Home alone (open thread)

New research suggests home ownership together with age were the distinguishing cleavages of the recent federal election, plus post-election blame games on both sides of politics.

There are posts above on state politics in New South Wales and below on the slow motion demise of Boris Johnson. This one covers local electoral news relevant to (mostly) the federal tier:

• In an article for The Monthly by George Megalogenis, Shaun Ratcliff of the University of Sydney relates research suggesting home owners were nearly twice as likely to vote Coalition than non-home owners after controlling for income. However, there was a marked exception for those under 35, who were twice as likely to vote Labor and Greens than the Coalition, which played a major role in the latter’s disastrous showing in the big cities. The Coalition had just 16% support among renters, compared with 38% for Labor and 35% for the Greens. Home owners were only half as likely to vote for the Greens as renters, while distinctions among Labor were more modest. This was based on the Australian Cooperative Election Survey, conducted during the campaign from a sample of around 5800 by YouGov and various universities, which we will be hearing a lot more from in future.

• The Guardian reports Senator Andrew Bragg is pushing for changes to the New South Wales Liberal Party’s rules at its annual general meeting later this month to allow preselections to proceed without the involvement of the leader’s representative in the nomination review process. This seemingly arcane point lay at the centre of the long-running logjam in its preselection process before the federal election, when Scott Morrison’s centre right faction ally Alex Hawke persistently failed to show at meetings to move the process forward. Factional rivals said this was a deliberate effort to force the national executive to intervene to protect centre right incumbents from preselection defeats. Bragg’s proposal has been criticised by Hollie Hughes, Liberal Senator and centre right member, who instead blames reforms championed by Tony Abbott that required the concurrence of 90% of state executive members to certify factional deals that would have broken the deadlock.

• Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reports members of Labor’s Cabramatta branch have reacted to Kristina Keneally’s parachute malfunction in Fowler by calling for those who “white-anted” her to be disciplined. This included passage of a motion calling on the party administration to consider expelling Tu Le, whose own aspirations for the seat were thwarted by the Keneally manoeuvre. Local sources cited by Knott said members were “peeved by the presumption Le would have won a rank-and-file ballot given she had only moved to the electorate a year earlier herself and was not well-known in the area”.

• Poll Bludger regular Adrian Beaumont has a piece in The Conversation on the performance of the polls at the federal election, which I mean to get around covering myself in depth eventually.

• Matt Martino of the ABC drew upon my supposed expertise in a fact check on claims made by Barnaby Joyce about the federal election result. I rated him no pinocchios, but told him to watch it anyway.

• Late counting has shown the Liberals’ performance in Saturday’s Bragg state by-election in South Australia to have been a bit less bad than it appeared on the night. There has actually been a 2.8% swing in their favour on postals and pre-polls, compared with a 6.0% swing on the election day votes that were all we had to go on on Saturday. This leaves the Liberal margin at 5.5%, down from 8.2% at the March election (and 16.8% at the election before).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

994 comments on “Home alone (open thread)”

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  2. Interestingly there seems in my opinion a subtle change to reporting at least in The Age regarding the ongoing number of COVID cases and deaths in Victoria and concerns about a winter wave of cases. I am wondering if there is some laying of groundwork in regards to reintroducing mask mandates and other restrictions without going ‘full lockdown’ approach.

    Many comments in the articles published so far in the last few days certainly are 70 / 30 in favour of reintroduction of mask mandates now and potentially working from home. It could be a ‘carrot v stick’ approach perhaps by the Government … get back on the masks or more severe restrictions will be (re)introduced for the remainder of winter.

    Not sure how the ‘Hun’ is reporting on this at present as I don’t read that ‘newspaper’ … I would be curious to see what their line is at present.

