12:15am Friday: Sunak wins round 2 with 101 votes (28% of total), Mordaunt second with 83 (23%), Truss 64 (18%), Badenoch 49 (14%), Tugendhat 32 (9%) and Braverman 27 (8%). Braverman is eliminated. A YouGov poll of Conservative members has Mordaunt thumping both Sunak and Truss head to head, with Truss thumping Sunak. On this round, Braverman and Tugendhat lost votes from round 1 even though candidates dropped out. The next round is Monday.
8:15pm Guardian live blog says today’s vote will be announced at 3pm UK time (midnight AEST). So two hours earlier than yesterday.
6:17am Thursday: Round 1 result: Sunak 88 votes, 25% of total, Mordaunt 67, 19%, Truss 50, 14%, Badenoch 40, 11%, Tugendhat 37, 10%, Braverman 32, 9%, Zahawi 25, 7% and Hunt 18, 5%. Hunt and Zahawi are eliminated for failing to get the 30 votes required to advance.
One of the six remaining candidates will be eliminated each round until there are two left, who will go to the membership. While Sunak won this round, he is not safe as his support is well below the 33.3% required to assure advancement to the membership vote. I think the question is whether Truss can overtake Mordaunt once other right-wingers are eliminated. There will be a second round today.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
To elect a new leader, Conservative MPs vote in rounds with the lowest polling candidate eliminated each round, until there are just two left. Those final two go to the Conservative membership, which votes by mail. Candidates required at least 20 MP supporters to nominate. Eight candidates have cleared this threshold.
Results for today’s first round are expected at 2am AEST. The lowest polling candidate and any others who fail to reach 30 votes are eliminated. There are 358 Conservative MPs in the House of Commons. A second round of voting is likely Thursday, then a third round next Monday. The final two will be known by July 21, and the winner of the membership vote will be announced on September 5.
To be certain to make the final round, a candidate needs one-third of the MPs’ vote. The membership is more right-wing than MPs, so if a right-wing candidate makes the final two, that candidate could win.
At the moment, this appears to be a contest between former Chancellor Rishi Sunak and everyone else. Sunak is sticking to fiscal rectitude in not offering a tax cut until inflation of 9.1% is under control, while other candidates want a tax cut NOW! Sunak is likely to make one of the final two spots, and I don’t know who will win the other spot.
There was good news for Labour leader Keir Starmer, as he and his deputy, Angela Rayner, were recently cleared by Durham police over allegations they breached lockdown rules while campaigning last year. Starmer had pledged to resign if fined.
Boris Johnson resigned as Conservative leader on July 7, but remains caretaker PM until a new leader is elected. If he was holding back the Conservative vote, I would have expected a polling rebound for the Conservatives once he was ousted, but the opposite has happened, with Labour getting double digit leads in most polls taken since Johnson’s ousting. Perhaps Johnson was holding up the Conservatives with non-university educated whites outside the big cities.
US Supreme Court decisions
I wrote for The Conversation on July 5 about the recent history of appointments to the US Supreme Court that has created the current 6-3 right split. While the Supreme Court is historically unpopular, so is President Joe Biden, and so the Democrats are still likely to be thumped at the early November US midterm elections.
Furthermore, having two senators per state makes the US Senate heavily malapportioned, with a large bias towards rural and small town voters, which have been trending towards Republicans at recent elections. This bias could give Republicans a lock on the Senate.
Japanese upper house elections
Elections for half of the Japanese upper house were held on Sunday. The ruling conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 63 of the 125 seats up for election (up six) and its Komeito allies 13 (down one). The LDP holds 119 of the 248 total seats and Komeito 27 for a comfortable overall majority. Japan has separate upper and lower house elections. These elections were marred by the assassination of former LDP PM Shinzo Abe on Friday.
US Supreme Court decisions
I wrote for The Conversation on July 5 about the recent history of appointments to the US Supreme Court that has created the current 6-3 right split. While the Supreme Court is historically unpopular, so is President Joe Biden, and so the Democrats are still likely to be thumped at the early November US midterm elections.
