Roy Morgan’s weekly update reveals that its latest voting intention figures have Labor’s two-party lead out from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but does not treat us to primary vote numbers on this occasion. If I’m reading the blurry fine print correctly, the polling was conducted from August 8 to 14. Assuming Newspoll has resumed its previously established schedule of a poll of every three weeks, that should be along with us on Sunday evening.
Also of note:
• An article in Crikey last week provided details from YouGov’s Co-operative Election Survey panel survey, conducting during the campaign from May 2 to 18 from a sample of 5978. It indicates that the cohorts most likely to defect to Labor were the well educated, those with few assets, those identifying as having no religion, and those from non-English backgrounds. Also featured were those aged 18 to 34, although this cohort was the most volatile across the board – the voters least likely to defect from Labor were the oldest. Similarly, high income earners were both more likely to those on low and middle incomes both to defect to and from Labor.
• Michael Koziol of the Age/Herald explores the impact of young inner-city renters on the Morrison government’s defeat. Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group is quoted saying such voters are keen to get into the property market but “do not want to relocate to the outskirts of western Sydney or Melbourne”, and have “really looked down on conservative politicians mocking them on their lifestyle choices”. Such voters were attracted to the teal independents over Labor because they favour “a modern solution to their hunger for a different form of politics”, and over the Greens because of their “positions on housing and development at a local level, where ‘not in my backyard’ attitudes constrain supply”. The latter is particularly an issue at state level, to which the New South Wales government has responded by providing the option to pay annual land tax instead of upfront stamp duty and unveiling a plan for 4500 new homes around a railway station in Hornsby.
• The by-election for the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, vacated by the retirement of former Chief Minister Michael Gunner, will be held tomorrow. Labor’s Brent Potter will defend a 9.6% margin against Country Liberal Party candidate Ben Hosking and four others.
Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 4:29 pm
If they don’t want to break a promise, they need to call an election and seek a mandate to govern that isn’t based on lying and pretending you can deliver all three.
________
the real problem is that they promised to keep them in the first place. The same cowardice that led them to go along with the demolition of ATSIC, the SSM debate, all the Coalition security laws and everything else that they were terrified of being wedged over. A large streak of cowardice runs through this lot.
If people are concerned about the Government breaking a promise by repealing the stage 3 tax cuts I will change my tune.
They should defer the stage 3 tax cuts until the budget is in surplus.
Josh Burns effectively saying the S3 tax cuts are BS, while the unnamed Labor mp is embarrassed to add his name in support.
‘Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 4:29 pm
Voters do not understand how economies work. They demand governments give them better services, lower taxes and controlling debt/deficit.
Labor promised all three. They already have broken one of those promises, we just don’t know which of the three they have broken yet.
…’
——————————
The 12 per centers never deliver on their promises. They do this by failing miserably to persuade the masses to vote for them. You can get an insight into EXACTLY why the 12 per centers fail by just looking at VE’s opening sentence. What the Greens need is a re-education camp for Australian voters.
The Greens promised swingeing tax increases this election. Billionaires were going to be taxed out of existence. A carbon tax. A wealth tax. Getting rid of negative gearing. Getting rid of the Stage 3 tax cuts.
88% of Australian voters looked at that lot and voted their opinions: yeah, nah.
Of course the other 12 per cent promises that MIGHT just have had an impact include halving the ADF, getting rid of our fighters, ships, artillery and tanks. As for stopping extinctions by 2030… scientific rubbish.
And then there was the promise to build a million dwellings.
The sky’s the limit when it comes to bullshitting the punters.
Granny Anny @ #1102 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 4:37 pm
I have a bridge to sell you if you believe that.
haha. There is a comrade who is going to get sent to a Subbies Re-Education Camp.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1273527.shtml
Player One says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 4:16 pm
Everyone seems to agree that the stage 3 tax cuts are unnecessary and should not go ahead.
The only reason anyone can come up with to keep them is that ‘Labor promised’.
And therefore we must waste 19 billion dollars a year. Every year. To give our politicians and CEOs an extra 10k per year. Of our money. Money that could be going to health. Or the NDIS. Or childcare. Or aged care. Or … well … just about anything would be a better use for it than giving it to those who don’t need it.
Seriously, some Labor people need to take a long hard look at themselves. Labor was originally opposed to these tax cuts – then they changed their mind. They can – and should – change their mind again.
This issue is not going to go away. It will dog Labor until they come to their senses.
__________________________________________________________
Labor will keep being dogged by keeping a promise it made until it decides to break it?
So, according to you, Player One, there’s a whole constituency out there calling for the government to break its election promise.
Pull the other one, it sings The Red Flag.
