a hostile News Corp to the right. I actually feel for the bloke. How can the Victorian Liberals possibly win in this sort of political environment?

  11. 3z, I live in Prahran (well St Kilda but in the electorate of Prahran) and Hibbins is a pretty visible member locally.

    He had a swing to him in 2018 but it was just cancelled out by Labor having a near identical swing, both at the expense of the Liberals who collapsed.

    Since 2018 though the Greens vote has increased a lot in two subsequent federal elections across the area, especially in South Yarra which is the most populous suburb in the seat. While the Greens vote went backward in Higgins this May, and Labor got the big swing, it was the opposite in South Yarra where the Greens got the big swing.

    Likewise, the St Kilda booths within Prahran (Argyle Street and Inkerman St) went from being the only 2 St Kilda booths in Macnamara where Labor still beat the Greens up to 2019, to the Greens convincingly winning both with huge swings (over 40% primary vote) in May.

    The Southbank / St Kilda Road booths in Macnamara also swung hard to the Greens.

    Obviously all the usual cautions apply around federal v state etc but the winds are blowing in the Greens’ direction in this area.

    I am almost certain the Greens will top the primary vote and the 3PP this time, but I agree that the winner will ultimately be determined by two things:

    1. Will Labor finish ahead of the Liberals? That’s the only scenario that is a threat to the Greens because if not, it’s an easy double-digit Greens win v Lib.

    2. If they do, it will probably depend on how far ahead of Labor the Greens are before Lib preferences are distributed. If Greens lead Labor by 7-8% at the 3PP stage then they could still hold on to win, but anything under a 7% lead, Labor should overtake them on Lib preferences.

    Then again, if Lib voters really hate Dan at the moment their preferences may not flow as strongly to Labor as usual (“put Labor last” mentality).

  12. Matt31 says:
    Saturday, August 27, 2022 at 9:58 am
    “The Sky after dark crew already appear to be in the anger stage of grief that Dan Andrews is on track for another resounding victory. Last night Sophie Elsworth went on one hell of a rant, saying that Dan Andrews would get back in easily because the Victorian Liberals were so woke and left that it was embarrassing. “
    Wonderful! One can only hope that the Victorian Libs follow their advice and allow their hard right, religious conservative faction to lead them to another electoral thumping.
    “The right have invested so much energy in irrational hatred of Dan Andrews…”
    A powerful Labor Premier in any time or place is deeply affronting to them. In their world view only conservative governments representing powerful commercial and financial interests can ever have legitimacy. Hence the irrational hatred of Andrews and his preferred approach of treating the Liberals and their leaders as irrelevant.

  13. Regarding Footscray. Greens huge chance to win. Redistribution got rid of Braybrook and Sunshine, replaced with Yarraville, Kingsville and Seddon. Very very very bad candidate last time, reason Animal Justice Party got huge primary(7%+ l think).and the ALP primary bloated by a few percent. Area is still gentrifying. Bloated ALP vote last time due to Morrison effect and with the Greens vote increasing overall from last election l would be surprised if this isn’t close. Any chance of Liberals recommending preferences to Geeens over Labor? Interest rates, cost of living, Federal budget in October and any Albo mistakes will hurt Vic Labor. Put Footscray in the Green win from Labor column with Richmond, Northcote and Albert Park. Looking like minority government to me with Independents picking off both Lab and Lib members and Libs regaining most of the bible belt.

  14. Katie Hall is a reasonably popular and very visible local member in Footscray. I see her about often.

    While the Greens did very well in places in May (43% of the primary vote at the Footscray Central booth I voted at), that trend is nowhere near uniform across the district, even after the boundary changes. Greens only got 19.4% at the Maribyrnong booth, 17.3% at Braybrook and 29.4% at West Footscray Central.

    Not for turning at this election I think.

  15. Two Anti Dan articles in the Herald Sun this morning.

    Suburban rail loop doesn’t stack up – some report to be released today??

    Abbott claiming Dan the worst ever premier.

  16. From the Guardian

    Victoria’s opposition will match the state government’s announcement to cover the cost of nursing and midwifery degrees if elected in November.