Furthermore, having two senators per state makes the US Senate heavily malapportioned, with a large bias towards rural and small town voters, which have been trending towards Republicans at recent elections. This bias could give Republicans a lock on the Senate.
This is a very off-kilter analysis that I don’t agree with at all.
We’ll see what happens at these midterm elections. In 2024, Dems are defending 23 Senate seats and Repubs just 10.
The US malapportionment and rampant gerrymandering is nigh on criminal. They are destined for massive political upheaval unless they do something drastic. They need a federal electoral commission. We are all at risk if the US falls.
Th ams for the post Adam.
Issues like Roe v. Wade will probably soften GOP support a little and some bad candidates (e.g. Oz in PA) will probably give Democrats a few free wins where they might not have otherwise, and certainly many Republicans’ insistence on leaning into irrelevant Right Wing identity politics/culture war issues are an unnecessary and self-destructive distraction.
But that said, midterms are typically bad for the party in the White House. There is real upset over the rise in the cost of living due to inflation pressures (the real issue) and the fact that the Biden Administration is seen as somewhat inactive and impotent, despite the Democratic Party having a majority in both houses (you can cry about Manchin and Sinema all you want, to the barely engaged, it just looks like weak excuse-making.)
I cannot see the midterms being pretty for the Democratic Party. I think the blow might be softened a little by the issues I raised in the first paragraph but I definitely think a swing against the Democrats is on the cards and, considering that a net loss of just one Senate seat to the Republicans and just a couple in the House would be enough to flip those respective chambers. And I am not just reading tea leaves; Biden’s polling is in the toilet right now and the generic Democratic numbers aren’t that great either. Obviously, we’ll have to wait and see but I don’t see any real (non-wishcasting/feelpinion) reason to think it will turn out different at this point.
That said, I will remind commentators that bad midterms for the party in the White House is par the course and caution that a bad midterm result doesn’t necessarily mean this is a one-term presidency in the making. 1982 was bad for Reagan, and both 1994 and 2010 were especially bad for Clinton and Obama respectively.
As for the UK Conservative situation: what an absolute mess. I think Sunak will win the support of MPs easily (and easily make it to the final round) but, unless he’s facing off against a liberal like Hunt, I think he loses to whoever his opponent is.
Considering the disfunction on display here, the kindest thing the new PM could do is take the country to another election as soon as feasible but because that is not due until the end of 2024 and the economy is not exactly in a state that favours incumbents right now, I suspect the next PM will wait as long as they need to in order to try and establish themselves in the role (or desperately cling on as long as possible, depending on whether or not they can turn public support around.)
Wat Tyler @6.46
Agree with pretty much all of that. I do think the Democrats may hold onto a bare majority in the Senate – in part because the GOP has nominated some truly awful candidates in the swing seats – but the House is surely gone in November.
I have been looking at the candidates for the UK tory party leadership and it is hard to pick a candidate who has likeable characteristics. Sunak is favourite because he has some form of a personality. But he is a multi-millionaire who hasn’t paid any tax with a billionaire wife who is in that crazy British category of a non-domiciled resident (which is greatest tax rout of them all).
Hunt has the advantage of saying no to Boris earliest but that doesn’t seem to help him. But then Nadhim Zahawi did himself no real favours by taking the chancellorship during the crisis.
Tom Tugenhat has the advantage and disadvantage of being unknown. It is an advantage to have avoided the whole Boris era but then again nobody knows him.
Then the ladies in the running; Truss is denser than lead and Suella Braverman is also thick as brick. Kemi Badenoch is a bigot which surprising as she is black. I actually think Penny Mordaunt is the best of a bad lot.
Anyway, who will still be in the rest by the end of today? I dare say some of them will not get to the 30 MP mark at the first vote.
Braverman I think will probably be one of them that struggles.
