Still nothing from Newspoll; the fortnightly Essential Research should be along this week, but may not tell us anything too exciting if it’s still holding off on resuming voting intention; and who knows what Roy Morgan might do.
Recent news items relevant to the federal sphere and within the ambit of this site:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Liberal plans to get Josh Frydenberg back into federal parliament, which one party source rates as “only a matter of how and when”. However, finding a vehicle for his return is a problem with no obvious solution. While some are reportedly urging him to win back Kooyong, another Liberal is quoted saying an infestation of sandals and tofu in Hawthorn means the seat is now forever lost. Another idea is for him to win Higgins back from Labor, supposedly an easier task since Labor will receive weaker preference flows than an independent. There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan. Suggestions he might try his hand on the metropolitan fringes at La Trobe and Monash are running into concerns that he might go the way of Kristina Keneally. Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.
• The Australia Institute has published results from a poll of 1424 respondents conducted by Dynata from the day of the election on May 21 through to 25 which found 86% agreed that truth in political advertising laws should be in place by the time of the next election, with little demographic or partisan variation. Sixty-five per cent said they had been exposed to advertising they knew to be misleading at least once a week during the campaign.
• A further study by the Australia Institute found that Labor led the field on social media advertising with expenditure of more than $5 million, after its 2019 post-election review found its social media strategy had been lacking. The Coalition collectively spent around $3.5 million and the United Australia Party $1.7 million.
Election analysis tools:
• Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic has developed a three-pronged “pendulum” to deal with the limitations of the traditional Mackerras model, which entirely assumes two-party competition. Labor, the Coalition and “others” each get a two-sided prong, with margins against the other two recorded on opposite sides.
• David Barry again provides Senate preference calculators that work off the ballot paper data to allow you to observe how each parties’ preferences divided among the various other parties, which you can narrow down according to taste. The deluxe model involves a downloadable app that you can then populate with data files, but there is now a no-frills online version that is limited to above-the-line votes.
• Andrew Conway has a site that allows you to do all sorts of things with the Senate results once you have climbed its learning curve, such as conduct a double dissolution-style count in which twelve (or any other number you care to nominate) rather than six candidates are elected in each state (on a relevant state page, click the “recount” link, enter 12 in the vacancies box towards the bottom, and click “recount”. Its tools can be used not only on each Senate election going back to 2013, but also on New South Wales local government elections at which councillors were elected under the Senate-style single transferable vote system last December.
• Mitch Gooding offers a tool that allows you to replicate how you filled out your Senate paper and calculates exactly how your vote was chopped up and distributed through various exclusions in the count and which candidates it helped elect, if any.
‘Andrew_Earlwood leaving Albury says:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 10:46 am
Morning bludgers.
How is the Teal Snoutter campaign of our resident Labor phobic stooges progressing this morning>
…’
——————————–
De nada.
Probably time for Americans to start thinking about how they peacefully disaggregate before it gets bloodier.
”
Rewisays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 10:59 am
Probably time for Americans to start thinking about how they peacefully disaggregate before it gets bloodier.
”
I don’t know what ‘disaggregate’ means but probably it time for USA to split into Progressive and Repug states.
Usual belated thanks, BK. I note with disappointment the complete lack of attention our so-called journalists are paying to the implications of US turmoil for Australia’s national security.
We widely assume a US economic problem is bad for our economy.
How about we get to grips with: 1) even with an internationalist Democrat in the White House, the US is devoting massive attention to its internal problems; 2) the mid terms may well complete the hobbling of the Biden agenda; and 3) a Republican President from 2024 would be an ‘America firster.’
Can the commentariat not see we, like many other countries with actual, functioning deomcracy, might have to look to our own security – WITHOUT reliable US assistance?
The reproductive rights decision is part of the US kulcha war eroding Australia’s national security.
I envy France’s strategic independence. Charles de Gaulle turns out to have been right – at least about that.
As long as it’s not literally Donald Trump Again™, normalcy will return.
Andrew_Earlwood leaving Albury @ #95 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 10:46 am
I don’t think nath is awake yet. 😐
And in soccer news, a bigger come back than even Lazarus’ ? 😆
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/jun/26/gabriel-jesus-agrees-five-year-deal-to-join-arsenal-from-manchester-city
America wont dis-aggregate from an oil producing state. The tax revenue has increased.
Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.
I actually think Josh Frydenberg would more likely not to return to politics if that happened. The shine of Frydenberg would have wore off and some of his most passionate backers will have moved on. I think new prospects as alternative Liberal leaders will have emerged. And Frydenberg may not have the pull being out of the game so long to find a safe Liberal seat. I’m not sure having a significant spell out of politics would make it easier getting back his seat of Kooyong either if he went that route.