    Speaking at the Liberal party state conference on Sunday, the opposition health spokeswoman, Georgie Crozier, says the $270m plan to cover the cost of more than 10,000 nursing and midwifery degrees, as well as offer scholarships for nurses to undertake postgraduate specialities, has come too late:

    Daniel Andrews has had eight years to do this and has failed to do anything … This government is bereft of ideas and are coming at this late time to make an announcement.

    Crozier can’t help but have a whinge


    I agree the Greens are unlikely to win in November, as the ALP versus Greens margin is something like 20%, however, I suspect the post election ALP versus Greens margin will shrink into the single digits. The Braybrook polling booth is outside the post redivision boundaries, so most of the people voting there will be in the new seat of Laverton.

  18. @laughtong1234pm
    Got to read the article. Didn’t change my views on Andrews work during the worst of the pandemic.
    However, after reading the comments on the article I will say this-
    I ignore the Liberal Opposition commentary. This is a dishevelled and ideologically- riven Party who are on a hiding to nothing .
    As for those who are continually and vocally critical- they can have their say in November. If, as it appears, the Andrews Government is re-elected, and by a significant margin, then it’s all over, Rover. It will be time for them to shut up, their views will be echoes of the past and their claims that there is a strong undercurrent of dislike and anger with Andrews will be exposed as hyperbole and bullshit.
    We shall see. One could expect some Labor losses with a probable third- term Government, but not necessarily to a ratbag Opposition led by Matthew Guy. The Upper House could prove to be interesting.
    Roll-on November.

  19. I checked out Sky’s YouTube channel this morning. Funny stuff.

    Up until about 5 days ago there were a lot of videos about how Dan Andrews is going to be facing a huge backlash in November.

    Then the only opinion video on the Victorian election since that Newspoll, says it’s “not surprising” he’ll be re-elected because the Victorian Liberals are useless and not a viable alternative because they are “too left wing” and an echo of the “mad Green agenda”. LOL.

    If this kind of commentary continues, I only expect Labor’s lead to grow more because if even the Liberal Party’s media backers start changing their narrative from “Victorians hate Dan, you can kick him out” to “Dan will win because the Liberal opposition are pathetic” (regardless of how bizarre their reasoning is) it will only reinforce the fact that the Liberals are not a viable alternative and they’ll slump even more.

    Maybe that’s what they’d prefer now. If they know Dan will win a third term anyway, maybe Murdoch & Co would prefer that the Libs hold onto as little of their furniture as possible so they get obliterated and Sky/Murdoch can claim again that the moderate approach was to blame and influence a rebuild in their image.

  20. @Gettysburg1863 – Great comment, I’ve always thought the commentary around anger with Andrews was hyperbole too.

    Just think, Andrews was still leading convincingly in polls that occurred *during* lockdowns. These were times when lockdown fatigue was at a peak. It was only natural that these polls would likely be a low point for Dan and his numbers would only rebound, and still never lost his lead even at the low points.

    My theory has always been that most of the noise has come from his rusted on opponents. Those who have always despised his progressive social agenda more than anything else – you know, the type of people who disparagingly use words like “woke” – but probably felt they were losing an unwinnable battle in Victoria where Labor’s social agenda is undeniably popular. So the pandemic came along, and they saw it as a new battleground where they might have more success by shifting the focus, so they made a whole lot of noise. But that’s all.

    The same minority who quietly hated Dan in 2018 for being too progressive, now just hate him a lot louder in 2022 because they have an issue they’re more comfortable expressing their views about publicly.

  21. I think one factor is Matthew Guy tries to play both sides by portraying him as a moderate on climate change which would anger the conservative voters but then being a right-wing libertarian populist for covid and vaccine mandates which would deter moderate small liberal voters.
    I noticed that being a populist in a major party in Australia would not be successful compared to other countries like the USA but even this is happening for Canadian Conservatives with Pierre Pouville likely going to be a leader who has political similarities to Matthew Guy.

  22. For those seeking guidance from Professor Google et al., the Canandian Conservative politician referred to above is Pierre Poilievre.

  23. Gettysburg1863 says:
    Monday, August 29, 2022 at 10:32 am
    If, as it appears, the Andrews Government is re-elected, and by a significant margin, then it’s all over, Rover.