B.S. Fairman at 8.14 pm
Look at the photos at this BBC story: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-62144973
Mordaunt [she couldn’t choose her name, but she hasn’t tried to hide from it] is the only one of the eight with a determined, no-nonsense look. She is a PR fluffy type of person, probably with friends at the BBC.
She lists astronomy and painting as hobbies. The Ukrainians will want her to win, and she probably will.
Another thing that people are saying is this might lead to the first person of colour to be Prime Minister. But the PM between 1812 and 1826, Robert Jenkinson, Lord Liverpool might have been a sixteenth Indian. His mother was born in India to woman of Portuguese Indian heritage.
B.S. Fairman at 8.16 pm
In the Tories these days it’s all about looks, timing, PR and sheer fluffiness. Wins the day all day.
Here’s the latest gossip as reported in The Times:
“A new poll has delivered a blow for Rishi Sunak as it shows Penny Mordaunt has a commanding lead over other candidates vying to be Britain’s next prime minister.
Sunak would lose to almost every rival in a head-to-head run-off, the YouGov survey of more than 800 party members found.
The poll found that there were only two candidates Sunak would beat in a two-way contest: Jeremy Hunt, the former foreign secretary, and Suella Braverman, the attorney general.
The poll gives a huge boost for Mordaunt, the former defence secretary who launched her campaign today. She would beat every other candidate in the race by a wide margin.
She tops the membership poll with 27 per cent support.” Ms 27% looks like a shoe-in, PR sources say.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-leadership-race-candidates-prime-minister-latest-tcx239sq0
Mordaunt has the momentum.
She has a very simple message that even the Tory rank and file can comprehend:
PM4PM [PM= Penny Mordaunt]
That’s how personalised UK politics has become.
The bottom three of the 6 will all fade, with their votes being spread among the top 3.
Truss the lead-balloon does not look likely to bridge the gap to Mordaunt. Tony Abbott may come out against Mordaunt because she’s not a macho man’s type of woman (Deves and all that, from Aussie farce to UK fiasco) but from here Mordaunt has a better chance of winning than Abbott had in the Libs in late 2009. She would have to be smarter than Abbott too, for all her fluffy appeal.
“… so if a right-wing candidate makes the final two, that candidate could win.”
They’re all right-wing, aren’t they?
The question is how far towards the extreme of the spectrum.
What I find so interesting about the Conservative leadership contest is that contenders who have been in the thick of things with Boris Johnson can be taken seriously.
Is it truly the case that someone with a slick campaign, like Rish! Sunak, can prevail? It seems like it, when, if I were a Conservative MP I would be hoping to choose a new leader who was the most distant planet that revolved around Boris. Like Tom Tugenhadt, for example.
I also wonder whether the British voting public are getting to feel about the revolving door of leadership the way we in Australia ended up feeling about it? That is, disgruntled that our right to choose the country’s leader seems to be continually taken away from us?
Adrian Beaumont
I am bit surprised that Hunt lost in the first round and that too with even less than 20 votes, which was requirement to qualify for first round. That means atleast 2 people who said they will vote for him in qualification round did not vote for him in first round. Can you tell why Hunt failed so miserably?
Ven at 8.51 am
Hunt himself said it clearly. It was because he got to the last round in a 2019 so he is a rank no-hoper now. Logic must be that Tory membership do not like admitting that they made a mistake. Boris was a winning clown to fool the electorate with but obviously much much worse than Hunt could ever have been as PM. So the membership want to move on from their mistake.
The other reason is that Hunt has little integrity but he might have a faint idea of what the word means. Those further to his right have no bloody idea.
Some of Hunt’s votes will go to Sunak but if fluffy Mordaunt gets to the last two she will give him a right royal trouncing.
