SEC Newgate issues poll and Senate vacancy scuttlebutt (open thread)

Good to middling ratings for the Albanese government in a new issues poll, and talk of a Senate vacancy offering a second chance for defeated Liberal election candidates.

With a fortnight ago before the resumption of parliament, and what I presume will be the return of Newspoll to accompany it, two items to kick off a new week:

The Australian reports SEC Newgate’s monthly Mood of the Nation survey finds “nearly four out of every ten” respondents believe the new government has done an excellent or good job so far, with 31% choosing the middle option of “fair” and 26% going for poor or very poor. It also finds a sharp increase in expectations that the economy will get worse over the next three months, up from 36% a month ago to 57%, with only 8% expecting it to improve, down from 13%. Given a long list of potential contributors to rising electricity prices, 42% thought “Morrison government inaction” a “large contributor” compared with 30% for “Albanese government inaction”.

Forty-seven per cent felt the Reserve Bank’s 0.5% interest rate hike last month (as distinct from the second hike last week) appropriate, with 31% thinking it too high and 9% too low. Sixty per cent said they were positive about transitioning to renewables and 55% believed progress had been too slow, compared with only 19% for negative and 17% for too fast. Sixty-one percent rated the 5.2% minimum wage increase appropriate, with 29% thinking it too low and only 10% too high. Regular questions on issue salience recorded mounting concern over cost of living, now rated extremely important by 68% (up five on last month), moving ahead of health care (down three to 61%). Forty-two per cent rated Labor best to manage the issue, compared with 23% for the Coalition. The survey was conducted June 23 and 27 from a sample of 1201.

Linda Silmalis of the Sunday Telegraph reports “fresh gossip in Canberra this week” that Andrew Constance, the former state government minister who narrowly failed in his bid for Gilmore at the May 21 federal election, could be a nominee to fill the New South Wales Senate vacancy that will be created if rumours of Marise Payne’s imminent retirement come to pass. Others who reportedly might be interested include Dave Sharma and Fiona Martin, also on the job market after their respective defeats in Wentworth and Reid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

752 comments on “SEC Newgate issues poll and Senate vacancy scuttlebutt (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 16
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  1. Snappy Tom @ #51 Monday, July 11th, 2022 – 9:49 am

    If I had any dedication, I’d trawl back through 7 weeks of Dawn Patrol to add up the number of ‘tests’ so far, but i don’t, so I’m just going to declare this one Test for Labor #697!

    If they fail this one, you can ignore all the others 🙁


  2. Steve777says:
    Monday, July 11, 2022 at 9:45 am
    The French Pacific polities like New Caledonia and Tahiti are part of France. People who live there have French citizenship and vote in French elections, so they are not “colonies”.

    By that defination was PNG Australian Pacific polity before it became Independent in 1970s?

  3. A religious gem from Dawn Patrol…

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/catholic-bishops-backflip-on-status-of-women-in-church-giving-hope-to-reformers-20220710-p5b0hh.html

    Part of the article refers to support for instituting women as ‘Deacons’ – if the Vatican approves.

    This both is and isn’t significant. ‘Deacon’ is one of the three ordained ministries (along with priest and bishop.) Deacons are usually authorised to read the gospel reading and preach in church services – that level of authority, plus being part of an ordained ministry, would be a big deal in the Roman church (probably why it might take the Vatican ages to approve it.)

    In the Roman/Anglican/Orthodox systems, deacons are not authorised to preside at sacraments like mass (more properly known as the eucharist.) The Anglican Diocese of Sydney has some women ordained as deacons. Deacons usually serve under the authority of priests and, ultimately, bishops – so Sydney Anglicans can have ordained, but subserviant, women.

    None of the above applies to the Uniting Church (message from my sponsor) – which has been ordaining women since the 70s. When I arrived at theological college three decades ago, at least 1/3 of the intake group were women.

  4. Ven at 8.04


    In 2016, more than 20 per cent of Australians took time out of their busy lives to volunteer for one good cause or another. By 2021, this number fell to 15 per cent – a record low, writes Simon Kuestenmacher.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/2022/07/09/volunteering-australia-golden-decade/

    What could be the reason, I wonder.
    ____________

    Some churches have reflected on this. The Uniting Church is massively volunteer in composition – and participation in leadership. Our best estimate is that pressure on volunteering results from 1) increased participation of women in the workforce (in the church of the 1960s, an army of women volunteered); and 2) increased pressure of work on anyone employed (Australians work longer hours than decades ago, some of those hours being unpaid – job security now being low.)