I’d be happy for the tax cuts to be cancelled, but they won’t, because Labor knows it would be subject to a never-ending campaign of, “You lied, you lied, you lied”.
The only people going on about cancelling the stage 3 tax cuts will be the Greens, a few commentators and some posters here. I don’t think the government will be as fussed about that as they would be by a negative campaign, a la the carbon tax.
No doubt you will be going on about it, because you want to belt Labor over the head any time you can with any old stick you can find. I guess that will be one more contorted excuse as to why you’ll be preferencing the Coalition ahead of Labor.
Boerwar
“Like the Liberals, Common Wombats fight with their arses. True fact.”
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/nov/04/wombats-deadly-bums-how-they-use-their-skull-crushing-rumps-to-fight-play-and-flirt
I think that actually explains a great deal of the behaviour of Liberal MPs. Not just the fighting.
There is probably a bit of wombat in Barnaby too.
Sir H P
Exactemundo. The interesting thing is the same people who were touting that the same old same old could not be trusted are doing their best to ensure that the same old same old can’t be trusted.
Now.
Why would that be?
Crass opportunism? Populist poppycock?
Soc
They don’t call it the ‘Wombat Trail’ for nothing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-20/ewart-on-the-wombat-trail-the-history-of-the-nationals/5905454
Sir Henry Parkes @ #1109 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 4:56 pm
So basically you are agreeing with me. You just hate admitting it, so you wrap your agreement in snark.
”
porotisays:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 2:44 pm
Simon Katich os not wrong re the mighty Tashkent Metro. Not that I knew they had one until his post
”
From the writings of Western press and repeated here, Russia is described as if it looks like Somalia.
In the same way the Government has to rebuild trust with Pacific Island nations, it also has to rebuild trust with the electorate.
Things like integrity, openness and honesty are important elements here and if the Government is going to rebuild trust, they need to be consistent in these areas.
I agree with Josh Burns when he says that any changes in taxation needs to be part of a wider package.
Until that happens, just canning the S3 tax cuts would represent a breach of trust.
nath says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 4:36 pm
Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 4:29 pm
If they don’t want to break a promise, they need to call an election and seek a mandate to govern that isn’t based on lying and pretending you can deliver all three.
________
the real problem is that they promised to keep them in the first place. The same cowardice that led them to go along with the demolition of ATSIC, the SSM debate, all the Coalition security laws and everything else that they were terrified of being wedged over. A large streak of cowardice runs through this lot.
____________________________________________________________
Yes nath. If only Labor had listened to people like you the party would be, um, still in opposition.
Albanese promised to run a responsible Govt.
Labors S3 tax cuts are monumentally irresponsible.
Keeping them is a broken promise.
Well, actually, the Three Gorges Dam still has some water in it. C’mon Comrades get your act together. And while you are at it, ramp up your CO2 emissions. You know it makes sense.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/22/china-drought-causes-yangtze-river-to-dry-up-sparking-shortage-of-hydropower
“ The Greens will likely profit at the next election by publicly campaigning the S3 tax cuts. An electoral gift from the establishment parties.”
By campaigning against the tax cuts at teh past two elections, the Greens have likely squeezed every drop of political capital out of the campaign already. Behold the bounty: 12% of the vote.
Player One says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 4:59 pm
Sir Henry Parkes @ #1109 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 4:56 pm
I’d be happy for the tax cuts to be cancelled, but they won’t, because Labor knows it would be subject to a never-ending campaign of, “You lied, you lied, you lied”..
So basically you are agreeing with me. You just hate admitting it, so you wrap your agreement in snark.
__________________________________________________________
Read and properly analyse what I wrote. I would be happy for many things to happen which are not politically possible. Unlike you, I want the Labor government to survive.
There is nothing at all wrong with a government refusing to take an action it fears will be unpopular.
Basically I am not agreeing with you at all. I even question your sincerity about wanting the tax cuts cancelled.
Sir Henry Parkes says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 5:01 pm
nath says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 4:36 pm
Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 4:29 pm
If they don’t want to break a promise, they need to call an election and seek a mandate to govern that isn’t based on lying and pretending you can deliver all three.
________
the real problem is that they promised to keep them in the first place. The same cowardice that led them to go along with the demolition of ATSIC, the SSM debate, all the Coalition security laws and everything else that they were terrified of being wedged over. A large streak of cowardice runs through this lot.
____________________________________________________________
Yes nath. If only Labor had listened to people like you the party would be, um, still in opposition.
____________
I don’t think so. Rudd at least partially stopped the coward show. With Kyoto and opposing Howard’s tax cuts in 2007. Didn’t do him any harm, with a far better majority than they have now.