There are holes in Mordaunt’s back story. She claims to be a captain in the RN, when in fact it is only honorary rank, granted to her when she was briefly Secretary for Defence. The highest rank she has ever held in the navy reserve has been acting sub Lieutenant.
clem attlee at 9.21 am
For the Tories it’s not the substance that counts it’s the image. Mordaunt’s story is considerably better for the Tory membership than moneybags Rishi Sunak or Truss. Unless she is a hopeless campaigner, which doesn’t matter for the Tory vote but would at an election, the media will promote her like cream. In other words Mordaunt has a dream run at present, and should could puncture Labour complacency.
Mordaunt does have the advantage that she was dropped by Boris when he became PM and then only got a junior ministry later on. This means she has not been at the coal face during the BoJo years.
If Mordaunt does win, she will be the first unmarried woman in the role. There were of course unmarried men before (BoJo was unmarried at the start of his reign too) but the British press will have a field day with that (as she is woman and it is novel like the press did with Gillard here).
As an aside, the first British transgender MP, Jamie Wallis, (who is a conservative too) was convicted of failing to stop at an accident in court yesterday.
”
B.S. Fairmansays:
Thursday, July 14, 2022 at 10:48 am
Mordaunt does have the advantage that she was dropped by Boris when he became PM and then only got a junior ministry later on. This means she has not been at the coal face during the BoJo years.
If Mordaunt does win, she will be the first unmarried woman in the role. There were of course unmarried men before (BoJo was unmarried at the start of his reign too) but the British press will have a field day with that (as she is woman and it is novel like the press did with Gillard here).
As an aside, the first British transgender MP, Jamie Wallis, (who is a conservative too) was convicted of failing to stop at an accident in court yesterday.
”
Oh no a law breaking Transgender Tory MP!
Does he have to resign as MP because he is convicted?
No, he doesn’t have to resign and the Conservative party has said that it will take no further action. He just copped a 2500 pound dollar fine and lose of licence. There is no rule in the UK requiring resignation if convicted (it is just something the majority of MPs do but they have had MPs who ended up serving from gaol in the past). He fled the scene because he was dressed in a black leather mini-skirt and heels at the time and had yet to come out.
Actually, Jamie Wallis statement when he came out earlier this year was “I’m trans. Or to be more accurate, I want to be”. He was being blackmailed (the blackmailer was sent to gaol) and he went on the front foot by outing himself.
But he has yet to change his pronouns; the Tories are a board church but not that board.
Ven
Hunt actually lost 3 votes as you couldn’t sign your own nomination papers.
So he should have had 21 votes – his plus the 20 signatories.
Shame he’s out. He might be right wing but he’s not a loony like the rest of them.
And former equalities minister Badenoch – who really doesn’t believe in equality – held her campaign event in a venue that has 2 gender neutral toilets. One of her supporters stuck a hand written male and female sign on each of them instead.
B.S. Fairman at 10.48 am
There’s another set of BBC mugshots at: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-62158367
Mordaunt is the only one shown speaking. The others are smiling (3 other females) or just look dumb.
Mordaunt has support in the PR department. She launched her campaign in the Cinnamon Club, with an old-style, colonial-looking map featuring Sri Lanka in the background.
Here’s an objective assessment from John Crace, who say of Mordaunt, “if she makes it to the last three, Mordaunt could be a shoo-in”:
“Truth is, she’s a wee bit dull. Just like her book, Greater: Britain After the Storm, which deservedly went unnoticed by everyone. It’s doubtful even Penny got round to reading it. There may be less to her than meets the eye.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/13/penny-mordaunt-leadership-launch-john-crace-politics-sketch
Perhaps its just my tory phobic jaundice … but … there seems to be more than a touch of Hyacinth about Penny Mordaunt. I guess some soufflés never rise even once.
In the open thread, somebody made reference to a poll which demonstrated a low recognition factor for Penny Mordaunt and made the point that this was a disadvantage to her. I reckon it’s an advantage..
I can’t see how Penny Mordaunt’s seemingly singular policy of cutting taxes, with all that that means, will appeal to the community at the general election. It may appeal to Conservative MPs but at a general election people know that it’s a recipe for cuts to services.