Mal Brough was also considered a future Liberal leader. But after he lost his seat of Longman and was out of parliament for six years it killed his momentum. And the shining light was no longer shining so bright even before the James Ashby affair emerged. And Brough was then only considered an afterthought.
I would agree that a first election for the Liberals in 2025 would be a hard prospect. But after Tony Abbott becoming Prime Minster I wouldn’t count the chickens before they hatch. But for all the cards to fall Frydenberg’s way he would have to look at leading the party to the election in 2031 at the latest. That is after two election losses and that’s a pretty shaky plan with alot of what if’s involved.
I have just logged in for the first time today, and noted that Steeldan said this at 3:38 this morning about wealthy suburban areas lost by the Libs to the Teals:
“These seats are no longer heartland. As I said most are saying good riddance.”
Is that truly the attitude of the Liberals to the electors in these formerly blue ribbon Liberal stronholds? LONG MAY THAT ATTITUDE CONTINUE.
Green light for coal royalty tiers
Progressive coal royalties in Queensland will commence on July 1, 2022, following passage of enabling legislation through Parliament without opposition.
Treasurer Cameron Dick said no member of parliament voted against the move, nor did any party express opposition to the substance of new progressive coal royalty tiers.
He said there were no votes cast against the royalty tiers from members representing the Liberal National Party, Katters Australian Party, One Nation, nor the Greens political party.
https://www.australianmining.com.au/news/green-light-for-coal-royalty-tiers/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
The jan 6 committee are not done yet with Trump and his enablers.
They have subpoenaed the documentary maker Alex holder and all the footage he took, pre election, pre insurrection and thereafter.
We live in interesting times.
On Frydenberg and his future career options:
“Joe Aston@mrjoeaston · 15h
Former somebody @JoshFrydenberg approached the AFL Commission about Gill McLachlan’s job, not the other way around. Surprise, surprise… https://joeas.tn/3ODK1o0”
Surprising Josh needs to work again so badly after 9 years in Cabinet. He should be a wealthy man. I imagine many in the private sector would be delighted to pay handsomely for Josh’s skills now. So popular amongst his fellow Victorians too.
Re Mick Quinlivan at 10.20 am
The obvious seat is La Trobe. Not Higgins; Libs may have lost that for an eternity. Margin in La Trobe is 8.7%. Margin in Monash is 2.9%. Problem for Joshy-bump-me-back-into-parliament is not his wounded ego or his non-mindfulness, but that the incumbent in La Trobe may be hard to shift as he backed Dutton in 2018 and no doubt thinks he chose right.
Did Josh create the buzz about the AFL job?
https://www.facebook.com/100181508346876/photos/a.101005561597804/571385311226491
EDIT: snap – Socrates
Josh won’t run in Kooyong again. Steely says the Libs are glad to be rid of those sandle wearing tofu eating wastes of space. Presumably they don’t need their donations either.
Far richer picking in the outer suburbs that are full of lower paid battlers who glean their political views from facebook.
Steve
Yes exactly. The lack of corporate interest in Josh is unsurprising. What has he ever done outside of politics?
I’m not saying Josh is unemployable, but far too many Ministers imagine they could actually earn $400K outside of politics based on their skills, rather than their connections. Most can’t.
A headline from The Grauniad. It appears yet another msm outlet all aboard , Inflation= all the workers’ fault.
Well of course, it’s us greedy workers eh ? Let’s have a look at a couple of numbers. First the numbers for those greedy inflation causing serfs..
https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/annual-wage-growth-24#:~:text=The%20rate%20of%20annual%20wage,rate%20recorded%20since%20December%202018.
Meanwhile over at the ‘victims’ of the greedy serfs. a lazy +28% increase.
”
a rsays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 11:09 am
3) a Republican President from 2024 would be an ‘America firster.’
As long as it’s not literally Donald Trump Again™, normalcy will return.
”
No it won’t. The US as we know and trust is done. We will see Russianisation of America.
Atleast there is some hope for Russia if Putin dies in near future.
”
Political Nightwatchmansays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 11:27 am
Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.
I actually think Josh Frydenberg would more likely not to return to politics if that happened. The shine of Frydenberg would have wore off and some of his most passionate backers will have moved on. I think new prospects as alternative Liberal leaders will have emerged. And Frydenberg may not have the pull being out of the game so long to find a safe Liberal seat. I’m not sure having a significant spell out of politics would make it easier getting back his seat of Kooyong either if he went that route.
