Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)

Labor and Anthony Albanese ride high in the first Newspoll since the federal election.

The Australian has published the first Newspoll since the federal election, showing Labor opening up a commanding 56-44 lead, compared with a two-party result of 52.1-47.9 at the election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (compared with 32.6% at the election), Coalition 33% (35.7%), Greens 12% (12.2%), One Nation 6% (5.0%) and United Australia Party 2% (4.1%).

Anthony Albanese’s approval rating has shot from 41% before the election to 61%, while his disapproval rating has fallen from 46% to 26%. The former exceeds honeymoon approval ratings recorded by Tony Abbott (47%), Kevin Rudd (59%) and John Howard (45%) upon Newspoll’s return after the three previous changes of government. The net result of plus 35% is the strongest since the early days of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership in November 2015, and previously by Kevin Rudd in October 2009.

Dutton’s opening numbers are 37% approval and 41% disapproval, and he trails Albanese 59-25 as preferred prime minister, the widest gap in Newspoll since the early days of Rudd’s prime ministership in 2008. Debut results for past opposition leaders were 35% approval and 40% disapproval for Anthony Albanese in 2019, 32% and 24% for Bill Shorten in 2013, 40% and 35% for Tony Abbott in 2010, 50% and 25% for Malcolm Turnbull in 2008, 36% and 19% for Brendan Nelson in 2008 and 41% and 10% for Kevin Rudd in 2006. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1508.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,966 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. I have been digging. First at the disconnect between Bidens approval rating and the generic polling. Then at Generic polling in general this far out from the midterms and how it tracks. Then…. wondering if this midterm might be different in a way that gives the Democrats a chance….. Roe V Wade maybe?

    Voter enthusiasm.

    The Marquette poll from 2nd week of July polled on voter enthusiasm. First by party identification. The Republicans are polling as much more enthused about voting in November. 88 to 76. With Independents at 56. They also polled by pro or anti RoevWade overthrow. People who are for the overthrow are more enthusiastic to vote in the midterms 79-68.
    This does not bode well. Trump and his henchmen have the base whipped up, angry and turning out. The threat of losing the senate and house to these authoritarian thugs is not enough to enthuse the independents and democrats. What does it take? It may be easy to blame Biden but this has happened before to far more charismatic Democrat Presidents.

    https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/poll-release/

  2. Labor were on the back foot re the $275 energy bill saving promise and the superfund disclosures issue.

    You’d have to give this QT to the Opposition.

  3. Shellbellsays:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:01 pm

    Mrs Shellbell flew with Buddha airlines in Nepal. Apparently, so flying gives you a chance to get closer to Buddha.

    Flying Air India from Varanasi to Kathmandu was comparable to flying Qantas. Fortunately it was only a couple of hours. 🙂

  4. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:14 pm

    Labor were on the back foot re the $275 energy bill saving promise and the superfund disclosures issue.

    You’d have to give this QT to the Opposition.

    Do you actually listen to the answers?

  5. Democrat chances in the House jumped from 17 to 20%. Unclear if that’s movement due to new polling, or if the Kansas turnout/result has impacted assumed turnout in the 538 model.

    D remain slightly favoured to retain the senate, at 57%. The advantage there is mostly driven by the fact that a 50 50 tie gets broken the Democrat’s way.

  6. BK

    “The opposition members are carrying on like a bunch of unregistered dogs.”

    Are you sure BK? They look neutered to me.

  7. On Uzbek Airlines

    Flew Uzbek Air from KL to Tashkent. The seats were hard and threadbare, and when they opened the doors at the end of the flight I realised there had been no oxygen in the cabin…was my worst flight ever.

  8. Rex, you are totally embarrassing yourself today, or are you taking on the role of anti Labor Poll Bludger troll?
    The government looks well on top to me, the Liberals in comparison are a rabble.

  9. Jan 6 @3:13. In the early 90s I had the dubious pleasure of flying Syrian Arab Air into Damascus. Aside from the unscheduled stop for refueling along the way, the thing that really got me was the announcement as we boarded: “smoking on the left, non-smoking on the right”. I kid you not.

  10. Evan @ #1811 Thursday, August 4th, 2022 – 3:27 pm

    Rex, you are totally embarrassing yourself today, or are you taking on the role of anti Labor Poll Bludger troll?
    The government looks well on top to me, the Liberals in comparison are a rabble.

    He’s not going to have a leg to stand on soon with his ‘Fossil Fuel cartel’ claptrap:

    The Queensland Conservation Council has welcomed the news Murph reported that Tanya Plibersek has rejected Clive Palmer’s application for a new coal mine:

    This is a victory for Queensland and the Great Barrier Reef,” said Dave Copeman, Queensland Conservation Council’s Director.