This is a story about the latest New York Times/Siena poll wrt Biden and the Democrats:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/11/us/politics/biden-approval-polling-2024.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuomT1JKd6J17Vw1cRCfTTMQmqxCdw_PIxftm3iWka3DKDm8biPkORJCH_0bRZKF4INEy0zmdAdZZKKUoWvV2i_dYO0hsTQbt-MPexNIFPyAx48qVb18B4qjsD_o-4CO4KS6wMvt-z7my-BvWPDLgXqKOzSIjcQx6pcZuJkX5iSRb2viVQLFxjoJ7iPcgVYtoBmtVPFn8tPfqCRR0Md-Mf0ucvlFwA7cFLGmVyd2M6LsAcxFQD0bFSR584GU669BcO7AHLfq1bk5gKIel3-JnWiE_J5ypBpYxW4Hei71r1LbPohGMw8G2rO4kgvc_1ylPO1m-54OEgX9cYQ&smid=url-share
I’ve unlocked it so you can read it for free.
This also is Bill Kristol and Charlie Sykes discussing polling and other things:
https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/bill-kristol-this-is-why-we-were-never-trump-2/
Likely midterms based on current info democrats likely to lose house of reps by 20 to 25 seats. Senate different democrats could retain best possible 51 seats. The Dobbs decision will moderate the swing against the democrats. 2024 if the democrats win the presidency then probable trifecta again
Re clem atlee at 8.32 pm
It was Holdenhillbilly. Agree with your comment, spot on. Mordaunt is a bit boring, as Crace remarks. But in the current context of the slow, tedious exit of a bloody selfish joker as PM, even that’s a plus.
All that counts now is recognition amongst the Tory membership. In that arena Mordaunt is streets ahead by all accounts. Even the bookies have her now as the clear favourite. For the demographic see:
https://www.joe.co.uk/politics/this-is-how-we-ended-up-with-johnson-tory-member-demographics-revealed-ahead-of-key-ballot-347437
Why will Mordaunt beat Truss in the next few rounds? Because she’s smarter, has stronger support and will point out ad nauseum that she voted Leave whereas Truss voted Remain. So it is highly likely that Mordaunt gets into the final two for the largely over 50 rich white Tory men to choose from.
In that eventuality Rishi Sunak can pretend that he’s ready for all money but he is sure to lose, as sure as Hunt was to lose to Johnson. So Sunak will have a choice: keep going for the full membership count which ensures that Boris the Narcissist remains PM for another 6 weeks or so, or accept he won’t win.
For the arguments being made in support of Mordaunt, particularly by relatively new MPs, see:
https://www.ft.com/content/b585062a-b8fe-4e08-91cb-4dfb20f07f04 (silly survey to get access)
Key quotes: ‘Much of Mordaunt’s support comes from the 2019 intake of MPs, who see Johnson’s departure as a chance to make a break from the past. “She would be a fresh start,” said Duncan Baker, a backbencher. “She is very strong, has impeccable integrity and values.”’
‘James Sunderland, also elected for the first time in 2019, said: “She is no-nonsense, she has no baggage, she’s full of integrity and has a vision for the future. She’s the candidate that Labour and the SNP would want to face least.”’
David Davis, former Brexit Secretary, backs Mordaunt strongly for similar reasons, adding a touch of hyperbole by saying she has a vision for Britain, based on the fluffy co-authored book Crace ridiculed.
While there have been attacks on Mordaunt they don’t seem to have worked. She’s a PR type, after all.
Of all the candidates Mordaunt looks closest to the US, given her experience. She will use that as well.
You Gov poll at:
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/13/penny-mordaunt-clear-favourite-next-conservative-l
All the candidates are talking about tax cuts but then again so was BoJo in his dying hours. Except for the ones who don’t tax as they have set up tax schemes that stop them paying what the plebs have to do.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/13/penny-mordaunt-leadership-launch-john-crace-politics-sketch
Cat at 10.16 pm
One close observer predicts Mordaunt will just beat Sunak once the others have been eliminated. That’s among Tory MPs. But the YouGov poll suggests an easy victory for Mordaunt among Tory membership.
