Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)

Labor and Anthony Albanese ride high in the first Newspoll since the federal election.

The Australian has published the first Newspoll since the federal election, showing Labor opening up a commanding 56-44 lead, compared with a two-party result of 52.1-47.9 at the election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (compared with 32.6% at the election), Coalition 33% (35.7%), Greens 12% (12.2%), One Nation 6% (5.0%) and United Australia Party 2% (4.1%).

Anthony Albanese’s approval rating has shot from 41% before the election to 61%, while his disapproval rating has fallen from 46% to 26%. The former exceeds honeymoon approval ratings recorded by Tony Abbott (47%), Kevin Rudd (59%) and John Howard (45%) upon Newspoll’s return after the three previous changes of government. The net result of plus 35% is the strongest since the early days of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership in November 2015, and previously by Kevin Rudd in October 2009.

Dutton’s opening numbers are 37% approval and 41% disapproval, and he trails Albanese 59-25 as preferred prime minister, the widest gap in Newspoll since the early days of Rudd’s prime ministership in 2008. Debut results for past opposition leaders were 35% approval and 40% disapproval for Anthony Albanese in 2019, 32% and 24% for Bill Shorten in 2013, 40% and 35% for Tony Abbott in 2010, 50% and 25% for Malcolm Turnbull in 2008, 36% and 19% for Brendan Nelson in 2008 and 41% and 10% for Kevin Rudd in 2006. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1508.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,966 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. ‘Voice Endeavour says:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 4:47 pm

    Alright! Our rating on climate action has been upgraded. To ‘insufficient’!

    Lets all be proud of this massive achievement. Job done!

    https://twitter.com/climateactiontr/status/1555044926374952961/photo/1
    ——————————————————–
    It is a great pity that the Greens fucked over climate action eleven years ago and then spent the next ten years explaining to anyone who would listen that Labor and the Coalition were same old same old.

    Further, it is a great pity that the Greens then proceeded to demonstrate their climate credentials with some very very large lies:
    The Greens will save the Reef.
    The Greens will save the Planet.
    The Greens will stop extinctions by 2030.
    The Greens will force Labor to bend to the Greens will. Remember how the Greens did their best to nobble Labor during the election campaign by announcing their 14 demands and the $173 billion that that was going to cost?

    The tragedy here is that none of you seem to have cottoned on to the connect between your sordid politics and the damage that that has done to the climate these past ten years.

    It turns out that Albanese is smarter than the wedge twins Bandt and Dutton and, as a direct result, Australia will finally, move as a nation on climate change.

    The Greens are so up themselves that they could not admit that legislating 43% could possibly make any difference and that therefore it was OK to be forced to vote for it.

    There is zero doubt that that alone will change the investment environment in renewables. The estimate of pent up investment demand is in excess of $100 billion. Imagine that chuntering through the renewables economy.

    Ooooops! I forgot! The Greens don’t want privately-delivered energy! It is up to the taxpayers to find that $100 billion!

  2. ‘Scott says:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 4:56 pm

    Wasn’t Labor promise that people would see $275 cheaper in electricity prices by 2025’
    —————————–
    Yes. But that was before the Coalition went out of its way to hide a 25% increase in energy prices just before the end of their tawdry period of misrule.

  3. max @ #1837 Thursday, August 4th, 2022 – 4:39 pm

    Rex – will you please stop having your own opinions, or if you must have them please refrain from expressing them: unless of course you can bring yourself to embrace the One Pure Truth: ALP über alles, always, and whether we’re talking policy positions, success in executing political tactics or anything else, and even if today’s One Pure Truth might appear – but only in the eyes of trolls and heretics –to contradict yesterday’s . On the other hand if your opinions align with the One Pure Truth, you may express them freely.

    You don’t seem to do reality. Maybe that’s why you fulsomely support Rex Douglas’ banality?

  4. Jan 6

    …..beautiful young girl in colourful dress struggling under the weight of two large buckets of water. I helped her get them home and her father insisted we come in for tea. I helped her get them home and her father insisted we come in for tea.