What is the point of surviving based on atrocious policy …?
That’s Lib thinking.
nath @ #1101 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 4:36 pm
Lol.
You do know who the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff is, don’t you? The guy who ran the ‘Yes’ case for SSM. As Labor weren’t in government they had to go along with whatever means the Coalition chose to get us there.
And I see you’ve brought up the still risible assertion about ‘the demolition of ATSIC’.
One thing I’ll give you, nath, you flog a dead hobby horse with the best of them.
‘All the Coalition’s security laws’. Hmm. So it’s good to know you’re in favour of allowing continued terrorist attacks on the country because without those security laws they’d likely still be occurring to this day.
Now that’s one I must file away. 😀
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 5:04 pm
Thanks Mr Integrity and Honesty.
Is this a new twist on your same same bullshit.
Are Labor now responsible for all the policies and legislation of the previous Government?
Granny Anny @ #1102 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 4:37 pm
You do realise how long it will take to pay back the Coalition’s Trillion dollars of Debt?
”
Socratessays:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 4:57 pm
Boerwar
“Like the Liberals, Common Wombats fight with their arses. True fact.”
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/nov/04/wombats-deadly-bums-how-they-use-their-skull-crushing-rumps-to-fight-play-and-flirt
I think that actually explains a great deal of the behaviour of Liberal MPs. Not just the fighting.
There is probably a bit of wombat in Barnaby too.
”
Socrates
Barnaby acts like a Bandicoot. 🙂
Keeping them is a broken promise.
How Orwellian, Rex Douglas. I bet you’re proud of yourself for that one. 😐
Sir Henry Parkes @ #1120 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 5:10 pm
Right. So you would be happy to see them cancelled. But they won’t be because ‘Labor promised’.
Now, what else do you so violently agree with me on? And feel free to add more snark if it helps you.
C@tmomma says:
‘All the Coalition’s security laws’. Hmm. So it’s good to know you’re in favour of allowing continued terrorist attacks on the country because without those security laws they’d likely still be occurring to this day.
Now that’s one I must file away.
_______
I guess I’ll be c@tegorized with poroti as a terrorist sympathizer now.
nath @ #1121 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 5:12 pm
That would be the first Sitting PM this century to be overthrown by his own party before his term was up? ‘Didn’t do him any harm’ 😆
nath @ #1129 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 5:19 pm
I guess. 😐
I mean, you haven’t disavowed your position that you don’t support the Security laws.
“c@tegorized”
I like it! 🙂
Boerwar says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 4:58 pm
Sir H P
Exactemundo. The interesting thing is the same people who were touting that the same old same old could not be trusted are doing their best to ensure that the same old same old can’t be trusted.
Now.
Why would that be?
Crass opportunism? Populist poppycock?
__________________________________________________________
I think the Greens and some people on the unimaginative left are sincere in preferring that billions be spent on health and education, instead of giving some rich people some generous tax cuts. As I’ve already indicated, I’d like that to happen too.
It’s just that such people often believe that their opinions and those of their peer group are shared by most in the community.
Its similar to some of the campaigners against same sex marriage, like former Senator Fierravanti-Wells, who confidently stated that the majority of Australians were opposed to it, despite a run of polls which indicated otherwise.
C@tmomma, no I don’t know how long it will take to pay off the LNP’s trillion dollar debt. I doubt that anyone else does either.
What I do know is that repealing or deferring the tax cuts will reduce the interest payments by about $22 Billion a year and that could be spent on health and education, benefiting the majority.
As the tax cuts mostly benefit the very well off, I doubt that there would be much of a negative reaction other than what is printed in the billionaires newspapers that very few peoplw read these days.
Sir Henry Parkes @ #1133 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 5:25 pm
So don’t leave us up in the air – are you Green, unimaginative, or insincere?
News camera crews are setting up at Mount Lofty for a possible dusting of snow. Temperatures are dropping. Conditions might be about perfect when it is so dark a picture will tell zero words.
Player One says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 5:19 pm
Right. So you would be happy to see them cancelled. But they won’t be because ‘Labor promised’.
Now, what else do you so violently agree with me on? And feel free to add more snark if it helps you.
___________________________________________________________
You have a great need to needle and argue don’t you?
I will state just one more thing about this subject and maybe, just maybe, you’ll be able to follow it.
I would like the tax cuts to be cancelled, sure, so long as the government could do it without incurring dangerous levels of unpopularity.
You follow so far?
I doubt that would be possible, so I’m not expecting the government to cancel the tax cuts. Do you comprehend that?
I myself would rather the tax cuts remain and the government survive, than the tax cuts be cancelled and the government fall.