For this prediction about the MP voting rounds see:
https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1547339908720852998
Second round even better for Mordaunt than predicted
That Patrick chap at link above guessed Mordaunt would get 78 in second round but she got 83. Unless she makes a big whopper in TV debates, Mordaunt looks home and hosed. Her bath size may be large.
On incidentals she is the one with the closest hairdo to the slowly exiting clown, but in her case it is combed.
PM4PM, best of a bad lot it seems, Dr D. 😐
You’ve got to think she’s winning because she looks Prime Ministerial. Dare I say, a 21st century Thatcher? And Conservatives love a blonde woman. It’s almost as ubiquitous now as the pearls. Though I note she isn’t wearing any. 😯
Rish! will extract his price, probably back to the Exchequer.
As someone who is no fan of the Conservatives, my primary interest in this contest is seeing someone elected who is most likely to undo the Northern Ireland protocol. For that reason, I am very much in the anyone but Sunak camp, as my understanding is that he did not want to make any changes to it. My preference is for Liz Truss, but I can certainly live with Mordaunt, who has also given strong indications that she will see through its undoing. I would be surprised, at this stage, if this ends up going all the way to the membership. It seems that Sunak’s chances with the Conservative Party membership are slim to none, so I think there will be mounting pressure on him not to drag the process out, which of course leaves Johnson as Prime Minister. So my thoughts are that the most likely outcome is that a deal is done and Mordaunt becomes PM, especially as it also appears that Mordaunt would comfortably beat Truss in a member vote.
Andrew Earlwood at 8.24 pm
Yes, Mordaunt wears the hyacinth colour, though usually without the pretty white frills. Colour at:
https://www.easytogrowbulbs.com/collections/grape-hyacinths/products/grape-hyacinth-touch-of-snow?variant=42557056140
So far attacks on Mordaunt from rivals are as inaccurate and far from as deadly as Putin missiles. See:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/14/rival-camps-uk-tory-leadership-race-aim-fire-penny-mordaunt
Here is Mordaunt at her launch wearing the hyacinth blue blouse:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-tory-leadership-candidate-27477351
The serious bit in the story is the pundit Patrick Flynn predicting she will just beat Sunak in MP vote. But she’s the winner amongst the largely over 55 white men who are most of Tory members; they like this hyacincth type, oblivious to the fact that, as John Crace put it, there is “less to her than meets the eye”.
I think Truss still has a good chance of making the final two. Braverman, who was eliminated last night, has endorsed Truss, and Truss should also gain when Badenoch is eliminated. Tugendhat voters likely to split between Sunak and Mordaunt.
Latest is that 60-member right-wing European Research Group have been told to vote for Truss.
Re Adrian at 11.38 am
Well that would be an interesting outcome for Labour, for whom Mordaunt is clearly the main threat as she would be backed by the corporate media in a full-on PR narrative about the reset of UK politics etc.
It’s a secret ballot and with the numbers involved it might be hard for even cynical journalists to work out who voted for whom. Mordaunt is clearly the popular one among the mostly male Tory members (and her views on women are not nearly as reactionary as Tony Abbott’s, i.e. standard Tory right etc).
In other words the voting system is not a rort, like the Senate voting before Turnbull and the Greens got rid of the old group ticket Drury system. It is certainly ironic that ERG members have been told to vote for Truss when Truss voted Remain in 2016 and Mordaunt voted Leave. Remember those Tory members are still very gung-ho about the resurgence of Little England as a Great Power post-Brexit.
Votes have already started to shift as shown by some of the minnows getting less in round 2 than in 1. There is some fluidity but this surely favours Mordaunt as the candidate with momentum and appeal.