”
But Liberal party founder, who held Kooyong till he quit politics, was also in wilderness after he quit as PM during WW2. Then he formed a new party (which AE calls it a scam, I digress) and rest is history. 🙂
Time will tell…
Zoomster
Well said about the mistake the Liberals are making. There has been a lot of debate about the role of unions in the ALP but by keeping that relationship the ALP has kept some form of base and by not winning the teal areas and Indi and Mayo the Liberals could have lost 1954 1961 1969 1998 2016 2019 2022.
Ven
LOL I don’t think we ‘know’ the USA much beyond the tv ,Hollywood and MSM versions we are fed daily. Trust, the nature of ‘800lb gorilla’ nations, since forever, is you can’t trust them beyond their own perceived national self interests.
Seems the Vic Libs don’t have the confidence to parachute Josh in as leader to take on against Daniel Andrews.
But Liberal party founder was also in wilderness after he quit as PM during WW2. Then he formed a new party (which AE calls it a scam, I digres) and rest is history.
@Ven
Robert Menzies was never out of parliament between his two tenures as Prime Minster. I think your drawing a very long bow and your point is rather irrelevant.
Yep. Funny that.
Eric Garland
Isn’t it strange that billionaires in bed with foreign governments are curiously opposed to taxes while attacking the validity of American elections? https://t.co/zG9BKX76Ce
Rex douglas
Josh Frydenberg from Victoria. But not for Victoria.
”
porotisays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 12:07 pm
Ven
know and trust
LOL I don’t think we ‘know’ the USA much beyond the tv ,Hollywood and MSM versions we are fed daily. Trust, the nature of ‘800lb gorilla’ nations, since forever, is you can’t trust them beyond their own perceived national self interests.
”
True poroti
But it is a fact Australia (including this current government) did/do trust USA with its National security. They continuously paid for Insurance premium in the form of going to wars with USA after WW2 even though those wars have nothing to do with Australia national security. Nothing other country other than Australia went to all the wars with USA after WW2. Not even America’s closest allies like UK, Germany, France. For Australia, it is all the way with USA.
Victoria @ #127 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 12:15 pm
He’s just a Liberal.
”
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 12:11 pm
Seems the Vic Libs don’t have the confidence to parachute Josh in as leader to take on against Daniel Andrews.
”
I think they should try that. What is there to lose. QLD LNP tried with Cando Newman. So why not Josh. 🙂
They can give Tim Smith seat to Josh.
Something needs to change if the only institution to stand up for workers wages is the ACTU.
RBA boss should be sacked.
I agree that the LNP is unlikely to make gains in 2025. Around about then the outcomes of a couple of Royal Commissions will be well known as well as evidence given at various FICAC hearings.
Don’t forget that Dutton has significant questions to answer around the awarding of massive contracts for management of overseas facilities and that will be just another reason for the Libs to dump him. The ladies might well be very annoyed by then also. Right wing religious loons are taking over the Liberal Party and some are silly enough to parrot their desire to replicate happenings in the USA and this coupled with potential evidence at the regularly delayed rape trial about cover ups and evidence distruction should cement the Teals into their seats, and provide a couple more lower house and senate seats for the progressives.
Frydenberg will be 51 in a few weeks. Many people that age find the job market challenging.
Unlike many men and women regarded as unemployable by business he is likely to find a few mates somewhere to throw him a bone or two with a directorship or some consulting.
Then they’ll find out what most of us suspect. He’s useless.
‘Jon “Semi-Fungible Airships” Kudelka
@jonkudelka
·
2h
Labor partisans desperately hoping for the indies to vote against some shit legislation so they can have another “greens didn’t vote for the cprs in 2009” mantra as an excuse for failure for the next couple of decades. ‘
————————————
The cartoons are about as funny as this statement.
Labor will implement a set of policies to deliver 43% by 2030.
If the Greens vote against those policies then indeed the Greens will have to be accountable.
Ven @ #130 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 12:19 pm
Josh is an over-rated dud.
I think even the Libs are quietly starting to concede that.
Andrews would tear him apart in debates.
“ Justice Clarence Thomas argued in a concurring opinion released on Friday that the Supreme Court “should reconsider” its past rulings codifying rights to contraception access, same-sex relationships and same-sex marriage.”
Be under no illusions as to length, breadth and intent of the initial decision to overturn Roe v Wade.
I note too the intentional ambiguity by the three recent conservative judicial appointments to the Supreme Court when asked during nominations about their intent re Roe v Wade. To all appearances, the nominees misrepresented their true true intent regarding this issue. The judges clearly implied (via reference to precedence and stare decisis) that they would not overturn such decisions.