    Well of course he took you home for tea. In Uzbek culture helping a girl carry water home is a marriage proposal……….. would you believe 😆

    I had never heard of the place before. It looked quite a ye olde city in the photos Mr Google selected for it when I searched.

  5. Monmouth University Generic Ballot (A rated by 538)

    Democratic 50% (+3)
    Republican 43% (-4)

    28th July-Aug 1st, changes with June

    Turnout model is 45-29-26 Ind/Dem/Rep; 49-51 Male/Female
    _______________________________________________________

    When looking at the 538 Forecast model, you can switch between ‘Lite’, ‘Classic’ and ‘Deluxe’

    The Lite model (based on polling only*) currently has D’s at 75% chance of control in the Senate and 33% in the House

    *There is still some Nate Silver secret sauce in this model as well .. the running polling average is showing a dead heat currently but his Lite model converts this into R+2 on election day

  6. Barney in Cherating says:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:43 pm
    “Oh no!
    Labor stopped a coal mine by applying environmental rules.”

    And that’s the way to do it, no fuss.

  7. “12 degrees
    49mm
    still raining
    wind down to less than 10kph”

    I was going to reply to this earlier but I was relaxing in the warm shade, watching my kids play in the backyard.

    Apparently a koala was spotted in the reserve we back on to – for the first time in living memory. And someone spotted a pheasant coucal last month.

    I haven’t seen the owner of the ~2m skin found wedged between the roof tiles.

    Bloody turkeys are doing a number on one particular patch of lawn. Brush turkeys, the wombats of Brisbane.

  8. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 4:47 pm
    Rex Dutton is the gift that keeps on giving.

    Rex will decide when he’s embarrassed and the manner in which he comes to be embarrassed

  9. “Come now. Privatisation is all about efficiencies and cheaper prices and better service. You know this deep down in your fairy garden heart.”

    Ah yes, and I also know a shibboleth when I hear one.

  10. Dandy Murray-Honeydew at 5:16 pm
    On the bright side, your culinary possibilities with the brush turkeys are a lot brighter than Boerwar’s with his wombats.

  11. Well of course he took you home for tea. In Uzbek culture helping a girl carry water home is a marriage proposal……….. would you believe

    I wouldnt have dared converse with her without Mrs Jan6 there. In Bukhara, the local part Russian baker tried to marry me to his daughter. When I suggested she was much older than I was, he wanted me to see her teeth – full of gold. ‘If she dies first you will be rich!’.

  12. Bloody turkeys are doing a number on one particular patch of lawn. Brush turkeys, the wombats of Brisbane.

    Tastier than wonbats.

  13. ‘poroti says:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 5:22 pm

    Dandy Murray-Honeydew at 5:16 pm
    On the bright side, your culinary possibilities with the brush turkeys are a lot brighter than Boerwar’s with his wombats.’
    ————————-
    Hunter’s stew.

  14. I quite like the bush turkeys when they visit. We have three who do so regularly. The yard out front is devoid of grass, consisting of a few small shrubs (3m or so) hiding the house from the road, and loose litter cover. The birds scratch around and keep the litter from becoming anaerobic. They’re not what you would call pretty, but they are fun to watch. The worst memory of bush turkeys is the noise they make on a flat tin roof, scratching and scratching and pausing, and scratching some more. It’s horrible. But that was decades ago. We don’t have that anymore. (We’ve got the occasional coucal that visits, but they’re much shier.)

  15. I lived in a share house in Auchenflower for a bit. House on the side of a hill.

    We had a turkey try to build a nest on the roof. Fecker was flicking leaf matter on to the roof from the retaining wall outside my bedroom window.

    I’d left the window open.

  16. Thanks, poroti

    ‘Wombat Casserole

    1.5kg Wombat meat
    1 can stewed tomatoes
    1 can cream of mushroom soup
    1 pkg. baby carrots
    6 potatoes, quartered
    1 small pkg. lentils
    1 can tomato juice
    Sliced celery
    Onions
    Green beans
    Method:

    Place all ingredients in casserole dish and cover with foil. Bake at 180 degrees celsius for 12 hours. Eat hearty with a bottle of Bundy.’
    ——————————–
    All my wombats are 100% organic and are made entirely from recycled materials. Plus, they sequester CO2 in cute cubes.

