Still nothing from Newspoll; the fortnightly Essential Research should be along this week, but may not tell us anything too exciting if it’s still holding off on resuming voting intention; and who knows what Roy Morgan might do.
Recent news items relevant to the federal sphere and within the ambit of this site:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Liberal plans to get Josh Frydenberg back into federal parliament, which one party source rates as “only a matter of how and when”. However, finding a vehicle for his return is a problem with no obvious solution. While some are reportedly urging him to win back Kooyong, another Liberal is quoted saying an infestation of sandals and tofu in Hawthorn means the seat is now forever lost. Another idea is for him to win Higgins back from Labor, supposedly an easier task since Labor will receive weaker preference flows than an independent. There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan. Suggestions he might try his hand on the metropolitan fringes at La Trobe and Monash are running into concerns that he might go the way of Kristina Keneally. Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.
• The Australia Institute has published results from a poll of 1424 respondents conducted by Dynata from the day of the election on May 21 through to 25 which found 86% agreed that truth in political advertising laws should be in place by the time of the next election, with little demographic or partisan variation. Sixty-five per cent said they had been exposed to advertising they knew to be misleading at least once a week during the campaign.
• A further study by the Australia Institute found that Labor led the field on social media advertising with expenditure of more than $5 million, after its 2019 post-election review found its social media strategy had been lacking. The Coalition collectively spent around $3.5 million and the United Australia Party $1.7 million.
Election analysis tools:
• Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic has developed a three-pronged “pendulum” to deal with the limitations of the traditional Mackerras model, which entirely assumes two-party competition. Labor, the Coalition and “others” each get a two-sided prong, with margins against the other two recorded on opposite sides.
• David Barry again provides Senate preference calculators that work off the ballot paper data to allow you to observe how each parties’ preferences divided among the various other parties, which you can narrow down according to taste. The deluxe model involves a downloadable app that you can then populate with data files, but there is now a no-frills online version that is limited to above-the-line votes.
• Andrew Conway has a site that allows you to do all sorts of things with the Senate results once you have climbed its learning curve, such as conduct a double dissolution-style count in which twelve (or any other number you care to nominate) rather than six candidates are elected in each state (on a relevant state page, click the “recount” link, enter 12 in the vacancies box towards the bottom, and click “recount”. Its tools can be used not only on each Senate election going back to 2013, but also on New South Wales local government elections at which councillors were elected under the Senate-style single transferable vote system last December.
• Mitch Gooding offers a tool that allows you to replicate how you filled out your Senate paper and calculates exactly how your vote was chopped up and distributed through various exclusions in the count and which candidates it helped elect, if any.
In a rather wonderful systematic move, Labor is going to give the Fair Work Commission a remit to use its power make orders with respect to the gender pay gap.
I wait with hope for the Greens and the Xbenchers to apologize for EVER uttering ‘same old same old’.
Because if they do not do that they are walking past thousands of their own lies.
Hmm… are we certain there weren’t other bags that failed to make its way to the charities …?
Hmmmm…. ?
Torchbearer:
It’s rather odd. He’s been acting as if the new government is halfway through their term and beset by several scandals, not newly elected and in the midst of their honeymoon.
In terms of states leaving the states a rather important question is what the military would do. This is not, IMO, at all clear. IMO it is highly likely that it would fragment to some extent.
Torchbearer says:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 12:35 pm
“Anyone else finding Dutton’s behaviour a bit bizarre? Having little local ‘meet the people’ events and making election style pledges for pension increases, Veteran Affairs etc…
Does he realise the election has been run…and lost? That people have now switched off for 2 years? That any promise/policy announced now means nothing by 2025? Does he think he is somehow pressuring the Govt that doesn’t need his numbers at all?
Its all rather impotent and pathetic. It is almost like he doesn’t know what to do in opposition, or hasn’t accepted it.”
Further proof Dutton is a Dud choice. No initiative, nothing fresh, just more of the same ol same ol that lost them the last election. Simply, he offers nothing.
Morrison should just have picked up the phone and…
https://twitter.com/ChloeBouras/status/1541247704617336833?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1541247704617336833%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2Flive%2F2022%2Fjun%2F27%2Faustralia-news-live-update-albanese-madrid-nato-summit-crossbench-health-economy-victoria-nsw-qld-labor-coalition-dutton%3FfilterKeyEvents%3Dfalsepage%3Dwith%3Ablock-62b911428f0814a0d5d43c40block-62b911428f0814a0d5d43c40
Dutton will frame the next three years as an election campaign.
This has been reasonably standard in recent years.
How nimble he is in this travail is another question entirely.