There is no Australian analogy. If the ALP members had decided the Labor leader in 2016, Australia might have been saved a full term of ProMo Morrison’s madness, especially significant during the first phase of the pandemic. In terms of fluidity there may be a comparison with the Dec 2003 vote that Latham won against Beazley, with some MPs so confused that they made their fateful decision in the shower.
While the Tory membership is far from representative demographically of the UK electorate, there is some sense in having the membership decide. The arrogance, Edmund-Burke-style, of MPs thinking they know best compared to party members about electoral appeal, is something Labor could review.
Have the Tories considered that they may achieve the same end goal a lot quicker with a single, preferential ticket?
Daniel at 1.56 pm
No, heaven forbid, they could not contemplate using an Australian system, particularly since 68% of the UK electorate who bothered to vote in a referendum on 5 May 2011 rejected that superior system as being unsuitable for the purposes of Rule Britannia.
The upside to the current system is a lot of drama and puffery for those who like their politics that way. Britons should be used to that after the last 3 years. The downside is being seen internationally as a laughing stock. They should be used to that as well, after three years of a bumptious clown as PM.
Anyway, I presume you are talking only of the preliminary stages, i.e. weeding out the also-rans to get to the final two. When there are only two candidates you don’t need a superior electoral system.
P.S. Another, obvious point is that the Tories are fighting over their objectives, and who chooses them.
I think Labour probably fear Mordaunt more than Truss and Sunak. Truss is not the sharpest tool in the garden shed and seems very much out of her depth already.
Sunak is easily portrayed as an out of touch tax cheat AKA a toff (and a brown toff to boot… never underestimate racism as a force in the UK) plus the video of him in 2001 saying he doesn’t have any working class friends is a classic.
I doubt that too many more MPs think they can win an election purely on fighting “woke” that the leadership of Kemi Badenoch would bring. And Tom Tugendhat is going backwards and will probably back out before the next vote and throw his lot in with who he thinks can win.
As for how the MPs vote, never underestimate personal dislikes and self interest. MPs generally like to be re-elected even if that means been lead by someone who’s ideology is not perfectly align with their own.
The membership of the Conservative party is interesting.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/07/conservative-party-membership
B.S. Fairman at 3.12 pm
Yes, this quote from that article says it all: ‘Above all, the quality Conservative members prioritise in their party leader is “being in touch with ordinary people”: it is ranked first by a majority of those surveyed in 2017 for the Party Members Project. This was followed by “being able to unite the nation as prime minister” and “strength and authority”.’
Sunak is hopeless in that regard, as the Tory membership polls show. Truss doesn’t seem in touch at all.
For those wanting drama, the main act (Mordaunt becoming the front-runner) has already occurred.
Since the Tory drama show could become quite boring, speaking of tools here is some light relief:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLcc8aj5ajI
Spooky Mens Chorale (WA branch) ‘Don’t Stand Between a Man and His Tool’ (Inchyra Perth 2015)
Camerawork not the best, but it’s the lyrics and performance that count.
Earlier (2009) black and white version at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4EfiJYrvT0
What passes for analysis by Heather Stewart in Guardian says Mordaunt looks increasingly like a winner:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/14/penny-mordaunt-bid-for-tory-leadership-looks-increasingly-credible
Yes Truss out of depth badly. Further attacks on Mordaunt (reported in Times + BBC) look desperate:
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-62173191
See photo there. Truss is so thick she is even wearing a red dress. It’s all about image for Tory faithful.
Certainly an interesting move by the ERG to back Truss, who was originally a remainer. I had heard rubmlings that this may happen, but as Adrian Beaumont mentioned, is now confirmed. I have seen hard Brexiteers claiming that she is the only person who can “save Brexit”, and she has certainly taken a hard line on undoing the Northern Ireland protocol. Another thing hard line Brexiteers are now pushing is to remove the UK from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights.