What would you prefer, Player One?
Player One @ #1135 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 5:03 pm
What is the difference?
Sir Henry Parkes @ #1137 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 5:38 pm
Only when it so obviously annoys you.
Player Onesays:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 5:33 pm
Sir Henry Parkes @ #1133 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 5:25 pm
I think the Greens and some people on the unimaginative left are sincere in preferring that billions be spent on health and education, instead of giving some rich people some generous tax cuts. As I’ve already indicated, I’d like that to happen too.
So don’t leave us up in the air – are you Green, unimaginative, or insincere?
___________________________________________________________
What a snarky little question that was.
For the record, I am Labor; I am sometimes sympathetic with the Greens; and I have enough imagination to be a pragmatist when it comes to politics and being able to achieve what can be achieved.
I also have buckets load more sincerity than you do.
Simon Katich @ #1138 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 5:42 pm
What is the difference?
Sir Henry presumably thinks there is merit in being one of the three. He just hasn’t told us which.
Crikey taking it up to the Merdochs!
“ Will Hayward, chief executive of Private Media, said he believed it was fair comment to say that the Murdoch-owned US channel Fox News and the people who run it played some role in the January 6 attack on the Capitol, which attempted to prevent the congressional certification of President Joe Biden’s victory.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/crikey-vows-to-see-media-mogul-lachlan-murdoch-in-court-over-us-capitol-article-20220822-p5bbqh.html?btis
Effing hell!!
Go away for a little while and come back to a concern troll infestation!
I don’t think Sir Henry deserves that.
Granny Anny @ #1134 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 5:33 pm
And I know that people maybe don’t read the newspapers but they do read those same media outlets online offerings, they listen to commentators on their radios in the car and they watch shows on TV as they and their families get ready for school and work, plus the 6pm commercial news. And if you don’t think that a conflagration could be made out of walking back the Stage 3 tax cuts by all of the above that would seriously and fatally damage the federal Labor government, then I don’t know what world you are living in because it’s not the real world.
Honestly, I don’t think that Labor will have to even bother about the Stage 3 tax cuts. I saw a graph on the front page of the AFR on the weekend while I waited for a hamburger and it showed that Australia’s commodity earnings were going gangbusters. Combine that with the 15% Multinationals tax and the effect on the Budget bottom line of the Stage 3 tax cuts is going to be small beer in comparison once those things are added. Carrying on now about the Stage 3 tax cuts is simply buying The Greens’ framing and, quite frankly, making a mountain out of a molehill. We haven’t even seen the first Budget of the Labor government yet, fcs!
But carry on, if you must. I’m done with hair on fire commentary by people that can’t see the whole picture. Or who are choosing not to.
TPOF @ #1143 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 5:53 pm
And no prizes for guessing who starts it every day. 😐
Barilaro made ‘outlandish claims’: Kean
https://thenewdaily-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/nsw/2022/08/22/barilaro-made-outlandish-claims-kean/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16611532605610&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fthenewdaily.com.au%2Fnews%2Fstate%2Fnsw%2F2022%2F08%2F22%2Fbarilaro-made-outlandish-claims-kean%2F
From the article:
Matt Kean said he received a lot of “strange and wacky requests” from Mr Barilaro.
“He texted me that he wanted to build nuclear power plants all over the state. He texted me that he wanted to go to the federal parliament. He texted that he wanted to take the National Party out of the government. He texted me that he wanted to kill koalas,” Mr Kean said, later retracting the koala comment.
“John Barilaro made lots of outlandish claims that weren’t genuine.”
Barney at 5.16
…Are Labor now responsible for all the policies and legislation of the previous Government?
____________
Judging by this afternoon’s delightful debate on S3 tax cuts, the answer is “Yes.” Not only that, but ALL Coalition policies and enacted legislation form “tests for Labor” – as defined by the likes of Rex, nath and P1. Should Labor fail said “tests” they are either cowards or Right Wing Arseholes. Unwritten booby-prize: should Labor pass said tests, they will become the first one-term govt since WW2, and will be lectured by the likes of Rex, nath and P1 that, if only they’d had more [insert here] and less [insert here], they’d still be on govt and it’s all Labor’s fault their not. In summary, it’s Labor’s fault whether they’re in govt or not.
Such an edifying afternoon.
David Rowe
” Voters have swung behind Labor with a surge of support to give the new federal government a strong lead in the community with a primary vote of 42 per cent, up from 33 per cent at the election just three months ago.”
Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred PM 55-17.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/post-election-surge-in-support-for-anthony-albanese-s-new-labor-government-20220822-p5bbol.html