Poroti
The real reason for Dutton’s visit to Perth was most likely to attend the State of Origin
match last night.
And didn’t that end well for Queensland.
The sudden care for aged pensioners is window dressing and the media bought it.
‘Katharine Murphy
Tanya Plibersek says a damning national environmental report card received by the former Coalition government last year but not released, tells an “alarming story” of decline, native species extinction and cultural heritage loss.
In one of her first interviews as the new federal environment and water minister, Plibersek said the state of the environment report – a five-yearly official scientific assessment – would be released when she gave a National Press Club address on 19 July. It would help inform changes Labor planned to strengthen the country’s widely criticised national environment laws, she said….’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jun/27/australia-news-live-update-albanese-madrid-nato-summit-crossbench-health-economy-victoria-nsw-qld-labor-coalition-dutton?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-62b911428f0814a0d5d43c40#top-of-blog
—————————————–
Here we have another nail in the coffin of the same old same old lie.
The Coalition sat on the SOE Report.
Labor is releasing it and signalling that it will be used as input to strengthen environmental protections.
Well done Minister Plibersek!
Senator Linda Reynolds is deeply concerned at the state of the Libs in the Cave. She reckons we will become a one party state.
The Cave Liberals have been taken over by right wing christians and the electoral consequence is plain to see. Maybe Reynolds should have spent more time resisting the takeover instead of carrying out their dirty work in the attempted distruction of evidence.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/brittany-higgins-steam-cleaning-of-ministerial-office-ordered-in-hours-after-alleged-rape-of-staffer/3e256110-08d1-49e7-9f89-9622eb8cd025
Boerwar says:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 12:45 pm
“In terms of states leaving the states a rather important question is what the military would do. This is not, IMO, at all clear. IMO it is highly likely that it would fragment to some extent.”
I agree, National Guards would take on far greater roles for a start. Again, in my experience, the US military lacks the homogeneity of Australia. This naturally reflects broader society so probably isn’t surprising but makes for an interesting note to foreigners military who spend time with them. The unity on display seems somewhat contrived when tribal state alliances are raised. It can be a bit of a shock. They are less unified by natural cause than they are by their enemies. They are undoubtedly patriotic but there is a very real undercurrent, particularly between those from old Union and Confederate states.
Dutton will frame the next three years as an election campaign.
This has been reasonably standard in recent years.
__________
Which is precisely what Morrison did in the last term.
If red states start moving to succede while the Democrats are in the white house, I honestly think they should be allowed to do so as long as referendums are held in the affected states. It’s probably the only hope the US has to achieve the sort of long-term electoral and legislative change they so desperately need.
Rossmcg at 12:49 pm
I reckon not so much ‘window dressing’ as sucking up to a donor. One who is as big a rwnj as he is.
I’d love to know the details of ‘the plan’ as over the years Gina has come up with some pretty FMD! proposals for her to get some ‘cheap’ labour. Ones ol’ Lang would have approved.
Asha @ #163 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 12:59 pm
Will there be a mass migration of residents between states in the meantime …?
Poroti
The same woman that wanted to pay $2 an hour for workers.
World’s richest woman calls for Australians to take a pay cut – ‘because African workers are willing to earn just $2 a day’
Mining boss Gina Rinehart says Australian labour is becoming too costly
Comments received criticism by PM Julia Gillard who insists cheap labour is ‘not the Australian way’
Granny Anny
The time line of the rise of the holy rollers and the decline of the Libs does not seem coincidental . Was the arrival of the holy rollers a cause the decline or was their arrival a sign that they had declined already ?
Denise Maree
@DeniseT63588198
Teals before the election “We have to stop the rorts”! After the election “Hang on! Not THOSE rorts”,
Ewart, Dave
@davidbewart
Was it really masterful politics from Albo to out the liberal independents early by cutting staffing levels? I think so.
steve davis at 1:05 pm
I think it was Gina back in those days who proposed anchoring passenger ships off the Kimberly (or Pilbara ?) . Then using them for accommodation for workers from Asia.
poroti @ #149 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 12:42 pm
Jealous of Albanese and trying to emulate him, maybe you’re the furthest he can get from home?
Albo knows they are just soft Liberals occupying the Liberal party of the pasts space.They wouldnt vote Labor if their lives depended on it.
Short note on the three-pronged pendulum mentioned above.
WB’s link takes you to a 404 error, but you can view the pendulum if you go to this page and click on
It links to a PDF that downloads fairly quickly, but it’s so confusing I’m not sure of the value.
steve davis at 1:16 pm
Pocock a Lib ?