  3. max at 8.19

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/unfairly-or-not-a-globe-trotting-pm-courts-trouble-if-only-menzies-listened-to-his-wife-20220707-p5azzz.html

    “The criticisms levelled at Albanese are unreasonable. The comparisons with Scott Morrison’s Hawaiian vacation in December 2019 during the bushfires are absurd. Counting in the election had only recently finished; parliament has not resumed; the present season would normally be its winter recess”
    ____________

    I tolerated reading most of this piece of crap. How about “Each of these trips was important to our national interest and Albanese had no control over the timing of some of them…”

    “…winter recess…” is about the most trivial justification possible – almost as if the journo wants the reader to think the trips unimportant, hence promoting a negative opinion of Albanese. Journos wouldn’t be ‘push-polling’ like this, surely…

  6. Dutton has more to wory abbout then being over seas his haplis home affairs spojkesman karin Andrews apart from not knowing he was away was sent out to coment out on abeys death she said that its only a matter of timewhen will have a attack similar hear sheseems to be very gaf prone also said in election campaign that china should have waited until albanesewon to anowse solamons deal

  7. Have no idea whiy andrews is in charge of home affairs during morrisons time was largily hidden and is clearly out of her depth gives hughes and robbert competition as the liberals worst performer was a former enginear its okay to say we should be on alert for posible attacks


  9. 1934pc says:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 10:16 am

    It’s the middle of winter and there is so much flu and cold viruses about. That alone should encourage people to wear masks ???

    When will the Australian TGA approve Starpharma’s Viraleze anti Virus Nasal spray, effective against
    Influenza type A ‘AND” B, and all known variants of Covid 19 !!!!!

    Do some Research people !

    I am sure the TGA will give approval when the research is done.

    Do some Research people !
    Translates to. You to can also read random shit on the internet.

  13. BK says:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 9:28 am
    “How refreshing it has been to see so many of the new ministers communicating effectively, honestly and without the BS we had to previously had to endure.”

    +1. Just so reasonable.
    ————
    + 2. You see the same thing with a slew of the new Ministers – notably Chalmers. Plibersek and Bowen, on a good day, have always had that gift to a degree. Hope they can all keep it up

  14. Butlerhas been making the point that covid casis are worse then ever becaus of the new strain and people over 50 need to get up to date with boosters but last week anowsed that over seas pasingers no longer have to prove they have been vacksedwhich is strange because if people comeun vacksinated it increasis the risk of spreading als he is not the most interesting speaker a bit like marles it does seem like health is a more senyor role then climate

  15. Grant Ex-Libris

    From the Herald Sun 2/7/22. This was was the best I could see on masks. Herald having a bit each way as they know the nmbers are increasing.

    Victorian health authorities warn Covid deaths, hospitalisations set to soar as mutations take over

    A senior Victorian minister has said mask mandates are not planned amid the state’s deadly Covid surge but denied it has anything to do with a looming state election.

    tes an increase in cases including reinfections, hospital admissions and deaths. Picture: David Caird
    Coronavirus

    Don’t miss out on the headlines from Coronavirus. Followed categories will be added to My News.

    Victorian health authorities have sounded a grim warning over the rise of Covid mutations able to evade vaccines but a senior Labor minister has all but ruled out a reintroduction of mask mandates.

    Minister Lily D’Ambrosio said on Saturday Victoria had no plans to reintroduce mask wearing despite the growing number of Covid cases.

    “We are always guided by our health advice,” Ms D’Ambrosio said.

    “The current heath advice in Victoria has with us the right settings for our state.

    “Conversations can happen around different states depending on their own circumstances.

    “But here in Victoria, we have the right settings in place.”

    Ms D’Ambrosio said the looming state election in November had nothing to do with not implementing Covid restrictions.

    “Health is too important – we’re talking about life or death here,” she said.

    “We know what it’s like to have Covid embedded in our community and everything this government has ever done is follow the science and health advice.”

    Her comments came after the Victorian Department of Health warned Covid deaths and hospitilisations across the state were set to soar as mutants took hold.

    “The Department of Health anticipates the prevalence of BA.4/BA.5 in Victoria is likely to result in an increase in cases – including reinfections – and hospital admissions and deaths.

    “This is because the strain has a greater ability than BA.2 to evade immunity provided by vaccination and earlier Covid-19 infection,” it said on Friday night.

    Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 are likely to become the dominant strains in Victoria.

    Queensland has flagged it could reintroduce mask mandates, as its Covid wave worsens.

