Liberal with the truth

A look back on what internal Liberal polling appeared to be saying ahead of the May election, and the related matter of the Katherine Deves controversy.

Last week I took a big picture look at how the main public pollsters performed in their immediate pre-election polling. Today I offer a necessarily incomplete account of the only partly knowable subject of internal party polling – specifically that of the Liberal Party, and how it played out against the backdrop of bitter conflict over its strategy of the campaign of pursuing culturally conservative constituencies at a time when those under threat from the teal independents needed every socially liberal vote they could get.

Much of this story relates to the controversy surrounding Warringah candidate Katherine Deves, which Scott Morrison appeared to consider the key to unlocking enough Labor-held seats in the outer suburbs and regions to balance defeats in inner metropolitan seats, at least to the extent of allowing him to hold on to power in a minority government. The notion that this strategy might have been hitting its mark was not the exclusive preserve of Liberal Party optimists. Shortly after the controversy first emerged early in the campaign, Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review wrote that “in the suburbs, the regions and the religious communities, the government – and Labor – believes the Deves issue is going gangbusters in Scott Morrison’s favour, messy as it may be”. A week later, Chris Uhlmann cited a Labor strategist in the Age/Herald who believed the issue was playing “90/10 in Deves’ favour” in the suburbs and the regions. Cameron Milner, a former Queensland Labor state secretary now all too comfortable in a new perch on The Australian’s op-ed page, described the Liberals’ exploitation of the controversy as “brilliant foghorn politics” that would yield a bumper crop of Hanson and Palmer preferences.

When Deves recanted her initial apology for her comments a fortnight out from the election, Niki Savva in the Age/Herald cited a Liberal source saying this had been “set up deliberately to resuscitate the issue”. Complicating the notion of a divide between what Uhlmann called “the inner-city bubble” and mainstream opinion further afield, Lanai Scarr of The West Australian reported that some were “even tipping Deves could pull off her own ‘miracle’ win and insulate other conservative electorates nationally in the process”, potentially saving the Liberals in such difficult contests as the Perth seat of Swan.

Needless to say, none of this looks terribly prescient now that the election’s unknowns are known. The possibility that the Liberals were acting on faulty intelligence is intriguingly raised by a report from Peter van Onselen on Ten News four days out from the election, which related that Liberal polling had Katherine Deves trailing Zali Steggall by only 53-47 – quite a lot closer than Steggall’s eventual winning margin of 61-39. Lest it be thought that this was some kind of Liberal Party psyop, it formed part of a batch of polling that was otherwise disastrous for the Liberals, with two-party preferred scores inclusive of an uncommitted component showing them trailing 50-43 in Bennelong and 50-41 in Parramatta (worse than their actual losing margins) and 49-48 in Reid (better), with particularly large deficits among women.

This happened to be the second batch of Liberal seat polling that van Onselen had been able to report late in the campaign, the first of which emerged as a bone of contention post-election in the party’s deepening culture war over the teal independent seats and whether they should be cut loose in favour of a more populist approach that took its cues from Donald Trump. This had the Liberal primary vote at 43% in Kooyong, 37% in Goldstein and 44% in Higgins, which bore up quite well against respective final results of 42.7%, 40.4% and 40.7%. Shortly after the election, Sharri Markson of The Australian recorded the following reaction to the leak inside the Liberal camp:

Senior Liberal figures scratched their heads, wondering where it had originated. The precise numbers did not reflect what was emanating from the party’s official poster, Crosby Textor. An internal probe discovered that (Senator Andrew) Bragg had submitted expenses to the NSW Liberal division of about $35,000 to $40,000 to conduct his own alternative polling in many NSW seats. There is no suggestion that Bragg leaked the polling to van Onselen, which he denies. It was not in his interest to depress the prospects of candidates he was fighting hard to help win. It’s not even clear whether the polling Bragg commissioned was the same polling broadcast on Ten. However, Morrison’s team believed it was.

Bragg had circulated the polling he commissioned to many Liberals – an action one source described as “sloppy” – and the suggestion is a recipient subsequently leaked it to the media. Questioned about the research for this article, Bragg admits he commissioned alternate polling and is scathing about the way Liberal headquarters and Crosby Textor treat Liberal candidates, who he says are kept in the dark about how they are faring.

“The Liberal Party and Crosby Textor treat the candidates like absolute shit and don’t give them the information they need,” Bragg says. “The candidates, who are often members of parliament, all they are given is a phone briefing and if they’re lucky they might get a piece of paper. Crosby Textor omit key things like the favourability of the leader because they’re worried that will leak to the media. If you know the party leader is massively unpopular you’ll differentiate so you can hang onto the seat. But if you’re not told that how are you supposed to know? It’s conflicts galore.”