    People have to ration their time more strictly.

  5. BK says:
    Monday, July 11, 2022 at 8:55 am
    What could be the reason, I wonder.’
    —————————–
    A disproportionate number of volunteers come from the Boomer retirees. As the census shows these are dying off as a proportion of the population.
    ________________
    Tell me about it!!!!
    “Finding energetic and capable volunteers nowadays is an impossible task and the work is being left to those oldies who are still upright.
    I fear for the future.”

    My daughter-in-law works with a woman aged 76 who is working fulltime, and not really enjoying it. Needs the money apparently.

  6. atm, the volunteer crisis is affected by the high rates of employment.

    Years ago, my son was forced to look for volunteer work as part of his Centrelink obligations.

    There were so many ‘volunteers’ generated by this system that some charities were running compulsory workshops and then choosing who they’d employ.

    Locally, the op shops had waiting lists.

    Now, with fewer people unemployed, the same op shops are closing some days of the week as they can’t get staff.

  7. Late Riser at 9.46

    The [China’s] four demands seem to be:
    * Accept China as a partner.
    * Seek common ground.
    * Don’t meddle in the Pacific.
    * Promote China.

    I expect Dutton will seize on these points.
    ____________

    Dutton: the Manchurian candidate?

  8. (per sprocket)
    ….Politico declined to comment. Politico is a centre-left media website which also has a weekly printed magazine and runs radio and podcasts. It bills itself as a “global authority on the intersection of politics, policy and power.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/politico-mulls-possible-foray-into-australian-media-landscape-20220708-p5b05i.html

    Nine/Fairfax describing Politico as “centre-left” is an obvious attempt to paint a potential rival as biased to the left while claiming they themselves are totally unbiased.

    The entry of Politico and other comparatively neutral political commentators (Bloomberg?) into the Australian media landscape would put a well deserved rocket under the Costello, Murdoch and Stokes media empires and the political influence they wield.

  9. Vensays:
    Monday, July 11, 2022 at 9:41 am


    Barney in Cheratingsays:
    Monday, July 11, 2022 at 9:32 am
    Ven,

    Isn’t it the same with France and the Pacific nations?

    Are they also meddling in Australian domestic politics?

    Barney
    Meddling in domestic politics was mentioned by BW, not me.
    BTW, Shouldn’t France meddle in domestic politics in Pacific nations as long as they are France colonies?

    Sorry, missed BW missive.

    I wasn’t referring to France in the Pacific, but both as examples of how a country’s attitude can change towards another as a result of a change of Government. Maybe an Oxford comma would have made it clearer. 🙂

  10. Ven at 10 (rhymes! woohoo!)


    Steve777says:
    Monday, July 11, 2022 at 9:45 am
    The French Pacific polities like New Caledonia and Tahiti are part of France. People who live there have French citizenship and vote in French elections, so they are not “colonies”.

    By that defination was PNG Australian Pacific polity before it became Independent in 1970s?
    ____________

    Only if the people of PNG could vote. My understanding is that the people of New Caledonia (those who are French citizens) can vote in French elections. I think there are even a small number of seats in the French parliament representing overseas territories. Constitutionally, Noumea is as French as Paris. This was never the case with PNG and Australia, when PNG was an Australian ‘protectorate.’

  11. BK

    Unable to criticise the substance of what the Albanese government is doing, The Australian takes aim at Albanese’s media staff.

    Or in other words Albo’s media staff are not treating Rupert’s ocs at The Australian with due deference and familiarity to which they had become accustomed to under previous management. wah wah wah wah .