    Queensland’s chief health officer Dr John Gerrard has confirmed the reintroduction of mandatory masks is “being discussed”.

    Dr Gerrard said a number of his interstate colleagues had flagged the possibility of once again asking people to mask up to slow the spread.

    “I can say that nationally, there is increasing pressure, there is a school of thought that we should be mandating masks again,” he said.

    The prevalence of Omicron stealth strains BA.4/BA.5 in Victorian metropolitan and regional wastewater catchments has recently soared, showing growing transmission of the worrisome variants in the community.

    8/7/22
    Federal Health Minister Mark Butler has declared that Australia has moved past mask mandates and lockdowns, despite the country being the grip of a another Covid wave.

    “The advice from the chief health officers indicates that we really have moved beyond the era of very broad mask mandates, lockdowns and things like that,” he told ABC.

    “We’re deep into the third year of this pandemic.”

    Mr Butler said while some mask orders were still in place, “I don’t see a return to very broad-based mask mandates”.

    “The message is – take responsibility. Make your own choice.”

    Meanwhile, senior Andrews government minister Ben Carroll also ruled out the prospect of further mandates and lockdowns in Victoria.

    “We are not considering mandates or lockdowns,” he said on Friday morning.

    It comes despite newly appointed Health Minister Mary-Anne Thomas a day earlier said reintroducing such measures was not off the table.

    “No decisions have been taken,” she said.

    Opposition health spokeswoman Georgie Crozier hit out at the mixed messages, saying Victorians deserved answers and clarity about the state’s future.

    “The Minister has confirmed new restrictions are actively being modelled, discussed and considered by the Department of Health,” she said.

    “The government clearly has a plan for new restrictions and needs to come clean today.

    “Victorians cannot move forward with the spectre of more lockdowns and mandates hanging over our heads – this is not the path to recovery.”

    And opposition leader Matthew Guy also slammed comments from the state’s new health minister after she refused to rule out reintroducing mask mandates and working from home orders.

  22. Snappy Tom says:
    Sunday, July 10,
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/10/labor-aims-to-legislate-spending-caps-and-truth-in-advertising-says-don-farrell

    I’m so pleased my hobby horse of one vote/one value, regardless of jurisdiction, is going to be discussed.
    ———
    Me too! I can only think it’s a code for an increase in the size of the House and Senate, based on these comments from the article:

    “Farrell confirmed the party will aim to legislate the reforms, along with tackling malapportionment, whereby some votes in the House of Representatives and Senate count for more than others due to the voter’s state or territory of residence.

    Anthony Albanese has twice stressed the importance of the principle of one-vote one-value since being elected prime minister.”

    Most of the current “malapportionment” in the House relates to the over representation of our dear Taswegian brothers and sisters (due to the Constitution) and territory voters (due to probably transient population factors). The only remedy for that, without a (dead on arrival) attempt at constitutional amendment would be to increase the size of the House. I doubt that the House would be increased to the extent needed to make sure that voters in Tasmania and the North Island have complete parity but it would reduce the discrepancy. I suspect Teals, Greens and possibly even the Nats would get behind it as it would arguably be in their own best interests

    That would create a constitutional need to increase the number of State based Senators, giving cover for a significant increase in territory Senators as well. That would reduce one aspect of current “malapportionment” in the Senate – the under representation of the great city of Canberra esp relative to Tasmania- but might result in NT voters being relatively over represented relative to most States except Tassie. Still the overall result would be fairer- short of the ideal solution of major constitutional re-engineering

  24. I just would like to emphasise that Butler (and/or those advising) is making a grave mistake. Saying “We’re beyond … lockdowns and mandates and emergency payments. We are at the point where there needs to be maximum information to the community so they can make informed decisions themselves” does not provide much room to manoeuvre, should circumstances change.

    And change they have.

  25. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/09/boris-johnson-accused-of-trying-to-derail-rishi-sunaks-bid-to-be-next-pm

    Senior Tories accused Boris Johnson of trying to torpedo Rishi Sunak’s bid to succeed him as prime minister – and of refusing to leave No 10 with good grace – as the leadership race descended into bitter infighting.