    You would expect so. But the red shirts ‘scandal’ and the east-west link were both clearly rejected as critical issues by voters at the last state election. And yet the Libs are still banging on about both in 2022.

    Also Jeremy @Sunday, August 28, 2022 at 5:17 am: your pro-Greens delusion is eye-watering. Or just really bad trolling.

  24. Marh says:
    Monday, August 29, 2022 at 12:00 pm
    I think one factor is Matthew Guy tries to play both sides by portraying him as a moderate on climate change which would anger the conservative voters but then being a right-wing libertarian populist for covid and vaccine mandates which would deter moderate small liberal voters.

    He’s also refused to boot Moira Deeming from the Lib upper house list. He’s toast.

  25. somethinglikethat, l kind of take offence to your remark regarding me trolling. Thought my comment was constructive and informative if anything. We aren’t all rusted on Labor voters and unfortunately the moderator let’s too many Labor party hacks spruik the same propaganda. Would love this site if the comments were from a broad demographic instead of Labor right electorate officers wearing red shirts. If this comment gets published, love your work and knowledge moderator. Keep it up.

  26. Hi Jeremy.

    57.5 does not result in a minority ALP government no matter how badly you wish for it!

    A noisy minority hates Dan, but they are the same ones who voted against him last time. Votes have moved but not where they need to move.

  27. My prediction is that the Greens will hold Melbourne and Brunswick, gain Northcote, and Richmond will be a toss up, close to 50/50.

    Greens will get solid swings and make inroads into both Footscray (partially due to redistribution but also further gentrification) and Albert Park (retiring Labor MP plus momentum from big federal swing) but win neither because the margins are way too big. In the case of Albert Park, Labor are currently 27% ahead of them on the primary vote. Way too much to overcome in one election.

    Prahran, as has been discussed, may be a toss up. I have no doubt Greens will substantially increase their vote, and will easily hold with an increased margin if it remains GRN v LIB, but if the Liberals fall to third then the race looks a lot more like Richmond: ALP / Greens toss up that could be close to 50/50.

    I predict probably 4 (maybe 5) Greens seats. Melbourne, Brunswick & Northcote for sure, and at least one of either Richmond or Prahran (possibly both).

    Regardless of the Greens tally though, Labor will win over 50 seats for a comfortable majority. I actually think they’ll win at least 53-54 and the Coalition in the 20s again.

  28. Jeremy says:
    Monday, August 29, 2022 at 6:37 pm
    Would love this site if the comments were from a broad demographic instead of Labor right electorate officers wearing red shirts.

    Thanks Jeremy, you just proved my point. Most of us here aren’t connected to politics. It’s just an interest.

  29. Middle aged balding white man. 57.5????
    Newspoll has it at 56, 2pp to Labor. With the gap closing till election day(in my opinion). Have you seen the tents outside our Hospitals??? Most commentators on this site are delusional Labor rusted ons. Sportsbet offering 5.50 for minority Labor government. Way way overs.

  30. If we’re making predictions, my wild guess is there will be a small swing against Labor, just on the basis that landslides don’t happen two elections in a row.

    Greens to keep the seats they currently hold, with a 50/50 chance of gaining each of Richmond and Northcote. Liberals to pick up two to four seats from Labor. Maybe an extra independent or two in the mix somewhere. Existing independents to hold.

    Overall result; Labor on fifty seats plus or minus a couple.

  31. EightES I think your assessment is pretty accurate and close to what I think too.

    In regards to LIB v LAB seats changing hands, I think the Liberals will gain 3 outer southeastern seats (such as Nepean, Pakenham, Hastings) that will be offset by 3 inner/middle southeast losses to Labor (Glen Waverley, Brighton, Sandringham – I already include Caulfield as notional Labor). On top of that, the Liberals will probably gain 2-3 other seats off Labor in the eastern suburbs. Possibly seats like Hawthorn (Pesutto factor), Bayswater, etc.

    However, I think if good teals run in Kew and Malvern (there is already one in Kew), then there could be 2 independent gains at the Liberals’ expense. Meaning overall I predict the Coalition will finish about the same as 2018.

    Labor I think will lose a net 2-3 seats to the Liberals, 1-2 to the Greens, and possibly one to an independent (maybe a Melton or Werribee?) but to be honest I think that narrative has been overblown. There will be independent support but it’s difficult for an independent to actually make it into a 2PP count.