    Building a new thermal coal mine 10km from the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area was an extreme, dangerous proposal, even for Clive Palmer.”

    This is a sensible application of the Environmental Protection Biodiversity Conservation Act. This mine would have impacted on dugong and turtle habitats, and been another unacceptable risk to the Great Barrier Reef. This prompt decision is a welcome change from the delayed and questionable making approach of the previous Morrison Government”

    It looks like we now have a Minister that understands the science, is willing to listen to community concerns, and act accordingly”.

    Per The Guardian

  11. Just watched Bandt @ Thorpe throwing a dummy spit after being rendered irrelevant after the passing of Labor’s climate bill. Poor little Adam, Diddums, was nearly in tears cos big, bad Paul Keating said mean things about how in the real world how little impact both the Greens @ Bandt have been. Now he wants to challenge big, bad, meanie Paul to a duel at the NPC . What a pathetic pissant little Adam is,Keating would eat this nobody for lunch

  12. torchbearer @ #1810 Thursday, August 4th, 2022 – 2:56 pm

    On Uzbek Airlines

    Flew Uzbek Air from KL to Tashkent. The seats were hard and threadbare, and when they opened the doors at the end of the flight I realised there had been no oxygen in the cabin…was my worst flight ever.

    No backrest for the whole way from Tashkent to Urgench (I think it was Urgench). I wasnt the only one. Plenty of smokers. Some farm animals. An experience. It was a relief to get to Khiva and relax.

  13. Barney in Cherating @ #1807 Thursday, August 4th, 2022 – 3:18 pm

    Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:14 pm

    Labor were on the back foot re the $275 energy bill saving promise and the superfund disclosures issue.

    You’d have to give this QT to the Opposition.

    Do you actually listen to the answers?

    I doubt it. He has his lines, he’s gonna roll them out.

    Honestly, if you analyse the Opposition’s ‘Energy bills haven’t gone down by $275 yet’ malarkey, you simply have to respond…well the Coalition held back the 15% increase that was in the pipeline, how were Labor supposed to know about that? Not to mention, there hasn’t even been time for a quarterly energy bill yet for most people, let alone Labor having had the time to put in place cost reduction measures. They only passed the Climate Change Bill today! FCS!

    I concur with your trolling assessment.

  14. Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen has said the bill’s success in the lower house is a great day for Australia including four cross bench amendments.

    These were Curtin MP Kate Chaney’s changes to make clear the legislation was aimed at urgent action on climate change; Goldstein MP Zoe Daniel’s requirement that the target be a floor rather tUan a ceiling; Indi MP Helen Haines’ requirement that benefits to regional communities be taken into account in assessing the effectiveness of legislation; and Member for Warringah Zali Steggall’s move that future updates to targets under the Paris Agreement must draw on expert advice from the Climate Change Authority. Separate bids from the Greens and Andrew Wilkie to lift the emissions cuts to 75 per cent were defeated.

    WHO VOTED ?

    In the final vote, the overwhelming support for the bill came from Labor, the four Greens MPs and crossbenchers Zoe Daniel, Monique Ryan, Sophie Scamps, Rebekha Sharkie, Allegra Spender, Zali Steggall, Kylea Tink and Andrew Wilkie for a 79-55 result.

    Kate Chaney and Helen Haines were absent because they caught COVID-19 earlier in the week and are isolating.Liberal MP Bridget Archer crossed the floor to support the legislation.
    The rest of the Coalition voted against it. Crossbenchers Bob Katter and Dai Le abstained.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-greens-to-back-labor-s-climate-bill-rba-flags-slower-growth-higher-unemployment-20220803-p5b6zp.html

    Good to see the Greens showing some common sense and backing a good bill for a change. Methinks the Greenies voters would really be pissed if they had just gone with a blocking and whining approach again. And again, Ms Archer crossed the floor in my seat of Bass. You go girl.

    PS I don’t get why people continue to pay any attention to the Rex troll on PB. Like Dutton’s ‘nuclear power’ option, he is irrelevant.

  15. “I believe I first suggested on this blog that the Federal government invest in upgrading the inter-State grid to improve the feasibility of renewable energy back around the time of the Rudd stimulus package back in 2008-09”

    Yeah, yeah 🙂 The idea was first floated before the SA energy board was sold off.

    But they couldn’t have all that extra competition from interstate pushing down the price of power and lowering the value of the generation assets they were (giving) selling to their maaates.

  16. FWIW, our electricity provider billed us $12.27 this quarter after deciding to estimate the meter readings. We expect they won’t do that again. But since the previous bill was $261.39 we can actually say that our bill went down by $249.12. It’s not $275, but since out previous bill was only $261…
    🙂

  17. QT?

    I suspect that the Opposition is starting to learn exactly why they were kicked out. That said, they do not seem to be fast learners.