    As a trio of cabinet ministers entered the contest last night, senior MPs said the battle now risked inflicting even more damage on the party than the fall of Margaret Thatcher more than three decades ago.

    One party grandee accused Johnson of installing unsuitable MPs to middle-ranking and junior government posts when he knew he was on his way out “to cause maximum problems for his successor” who would inevitably have to sack most of them on taking office.

    “Those appointments were the most appalling thing I have seen in politics,” said the senior source. “It was obviously a move to sabotage his successor’s first weeks in office.”

    Another senior figure in the government added that Johnson was so incensed at the way he had been ousted, having won such a huge mandate at the 2019 general election, that he was now intent on exacting revenge on those he saw as responsible, and on influencing events wherever possible from the outside.

    “This is not an administration that is going to go quietly. There is a lot of anger about how this all happened,” said the source. “It is clear that much of it will now focus on Rishi. It is all very Trumpian.”

  27. Griff @ #783 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 11:16 am

    I just would like to emphasise that Butler (and/or those advising) is making a grave mistake. Saying “We’re beyond … lockdowns and mandates and emergency payments. We are at the point where there needs to be maximum information to the community so they can make informed decisions themselves” does not provide much room to manoeuvre, should circumstances change.

    And change they have.

    Vaccines are available and masks are available.

    Not much more Govt needs to do, in my humble opinion.

    People are beyond help if they choose not to partake in those simple measures of mitigation.

  30. Butler needs to lead a national advertising program to encourage people to wear masks, wash hands and social distance.
    A couple of weeks ago we were getting funny looks for being the 1 in 200 people who were wearing masks at the Mall.
    Now the new stats have created a situation in which 5-10 in a hundred are wearing masks.
    Using advertising’s strengths to make it U to wear masks would be an excellent use of public health monies, IMO.

  31. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 11:25 am

    nath @ #787 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 11:22 am

    Truth in political advertising. How is that going to be adjudicated or enforced?

    I think you should apply for job of implementation. What would be your pitch ..?
    ________________
    I would resign right away and stress the impossibility and stupidity of the task.

  32. Rex Douglas @ Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 11:21 am

    And that is the exact problem. In a pandemic, there is no us and them. You cannot split the population. Public Health 101.

    Sorry.

  33. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 11:21 am

    “People are beyond help if they choose not to partake in those simple measures of mitigation.”
    ———-
    And yet, as was just mentioned on a podcast I was listening to, a mask mandate generally has been found to produce compliance rates of ~90%, while a strong public health recommendation has been found to produce compliance rates of ~ 50%. In, and because of, that 40% segment that is not masking there will be hundreds (at least) of additional cases of serious illness and hospitalisation and additional deaths.

    Whether that’s acceptable to us or not as a community and as a polity is another question.

  34. Ven

    Initially I thought that is was bad that Boris was going to linger until October (along with a promise NOT to make any major decisions!).

    Now I think it is excellent.

    Now the Tory Corruption can eat itself alive for another three months.

  36. Griff @ #791 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 11:26 am

    Rex Douglas @ Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 11:21 am

    And that is the exact problem. In a pandemic, there is not us and them. You cannot split the population. Public Health 101.

    Sorry.

    These new medications Butler refers to would seem to be of great assistance to treatment and keeping hospital admissions down.

  37. 2 things I’m still doing:
    * Washing hands multiple times a day
    * using hand sanitiser in all public situations

    One thing I’m not doing:
    *wearing a mask when I don’t legally have to

    What I’m slowly getting around to doing again:
    *wearing a mask

    🙂

  38. ”

    Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 11:27 am
    Ven

    Initially I thought that is was bad that Boris was going to linger until October (along with a promise NOT to make any major decisions!).

    Now I think it is excellent.

    Now the Tory Corruption can eat itself alive for another three months.
    ”

    BW
    Tory turmoil keeps Bank of England in the dark on tackling crisis. BOJO wanted extra spending with tax cuts (sounds familiar)

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/10/tory-turmoil-keeps-bank-of-england-in-the-dark-on-tackling-crisis

    From the article:
    In normal times, central banks are supposed to pay little regard to the political gyrations that keep politicians occupied in Westminster’s tea rooms and bars. These are not normal times. Inflation has hit 9.1% and Bank staff are under pressure to push up interest rates to squeeze the economy and with it the inflationary pressures driving prices higher.