    So basically I expect Labor to be around -5 seats (from their notional 58), Coalition +1, crossbench +4 (1-2 Greens, 2-3 Independents).

    Also I’m not a rusted on Labor voter. I’m a Greens/Labor swing voter. I voted Greens at the last 3 federal elections and Labor in Albert Park 2014 and Prahran 2018, but will be voting Greens in Prahran this year. So I would love to see the Greens expand more but I’m being realistic. They have no chance in Albert Park or Footscray, but can set themselves up to make 2026 competitive.

  32. About Prahran, there’s no plausible way I can see for the Liberals to finish third and knife the Greens with their preferences, unless they deliberately run dead with that outcome in mind.

    They comfortably won the 3PP last time, even with a drop in their primary vote of more than ten percent. Surely their vote must be close to bottoming out by now.

    I suppose some big local anti-Liberal issue could do it, but much more likely Labor’s vote will drop by a percent or two in line with the statewide vote, and the Greens will comfortably hold (comfortable compared to the last two times, that is).

  33. EightES – As a local myself I definitely think the Liberals can fall to third place. The mood has shifted here dramatically, and South Yarra in particular has more rapidly swung left than any other part of Melbourne.

    There are two factors on top of the general inner city anti-Liberal mood:
    – Massive demographic change in South Yarra (most populous suburb in the seat) has shifted it rapidly to the left. It’s no longer a Liberal suburb at all.
    – Toorak removed in the redistribution

    In the federal election, the primary votes within the new state boundaries of Prahran were roughly:
    37.5% Greens
    30.5% Labor
    23% Liberal

    There’s actually not a single suburb left in the electorate where the Liberals didn’t finish third in May. Once upon a time St Kilda / Windsor was the only part where they did; Prahran itself was almost a 3-way tie in the primary vote, and the Liberals always won South Yarra & Toorak.

    They were the dynamics that made it such a three-way race in 2014 & 2018, but now the seat is just comprised entirely of suburbs where the Liberals most recently finished third.

    Now, at state level they may do better than that because I know state & federal are different; but what it demonstrates is that the 34% in 2018 was definitely not a floor because they lost another 11% in support (albeit at a different level of government) in 4 years since then.

    I don’t think it will be that dramatic in November but I’m predicting something along the lines of:
    Around 34% Greens
    Between 27-29% Labor
    Between 27-29% Liberal

    I think that whereas in 2014 and 2018 the Liberals came first in the 3PP and Labor & Greens very close for second/third; this time the Greens will come first and Liberal/Labor very close for second/third.

    What I actually think is most likely is that the Liberals finish third on the primary vote but second in the 3PP after minor preferences. So I do still predict a Greens retain vs Liberal (probably around 62-38 this time), but a GRN v ALP race is still a very real possibility which can’t be discounted especially in light of the federal results where the Liberals would not have even been close to making the 2CP.

  34. Trent, I see the leftward in South Yarra trend is also getting into Hawthorn to a lesser extent. To the state vs federal issue, a Labor vs Green is still a possibility given the rightward shift of the Libs both federal (with Peter Dutton) and State (Matthew Guy supporting the anti-vax movement)

  35. I agree, the Liberal brand is just completely toxic across the entire Chapel Street corridor which is really the heart of the seat.

    2018 may have been a high point for Labor specifically but not a low point for the Liberals here. They have only become increasingly toxic, while at the same time the demographics of South Yarra have shifted from being more like Hawthorn (which itself is shifting left), to more like a cross between Southbank, Cremorne & Prahran.

    So if the Liberals now struggle to crack 30-35% across their strongest suburb in the seat (while everything below High Street remains under 20%), then Prahran is definitely headed in the direction of a GRN v ALP contest in the future.

    Also in regards to “federal drag”, I believe Labor will have the advantage this election – especially in areas like Prahran – because the Liberals will be more dragged by Peter Dutton than a newly elected Labor government will be with Albanese.

  36. Based on federal results for May, here’s a breakdown of how each suburb within the boundaries of Prahran voted, ranked from the Liberals’ best to worst. I grouped a couple of suburbs together where the polling places are likely to cover both.