  17. Yes Rex, I guess the ALP were cowered into action to refuse Palmer’s mine proposal by the thought that the Greens were going to line up another convoy.

    And, if that was the Opposition winning question time today, let there be more of it. They were hopeless.

  18. Another snippet from the Alex Jones trial, this from the ‘lawyer on a hot mic during recess’ segment 🙂
    (my bolds)

    matt gkg
    @mattgkg
    Replying to
    @TheRickWilson

    If you watched the recess after this they forgot the stream was still going “you mean you have ALL of the texts. Like EVEN ONES WITH THE SENATOR?” He smiled and said “yup… everything on the phone for the last 2-3 years. There will be months of fallout and discovery here.”
    _______________________________________________________

    We may need to start a book as to the identity of the mystery senator .. I’m going with Josh Hawley

  19. Much as I hate to admit it, Bandt is right about Keating starting the great selling off of public assets. I’m sure the Weasel could not believe his luck when his turn came at the levers of office, with the precedent already set flr him.

  20. ‘Nine months after India announced its target of “net zero” emissions by 2070 the country’s federal cabinet finally approved a new climate plan .. India now stands committed to reducing the emissions by 45% by the year 2030 .. the nation will also aim to achieve about 50% of its energy requirements from non-fossil fuel-based energy sources by the year 2030, and promote a federal government program that encourages people to make green lifestyle changes .. India’s greener power generation has already passed 41%’

    https://apnews.com/article/india-united-nations-glasgow-2dc68eb45ec64a20fa068dabd659fb09

  21. Channel Seven in Melbourne lead with the pressure being on Matthew Guy to resign. I haven’t seen it repeated in the print media or ABC. I think all they had was a bit of ex-Liberal Bernie Finn sticking the boot in hard. But someone might be doing numbers (it is not that hard to count numbers in the Victorian Liberal party as the party room is only 30 members now).

    I would guess the odds of him getting rolled is probably only 50%. Given his poor performance last time, I still struggle to understand why they went back to their vomit (which is a bible quote: Proverbs 26:11).

  22. B.S. Fairman says:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 6:34 pm
    Channel Seven in Melbourne lead with the pressure being on Matthew Guy to resign. I haven’t seen it repeated in the print media or ABC. I think all they had was a bit of ex-Liberal Bernie Finn sticking the boot in hard. But someone might be doing numbers (it is not that hard to count numbers in the Victorian Liberal party as the party room is only 30 members now).

    “I would guess the odds of him getting rolled is probably only 50%. Given his poor performance last time, I still struggle to understand why they went back to their vomit (which is a bible quote: Proverbs 26:11).”

    I’m guessing Dan Andrews would rather Guy stays.

  23. Ray (UK) @ #1877 Thursday, August 4th, 2022 – 6:28 pm

    Another snippet from the Alex Jones trial, this from the ‘lawyer on a hot mic during recess’ segment 🙂
    (my bolds)

    matt gkg
    @mattgkg
    Replying to
    @TheRickWilson

    If you watched the recess after this they forgot the stream was still going “you mean you have ALL of the texts. Like EVEN ONES WITH THE SENATOR?” He smiled and said “yup… everything on the phone for the last 2-3 years. There will be months of fallout and discovery here.”
    _______________________________________________________

    We may need to start a book as to the identity of the mystery senator .. I’m going with Josh Hawley

    I’m going with Ted Cruz or Ron Johnson.