Echoes of Bragg’s criticism were to be heard outside the tent from Kos Samaras, who as one of the principals of the Redbridge Group had provided polling and strategic advice to Climate 200 (with which, as per the disclosure notice at the bottom of this site’s sidebar, I was involved myself):

Why did the teals win? Many reasons. But at the centre of the campaign was an absolute commitment to the data. There were no games with what the internal polling said. There were no favourites shown, whereby resources are sent into a seat, even though the polling painted a different picture … (The Liberals) poured resouces into one seat, Kooyong, at the expense of others, even though their data was indeed showing a grim picture. That picture of course was never told, as the constant backgrounding into the media was akin to a story-telling session, skunk drunk, at a pub. The Liberal decision-making was riddled with bias and subjectivity, fuelled by an internal factional structure that made it impossible for data to be utilised correctly.

If early indications are anything to go by, the tension between the Liberal Party’s determination to tack to the right on cultural issues and electoral imperatives to win the favour of more liberally minded voters could be set to play out again at the Victorian state election in November. Stay tuned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

36 comments on “Liberal with the truth”

  1. Thanks William

    “ If early indications are anything to go by, the tension between the Liberal Party’s determination to tack to the right on cultural issues and electoral imperatives to win the favour of more liberally minded voters could be set to play out again at the Victorian state election in November. Stay tuned.”

    Actually, I’m not seeing any change of direction from these tactics in the current federal Liberal opposition. Nothing whatsoever appears to have changed. They seem incapable of adapting.

  2. Ah, Phil Coorey, Chris Uhlmann: ‘useful idiots’ for the Liberal party.

    Pre-election, Samantha Maiden likewise repeatedly retailed supposed insider intelligence that private polling had the Liberals tracking much better than the public picture.

    Ms Maiden was mightily miffed to subsequently discover that she had been misled by her trusted party sources. Who woulda thunk it?


  3. If early indications are anything to go by, the tension between the Liberal Party’s determination to tack to the right on cultural issues and electoral imperatives to win the favour of more liberally minded voters could be set to play out again at the Victorian state election in November. Stay tuned.

    I would write “the Liberal Party’s current owners”, look no further than Moira Deeming selected to replace MP Bernie Finn who was kicked out by Guy ( he is trying) and the resulting resignation of Andrew Elsbury.

  4. This is an extremely interesting post by PB, this whole Deves thing was the most intriguing aspect of the election for me. My Intuition suggested to me that they were on the compete wrong track and basing their hopes on some sort of wishdream emanating from the prosperity religious sector. I know that if you are in one of these mega churches it may seem that your beliefs are all powerful but really just a drop in the bucket of opinion when the loud mouthed pastor finishes his sermon. The Libs in many parts of the country seem to be an arm of this movement and for the many who are just in it because they side with capital and feel superior to the hoi polloi this strange faith based stuff must be alien. Hence the teals, mainstream women who can see where all this nonsense is leading. But my final thoughts are that I was mystified by the Deves, it seemed like they were unlocking a door that lead nowhere.

  5. “The possibility that the Liberals were acting on faulty intelligence”

    The liberals were acting and faulty.
    Intelligence seems to have been lacking, the Teals showing their hand quite early.
    The whip cracker and his small band of supporters had the liberal party believing in miracles.
    Crosby Textor, in the end were at the mercy of the miracle man.
    The parasitic old MSM were at the mercy of the miracle man.
    The miracle man was at the mercy of a miracle.

    The miracle was that the liberal party and the other sixty something percent of voters have been spared the triumphant return to Rome/Canberra of the all conquering leader.

    God appeared in a burning bush as “the teals’ !

  6. Excellent post WB!
    The influential libs really thought Deves was a winning strategy. They fell for their own echo chamber. They disrespect all voters. They ignored their own strongholds and went for ‘simpleton’ Labor voters AND they believed that everyone is as besotted with supply side Jesus as they are. I suspect ‘jesus’ would be appalled to learn (if he existed) that he was a gun toting, gay hating, profit loving reactionary. So much for rich men, heaven, camels and the eyes of needles.


  7. Prince Planetsays:
    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:54 am
    This is an extremely interesting post by PB, this whole Deves thing was the most intriguing aspect of the election for me. My Intuition suggested to me that they were on the compete wrong track and basing their hopes on some sort of wishdream emanating from the prosperity religious sector. I know that if you are in one of these mega churches it may seem that your beliefs are all powerful but really just a drop in the bucket of opinion when the loud mouthed pastor finishes his sermon. The Libs in many parts of the country seem to be an arm of this movement and for the many who are just in it because they side with capital and feel superior to the hoi polloi this strange faith based stuff must be alien. Hence the teals, mainstream women who can see where all this nonsense is leading. But my final thoughts are that I was mystified by the Deves, it seemed like they were unlocking a door that lead nowhere.