  12. citizen says:
    Monday, July 11, 2022 at 10:24 am
    (per sprocket)
    ….Politico declined to comment. Politico is a centre-left media website which also has a weekly printed magazine and runs radio and podcasts. It bills itself as a “global authority on the intersection of politics, policy and power.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/politico-mulls-possible-foray-into-australian-media-landscape-20220708-p5b05i.html
    Nine/Fairfax describing Politico as “centre-left” is an obvious attempt to paint a potential rival as biased to the left while claiming they themselves are totally unbiased.
    ————-
    It’s all in the eye of the beholder I guess, but the only description I’ve seen of the partisan lean of Politico before now is that it’s centre right. Of course in the post Trump era mainstream sanish conservative Republicans look centrist.

  13. ”By that defination was PNG Australian Pacific polity before it became Independent in 1970s?”

    While residents of “Overseas France” have French and EU citizenship, the situation is a little more complex. Some, mostly Caribbean, are Overseas Departments and fully part of France. Some, like French Polynesia, are semi-autonomous with a status similar to British Empire Dominions before the Statute of Westminster. New Caledonia is fully autonomous.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_France#Overseas_regions_and_departments

  14. Snappy Tom

    Ha ha on Dutton, I think. My thought is that any relief in the China/Australia relationship will be framed by Dutton as bowing to China, using a combination of the four points, as spelled out by China’s Foreign Minister.
    * Accept China as a partner.
    * Seek common ground.
    * Don’t meddle in the Pacific.
    * Promote China.

    The open question is whether China, by making these points publicly, which the ABC notes Foreign Minister Wong did not, is attempting to interfere in Australia’s domestic politics. And by casting the former government as the villain in the relationship they are goading Dutton for a response. Alternative (not mutually exclusive) interpretations are that China are clumsy at foreign relations or that they simply don’t care.

  15. Other than that, we all know that Boomers are evil, greedy and selfish people who have wrecked the planet.
    ————
    According to the internet bible, that is everyone born between 1946 and 1964 (though, i suppose they only exist in certain undefined countries).

    Implicitly, something truly magical happened on 1 Jan 1965!!

    It has of course as much wisdom and truth as the northern hemisphere star signs which seem to have magical significance to many stupid people.


  16. Snappy Tomsays:
    Monday, July 11, 2022 at 10:31 am
    Ven at 10 (rhymes! woohoo!)


    Steve777says:
    Monday, July 11, 2022 at 9:45 am
    The French Pacific polities like New Caledonia and Tahiti are part of France. People who live there have French citizenship and vote in French elections, so they are not “colonies”.

    By that defination was PNG Australian Pacific polity before it became Independent in 1970s?
    ____________

    Only if the people of PNG could vote. My understanding is that the people of New Caledonia (those who are French citizens) can vote in French elections. I think there are even a small number of seats in the French parliament representing overseas territories. Constitutionally, Noumea is as French as Paris. This was never the case with PNG and Australia, when PNG was an Australian ‘protectorate.’

    USA and Australia can/ could have only ‘protectorates’ because we are so noble that we only protect but not colonise like European colonisers. 🙂
    Never mind the Native Americans or First Nation people. 🙂
    Aren’t American Samoa, Puerto Rico USA ‘protectorates’?

  17. Snappy Tom

    “ None of the above applies to the Uniting Church (message from my sponsor) – which has been ordaining women since the 70s. When I arrived at theological college three decades ago, at least 1/3 of the intake group were women.”

    And thus the UC probably has at least as decent a chance of surviving. The RCs and Anglican’s (to a lesser degree) are hoping that the population will be fooled by window dressing. It will achieve almost nothing imo.

  18. Re Rakali @10:52.

    Another common definition of baby boomers is those born between 1946 and 1961, with the “magical” event being the introduction of The Pill. Australian fertility rates peaked in 1961 at about 3.5, fell back to about 2.9 by 1970 then fell off a cliff from the early 70s to below 2, where they’ve remained since.

    https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/births-australia/latest-release

    (Scroll down to fertility rates).

    Something “magical” seems to have happened around 1971.


  19. porotisays:
    Monday, July 11, 2022 at 10:36 am
    BK

    Unable to criticise the substance of what the Albanese government is doing, The Australian takes aim at Albanese’s media staff.

    Or in other words Albo’s media staff are not treating Rupert’s ocs at The Australian with due deference and familiarity to which they had become accustomed to under previous management. wah wah wah wah .

    LOL.

  20. Steve777: “Something “magical” seems to have happened around 1971.”

    20-25 year olds born after the second world war started having children.


