The Australian has published the first Newspoll since the federal election, showing Labor opening up a commanding 56-44 lead, compared with a two-party result of 52.1-47.9 at the election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (compared with 32.6% at the election), Coalition 33% (35.7%), Greens 12% (12.2%), One Nation 6% (5.0%) and United Australia Party 2% (4.1%).
Anthony Albanese’s approval rating has shot from 41% before the election to 61%, while his disapproval rating has fallen from 46% to 26%. The former exceeds honeymoon approval ratings recorded by Tony Abbott (47%), Kevin Rudd (59%) and John Howard (45%) upon Newspoll’s return after the three previous changes of government. The net result of plus 35% is the strongest since the early days of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership in November 2015, and previously by Kevin Rudd in October 2009.
Dutton’s opening numbers are 37% approval and 41% disapproval, and he trails Albanese 59-25 as preferred prime minister, the widest gap in Newspoll since the early days of Rudd’s prime ministership in 2008. Debut results for past opposition leaders were 35% approval and 40% disapproval for Anthony Albanese in 2019, 32% and 24% for Bill Shorten in 2013, 40% and 35% for Tony Abbott in 2010, 50% and 25% for Malcolm Turnbull in 2008, 36% and 19% for Brendan Nelson in 2008 and 41% and 10% for Kevin Rudd in 2006. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1508.
Cronus,
Re the AFR:
Pretzel Logic
Socrates
“ If some comments from friends in SA are anything to go by, Dutton is unelectable in SA.”
And that is comforting to hear.
Morrison just being sworn in.
BK @ #103 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 10:03 am
Sworn in or sworn at?
The thing about Dutton’s Newspoll standing is that very few have seen him in action as LOTO yet. He could be in for a tough polling time.
poroti says:
Monday, August 1, 2022 at 9:23 am
imacca at 9:14 am
“Hope the Govt sits the bastards on the rough end of a pineappleduring “discussions”.
I hope so too but do not have high hopes. The companies involved are huge and have decades of experience in handling bolshie governments and have a very impressive win/loss ration.”
I hope that the government reminds these corporations that their contracts don’t in any way guarantee super profits any more than the corporations might threaten concerns over sovereign risk. They can take it or leave it as far as I’m concerned. I’m ok with them profiting but not at the expense of Australians. Again, It’s just commonsense.
Player One says:
Monday, August 1, 2022 at 9:52 am
No time to bludge @ #93 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 9:43 am
Labor’s traditional hostility towards the Greens ……is a fiction. To the extent there is friction with the Greens, this originates from the eternal Labor-hostile campaigning of the wretched Apostasy, who benefit from the assignment of Labor-prefs with any pre-conditions, while gratifying themselves with dysfunctional but politically profitable Labor-phobics.
The Greens are a Labor-phobic outfit. Menadue has things wrong. They will clearly not be able to bring themselves to support Labor on the climate. They are defined by their prejudices….just as the Lying Reactionaries are defined by theirs.
Have you ever considered stand-up?
Nup. I’m a portrait and whole figure artist. I try to describe what I see. This involves asking lots of questions, the most important ones being “What can I see? What am I actually looking at? What is it that I see? How can I depict that?”
It’s an interesting and rewarding practice, and not at all easy.
What reading did he score on the ‘Smirkometer’ at the swearing
atin ?Thank you BK, as always.
“Albanese takes welcome first step but government needs to produce Voice detail” – Michelle Grattan
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-albanese-takes-welcome-first-step-but-government-needs-to-produce-voice-detail-187981
I come at this from a privileged perspective (white, male, 65) and a realisation that habits die hard. Based on a simple reading of the proposed language for the referendum I wondered what the point was. (I think I posted as much here.) I saw the point after reading the Statement from the Heart and then hearing the Prime Minister’s speech on the subject. This is a gift we should accept with grace.