  24. ‘Ray (UK) says:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 6:32 pm

    ‘Nine months after India announced its target of “net zero” emissions by 2070 the country’s federal cabinet finally approved a new climate plan .. India now stands committed to reducing the emissions by 45% by the year 2030 .. the nation will also aim to achieve about 50% of its energy requirements from non-fossil fuel-based energy sources by the year 2030, and promote a federal government program that encourages people to make green lifestyle changes .. India’s greener power generation has already passed 41%’

    https://apnews.com/article/india-united-nations-glasgow-2dc68eb45ec64a20fa068dabd659fb09
    —————————————————-
    They certainly do not have the luxuries of choice that Australia has.
    There are many tens of millions living in poverty.
    In India living in poverty means really living in poverty.
    The population is going up by around 13 million a year, although the rate is declining. An Australia’s worth every two years!
    A key part of the plan is to increase coal fired power consumption of coal from three quarters of a billion tons to a billion tons a year. That should work.
    The Greens are keen to see the end of Australia’s cattle industry in order to get to 75/2030. India has something like 300 million cattle: ten times what Australia has. And in India the cows are sacred.
    Climate change is already stuffing around with the Monsoon and it would not take much by way of perturbation in monsoon patterns to cause famine.
    Anyhoo, the real key to this bullshit furphy announcement is ‘zero net 2070’.

  25. Ray (UK) @ #1879 Thursday, August 4th, 2022 – 6:32 pm

    ‘Nine months after India announced its target of “net zero” emissions by 2070 the country’s federal cabinet finally approved a new climate plan .. India now stands committed to reducing the emissions by 45% by the year 2030 .. the nation will also aim to achieve about 50% of its energy requirements from non-fossil fuel-based energy sources by the year 2030, and promote a federal government program that encourages people to make green lifestyle changes .. India’s greener power generation has already passed 41%’

    https://apnews.com/article/india-united-nations-glasgow-2dc68eb45ec64a20fa068dabd659fb09

    How embarrasing. Right after our policies have been upgraded to be “insufficient” 🙁

  26. Dutton looks a bit like Idi Amin in that Rowe. Bandt looks like Woody Allen. Both the Wedge Twins are on the outer.
    Albanese and Bowen seem to have a teal tinge on their faces.

  27. The Greens have announced that Labor’s climate target of 43/2030 will make the global climate ‘overshoot by 2 degrees’, will kill the Reef, etc, etc, etc.

    The principled thing for the Greens to do was to vote against this wanton destruction.

  28. ABC TV 7pm running with Guy as main news item.
    Finishes with question to Bernie Finn – should Guy resign. Finn replies YES!
    Bring it on!

  29. I suspect that Alex Jones has communicated with more than one Republican senator in that 2 year period, particularly during that time.

  30. duid not recieve much coverige but after only three months denis napthine resigned as ndis chair shortin did not like the appointment off a former liberal premier with litle expirence off the industry he was only on one bord sub commity he only became premier because guy wias in upper house

  31. next bassi needs to quit aspi using his possition to attack hugh whites essay had to admit in his latist colum that after his liberal talking points on labor abandoning concern fooor human rights in china that it was a smart move to reingage dont know which is worse mathew guy or nsww liberals theopposition leader is weak but the liberals will loose the election if elliott becomes dweputy over kean

  32. im a labor party member but there is a few labor partisons who seem to want to shut down any debate that p1 or rex have against labor i do agree that the greens should off backed rudds skeme but rudd refused to negociate refusing to even meet with the greens and talking with turnbull now labors policy has no skeme to actualy force climate action they cant even take on the gas cumpanies to pay tax to introduce gas reserves burnt buy the mining tax but verlandies has shown governments can stand up to vested interests labor should introduce gas reserves on the east coast and have the fight

  33. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/07/31/newspoll-56-44-to-labor-open-thread/comment-page-37/#comment-3961456

    … even before the election they were slow learners.
    All private school kids probably with the nanny or tutor etc doing the home work.
    Of course it took the real genius of Spinocchio to go talk transgenders, abandon long held seats … having stuffed governance, Wuflu, climate, social support before corporate welfare, powershift …
    On the car radio today some opposition senator was asking the newish gov about achievements, it got the non answer it deterved.

  34. The gas cumpanies donate to liberals mainly but labor seems to avooid upseting any major lobey groups allowing our gas to be exboirted over seas australians to pay higher prises desbite calling foor a reserve cooorey and afr would lynn with the gas cumpanies but labor needs to do somthing to keep suply

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