  21. maxsays:
    Monday, July 11, 2022 at 10:39 am
    citizen says:
    Monday, July 11, 2022 at 10:24 am
    (per sprocket)
    ….Politico declined to comment. Politico is a centre-left media website which also has a weekly printed magazine and runs radio and podcasts. It bills itself as a “global authority on the intersection of politics, policy and power.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/politico-mulls-possible-foray-into-australian-media-landscape-20220708-p5b05i.html
    Nine/Fairfax describing Politico as “centre-left” is an obvious attempt to paint a potential rival as biased to the left while claiming they themselves are totally unbiased.
    ————-
    It’s all in the eye of the beholder I guess, but the only description I’ve seen of the partisan lean of Politico before now is that it’s centre right. Of course in the post Trump era mainstream sanish conservative Republicans look centrist.

    No ‘left’ is left in US anymore other than a few individuals like AOC, Sanders ( some beg to differ that).
    There is a saying Australian Liberal party is to the left of Democrats and Republicans ( that may not be a correct description now, that discussion is for another time).
    You want to see what left and crazy left looks like. Go to India.

  22. “ For the past three days key LNP figures from a state and federal level acknowledged female voters were turned away from the Coalition, making it a potential contributor to its bruising Federal election loss in May.
    But when quizzed on why voters were withdrawing support, the party was less forthcoming.”

    They know what the problem is and why but have absolutely no solutions at all. That just means more of the same. They refuse to consider quotas (despite and possibly because of the ALP’s success imo) but we all know that in the end, it is clearly one of the solutions. Just continues to show how out of touch they are with. Perhaps they could even consider their policies?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-11/qld-lnp-convention-analysis-women-voters/101224960

  23. From the BK files:

    women have continued to drift from the Coalition since the election
    Paul Karp tells us that a second poll in mid-June found the gender gap had widened to 10 points, with 28% of women saying they would vote for the Coalition, compared with 38% of male voters.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/11/more-women-than-men-voted-against-morrison-government-in-federal-election-polling-shows

    On reading the article the only insight I’ve got is that Morrison’s legacy will not easily be erased. Quite the reverse, it’s becoming entrenched.

  24. ”20-25 year olds born after the second world war started having children.”

    Yes, that makes sense.

    It would seem to tie in with other social changes:
    – contraception
    – attitudes to marriage and sex, perhaps easier divorce
    – longer education, especially of girls
    – women were no longer expected to (or expecting or wanting to) stay hone and look after the house and kids. They wanted and were entitled to a career too
    – later on, with escalating housing prices, they couldn’t stay home even if they wanted to

    EDIT: I’ll add two mor:
    – the end of the long postwar boom from 1974, when unemployment barely existed in Australia
    – the onset of neoliberal economic management
    – etc etc

  25. The definition of the “Left” varies. Some (e.g. some “Liberals”, Newscorp propagandists) seem to think it means “not crazy Right”).

  26. Me: “It’s hilarious that people think that any media company in the US can be labled any variation of ‘left’.”

    ar: “MSNBC.”

    lofl. MSNBC is about as ‘left’ as Costello’s Nine/Fairfax. As in, not.


  27. Cronussays:
    Monday, July 11, 2022 at 11:17 am
    “ For the past three days key LNP figures from a state and federal level acknowledged female voters were turned away from the Coalition, making it a potential contributor to its bruising Federal election loss in May.
    But when quizzed on why voters were withdrawing support, the party was less forthcoming.”

    They know what the problem is and why but have absolutely no solutions at all. That just means more of the same. They refuse to consider quotas (despite and possibly because of the ALP’s success imo) but we all know that in the end, it is clearly one of the solutions. Just continues to show how out of touch they are with. Perhaps they could even consider their policies?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-11/qld-lnp-convention-analysis-women-voters/101224960

    ABC: the party was less forthcoming.

    Me: Perhaps the party was less forthcoming because they don’t want to upset Dutton as he could be one of the reasons. 🙂

  28. re Politico:

    Tony Abbott considers himself to be Centre-Right, as does Scomo (remember him?)

    John Howard and Dutton do too.

    Centrism is truly in the eye of the beholder.

    In the meantime – Covid runs rampant but ignored.