So I disagree with Grattan. Focussing on “missing detail” misses the point, or deliberately deflects from it. As far as I understand it, the referendum seeks to create a strong permanent symbol and a placeholder with clear limits, to be filled and adjusted as needed. The lack of detail is by long term design, not for short term politics. No-one loses. Everyone wins.
So I think there are only two valid issues worth discussing.
(1) The symbolism.
(2) The limits.
-??-
“Missing detail” means “give us some little thing to scaremonger about”.
Late Riser @ #109 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 10:12 am
Perhaps Labor could try the line that the proposed “Voice” amendment represents a floor and not a ceiling? 🙂
Grattan adopting the Coalition line.
The brilliant Julia Ioffe on Ukraine:
https://youtu.be/kaErzNRh3LM
With glee and appreciation I just watched the introduction of the Restoring Territory Rights Bill 2022.
”
Late Risersays:
Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:07 am
Comparing apples and apples, comparing the previous Newspoll with tonight’s gives us:
ALP 53.5 v 46.5 LNP May 20
ALP 56.0 v 44.0 LNP July 31
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/bludgertrack2022/
Albanese’s honeymoon numbers, by surpassing Abbott, Rudd and Howard, make for interesting speculation. Thinking about those, and acknowledging that a population of four is crap stats, nevertheless it’s interesting that Labor PMs enjoy a greater honeymoon approval than Coalition PMs.
”
But the LNP PMs stay longer. I wonder why? Isn’t that more important than higher honeymoon ratings.
Newly married stay in bliss during honeymoon period. It is when you start a family things go either well or pearshaped depending how you maintain your relationship.
People who manage, understand eachother and make comprises have long, healthy and loving relationship in marriages.
People who try to scheme, try to do oneupmanship and dominate will not have happy marriages.
P1,
The yanks are going hell-for-leather for direct air capture, sequestration, and SMR technology. I.e. their net zero plan includes CCS.
They also have a world-leading waste methane capture subsidy scheme, which incentivises fugitive CH4 emissions capture, and are working hard on synthetic CH4 production, to begin to close the carbon fuel cycle.
But cherry-pick and criticise away!
This Newspoll puts ‘same old same old’ to bed.
There is movement towards the centre left from both the extreme left and the extreme right. UA and the Greens both went backwards.
It confirms that Australians do not support 23%, 60% or 75%.
It confirms that Labor’s 12 initiatives and achievements in relation to women have been well received.
It confirms that Labor has done well to dismiss the unctious advice of those who lack anything like a popular mandate for any of their pet projects.
It confirms that Labor’s ministers have been well-received.
Finally, it confirms that Albanese was underestimated all along.
”
Dutton’s opening numbers are 37% approval and 41% disapproval, and he trails Albanese 59-25 as preferred prime minister, the widest gap in Newspoll since the early days of Rudd’s prime ministership in 2008.
”
Now we why the Essential, Newspoll, Morgan poll did not want to publish Dutton approval ratings. Or they might have polled them and did not publish them because they were under the affects of LNP Stockholm syndrome. 🙂
Ven, if you want to drag out the metaphor, perhaps consider too why DV victims stay in an abusive relationship.
BK at 10:15 am
Not giving any details would also be an invite for opponents to ‘just make shit up’ about what it actually involves. Politicians asking people to “trust me ” is never an easy sell.
The only guaranteed winners at the moment are the Shout Back Radio owners and their shock jocks. It will be happy happy days for them, their audiences will be ‘energized’ .
Late Riser at 10.12 am
The detail ignored by Grattan et.al. is the failure of policies in Australia on Indigenous affairs since the Keating government.
As a journo from wayback, Grattan must be aware of that failure. Choosing to ignore that failure is 1 out of 10 journalism.
Rudd was good on the Apology but he continued the appalling and discredited NT Emergency Response. He promised much more than he really delivered.
BK @ #104 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 10:03 am
To an empty chamber? 🙂
”
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 11:23 pm
City slickers wearing an akubra.
It just never looks right for some reason.
”
Did IPA asked you to wear rural hat now?