    Before last week’s political drama unfolded, Johnson and his now-former chancellor Rishi Sunak had been scheduled to hold a press conference this week spelling out how the government’s tax and spending policies would develop over the next six months.

    In his resignation speech on Tuesday night, Sunak said he had been unable to agree a path forward with Johnson, who wanted to announce bigger spending on defence and welfare. Sunak could not support this if it was not funded by tax rises. It is understood that Johnson wanted to marry his extra spending with tax cuts, increasing the amount of money that would be pumped into the economy

  40. Rex Douglas @ Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 11:33 am

    While antivirals are of assistance, they are not a panacea. Prevention trumps treatment. Vaccination trumps antivirals.

  42. I think the Tories in Britain are getting to the point of chaos and dysfunction that Morrison’s government had gotten to before the federal election.

    #ElectionNowinBritain

  43. nath says:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 11:26 am
    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 11:25 am

    nath @ #787 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 11:22 am

    Truth in political advertising. How is that going to be adjudicated or enforced?

    ——————-
    It might end up being too hard but definitely worth a try.

    If advertising authorised by someone (and if unauthorised it’s illegal anyway) claims/implies that Party X intends to [introduce a death tax/abolish Medicare] when it’s not part of Party X’s platform and no spokesperson for Party X has publicly advocated for their party to do that, then it’s not unreasonable to expect the person who authorised the advertising to show why the statement wasn’t misleading and deceptive say (ie if that test from competition law were used as the benchmark of truth). Enforcement- difficult in the moment and in the midst of an election campaign but a serious penalty regime could be a deterrent.

    Sure there would be cases where it would be difficult to adjudicate- but that’s the case throughout the legal system.

    I wouldn’t be giving up on it just because it’s hard. I agree it is.

  44. If as it seems Johnson’s motivation to stay on until October is to exact revenge on those who’ve ousted him, the Tories have a way out: vote with Labour in a no-confidence motion.

  45. ”
    Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 11:29 am
    ‘Barking Mad!’ is right.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/10/stark-raving-barking-mad-experts-question-the-building-of-homes-below-worst-case-flood-levels-in-western-sydney
    ”

    BW
    You say ‘barking mad’ but people in Hawkesbury-Napean region want the Waragamba dam height to be increased to build more houses. And DoPe tends to agree with him. He said that in 20 years time people should not be saying that something should have be done now.

  48. Rex Douglas @ Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 11:47 am

    Irrespective of what people are “done” with, the virus is not done with us.

  49. Pursuing ‘truth in political advertising’ is a mistake IMO.

    Primarily because any such mechanism is only going to be able to ‘catch’ the most trivial, superficial obvious untruths. The vast majority of misleading political advertising will be beyond reach for the simple reason that it’s always arguable, and identifying what is a fact and what is not in a space dominated by speculation about the future is basically impossible.

    But in addition to being ineffective, I think there is an added risk, and that is that once there is officially ‘truth in political advertising’, then many people will see misleading political advertising and assume that it has been fact checked and given a tick of approval – and thus should be accepted at face value, or just as credible as what anyone else is saying – when in reality it hasn’t. It’s kind of like those dodgy supplements etc that claim a bunch of stuff and then say “TGA Approved!”. Of course the TGA only checks that it isn’t likely to seriously harm you if taken as directed, not whether it does what the promoters claim, but clearly this kind of claim works to fool some significant segment of the community.

    Better to leave political advertising as the wild west and not let people think any of it has been vetted, because in reality it can’t be vetted to any useful depth.

  50. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 11:47 am
    I think the Tories in Britain are getting to the point of chaos and dysfunction that Morrison’s government had gotten to before the federal election.

    #ElectionNowinBritain
    ”

    In my humble opinion, Morrison government is in much better position than Tories in Britain because ALP was trailing or on par with LNP on PV in Australia Whereas British Labour is way ahead on PV and Morrison was able to hide all the useless ministers and chaos before election whereas BOJO is unable to do that.

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