  29. lofl. MSNBC is about as ‘left’ as Costello’s Nine/Fairfax. As in, not.

    Agreed. It was reported that MSNBC cancelled Phil Donahue’s show Donahue because Donahue opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq and that he would be a “difficult public face for NBC in a time of war” and that his program could be “a home for the liberal anti-war agenda”.

    PBS has been criticised by Republicans as having a political/ideological bias. But generally because its a news channel that tells both sides of the story. Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney suggested he wanted to cut the funding for it like Federal Liberal governments do in Australia with the ABC.

  30. Steve777

    the onset of neoliberal economic management
    ———

    In Australia that was in the 1990s.

    My objection to the term, is when it’s used to label a whole cohort of people born between two arbitrary dates as if they conformed to a stereotype reflecting the prejudices of the user.

    In that form it is equivalent to racism and is as contemptible.

  31. While I’m thinking on US matters, I came across an article on Trump earlier by the Independent. It’s closed to me now so I have to trust memory. But apart from the main topic (that Trump is terrified of the J6C) it also mentioned a 7th J6C public hearing provisionally scheduled for this Thursday, US prime time. This is in addition to tomorrow night’s (PB time) hearing on the links between Proud Boys and Trump. The very first public hearing was prime time, and only that one. I wonder if Thursday’s prime time (late morning Friday PB time) will be the wrap up. Something to look forward to.

    This is the link, fwiw.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-mary-jan6-evidence-b2119678.html

  32. Boerwar

    Yes I like the “Redzone” concept in Christchurch too. Simple, clear and hard to argue around.

    Ven

    My sympathy re public sector engineering and careers. Bad governmetn policy has not only wasted a lot of national capability in engineering, but wasted many years of many people’s lives.

    And if anyone thinks we are going to safely deliver working nuclear submarines in this country without some people with relevant engineering skills running the relevant parts of the Defence department, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

    Have a good day all.

  33. For mine, the political centre should represent a completely rational approach to policy with no ideological bias.

  34. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-government-cites-national-security-to-keep-barilaro-documents-secret-20220710-p5b0ir.html

    The NSW government is refusing to make public several documents relating to the process surrounding John Barilaro’s appointment to a US trade posting, claiming the papers would threaten national security and damage the state’s relationship with the Commonwealth.

    Surely this a joke!

    What they really mean is: we are a corrupt Government so we would prefer to not provide you with evidence. That is surely reasonable for a Liberal!

  35. The latest on Bruzgate:

    Jenny West, who received a verbal offer for a New York trade post before it was withdrawn and the job given to former deputy premier John Barilaro, said she was told the role would be “a present for someone”.
    4 minutes ago (SMH)

    And earlier today – “national security”???

    National security cited to keep Barilaro documents secret
    The NSW government is refusing to make public several documents relating to the process surrounding John Barilaro’s appointment to a US trade posting. (SMH)


  36. Pi says:
    Monday, July 11, 2022 at 11:18 am

    It’s hilarious that people think that any media company in the US can be labled any variation of ‘left’.

    When it comes to the printed media the US media is a lot more diverse than in Australia.

  37. Senator Lidia Thorpe
    @SenatorThorpe
    ·
    44m
    It’s time to clean up politics in this country. A federal anti-corruption watchdog with teeth needs whistleblower protection, independent funding and the power to probe people and businesses outside of Government.

    I agree with Thorpe and so would every rational thinking Australian.

  38. It still looks like Pork Barellano will ensure that Matt Kean becomes NSW premier, through mismanagement rather than intent.

  39. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers say the national jobs and skills summit will take place September 1-2 at Parliament House @FinancialReview

  40. Regarding Chicomms demand that Australia treat them as ‘partner’ might have come from the realisation that they could not wean away Pacific Islands from the influence of Australia even after promising to throw truck load of money towards PI nations and lin the process lost face on the world stage after treating a democratic country (Australia) like a rag doll.
    They treated India in the same way after weaning away Nepal and Sri Lanka from the influence of India.
    Once those countries faced hard times like now, who do you think they went for help when China didn’t help. To India and other democratic nations.

  41. NSW Government questioning of Jenny West would indicate that the game is up.. & the government is going to plead guilty to political interference to aid & abet Pork Barellaro

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