Re Late Riser at 1.25 pm
Dr Bonham has an authentic user-friendly pendulum on his site. Easy to read as an A4 table. Plus intelligent elaboration.
Poroti at 12.36
It was a pretty seamless slide from being under the British Empire umbrella to the American Empire’s umbrella. There doesn’t seem to be a friendly ‘800lb Gorilla’ alternative if/when the US Empire fades .
____________
I would prefer not to need anyone’s umbrella – but that implies at least a debate on acquiring nuclear weapons, to be frank.
An option we rarely seem to consider is the world’s 4th-most-powerful nuclear nation: France. France has territory in the Pacific – some of it just off our north-east coast. Unlike ‘possession’ of other ‘former’ empires, citizens in these French possessions get to vote. Yes, Noumea, politically speaking, is a slice of France!
Now that we have a sane govt, some form of partnership with the French could work for us and them: their strategic cover, our regional presence.
If we felt the regional environment was sufficiently insecure, we could negotiate to invest in French nuclear weapons technology, which is basically the second best in the world.
poroti @ #174 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 1:31 pm
It’s Labor who is sacking staff and voting tax cuts for the rich.
Rex Douglas @ #177 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 1:44 pm
Bullshit one-liner from a habitual offender.
“It’s Labor who is sacking staff and voting tax cuts for the rich.”
Pocock doesn’t have any staff to sack, you silly Tory sod.
Pocock should try working as a Senator first – and using the gianormous resources available to him in parliament house before complaining like a silly private school twat.
Dr Doolittle @ #175 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 1:38 pm
Ah. Thank you. What he says is just what I was complaining about.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/06/two-party-swing-decided-this-election.html
They’re called election promises and ending rorts Rex. Sounds like you’re on the side of breaking promises and never-ending rorts as long as they’re your rorts.
I just read something I hadn’t realised till now.
Dutton has been telling the NSW Libs to get their act together with regard to pre-selections. Dutton is a Queenslander where there is no Liberal Party. Instead they have a LNP, controlled in the main by the National Party.
The Libs aren’t happy with this. Expect the development of a significant and very entertaining brawl that won’t be confined to NSW.
The way they are going the current incarnation of the Liberal Party will never govern this country again. Thankyou Scott Morrison and the christian right.
Rex his the High Deacon of the bludger Labor phobic stooge faction, Pi
The trips over west make total sense from Dutton’s perspective.
The current lineup is
Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, ACT, NT and Inner Brisbane are solidly left and likely to swing away from the Coalition with Dutton’s ascendancy
Regional NSW, regional Vic, regional Qld, outer Brisbane contribute a decent number of seats to the Coalition, and are likely to stay safe in 2025 with Dutton.
There are two potential places that a Dutton led coalition will be targeting for seats. Seats that Labor won, where Dutton need not be a liability. Tasmania (1 seat) and WA. WA represents Dutton’s best hope of gaining seats in 2025, putting Labor into minority government and allowing Dutton to claim he deserves another chance in 2028.
Labor won WA for a number of reasons, but McGowanMania was a huge portion of it. ScoMo’s cavedweller nonsense and generally misreading the room on McGownMania is another huge part of it. That will probably have died down to some degree by 2025. Like Qld outside of inner Brisbane, WA is ripe for a carbon price scare campaign.
If Dutton could win back the 5 seats they lost in WA and gain one in Tassie (and hold all other seats), that puts numbers at 72 Labor, 64 Coalition, 4 Greens, 11 others.
On those numbers, Labor would still form a stable government, needing either the Greens or 4/11 independents. But those numbers might get Dutton a second chance for 2028
C@t at 1.05 re Ruth Bader Ginsberg…
I have enormous respect for RBG’s judicial legacy.
Strategically, I have concerns: by 2013, when Obama had a friendly Congress, she’d already had 2 bouts of cancer. She was 80 – not the oldest on the bench, but one of. Retire then and Obama could nominate a new justice. Instead, she continued serving until she died in 2020, allowing Trump to install Amy Coney Barrett.
Boerwar @ #134 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 12:25 pm
Only people who do not follow climate science would think that 43% is an adequate target. It isn’t – 43% means you are ok with 2 degrees of warming, or – for Australia – even more. It is also unlikely we will even come near 43% given all the new fossil fuel extraction Labor is in favor of.
Whatever you think of the Greens and the Teals, at least their policy positions are in keeping with the science. While I don’t think they will vote against Labor’s policies (assuming Labor actually puts forward any policies – at the moment they seem quite happy with the status quo), I do think they will seek to amend them, and/or put up additional and more ambitious policies of their own. Which is precisely what they were elected to do.