Matt31 at 5.31 pm
The Brexiteers are a very ignorant lot if they think a) Truss can save them from reality; and b) English judges won’t refer to ECHR jurisprudence in relevant cases if that removal occurs (Scottish judges certainly would). Domestically, what is interesting is that no Tory contenders have even a faint hope of arguing the case well against Scottish Independence in October 2023. This is after all one of the key impending events the next UK PM will have to face. Tugendhat will likely be removed by the Monday ballot. The other 4 are all essentially English in various differently deficient ways. While three women will most probably remain after Monday’s vote, none of them is even remotely a match for Sturgeon.
Maybe the Tories have thought this through and think they have more chance of holding on to power in Westminster with Scotland independent. But that seems unlikely as they seem to lack all foresight.
One point might be noted in comparison to the LNP in Australia. None of the 4 Tory contenders who will be standing after Monday’s vote is remotely as bad as ProMo Morrison, not even Truss. The proof of that is in the Teal victories. The Tories will lose seats to Lib Dems but not core seats like Kooyong.
With that point we are back to the UK electorate’s historic affirmation of a primitive electoral system. That system may avert disaster arising from the worst excesses of a rank incompetent like ProMo.
Lest anybody forget how utterly dodgy ProMo was, just listen to Penny Wong on 5 Aug 2021:
https://twitter.com/SenatorWong/status/1423157464799662080
BBC update, ‘Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt in bitter battle to stay in Tory leadership race’, at:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-62172049
One of the chief head-kickers for Truss, Iain Duncan Smith, has almost admitted defeat by saying this:
“What we’re actually electing is not, in a way, a popularity contest.”
Even Putin knows politics is about popularity. Of course he fakes it. Duncan Smith is a hopeless shot.
B.S. Fairman at 3.12 pm
Truss, the blunt tool, blunts her chances a bit further in the Q & A on Friday afternoon by saying that “we need to put more sanctions on Ukraine” – presumably she means Russia (from Guardian live blog).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/15/tory-leadership-race-penny-mordaunt-liz-truss-rishi-sunak-debates-uk-politics-latest (22.50 AEST).
Adrian at 11.38 am Fri
Here is someone claiming Truss isn’t out of the running yet, just because she’s a RW self-promoter:
https://theconversation.com/conservative-leadership-election-why-a-run-off-between-penny-mordaunt-and-rishi-sunak-is-unlikely-187082
Note that the Deves meme gets a prominent mention in the rather dubious attacks on Mordaunt.
Truss is still running flat and desperate according to the commentary by a Guardian journalist. See:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/15/liz-truss-bids-save-tory-leadership-campaign-tax-cut-pledges
Comments reported there in TV debate by Mordaunt:
“We need to win at the next general election, and what all the polling shows is that you can only win with me,” Mordaunt said. “Every poll in our party, and in the country, I top it. I win against Keir Starmer in London; I poll the highest in both red wall and blue wall seats; I lead with women, with young people; and I also have the best reach in Scotland.
“So I have some question for you: do you want to win the next general election, or do you want to hand everything that we have achieved to the Labour party?”
Clearly Mordaunt has the lack of modesty required for a Tory PM. She might give Starmer a challenge.
Is there any betting on the Tory drama show outcome? Any chance Labour could buy some of the votes secretly, i.e. getting people to vote Truss? Or can they sit back and rely on mass Tory stupidity? To be more precise, on stupidity being more common among Tory MPs than among the membership.
Comment by Patrick Flynn (the twitter nerd whose prediction was posted at Thur 11.27 pm)
“Truss needed to kill Mordaunt on self-ID. Totally flunked it. The weakest performer on this panel.”
https://twitter.com/oflynnsocial/status/1548019420403970048?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Amazing that the Deves meme is getting such a run, but these are Tories after all. For another view:
“A C Grayling #FBPE 3.5% #Reform #Rejoin #FBPA
@acgrayling
·
Jul 14
Penny Mordaunt is (a) economical with the truth (b) a climate change denier (c) a Tory –
each an overwhelming reason why she should be nowhere near public office.” (same twitter feed)
Obviously the other contenders are the same, so with no election in sight Grayling will be grumbling.