    I remember Steelydan, Taylormaid and Lars posting that Deves issue is changing the landscape of federal voting and there are good chances Morrison will atleast form a Minority government.

  8. The Deves strategy seems to have been based on little more than the fact that some electorates with larger than average Muslim populations were less than supportive of same sex marriage in 2017. Which may have given some Liberal Party types the idea that issues of gender are a silver bullet for Muslim voters.

    That idea is so obviously based on fallacies that it’s hard to know where to start. First, there’s the ecological fallacy: the 2017 figures by themselves don’t prove that it was the Muslims in those seats who voted No. But the bigger fallacy lies in the assumption that because some people may have voted in accordance with the tenets of their religion when asked a very specific question, that implied that the question was a first-order issue for such voters. If they had been asked a different question – for example, what they thought about the Liberals’ position on the Arab-Israeli conflict, or on locking up (mainly Muslim) asylum seekers from Afghanistan – they would probably have come up with answers which would have made their community look much less like fertile ground for a Liberal candidate,

  9. As in so many things, the Deves gambit was yet another example of the Morrison Reactionaries campaigning against themselves. They have gutted their plurality. Mutinous Once-Were-Liberals have mobilised to create their own new voices and proto-platform. They have had impressive success wherever they have organised. Outside the provinces of the Nationals and their holdings in Queensland, The Lying Reactionaries hold very few seats at all. Having been colonised by the evangelical make-believers, they are going to find they are absolutely irrelevant to most voters.

    The only advantage they have in the Parliament is the certainty that their own numbers will be complemented by those of the Greens, who will try to rescue the Lying Reactionaries from complete oblivion.

  10. Interesting summary and comments by PBers.
    I would add to those pertinent comments, FWIW, my observations.
    Right from the beginning of the last term, the Government and the Liberals swallowed hook, line and sinker, all the glib and bullshit doled out by Morrison and faithfully reinforced and embellished by the Merdeocracy. It focussed on ideology rather than pragmatism, deviating from the years- long, successful practices of the Liberal Party.
    It appealed to the most conservative and reactionary elements of the Right, slowly alienating middle of the road Liberal voters.
    It became increasingly arrogant and unaccountable. It refused to take any responsibility for its failings and mistakes, instead resorting to blame anyone else than itself. It failed, internally, to consider any other course to steer through tough and depressing times. Not only did it refuse to pragmatically analyse the events and its responses, it embarked on systematically attacking States like WA and Victoria where it needed to reinforce those weak State Party units which once reigned supreme. These State units then suffered the mother-of- defeats in May.
    Its selection deals and processes alienated many Liberal supporters. The mess over selections and “Captains calls” in NSW were particularly unedifying and presented an image of a Party in turmoil and a leader who only cared about his image and power.
    It made many, many promises of financial support which never eventuated. It failed to act quickly in times of need and then only responded when things got worse or looked bad for its image.
    It depended on its media support to gloss its image. It failed to recognise that this support was diminished in its effectiveness and many consumers of media had gone elsewhere, particularly to social media.
    It claimed to be acting with a fair-go- for-all, but the reality was that it was acting for one section of Australian society. Robodebt was a millstone around its neck that it consistently ignored. Pork- barrelling, once considered part of politics by a cynical population, became another millstone, much to its surprise.
    But it believed it could get away with more of the same, and lip-service to community concerns could be achieved by promises that could be ignored when it came to election time through the usual monetary bribes and dissembling, along with a barrage of attacks on the Opposition.
    But, ultimately, it failed because it could not and would not see the writing on the wall- its leader was its greatest millstone, and it had failed to produce an alternative leader to take to an election. This has continuing problems for it now that its in Opposition.
    I believe that ultimately also, a majority of voters believed that this government was basically unfair.
    Sure, there was an element of ” time for a change” amongst voters, but also that sense of unfairness, a sense of deep dissatisfaction with cynical,divisive politics, ideology over practical government action and a failure to complete its basic responsibilities as a Government.
    Now, as an Opposition, it faces deep – seated questions about its very existence into the near future. Can it conduct enough soul- searching to admit its systemic failings and learn from them. Or will it carry-on with the more of the same, believing deep- down in its own “droit du Seigneur” and ” Dieu et Mon Droit”- that the election result was an abberation; that voters will come to their senses; that the loss was not the message but the delivery that failed.
    Will it grudgingly admit that it needs to become a more contemporary Party in a nation which is changing in so many ways and faces so many challenges. Or will it go further to the Right, believing obstinately that it’s politics are the only way to deal with a changing world.
    Indications so far are that the latter will remain the preferred course.