Would you expect Labor to vote for or against these?
“those numbers might get Dutton a second chance for 2028”
Can you imagine how … cadaverous … Dutton will look by 2008?
Oh look, Princess Rapunzel of the Labor phobic stooge faction has clicked on with her dishonest conflation of the “climate science” and Australian emissions reduction targets.
‘Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 1:55 pm
….
On those numbers, Labor would still form a stable government, needing either the Greens or 4/11 independents. But those numbers might get Dutton a second chance for 2028’
———————————————
They would have to get rid of Bandt before then. Based on his erratic behaviour during and after the election there would be little real prospect of stability.
A E at 2.08 re P1 and ‘climate science’…
Don’t P1/Greens insist science requires 75% emissions cuts? The only figure I’ve heard from Teals is 60% – substantially short – but no criticism from P1. Teals aren’t Labor, after all.
Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 1:55 pm
The trips over west make total sense from Dutton’s perspective.
The current lineup is
Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, ACT, NT and Inner Brisbane are solidly left and likely to swing away from the Coalition with Dutton’s ascendancy
———————-
There’s no evidence to support the idea that inner city areas are solidly left so sure they might sound left wing but how much of that is the Liberal’s branding everything left wing but they are not that left wing at all.
Not interested in the hot-takes of LNP voters on ALP climate policy P1. You had nine years to implement your policies and you did nothing. Time to sit this cycle out and take notes while the grown-ups do the heavy lifting.
Zali said 50% minimum.
But yeah Independents aren’t arguing for a “science” based target either.
A E, Socrates, imacca, Cronus and any other submarine-watchers (like the ironic term?)…
I have an historical curiosity re non-nuclear ‘Air-Independent Propulsion’ (AIP.)
The Swedes were its practical pioneers, converting a couple of subs in 2003/04 by inserting a 12m hull section (the boats were originally 48.5m long!) containing a Stirling engine plus oxidiser so the boats could patrol submerged at ‘silent’ speeds of 3-5 knots not for several days as was then normal, but 2-3 weeks.
My curiosity is that it took anyone so long to combine Stirling engines (a 200-year-old technology) with submarines, especially as, since 1945, everyone has regarded being submerged as long as possible as being essential to survival.
I acknowledge nuclear power was the big thing post-WW2, but many countries continued developing diesel boats. It seems to have taken the submarine community 50 years to join various dots and produce really quiet non-nuclear boats that can run silent for a really long time.
Did no one think of Stirling engines before the Swedes?
It’s Labor who is sacking staff and voting tax cuts for the rich.
@ Rex Douglas
Its amazing Rex your going all in to defend a Morrison’s government legacy where the additional advisers provided on their staff was a strategy of buying off the crossbench.
Seriously, this was a misuse of tax payers dollars all in attempt to get in favour of the crossbenchers. And the crossbenchers have essentially admitted this by suggesting they will return fire by voting against the Albanese government’s legislation.
@mexicanbeemer – Sure, I was a bit shorthand there.
There are plenty of right wing people in cities. But, currently, they are voting for the teals instead of the Liberals.
Action on climate change is not inherently left wing. See Merkel or Johnson.
Stopping corruption is not inherently left wing either.
Many right wing people/parties want women treated well.
The Teals are right wing.
So, yeah, my post was wrong. The cities aren’t voting left. They’re voting “not the Liberals”.
There is nothin gthat makes me believe Dutton can reclaim central Brisbane from the Greens where ScoMo failed. There’s nothign that makes me think Dutton can take seats back from the Teals. And I see no reason why Dutton can take the suburban seats ScoMo wanted to take from Labor in Sydney, Melbourne And Brisbane.
But I do see it as possible, if he plays it well, that Dutton could reclaim seats in WA and gain a seat in Tas.
Come on Catherine , you’ve pointed to a symptom now name the ‘pathogen’ 😆
.
Catherine Birch, a senior ANZ economist, has crunched the numbers.There’s a long list of blame for the soaring energy costs, …..“But an underlying issue is the lack of coherent energy and climate policy in Australia for the past several years which has undermined investment in the energy sector,” Birch said.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jun/27/australia-news-live-update-albanese-madrid-nato-summit-crossbench-health-economy-victoria-nsw-qld-labor-coalition-dutton#top-of-blog:~:text=including%20coal%2Dfired-,power,-plants%20being%20subject
I love art. For me, Jansen’s work is up there with Escher’s. It’s intricate, arresting, and thought provoking.
From Jansen’s Wikipedia entry:
McCartney & Lennon live at Glastonbury last night: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=g4UsXksoGNg