You wore lazy state government employee who works from home hat, you wore city slicker hat who cries in the car when Australian athelete wins a medal, you wore the poor worker hat who desperately needs the 5.1% inflation wage rise and you regularly wear IPA hat.
Cronus @ #103 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 9:59 am
What I want to hear, Mr Cronus, is what people in Queensland think about the Albanese government? 🙂
Taylormade may have a point 😀
Yes those who preferred a Shorten leadership for 6 years should be red-faced reading this Newspoll
So far among the CCS boondoggles that scheme has my No.1 rating for least likely.
poroti,
Have a look around.
I think the feeling is that we may not have a choice.
Dandy Murray-Honeydew @ #116 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 10:30 am
So you still support new fossil fuel extraction? Even knowing what we now know?
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 10:05 pm
From the last thread, Re: Domicron’s Sunday night assassination of Petinos, and his statement:
“ … after some further matters concerning her were brought to my attention. …”
Will anyone in the MSM have the gumption to actually ask what the ‘further matters’ were? Will Minns?
”
AE
Things are getting really absurd with Minns. He said he doesn’t want any political scalps after the NSW LNP State government gave him the political scalps of its leadership team (Gladys B, DoPe, Barilaro, and Stuart Ayres) on a shining silver platter.
Now Dope says he doesn’t care Minns wants those political scalps or not. He will hang some new scalps from Minns political cowboy belt like Petinos. Gladys B and Barilaro scalps are already handing from Minns political cowboy belt whether he likes it or not. 🙂
This is seriously hilarious.
William, is this time gap between election and first News Poll consistent with the past?
It feels like a long time.
”
Cronussays:
Monday, August 1, 2022 at 7:09 am
I’m very much appreciating not have having to listen to Morrison’s lies and observe his arrogant and supercilious expressions on a daily basis. May he never surface publicly again.
”
I don’t miss his daily stunts at all. 🙂
BK says:
Monday, August 1, 2022 at 10:15 am
“Missing detail” means “give us some little thing to scaremonger about”.
And that’s a fact Jack. Whether or not detail is provided, the naysayers will fight to delay, disrupt and finally prevent. Detail is simply an excuse for them, not a genuine requirement. Acknowledging the original inhabitants of the continent doesn’t require detail, just a heart and a shred of decency.
Ven @ #132 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 10:57 am
Amen.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/08/01/labor-climate-change-kohler/
Alan Kohler: “Labor’s climate change safeguard mechanism is going to be a minefield”
Bloody subeditors! What he actually wrote was “Labor’s climate change safeguard mechanism is going to be a Coalmine and Gasfield”
Michelle Grattan comes from establishment family and has written Liberal leaning commentary since 1970
Time she was put out to pasture like her horses
The ‘details’ of the way in the Voice will operate are not fixed and will not go into the Constitution. Those details will be sorted by the parliament of the day. At any one time this would need a majority in both the House and Senate. The latter means that in current circumstances Senator Thorpe’s vote would make or break the details!
I suspect that this approach is based on the politiical calculus that this is the only basis on which the Liberals could or would support a Referendum.. without which any referendum would most likely fail.
That leaves the Nationals, the Greens, PHON and UA as possible blockers and wreckers. Between them, they have around a quarter of the vote.
Si, things are very very tight for the referendum.
P1,
I support rapid net decarbonisation, which may involve continued NG extraction for some time if it is the quickest way to reduce carbon emissions.
I’ve explained this before.
”
Andrew Bolt reckons Anthony Albanese’s push for Aboriginal Voice will ruin Australia’s future.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/andrew-bolt/andrew-bolt-anthony-albaneses-push-for-aboriginal-voice-will-ruin-australias-future/news-story/0961ad8bb8a1c2f6621677428f96b7ce?amp
”
Does Steely work for Bolt? 🙂
”
The Whitlam Government took office with public support for fundamental changes in our approach to our region, to embrace reality. The Albanese government is tangled in the neocon skirts of Morrison and Dutton, opines Dennis Argall.
https://johnmenadue.com/teal-is-important-but-blood-red-international-issues-are-dangerously-neglected/
”
WTF?