America knew it couldn’t trust many of its politicians but now they can add Supreme Court Judges to that list. Now they have a very serious credibility issue that should concern Americans regardless of their politics. These three recent appointees have perhaps fatally undermined the appointment process. Who again will ever believe what is said by nominees?
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256
2025?
Far too soon to say.
Rex Douglas @ #121 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 12:06 pm
Zero respect for Jon Kudelka who puts Liberals above Labor when he votes.
Dutton is Frydenberg Lite.
Cronus,
There is only one historical SCOTUS Ruling Clarence Thomas won’t touch: Loving V Virginia. Because he’s a, do as I say, not as I do, Supreme Court judge.
Frydenberg has shown no interest in state issues.
Maureen Dowd NYT…
Biden, wasting a Democratic Senate majority, allowed ( Thomas) a liar, a pervert and a sexual harasser to be elevated to a lifetime seat on the court.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-radical-reign-of-clarence-thomas-20220626-p5awon.html
Maureen is certainly putting out there .. relying on Truth as a defence…
Anyone else finding Dutton’s behaviour a bit bizarre? Having little local ‘meet the people’ events and making election style pledges for pension increases, Veteran Affairs etc…
Does he realise the election has been run…and lost? That people have now switched off for 2 years? That any promise/policy announced now means nothing by 2025? Does he think he is somehow pressuring the Govt that doesn’t need his numbers at all?
Its all rather impotent and pathetic. It is almost like he doesn’t know what to do in opposition, or hasn’t accepted it.
Tim Smith’s new persona seems to be as a gaslighter, like Malcolm Roberts.
Amazing the depths these types will sink to just to be noticed.
He’ll probably con enough people to sneak into the Vic upper house.
Ven at 12:16 pm
It was a pretty seamless slide from being under the British Empire umbrella to the American Empire’s umbrella. There doesn’t seem to be a friendly ‘800lb Gorilla’ alternative if/when the US Empire fades .
Check out the leaders of countries in our region who attended what they called a BRICs+ meeting recently, hosted by Bad Vlad: India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand. Points to us needing to do some nimble diplomatic footwork in the coming years. Thank jeebus Scotty and his Coalition fog horn diplomacy have been given Teh Boot.
(Paul Karp The Guardian)
The United Australia party’s new senator has accused Labor of “pumping the brakes” on the crossbench’s ability to scrutinise the government by cutting their staff.
Ralph Babet, the Victorian senator, has called on Anthony Albanese to review the decision, which the prime minister has doubled down on despite threats from minor parties of disruption in the Senate if their allocation is not increased.
On Friday, Labor revealed that crossbench parliamentarians will receive just one additional adviser, down from four under the Morrison government, prompting One Nation and senators Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock to threaten to delay government bills.
Babet said:
Cutting independent and minor party parliamentary staff allocation by 75% will make it very difficult for us to be able to do our jobs effectively.
The prime minister is essentially pumping the brakes on our ability to scrutinise the government and the legislation they may propose. We call on the prime minister to review his decision.’
————————————————–
Here’s another XBench darling for P1 and Rex to moon over.
In one fell swoop he went from ex real-estate agency to the Royal ‘we’.
The poor bastard will have to get by on five staff and the full resources of, for example, the Parliamentary Library. My view is that he may also actually have to do some work himself.
But then Senator-elect may not actually need to know what is says in any particular Bill to know what is in any particular Bill. He has a sort of extra sensory perception when it comes to divining the truth:
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2022/06/20/senator-ralph-babet-victoria/
From Alan Moir
I don’t mind Dutton suggesting that pensioners be allowed to work an extra couple of days without affecting their pension entitlements.
One of the hallmarks of good policy is that cost and budget are included in the consideration.
So really, he ought be getting one of his numerous staff to do the numbers on what that will do the tax base in terms of revenue foregone.
Otherwise people will suspect he is just like the Xbenchers: all piss and wind and no hard numbers except when it comes to counting to four.
Torchbearer at 12:35 pm
As a Sandgroper the strangest thing is his visits. Two visits already, ‘normal’ here is largely being ignored by pollies ‘from over East’ 🙂 . Not sure what he is hoping to achieve here. Begging for money ? Winning the hearts and minds of we Cave Dwellers ?
C@tmomma says:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 12:29 pm
Cronus,
“There is only one historical SCOTUS Ruling Clarence Thomas won’t touch: Loving V Virginia. Because he’s a, do as I say, not as I do, Supreme Court judge.”
So true C@T, he’s hypocrisy writ large.
And again none of this broader issue does anything for the Christian Conservatives with regard to their claims to truth and honesty. The depth of their dishonesty and craven behaviour does inestimable damage to their brand.