  11. Too right Ven, I never bought this line. My gut feeling was that it was that the strategy had come from some sort of magical Thinking. The place we all like to believe exists but rational grounded people know most likely doesn’t. This sort of thinking keeps us going and can sometime co exist with reality if only by coincidence ( as in Scomoes miracle result against Shorten). But if you invest too much into it,it can lead you down the garden path and into some weird areas like thinking some bigoted woman who wouldn’t even front the media was going to be your saviour. It reminds me of the secret of the ruby glass movie.

  12. It’s interesting to list some of the seats which the Liberals now no longer hold: North Sydney, Warringah, Wentworth, Bennelong, Kooyong, Higgins, Mayo, Bruce. All seats held by former conservative leaders. The first six held by former PMs.

  13. “…the Liberal Party’s determination to tack to the right on cultural issues”. Of course, being right-wing on cultural issues is the very opposite of being liberal. They do believe in one freedom – the freedom for business bosses to do whatever they like to their workers and customers, but that’s hardly what most people outside of themselves and their diehard supporters would think is the core belief of a “liberal” party. It’s really time they gave up that name.

  14. The internal polling and how it was used describes a story of a party divided. Not quite the fireworks of the Rudd-Gillard years, but divided none the less. The broad church is rent asunder. Following WB’s concluding remarks, we are already starting to see how this is playing out in Victoria. What will happen in NSW?

  15. Well the Deves issue really did TRANSmogrify the election for the Libs. Crosby-Textor weren’t much help and nor was Lib internal polling, what a disaster at all levels.

  16. “The parasitic old MSM were at the mercy of the miracle man.” and boy didn’t they keep force feeding us all with that pathetic narrative day in day out, the filth. So much so, that every minor stumble by Albo was seen as a disaster, whereas we all didn’t give a stuff.

  17. This all just makes me wonder what the Liberal party is doing right now to redress the problems it created itself – the grab-bag of Morrison election tactics. Or is it just blaming everything on the electorate’s hatred of Morrison as a person.

    It’s difficult to see any evidence of introspection. Just look at the NSW Lib’s Barilaro-centric deathwatch campaign and the constant Dutton-Taylor-Ley media piffle.

  18. Griff: “Not quite the fireworks of the Rudd-Gillard years …”

    I don’t recall Labor factions mounting court cases over preselection battles (but maybe my memory is fallible).

  19. Ven @ #10 Saturday, July 30th, 2022 – 12:14 am


    Prince Planetsays:
    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:54 am
    This is an extremely interesting post by PB, this whole Deves thing was the most intriguing aspect of the election for me. My Intuition suggested to me that they were on the compete wrong track and basing their hopes on some sort of wishdream emanating from the prosperity religious sector. I know that if you are in one of these mega churches it may seem that your beliefs are all powerful but really just a drop in the bucket of opinion when the loud mouthed pastor finishes his sermon. The Libs in many parts of the country seem to be an arm of this movement and for the many who are just in it because they side with capital and feel superior to the hoi polloi this strange faith based stuff must be alien. Hence the teals, mainstream women who can see where all this nonsense is leading. But my final thoughts are that I was mystified by the Deves, it seemed like they were unlocking a door that lead nowhere.

    I remember Steelydan, Taylormaid and Lars posting that Deves issue is changing the landscape of federal voting and there are good chances Morrison will atleast form a Minority government.

    Ven, how could you have forgotten the fevered musings of Freya ‘Deves Masterstroke’ Stark 🙂

  20. If I were a liberal party member I would be very upset about the federal intervention in the preselections.. protected the hated Alex Hawke and Susan Lee.Of the.others Hughes was the only liberal win. In areas like Blaxland. Watson and McMahon the Deeves candidacy did not yield seats because economic issues are much more important than social issues

  21. Oliver Sutton @ Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:32 pm
    “Griff: “Not quite the fireworks of the Rudd-Gillard years …”

    I don’t recall Labor factions mounting court cases over preselection battles (but maybe my memory is fallible).”

    Touché! Would “trench warfare” be a more suitable descriptor? 🙂

  22. As for the allure of bigotry, I freely admit that I was concerned that it would work to a greater extent in Parramatta (my seat). I did not appreciate how powerful the time factor was.

  23. Cultural war Issues like the ones pushed by Deves only carry weight when there’s a ALP government seen as not doing enough about the bread and butter issues.