  18. But they couldn’t have all that extra competition from interstate pushing down the price of power and lowering the value of the generation assets they were (giving) selling to their maaates.

    Come now. Privatisation is all about efficiencies and cheaper prices and better service. You know this deep down in your fairy garden heart.

  19. I assume that that was the easiest sitting fortnight that Labor might experience for the next three years. Perhaps not. Whatever.
    It was great fun watching it.

  20. Wells, under Labor, will be putting in a submission to the Fair Work Commission on workers in Aged Care. Just another one of those many things that governments can do. If they want to.
    4 out of 5 aged care workers are women.
    Yet another activity which will help close the pay gap and make sure that no-one is left behind.

  21. “Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:14 pm
    Labor were on the back foot re the $275 energy bill saving promise and the superfund disclosures issue.

    You’d have to give this QT to the Opposition.”

    National poll on who won today’s QT:
    The Opposition won: 1
    The Government won: Just about everybody else….

    Tomorrow is another day, Rex….. 🙂

  22. “Barney in Cherating says:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:43 pm
    Oh no!

    Labor stopped a coal mine by applying environmental rules.”…

    Bandt is furious, that would make him redundant!

  23. I see the pressure of the growing progressive vote for the Teal/Greens has forced Labor’s hand re Palmers proposed coal mine. Well done voters.

  24. Rex – will you please stop having your own opinions, or if you must have them please refrain from expressing them: unless of course you can bring yourself to embrace the One Pure Truth: ALP über alles, always, and whether we’re talking policy positions, success in executing political tactics or anything else, and even if today’s One Pure Truth might appear – but only in the eyes of trolls and heretics –to contradict yesterday’s . On the other hand if your opinions align with the One Pure Truth, you may express them freely.

  25. “mundo says:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:36 pm

    …I’d put most of the opposition front bench on suicide watch.”

    No need to, they have already solved the problem: get thrown out of Parliament by the speaker on Thursday arvo and start a very long week-end earlier than anybody else in the chamber. Turds always find a way to stay afloat…..

  26. I suppose no comment from the Greens:

    Conservationists welcome Plibersek’s move to block Clive Palmer mine

    The Queensland Conservation Council has welcomed the news Murph reported that Tanya Plibersek plans to block Clive Palmer’s application for a new coal mine.

    The council’s director Dave Copeman says:

    This is a victory for Queensland and the Great Barrier Reef.

    Building a new thermal coal mine 10km from the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area was an extreme, dangerous proposal, even for Clive Palmer.

    This is a sensible application of the Environmental Protection Biodiversity Conservation Act. This mine would have impacted on dugong and turtle habitats, and been another unacceptable risk to the Great Barrier Reef.

    This prompt decision is a welcome change from the delayed and questionable decision-making approach of the previous Morrison Government.”

    It looks like we now have a Minister that understands the science, is willing to listen to community concerns, and act accordingly.

  27. “max says:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 4:39 pm
    Rex – will you please stop having your own opinions”…. What? and deprive us of great fun and entertainment?…. Never!…. Hey Rex, keep writing posts with your opinions…. 🙂

  28. It’s going to be interesting to see if Pocock or JLN can get more out of Labor re the 43% bill and send it back to the house …?

  29. “frednk says:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 4:41 pm
    I suppose no comment from the Greens:

    Conservationists welcome Plibersek’s move to block Clive Palmer mine”….

    Hang on a minute, wait for Bandt’s comment: “Why was the move announced today, when it could have been announced last month?… Labor are neoliberals and in the pockets of big business… etc.”.

  30. Ferocious anger and rage being performed by the Chicommies. These guys give anger management a whole new meaning.
    All the usual China stuff is there: bluster, sabre rattling, snorting, threats of war, personal threats, intimidation, commercial punishments, economic punishments, live firing, cyber attacks, war ships, war planes, helicopters, boundary crossings…
    …this all makes a welcome break from the utterly hypocritical Kumbayah Chicommies urging peace and friendship (a la Greens’ Steele-John) in some other international contexts.

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/

    What IS notable is that Australia is being treated as a neutral in this rage blizzard. All WE get is an anodyne puff piece on some cultural event or other:

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1271901.shtml

  31. “Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 4:39 pm
    I see the pressure of the growing progressive vote for the Teal/Greens has forced Labor’s hand re Palmers proposed coal mine. Well done voters.”…

    Good point, Rex: Hey, voters in Liberal/Nationals/LNP-held seats, vote for the Teals (or even the Greens), grow that progressive vote!!

  32. poroti, I dont remember Hilot the Camel. I do remember wandering the back streets of the old town with Mrs Jan6 and coming across a beautiful young girl in colourful dress struggling under the weight of two large buckets of water. I helped her get them home and her father insisted we come in for tea.

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