    South Yarra:
    1. Greens (33%); 2. Liberal (31%); 3. Labor (27%)

    1. Greens (34%); 2. Labor (30%); 3. Liberal (27%)

    Southbank & St Kilda Road (this area closely resembles the overall result):
    1. Greens (38%); 2. Labor (30%); 3. Liberal (23%)

    1. Greens (47%); 2. Labor (29%); 3. Liberal (16%)

    St Kilda & St Kilda East:
    1. Greens (42%); 2. Labor (34%); 3. Liberal (15%)

    With South Yarra, I’ll note that if you remove the Hawksburn booth (on the boundary of Toorak), then the Liberals actually finish below Labor there too. So the Liberal figure may actually be inflated there due to Toorak voters.

    If I were the Greens looking at that data, I would definitely be preparing for a possible GRN v ALP contest.

  37. Trent,

    Fair enough, I bow to your local knowledge.

    Unless you turn out to be completely wrong, of course, in which case I’ll say “HA! HA!”.

  38. Southbank-St Kilda Rd could be classed as a Liberal lending area and if they are only polling 23% then the Greens look safe in Prahran.

  39. I could very well be wrong. I live in a part of the seat where the Liberals got 14% in May so my perception of the mood on the ground might have more of a left bias than the seat overall, but I do spend a lot of time around Chapel St and I just don’t feel like the continuous leftward shift since 2010 is going to “correct” or reverse.

    While there have been specific backlashes occurring, I think most of the swing has been more of a natural and permanent shift due to demographics and the broader leftward shift of inner city areas.

    I think the 2016 election is good evidence of that too. Most of inner Melbourne, including neighbouring seats like Macnamara, swung towards the Liberals with the prospect of a more progressive Turnbull-led Liberal Party. However, the Chapel Street precinct including South Yarra did not. Its shift away from the Liberals continued in the same direction, despite the surrounding areas swinging the other way.

    I also keep in mind that the federal election in May had no Greens incumbent, and the Higgins part of the seat had about as progressive/tolerable a Liberal incumbent as you can get for the inner city, who was actually also the 2018 state candidate. So in a race between a Greens incumbent and unknown Liberal challenger in November, it’s hard to see any particular reason the Liberals will significantly outperform their federal result.

    As I said though, I still predict a GRN v LIB contest (just) this time around mostly due to Labor also having a small swing against them, but I expect the ALP v LIB race for second to be so close it could go either way and possibly not be known for days. If I had to guess a most likely outcome, it would be an order of GRN>ALP>LIB on primary votes but a 3PP order of GRN>LIB>ALP after minor preferences.

  40. I totally agree.

    Preston will be competitive for the Greens in the next couple of election cycles but they’re just too far behind right now to be a threat this year. Like Footscray, gentrification is marching through Preston & Reservoir pretty rapidly so I think both of those seats are on the same trajectory.

    I think Pascoe Vale was way out of reach on previous boundaries but the redistribution has made it more competitive. I think it’s further out of reach than Footscray or Preston still though, even though the redistributed margin is closer than those ones. I think the areas within Pascoe Vale are changing less rapidly than in Preston & Footscray.

    EDIT: Forgot about the redistribution in Pascoe Vale so updated my comments about Pascoe Vale.

  41. Wouldn’t discount the Greens in Albert Park with the loss of incumbent factor and a collapsing Liberal vote that has to go somewhere but their most likely pick ups would be Richmond and Northcote.

  42. News poll is 56, Jeremy, other polls are in the 60’s.

    Take off two percent if you want (why? – the votes won’t go to the libs…) and you are still nowhere near minority government territory.

    But, whatever.

    The greens will pick up a couple of extra seats, libs will lose a few to tealish independents and Labor. LNP will be even further away from forming government.

    I vote green by the way.

  43. One factor no one has mentioned yet… what happens if the Coalition preference ALP last? That would be Prahran locked up and Northcote and Richmond being likely gains for the Greens. QLD LNP did it in 2020, when South Brisbane primary vote changes were only GRN +3.5, ALP -1.6 and LNP -1.5, but a 8.9 percent swing to the Greens off of LNP preference changing from the election prior.

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