  24. The Teals are an extremely important problem for the Liberals, and they are just getting started!…. But the Teals are not the only problem that the Liberals are facing. My guess is that Scomo is currently organising a Christian-Trumpist Phalanx to take over the Liberal party from Dutton and his Queenslanders or, in the process, threaten the Liberals with a split.

    Whatever it’s going on, it’s likely to be very good news for Albo and the ALP….

  25. The Age has a story today with some Redbridge polling of 5 Victorian seats that ask how people would vote if there was a theoretical independent.

    The article is poorly written and doesn’t interpret the results well, because in almost every seat the independent comes third and the article says it would translate to an independent 2PP win.

    That clearly makes the assumption that Greens preferences will flow more to the independent than Labor, that may have been the case in May when it came down to 60% vs 43% national emissions targets but there’s no reason Greens voters would preference a centrist independent over a progressive Labor government in the state election.

    What it showed though was a Liberal pimary vote around 37% in most of the seats and as low as 31% in Sandringham.

    Notably, the Goldtsein “voices of” group have ruled out supporting candidates in Brighton, Sandringham and Caulfield anyway so it’s probably all meaningless.

    I think the same dynamic as the federal election will definitely play out in November. I don’t think the Libs can simultaneously chase big swings in the outer suburbs while holding their inner city seats so they will have the same dilemma.

  26. “Griff says:
    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:11 am
    The internal polling and how it was used describes a story of a party divided. Not quite the fireworks of the Rudd-Gillard years”…. Those “fireworks” were mainly in and orchestrated by the media…. On the other hand, when the Coalition is falling apart and engaged in a siblicidal civil war, the media always remain silent, looking over there and pointing to Albo’s “memory lapses” instead, and all that irrelevant crap…. But this time around it didn’t work!…. Why?…. Because not enough voters remained Moronised…. Voter De-Moronisation works!

  27. “Trent says:
    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:28 pm”

    I bet that State Teals are coming at the Vic state election…. That will be enough to cook the poor lobsterwiththemobster.

  28. The “Voices of Kooyong” group are already looking for independents in Kew and Hawthorn, and I assume they’ll also target Bulleen too.

    It’s just Caulfield, Brighton and Sandringham where at the moment the groups involved with the federal campaign appear to be steering clear, which I think is partly because Labor themselves are only within 0.1 – 0.6% of all three.

    Malvern would probably be the most suitable seat for a teal independent I think. Margin over 6% puts it out of reach for Labor meaning Labor & Greens voters will have more incentive to strategically vote teal there, which isn’t really the case in seats where the margin is 0.6% or less.

    Teals targeting Kew, Malvern and Bulleen on top of Labor within 0.6% of Brighton, Sandringham and Caulfield, while the Liberals are trying to target outer suburban Labor seats as gains, would certainly create the same internal conflicts for the Libs as they had at the federal election.

  29. The competing Liberal internal polling in NSW was a reflection of the deep schism in the party.

    In short, the détente and spoil sharing between the Right and the Moderates was upended by the Morrison Club cult of personality. That’s the personality cult you have when ‘hold my beer’ is the motto.

    The polls were being interpreted, and leaked, to fit one cause or another. And a unified party may have picked up the huge Teal wave, and the huge drop in the Chinese heritage vote. And done something about it. Rather than fart arsing around in MacArthur and Werriwa trying to peel off the UAP and PHoN voters.

    The heartland demographics were abandoned for some fantasy, a flawed fantasy covering up dysfunctional party at war with itself.

  30. Sprocket.. I doubt the liberals would have been able to mitigate their problems if they were aware. Also Morrison did not campaign in any of the teal seats.. he was not wanted there. This may explain why he ended up in safe alp held seats..

  31. I learnt to ignore whatever the Liberals say about their internal polling when they were saying Dan Andrews himself was in trouble in Mulgrave in 2018.

  32. The Trans issue in women’s sport might have resonated with many but it was probably very low on the vast majority of people’s priority lists. Firstly, they have to care about sport which many people don’t care about. Then they have to care about women’s sport, which is even less people. And even then for it to change the way a voter votes it had to rank higher than every other issue including trust in government, climate change, handling of Covid etc. Culture war issues are not very high on the priority of many people.

  33. I doubt the “Teals” will have as much of an impact at the Victorian State election because there is not the momentum or the need. Nor is there going to be the same level of support on the ground or the money, many of whom will instead be campaigning for Green or Labor candidates instead.
    The Liberals got an absolute shellacking last time and don’t look like making a miraculous comeback, even if Dan’s crew is appearing to be a little bit tired.

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