BK @ #103 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 10:03 am
I wonder if Albo is going to go up and shake his hand?
A la Bill and Smirko in 2019.
Dandy Murray-Honeydew @ #128 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 10:20 am
I see your problem. You are too focussed on the engineering, the science, the economics and the sociopolitics.
“There’s been 10 years of reports, parliamentary inquiries, discussions with constitutional lawyers, there has been a lot of discussions with Aboriginal leaders,” Ms Burney said.
“There is a lot of detail out there in the community.
“The last thing that we would want, which we have seen in the past in turns of referendums, is a proposition or a question that people can’t sign up to.”
I think Linda Burney has summed it up clearly and succinctly. Only politics from competing parties can prevent this from occurring. It just makes sense to the significant majority and there’s no strong nor reasonable argument against it.
The only real reason the Coalition would have for opposing it is that they might think it further strengthens Labor’s standing in the eyes of voters and therefore should be prevented at all costs, regardless of the inarguable fairness and decency of this issue. Let’s face it, it neither hurts nor disenfranchises any Australian but it does have the potential to further unite Australians as well as acknowledging historical facts.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-01/indigenous-minister-australia-ready-for-voice-referendum/101287348
Ven says:
Monday, August 1, 2022 at 10:27 am
”
Late Risersays:
Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:07 am
Comparing apples and apples, comparing the previous Newspoll with tonight’s gives us:
ALP 53.5 v 46.5 LNP May 20
ALP 56.0 v 44.0 LNP July 31
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/bludgertrack2022/
Albanese’s honeymoon numbers, by surpassing Abbott, Rudd and Howard, make for interesting speculation. Thinking about those, and acknowledging that a population of four is crap stats, nevertheless it’s interesting that Labor PMs enjoy a greater honeymoon approval than Coalition PMs.
”
“But the LNP PMs stay longer. I wonder why? Isn’t that more important than higher honeymoon ratings.
Newly married stay in bliss during honeymoon period. It is when you start a family things go either well or pearshaped depending how you maintain your relationship.
People who manage, understand eachother and make comprises have long, healthy and loving relationship in marriages.
People who try to scheme, try to do oneupmanship and dominate will not have happy marriages.”
This is a difficult analogy to use. Some people stay in or are forced to stay in relationships they shouldn’t and sometimes the results are disastrous. I think it’s the quality of the time and not the length of time that is important.
Ven @ #141 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 11:06 am
I know, right? 🙄
There are some from the Left who want a Labor government to be Whitlamesque or bust. Such as that guy, who is a former adviser to Lionel Bowen. But there’s been a LOT of water under the bridge since then and the temper of the times is important for a government to reflect, as well as pursuing your ideology.
Vensays:
Monday, August 1, 2022 at 10:27 am
But the LNP PMs stay longer. I wonder why? Isn’t that more important than higher honeymoon ratings.
_____________________
It sure is Ven.
Too much factional brawling is the reason why they don’t last long.
Once the polls start to dip it will be on for young and old.
Cronus
The Greens went into the election opposing the Statement. The have continued to Greenant it since. They have set a low bar for the Coalition
Maaaates reunited 🙂
Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison talks to Opposition leader Peter Dutton Photograph: Mike Bowers
Cronussays:
Monday, August 1, 2022 at 11:11 am
The LNP will grab at any excuse to say NO.
That is what the GOP would do.
They will try to argue that granting a voice will diminish the rights of everyone else.
Strangely to some, that will appeal as irrefutable logic.
With regards to the piece in The Conversation about how politics is reported listen to Mr James O’Brien who said
People need to know how governments will execute things
But we have voted in performative clowns who do nothing or wreck and steal
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fUlzIKruFkw
https://theconversation.com/albanese-wants-to-change-the-way-politics-is-done-this-means-the-way-politics-is-reported-will-have-to-change-too-187778